The EU was busily influencing Ukrainian opinion and politics , encouraging a pro Western line working towards EU membership. The 2014 revolution and change of Ukrainian leadership forced out a more pro Russian President and brought in a pro EU President. Putin seized the Crimea , claiming it was a very pro Russian region that should never have left Russia.
This left the south eastern provinces where there was also a larger pro Russian population. Civil war broke out with Russians encouraging secessionists. The pattern of behaviour was similar to Russia’s action in Georgia to detach South Ossetia and Abkhazia . In Moldova Russia seeks to control Transnistria. Belorus is governed by allies of Putin. To the west this is a war of Russian expansion, as Putin seeks to reunite old parts of the USSR. He claims he is supporting and assisting populations who wish to be independent of Georgia or Ukraine or Moldova as they look towards the EU but uses force to back up his claims. The West sees Putin as an aggressor seeking to gain territory by violent conquest. Whilst they wish to stop him they have understandably not wanted to go to war themselves with Russia. Ukraine has been fighting the war whilst trying to get more help from the US and EU.
To Russia the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine should belong to Moscow. They claim there are people in those parts of Ukraine especially in Crimea that want to be governed by Russia. They see it as a war against EU expansion with the EU offering membership to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, to push its borders closer to Russia. Russia does not distinguish between expanding borders by military action and expanding them by government decisions in the way the West does.
It is most important if there is a peace Treaty or ceasefire in Ukraine with the current front lines as a new border that the UK leave the task of policing that border to the EU.It becomes an EU border as soon as Ukraine membership of the Union is confirmed.
February 17, 2025
This seems to be a balanced appraisal of reality. If Donald Trump, in talking to Putin, manages with Zelenski’s support, to do a deal as he would put it, all credit to him. The EU should back away from any expansionist ambition and concentrate on getting its own house in order. Vice President Vance gave some credible advice on how this might happen.
I too see no need for the UK to get involved as part of a peace keeping force. Labours intention to be involved requires clarification. After a peace treaty and the establishment of new borders I would say maybe. Before such an absolute no.
If Labour are to be anything but an irritant in UK political history there is much they need to do at home before venturing to Ukraine. The sooner two tier gets his butt over to Washington to be appraised of the new order in the democratic world the better.
February 17, 2025
The EU doesn’t have the resources to police Ukraine if there is a settlement. Starmer will be stupid enough to commit what small resources we have in the UK which like Gordon Brown in Afghanistan starved the military of equipment. We have very little ammunition and no budget to produce more, Net zero is seen as more important than adequate defence.
Russia will continue to interfere with our data and electricity subsequently cables and we don’t have the means to prevent it.
Vance was 100% correct in telling the globalists audience in Munich that they should protect themselves and not rely on the US taxpayers.Trump is providing the much needed reset and not the one the UN/WEF envisaged.
February 17, 2025
Indeed “Net zero is seen as more important than adequate defence” net zero is incompatible with a sound economy and/or sensible defence provision.
Still we have Rachel Reeves wittering on about battery aircraft for the new runway at Heathrow if it ever arrives and insane plans for ever more heat pumps, EVs, battery ambulances and fire engines. Where is the electricity coming from how will the inter-connectors to other countries and the offshore wind be protected. Zealot dope Ed Miliband doubtless wants battery rockets, tanks and missiles tool.
February 17, 2025
The BBC seem to think John ERM Major is some kind of wise elder statesman. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00282l8
He actually has a record of getting almost everything wrong over many years and burying the party for three plus terms almost as well as the equally misguided Sunak did. This usually delivered in a patronising manner as if talking to people even dimmer than he is. Needless to say he was not asked anything challenging by the BBC interviewer. Not even asked if he wanted to say sorry for his appalling ERM fiasco and his damaging wars with Bush and his many other disasters.
February 17, 2025
https://johnmajorarchive.org.uk/1991/11/20/mr-majors-commons-statement-on-the-european-community-20-november-1991/
“We can now plan for a European Community stretching north to the Baltic and east to the Urals–a Community that embraces the free market principles that are at the heart of the treaty of Rome. Such a Europe would be more than an economic entity. It would not only guarantee prosperity, but would underpin democracy. It would put an end to centuries of mistrust, suspicion and war. It would secure a lasting peace across the whole of our continent. I believe that that is a Europe worth building and worth making sacrifices for. That is the Europe for which I shall argue at Maastricht.
I commend that Europe and this motion to the House.”
NB – Approximately 77% of Russia lies beyond the Urals.
February 17, 2025
I look forward to seeing the first battery powered Chieftain in action. I guess it will have to tow a very large cable drum, in order to connect to the portable solar farm the REME will build somewhere out of artillery range. We won’t be able to fight at night of course but I’m sure the Russians will show some restraint and only try to kill our soldiers in daylight hours.
PS – According to John Healey, they are no longer soldiers of course. Our troops are now “Warfighters” even when we deploy them on peacekeeping missions I presume. Well I have another old fashioned expression for Mr Healey. It’s “What a load of old Cods Wallop!”
February 17, 2025
The much trumpeted move by the Baltic States to terminate supplies of electricity from Russia/Belarus a week or so ago is going well.These are now the electricity prices for Lithuania but they are very similar also in the other two Baltics:(MWh/Euro)
8 Feb-62.74,9 Feb-128.58,10 Feb-146.83,11 Feb 190.0,12 Feb-230.35,13 Feb-189.16,14 Feb-183.15,15 Feb-269.25.
February 18, 2025
A lesson in depending upon interconnectors. The ones from Russia and Belarus did keep prices down because that was the historic grid from the USSR. The new ones from Finland and Sweden have been damaged by anchors cutting access to cheap Nordic supply. So now they pay an EU price, bidding power away from Poland which is already topping up Germany during Dunkelflaute.
February 18, 2025
@ Lifelogic , It is perhaps ironic that you should mention ‘Net Zero’ as I fear it is connected to Ukraine’s sought after resources in rare earth minerals and the market for renewable energy.
February 17, 2025
Then again – We gave them(The Ukraine) our guarantee of security when they handed over the nuclear weapons to Russia….
Another World Treaty?
On December 5, 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state. The four parties signed the memorandum, containing a preamble and six paragraphs. The memorandum reads as follows:
The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine,
February 17, 2025
The nukes belonged to the USSR. They were never Ukrainian weapons. The successor state to the USSR is the Russian Federation.
We did not give them a guarantee that we would save them from crimes against humanity.
February 18, 2025
@Lynn Atkinson – That wasn’t the point , the point was another meaningless treaty ‘Ukraine, Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security’
Our Politicos call these International Law that must be obeyed
February 17, 2025
I’ve just listened to the latest news and I see 2TK has committed UK troops to a peace keeping force in Ukraine. U hope it had at least one division of channel paddlers. After ll, they’re mainly of conscription age.
February 17, 2025
@agricola +1
Unfortunately this Labour Government is closer to Putin than the British People. It could slide back under EU control and suggest that Putin should merge his empire. All command and control freaks that work against their people
February 17, 2025
I agree with you AGRICOLA , that Great Britain should not get involved in any fight over Ukraine, my long term wish is to see the EU go up in smoke before I die.
February 17, 2025
dont forget guys! Those poor soldiers who fought terrorism in Northern Ireland , were persecuted by Starmers mates ( human rights lawyers) and unprotected by the state they fought for!
Any person going to Ukraine could end in the same position !
February 17, 2025
@MFD – yup do what you are trained and ordered by your government to do and you will be in court for following the wishes of their personal ego. All UK service personnel are deserted and betrayed by the UK Governent
February 17, 2025
@MFD – so true. Anyone in the UK Armed Forces trained in that profession that then goes on to carry out the orders handed to them by a UK Governent will be deserted, betrayed and persecuted by the law the same people create
February 18, 2025
Yup. You’d have to be either incredibly stupid or very trusting to join the Army now.
February 17, 2025
+1
February 17, 2025
It is utterly shameful to accuse the EU of expansionist ambition. Countries join the EU because they choose to do so – there is no force or compulsion involved, in contrast to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Trump’s belligerence towards Canada and Greenland. The EU has a spotless record in never using force to achieve its ends
February 17, 2025
That’s right Lemming, no visible signs of violence with the EU! ):. It just tells countries to run a referendum to run an election again if they voted the wrong way. France, Ireland, Romania… Will Germany be next? Thank goodness we’re out of that criminal racket.
February 19, 2025
“Non-Aligned” in today’s world political language simply means “closely tied and obedient to Chinese and/or Russian interests. It’s happening all over but especially in the corridors of the UN and other supra -National bodies where China has accumulated massive influence and support, cynically spending billions on the process.
February 17, 2025
“It is most important if there is a peace Treaty or ceasefire in Ukraine with the current front lines as a new border that the UK leave the task of policing that border to the EU.It becomes an EU border as soon as Ukraine membership of the Union is confirmed.”
Agreed. I would go further and say leave any funding to the EU.
However, Starmer has stated British troops will be involved. Must be dispiriting for our forces to hear they are being sent to another pointless conflict.
February 17, 2025
Starmer reportedly wishes to be the bridge between the E.U. and Trump so some inapproporiate even dangerous U.K. involvement in policing borders post some war-ending settlement is very likely, to continue even after Starmer is made to look more ridiculous than he does now.
Despite the assurances you sought and received that Alan Duncan’s treaty signing exploits did not bind the U.K. to involve itself in Evil Empire wars and adventures, I expect such treaties to be used to justify our becoming embroiled.
February 17, 2025
@formular57 – Yesterday Lammy Foreign Secretary & Healey Secretary of State for Defence hit the media “They said the UK and Europe now needed to “do more together” to “share the burden” of security across the continent.”
EU Army, EU Integration. Add that to the destruction of the UK it would appear they are pushing for their new posts in the EUSR
February 17, 2025
In my view the Russians have acted in a similar way to any of the great powers, when their adversaries seek to surround and threaten them.
You say that “Russia does not distinguish between expanding borders by military action and expanding them by government decisions in the way the West does”. What if Mexico signed a military co-operation pact with China?
I think there has been no doubt about the west’s animosity and towards Russia and its desire to control Russian resources. Post soviet Russia wanted to join the western bloc, but was rebuffed. We have formented coups against democratically elected governments friendly to Russia. The USAID revelations are revealing more about our aggression.
The EU and UK have been eager to be involved in these US neocons’ attacks on Russia and its interests. The neocons are now out, we are near-bankrupt and Trump is seeking a three-way pact of world military hegemony (US-Russia-China), which leaves Europe to fend for itself.
I believe Russia wants what it always said it wanted; security (surrounding states to be friendly; NATO out of its back yard) and trade. That means we can’t “extend western influence” into its orbit, it’s an acceptance of realpolitik. That starts with leaving Ukraine alone, and letting the European nations decide their own foreign policy. We should normalise trade with Russia.
We’ll lose an arms race against Russia (it’s absurd for the puny but nuclear-armed UK to even contemplate it) and there is no need for one; we’ll simply hasten our own decline.
February 22, 2025
Russia has since glasnost always sought trade relationships, stable relations and security. Its fairly clear that certain western actors wanted outcomes which they desired.
The only border HMG should be PRIMARILY concerned with protecting and policing to the maximum of its powers is the UK border.
It does not . It will not. It defers to the EU & outside rule makers.
The UK public has never ever voted in favour of joining the EU, ECHR or voted for mass immigration or net zero.
We are not a functioning democracy under the uniparty.
Inconvenient elections & referendums it seems are now the norm to cancel and or rerun them until the right result is obtained. If that does not happen all manner of legal mechanisms and blob fudge take place.
How can we vote the controllers out?
February 17, 2025
Eurointelligence (often sympathetic to the E.U.) has on open access today on its .com site a very short article entitled “Another Munich? Really?” that explains why Europeans and the E.U. in particular are excluded by Trump from Ukraine peace talks.
It notes many commentors are armchair generals and offer only a “reduction to moral posturing” and:
” At no point have those who supported weapons deliveries for Ukraine present a costed plan of how to achieve victory. They were hiding behind red lines and the empty slogan that we would help Ukraine for as long as it takes. Not only was there no plan for victory. There was also no plan for second-best outcomes.
The armchair generals include the vast majority of people who attend the Munich Security Conference today, and who hyperventilate about issues whether Europeans should sit at the table. “
It opines that Trump is correct to exclude the Europeans for there would be no settlement with them involved, a point it asserts is recognized by Trump. It further explains that European criticism of Trump’s proposals is misplaced, not least as Germany itself vetoed NATO membership for Ukraine and that loss of territory in any deal is simply reflections the military situation on the ground, as always.
So much for E.U. power in the world of diplomacy. Obviously, Eurointelligence did not take account of Sir Starmer sliding in on his ass to ruin the day.
February 17, 2025
A fair description of the actions, from both sides, which led to the Ukraine conflict. It takes two to have a conflict and the EU/USA/UK are not innocent bystanders.
Ukraine was never going to win the war. It has lost a million or more citizens based on lies from the EU/USA and British Ministers.
Whatever deal Trump reaches with Putin and which is effectively imposed on Ukraine, we should not get involved in “policing” it. Under no circumstances should British troops be deployed to patrol a demilitarised zone and become the likely target for guerrilla fighters from both sides.
The EU wanted to expand; let the EU do the job …. and pay for it.
February 17, 2025
Lord Ricketts on Sky this morning mentioned it took 60,000 troops to provide peacekeeping for Bosnia-and a similar number for even smaller Kosovo.
February 17, 2025
Exactly-it could be argued that the Brexit vote was a NO by us to its expansion of the EU into Ukraine and other countries. Yet the EU kept on with its plans. Let them defend those plans. Starmer shouldn’t be pushing UK youth into dying on behalf of the EU. It’s not on. If we intervene now in this adventure we have nothing to gain and everything to lose whether Ukraine eventually joins the EU or not.
February 17, 2025
Putin may be upset about the peoples of the former Soviet territories wanting uncorrupted democracy like the West but I am sure every right-thinking person would agree it does not given him justification to invade anywhere because he is upset about that.
Hopefully the US can broker an appropriate peace settlement but it will still not stop Putin intimidating and needling Ukraine thereafter especially where he finds weakness. There should be a steadfast ‘peace through strength’ approach which is so strong he is deterred from ever invading Ukraine again and that is why Ukraine must be acceded to the EU to protect her. If the EU gets this right then Putin and the other aggressors of the world will know the West has the capability and grit to counter them and then they will be sufficiently deterred.
February 17, 2025
“Never let a good crisis go to waste”, and after all the EU now has a defence minister as well as a foreign minister:
https://commission.europa.eu/about/organisation/college-commissioners/andrius-kubilius_en#
so they might as well carry on to set up the standing European Army that they will be needing to protect Ukraine.
If we had stayed in the EU our government could have vetoed that development, but they wouldn’t have done so.
February 17, 2025
Ah – you mean double dealing liars like this? Germany and France were the guarantors of these peace agreements.
Angela Merkel.
“The Minsk Agreement of 2014 was an attempt to give Ukraine time. It also used this time to become stronger, as we can see today. The Ukraine of 2014–2015 is not the Ukraine of today. As we could observe during the battles in the Debaltseve area in 2015, Putin could have easily won back then. And I very much doubt that NATO countries would have been able to do as much at that time as they are doing now to help Ukraine,” the politician noted in December 2022.
At the end of December 2022, former French President François Hollande (who held the position from 2012 to 2017) stated that the Minsk agreements of 2014–2015 gave Ukraine time to strengthen its armed forces and “temporarily halted the Russian advance.”
February 17, 2025
Sir John,
The EU are having an emergency meeting today to discuss the Russia/Ukraine Emergency….Let us hope that the PM doesn’t take the nation’s cheque book with him or “One of the world’s most well off nations” (sic) will be even more in debt. I wish one of those PPE graduates would explain how a country up to it’s neck in debt, can be well off. I would say we are technically bankrupt.
February 17, 2025
The overwhelming view in the West – until Trump won the 2024 US election anyway – is that the war criminal Putin should not be allowed to invade neighbouring countries and attempt to conquer them by force.
This principle has been in place since WW2, when Hitler, another militarist dictator, argued that German speaking areas of Czechoslovakia should be governed by the NAZI party. Chamberlain sold out the Czechs for a piece of paper, attempting to appease Hitler by giving him what he wanted. The Czechs were not present at the discussions; it was a sell-out.
The parallels between Hitler and Putin, Trump and Chamberlain, 1930’s and 2020’s are striking, including Trump’s decision to kowtow to Putin’s demand that Ukraine/Zelenskiy is excluded from the talks.
If Biden had wanted to, he could have brought Russia to it’s knees by excluding it from the world’s banking system. Despite claims to the contrary, after three years of savage war, the Russian economy is in dire straits – inflation is 25% pa, Russian foreign currency reserves are now non-existent, there is no labour supply as they are all called up and in the army. Putin is forced into paying for Iran drones and N Korea artillery shells with Russia’s gold bullion.
Ukraine and the west hold all the cards in this conflict. Trump has failed to understand this and is allowing Putin to grasp victory from the jaws of defeat.
February 17, 2025
Keep your eyes tight shut. Ears too. Zelensky has been shouting that he has no troops, he needs 1.5 million new troops – and ammunition, and nukes, and then he will beat Putin …. In his dreams!
February 17, 2025
Thanks for the news from Planet Sakara. Meanwhile on this planet, Ukraine is losing soldiers faster than they can be dragged off the street, and losing ever more territory to Russia. NATO have tried their best with massive military supplies to Kiev, and state-of-the-art technological assistance, but has failed militarily. Russia’s GDP is growing according to international estimates by about 4% a year, while Europe’s is at best stagnant. Sanctions have done nothing to stop Russia, but have badly hit European economies. Some people (not you, obviously) have accepted this is the reality that has to be dealt with, and fortunately they are now working in the US administration. Thanks to their efforts, this murderous and unnecessary war will soon be brought to an end, and let’s hope it leaves people in the country they want to live in.
February 17, 2025
@ Sakara Gold “This principle has been in place since WW2” – although the League of Nations had a similar provision in its founding covenant of 1919 (Article 10) where members undertook to “…respect and preserve as against external aggression the territorial integrity and existing political independence of all Members of the League”.
Chamberlaine has been harshy and wrongly judged by history, as Dr. Roy Douglas explains in his book “In the year of Munich”. Military evidence showed a war then was not winnable, there was a chance that Hitler might mean what he said (some in the Cabinet refuted that), and it would have been exceedingly difficult to explain to world, Dominion and home opinion why starting a great war to prevent the Sudetanlanddeutsch joining Germany was worthwhile.
Should Putin have any further territorial claims in Europe, history suggests the U.K. would be best off confining itself to diplomatic protests.
February 17, 2025
On Friday the Daily Telegraph printed a letter from Air Commodore Michael Allisstone in which he wrote:
“Chamberlain is frequently and unfairly pilloried for his policy of appeasement, most recently in the wake of the mooted peace deal for Ukraine (Letters, February 14).
But Chamberlain’s policy was, actually, a prime example of realpolitik. As chancellor of the exchequer in 1936, he released funds for re-armament, despite his pacifist inclinations. As prime minister in 1938, he and the chiefs of staff knew that Britain was simply not yet strong enough to go to war with Germany, and that somehow time had to be bought. He achieved this at Munich, albeit at a terrible cost to the Czechs.
Thursday was my 92nd birthday; I lived through all this and, to my mind, Chamberlain is an unacknowledged hero.”
February 18, 2025
Happy birthday for last Thursday Denis.
February 18, 2025
His birthday, not mine!
February 17, 2025
It does seem a pity not to finish off Putin, but I suspect Trump’s priority is to send a message that the USA is no longer prepared to pay the price of peace in Europe when countries fail to stump up sufficient funds to support NATO. A trade war with the EU could be the final nail in the coffin for NATO, but the EU wants its own military force so I doubt it will care.
It begs the question why the UK should have to pick up the tab…..
February 17, 2025
The parallels are actually much closer to 1939-1941 when Germany,having swallowed up west and central Europe, advanced eastwards breaching the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreements by threatening the Black Sea littoral(Romania,Bulgaria) and the Balkans(Yugoslavia in particular).Bankrupt Germany took control of Austria’s gold reserves through the Anschluss and was handed,by the Bank of England, Czechoslovakia’s gold reserves.
Everyone knows the first two sentences of Churchill’s famous speech of 1/10/1939 but the subsequent words are the important ones:
“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia.It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma:but perhaps there is a key.That key is Russian national interests.It cannot be in accordance with the interest or safety of Russia that Germany should plant itself upon the shores of the Black Sea,or that it should overrun the Balkan sates and subjugate the slavonic peoples of south east Europe.That would be contrary to the historic life interests of Russia.”
So,actually,its not Russia that is behaving like the Nazis.
February 17, 2025
+1
February 17, 2025
Chamberlin came back with “Peace for our Time” – but there are some who now argue that he had little choice but to play for time. The UK had under invested in Defence (ring a bell?) and our armed forces were woefully unprepared to fight an invigorated Germany. But even so, lets put this in some kind of perspective.
Dunkirk was a miracle that could have gone so very badly wrong. The small boats rescued 338,000 BEF troops. Today we have an army of about 70,000 total (about half of them front line soldiers). The Navy lost six destroyers just during the nine days of the Dunkirk evacuation. The Royal Navy today only has six Destroyers in the entire fleet!
In the early 70’s my BAOR Division had 120 tanks, armoured infanty units and heavy artillery support. We were one of three Divisions stationed in Germany. Today, the Army has 148 main battle tanks in total and I very much doubt we could muster even one full Division with all it’s support logisitics.
So Munich may have been bad but ‘Paris’ might be worse. Starmer is apparently going to promise our support and maybe even boots on the ground. Perhaps the reason Border force is keeping all those rubber boats is so that we can go and collect our newest Expeditiionary Force from the beaches of France. Because when they run out of ammo in the first week of conflict they will want a ride home. They won’t need very many boats as there won’t be too many left to pick up.
February 17, 2025
Edward Snowden,not bothered whether Trump offers a pardon or not:
“I have lived in Russia for many years now.Most of my conscious life.My son was born here.We have Russian passports.But it is not about politics.I just want to say this.I can’t give up the best delivery service in the world,the cheapest connection.The delicious cafe on Shelepikhinskaya Embankment.My wife doesn’t want to go to have her nails done by incompetent American specialists.I love Moscow and I want to stay here.”
Dire straits indeed!
Moscow as the capital of Eurasia has been our prediction for more than the last ten years.Europe will just be theme parks, ruins and ghettoes.
February 17, 2025
Our friends feel the same. Moscow is simply stunning. The 7 (I believe) identical buildings are magnificent, I can’t believe they were built by Stalin, but they were. It’s huge, clean, safe, inexpensive and at time, breathtaking. Everyone is well dressed, no beggars.
St Petersburg is even better. So is Sochi.
February 18, 2025
And presumably not over-run with 3rd world welfare-claimants and criminals/migrants/terrorists.
February 18, 2025
Stalin’s Seven Sisters are stunning (actually they are all different but have a similar majestic impact on the skyline)but all the different styles and periods of architecture blend magnificently.Don’t forget Stalin also built the opulent metro with its sumptuous ‘peoples palaces’ stations
Take a look at the professionally shot ‘Moscow by Drone’ footage on youtube.
Mayor Sobyanin has done a fantastic job-and continues to do so-I looked at his plans for two new developments the other day-the old COMECON hq(iconic in a way but not attractive) and the Moscow State Circus building are coming down,the latter to be replaced by a building that looks like a giant spiked tartar helmet-perhaps overtly emphasizing Russia’s eastern re-orientation in the 21st century(Sobyanin is an asiatic Russian).
February 19, 2025
Be careful standing out on your balcony looking out at that wonderful Moscow skyline, Michel!
You never know when you might accidentally fall to the ground!
It’s evidently a serious risk these days…….unless, as I suspect, you are a Russian troll infiltrating this site.
February 17, 2025
Yet immediately we have Starmer openly offering our troops on the ground.
NO!
We are a third country now, and the EU cannot cherry pick where they do and don’t need us.
In addition to taking our money, Starmer will soon be risking British lives. This destruction of the country must stop!
February 17, 2025
UK ‘peacekeeping’ means numbers of soldiers and other ranks leaving the military due to belief we would be forced to act in civil war and naked Putin aggression tactics.
February 17, 2025
I gather Rachel Reeves’s spending plans going forward are based on the OBR’s growth prediction for the economy of about 0.8% this year. Since that is looking as dodgy as the OBR’s usual predictions, she will surely have to resort in March to either budget cuts or tax increases. She has pledged not to increase taxes, so she’ll have to cut budgets. How then will we be able to afford the cost of keeping say 10,000 ‘peace-keeping’ troops in Ukraine? Also, as was recently point out by an army commander, the need to rotate peace-keeping force members regularly would mean effectively tying down c. 30,000 troops or more on this project. Can we afford to do that? No, Starmer’s vanity project must be resisted.
February 17, 2025
She will use this as a “get out of jail free card” and increase taxes claiming that the unprecedented situation forced her to break her fiscal rules…
February 17, 2025
On your saving of £50Bn DOGE you could save about £2M with a quick release of Lucy Letby the convictions (15) are clearly unsafe this after a very quick overall appeal. She is a danger to no one. But doubtless the legal system will take 15 years or similar to correct these appalling 15 errors. No only did she not murder them no one did. Negligence and incompetence.
Also stop the net harm Covid vaccines still being pushed into the elderly and scrap the vastly expensive sick joke cover up Covid Inquiry too.
February 17, 2025
@ Lifelogic – you often mention the Letby case (that I have not followed) but I see some still doubt her innocence, even after the most recent evidence. I recall post verdict the police said they had found her diary entries that seemed to confess to some of the crimes of which she was convicted. Is this a matter to which we should attend?
February 17, 2025
You should indeed attend to it, F57, and you’ll find out in what circumstances Letby wrote those words. She was being encouraged to verbalise her worries as part of a counselling session. You didn’t know that?
February 18, 2025
@ R Grange – thank you. No, I did not know that, not following the case.
February 17, 2025
Starmer has already committed UK troops to police any such agreement, presumably so as not to upset his EU friends. But why on earth as part of a peace deal would Russia agree to EU/UK troops enforcing it ? They are the aggressors in his view. It would need to be some more obviously independent troops – India maybe ? Or dozens of other UN members who claim to be non-aligned in this context, let them step up.
February 17, 2025
@ Roy Grainger “…why on earth as part of a peace deal would Russia agree to EU/UK troops enforcing it?” – the troops would be present not as enforcers, rather as hostages.
February 17, 2025
I don’t think anyone is squeaky clean in regards to the origins of this hideous war. I wonder if enough was ever done to shorten the war or prevent it in the first place.
On one side EU expansionism which ends in states being run by a centralised body. This body paints itself to be a giving and caring enterprise, but cross it at your peril for it means to rule.
On the other side of the equation is Putin who claims only to be protecting Russian speaking people from discrimination. However, he means to influence and rule too.
I have over the years been accused of being a ‘Putin fan girl’ purely because I think he has made some very astute statements on world affairs, and at home has enacted some good things such as keeping LGBTQ out of the classroom.
I don’t however believe he is as benign as some seem to think.
Zelensky and Putin must stop the killing of their young men, let us hope this happens for all our sake.
Europe is in a big enough mess as it is because of those who mean to rule (as Vance rightly told them) and don’t need this ongoing war on the doorstep.
February 17, 2025
How about having another referendum?
“President Zelensky of Ukraine has called for the creation of a standing European Army.
Would you want our UK armed forces to become part of that standing European Army?”
February 17, 2025
Sir John, In my view you have worded another comment on the Ukraine-Russia war with Western Political bias.
Why don’t you say ethnic Russian Ukrainians instead of Russian speaking Ukrainians which is most Ukrainians.
Also a very important historical fact is that the USSR took Crimea away from Russia in 1954 and gave it to Ukraine. It was in Russia up to this date. Did the Russians living in Crimea have a vote on this – Rusexit ?
Why don’t you mention the Kiev Government shelling the ethnic Russians when they did not support the EU’s motivated overthrow of the Democratically Government in 2014?
We can all agreed it is illegal to invade another Country but that has never stopped the West. At least Russia was on the face of it trying to protect ethnic Russians. The Russians fight themselves and don’t use proxies to do the fighting for them.
February 17, 2025
+1
February 17, 2025
No Proxies? I thought Putin had imported North Koreans to fill his ranks?
February 18, 2025
Yes he needs to bring aliens in because 30,000 Russian volunteers a week is not enough?
February 18, 2025
Correct he has used a propaganda template but softened the edges so as not to look ridiculous.
February 17, 2025
We should not send our sons fathers to the Ukraine this would be a declaration of war to Russia
Send the Ukrainian men that are living in the uk to fight for their country
February 17, 2025
From my small contact with them, I think most Ukrainians in the U.K. are retired or are teenagers.
February 18, 2025
So all liable for conscription then!
February 17, 2025
The Kremlin doesn’t ‘claim’ Crimean people wanted to rejoin Russia, it points to the referendums held in 1991 and again in 2014 that showed an overwhelming majority voted to do that. Presumably you accept a referendum outcome?
February 17, 2025
Internationally scrutinised – not by the USA or The EU for obvious reasons. Nevertheless declared free and fair.
February 17, 2025
EU & Russia what is the difference between them? They could merge and both Governments would be in sync
February 17, 2025
Well the Russian government is democratically elected and the European Commission is not.
So a stumbling block.
February 17, 2025
Putin didn’t want to repatriate just the east of Ukraine back into his reformed USSR, he wanted the whole of it. Witness the column of armour headed towards Kyiv at the beginning of the conflict. His actions have been directed towards regime change, ousting Zelensky for one of his own puppets.
If Ukraine under its current government want to join the EU, that’s their stupid decision and no business of Putin.
What the west has to decide now is whether to continue to support Ukraine, in spite of its widespread corruption, with military assistance and run Russia into the ground, or cease their support and risk crumbling of the Ukraine front line with the Russian army then sweeping in with rape and pillage (Victorious soldiers so like the rape bit). Be prepared to receive large numbers of refugees.
February 17, 2025
Of course Russia initially tried to capture Kiev: overthrowing the far-right regime there was one of Putin’s declared war objectives. But NATO had prepared Ukraine better than the Russians thought, so without sufficient troops the Russians had to withdraw. However, that doesn’t mean to say Putin wanted to conquer and hold the whole of Ukraine. He knew perfectly well he would then have faced another guerilla war, financed and supplied far better than the Ukrainian guerilla movement that fought the Soviets until the early 1950s. I don’t see any reason to doubt what Putin said his war aims were: replacement of the ultra-nationalist influence on Kiev, a neutral Ukraine, and a big reduction of the Ukraine army. Territorial conquest and absorption of all Ukraine into Russia would simply have risked another Afghanistan debacle. I think we need to give the Russians some credit for learning from that dire episode for them.
February 17, 2025
This is one of the main reasons underpinning the war.
It is the practice of the EU to soften up neighbouring states with gifts and money so that they see how benevolent the EU is, before inviting them to become associate EU members. Once a member they find the benevolence gradually fades.
It was more than just EU expansionism and the threat of NATO on Russia’s doorstep that provoked Putin to invade Ukraine. There’s plenty of evidence to support the claims that Russian descendants in Ukraine were being targeted and killed by government authorised militia. This was the final component of the reasons for the invasion.
Just as Russia believes it has a God given right to secure borders, so the EU thinks it has a God given right to influence and control the whole of Europe, and beyond.
We now see the EU as a failed experiment, yet it still has ambitions well beyond it’s capacity to manage decently what it has. It has become the reason for future conflicts. There is no reason to bring Ukraine into NATO which is full of warmongers.
Let’s recognize that the EU played a big part in creating the Ukraine war, and we should ask WHY? What was it all about?
February 19, 2025
+1
February 17, 2025
There are many people in the UK who speak in languages originating in China, India, France and Somalia, including those who favour their home countries. That is not adequate reason for any of those countries to seize control of the UK; so far.
February 17, 2025
@Bloke – isn’t that what the 2TK and his team are facilitating?
February 18, 2025
Yes, whether intended or not. On its present course the powers of people from distant lands living within the UK could exert control without a sudden invasion of larger boats.
February 17, 2025
But on the Today show on BBC radio 4 on Saturday morning they had a retired army man on there and the discussion assumed that the UK armed forces would play a substantial role in Ukraine.
I kept asking the radio “why?” Why are we expected to send anyone to the Ukraine and why didn’t the BBC and this army man assume that we would?
February 17, 2025
I’d just ask why you are listening to the BBC.
February 17, 2025
Russia has never had any nukes aimed at Ukraine. NATO wants nukes on Russia’s border aimed at Moscow.
Storm Shadows have hit part of the Russian Nuclear Early Warning system. You think this is OK?
Based on the actions of Ukraine and its allies, you really believe that Russia to be the aggressor/ Even after it withdrew troops from Kiev so the Istanbul Peace Treaty could be signed without duress?
You think this is reasonable? If so, I am delighted that you are not at the negotiating table.
Russia will not accept the democratic will of the 4 regions which voted to return to Russia to be surrendered, or even part thereof.
The buffer zone is going to be HUGE because storm shadows were deployed. There will be no troops anywhere near the Novorussiya border.
Let Germany and the French defend the Polish border. That should allow Tusk to sleep soundly.
February 17, 2025
Sir John
In today’s Telegraph “Sir Keir Starmer has announced he is “ready and willing” to put British troops on the ground in Ukraine to enforce any peace deal”
He is ready and willing to ‘sacrifice’ under paid, under valued, treated like dirt people in uniform? What about sending the Civil Servants in the MOD, how about the well paid train drivers
I would ask who pays, and were do the troops come from. I suppose he could use the guys prancing around to please the tourists. The UK Government needs to get it in its head it doesn’t have an Army any more it has a small defence force brought out to help with flood prevention when there is rain.
What is left of the UK Armed Forces should strike, resign on mass. This Starmer creature wants to use them to appease his personal ego
February 17, 2025
I cant figure this Starmer Team out, they will do anything ‘but’ what the are employed and empowered by the electorate to do.
We have a UK Government that is there to manage the Country, manage the economy, manage expenditure. Yet they all want to flit around the World ingratiating themselves on personal ego trips. The Country doesn’t have the money/wealth (its bankrupt) to fulfil their personal ideological promises they are making.
If we just created an economy, the wealth first then maybe there is a case for talking about these things. ‘Job First’ personal ego and hobbies are for when you are on top of everything else.
Our MPs, our Parliament needs to get a grip, get everything they are paid to do sorted before anything else….
February 17, 2025
Russia’s foreign minister has said that Europeans “want to continue the war in Ukraine”,
Sergei Lavrov said: “If Europe wants to continue the war in Ukraine, then why would they be invited to the negotiating table?”
“Europe has already had several chances to be involved in a settlement on Ukraine,” Lavrov added, saying he did not know “what Europe would do at the negotiating table”.
Says it ‘all’ ego and self-importance from the impotent wannabees that Starmer thinks he is part of..
We need someone working with and for the UK People in its Government, not a bunch of egotist that think fluttering around what they personally think is the World stage of self-importance – what does it have to do with managing the UK?
February 17, 2025
Fred Fleitz told the BBC: “I don’t know what the purpose of this summit is.”
“The fact that European leaders are not involved is not an emergency. It seems to be FOMO – fear of missing out.”
“I think European leaders are simply throwing a temper tantrum that they’re not meeting with Putin today, that they’re not gonna be involved in meetings with Zelensky.”
February 17, 2025
After seeing news this morning of Starmer diverting attention away from his failures at home he is away again in Paris committing Britain to “boots on the ground” to the European Union!
Just like Blair he has not been helpful to our own Armed forces, rather like the reverse. The EU is just a joke and Starmer is their tool.
Charity starts at home.I
The EU pushed Ukraine ‘s hopes but didn’t send them enough to defend themselves. Now they complain Trump is calling the shots after America provided the bulk of costs so far.
February 17, 2025
But Starmer will want to be seen as ‘Leading’ the resistance to Putin, as reports are already showing.
February 17, 2025
Extraordinary, Sir John – your summary of the Ukraine business, good though it is on EU involvement, somehow manages to leave out completely all mention of Obama’s and Biden’s involvement in building up Ukraine as an adversary of Russia, not as a neighbour co-operating and trading with it economically, as Ukraine had previously been. Obama’s support for the Maidan putsch, and Biden’s support for Ukraine’s NATO membership were key moves in creating the current conflict. In fact, your summary leaves out any mention of America’s role in what has happened, not least Washington’s provision of some 80% of Western financial and military funding for the KIev regime. In my view, the EU was just doing Washington’s bidding while Biden occupied the White House, but is left high and dry now that Trump is in office and the plan has changed.
February 17, 2025
It was alway’s the same with the Russians even going back to Peter the Greats time they’ve had a chip on the shoulder about Europe – they tried expansionism af different times – the Near Russia idea – but that led to wars which they usually lost. Then their own big experiment for economic and political Union in the 20th century failed spectacularly and still they like to blame the West – problem for Russia is they have plenty of everything including minerals, oil, gas, farmland, forestry etc to make a real go of it but corruption and backwards thinking is holding them up as alway’s plus eight per cent of GDP for the military. For sure we’ll have to deal with them over the Ukraine peace settlement but agreed borders should best be placed along riverways and well known topography for clarity – we don’t want any more Transnistria’s either.
February 18, 2025
Russia has won most of the wars it has fought in its long history. How else do you account for its vast size and the fact that it remains the only great power in Europe(if not necessarily of Europe)?
Get yourself a proper history book.
February 17, 2025
Detailed timeline of UK military assistance to Ukraine (February 2022 to present):
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9914/CBP-9914.pdf
February 17, 2025
DC, Thanks for that.
February 17, 2025
“To Russia the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine should belong to Moscow. They claim there are people in those parts of Ukraine especially in Crimea that want to be governed by Russia”
Which could well be true, especially Crimea.
Putin however has been very explicit in that he wants ALL of Ukraine and thinks it’s rightfully Russia’s. Now we learn of interesting mineral deposits there, as well as all the good farming output, it’s just another reason to add to Russian expansionism.
Starmer wants desperately to get into EU good books (or just into EU) so he will most likely give quite a lot to them in return for very little
February 17, 2025
When did Putin EXPLICITELY say he ‘wanted all of Ukraine?’
Ref please.
February 18, 2025
‘Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us, it is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space’.
Please see the historically-based explanation given by President Putin on 21/02/2022 available on en.kremlin.ru ‘Address by the President of the Russian Federation’.
Did Putin EXPLICITELY say he wanted all of Ukraine? No he didn’t.
Can the long expose of grievances (some real, some not so much) against the ‘West’, NATO, the EU, the USA, … be construed as the will of reinstating the Russian Federation into its USSR boundaries, at least in its western borders? I’ll let the interested readers to decide for themselves.
February 18, 2025
He absolutely does NOT want western Ukraine-that he has made explicit.
Where do some of you people get your ‘facts’ from?
February 21, 2025
Is the long speech by President Putin himself not good enough a reference?
February 17, 2025
Far from keeping peace the EU caused war in Europe.
Britain is already at war with Russia since the deployment of Stormshadow missiles.
Putin is fighting an asymmetric war with us. Hacking, mass immigration, sabotage – ships in the North Sea.
February 17, 2025
Stramer and Labour trying to get on the World Stage?
From comments elsewhere – “When a politician fails at home they usually embark on some foreign escapade that also fails….and boy, has he failed at home”
February 17, 2025
I agree that any EU-Russia/Ukraine border should be the responsibility of the EU, given how their behaviour gave Putin the excuse (in his eyes) to invade Ukraine. Why should we have to underwrite their stupidity, no matter how much we may sympathise with the plight of Ukraine? Yet our floundering Prime Minister seems to think we could send troops. The UK was sucked into World War 2 when it was woefully under prepared and had to beg the USA for assistance at great cost? Will we ever learn?
I do have concerns about the formation of a fully-fledged EU military force fuelled by EU ideology. I foresee a future risk to the UK based on the history of Europe-based ideology (Napoleon, Kaiser Bill, Hitler to name the most recent aggressors we tangled with). That the EU should want its own military force rather than support NATO with sufficient funding (surely the cheaper option?) is ringing alarm bells with me.
February 17, 2025
Its like the UK, bought and paid for by the CIA.
February 18, 2025
See the USAID revelations!
February 17, 2025
“Russia does not distinguish between expanding borders by military action and expanding them by government decisions in the way the West does.”
There is a bit more to it. The West does not have clean hands in its dealings with Ukraine. The EU has meddled in its affairs for some time. First, when Ukraine wanted to be independent Merkel told it that was not an option, it must choose between the EU and Russia. She dismissed out of hand Ukraine’s treaties with Russia and long history with Russia. The EU funded and supported the Maidan rioters. The US Democrats participated. Poroshenko, the replacement for the ousted president, Yanukovych, was in effect selected and supported by the EU and US Democrats and he immediately signed the association agreement with the EU. Ukraine failed to make good on its commitment in the Minsk II protocol to give a measure of autonomy to the Russian speaking areas of the Donbas. Before that, as recounted in ME Sarotte’s thoroughly researched account of NATO’s Eastwards expansion both Ukraine and Russia were treated dishonestly by NATO. It is clear that nobody involved took seriously the security guarantees gioven to Ukraine in exchange for its giving up its nuclear warheads, which were amongst the most advanced in the Soviet/WP armoury. The priority then was to get them back under Moscow’s control for destruction under tbe SALT and Arms Reduction agreements. In that process Russia kept its word and played its part to the letter.
Then as Russia threatend invasion of Ukraine, Germany refused to send armamenrts until on 27 Feb 2022, with the EU it told Zelensky he could have them in exchange for his signing over the future sovereignty of Ukraine to the EU. The EU announced the deal as a watershed moment in its history. Never before had the expansionist EU stooped so low as it did in this Faustian deal. What Germany wanted in particular was control of Ukraine’s vast mineral reserves of which rare earths and lithium alone were valued at up to US$13 trillion. A bonanza for EU, mainly German, industry financed by international aid as recently announced by Von Der Leyen.
Whilst Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is clearly in breach of international law, it is nevertheless true that the West has done much to earn the distrust and hostility of Russia. But somehow it continues to convince itself that it is entirely blameless and everything Russia wants is to be denied on principle. Let’s hope Trump can sort out the mess. But one thing is certain. Ukraine will never get the independent sovereignty its brave people are fighting for. Instead it will be governed by a bunch of unaccountable foreigners in Brussels, who even now are planning its reconstruction for their own advantage to support EU Green Energy.
February 17, 2025
I should add that Britain’s support of Ukraine, unlike the EU’s, has been exemplary and altruistic.
February 17, 2025
Agreed, Sir John. Our policy has been nonsense from the beginning of the Russia/Ukraine war. You cannot win a war by fighting defensively, which is what the US, UK and EU have forced Ukraine to do. It is amazing that UK/EU leaders are all gung ho for war and criticise President Trump for wanting peace!
The UK should not be involved in protecting Ukraine’s new border. Let the EU sort it out as Russia is much closer to them than to us. Our army, air force and navy are not equipped to defend the UK because of years of short-sighted governments and MPs. So there is no way they should be put in the front line anywhere.
Defence is expensive, but Starmer/Reeves etc cannot grasp that simple fact!
February 17, 2025
Zelensky, at 37 minutes into the “Zelensky Story”:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m001zps2/the-zelensky-story
“Russia and Ukraine are truly fraternal peoples … wonderful people of the same colour, have the same blood”
February 17, 2025
The National Interest: The Ukrainian conflict is effectively over without Kiev’s participation. The Trump administration has concluded that hostilities can no longer continue.
Moreover, “the Russians have defeated Ukraine, which means Moscow has also defeated NATO.”
February 17, 2025
Although I lived through the Cold War when we were told that we could be wiped out by a nuclear exchange with only a 5 minute warning I have never been so afraid of the destruction of the UK as I am today. Putin may be evil but at least he appears rational. Our ruling elites are not rational which is why I fear for our country. Whether it be unilateral and unnecessary Net Zero, the allowed mass invasion (legal and illegal) of people with alien cultures who do not wish to integrate but rather turn the UK into clones of the countries from which they say they are fleeing, the pursuit of woke and DEI to replace meritocracy with diversity and to simply cause social disruption and disharmony, the giving away of territory and the rise to power of judges and lawyers who have used their whole careers finding ways to sabotage the UK, the country is certainly in greater danger than ever in my lifetime.
February 17, 2025
And then add to that irrational mix Vlod-the-Inhailer.
February 17, 2025
Richard
I too find all you describe and list, terrifying.
February 17, 2025
This war started because Russia objected to Ukraine joining NATO and it’s been Russia’s position for several decades. NATO in Ukraine is seen by Russia as an existential threat. America objected to missiles being placed in Cuba resulting in a serious crisis, yet when Russia objects to NATO in Ukraine America and Europe encourage conflict using Ukraine as their proxy. The 2014 coup in Kiev was inspired and to some extent funded by US State Department and CIA, witness Under Secretary Nuland’s taped conservation with her US Ambassador colleague deciding on the future leadership of Ukraine! This is when fighting started in the Eastern Provinces. In 2019 Zelensky stood on a platform of peace and Ukraine remaining neutral indeed 73% voted for peace, yet in April 2022 (weeks after Russia’s Special Military Operation’) following negotiations in Turkey tentative agreement for a ceasefire was reached with Russia on the basis of Ukraine remaining neutral and not joining NATO. Shamefully this was scuppered by Biden using our the PM as his messenger. The ensuing loss of life on both sides has been a tragedy. The failure to negotiate and understand the position of Russia and sit down and talk has been an abject failure of political leadership and diplomacy. Following the collapse of the USSR America has been developing a strategy to weaken Russia along its Eastern flank via EU and NATO. President Trump’s well orchestrated intention to stop the fighting is most welcome.
February 17, 2025
You make a very good and important point about it being an EU border not ours. It is also the case that sensible people don’t want to see Ukraine, a buffer state, in NATO. Therefore NATO troops should not be put into Ukraine.
February 17, 2025
I have no idea why Starmer is sticking his neck out like this about British army support on the ground for Ukraine especially with the forces understrength – you’d think he would take time first to build the army numbers before speaking out unless there’s some other reason.
February 18, 2025
Once again, The EU is being entirely unrealistic :
It cannot take on Putin’s Russia without at least a trebling of defence budgets and probably conscription. In any event, the war would be vetoed by Hungary and other traditionarily more cowardly states like Eire.
If the misguided meglamaniacs in the EU wants to offer membership to Ukraine, the border will become at least another 1200 mile one for Brussels to police. That should have no involvement from us.
I lived in Germany during the height of the cold war and even then, all the heavy lifting was done by the 100,000-strong BAOR, (remember those days ?), The Dutch and the Americans. Most of the time the latter two’s armies were high on Pot. As now, Germany’s contributions to its own defence was pathetic.
The only EU countries I would help defend today are Finland, Sweden, and Poland. All countries that make a proper effort to help themselves. The Baltic states cannot be realistically defended against an aggressive Putin and Macron’s France is certainly no friend of ours.
February 18, 2025
Once again, The EU is being entirely unrealistic :
It cannot take on Putin’s Russia without at least a trebling of defence budgets and probably conscription. In any event, the war would be vetoed by Hungary and other traditionarily more cowardly states like Eire.
If the misguided meglamaniacs in the EU wants to offer membership to Ukraine, the border will become at least another 1200 mile one for Brussels to police. That should have no involvement from us.
I lived in Germany during the height of the cold war and even then, all the heavy lifting was done by the 100,000-strong BAOR, (remember those days ?), The Dutch and the Americans. Most of the time the latter two’s armies were high on Pot. As now, Germany’s contributions to its own defence was pathetic.
The only EU countries I would help defend today are Finland, Sweden, and Poland. All countries that make a proper effort to help themselves. The Baltic states cannot be realistically defended against an aggressive Putin and Macron’s France is certainly no friend of ours.
February 18, 2025
“To Russia the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine should belong to Moscow. They claim there are people in those parts of Ukraine especially in Crimea that want to be governed by Russia.”
This is very odd isn’t it. Who owns what pieces of land. So if our politicians settle enough people from foreign lands into London, so many that TFL signs are being put up in Arabic, is London then no longer owned by England and the United Kingdom? If enough Irish settle in Northern Ireland is it no longer part of the United Kingdom. If enough Irish settle in Liverpool is it going to be claimed as Ireland in time?
I just can’t understand the direction politicians are driving us to?
February 21, 2025
Not only the politicians as clearly shown by the comments of some contributors here.