The Remain campaign latched on to a flimsy fifteen year forecast put out by the OBR of the possible impact of Brexit. They said our trade with the EU would contract, so our productivity would decline by 0.25% a year for 15 years because of this. It would mean a lower overall increase in productivity of 4% fifteen years out, as productivity overall would continue to increase.
This has now become the simple lie, retailed by Ministers of the government and Remain/Rejoin commentators that we have lost 4% of GDP from Brexit! There is of course no sign of our GDP falling 4% from leaving the EU and that is not what the forecast said.
Forecasting for fifteen years is a bizarre over reach, given the OBR’s usual inability even to forecast current year revenues and the deficit accurately. I would not try to offer a single figure forecast for GDP 15 years hence.
We do now know the results of the Brexit vote over nearly nine years. Far from our trade contracting, it has boomed. Our exports of services, the largest part of our total exports have boomed. Exports overall are well up in real terms . There is no sign of the export hit the OBR forecast.
It is true the weakest part of our growing exports is goods to the EU.That is because the big items included oil, gas, refined oil products and petrol and diesel cars. All of these are being deliberately cut back by bans and high energy costs and taxes as part of the net zero policy.
Meanwhile the OBR in its review of its productivity forecast has confessed service exports have done so much better than they assumed without formally revising the forecast. Why?
The truth is the UK has a productivity problem with its collapse in the public sector after covid which results from bad management. The government is busily forcing closure of some of our most productive capital intensive activities in its drive to stop fossil use.
These have nothing to do with Brexit, so stop the lie about a 4%Brexit hit to GDP which never happened.
October 16, 2025
Morning John
It’s a miracle our exports have stayed where they have seeing as we’ve lost the capacity to produce chemicals aluminium ceramics etc all in response to net stupid laws.
We are Importing oil and gas plus refined products as we no longer have facilities for refining.
We import vast amounts of electricity because of state vandalism of our coal fired stations and the list goes on.
Name one prediction the OBR had got right, not a single one. Gideon Quango needs disbanding as it’s a joke.
It’s a bit likevthe forecast of well paid green jobs when we become a green superpower. What few jobs there are , they’re in compliance with no added value.
Any problems caused by Brexit are miniscule compared to the destruction foisted on us by this Marxist government.
October 16, 2025
+1
October 16, 2025
Agreed Ian. UK Government policy has damaged GDP far more than the ONS prediction (fabrication?) for Brexit.
There is also Government action in response to Covid 19. The lockdowns, restrictions and loans have massively increased UK debt and destroyed public sector productivity. Why do these economic think tanks never try and quantify those losses?
October 16, 2025
A recent analysis of goods exports revealed that in 2024 the UK ranked below both the Netherlands and Belgium and only slightly ahead of Singapore. This is an astonishing but unsurprising outcome of decades of both Labour and Conservative governments undermining industrial activity through high energy costs and addiction to NZ policies. The consequences are extremely dangerous for the UK’s economic well being and sovereign capabilities in a rapidly world.polarising world.
October 16, 2025
For the forth consecutive days there is very little wind. Windmills generating 2.5gw and we’re Importing 15% of our electricity. As it cools down and the days get shorter our grid gets more precarious. I can’t wait for the extended cold spell we are due which will cause major load shedding. No doubt 2TK will blame brexit and rightfully so the last government.
October 16, 2025
I dream of a world where there’s no OBR, no IMF, no CCC …..scrap all quangos and get our government & civil service to do there job ……176 (650) quango managers earn more than Keir Starmer https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2005547/176-quango-managers-earn-more
October 16, 2025
@glen cullen- the OBR and Quango’s were invented in recent years because Parliament, it’s Government have decided that the civil service aren’t up to the job. One replaced the other in practice. That suggests elsewhere others have not got to the grips of thier own job of management. Do we need 2 people to do the same thing?
October 16, 2025
IW : “We are Importing oil and gas plus refined products as we no longer have facilities for refining.”
The refining facilities had to go as a result of the Finch v Surrey County Council [2024] UKSC 20 Decision of the UK Supreme Court ruling that scope 3 CO2 emissions must be considered. It is even a wonder that oil and gas companies still working in the North Sea have not yet been told to cease production immediately as a result of this judicial decision. But it can’t be long before it happens.
October 16, 2025
The decline in our manufacturing industries and the reduction in scale of our domestic energy industries has nothing to do with Brexit as Sir John has clearly stated. Those sectors are being punishingly supressed by the Government and the institutions it controls, progressing Net Zero policies. Those Net Zero policies were mandated by the EU. Our departure delayed by three and a half years after our decision to leave should have enabled sanity to be returned to energy policies in this country, but it didn’t
Instead, we had a PM in Theresa May so wedded to the EU doctrine on all things, she actually added Net Zero legislation to the 2008 Climate Change act, during leave ‘negotiations’ (sic). She did this knowing it would decimate the oil and gas industry, and weaken the UK. She did it as part of her policy to remain close to the EU and got that legislation done before she was eventually thrown out of her office.
Our meandering policy on energy ever since has ensured the punishment Angela Merkel said must be given to the UK for leaving the EU happened. That punishment has been delivered and continues to be, all thanks to Net Zero restrictions.
The other trading inhibitors are our ongoing alignment with EU laws and submission to the European Court of Justice when and if disputes arise between the UK and the EU. In other words, it’s heads they win and tails we lose. The arrangements we have signed into are structured so the EU maintains authority over us in trade disputes.
Four hour entry procedures for UK travellers at continental ports anyone?
October 16, 2025
@Rod Evans +1
October 16, 2025
Even The Guardian reporting that:-
Plug-in hybrids pollute almost as much as petrol cars, report finds.
Well actually they pollute far more than keeping your old car and more even than if you get a new car petrol car until you have done rather high mileage on low carbon electricity – plus we do not have any spare low carbon electricity anyway in the UK. Also even wind and solar are not that low carbon. Buring wood is higher carbon than coal.
Oh and CO2 is not pollution but the gas of life, plant, tree and crop food.
They also bring forward CO2 protection (as so much ENERGY is needed to manufacture the car and battery.
Other issues V expensive, rapid depreciation, short lived battery 8-12 years and reduced range performance each year, heavier so more tyre wear and particulates and energy needed to move it. Higher road wear, more expensive to insure, neads somehwere to charge it, charging can be slow and expensive. Less boot space, vitually valueless once battery goes, hard and expensive to recycle…
So just keep your old car going as long as possible is prob. best and cheapest or but secondhand!
October 16, 2025
Plug in Hybrid batteeries actually less less than I said as the smaller hybrid battery usually get more charge discharges!
October 16, 2025
UK’s recent productivity decline is entirely in the public sector – private sector productivity while far from outstanding is at least increasing a little. Public sector productivity is unlikely to have been much impacted by Brexit one way or another – the NHS doesn’t export to the EU for example, productivity there crashed during Covid and has not recovered, I suppose because Covid-era restricted working practices have been retained.
October 16, 2025
Even if UK labour productivity does continue to gradually reduce (and I believe it will) it’s got nothing to do with Brexit.
I notice from their report the OBR have revised net inward migration up from 129k / year to 350k / year. That will be a negative for UK labour productivity and consequently UK GDP too but that has nothing to do with Brexit. Indeed Brexit provided the opportunity to end free movement, thus reduce immigration levels, thus increase UK labour productivity (output per worker), thus increase UK GDP.
There are different ways to measure GDP and if we are looking through the lens of labour productivity we should use the ‘labour productivity growth accounting equation’ ie growth rate in potential GDP = long-term growth rate of labour force + long-term growth rate of labour productivity. Increasing immigration clearly increases the first component and thus transmits to higher GDP growth. However if it is excessive it will dilute the second component (labour productivity) and that will transmit to lower GDP growth. The net effect on GDP growth depends how excessive the immigration is. In the UK we have had excessive immigration and its negative effect on labour productivity has brought down GDP growth rates. As mentioned that has nothing to do with Brexit though and the OBR are wrong to be attributing it as such.
The lower UK labour productivity is the fault of this economically incompetent Government and the Home Office not Brexit.
October 16, 2025
It is blindingly obvious to anyone who takes a few seconds to understand that trading opportunities with the 85% of the nations which are outside the EU are far greater than trading opportunities with the sclerotic EU.
We should be able to trade freely with both blocs (EU and not-EU) but the EU is a protectionist cartel which is intended to load costs on anyone who wishes to export to its member nations. In the case of the UK, they want to control our entire domestic economy when only 40% of our exports are to the EU and are decreasing.
The Establishment never wanted to leave the EU and refused to do it. The Not-a-Conservative-Party stitched us up with a “deal” which was intended to make it possible to sign up to Associate Membership in due course, which Sunak moved one step closer with the Windsor Treachery.
Labour is simply regurgitating the old Treasury/OBR lies about the effect on our economy because there is no positive case for being shackled to the EU …. and even less for rejoining, whether as a full or Associate Member.
October 16, 2025
Off Topic.
Going for Growth, growth, growth?
The UK economy grew slightly in August helped by an increase in manufacturing output, according to the latest official figures. The economy expanded by 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics said, after contracting by 0.1% in July. The government has made boosting the economy a key priority and pressure is mounting ahead of the Budget next month.
Many economists have been warning that tax rises or spending cuts will be needed to meet the chancellor’s self-imposed borrowing rules.
October 16, 2025
Geoff Hoon appeared alongside Kwasi Kwarteng on Farage (GB News) yesterday evening. Hoon persisted with the view that the UK was losing 4% of GDP per year (!) since Brexit. He would not concede this was wrong despite both Farage and Kwarteng saying that our GDP performance had been better than France and Germany (and probably Italy) since 2020. These debates are so difficult to watch/listen to when the lies are so obvious.
October 16, 2025
We clearly watched the same nonsense from Hoon Colin … frustrating isn’t it? 🙂
October 16, 2025
It gets worse than that Sir John, Geoff Hoon was on GB News last night, insisting Brexit had cost us 4% per annum in GDP growth. He kept stating this, in spite of it being a clearly ludicrous claim. But if you keep repeating this nonsense, some will believe it to be true.
October 16, 2025
It really won’t matter much longer. If Starmer/Labour survive their full term as the government. We’ll find ourselves as junior members of the EU.
October 16, 2025
We have a government and MSM that no longer see lying as a problem, and not just about Brexit. Have we ever had a PM, Chancellor and senior government Ministers with so little integrity? Plus a complacent BBC and MSM who don’t investigate and challenge the lies, but happily promote them.
Brexit involved losers’ consent, and they have never given it. Let’s remember our current PM spent three and a half years trying to overturn the referendum result. Now he is trying to tie us so closely to EU rules and regulations that we will have to rejoin! The current situation in the Chinese spy trial suggests that the PM may also be lying about that. But it will come out eventually. Thank goodness for Brexit, even if it is an imperfect one, because of the cowardice of this and past governments!
October 16, 2025
Yes, the new team in No 10 in a continuation of its conference Mantra. Labours new Remain front man who now advises Government appears to be behind the push, to blame Brexit and Farage for the need to raise taxes.
From Guido “Insiders say the decision to blame upcoming tax hikes on Brexit is the brainchild of Tim Allan, the new Starmer spin chief, who is heavily pro-remain.”
Wes Streeting “It’s part of it. There’s no doubt that that’s the other problem we’re dealing with. I’m glad that Brexit is a problem whose name we now dare speak.”
Brexit was 10 years ago and Farage wasn’t even in Parliament. Parliament in not allowing Brexit is the only problem but it is nothing to do with tax. Prolific expenditure has created a tax situation, of the need for more money, NutZero which the OBR says will be a £800 billion tax we have to pay. We need an ‘economy’ an earning economy. Tax just removes money from the economy.
October 16, 2025
2TK says their will be no return to the EU! Given what has happened in the last 18 months of say one thing do another, who is prepared to believe that?
October 16, 2025
If only there was a Opposition in Parliament that supported Brexit, they could hammer Labour into the ground with this lie.
As we saw yesterday Farage is denied the right of reply in Parliament even when he is the target of abuse. What will the changes to proposed election law do, carry this on?
October 16, 2025
Well said Sir
The Chancellor remains in denial that she is responsible for the economy
Every interview its someone else ‘s fault
October 16, 2025
@JP – clearly removing money from the economy, putting up prices , the the OBR’s £840 billion of costs of NetZero to be funded by the already under pressure taxpayer. Has nothing to do with ‘black holes’ the borrowing growth, the Chagos funding, over inflation wage increases for State workers, train drivers and many more giveaways. As 2TK and now the lady from accounts tells us it is all down to Brexit and Nigel Farage and nothing else.
October 16, 2025
Sir John
It is well known that if you repeat a lie often enough even by innuendo some will start to believe it is the gospel, particularly with this rabble of a remain Parliament.
It takes just 6% of the electorate to change their mind for an election to be won or lost. The last election was only partially a contradiction of that rule, as what called its self a conservative party deserted their supporters so they stayed at home, they were disenfranchised.
So, encourage the repeating of the same lie, some of the muck will stick. As we know Parliament can repeat lies in many ways without challenge and there are many in Parliament more worried about their jobs than the truth.
October 16, 2025
Of course the OBR, part and parcel of the failing state, can’t even forecast month to month according to the current PM when explaining why the last Budget could not be decided until that last minute.
The suppression of the private sector by the state sector is the most serious consequence. The starvation for fuel is the cutting edge of their attack and we must remove that weapon from them by any means.
There is some good news. At the Global Atomic Forum Russia announced it’s plan to release the world’s first closed fuel cycle nuclear system by the year 2030. This Siberian project is described as a breakthrough for sustainable nuclear energy. It achieves “virtually the entire volume, 95%, of spent fuel to be reused repeatedly in reactors.”
President Putin said “This mechanism will ultimately make it possible to almost completely solve the problem of radioactive waste accumulation and, crucially, essentially resolve the issue of uranium availability.”
Nuclear energy is sustainable and affordable, unfortunately in the gift of our erstwhile allies against whom we are determined to wage war – if we can muster the power.
October 16, 2025
“Forecasting for fifteen years is a bizarre over reach, given the OBR’s usual inability even to forecast current year revenues and the deficit accurately.”
Clearly the OBR need to be replaced by the economists at the CCC. The CCC can predict GDP, growth, standard of living, health, the price of electricity from hydrocarbon fuels, nuclear or renewables, how well new technologies will perform and cost etc. not just 15 years ahead but even up to 25 years ahead.
October 16, 2025
The OBR are often as naïve and daft as the government, with forecasts that are way out of touch with truth. One wonders what they assess of deals with India, US, Ukraine, New Zealand & Singapore, much of which would not have been possible without the freedom of Brexit to choose and act.
October 16, 2025
Afraid politicians are now making so many statements so often that are simply untrue or one sided, that it is difficult to believe anything they say any more.
This is the biggest reason that Reform are capturing the polls, they may well be doing the same to a degree, but so far what they are saying, for the most part, is resonating with the public.
Huge government inefficiency, cost and waste.
Illegal and legal immigration seemingly out of control.
A Benefit system that is out of control, and which seems to encourage a refusal to even try and work.
The penalising of self sufficiently”responsibility and a traditional work and savings ethic.
Huge tax rises over the past decade, with worse services..
Failure in all Departments they control, pot holes and the state of our roads being the most simple obvious to be actually seen.
Prime Ministers and government officials travelling all over the World for meetings at great expense, when we have huge problems that need solving here at home in the UK.
Too many complicated laws being introduced, example, remote fines from road camera’s for minor offences.
Challenges and endless arguments over “free speech” with confusing (two tier) prosecutions and police action.
Plus too many other aspects to mention.
Our politicians certainly in Ministerial positions, have failed us for decades now, and the Public have simply had enough of their very obvious Party political spin and lies.
The Country is in a god awful mess, and more government control and ever higher taxes for them to spend is not the answer.
October 16, 2025
I watched the ‘Falklands Play (2002)’ last night on BBC, and my reflection was that Mrs Thatcher would never give away the Changos Islands …..especially when the chinese will take control of them via a backdoor deal with mauritius
October 16, 2025
Sir John – ‘The government is busily forcing closure of some of our most productive capital intensive activities in its drive to stop fossil use.’
Yet Rachel from Complaints says the Government she ar** lic** to are concentrating on growth.
Yeah right!
October 16, 2025
Oh Dear another major ‘off Topic’.
I sometimes feel like I’m whispering against the wind.
MI5 is contending with near-record volumes of terror investigations and fast-rising state threats, the intelligence agency’s boss has warned. The security service is operating in a “new era”, Sir Ken McCallum said in an annual speech, forcing the “biggest shift in MI5’s mission since 9/11”. He said state threats from Russia, China and Iran are escalating, with MI5 seeing a 35% increase in the number of individuals its investigating in the last year.
Sir Ken added that Chinese state actors in particular present a daily national security threat to the UK, revealing that MI5 had intervened operationally to disrupt Chinese activity of national security concern in the past week.
Addressing a row over the collapse of a case involving alleged spying on behalf of China in the UK, Sir Ken said the alleged activity was disrupted by MI5 and that it was “frustrating when prosecutions fall through”.
The government and the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) are facing questions over the collapse of the case.
Speaking about threats from state actors including China, Russian and Iran, the director-general said as well as methods of espionage, state actors are “descending into ugly methods MI5 is more used to seeing in our terrorism casework”.
State threats include espionage against the UK’s Parliament, universities and critical infrastructure.
October 16, 2025
“All of these [companies with products that the Supreme Court judges have ruled inadmissible because of their scope 3 emissions] are being deliberately cut back by bans and high energy costs and taxes as part of the net zero policy.”
The SoS for Energy Security & Net Zero has refused to publish details of his net zero co-operation deal he signed with China. And what else involving China has taken place of which we know nothing because it is hidden by a super injunction?