According to the Budget Red book the government will borrow £627.8 bn more over the next five years. 2029-30 shows the lowest additional borrowing as much delayed tax rises are meant then to come into effect, after the election. Do people believe that?
At the same time the government over the five years needs to borrow at least £675 bn to repay debt that falls due. In total the bond market will be asked to subscribe for at least £1300 bn of new bonds. No wonder our government borrowing rates are the highest of the advanced countries.
So why does the Chancellor say our debt is coming down? Why so much extra spending? Why does she delay the main tax rises she wants until after the next election? How long will it take to revalue homes to be able to impose the Mansion tax on some 3 bed flats in central London? How long to consult and legislate to impose a tax on using battery and hybrid cars?
Why was there so little comment in her speech on how to control spending? Why no proper discussion of the productivity collapse this decade in public services? Why no detail on how she will spend the £3.25 bn planned for AI in the civil service? Why no plan to control steel losses? Why no mention of Bank of England losses? The OBR has upped its forecast of those losses to £288 bn from Q3 2022, or £164 bn net of earlier profits.
The extra borrowing she plans over 5 years would mean at least £25 bn more in annual interest payments. So why does she go on complaining about the £100 bn plus the government is already paying each year to service the debt when she plans so much more?
She makes a great deal out of the fraud and wrong payments made under various covid schemes which Labour supported at the time. She is finding it difficult to get the money back. Instead of implying this was some unique incompetence of a former government, she should see the latest figures for the annual loss on benefit fraud and overpayments, running at around £10 bn a year on her watch. Why doesn’t she stop that if if stopping fraud is as easy as she thinks it could have been for the one off payments on lockdown to compensate people for loss of working incomes.
December 10, 2025
The answer is a combination of incompetence on her part, not being allowed to roll back spending by her party in power, and not giving a damn for what she hands to an incoming government. Hopefully it is the last irresponsible throw of socialism UK style.
December 10, 2025
very true but we thought we were in safe hands with Conservatives.
December 10, 2025
A,
The answer is because – as Trump pointed out – we have weak and politically correct politicians in charge.
He also pointed out the reason Sadiq Khan gets elected.
Unfortunately, these are just random comments from a different continent. Pointing things out does not resolve issues.
Our politicians know Trump is correct. They rely on a phlegmatic electorate who will grumble, but put up with things.
In Greece or France they may take to the barricades. Not here.
December 10, 2025
Peter, I think your last sentence is unduely optimistic.
The public have taken on board the partial reaction to “Peaceful” demonstration, noting that anarchic demos are accepted as furthering the socialist cause, but genuine law abiding and more inciseful ones are corraled and restricted. Witness the Palestine patently illegal ones and those of our farmers.
The nation has collectively sent a message, perhaps too subtle for socialism, via the welcome proliferation of national flags adorning our streets. The message is clear, we have had enough of your bigotted partiality for class warfare and marxist ways, cease, get real before we or tbe IMF have to act.
December 10, 2025
Don’t be so sure. The govt should do everything to stop the British ‘taking to the barricades’, because once they do there will be no stopping them.
There are only two types of people in the U.K. now, angry or very sick. I have never heard of so many dying of cancer. Never. Unbelievable. The penny will drop soon.
December 10, 2025
I’ve developed a mental health condition worrying about the state of the country’s people with mental health problems.
December 10, 2025
But the Covid “vaccines” were safe and effective and saved millions of lives we were assured. Odd then that they are so keen to prevent the release of the figures to show what they say is true. Have cancer rates and heart conditions risen and did this rise just in those Covid vaccinated by certain vaccines, just in those who were not or both.
Surely they would be very keen indeed to show these figures. As they are not I assume the figures are as damning in the UK as they are elsewhere!
December 11, 2025
And not just “the usual suspects” dying from cancer …. young people getting aggressive cancers and dying very quickly.
December 10, 2025
When Sir John says that he does not want Labour to impose the ‘Mansion tax on some 3 bed flats in central London?’ Is he referring to a property he owned or owns?
Reply Of course not. My flat is much less valuable and smaller.
December 10, 2025
It should be noted that the median price of a house in Australia in £ sterling is £946,903.00.
Median U.K. house is £290,000.00.
Britains politicians have impoverished the British people of Britain in comparison with the diaspora.
About time we started a few comparisons, and asked what the difference between us is, I mean it’s worth £656,903.00.
December 11, 2025
I’m surprised.
xe.com 10/12/2025 1GBP = 2.0079 AUD .
yourmortgage.com.au 01/12/2025 median price of Australian property AUD 966,313, ie GBP 481,256.
Where do you take your numbers from?
December 10, 2025
Doom loop Reeves is indeed considerably worse that Cameron, Osborne, May Hammond, Boris, Javid, Sunak, Hunt but the Tories did borrow and spend well over £100bn actually doing vast net harms with the proceeds. This on net harm Covid Vaccines, net harm lockdowns, net harm new red tape, augmenting the feckless with benefits, May’s moronic net harm net zero. The Tories even considered a similar Chagos deal.
The moronic NHS now encouraging cousin marriages and a return to pointless mask wearing! This while the government
continue to try to hide the damning Covid “vaccine” harm figures,
Reply David Cameron told the FCO to stop work on a Chagos sell out. Previous Conservative Foreign Secretaries were not proposing a give away but did not stop officials talking.
The excessive covid lockdown and consequent costs were wrong as I and some Conservative MP s said at the time. Our votes were too few to stop the more extreme measures as all the Opposition parties led by Labour wanted more lockdown and more state support for the resulting economic mess.
December 10, 2025
I remember when the covid government proposed the loans for companies to support them through the epidemic, and said at the time this was an open opportunity for fraud. We are now told that this has resulted in £10.9 Billion of fraudulent loans, cost to the Treasury– https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-fraud-cost-uk-taxpayer-109-billion-reveals-independent-report
Let’s face it, governments over the last 10 years have been unfit for purpose. Profligacy with ‘other peoples money’ was and is part of the character of our MPs.
December 10, 2025
@Peter Wood etc…
From the media, the unnecessary Chagos deal could reach £35 billion to £47 billion, and will be seen as defence spending! No personnel, no tanks, no planes, no ships just an unnecessary expenditure placed on a creaking defence budget. Who profits from, seemingly just the UK Legal Industry.
A U.N. committee on Monday urged Britain and Mauritius not to ratify a deal seeking to settle the future of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean, saying it risks perpetuating long-standing violations of Chagossians’ rights.
So UK Human Rights professionals seek to say up yours to the UN’s human rights concerns. What International Law is it they say they defend?
December 10, 2025
The Chagos transfer defies political and commercial logic. One must therefore look for unusual motives..
December 10, 2025
+1, Peter.
Covid measures were the biggest boondoggle in our history.
December 10, 2025
The companies and individuals that did repay are hugely hit. They have to repay the debt, plus interest, plus extra taxes to cover all the debts that were/will never repaid. Plus all the other tax grabs, the Miliband rip off energy lunacy plus the appalling workers/shirkers rights act!
December 10, 2025
Reply
Yes they all have short memories on wanting even more spending John, enough was never enough at the time.
December 10, 2025
‘The moronic NHS now encouraging cousin marriages’ If true it would be a result of culture and race acceptability.
December 10, 2025
Culture and race capture of the NHS.
December 10, 2025
…that has captured almost every aspect of life in UK.
December 10, 2025
‘Doom loop’. One point.
December 10, 2025
To reply – I agree but even the fist lockdown was foolish – plus they shud down the sensible scientist like the Barrington Dec Ones – so where are the Tories now on the continued hiding of the damning vaccine harms data and do they now accept net zero should be fully ditched or are they still like Sunak a touch on the brakes people?
December 10, 2025
I’m no economist. If they can keep the show on the road for their term but then leave Britain on the verge of bankruptcy, is it a ploy to destroy the politicians that replace them? Fewer years in the political wilderness?
They are globalists so don’t care for our country or its people. Many will hope for, or have been promised, lucrative jobs on the international gravy train in 4 years. Scuppering their successors who win the next election widens the job opportunities for the next generation.
December 10, 2025
The globalists are defeated. These are their death throes. The only question is whether European civilization will be defeated too.
Trump is pointing to the danger.
December 10, 2025
Trump once again is spot on, this time on the wrecker of London – Sir Sadiq Kahn – ‘He’s an incompetent mayor, but he’s a horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor.’ Correct!
This adding to his other sensible advice to Sir Kier to scrap his war on CO2, go for cheap reliable energy, control the borders and to stop attacking free speech. Also not to have men unfairly competing in women’s sport.
Alas the evil Sir Two Tier Kier is not listening, indeed he is very similar Sir Sadiq clearly approving of taking political prisoners so as to kill free speech in the UK..
December 10, 2025
What do you expect? The Labour Party will always have an agenda under which they will increase the %age of the economy dictated by the party.
December 10, 2025
It’s pretty obvious that she intends to bring the country to its knees. It can only be a matter of ti
me before the bond markets revolt. This government will ultimately take the Weimar route of printing money which will wipe out individual savings which is part of the plan.
Next will come a collapse of the property market which will complete the destruction of personal wealth.
There is one nugget of good news, Germany had no bids for their latest round of windmill licences. With Reform saying they won’t honour any new commitments this government makes these probably won’t be any bidders here.
You do know ll this destruction is part of the UN/WEF playbook
Reply Conservatives have called for cancellation of the expensive bidding round.
December 10, 2025
Reform also need to say they won’t honour bond interest rates above a certain level, should they get into power. Say a cap of 5% for 2026, reducing to 4% in 2027, 3% in 2028 and 2% in 2029, the election year.
That will leave the government unable to borrow and forced to live within its means, before the bond markets revolt of their own accord.
December 10, 2025
So Prince William is to introduce P. George to the Centre Point homelessness charity as his mum Lady Di did with him. Fine but please keep him away from your and your dads climate alarmist delusions and gross hypocrisy. This for the sake of the Monarchy.
December 10, 2025
Perhaps Prince George will chirp up with ‘ But Pa you and grandad have homes all over the country, give some away to the people with no home’.
December 11, 2025
I suspect the quickest way to get the Royal Navy to stop the criminal migrants would be for Two-Tier to inform Charles Windsor that Sandringham, Balmoral and Highgrove will be requisitioned to provide them with “free” accommodation.
December 10, 2025
People keep talking about selling off the Chagos Islands – if only – it is being given away with a massive ongoing dowry – in effect to the Chinese!
December 10, 2025
“So why does the Chancellor say our debt is coming down?” Because she’s a liar.
December 10, 2025
Because she thinks we are fools. She was right with Farage, he repeated the lie and obviously believed it.
I does not matter whether Reforms heart is in the right place or not (and knowing Farage, I don’t think it is), they don’t have the ability to stabilise and secure Britain.
We MUST have a competent alternative to failed Conservatives and failed Labour.
December 10, 2025
You must be petrified about Farage and Reform …every day, any subject, you return to the same old scare stories.
December 10, 2025
I’m petrified of Farage.
The good people of Reform need competent people to depend on so they can win!
Are you content to see Britain defeated rather than select somebody who has a track record of being right and honourable and law-abiding?
The MSM have not even begun revealing their bullets against Farage. They hope they will bring all of Reform down with him.
I don’t want that to happen. What about you?
December 10, 2025
If you question her she will say it IS coming down as a percentage of GDP…
So clever
However it depends upon:
The nations GDP actually increases sufficiently
New borrowing is as low as forecast
Maturing bonds can be rolled over
The OBR has confirmed the figures so that’s OK
Don’t hold your breadth
Reply That is another lie. On OBR forecasts it rises as % of GDP this Parliament.
December 10, 2025
She is utterly deluded. The state is out of control. It will remain out of control so long as Labour is in power.
December 10, 2025
Sir John, you ask these questions but the real problem is the person nominally on charge of the country’s spending and income is incapable of either hearing the question or having any clue how to address the issues you raise.
The throw away simplistic claim to pursue growth policies clearly is not happening. The entire effect of the Labour administration thus far has been to stifle growth collapse confidence and increase inflation.
The net impact on individuals, particularly those who pay tax, is a wealth decline and a reduction in spending power.
That decline in personal wealth is reflected in reduced economic activity and consequently lost jobs. The tragedy is, the people losing their jobs/work based incomes are given endless state support, making work unattractive and making them unproductive. They are unlikely to ever return to the tax paying side of the ledger.
Labour can now claim to be the Party of the workless and the tax consumers, or Public Sector as we refer to them. Those blocks of society will be the core Labour voter base, they know they have to keep the Labour Party in office for the sake of their own state provided livelihoods. Particularly the Public Sector. The workless are also hooked into Labour. How else will those unskilled or obsolete skill families survive? There are no jobs to go to. Starmer’s claim to be taking 500 thousand children out of poverty by giving more tax payers money to their parents, rather than increasing work based income opportunities speaks volumes about Labour and its vision for society.
Labour only knows how to confiscate and consume wealth, it has no concept of how to create wealth.
They have all but run out of golden eggs, they are now actively strangling the golden goose.
December 10, 2025
@Rod Evans – yes. All coming from a doctrine supported by more than 50% of Parliament. Parliament gets to own these disasters as they are the ones empowered and paid to hold wayward ministers to account.
No one likes to talk about how the Nation and its People can earn the wealth, the money for all these ideological dreams and the ongoing debts being created. But, they are happy to pay more than the Median rate for doing nothing. Apparently according to the media(the Telegraph) a family with 3 kids on benefits, would need to earn £71K per year for a similar life style if they worked.
December 10, 2025
Yes depressing isn’t it, every Labour Government ever elected has left us in a bigger financial mess than when they took office.
They talk about 14 years of Conservative austerity, forgetting that they had spent all of the money on their 12 year term, and even left a note to confirm it.
Yes the Conservative Party made a huge number of mistakes during those 14 years, the biggest one in trying to be mini socialists themselves, but we now have a deliberate and legalised theft policy of higher taxation by Labour, in a bid to redistribute everyones wealth to the feckless.
December 10, 2025
There was no Conservative austerity. They increased the National Debt every year they were in office. The only austerity was imposed on the British people by way of high taxes.
December 10, 2025
+1
December 10, 2025
To address the root of the problem, there are too many takers in the country who need to be paid for snd too few contributors.
Thus our politicians must pander to the takers in order to stay in power.
This suits Labour, the Greens and Lib Dems (and Reform whose fiscal policies are becoming more and more left wing) as it is their default position to tax and spend.
The Conservatives meanwhile, as the party of government, have adapted their MPs and ethos to appeal to the demographic who take rather than earn.
The only way to address this is to weight each person’s vote or to exclude those who don’t contribute.
An interesting debate to be had.
December 10, 2025
Why no immediate focus on Defence spending?
Increases in the Welfare budget will not help our economy one iota or help protect our population.
Starting to find ways to defend our air space, sea routes and cable/gas lines seems to me to be very much higher up the priority list. Coupled to that spending, a clean out of the Augean stables that is the MoD, together with an immediate reduction in high ranking officers would seem to be an urgent requirement.
Time to start thinking about a combined UK Defence Force that can protect these Isles and it’s people. A Government that had that objective would of course also help.
December 10, 2025
Anyone who can shut the PM up will defend these islands and its people.
December 10, 2025
Who would have believed the Paras are in Ukraine?
What are they doing there?
December 10, 2025
Hopefully picking the Ukranians brains about the likely future of ground warfare….which probably won’t include hardware like Ajax.
December 11, 2025
Russia just exchanged 11,000 Ukrainian kia and received 200.
That’s some margin.
Why don’t we pick Russian brains instead?
December 10, 2025
The incompetence, deceit and lies aren’t just coming from Rachel from Complaints: the Treasury and Bank of England are complicit, as the OBR report has made clear (not that the OBR is competent and trustworthy either).
We need The Blair/Brown Blob to be cleared out of the Civil Service and Quangocracy and for some real individual accountability to be enshrined in the Civil Service Code and with Government Ministers. Civil Service Mandarins who refuse to do what their Minister instructs or who “fail” to do their jobs should be sacked.
A Minister who is sacked for breaking the Ministerial Code, or resigns in disgrace (ie Tax evader Rayner) should never have a route back into Government. Their career should be over.
However, when it comes to the debt, Labour inherited an appalling situation from the Not-a-Conservative-Party: Sunak and Johnson trashed the economy with the Covid Tyranny and Net Zero Lunacy. All they have done is doubled-down on it, as they always do.
I believe it is deliberate. The Blob wants to “prove” that Brexit ruined the economy, as they said it would, in order to engineer “a closer relationship” with the EU – Associate Membership.
December 10, 2025
Rachel Reeves acts like she is a pyramid selling agent. Encouraging the importation of immigrants to keep her sham going cannot work when people are not contributing but costing far more in benefits.
Rachel claims some prowess in chess, but if she placed just £1 on the first square of the board, doubled it to £2 spent on the second square and kept that rate of expense up successively, her cost incurred on the last square of the 64 on the board would be many trillions of pounds.
December 10, 2025
That’s ten ‘Why?’ questions, Sir John. The answer in most cases is bad decisions by the state, whether under a Tory or a Labour administration. Public sector debt rose by over half £1 trillion between 2019 and 2021, in just two years. What happened in between: absurdly high government spending on furlough, test and trace, Nightingale hospitals, Covid vaccines, etc. Now we have spent another £15 billion on supporting a dodgy regime in Ukraine, billions on supporting mass migration, and billions more on PIP now that over half a million more people are claiming it than before the Covid crisis, and with little in the way of eligibility checks.
Overall, it’s a bad situation, but if things are as they are, it’s because those in power want them to be that way, in my view.
December 10, 2025
Sir John
“Debt and £627 bn more debt is overwhelming the UK government”, don’t you mean it is overwhelming the UK Taxpayer. The Government, this Parliament that have all agreed this punishment only get to pay the same personal share as everyone else – or should do.
December 10, 2025
The simple answer is that both the Chancellor and the PM are idiots. As are the majority of Labour MPs who don’t have a clue about basic economics.
When the blind lead the blind, they both fall into the ditch!
December 10, 2025
It’s not any part of their agenda is the quick answer.
With spending so out of control there is only one extrapolation that explains what the government is doing.
We know they are not working for our benefit, imposing as they do one draconian insult after another on hard working people. Their policies show the envy they have of those that innovate and create wealth, while they continue to ignore what the public wants. (A petition against digital IDs savagely ignored with HMG telling us they will do it any way)
This is truly not a real British government we have – calling it a dictatorship would be too mild an description, but we do become more like North Korea every day!
December 10, 2025
What a mess yet surely the Treasury and or the Bank of England should have looked the Chancellor in the eye and spoken truth to power. Yes the new money element is staggering and lets hope the existing £630b can be rolled over – obviously at a higher rate. Why is it that debt reduction is always at the end of a Parliament? Do not envy Reform when they take over even if it is before 2029 which is likely. Clearly Labour prefer welfare payments to defense spending
December 10, 2025
Defence spending £7.5 billion on importing Afghans leads directly to other unproductive spending.
We want government spending cut to the bone.
December 10, 2025
No-one should be surprised. Socialism depends upon making and keeping people poor and with Labour so low in the polls we are seeing a scorched earth policy taking place led by their Chinese 5 year plan to make the UK a “clean energy super power” with the deliberate sabotaging of our energy, industry, economy and national security.
December 10, 2025
I want to know at what point I get solar panels with battery back up installed, so I can at least keep the lights on in winter. If I wait until power cuts actually happen, the prices will suddenly go up massively. Install them now and I might be taking out a large expense before it’s needed.
December 10, 2025
Thanks to Sir John (and Lifelogic and others) on this website. I’ve learned so much (and firmed up my political beliefs that were more mushy than before – even though i sometimes disagree with some things – but that’s more fun than agreeing with everyone all the time). An early Merry Christmas as I focus on others things than politics right now.
December 11, 2025
Merry Christmas Ed, and I hope 2026 is a good one for you …. and all of us.
December 10, 2025
Ed M,
Merry Christmas.
From what I read, I think you overestimated the ability of politicians to change the zeitgeist. I understand a desire for a different outlook – maybe one that was more prevalent before. I just don’t believe politicians can deliver that.
December 10, 2025
Really debt should not be a normal feature of life and should only be used for extraordinary items for individuals, that is buying a house (I am dubious even about buying cars with debt) or when very rational in terms of a business.
In terms of countries debt is even less legitimate because countries consist of large populations with a diversity of ages which spreads risks and commitments (in a way individuals may not be able to do, say to buy a house). So the only real justification for a sizable country, especially a developed wealthy country, to borrow and get into debt is if like Ukraine (and maybe Moldova alone in Europe) it is engaged in a war wherein the very freedom and survival of its people are in serious danger (as was demonstrated in Mariupol).
This is not a fashionable view, least of all among governments that are wasteful and inefficient with their people’s money, but I think it is a correct view.
December 10, 2025
I read that you are to be elevated to the House of Lords.
Many congratulations but it has been long overdue !
Let us know when it happens and when you are to make your maiden speech.
December 10, 2025
Yes, congratulations Sir John Redwood.
I see Labour have 25 nominations
Lib Dems have 5.
Conservatives have 3
I am not sure how the numbers are agreed – but a significant boost for Labour.
December 10, 2025
Well done on your peerage SirJ
December 10, 2025
Hi sir john
The problem is when labour finally get kicked out of government.
The new government will have to do things that are not popular
To ease the debts that labour again will have left us in the same as Gordon Brown did in 2008
labour in Birmingham have bankrupt the city now most of the residents are having to pay
The government and local councils are ruining the country But it’s never their fault.
December 10, 2025
Dear Sir John,
Better late than never. The House of Lords is (sadly) where the serious political debates take place and will be much enhanced by your contributions. If you had been able to hammer away in the Lords about the Bank of England’s crazy gilt sales, for instance, the Treasury would surely been shamed into action. Christmas congratulations to you – pity you will no longer be Sir John though.
December 10, 2025
Congratulations on your Peerage.
December 11, 2025
Congratulations on your Peerage Sir John.
It would appear that we will be getting 3 sensible right-of-centre Peers, and 25 deluded Socialists.