You do not need to be an economic “expert” to see what is wrong with the UK economy. The government is spending, taxing and borrowing too much. As a result talented people leave for lower taxed new countries, businesses divert investment abroad, jobs are created elsewhere. Meanwhile a badly run public sector wastes and misdirects too much of the cash it syphons off from families and businesses leading to yet more demands for higher spending and taxing.
The fiscal rules are meant to control this, but they do not. One of the main reasons is they are based on “controlling” the level of borrowing in Year five of the 5 year forecast. Under the system year 5 never comes. Instead of sticking with the Year five figure and enforcing the control on borrowing when we get there, they keep rolling forward to always rely on a forecast 5 years ahead. This allows regular increases to planned borrowing for the original year 5 forecast when the passage of time makes it the year 4 forecast then the year 3 forecast down to the current year. Spending and borrowing under control for year five are allowed to be much higher when they become Year 1. Government relentlessly pushes up spending and debt every year.
Because the control is on a distant year it makes it anyway a silly exercise. Neither the government nor the OBR negotiating the numbers for five years time have a clue what the deficit will actually be then. Nor can the rest of us tell them, as it is beyond the capability of forecasters. In 2030-31 who will be the UK government? What policy will they be following to tax and spend? Who will be the US President? What policy will he or she follow on trade, tax and spend and energy? Will the world economy be expanding or contracting? What impact will AI have had on employment and productivity?How much extra pay by then will doctors and train drivers be earning? How much more will HS 2 be costing?
Later articles will expose more of the nonsense of the fiscal rules. The Year 5 rule both seems tough to a Chancellor making a budget, but ensures endless rises in spending and debts because a controlled Year 5 never comes. We need to concentrate on current year and next year, not year 5.
December 13, 2025
You say ‘talented people leave for lower taxed new countries’. I think you mean people who are only motivated by money.
December 13, 2025
‘In the long run we are all dead.’ ?
December 13, 2025
All the more reason to move to better economic climes if necessary and you wish too. Grab and enjoy the days you have left. Rather than giving all your money to incompetent, dishonest, doom loop fools like Starmer, Miliband, Lammy, Phillipson and Reeves to waste doing net harms.
Roger Bolton (ex BBC) complained to Mark Dolan (thursday I thing) about him calling Two Tier Kier a serial liar and wicked. I would add evil too he is far worse than wicked and patently a serial liar. As is Reeves lies like “we are “asking” people to pay a little more! Asking? Well no thanks then dear!
December 13, 2025
Not at all. Many businesses leave or relocate in part as without doing so their business cannot compete with others that do. Also they get sick of all the red tape that strangles their activities and waste their time. They may be interesting in making money but mainly so as to keep their business going and growing or to help children and grandchildren!
It is also of course their moral duty to pay as little to the UK government as legally possible as in the UK they spend it so appallingly v. often doing vast net harms! They will almost always invest and spend it far better as it is very hard not too given the quality of this government’s waste and spending!
December 13, 2025
Motivated not by money but by success and achievement I’d suggest. A trait that would help the UK if all of us followed it.
As to the thrust of Sir J’s article. I agree balancing the budget in 5 years time is a nonsense. Even if achieved in some years the overall outcome is higher Government spend.
It’s OK though – eventually bond markets catch on to the problem and make the Chancellor pay.
December 13, 2025
I left the UK after the winter of discontent and returned 22 years later
I had a skill which permitted me to work almost anywhere in the world. It wasn’t money that motivated me but the dead hand of the unions.
As for the OVR and economic forecasting they actually make astrology look sane.
We now have the EU lifting the ban on ICE vehicles indefinitely but milibrains ploughs on regardless. Is there no one in Westminster who can remove him and get him sectioned. No single person should be in a position to do so much damage
December 13, 2025
“The government is spending, taxing and borrowing too much” well it is even worse than this. It is also vastly over regulating massively plus what they spend they largely waste or worse spend doing huge net harms like Net Zero rip off unreliable energy and the climate alarmist lunacy, the net harm Covid Vaccines and Lockdowns, augmenting the feckless with benefits higher than wages, sick joke Covid Inquiries, two tier justice, DEI, diversity appointments over ability, pushing lies & propaganda, political arrests to suppress free speech, the wars on Landlords, Motorists, Business owners, the hospitality industries, oil, coal, gas production…
Vastly over regulating but doing so in moronic ways, sledge hammers to miss the nut but doing vast damage in the process. An absurdly restricted planning system two. Fines even for spitting out a leaf or insect that blows into your mouth now a new part of the tax system.
December 13, 2025
High taxes alone will give us the doom loop. Is it worth me employing a nanny so my wife can work? probably not with current tax levels, employment laws, commuting costs and hassle plus other costs and risks – unless my wife can earn about 4 times the gross pay of the nanny. Is it worth me moving to take a job paying double – probably not with stamp duty and moving costs of perhaps £150k that my employer cannot cover with me paying even more tax and NI. Is is worth me working from overseas in a lower tax lower cost area?
High taxes, red tape, net zero rip off energy, restrictive planning, paying the feckless benefit claimers more than the workers them wasting much of the taxes raised doing net harms… yet Reeves says she is single minded on growth, growth, growth! Certainly not growth of the real economy or anything productive it seems.
The government is a vast parasitic job creation scheme in red tape and compliance. Parasites that slowly and now not so slowly, kill off the productive sectors orr drive them overseas.
December 13, 2025
‘Doom loop’ one point scored.
December 13, 2025
An economic doom loop created by Reeves and Starmer videos Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Meg Hillier accused the Chancellor of ‘throwing grenades’ at markets in the run-up to the crucial fiscal package on November 26.
So not so much rolling the pitch Reeves as chucking grenades at it then fully exploding the economic foundations for good measure in the Budget!
December 13, 2025
Meg Hillier Labour MP & Chair of the Treasury Select Committee. Perhaps I should add her to my list of about 5 people who read PPE Oxon. and survived with some brain intact!
Then again Hillier chose to be a Labour MP and was an ardent supporter of the Remain campaign during the 2016 EU referendum, and announced that she was “devastated” that the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union and that the decision was fuelled by “xenophobic undertones”.
No dear it was just a desire to restore some genuine, democratic and accountable UK government. We still await this restoration alas!