This is a reissue of important data
Conventional wisdom says that the UK received an economic boost from joining the EEC, wrongly called the Common Market at the time. It also alleges there was a further boost from the EEC transforming itself into the EU and completing its so called single market in 1992.
I believe in checking the data. If you look at the graphs and charts of our economic output there is no sudden favourable burst in 1973-5 when we first joined, and no sudden surge in 1993-5 when the EU announced single market completion. Nor is there any sign throughout this period of any upward tilt in our economic performance, however slight. If you gave people the charts and asked them when a significant favourable event occurred they would not have chosen 1973 or 1993.
Worse still is that in practice both our time in the Common market and in the single market impeded our growth and helped destroy important parts of our industrial base. These were the years of big decline in everything from fishing to steel and from market gardening to shipbuilding.
The 20 years from 1953 to 1972 prior to our entry into the EEC saw the UK grow by 95%. That was a growth rate of 3.4% a year. I have left out 1945-1952 as years obviously boosted by recovery from a war and affected by demobilisation.
The next twenty years in the Common market, 1973-92, saw our growth slump to just 42%, under half the previous 20 year period. That was an annual rate of 1.76%
If we then look at the 28 years 1993 to 2020 when we were in the single market and customs union, total growth was 59%. That was an annual growth rate of just 1.66%.
So we grew much slower in the EEC/EU than out, and slower still once the restrictive and bureaucratic single market was completed. These numbers flatter the later EU period as they are not per capita. They are not adjusted for Labour’s relaxation of control on economic migrants after 1997. Our per capita performance has been very poor recently.
February 17, 2026
Good morning.
The EEC / EU is not about economics but about politics. Everything is designed around the belief that a single European entity, called the EU, would be far better as a single national government than many differing ones.
After the WWII France and Germany agreed to never go to war again. To this end they created the ECSC, for runner of today’s EU.
Because the EEC was so mis-sold to the British public it took us decades to realise what it really was – A supranational government.
I do not care about the economic arguments for the EU. We are not discussing the reality of what it really is.
February 17, 2026
Agreed Mark, the CM/EEC/EU was always about creating a political united states of Europe to prevent future internal conflicts.
Sir John, you should expand you analysis to include he growth rates of other western counties and developed nations. You will find that these countries collectively and individually achieved much faster growth than the UK did over the decades of EU membership. It always confuses me why nobody presents this data and explains the cost of the EU in terms of economic drag.
Reply I regularly set out the great out performance all this century so far by the USA and explain why the US wins and the EU loses.
February 17, 2026
Sir John, I agree you have noted the success of the USA c/f Europe. This pattern is repeated for Canada, Australia, NZ and others. My point about the lack of presentation of comparative GDP growth was more that the media and commentators generally do not mention this detail. In fact many still refer to the 4% “lost GDP” from Brexit, ignoring the fact that UK growth has exceeded that of much of Europe in this period.
February 17, 2026
@Mark B
+1
February 17, 2026
It did not take a lot of people “decades”, even as a teenager and too young to vote I was against joining – but voters were given no choice by the dire Ted (three day week Con-socialist) Heath. Then Wilson gave a (post joining’ “Common Market” dishonest referendum with a biased question. It was patently anti-democratic and is now even more so – doubtless why the appalling anti-democratic Starmer wishes to re-align/rejoin.
When all the main political parties support something like the EU, net zero, the minimum wages, ever higher taxes, ever more red tape, wars against landlords and small business, the NHS structure, excessive planning restrictions… it is almost invariably a very bad idea.
February 17, 2026
Those who were arguing to remain in the EU largely used emotional arguments (the let’s all be friends in Europe hold hands and sing the Choral symphony together). Those like Enoch Powell, Peter Shaw, Tony Benn, Foot, Richard Powel, Varley, Castle used rather more rational/logical arguments. I was of the love Europe hate the anti-democratic EU view. Heart or Head? What is the point of voting in a UK government that is not really in power due to the un-democratic EU.
February 17, 2026
A supranational, anti-democratic and hugely costly government using a broken compass with no real control from voters at all.
February 17, 2026
I cannot believe that 10 years from the Brexit vote we are still having to have these discussions.
The EU forvthe average British pets was a disaster, for the EU it was a goldmine.
Most legislation was designed to favour France and Germany at the expense of Britain.
We now have a PM who hates this country and is he’ll bent on sliding us back into their orbit.
Reform have made it clear, as with renewable subsidies that they will cancel any agreement detrimental to the UK and after the debacle of the local elections, 2TK should take note.
February 17, 2026
It started in the way you describe but quickly devloped into ‘Ever closer union’ with the aim of forming a new state that would replace the USA as the most powerful state in the western world. That is why it has been undermining NATO for decades, duplicating NATO structures and, unlike NATO, the EU takes political control of forces from member states taking part in EU military operations. In NATO political control of forces always remains with the state providing them and the sovereignty of states is never impugned. Such a voluntary principle is unacceptable in the EU as it would undermine the EU’s supreme authority over member states.
February 17, 2026
Of course, the part of Starmer’s speech (or blather) regarding being less reliant on USA and building a stronger Europe makes sense, in terms of replacing it, now you’ve mentioned it.
I’m of the mindset that we shouldn’t as a nation become too reliant on any other state, but work with others for mutual gain.
Working with others but not being ruled by others, and that I’m afraid is the EU’s sole aim and demand.
February 17, 2026
They can now go to war and no member state can stop them.
No unanimity for that action required.
So if you want to see the Russian Steppe, just let these feral politicians take the U.K. back into the EU.
The Union flag was flying outside the EU Parliament building in Brussels yesterday. What is all that about JR? Has something happened?
February 17, 2026
There is no economic justification for EEC/EU membership and there never was. Those who support it do it for political reasons, not economic ones.
It’s an attempt to build a United States of Europe, governed by a self-selecting and “on message” Elite with just a pretence of democracy: the institutional structure is similar to the USSR.
The Remainers / Rejoiners like Two-Tier try to use an economic argument because they don’t to use the political one because it would mean admitting that the intention is to completely destroy this country’s independence and that of the other nations of Europe.
Well done to Nigel Farage and Reform for forcing Two-Tier to drop his anti-democratic attempt to cancel Local Elections. I’m sure the Labour and “Conservative” Councils, who seized the opportunity to deny their Council Tax payers the right to vote on who is spending their money, are very happy that they will be held to account in May.
February 17, 2026
Indeed “There is no economic justification for EEC/EU membership and there never was. Those who support it do it for political reasons, not economic ones.” No economic justification for almost everything this Labour Government has done either unless you want economic vandalism.
Surely the Labour and Tory councillors who went along with this appalling attempted suppression of democracy should be totally wiped out!
February 17, 2026
+1
So Rachel Reeves states that the government has “created the conditions for growth,” Surely she missed out “to kill growth”. Can anyone suggest anything that has been done by this government which might encourage or create growth?
February 17, 2026
I see Mr jelly fish as U-Turn on people voting in local elections, reality check or what , what next u-turn on the CU or SM in the EU don’t hold your breath this is all these bunch of muppets want because they along with the EU don’t have the intelligence to run a bath let alone a country, the start of labour’s demise will come next week in the by-election then they will be like rats in a sack
February 17, 2026
Now let’s join together to castigate the people in the U.K. who have a plan to oppose this idiocy and defeat it.
You lead the charge – as usual Brainless One.
February 17, 2026
Mick :
I believe Sir Keir intended right from the beginning to U-turn on voting in council elections. He wanted any opposition to him to have a shortage of time to organise themselves for this election. It also exposed the socialist side of the Conservative Party who were also happy to have elections cancelled. In general I believe Sir Keir is happy to go along with U-turns as the announcement and the cancellation provide “dead-cat-on-the-table” episodes to hide what is really happening – such as the sabotaging of our energy to cause de-industrialisation and thus national insecurity.
February 17, 2026
Mick, I apologise for being disrespectful I mistook you for ‘Mickey Taking’.
Just saw red.
February 17, 2026
Not an apology to me then, Lynn?
February 17, 2026
When a country runs a trading deficit with other countries the options for growth of GDP are limited as any growth is being taken up by the other countries.
Unless exports increase massively as a result of any agreements there is no real benefit to anyone except the companies themselves.
Without the incoming goods, that demand needs to be satisfied by a country’s own internal market.
February 17, 2026
It would be a great idea if our host got together with GBNews and presented these graphs and data – as nobody else is telling the truth on this matter.
It would be a counter-weight to Starmers deceit on the subject.
GBNews are open to such debates on this subject where other media just give out the internationalist’s misinformation.
Reply I have said these things on GB News, and most recently even on BBC 5 Live in a rare interview.
February 17, 2026
Indeedy, but if GBNews could make this a feature, as they do with a number of things, get them to repeat your presentation with figures across several presenter’s shows it would certainly have a big impact.
That’s what we need to fight Starmer’s deceit.
Nice concise words from your good self last night.
February 18, 2026
The best way is to make it into a report – GBNews like nothing better than an important sounding report to mull over.
February 17, 2026
In all honesty I don’t know how many more time we can rehearse these arguments.
For 44 years in my hearing we have put them, won the argument and lost everything.
The only relief was when the people took power and imposed Brexit – what a night!
We need the power to defend ourselves from extermination JR.
Any plans?
February 17, 2026
Good to have all this confirmed but my memory is that the myth of UK’s economy being boosted by membership of the EU was well and truly busted during the EU referendum debate, probably by Briefings for Britain. Odd thing about human nature: it finds myths comforting and in some cases propels believers into paroxysms of rage and hate, especially when the myth is disproved.
Now, however the argument is no longer about the economy. It is about globalisation and human rights. This is Starmer’s lifetime’s ambition. He and his gang in government and fellow Fabians see the EU as an essential step towards global socialist government, which Fabians believe should replace nation states. Starmer’s gang is happy for us to pay billions to get UK subjugated to the EU for this reason alone. They are anti-democratic and they don’t do God so happily allied to Islamists.
Somewhat off topic but related, a myth fondly revered in Australia is that the British betrayed the Australians at Gallipoli in 1915. It’s balderdash as their own official military histories, eg., the history of the Aus 1st Div, show but in Australia the myth is considered to be beyond dispute and a foundational myth of the nation of Australia. At least it explains why so many Australians have a chip on their shoulders.
February 17, 2026
Yes, I believe you M’Lud but the Jury never see’s that data and the common belief is that Brexit has damaged our ecomomy. Very few commentators defend your views and virtually no other politicians argue it. The Conservative Party should have been driving home this message both before and after 2016 but it did not and the reason is very clear. Much of the CP was very much in favour of EU membership and in my view this is still true. I’d like to believe Mrs Badenoch has purged these Liberal / pro-EU tendencies but I’m afraid deep in my heart I don’t. That is the real dilemma at the heart of the “Conservative” problem over the next three years and it is one that I cannot see a solution to. Personally, I will not vote for any party that has a majority of sitting MP’s who are pro-EU.
Reply The modern Conservative policy agrees with this analysis, opposes the bad government re set and has no wish to re enter the EU.
February 17, 2026
I’ve been using GROK to help write computer algorithms for a while now (nothing naughty!) and found it very useful. So out of curiousity I asked CoPilot how many current Conservative MPs were Brexit suports in 2016. Here is what it “thought”
“I can’t give you a precise, defensible exact number—and anyone who does, without showing their working and data, is bluffing a bit—but we can say with high confidence that it’s now only a small minority of that original Remain‑supporting group. Here’s the honest picture:
In 2016 there were about 185 Conservative MPs in the “Remain” camp (declared + inferred). Since then you’ve had: the 2017 election (big churn, plus some retirements), the 2019 election (lots of Cameron/May‑era Remainers gone, plus those who lost the whip over Brexit votes), the 2024 election (massive clear‑out of long‑serving Conservatives, disproportionately including the older, more Cameroonian, more Remain‑leaning wing). If you track the obvious names who are definitely still there (Hunt, Tugendhat, Cleverly, etc.) and mentally subtract all the ex‑ministers, ex‑Remainer backbenchers and 2019/2024 casualties, you end up in roughly this territory:
Ballpark now: on the order of 25–40 of those original ~185 Conservative Remain MPs are still in the Commons as Conservative MPs. That’s roughly 15–20% of the original Conservative Remain cohort. So: the direction is clear—most Conservative Remain MPs have left Parliament one way or another—and the best good‑faith estimate is that only a few dozen of them are still there today and not more than forty”
So at one level, I do feel a little more reassured but I am also aware that many of those “former” MPs/PMs etc are still lurking in the ‘Party’ background. They’ve not gone away entirely.
February 18, 2026
A large number are in the House of Lords, safely immune from political accountability.
February 17, 2026
When we joined in ’73 we left all that growth in the years following WW2 behind – we joined a new model where we were part of something new and to do that we pooled sovereignty and economy of scale in order to pursue economic greatness within a different framework. However we joined and then we left and It was a big mistake as the decision to leave was not based on sound logic or due diligence but rather on nostalgia and a search for the Empire past – a big mistake by the deluded and those who advised us because had we not joined the EEC in 1973 the Empire was still going to fade.
February 17, 2026
Hope you feel better deluded.
February 17, 2026
Nonsense. People voted to regain control of our law, regulation, borders and government. That remains the case. Most people do not want to be governed by a non-elected bureacratic oligarchy (e.g., Brussels) that purports to represent it’s members but in fact is controlled by a few. I voted all those years ago to join a trade organisation, not a political union. In my defence, I was a lot less well informed in those days than I am now. The problem is that much of our population is equally misinformed (e.g. misled) or possibly as “deluded” as you appear to be about the motives of those who supported Brexit in 2016. Unfortunately, we failed to get what we voted for – a return (not to Empire) just simple direct democracy and the supremacy of Parliament.
February 17, 2026
Nostalgia for glories past might have inspired some to vote leave, but I doubt it was much to do with that.
For me it was about local government and central government being quite enough telling me what to do, and I didn’t want anyone else doing the same.
February 17, 2026
People keep telling me that we our poorer for leaving the EU. When I ask what they mean they usually trot out the 4% statistic. When I point out that our growth since we left the EU has been in line with all the major EU economies and ask if they are saying we would have outperformed them by 4%, something which never occurred during our period of membership, they have no answer.
February 17, 2026
As @Mark B and many others have said the EU project was never about trade, economics but it was and still is a political project. The aim was as people are suggesting elsewhere comes from what we now perceive of entities such as the WEF and the Fabian Society whose doctrine dictates there must be World Government.
As such these ideological religions are anti democracy, anti the people, the individual. They aspire to create a race ruled by their personal(very personal) desires with themselves personally as the ruling class, the overlords. They promote the pseudo ideal that they will bless their minions, their surfs, their slaves with a life they are due, which will be better than that of freedom and responsibility.
February 17, 2026
It is interesting that people like Wes Streeting keep saying that re-joining the Customs Union (but not at this point the Single Market) would boost growth. I wonder what possible mechanism he thinks would make that happen ? Why would cancelling all our trade agreements with non-EU countries and replacing them with the EU’s trade agreements with a similar set of countries boost growth at all ? It might even reduce growth – for a start we’d be subject to higher tariffs imposed by the USA. I suppose the reason is either that he simply doesn’t understand what the Customs Union is, or he does and just regards it as a necessary first step to completely rejoining.
February 17, 2026
The greatest tragedy looking back over our period of direct engagement with the Continental European project was, the Tory Party’s hand in it.
Ted Heath took us into the EEC and handed over all of our fishing rights without any benefit to the UK. The result was immediate and ongoing loss of an entire basic industry i.e. fishing and processing plus ship repair and construction for that industry. It is worth remembering the UK had the largest surface fleet of trading ships sailing all over the world with direct influence of trades and trade routes they almost exclusively dominated. That is all gone where is P&O. We also had world class steel making and smelting of many basic materials, mining was a leader in world class technology, all gone.
Then we look at 1992 and the Maastricht treaty, part of the conversion from EEC to EU, That was signed by Tory PM John Major without proper study and forced through before any MP had time to read the treaty being entered into.
My friend MP Christopher Gill tried to distribute the treaty document and was stopped by the Party whips from doing so.
Labour have been full on supporters of the integration of European Nations into the Pan European super state of the EU. They were happy to let the Tories do the heavy lifting and simply waited their moment to turbo charge the anti democracy nature of EU institutions with Blair adopting full submission to the ECJ and all Commission based rules and regulations.
The choice of the British electorate was to leave the EU behind yet it was Theresa May a Tory PM who did all in her power to thwart that decision. She sought to create chaos in Parliament with assistants such as Becow, Soubry, Heseltine, Clarke, and too many others helping her.
You my Lord are one of the few that have an honourable history but too many others in the Tory ranks let us down and continue to support that which was and is damaging to the Nation state of the Great Britain &Northern Ireland.
Reply You miss out the most important thing. I and a few other Conservative MPs secured the promise of a referendum, and aConservative government gave us that vote which got us out.
February 17, 2026
reply to reply …oh come now. Ms Merkel and friends made it clear to Cameron that they would concede nothing to him, nor UK in his plea to offer something to take back to Brit voters. A piece of paper waved again that ‘we have concessions from Europe’ might have persuaded fewer Leave votes, but as usual the EU dictators slammed the door and they lost the Ref. Ever since, the shock wave among the deluded EU commissioners has resulted in trying to damage UK to pay the price for having the temerity to vote ‘no thanks, f.off’.
You Conservatives guessed full well that without the promised ref. you were toast at the next GE.
February 17, 2026
The UK, EU gulf
To me the flaw is the freedom and democracy interpretations. The Law and Rules and how they are arrived at might seem subtle, but the difference is a massive gulf as it defines a different set of individuals as rulers.
The UK was built on a Democracy that causes Laws to be made, amended and repealed – in that nothing is against the Law unless the democratic process makes it so, and that same process, ‘democracy’ can change those Laws. The EU has a rules based system the basic principle being everything is illegal unless permissions are granted for it, as such a bureaucratic machine of unelected unaccountable officials are in place to effectively rule.
As AI tells us
The Napoleonic system tries to design law from the top down.
UK common law builds law from the bottom up.
For us in the UK it was never as some try to suggest about trade, or getting on with our neighbours and being a good neighbours. The EU peoples are not their own rulers, they are a different breed. It was about freedoms and democracy. The freedom to make mistakes, learn and evolve not be constrained by things that have nothing tod do with anything. The forcing of the one size fits all into ever circumstance.
“single market and customs union” The EU bureaucrats define that as ‘their market their way’ – ‘their customs their way’ every one has to conform to their World Order
February 17, 2026
There is currently a clamour in the media for the former Prince Andrew to face a police probe into his conduct as a UK trade Ambassador. That may well be appropriate in his case.
But what about a police probe into all the PMs, Governments and MPs who took us into the EU, kept us there for so many years, allowing the EU to damage the UK in numerous ways. The conduct of a majority of MPs during the referendum was a disgrace, showing they had no belief in the UK or its people.
Finally, should not Keir Starmer and his close associates be ( examined? ed)based on what they are doing to force the UK back into the EU?
February 17, 2026
John,
You are still riding on the same old horse and it is really now time to change horse.
Shipbuilding and steel industry has been lost in all OECD countries over the past 40 to 50 years and it has nothing to do with the EU or the Single Market it would have happened anyway.
John, please change tune and come up with something new and useful
Reply, You sound rattled by the facts. Germany kept more steel and vehicle production, but the EU as a whole has lost out badly to Asia and the Americas. That is the fault of EU policy.
February 17, 2026
Thank you for those facts and figures, Sir John. Invaluable information.
I think someone else has already mentioned how these facts must not be smothered by mainstream media.
Perhaps Labour will label them as ‘far right’ opinions to be censored.
Although only a small girl at the time of being taken into the ‘Common Market’ I gathered from my parents conversations and others around that people were pretty soon realising all was not as it was portrayed.
The loss of so much farming. I had no idea we’d had orchards on the edge of my town, which were virtually done away with overnight for Common Market reasons.
Where my husband grew up there was a thriving fishing industry, now just a shadow of its former self.
The story will be the same up and down the nation I’m quite sure.
February 17, 2026
Oh no, some sovereign british people have invaded an island that Starmer has gifted to Mauritius …what will his labour government do; what will the EU do ? Send in the Royal Navy perhaps ?
February 17, 2026
History in the making ….at a mention on BBC or SKY
February 17, 2026
Remind me what navy could we send in, like gunboats up the river to quell the rebellious natives?
February 18, 2026
A ‘british patrol’ has today, ordered them to leave the island
February 17, 2026
sorry I am somewhat late in responding to your blog.
Conventional Wisdom n’existe-pas it is a figment of imagination.There is common sense and there is convention.
The former resonates with all our day-to-day experiences and thinking.Wisdom (not to be mixed up with the cricket bible) derives from the biblical “three wise men”
Did you mean traditional expectation of the right to expect that the people we voted for would fulfill their
promises?
February 17, 2026
Starmer wants us to prepare for war with Russia but is halfling the size of the Paras. You couldn’t make this level of incompetence up.
February 18, 2026
An EU advocate would argue the relevant comparison is relative growth not absolute – in the 50s and 60s growth in the EEC countries (& the US) averaged around 5%. One of the arguments for joining the EEC in 1973-5 was that the major EEC countries such as France Germany and Italy had shown better growth than the UK.