The government wrongly says an EU re set will give us more economic growth. They think they can get non tariff barriers to trade in goods eased to promote more activity. Let’s look at the basic arithmetic.
In 2024 the UK imported 1.7 times as much as it exported in goods to the EU, running a large deficit. If they could get barriers eased so that they could expand trade by 10% both ways, our goods exports would go up by £17.7 bn and our goods imports by ££30 bn . GDP figures add in exports as that is activity and value added created in the UK, and subtract imports as that is activity abroad. So with a symmetric 10% increase in goods trade GDP would be reduced . The UK would need to find ways of creating or keeping barriers against imports to help growth from the EU trade route.
To keep GDP constant the UK would need to increase its goods exports by 70% more than its imports, given the much lower base of exports in our trade. So if imports rose 5% we would need to grow exports by 8.5% just to stand still.
In practice it is difficult to see how the UK will get non tariff barriers or border bureaucracy so reduced that it will achieve a measurable increase in trade. A few easings for meat and dairy helps a tiny sector of our exports. Meanwhile our past leading exports to the EU include diesel and petrol cars, about to be banned in UK, oil and gas, put into accelerated rundown by Mr Miliband, and refined oil products where we have just shut one third of our refineries.
Exporting more goods to the EU is not going to be a source of more growth for the economy on current government policies.
If the relatively small admin costs of exports to the EU are such a big worry the government could give every exporting company a subsidy to cover them. The cost would be less than 10 % of the money the UK is likely to give the EU each year for this alleged benefit.
May 12, 2026
Once again you’re using a logical argument which has no merit with the government.
Starmer will get his way and tie us to the rotting corpse of the EU because that’s what he wants.
No amount of evidence will change their minds as with net zero ideology trumps common sense.
May 12, 2026
+1 with a cavate.
It is not TTK that is driving this. ‘Others’ are 😉 see my comment below.
May 12, 2026
But does our EU bound Prime Minister or any of the duds about to replace him know this? Does anyone in our useless civil service know this? The Commissars of the EU must be laughing up their sleeves.
May 12, 2026
The pro-EU ideologues don’t “do” arithmetic. They also don’t “do” democracy, just like the rest of the EU Authoritarians.
They are desperately trying to save THEIR jobs/careers and will sacrifice whole industries and the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of British people in order to do it.
May 12, 2026
@Donna. +1.
May 12, 2026
Good Morning,
Doing more political deals with the EU will not benefit our economic condition. The EU is not competitive, look at the Mario Draghi report. Starmer and the EU cadres are ideological socialists; always more regulation and state control is the answer to any problem.
Fortunately for the UK, we might just manage to throw off this second millstone of catastrophic national management. The Labour Party looks like it is emulating it’s predecessor in effecting its own destruction. Change is coming, we’re in for some ‘interesting times’.
May 12, 2026
Perhaps Reeves should be replaced by an A-level economics student.
May 12, 2026
Meanwhile our past leading exports to the EU include diesel and petrol cars, about to be banned in UK, oil and gas, put into accelerated rundown by Mr Miliband,
That basically was the bargaining chip Boris had in is locker for exerting the dreaded EU, but don’t worry people there is a light at the end of the tunnel
Starmer’s premiership in freefall as Home and Foreign Secretaries ‘both tell him to quit’: Beleaguered PM must face his mutinous Cabinet today after delegation of ministers went to No10 following his disastrous reset speech to say his time is up , so hopefully this useless PM is soon to be consign to the history books as the worst PM and party to have tried to run our great country, but then being the crafty lawyer he is what’s the bets he threatens his MPs with a General Election if he’s chucked out of office, Just Saying