The threadbare case for the great EU give away is based on three false statements.
1. The UK has lost 4% ( or in some variants 8%) of GDP following the Brexit vote. GDP went up after the Brexit vote, and GDP behaved like EU GDP over the covid period. As the government tells us, our growth is currently faster than Germany, France and Italy in the EU. The 4% figure was an OBR forecast that productivity growth might be 0.25% a year less for 15 years so by 2035 productivity might have gone up 4% less. They never said we would lose 4% GDP as soon as we voted out or when we left.
2. Despite having a Free Trade Agreement with the EU bought at considerable expense the Re setters say we have lost exports to the EU owing to non tariff frictions. We need to adopt their extra laws and taxes to avoid this. Our total exports to the EU have risen since Brexit by 22%. Goods exports have grown slowly in cash terms as they did when we were in the EU. This is mainly due to UK high energy prices , de industrialisation and farm grants to give up food production. The UK mainly exports services which have surged in recent years, and mainly exports to non EU where we have been able to enter Free Trade Agreements the EU never achieved for us. They think goods exports are the main driver of growth when our total goods exports to the EU are just 5% of GDP.They will burden the big majority if companies with extra rules and taxes who do not export.
3. They claim there would be good growth opportunities from adopting EU laws and taxes.There never were between 2008-20 when we were fully in the EU. How come dearer energy via their emissions system, dearer raw materials via their carbon tariff, and more regulatory cost via their restrictive rules would make us better off when it would increase costs and make us less innovative and competitive?
These are the questions they will not answer
1.Our time in the EEC/EU gave us a growth rate two thirds the rate we enjoyed in the 20 years before entry. Why would going back in be different?
2. This century the EU has fallen further and further behind the US in growth, so EU GDP per head is now only one half the US.Why join the losers? Why not be independent , global and choosing the best laws and tax rates for success?
3. The UK buys much more food and goods from the EU than we sell to them. Aligning with them will boost their exports more than ours. GDP goes down if import growth exceeds export growth. It means more UK closures and lost jobs on our side of the channel.