There will be no campaigning today in the General election. Parties wish to respect the memory of those killed so cruelly in Manchester. I provide a blog today about an unrelated subject.
Between them India and China account for almost two fifths of the world population. Both have in recent years been growing quickly. China enjoyed a major growth spurt based on industry, exports and heavy investment. More recently India has moved ahead of the slower Chinese growth rate based on a more balanced growth, coming from a lower average income level.
China is now the world’s second largest economy thanks to the size of her population and the dominance of her industry. She makes half the world’s steel and similarly large proportions of many manufactured goods. There are constant fears expressed in the West that China will experience a hard landing. Commentators who missed out on predicting the western banking crash think China might have one of her own. It’s an odd argument.
They usually compare total economy debt in China with state debt in the West. If you compare total debt with total debt as a percentage of GDP China is still below a number of western economies. It is true there are potential bad debts within the Chinese nationalised sector. As the Chinese authorities own both sides of the transaction they can sort it out without bringing down the banking system.
Meanwhile India is getting the taste for modernisations and reform from Mr Modi. Following his successful conversion of a lot of cash into bank account money, he is now turning to sales tax reform. He wishes to sweep aside numerous complex transaction taxes imposed on a state by state basis and replace them with one GST India wide. It will greatly simplify doing business across borders within the country.
It looks as if this year again both India and China will make important contributions to world growth.
Published and promoted by Fraser Mc Farland on behalf of John Redwood, both at 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG 40 1 XU
May 24, 2017
And despite this wealth, India receives £150 million in aid from us.
May 24, 2017
Breath taking incompetence by the Tory govt. JR forgets Tata steel when Javier was on a jolly. The Climate Change Act putting the company out of business because the U.K. Tory govt wants to build on what Miliband introduced! Do either China or India care about this as they grow their economies? When is May going to get up to speed in the real world, no Layla Westminster swamp the real world?
May now disteibuting the military on streets of Britain because the police cannot cope! What message is this too terrorists? May is not up to the job. Moreover, she demoralised the police service with her vindictive attack on them in retribution for the Plebgate saga. She should have cleaned up Westminster, like Cameron promised, then Perhaps plebgate would not have happened. Westminster is still not fit for purpose, sadly this is reflected by the half-witted actions of the current Home Secretary and the PM. Does May want to still claim she has control of our borders? Is th govt gong to take any action to safe guard us or put out more veiled threats not to say anything in case it might be viewed as a hate crime FFS!
May 24, 2017
Police are guarding mosques while the army protect establishment buildings. I can’t see this ending well.
May 24, 2017
I am also quite bullish about China and especially about India. Assisted by sensible levels of taxation relative to GDP, a young population, students who aspire to be scientists, doctors, business people, computer programmers, farmers, builders and engineers. All rather unlike the UK where they seem to aspire to work as bureaucrats, lawyers, in the city or as tax accountants.
The UK used to make quite a lot of steel too until the EU and the UK governments killed most of it off, with absurd over regulation and an expensive religious energy policy – under the greencrap policies of Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron – and now May it seems judging from the high tax, greencrap, government is the solution, socialist manifesto she has just published.
May 24, 2017
What is the point of visible soldiers on the street? It just does the terrorist’s work for them and frightens people from going about their normal activities? They chance they could make any difference is virtually zero. More chance they would do more harm than good through making a mistake.
It is better intelligence that is needed, quietly and behind the scenes. Not silly visible, political gestures. What next, tanks at Heathrow like the dire warmonger Tony Blair?
May 24, 2017
And positive action based on that intelligence. It is simply not good enough to see someone as a risk and yet do nothing about it.
May 24, 2017
Absolutely dreadful decision to deploy the army. Totally wrong message that the police cannot cope. Is May and Rudd trying to scare the public witless from going out, what next, invoke a curfew? Clue: stop wasteful spending on overseas aid, HS2, Hinkley, Climate Change Act and act responsibly in accord with the office of government to provide police, proper criminal justice system and proper prison regimes. These wicked murderers do not even get life imprisonment, they get a few years at best.
Blaire was warned by the security service his invasion would increase home grown terrorism tenfold! There should be consequences for politicians like him. We read May sent the attorney general to stop legal action being taken against him. Enough of establishment cover ups and more accountability and punishment for politicians and PMs. Look at human travesty Vameron created and no action against him whatsoever. This is not a dictatorship.
May 24, 2017
Just shows what they’ve done to the police as well as the NHS, Education and the Forces in general. All very well trying to balance the books by cutting essentials until something happens, then there’s panic. What happened to the bonfire of the quangos? Ah yes, that would upset a few well heeled cronies who might actually have to do something useful.
I’d rather see soldiers at home defending us which is what they should be doing than interfering in foreign lands the politicos know nothing about.
May 24, 2017
What will they be doing, just standing around one assumes.
May 25, 2017
Patrolling. like proper policemen used to do deters the wrongdoers. Been proved time and again. Riding through the streets in BMW’s does nothing.
May 24, 2017
Both China and India are not averse to real austerity to control debt.
May 24, 2017
“I provide a blog today about an unrelated subject.”
Nonsense, Globalisation and its effects, as the title of your article suggests, is as much a part of this election (Brexit, if nothing else, has made it so) has anything else. To your credit, you did cancel your intended article yesterday, far more than some blogs and political websites did – both left and right.
May 24, 2017
The nonsense is your post Jerry
China and India are not mentionedin any political party’s manifestos and in polls asking what topics drive their voting decisions China and India and globilisation are not mentioned by the public..
May 24, 2017
Nonsense, Globalisation and its effects, as the title of your article suggests, is as much a part of this election
I disagree. The contribution of India and China to world economic growth will happen (for better or worse) whatever the result of the UK general election.
It’s possible to discuss domestic issues in a politically-neutral manner but that’s not the way the discussion will develop so it’s best to leave them alone.
Reply There was nothing in my article about the UK election.
May 24, 2017
@JR reply; Double nonsense, you yourself have in the past used the need for global trade as a political tool in the past, how is doing so today any less political, are you really saying that the UK should be protectionist, that we will neither but or sell goods from India or China. Heck when ever talking about the weather on this site is political how could trade not be?
Reply I did not mention trade or the UKs links.
May 24, 2017
JR reply; Other than for as long as I have been reading your site you have been telling us that Brexit will be great because there is a whole world out there for the UK to trade with, not just the EU27, plus given that we rely heavily on China already and increasingly on India.
No politicians actions, articles or speeches ever exist in a vacuum, even less their past actions, writings or speeches, we saw that only last Sunday on that Sky News’s “Ridge on Sunday” when Mr Corbyn was taken to task about what he had done and written 35 years ago!
May 24, 2017
More ridiculous pedantic arguments from you at this sensitive time Jerry.
The post was originally about India and China and their role in the world economy.
You sadly decide to launch an agressive attack.
Of course we are all linked together in the world economy but no mainfestos and no voters primary concerns are to do with China and India
May 24, 2017
I tend to think that the more we carry on as normal the better. The more we change our behaviour or put visible troops on to the streets then the more we are encouraging these people and doing their work for them.
May 24, 2017
According to the news today, the government are ‘carrying as normal’ by stopping visitors viewing the Houses of Parliament and stopping the Changing of the Guard. We’ve already changed our way of life with all the security checks everywhere and not being able to deport wrong doers because they’ve got a cat or something. Not complaining, just saying empty rhetoric butters no parsnips, so why don’t they just shut up and let the people get on with it. We get far too much ‘strong and stable leadership’.
May 24, 2017
Far too much “strong and stable” bossing around, nannying and being told how to run our businesses, homes, children and our lives – this by people who seem unable to run anything at all remotely well.
May 24, 2017
While they tax everyone so highly that most have little money left to invest in their business or even to live on.
May 24, 2017
graham1946
I’ve never viewed the Houses of Parliament. Too many dangerous people there.
May 25, 2017
Nor me, nor will I, but it does bring in foreign visitors money as does the Changing of the Guard. Tourism is a major industry.
May 24, 2017
@LL; I have no problem in electioneering carrying on, just trying to claim that is not what is being done.
May 24, 2017
Exactly.
May 24, 2017
I hope you also wrote to Jeremy Corbyn Jerry, who yesterday posted several tweets urging people to register to vote to enable them to vote for Labour policies. Campaigning all day.
May 24, 2017
@a-tracy; Oh stop telling porkies, or at least showing your utter ignorance of how to read Twitter….
As it happened I did look at both Mr Corbyn’s own and the Labour Parties official Twitter feeds and whilst there were tweets from Monday that unknowingly overlapped what happened in Manchester on Monday night there were no such tweets “urging people to register to vote” on Tuesday, in fact why would there be any, considering that the window to registrar closed at 23:59 Monday?!
May 24, 2017
Yes, I rechecked my twitter just now at 2130 24th May and his twitter feed shows lots of tweets with tweets showing as 1d old which looks like they were all tweeted yesterday Tuesday but when I clicked through they were posted, as you say, at 22:30, 23:00 and 23:30 on 22 May which were probably pre-timed tweets.
May 24, 2017
Do you really need to be quite so agressive Jerry?
“Utter ignorance”
Do keep calm
It’s just someone else’s opinion.
May 25, 2017
@Edward2; A spade is a spade, just as “utter ignorance” is utter ignorance, but you of all people knew that already…
May 25, 2017
Quite an innocent error of mine Edward2 lots of people retweeted JCs tweets on Tuesday after the voter registration deadline, makes you wonder why Jerry was quite so aggressive, I admit I’m not a twitter expert and these posts were appearing all day as the faithful retweeted them, it just demonstrates JC’s tweets are just automated by his team.
The Labour party are very effective at Social Media, they certainly aren’t utterly ignorant. I noticed the Channel 4 journalist criticising Tory MPs for all posting positive messages in support of TM after her TV interview as though it was wrong of them to tweet support after watching the program. I think the Tories need to get with the program of social media and get better at promoting positive policies on this medium.
May 25, 2017
Just be reasonable Jerry
Write as if you were having an actual face to face discussion with dinner guests.
May 24, 2017
No Campaigning today.
Perhaps your LibDem opposition candidate should be informed of such by his Party if this is the case, as his team were busy delivering leaflets to houses yesterday (I got one through my letterbox)
Perfectly understand the reasons for such a suspension John, which shows compassion, respect, and thought for the victims and their families, but what if we have more incidents, would we continue with the ban, and perhaps eventually cancel an election because of such continuing action.
If so then the terrorists are winning, because we have changed our pattern of life under their threat and action.
The best form of respect would be to catch and punish the bastards that are causing or planning such action, so that others are saved the pain and suffering that they and their families have had to endure.
Once this election is over, its perhaps time for a rethink on policy and the way we investigate and treat known suspects of terror.
Yes, I did think twice before I submitted this.
Reply The main parties have all agreed not to campaign and I respect that decision.
May 24, 2017
@alan jutson; In defence of any party. I got a leaflet, yesterday, from our local Independent candidate put through the door – along with a load of marketing junk mail. My point, are you sure it was the fault of the local party or caused by pre arranged delivery methods?
May 24, 2017
Jerry
The real point that I am trying to make is Politicians want us all to carry on as normal to show the terrorists they will not win, but then do exactly the opposite themselves.
If we all followed the politicians example, the Country would simply stop doing anything.
Yes of course we cannot forget what has happened, so hold a minutes silence in remembrance, before they carry on.
Sensible debate can still happen, without trading insults to one another
The leaflet, yes probably pre organised, and I did not take offence.
May 24, 2017
I was finding a report about India building another 10 nuclear power stations to improve industry and pollution when, at the side of the BBC News report, a friendly article on little Tim, the Libdum leader, popped up. It is interesting that he once took on Strong and Steady before and describes himself as a ‘big gob’. Shame most of what comes out is rubbish. Good to see the Guardianistas at the EUBC doing their job.
By the way, if the UK built 10 nuclear power stations, of the type that worked and are being built elsewhere in 5 years, we would not have to build more expensive windfarms in the sea, which will have to be renewed in 20 years time.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39859182
May 25, 2017
@Stred. Agree with you here. We would also not have the threat of sea mammals being killed as is shown here
https://wcfn.org/2017/05/23/windfarms-whale-beachings/
Or the threat of thousands of sea birds being killed by offshore wind farms off the NE coast of Scotland when they erect 4 large windfarms. The RSPB have gone to court to stop this but have been overturned. Are we really saving the planet??? It is a disgrace when the courts and government ignore the harm they are causing.
May 24, 2017
Does pointlessly putting troops onto the streets and issuing warnings of possible further attacks not count as campaigning then?
May 24, 2017
Sadiq Khan tells us to be calm because there will be an armed presence on the streets.
My. How our country has changed !
May 24, 2017
He also tells us we must accept this sort of thing (terrorism) as’part and parcel of living in a big city’.
May 24, 2017
No campaigning today.
I have just received a leaflet through my door from “Yorshire and Humber Labour Party”
May 25, 2017
The LibDems pushed a leaflet through my door yesterday.
Is there an agreement or not? Are there exeptions for some? Are the LibDems breaking the agrement?
May 24, 2017
So when will our foreign aid budget fall???
May 24, 2017
It sounds like Mr. Modi is doing his satisfactory best to create a single market, to which the UK will have access. Rejoice!
May 24, 2017
What have we been hearing? ‘We will not let them change our ways, they will not succeed’, blah, blah, blah.
Then what, the democratic process is put on hold ‘out of respect’, for two days now, what BS. What do you think they are attacking – apart from directly our children, our girls in particular in Manchester – our democracy, our way of life. If our leaders had had any real courage, instead of the pretence of it, they would have shown a decisive lead and say we will carry on, defy them, do some rounding up, some deportations, but no. What will ‘Theresa the Appeaser’ do they if for example there is an incident on polling day – call off the process?
Oh, yes, economies, and China. Mr Redwood’s friends in the City are carrying on with the sale of our businesses to foreign interests – a matter of government economic policy. I read that the bedding retailer Dreams is one of a number being set up for sale, and guess who is being groomed – the Chinese. The big companies have gone years ago, we are down to relatively small retailers now.
Maybe one day we will see just how much of our wealth is and has been drained away as a result of this in the way of retained profit and dividends, patents and the like, along with all the other ways our government allows and encourages money to be sent overseas.
May 24, 2017
World economies are either being rescued, propped up or stimulated by increasing the money supply and reducing interest rates not based on demand but on the whims of politicians and their army of self declared experts. The end result of which is the expansion of debt creating credit, malinvestment and inappropriate asset purchasing. A hedonistic binge party that ends with hangovers of gargantuan proportions from which we vow never to repeat but always do even though each hangover is more severe than the previous one. Certainly we make adjustments to the economic and financial mechanism so that the binge party can be bigger and better than the last one but with mixed results. During the party we believe we have at last found the formula that will make the party never ending. However we always find that that belief is very misplaced.
May 24, 2017
Who suffers the hangover? Certainly not the comfortable ones making these decisions or the bankers causing the failures.
The answer seems to be to stop school meals, pensioners fuel assistance, take people’s houses to pay for social care for which they were told they were paying ‘National Insurance’ for 45 years or more and dole out 13 billion in foreign aid, every penny of which is borrowed and must be paid back by our children and grandchildren and probably theirs as well.
May 24, 2017
I fell under the spell of China-India “Tiger Economies” propaganda some years ago and invested unwisely in Guangdong, got my fingers tossed and fried in a wok.
In simple terms, if India and China were so good then we would be emigrating there in droves, perhaps claiming refugee status in the event of a Corbyn election win. Instead, their own well-to-do and others are applying to go and live in Europe, Britiain,USA, Canada and just about any country on earth that has a town with one horse.
May 24, 2017
I have always avoided those two but I have found unloved Russia to be a hugely rewarding area for investment(both quoted and private equity)and short term trading over the past six-seven years.I’m not invested there at the moment but will be looking to get back in-I believe there will be major infrastructure projects over the next couple of decades plus the expected Arctic oil bonanza and the country will be a beneficiary of climate change with,possibly,the opening up of the North East sea passage which “could” have a quantum of impact similar to the opening of the Suez canal.Obviously,not for the faint of heart though!
May 24, 2017
China and the Chinese are a resolute people used to discipline and to seizing opportunity ; the views expressed by Moodys and other outside observers will not change China’s continuing march forward .
India has a long way to go before it can compete ; its educational programme languishes in the dark ages and the capability of its people suffers from lack of preparation and established business . If it can harness the power of its size it will become an attractive place to invest .
May 26, 2017
Bert Young
China population 1.387,645,572. They can’t be doing so badly or there would be less of them
May 24, 2017
Great to hear China and India doing so well and that the prospects for world growth are good- but where exactly will that leave us? This morning in the German financial circles it is reported by some banker whiz that the UK is heading for either a hard brexit or a very hard brexit. We have had the terrible bombing in Manchester with the imminent security threat from ‘home grown’, and are now facing a general election, not asked for by anyone, and then there’s the start of the brexit talks.. its nearly all too much to take in at one go? I wish someone would just lend Boris a comb.. I fear that all of this stiff upper lip stuff is not going to work this time.
May 24, 2017
There is no such thing as a very hard, hard, soft or scrambled Brexit, there is only one Brexit and that is leaving the EU in it’s entirety, which is what we voted for remember ( stay or leave ?).
May 24, 2017
jonP, Please note that when when we voted in the referendum we voted to leave the EU, as in very hard Brexit. So we’re only getting what we voted for.
Try not to be so sad; we’re in a raging bull market.
May 24, 2017
Campaigning needs to recommence but without the prime minister, Defence secretary and Home Secretary doing any electioneering because they need to concentrate on the terrorist issues. Putting up some alternative MPs with better communication skills for talk show and news slots might be a useful thing to do.
May 24, 2017
Moodys has just reduced China’s credit rating. Well it doesn’t amount to much. In addition I’m unsure just what various credit ratings are useful. The IMF and others thought we would be down and out after 23rd June 2016. We’re still managing.
I believe we know too little about China in particular. It is nothing short of a miracle anyone knows what’s going on.Our own authorities with all the technology, internet, communications, church and school in every locality, still is pretty dumb about our people.
Do Chinese local authorities for instance, rent out flats, lose contact with the occupants who have trashed it not paying rent, then refurbish them so it can happen over and over again? In short, does China also have institutionalised incompetence and stupidity at every level of its governance? We just hear of criminality and corruption in their local authorities. This is good,. in that you would expect persons dealing with mega bucks to get corrupt. Not like here. Our local authorities are peopled ( no translation into Chinese, obviously ) of Mr and Mrs Percy Perfects.
So, at least China at the govermerntal high level is very much more forthcoming in telling their shortcomings than the British government. Which, makes them infinitely more honest than HM Government.
May 24, 2017
Thank you for your article on India & China
I think we need to have a debate on National Security
We do not know how many people are in our country
We do not know who is in our country
We maintain security by being able to identify people
Those that we have identified we let go
I believe we have lost control
????????
May 24, 2017
Not sure about all this cancellation business
I have suffered deep loss personally and have great respect for others
Who’s running the Show Them or US
What about some leadership
May 24, 2017
What’s the carbon footprint and resource depletion of all this growth? Sounds like a disaster for future generations.
May 24, 2017
John, we know that over 400 UK-based ISIS fighters have returned to our shores, yet not one has been arrested. In view of the events of yesterday, the current ‘critical’ threat warning, and in the run-up to the election, I am very interested to know how the Conservative party plans to make our country safer? Apart from ‘carry on as usual’ and ‘we will not let this divide us’, and the Mayor of London’s classic ‘terrorist attacks are part of big city living’ – of course.
May 24, 2017
Point well made. I’m yet to hear any offer of an answer to this question that keeps on being made.
……?
May 24, 2017
When I turned the TV news on late yesterday I was not at all surprised to see that the BBC had turned the victims of this outrage into props for a celebration of the “this will not change our attitude towards diversity/plurality/immigration/etc” mantra with all their vox pops lined up in accord.
Assuming that the government actually wanted to do something,the cumulative effect of all the laws passed in recent decades have massively restricted the scope for action.
May 24, 2017
Indeed.
May 25, 2017
Yes, I too find all the reports and interviews etc a bit over the top. By all means report on it and tell us what happened but don’t keep getting people on the TV to describe what they feel and keep showing bands of people getting together and declaring undying love for the world. As you say, all a bit entertaining in some respects.
May 24, 2017
Its nearly time to cash in the few investments I have and make plans for departure before the whole roof falls in.. with Mrs may talking about a dementia tax where almost everything I have saved in my lifetime could be forfeit and then there’s brexit coming down the tracks with so far no alternative trade deals worked out- I am not at all convinced. Reluctantly I have come to the conclusion that might be better to be a good EU European with defined benefits than a failed UK British with large question marks always hanging? And then there’s the blogs about China, India and world growth put out probably as a distraction.. so could this all be just fake news I wonder? Yeah.. well time for a rethink!
May 24, 2017
We will be far better off out and with real control of our country & democracy. Read Dan Hannan’s book Why Vote Leave to cheer yourself up. We made the right choice. True May is clearly yet another daft Heathite, prices and incomes controls, high taxing, expensive energy, interventionist but the sensible wing can surely bring her back to reality or replace her. She seem quite good at U-Turns and many are needed from her.
Corbyn is clearly far, far, far worse so May it must be.
May 24, 2017
Arrivederci Jason.
May 24, 2017
Be careful where you go. You want to steer clear of any weak Eurozone country if you have a significant bank balance or you could get restructured and or devalued. If Corbyn gets in you might be right we’d be better of with Govt by eu bureaucrats and courts, but that seems unlikely.
May 24, 2017
I see the British Army is stood outside No 10
Why have they not raised the Security Threat level to Critical ?
May 24, 2017
Oh I see they have but did not bother to tell us
May 25, 2017
Yes, and while they are happy for men returning from Syria and fighting with ISIL to come back into the country while they pay them benefits, my next flight will be a nightmare thanks to all the security we all have to face now. The government is too soft with these people and it’s the law abiding citizens who reap the treachery.
May 24, 2017
A recent (yesterday?) issue of India Today about three years of Modi presents a somewhat more nuanced vision of India than JR’s. A lot seems to be announced by Modi’s Indian Government, not so much is actually delivered. A bit like in Britain, maybe?