The OBR who got their last year deficit forecast wrong by Ā£91bn estimate that 2023-2025 will see economic growth settle down to 1.7%,1.6% and 1.7% a year. They assume migration continues with the population expanding by 0.3% a year, a bit down on pre pandemic and pre Brexit levels, to give per capita growth of around just 1.4% a year for the 3 years. These figures are disappointingly low.
It could be that they are simply more forecasting errors. After all they underestimated GDP last year and are usually on the pessimistic side. Or it could be that they expect the Treasury to carry on following austerity, EU alignment and state debt driven policies for the next five years which would deliver similar low levels of growth to our years in the single market under the Maastricht economic rules which drove the Osborne/Hammond debt and deficit austerity policies.
The government should challenge these assumptions and work out a growth strategy to improve these forecasts. We need to put behind us the years of dependence when the UK willingly signed up to rules and systems which exported more and more of our industrial output to continental factories, made us more and more dependent on EU imported food, power and much else besides and left important parts of our economy smaller as a result.
It is high time the Treasury set itself the task of making a good improvement over the UKās performance of the last 28 years in tge single market. We now have the freedoms to do better if only we will use them.
Tomorrow on Conservative Home I will set out a possible new framework for UK economic policy in response to the government statement that it is looking to change the rules governing economic management.
April 25, 2021
Well said and looking forward to reading tomorrow’s analysis
April 25, 2021
I am not sure that forecasting and the errors around it is a key topic with everything else that is happening at the moment.
Furthermore I disagree that āIt is high time the Treasury set itself the task of making a good improvement over the UKās performance of the last 28 years in tge(sic) single market.ā
Government owns that task. If the Treasury is an obstacle then government should have people to crack the whip and deal with intransigent civil servants. Dominic Cummings, who is back in the news, used to be quite good at that.
April 25, 2021
āTomorrow on Conservative Home I will set out a possible new framework for UK economic policy …ā
Conservative Home should be sued under The Trade Descriptions Act. There is nothing conservative about it. Political has-been David Gauke is -unaccountably- a regular contributor on the site. To describe it as āwetā is a disservice to all the great wets of the past.
I will read it but I anticipate that the ācommentsā section will be mostly hostile.
April 25, 2021
I agree, can’t understand why David Gauke is a regular. Also can’t understand why when the civil service has already stated the zero carbon initiative is under budgeted by over a trillion pounds, the next step is that the introduction ZC date is hastened forward rather than delayed. It isn’t as though any of it is a necessity. Surely the position of govt should be just encouraging industry to adapt rather than spending on the unnecessary.
April 25, 2021
Rules governing economic rules governing economic policy! I know like balance the structural deficit by 2015! Then 2017, 2019, 2021 and kicked into touch forever! Or the trillion pound green deal estimated by Hammond! Your party and govt has proved beyond any doubt it is not competent to run a whelk stall! Ten years of failing to deliver on your 3 election promises. Your govt is an economic basket case. There are not enough magic money trees, nor a forest to cope with you lot.
Johnson cannot even mange his own finances let alone the country!
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
And what, if you please, has your brexit done to help growth?
April 25, 2021
Thought remain wonā¦by any social, political or economic measure weāre still in affect regulated by the EU
Our growth is directly linked to the EU, its laws, that level playing field and our adherence to the WA & NIP
April 25, 2021
+100
Reported in the papers last week EU asking US and UK not to go too fast out of lockdown or eurosceptic countries might leave!
No reason why our country is in lockdown at the moment. Please explain JR.
April 25, 2021
The only eurosceptic country has now left the EU.
I see UK is the EU no1 export market for electric cars, that’s great news for the EU
April 25, 2021
So is our release from CV-19 it seems. (Linked to the EU)
April 25, 2021
MIC
Err…”your”?
Seem to recall it was the voters’ Brexit…love it or shove it, it was a democratic decision…
Don’t like democracy? Try somewhere else…
April 25, 2021
We are out of the pandemic long before the EU !
(We could be out of lockdown too if Boris would stop listening to communists.)
April 25, 2021
So they expect immigration to continue at around 210 000 annually. That doesn’t include illegals which will probably double that.
Where does this stand with net zero, do all these people not consume and do they bring their own accommodation.
When all our industry has been offshore, where are they going to work. Where is the money going to come from for benefits, housing, flat screen TV and mobile phones.
Will they be banned from driving or eating meat or is that just for the natives.
April 25, 2021
These are questions the Politicians would prefer us not to ask. They just hope the public have not noticed that the population is growing, year by year, and although much is said, nothing is being done about it
April 25, 2021
It is a global problem, and governments faff about, making foolish noise about Year Zero or NetCarbon, instead of facing up to the fact that most of the world cannot feed and house their populations.
Either because of gross State incompetence or endemic State greed/corruption or the simple fact that much of the earth cannot provide sufficient foodstuffs for nearly 8 billion humans, the poor and the persecuted will inevitably try to make for 1st world countries.
I would like to see 1st world UN representatives stand up and publicly ask why so many nations are incapable of caring (in all senses) for their own peoples – but I won’t hold my breath.
April 25, 2021
In the UK we’d tried to do the right thing for the environment and opt for smaller families. This resulted in a booming population anyway – by choice of politicians.
April 25, 2021
Good evenring.
Not in countries where they make it very clear that illegals will be deported and those that either visit for holidays or work will not receive any benefits and, even if you had a child there said child would not be granted citizenship. These countries do not suffer that which we do because those running them care.
End of !
April 25, 2021
100% Correct
April 25, 2021
Ian Wragg
+1
April 25, 2021
It is a fact that our fellow Europeans – not migrants – coming to work here were generally young, pre-educated and trained, healthy and energetic.
As a result they contributed far more than they took in costs.
Those whom Farage etc. proudly announces will take their place from the rest of the world do not do so well by these measures, and the reverse on average has hitherto been the case.
Well done.
OWN IT.
April 25, 2021
So much for your facts MiC our statistics office were not accurate so how do you confidently state their age and contribution when they didnāt even know they were here, so they certainly werenāt collecting taxes from them or we would know surely āUp to 100,000 more EU migrants came to the UK every year than previously thought, an Oxford study suggests. The latest figures suggest successive governments have made policy decisions based on inaccurate dataā April 2021
April 25, 2021
”The UK and France have signed a ā¬31.4m (Ā£28.2m) agreement aimed at reducing the number of migrants illegally crossing the English Channel”
What I didn’t realise was that the Ā£28.2m was paid by the French to the Home Office for us to accept them ?
April 25, 2021
MiC – why were all these amazingly wonderful young/trained Europeans coming to the dreadful, backward, racist and xenophobic UK? I’m sure it had nothing to do with the high unemployment levels in certain EU countries, or the Romanian and Bulgarian criminal gangs finding lucrative pickings, no, tsk tsk, of course not.
April 25, 2021
MiC
Rubbish. Learn reallity before making such sweeping statements. Try going to work in industry and you’ll find EU workers generally don’t contribute much at all to the economy. They’re mostly unskilled labour and taken advantage of by businesses that resent paying a proper wage. The profit doesn’t go to the economy.
It is deskilling, which will bite industry hard when these people suss out they’ve been had and then go back to their own countries…..and we skilled craftsmen will bear a grudge about the abysmal way we were treated and we’ll tell them to go & whistle.
That same scenario has happened in other countries, and will happen here too. What goes around comes around.
April 25, 2021
MiC
What data do you have for your claim that they all contributed more than they cost?
Why isn’t GDP per capita not rising greatly?
April 25, 2021
Please discuss crime and dependency. How many doctors did we get per car washer ?
April 25, 2021
MIC
And they shall not grow old, or ill…
April 25, 2021
Indeed. These massive numbers of immigrants dont have a carbon footprint, dont need any health, housing or educational needs. In fact many leave their culture, religion and belief system at the point of entry. Their arrival hasn’t impacted the indigenous people, particularly the English. Our politicos just keep telling us how wonderful they are, but just in case they introduce equality laws and tell us we’re little Englanders and a whole raft of unpleasant names. Our political system is broken and none of the legacies represent the indigenous people, reflect their views or act on their concerns. We have all seen the double standards by politicos and our police, public a d health providers over the last year. None of the above is the best way to cast our votes.
April 25, 2021
I am less concerned with what the OBR may forcast than with what the rest of government is not doing to facilitate an acceleration of business in the post Brexit and Covid climate. Government should be a facilitator,not a director of business. Too often they wish to direct from a position of ignorance, witness the automotive industrg for example. Liz Truss and colleagues are facilitating very well, but where are the HM Treasury in backing the process. HMT have run a very good programme of finger in the dam measures to counter Covid. They now need to lubricate through tax removal and reduction to encourage investment. I don’t mean the sort from overseas speculators picking ripe fruit. Those from outside should be encouraged to set up here from their own successful businesses. UK inventiveness should be backed from home. A basic HMT mistake is to ignore Ireland’s 12.5% Corporation Tax while pushing our equivalent in the opposite direction to double that. That is not a positive post Brexit/Covid message.
April 25, 2021
agricola: seconded.
April 25, 2021
Yes, quite agree. I may have missed it, but I’m still waiting to read of all the EU laws and regulations that are to be removed, and the benefits that result. I know government has been preoccupied, but surely there is a ‘future legislation’ office in each department that was tasked with looking for all those EU stipulated impediments to business activity that affect their area of responsibility?
April 25, 2021
Peter Wood
“Iām still waiting to read of all the EU laws and regulations that are to be removed”
Not a chance. Everyone knew it would be BRINO the minute Theresa May enshrined EU law into English law.
Best strategy Peter is to refuse to accept EU derived laws where possible, don’t buy EU goods or foods – buy only British, and do your bit to showing these traitors how it works at the next general election.
Trust me you won’t go hungry and you’ll have your day at the ballot box.
April 25, 2021
Ah, lots of growth and new industries, that old chestnut. A lot easier said than done Sir John. Much easier to invest in property.
Wall to wall factories knocking out electric cars and windmills? Apart from the endless whining over planning permissions there is small matter of economics. Too expensive to do that sort of thing here, Singapore-on-Thames was always a non-runner.
Or we do clever stuff. Very good work if you can get it. But requires ed-you-kay-shun, not so easy to hammer higher maths or higher culture into young skulls. Perhaps a little creativity, a bit beyond the Blue Peter painted bog rolls. A restoration of theatre trips and art galleries and even foreign trips for little ones. Education that means anything requires classrooms and the wider social environment and the hope of a decent job. A 20 year project Sir John.
Never mind, there should be a good supply of ex BTL doer-uppers coming on the market soon. Good for a spot bodger building, about the only growth we will be seeing.
April 25, 2021
cruel .. but true
April 25, 2021
Jim
“Ah, lots of growth and new industries, that old chestnut.”
Yeah it’s all baloney.
April 25, 2021
Growth is easy to produce in the UK. Just cull parasitic unproductive jobs and release these people to fine real ones. Most of these jobs are in the state sector but many in compliance, law, hr, health and safety in the private sector due to damaging regulations, over complex tax codes and idiotic employment laws.
So many of these jobs in the UK almost 50% of them. Easy fire mean people will hire far more people. So all we need is cheap energy, easy hire and fire, huge deregulation, no green lunacy, cancel HS2, cull about half of the state sector, far lower simpler taxes, cull nearly all university cheap loans and all the duff degrees (at least 50% are). Stop paying people not to encourage them not to work.
April 25, 2021
@LL; So what Mr Life wants is yet more of the same failed polices of the recent past, not the proven polices of old. What he fails to grasp is that even what he might call ‘non-job’, public sector jobs feed money into the wider economy that then goes on to buy new cars, new homes, new white goods etc.
April 25, 2021
Oh dear! Economics really isn’t your subject is it?
April 25, 2021
Public sector jobs might feed money through the system by transactions but they don’t create profit. It’s creating profit which raises GDP. The UK already has the highest tax levels since virtually WW2 yet there’s talk of a wealth tax on top. Switzerland provides a far better democratic and wealth wealth generating template than statist Germany (which we’ve been hitched to for decades), and Switzerland has a wealth tax, but the point is that there are Cantons in Switzerland with no tax at all, and there’s no capital gains tax. I’m afraid low rates or growth coupled with immigration of vast quantities of even native illiterate, are not a platform for adding more tax.
April 25, 2021
@Mary Fountain; “Public sector jobs might feed money through the system by transactions but they donāt create profit.”
What, the car companies, for example did not make any profit from selling their commercial vesicles to the public sector, such as the GPO etc, or any profit from selling their cars to public sector employees, nor companies who sold white goods etc, and of course each and ever every one of those private sector companies had to employ people who in turn paid ‘real’ taxes, and in turn bought cars, white and brown household products etc. Some need to get out of their economic tunnels, their wide vision is being affected, economics is more than that shopping basket from 1979.
April 25, 2021
I agree Jerry… Any money that goes into the system has the potential to make profit ; perhaps the argument should be makes profit for whom? There is something wrong with economics when it doesn’t take into account all monies in the system. It reminds me of doing various dissertations where tutors encouraged us to focus , thereby leaving important facts out which could change the sway of the argument.
April 25, 2021
Jerry
“public sector jobs feed money into the wider economy that then goes on to buy new cars, new homes, new white goods etc”
In my experience all public sector jobs seem to do is enforce unpopular laws that make ordinary people’s lives a misery. Local authorities and their (arguably illegal) bus lanes being an example. The revenue from which keeps fat cats in city hall with their big pensions, what’s left gets wasted on cycle lanes that cyclists don’t use, destruction of historical city architecture and replacement by concrete monstrosities, oh and bung in the usual unecessary road works and contracted out piss-poor traffic management.
April 26, 2021
@steve; Then you do not have a first clue what the public sector is, clue it is not just the Civil Service and local govt!
April 25, 2021
Yes but the money they are paid with is first ātakenā (under threat) off people who would almost certainly have done something rather better with it. Much is wasted in collection and distribution too.
April 26, 2021
@LL; Your usual anti taxation rant, what ever the level of taxation, you would want it cut, if it stood at 1% you would expect it cut to 0.5%, or would expect equivalence via tax rebates.
April 26, 2021
‘even what he might call ānon-jobā, public sector jobs feed money into the wider economy that then goes on to buy new cars, new homes, new white goods etc.’ Yes, but only a small fraction of what might have been done by leaving the money with the original taxpayer. And perhaps the now unemployed ‘non-jobbers’ might seek productive work powered by this unfiltered, no longer confiscated wealth?
April 27, 2021
@Wessexboy; Oh dear… You need to talk to companies supplying the MOD, for example, you also need to broaden your reading, not just worship the (failed) teachings of Monetarist theory.
April 25, 2021
Your suggestions may be laudable but they are unrealistic at present in terms of political achievability. We need to think about how we can move the political debate to a more sensible and rational basis first. Some challenge, given the main political parties largely think the same now, and the broadcast media is similarly enamoured with the politics of the Western global elites.
April 25, 2021
PETER HITCHENS today: This green revolution will turn Britain into a Third World country.
April 25, 2021
@LL; That’s the goal, if you ca’t level up, level down…
April 25, 2021
Many will level down – those levelling up will tell others to level down…. Harry Antionette springs to mind. And another princess whom I shall not name as she seems to be the most powerful person in the land at the moment.
April 25, 2021
Peter Hitchins (Politics & Philosophy, York) – that well known expert on science, engineering, technology, commerce and industry?
April 25, 2021
dixie,
Are you Mr. Lifelogic in disguise ?
Or are there even more strange people on here cataloguing everybody by university attended and studies?
April 25, 2021
Well even some art graduates can on occasions get things right. They are not infallibly wrong. Many poor āscientistsā also get very many things wrong or are bought as we see with climate alarmism and āclimate scienceā . JR for example is right about 98% of the time though being a member of parliament he does have to pull his punches rather too often.
April 25, 2021
Have to agree, some common sense reasoning from Hitchens this morning, (not before time) I see he has rejected Smart meters being fitted to his own house as well, something else I have in common, simply because I think they are not very Smart, and are a waste of time and money in my view.
April 25, 2021
They aren’t meant to be smart for the co su.er, they are remotely switchable so you can be turned off during periods of high demand and can do flexible billing, charging extra during peak periods.
April 26, 2021
The Green Revolution is a direct result of the west running out of oil and gas and facing dependency on major surplus countries like Russia,Iran, Venezuela,etc.The alternative strategy is regime change in those countries-and that’s not going well is it?(I see the west’s intended for Russia,Navalny,has stopped his “hunger strike” following the dismal turnout for his rally-and,possibly,the earlier release of film of his people meeting British agents in Moscow and discussing funding).
Interesting that while the UK complains of Germany and Nordstream II,nine of the ten LNG deliveries the UK has received this year have come from Russia and the US has been buying increasing quantities of Russian oil to offset the effect of sanctions on Venezuela-Russia moved up from 4th to 3rd place in the table of suppliers in 2020,overtaking Saudi. The US is not self-sufficient despite Trump’s boast.
April 25, 2021
LL. +1
April 25, 2021
Isnāt it interesting that in 2019 (pre-Covid) the UK is thought to have exported about Ā£330bn worth of services, Ā£130bn to the EU27 countries, Ā£200bn to non-EU countries?
And those are the services (representing roughly 80% of the UK GDP) that some here would like to cull by, what, 50 %. Arenāt they clever?
April 25, 2021
āPEOPLE accused of hate incidents that are not crimes should have the allegation wiped from their record, Priti Patel will tell police chiefs as she launches a review into the policyā
About time Priti.
April 25, 2021
Full of sound and fury signifying not a lot!
About time yes…but believe it when we see it!
April 25, 2021
Priti tends to promise alot but will she deliver? So far I’m not impressed.
April 25, 2021
Spot On – and sadly the norm from our government….remember Boris and the NI paperwork and Irish Sea border, the HS2 reviews, saving our fishermen etc etc
April 25, 2021
Priti Useless always talks tough and delivers nothing. Any update on boat people and their deportations Sir John?
April 25, 2021
FuS
Re Ms Patel :
Still got dinghy people coming across, aided by the French.
Dinghy people still in England that should have been sent back to France.
Tells me how I should be voting next time.
April 25, 2021
All talk. It won’t happen.
April 25, 2021
I hadn’t seen that, but +1
April 25, 2021
‘Should’? Must!
April 25, 2021
Check out Jordan Peterson’s “Critique of the Communist Manifesto” on youtube, and get politicians to start saying it!
Stop the state spending so much money, and allow individuals to spend more of the national wealth.
Give people freedom of choice in more aspects of their life, stop the state rationing and allocating in far too many aspects of their life from schools, to doctors, to housing.
Stop manipulating the economy.
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
The biggest slices of money the state spends go on old people.
Pensions – a massive expense. Social and additional health care for the old – another massive expense. Pensioner perks too, like free bus passes – yet more money for the old.
Cutting this wasteful spending would be transformative. It makes up close to half of all state spending. Iād axe it all tomorrow and properly cut taxes for everybody else.
But you lot seem wedded to the idea that fringe cuts like EU contributions or cutting international aid will make a difference. They wonāt. Both of these are pocket money. Loose change compare with the vast sums we hand out to pensioners. And pensioners are the wealthiest demographic in the country too.
It does not fit the Tory right narrative at all. This narrative tells you all that everybody else is a massive drain on the state. Actually all of you are the problem. Why did you not properly save in private pensions for your own old age? Why do you expect the rest of us to fund your handouts -worth hundreds of pounds a week?
Blairās government introduced a wonderful policy where each child was given Ā£250 at birth which could invested to help them when they became 18. The Tories axed it because it was ātoo expensiveā. A one off Ā£250 gift for kids is too expansive but handouts worth hundreds of pounds per week for the old are not.
We has never received any child benefit for our children. We earn too much. Our taxes fund all of you instead.
April 25, 2021
So it’s ok for the taxpayer to cough up Ā£250 a year for 18 years for all children, but your not in favour of parents leaving their own kids an inheritance saved out of a taxed income.
Funny old World. !
April 25, 2021
The old uns you seem to hate were young once – and in those days they paid more into the Treasury than they were taking out. Give it a rest!
April 25, 2021
Everyone can receive child benefit. If you earn over Ā£50k you can still get it but pay more tax. You have to inform the authorities if you don’t want child benefit . So your choice Andy.
April 25, 2021
When did old people surpass gangstas as the #1 enemy in the UK ?
April 25, 2021
Andy,
I entirely agree!
Cut taxes, allow people to invest for their old age, take responsibility for their own children…pay back those who paid into the State system (adjusted for inflation and interest, of course…)…
Oh…hang on! No…the State cannot afford it…because it didn’t create a proper fund to pay for it all. It created a Ponzi scheme…usually deemed illegal….
April 25, 2021
State pensions account for 11% of public spending. In the past we have contributed 100% of government income.
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
The Treasury, the OBR and all the other administrative leeches who feed off the taxpayer are irrelevant to the efficient functioning of any private sector business. All the great companies we see today are in existence thanks not to the parasitic, sclerotic State but to their founders who had the idea, drive and energy to build something from nothing.
Politicians, bureaucrats and this now openly Socialist State endorsed by you Mr Redwood are the roadblock to economic growth
The State is determined to protect itself and expand its influence in our lives, Yes, the EU sees the Treasury and OBR etc etc as allies in their war to place limits upon the British economy but that shouldn’t detract from the fact that today we are facing a political State that has become a vested interest in its own right, to defend its role and the various political, party and union interests who feed off us
Reform the State, slash debt by slashing public sector spending and unleash the private sector unencumbered by the nasty and oppressive British political class that has decided that they now rule the roost
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
@DOM; Abolish democratic government in other words…
April 25, 2021
If it were democratic government would be doing what voters want.
April 25, 2021
@SecretPeople; Who says government are not doing as the majority want, we will know the answer at the next election, not by-way of the most recent rabble – after all only 18 months or so ago the largest rabble was Extinction Rebellion. Why do so many on the wings or politics always have such difficulty understanding how democracy works?
April 25, 2021
Jerry
“Who says government are not doing as the majority want”
…….everyone who voted for them at the last election.
April 26, 2021
@steve; You mean you (or someone) has asked them, all 13,966,454 of them, wow! Or is that just someone’s projected opinion, as I said, we will know at the next election….
April 25, 2021
I don’t think DOM has that in mind. None of the current political parties are interested in acting in the interests of the people who vote for them. Brexit was brought about by an unfortunate, for him, decision by David Cameron, combined with a single theme political party that did recognise the needs of the electorate.
In this vacumm there is space for a party that trusts the electorate to know what it wants, ascertained by referendum. A party that carries out the wishes of the people.
Those that think the establishment has suffered anything more than a few wounds are delusioned. The E are there fighting to minimise the desires of the electorate whenever they clash with their own. They have the power in all the ministries, quangos, banks, vested interest bodies, BBC, and judiciary. One setback like Brexit has not produced their surrender.
As long as we tolerate the current political parties, thinking they will right the wrongs we constantly identify in this diary, the longer will those problems perpetuate themselves. Democracy is not a finished product.
April 25, 2021
@agricola; If the electorate are so disillusioned, as many claim, why did so many turn out and vote, turnout in Dec 2019 was 67.3% [1], not exactly the low turnouts we had in the EP elections, nor the traditionally low figures from local elections when no other ballot were being held. Are you seriously suggesting a majority of voters were voting for parties, manifestos, they actively disagreed with? Nor can it all be explained away by dissatisfaction with Brexit, after all this site along with many others was full of the arguments about just what had been voted for back in 2016 – Mrs May was quite correct, “Brexit means Brexit”, only trouble, ask 100 people what it means and you’ll get 101 different answers…
As for @DOM, he wants his way and his way only, the thought of anything other brings a foul mouthed rant, what he wants appears to be the definition of Autocracy. š
[1] slightly down on 2017 but then how many were by then getting election weary
April 25, 2021
jerry,
ā If the electorate are so disillusioned, as many claim, why did so many turn out and vote…ā
That can happen if a prominent candidate makes promises but then fails to deliver – or, worse still, abandons any of the policies for which he was elected.
In Borisā case promise to deliver Brexit against a strongly entrenched Remain establishment. Then, once elected, simply polish up Mayās hopeless Agreement; get it rapidly signed off (by the U.K. parliament) and then completely forget about the issue. Any complaints are met statements and promises. If post Brexit negotiations turn bad, wheel out Lord Frost to create good press. You can always ignore anything he says. On no account move to WTO terms.
Do likewise for other issues like crime, immigration etc. Meanwhile spend vast sums allegedly on account of covid – which sets you nicely with the Davos set and a life after politics.
April 25, 2021
Jerry people vote in hope and a belief that manifestos are pledges. It is the way they mostly conduct their lives but it is not the way of a majority of politicians. I think the last election was a last desperate determination of view after the appalling conduct of May and the dire prospect of putting a revolutionary into No 10. Boris was well aware of what was needed from Brexit , but Covid came out of the blue. It appears that the negotiated Brexit falls well short of expectation so it is unfinished business. Freedom from Covid is tangible. Now is the time to set out the battle plan for recovery. Apart from the work of Liz Truss there is little sign of that plan. My contention is that apart from an economic recovery plan we need indications that all the problems we highlight here are in hand for resolution. For instance what is the plan for that mouthpiece of the Guardian we call the BBC. My best guess is we will be in the same place in ten years.
April 25, 2021
DOM +1
April 25, 2021
This is in line with my thinking.
April 25, 2021
Due to the governments draconian lockdown control ‘freakery’ rules (for a virus with a 99% survival rate), nearly a million jobs have been destroyed, thousands of businesses have gone to the wall, but the government still wants, as Ian Wragg rightly notes, about 500,000 more migrants a year. It appears this is the only area they don’t want to control!
Where are these newcomers going to work, where are they going to live? Despite their ‘pie in the sky’ idiocy, there is no getting away from the fact, the UK is a finite land mass, but they want, for some insane reason to have an infinite number of people on it! Why, and when are they going to ask the electorate if they actually want this?
And just how is Johnson and his fellow nut nut clique going to reconcile this, with their latest wheeze to achieve net zero carbon on our northern hemisphere finite landmass, as much of it will need to be covered with wind turbines and acres of plastic for solar farms?
Lack of joined-up thinking has always been a problem for politicians when they attempt to ‘sell’ stupidity to ‘joe public’ and they wonder why they get negative reactions.
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
@J Bush; “for a virus with a 99% survival rate”
Tell that to the 100% of family who have lost loved ones to a totally preventable virus that can only spread via close social contact or bad social/personal hygiene! Your logic is akin to saying there is nothing wrong with deteriorating nuclear weapons because 99% of other countries/areas are not obliterated.
April 25, 2021
On the basis of average age-of-death figures from or with Covid, Jerry, this family might well say : ‘Well, s/he was 82 and had a good innings. S/he cared about society and wouldn’t have wanted the grandchildren’s education and job prospects wrecked for his/her sake. Also, we know that there was at least one other contributing cause on the death certificate.’ Of course all deaths are sad for those affected, but that’s the average picture, as you will know if you’ve been keeping up.
April 25, 2021
@Richard II; OK, tell that to the 100% of those who have lost a much loved, economically active, member of the family under the age of 67. Sly stats can be used by both sides of an argument!
āWell, s/he was 82 and had a good innings. S/he cared about society and wouldnāt have wanted the grandchildrenās education and job prospects wrecked for his/her sake.
I doubt many relatives would simply shrug their shoulders and say as you suggest, for a NEEDLESS, totally PREVENTABLE death, even if another treatable co-morbidity is present, especaily for those who have a terminal illness were each day is a bonus. Just look at how many have complained, including some via this site, about relatives lost to Covid-19 in nursing homes.
April 25, 2021
According to the government I am in one of the top ‘at risk’ groups, with siblings even older. My daughter has severe co-morbidities, but there is no way any of us agree to destroying other peoples livelihoods, children’s education and the rights of others to freely associate with their families and friends, so we might live a tad longer. Applying that argument is one of the disgusting and most selfish reasons used, with the governments slogan of ‘save granny’ the most disgusting of all.
So please do not preach at me, in an attempt to make me feel guilty for my opinion.
April 27, 2021
@J Bush; If a few home-truths makes you feel guilty then perhaps you need to have that talk with your inner-self…
Want others to stop preaching to you, then you need to stop preaching yourself, just because your family are prepared to become Martyrs, on the Alter of capitalism, from a wholly preventable viral infection do not assume others think likewise -they almost certainly do not, if opinion polls and MSM front pages are anything to go by.
April 25, 2021
A preventable virus only preventable by the destruction of society and social contact.
Caused by Communism and now, we’re being told, can only be solved by Communism.
The fatalities are actually a fraction of 1% and most of those have identifiable co-morbidities and can be shielded.
Luckily for you, Jerry, you have Boris in charge (or rather two women in charge of him !) so your life crushing policies carry.
When furlough ends that riot yesterday is going to look like a tea party.
The worst PM and government in this country’s history. Disastrous.
April 26, 2021
@NLA; Yours is nonsense on stilts, as both Australia and NZ prove.
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
It appears this is the only area they donāt want to control!
Oh they are in the business of control, but on whose behalf.
When they need action they pass laws by SI and guidance commentary and then send in the enforcers. BINO treaty rammed through. Other treaties signed no one voted for in a referendum or manifesto.
Vaccine passports, linked to payments applications, ban cash. Other surveillance and a fully funded propaganda outlet. But they are not into control.
Dilute the population and intentionally weaken cohesiveness as we are the threat they wish to quell.
Our oversized “democrats in name only” dont do much in the way of honouring manifesto’s. Lets have legal controls on them so they have to honour manifestos. Penalties being a reduced term, prorata the importance they allocate during the election.
April 26, 2021
Anon
I fully agree, but there is no way they will admit that. All I and others have done by saying they don’t want to control immigration is to basically throw down the gauntlet and challenge them to prove us wrong.
They have now dug themselves into a hole of their making, where they are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t. Serves them right for their obnoxiously deviant inane social engineering.
April 25, 2021
The Johnson government appears to think it will get “growth” by sponsoring/subsidising businesses that pursue its “net zero” green agenda. It will have the opposite effect. The UK, like the EU, has abandoned common sense, has shut down productive industries (China now houses many of them) and has burdened itself with future promises of social security benefits it cannot afford or pay for. It can take years to build a new business based on new or emerging technology. It requires extreme patience from those funding it. The UK tax and business environment is unfriendly to the point of hostile to such endeavours. And the man in charge (Johnson) is clueless about the process.
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
@Oldtimer; At one time those who believed in mechanisation, those who believed in the steam engine, and later the IC engine, were called mad, told they had abandoned common sense, except it is those who have become known as “Luddite’s”.
April 25, 2021
You employ the leftist derogatory interpretation of the word Luddite.
The true meaning is one who fears ( rightly) that technology will rob him of his livelihood.
We now see technocrats destroying our jobs and our dignity. And more to come no doubt.
No one ( take note MPs, whatever the promises) will be left behind.
April 26, 2021
@EH; So dictionary’s are “Lefties” now, you get ever more shrill with every rant!
“The true meaning is one who fears ( rightly) that technology will rob him of his livelihood.”
The Luddite’s were wrong to fear the lost of their livelihoods, yes some of their existing skill-sets vanished but the new technology brought both plentiful work for those who couldn’t be bothered to lean (new) skills and well paid work/advancement for those who could. In fact the same argument, supported by the hard right, was used from the mid 1970s as automation (robotics) and computers started to do the more mundane jobs, welding car bodies, DTP replacing typing pools etc. Humans doing the more interesting, better paid, jobs.
April 26, 2021
You are funny, EH, with your not so subtle distinguo between technology and technocrat.
The textile workers to which the Luddite label was given were complaining about the machines in the textile mills that were ādestroying their jobs and their dignityā. So now please tell me what is according to you the right(-wing) or the left-wing interpretation of āLudditeā. With examples, please.
I am always keen on learning from my betters.
Or is it simply that you fear a new technology, particularly one you do not know a thing about and refuse to inform yourself about? (I am a bit harsh with you, EH. My ādiatribeā could be applied to a number of the distinguished people writing (on) this blog).
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
They want to export our carbon footprint because they believe in that religion. They dont mind that the Chinese, India and the 3rd world are laughing at them for exporting our industry and wealth creation. If we keep voting for them they’ll keep doing it.
April 25, 2021
Alas, although “We now have the freedoms to do better if only we will use them” we seem to lack the will or the vision or both.
Eurointelligence’s Wolfgang MĆ¼nchau (pro-remain enthusiast) opined recently that the best economic argument against Brexit is the one that was never made: that a UK government under either Labour or the Conservatives is unlikely to make best out of the opportunities for regulatory divergence.
Do the BEIS and the Government generally know of Ludwig Erhard?
April 25, 2021
The Remain campaign made the error of running Project Fear. They should have run Project Incompetence, and told everyone the parties they voted for need the EU to tell them what to do, because they don’t have a clue. Telling everyone they are useless was a level of honesty the politicians weren’t prepared to declare.
April 25, 2021
Your post sadly made me smile, a lot of unfortunate truth in what you outline.
April 25, 2021
Useless and irrelevant. In 2010 the neither the Conservative Party or the Labour Party had a working majority. It took time to form and government and, in that time, the nation continued as before without one. The lights never went out. There was food on the shelfs. And life carried on. In short – we do not need them !
April 25, 2021
Agree……just look out the window, nothing has changed
April 25, 2021
You are absolutely right Sir John, however the Commission in Brussels have known for years that as a nation we were not fully committed to being a member of the EU. So, as you stated in your penultimate paragraph, they set about a continuous and concerted campaign to weaken this country and make us totally reliant on the other members. Fortunately we woke up in time and are now free, but there is a huge number of central government employees who are scared stiff about this country striking out into the world and being in charge of our destiny.
As I have said in a previous comment it will take years for those with this mind-set to retire. In the meantime, we must encourage the next generation to expand their view and encompass the wealth of opportunity that lies in front of us throughout the world.
April 25, 2021
“After all [the OBR] underestimated GDP last year and are usually on the pessimistic side.”
Surely better on the pessimistic side than being overly optimistic and wrong?
April 25, 2021
As for our hosts third paragraph, indeed, let’s finally leave behind the many mistaken economic, political polices & social ideals of the 1980s.
As for Maastricht, that Treaty was a child of the Single European Act, its-self a child of the Treaty of Rome. SEA was fully supported by Mrs Thatcher, if not the first-draft approved by her, full of monetarist ideals. Had Maastricht not also contained a social-chapter and the wish for a currency union is there any (unbiased) doubt that Mrs Thatcher would have been in full support too. She was not saying “no” to a revised treaty, she said No! No! No! to previously specific named aspects of the proposed treaty; the social chapter, a single currency and the EU being the executive, listen (or read) what she said at the despatch box.
The UK is, after fifty years of failed polices, faced with having to conduct a massive political U-Turn and, due to the social and (physical) economic damage done, will need to enact the sort of industrial reconstruction both Germany and Japan once had to embrace. Fifty wasted years on the Alter of ‘European Togetherness’ that many (left or right) never wanted, sold on successive and bigger lies. š„
April 25, 2021
Jerry
+1
April 25, 2021
A well drafted piece, which I support
April 25, 2021
Well JR ..if they truly do away with distancing and masks…
Get a loudhailer and a tall step ladder and blast the ******s with your framework and then go round and whisper it in every ear! Oh and do a Wittenberg with a huger poster!
How can we have a situation where the ideas of those with an iota of sense are overlooked by the insane?
MAKE them listen!
(If DC accuses BJ of causing many deaths ( as suggested by MSM) …how can BJ now downplay death numbers …having laid waster the country? Heāll have to find a scapegoat and blame the whole escapade on inefficiency….or something!)
April 25, 2021
Stop flaying about. The Chinese caused the Covid death toll through sloppy processes in Wuhan and the tragedy continues worldwide. Remember that when next you buy a mobile or a bottle of chilli sauce.
April 25, 2021
Isnāt that a conspiracy theory?
Soy sauce more appropriate or pandas maybe?
April 25, 2021
And isnāt it ā flailingā?
I wasnāt considering skinning anyone alive, although I believe flail can mean beat or some such.
Oh sorry…your Chinese deviceās predictive text?
April 25, 2021
Occams razor, it was likely a lab release of a virus being manipulated.
What research was being done in the lab that was previously published and also unpublished. Who were the staff? Are they all alive? Who funded the lab? Who approved said funding and why? Who were the individuals involved? Which governments approved the spend and ensured it didn’t contravene any laws or ethical considerations.
Once you answer all of those questions you might have an answer to why the government reacted so ineptly and without a common sense balance.
Open borders from red zones but extreme lockdown measures applied to remote outdoor activities like walking in the country.
If it ryhmes with a totalitarian dictat of a global nature then it probably is. But who votes them out?
April 25, 2021
In answer to your 2nd para question the lobby fodder numbers are high and the free thinkers are low in number.
April 25, 2021
Obviously.
Hence the need for strident free thinkers!
April 25, 2021
@EH; “How can we have a situation where the ideas of those with an iota of sense are overlooked by the insane?”
Simple, those who “get a loudhailer and a tall step ladder”, thus shout the loudest, get elected, regardless of detailed scrutiny. š
As for excess deaths, if there are any, how have been caused by those who did (and still do) not want lock-downs, Social distancing, masks etc. A virus that can not spread does not infect, and a virus that does on infect can not kill. An fully functioning but empty hospital has never turned away a cancer patient, nor someone needing joint replacements, not even fully elective procedures, a hospital full to capacity with people suffering from a socially preventable viral infection might well have to turn away all other patients.
April 25, 2021
So true Jerry.
April 25, 2021
What do you know about hospitals, Jerry, that e.g. the chief officer at the North Wales Community Health Council, Geoff Ryall-Harvey doesn’t? He was reported last year in the Wrexham local paper The Leader as warning that “We’re hearing a lot of concern from people who were due tests months ago for urgent things like cancer and still haven’t had them”. At just one hospital in that area over 19,000 appointments were cancelled in the period January 1 and July 31 2020 alone. A Health Board spokesperson said: “Patients will need to be prepared for longer waits than anticipated prior to the Covid-19 pandemic”.
Just one hospital? No, the BMA said last July: “The BMAās research and survey reveal a catastrophic drop in elective procedures, urgent cancer referrals, first cancer treatments and outpatient appointments. Millions of patients living with often life-threatening conditions such as cancer, have had treatment postponed or cancelled.”
What was that about step-ladders and loudhailers? I think you should come down off yours first.
April 25, 2021
+1
April 25, 2021
@Philip P; Try actually understanding what I, and others, have said for pity sake.
What do you not understand about the fact, if a hospital is snowed under by patients with a viral infection, perhaps the virus even becoming airborne within the hospital, it stands to reason anything other than similarly afflicted patients are likely to be turned away, regardless of capacity.
I might well ask you what you know about hospitals, about virology. That last thing you want to do with a (possibly) seriously ill person/patient, someone who might already have an autoimmune issue, for example someone with cancer, is to expose them to a another serious illness, such as viral infections. You totally misunderstood what that Community Health CO was saying, “Patients will need to be prepared for longer waits than anticipated prior to the Covid-19 pandemicā, indeed, and all because some refused to modify the way they conducted their lives back this time last year, meaning infections increased and hospitals filled up with Covid-19 cases, with staff perhaps being redeployed (away from non Covid wards).
April 25, 2021
+1
I was on the priority list for a hip replacement, and around January – February last year I was contacted and asked if I would consider postponement. At the time we didn’t know how bad this virus was going to be and if someone was in more dire need, I offered to relinquish my place on the list for them. I was thanked for this.
However, hindsight is marvellous, there has been no pandemic, the statistics support this, despite what the government and its bosses SAGE say, and my place was not offered to another, as all operations were cancelled and the chances of me getting my hip replacement is nil.
April 25, 2021
+1
April 26, 2021
@J Bush; “However, hindsight is marvellous, there has been no pandemic,”
127,000+ families would disagree, and that is in the UK alone, by that measure alone it is a epidemic, the fact that similar numbers have died in other major economic countries tells us this viral outbreak is a pandemic. Tell us, how many would need to have died before you would call this a pandemic?
“my place was not offered to another, as all operations were cancelled and the chances of me getting my hip replacement is nil.”
Well some will never need their’s, now being 6ft down or a pile of ashes….
April 25, 2021
No…we have the elected in place.
It will take a hero to displace them.
And those in power are responsible for countless deaths, not because of what they have not done…rather the reverse.
And I am certain that all in government (or even connected to it) know that.
There are many cats to let out of bags I dare say.
April 25, 2021
Did it all start with the predicted foot and mouth disease which led to the utterly cruel decimation of our dairy industry?
( or was that just convenient for globalist policies? Or french dairy?).
Not to mention the humiliation of the last year.
These stupid models just donāt work!!
And politicians donāt learn.
Just because they have been ordered to become a technocracy!
Trust the science…
NO!
April 25, 2021
Sounds like the OBR is still using it’s anti-Brexit calculator.
Or perhaps they were adding in the effects of the disastrous green policies currently being pursued, that will totally wipe out any real potential we have.
April 25, 2021
It is certainly the case that there have been some disruptions due to Brexit, even though we can now clearly see that all the main prognoses of project fear have turned out to be nonsense. Brexit has also caused diplomatic froidure with our neighbouring allies and trading partners.
So the govt and the Conservative Party more generally ought to be feeling a lot more pressure than they seem to be to make use of the opportunities of Brexit so people can start to see its potential. Otherwise itās going to be an easy hit for opposition parties at the next election to ask what the point of Brexit was, what has been done which couldnāt have been done even in the EU, and propose re-joining EEA/EFTA. A course of action which would not need a referendum. And one which, in such circs, will be very difficult to argue against.
April 25, 2021
Far from it. The damage you have done is worse than anybody predicted. The reason there are no lorry queues is because many exports have simply stopped.
None of us thought that even you mob of charlatans would be incompetent enough to impose sanctions on ourselves.
April 25, 2021
Check the numbers. You are wrong. Again.
The jury is out.
April 25, 2021
Andy
Exports are almost back to pre January levels.
Still no queues as you predicted.
Still no empty shelves as you predicted
April 25, 2021
You keep saying that, Andy. Untrue claims are all that Remainers have left.
April 25, 2021
A ‘mob’ is BLM and XR.
They bypass votes.
April 25, 2021
You claim to care about growth and yet you support Brexit. It is economic illiteracy in the extreme.
April 25, 2021
Growth is predicted by IMF and our own ONS for post Brexit Britain.
No different to EU nations.
April 25, 2021
Really? More regulation imposed by our competitors in foreign countries would actually improve growth?
Maybe it’s time for Andy to suggest some *mechanism* by which belonging to the EU would improve growth. And I mean in the long term, not just them confiscating fewer ham sandwiches and generally being obstructive.
What possible attraction would EU membership have for us when the rest of the World is growing an order of magnitude faster than the EU? Do we need to be “led” by a grouping that can’t even design its own vaccines?
April 25, 2021
I don’t actually care about growth. It is bad for the environment.
I wanted stability.
April 25, 2021
Whatever!
April 25, 2021
There was no austerity during the Osborne/Hammond years. The government borrowed and spent just the same as before and since.
Rather than speculate about growth, make plans on the assumption that there will be no growth. If there is, well the next generation can be relieved a little of the debt burden they will inherit.
April 25, 2021
“The OBR who got their last year deficit forecast wrong by Ā£91bn estimate”
Because they never know how much people are going to save. Why their brexit forecasts were nonsense.
The budget “deficit ” is the non government sectors “surplus”.
The national debt is just that ” surplus” moved into an interest bearing bond.
After a spending bill is passed and HM Treasury spends Ā£10 billion by instructing the BOE to start crediting bank accounts. They have to guess what the non government sectors ” surplus” is going to be.
How much are households and businesses going to ” save” when they get the Ā£10 billion.
They have no idea which is why they are always wrong. They should be disbanded and told to work at replacing a budget constraint with an inflation constraint.
Find out if the Ā£10 billion is going to cause inflation or not. Are there enough skills and real resources to absorb the Ā£10 billion so prices don’t go up. Instead of concentrating on how much people save.
So it would be good jettison all the macroeconomic theory that construes the government budget constraint as an ex ante financial constraint instead of seeing it as an ex post accounting statement, with no operational relevance.
April 25, 2021
Nice on Derek, particularly your last paragraph
April 25, 2021
The government need to facilitate New trade exports, in particular free paperwork creation advice, free export software and put in place the checks on our products to send goods to Northern Ireland. Ask the Royal Mail to make transport and paperwork smooth. At the moment too many of our freight forwarders are EU Country owned and arenāt taking on new clients so small businesses canāt get their products out!
Identify which products we are not allowed to send into the EU at all and help traders to find new local and other export markets and block those same EU products coming into the UK, why arenāt your government doing this? Only until your government can find a way to licence them to trade on a level playing field with Europe. Europe will only concede to this if their exports of these same products are stopped altogether coming into the UK market.
April 25, 2021
“trade on a level playing field with Europe.”
That’s exactly the position the UK was in until Brexit put an end to it.
April 25, 2021
But weāre finding out more and more Peter, for example, that our government donāt impose the same restrictions the EU impose on us. Itās like expecting us to play a game of football with 11 men whilst they have 36 and Boris just gives them an extra year. It is now essential for this government to make it easy for producers to create this paperwork as get their export licences in order.
People I know wanted their jobs back from factories that left the UK with big Eu grants to re-site in Eastern Europe and Spain. They didnāt like reading we were always being told what to do and having strictures put on us to benefit other nations, weakening the UK to raise others was not even or fair, nor were the benefits shared throughout the UK. We were being taxed by the EU on items like drugs and prostitution that werenāt taxed in the UK, this indicates we didnāt have our own tax setting abilities at all, those not using these āillegalā services then got stung for the made up taxes! Sending our money into the Eu for children not growing up in the more expensive UK we asked not to do that, Juncker said NO, it was just unequal. We werenāt setting any agenda we were just abiding by it. Personally I have no problem with free movement just not free movement of benefits and health treatments without recharging as we were recharged by Spain, Germany, France and all. Our government did have the ability to do that but chose with their EU political controllers at the levers not to do this. Boris made promises to take back control that he is not keeping, this isnāt going to end well.
The only recourse Brexiteers have now is to make their protests made with money from their own pockets. More and more people that I speak to are doing just that and looking for alternatives only when they discover blockages in order to support British companies that arenāt allowed to export e.g. Anchor and Countrylife instead of Lurpak and Flora, Wines, cheese and meat, just the little things, but a rolling stone does gather moss, next it will be cars and vans but we need the reasonably priced alternative choices for sale. We want to make our own pharmaceuticals, medical equipment in the UK, we want to make our own chocolates, white goods, looms, wires and cables as we used to. We want the global, outward looking UK, inventing, creating, developing. We never got handouts and we donāt want handouts we want to keep more of our own to rebuild the devastated areas.
April 27, 2021
Every issue you cite is the consequence of a decision taken in Westminster by the UK government at the time, and therefore not a problem caused by being a member of the EU. If the UK government wasn’t capable or willing to do the permitted recharging when other member states did, that’s entirely on Westminster and the UK government. British companies are allowed to export, it’s just that the UK government chose to go from a situation where shipping to Munich was the same as shipping to Manchester, to where a whole bunch of obstacles are now in place. Again, a choice of the UK government.
Responsibility and blame for the consequences of Brexit, such as the challenges now faced by UK exporters to sell into the EU27, needs to sit fairly and squarely where it lies, with the UK government and the Brexiteers.
May 4, 2021
Peter, do you think the British government at Westminster volunteered up the extra 5% of GDP calculation the Eu imposed for taxes on drugs and prostitution when the EU changed the accounting rules as they did all the time? ‘However, earlier this year (2014) the UKās GDP was given a Ā£10bn boost after officials calculated that sex work generated Ā£5.3bn for the economy in 2013, with another Ā£4.4bn coming from the sale of cannabis, heroin, powder cocaine, crack cocaine, ecstasy and amphetamines’ source Guardian.
‘While UK national laws do not allow for benefits to be paid to UK residentsā children living abroad, a 2004 EC Regulation requires that member states pay āfamily benefitsā with regard to children residing in another member state. Family benefits in the UK include child benefit, child tax credit and guardian allowance.’as of December 2013, 20,288 families were receiving child benefit for 34,052 children living outside the UK in another EU member state. ‘ If it was such a small problem why didn’t Juncker and the EU just ease the requirement? The UK weren’t even being too mean they simply wanted to ‘If the UK proposal passes, it would mean limiting child benefits so that they are paid at rates corresponding to āthe living standards of the member state where the child residesā.
I BLAME THIS GOVERNMENT PETER FOR NOT SORTING OUT THE PAPERWORK REQUIREMENTS AS A 3RD PARTY THEY KNEW THIS FOR FOUR YEARS! I also blame them for not applying the exact same terms on EU importers of the same products.
April 25, 2021
The “OBR Commentary on the public sector finances ā March 2021 April 23”, demonstrates how irrelevant such a forecast is. The OBR is guessing when and how much of its monopoly money the Treasury will create anew and spend. The Treasury already knows that better than anybody; but, doesn’t know how much of it will get drawn down, or how quickly it will circulate in the economy. The worst case would be if all its new money was drawn down and it all got saved by companies and individuals anticipating the next disaster. The economy doesn’t speed-up. The Japanese have had this problem for two decades. The Treasury has Ā£892 bn stuck in its current account (reserves + Ā£93 bn in notes and coins) at the BoE. That is circa Ā£340 bn more than this time last year.
Remember, MV equals PQ equals nominal GDP. Get out there citizens and spend the governments money don’t save it. The economy needs to get to a state where inflation starts popping up due to exhausting capacity of some component, particularly skilled employees.
Have a read of “What Does Money Velocity Tell Us about Low Inflation in the U.S.? Monday, September 1, 2014” (Google “…”)
April 26, 2021
There already is inflation acorn.
Enough to reduce the value of one’s savings by 20% in just 10 years.
My Council Tax bill has risen by about 5% every year recently and prices are rising steadily for things like food and drink, insurances, fuels, electricity, flights, public transport costs and many other items.
I’m unimpressed by the ONS and their headline number for inflation which I think is lower than the experience of people in the “real world”
April 25, 2021
Reduce carbon targets to the G20 average or possibly the EU average performance.
Sack all senior roles in roads/traffic management in Highways England and local authorities.
Replace with people whose agenda is “getting Britain moving again” instead of trying to impede and slow down the economy.
Take advantage of being out the EU and tax Amazon et al in the UK.
April 25, 2021
We need to question why we need to have carbon targets at all ?
April 25, 2021
Yesterday I posted here that all the OBR’s forecasts were wrong (as were those of the Treasury) and should therefore be scrapped, and that the government should base its policies on its political principles and beliefs, and on its good judgement.
Your post today proves that my proposal is right. Incorrect forecasts are worse than useless. It’s time for politicians to do what they were elected to do: lead on the basis of their policies. They need to sack all the economic advisers and show that they believe in themselves and their political principles.
April 25, 2021
OBR = Scapegoats.
Better they get it wrong than the government.
April 25, 2021
Rather than going on all the āall party parliamentary groupsā jollies, lobby meetings etc they could actually take some responsibility and start doing the job they where elected to do
April 25, 2021
Scrape all Qangos….and start with a clean sheet
April 25, 2021
Ridiculous property prices in London are severely limiting labour mobility. People from the north and Wales are priced out from the S.E. The UK economy consists of a Property Ponzi Scheme and it needs remodelling as a productive economy. Instigate policies which reduce house prices; prevent buy-to-let landlords buying up all the property so our young people get a look-in.
Most countries do not allow non-resident foreigners buying homes so why should we?
We should say, there’s no more shoebox flats for you to “invest” in, but we do have some nuclear reactors that we want to build.
April 25, 2021
All EU derivative trading should be moved to Dublin immediately. EU derivatives should be within the EU family
April 26, 2021
That is up to the people buying and selling these derivatives.
April 25, 2021
One possible fallacy here is the underlying assumption that increased growth depends on Government policy. Government can certainly make the kinds of errors that hamper growth, but one thing Mrs T showed is that improving the economy may depend less on the Government adopting better policies, and more on Government adopting fewer policies in fewer areas.
April 25, 2021
We now have the freedoms to do better – that is still theoretical, this Government has tied us to the EU Commission. Our Fishing, Banking, Services and even NI are internal UK policies dictated by what is essentially a foreign power. To answer myself, banking and services are just exports we previous enjoyed with the EU, but unlike the WTO arrangements for this sector and the EU’s arrangements with other independent countries, the UK is either to be excluded or controlled on an international external level by the EU.
Is a Government that ignore the UK’s referendum to leave the EU going to pay any attention to anyone that is in the UK’s Parliament to represent the People. Will they allow our own HoC to be the only method of creating, amending, repealing, the laws, rules and regulations that relate to what happens inside the UK. It would appear not, so in essence we can not call our self a sovereign democracy.
April 25, 2021
It is hard to tell what this Government is interested in.
Clearly before any of the often spouted eco pronouncements and other strange asperations can come into play, the UK must have a strong economy and a resilient self-reliant internal commerce/manufacturing regime.
For instance so far the Government has focused on internal carbon consumption. Yes we can get to these pseudo targets, but it will be at the expense of exporting jobs. We can only do it by importing vast amounts of goods the technology needed is elsewhere in the World. For creditability’s sake they should factor in the increase World Carbon needed to ship all these lovely finished items, their manufacture and delivery to the UK for consumption. Even the limited assembly in the UK of imports doesn’t work. Everyone’s highlight, HS2 – it is imported manufacture from Japan with minimal assembly in the UK
Then the problem is with no way to earn to pay(as we wont be having the jobs in the UK) for the import of these required goods and technologies, the Government is looking at receding to the stone age.
April 25, 2021
So you intend to treat us all to immigration of 0.3% a year. About 210, 000 new people every year. They are coming, no doubt, to fill all the empty houses. How can there be a housing shortage if we allow 210,000 people a year to move here? No sane government would allow a million new people every few years if there wasnāt housing for them. After all, where would they live?
Clearly we have an insane government.