The Business Secretary was the Energy Minister, and is now the boss of the Energy Minister. His disagreements with the Treasury over whether he can offer any subsidy to hard pressed manufacturers need not prevent him helping the energy using industries very directly. He should invite them in with the gas supply industry and the UK gas producers and discuss how going forward the UK can produce more domestic gas to reduce our reliance on erratic and currently very expensive imported energy.
An industrial user of gas that needs plenty at a competitive price to make steel or glass or paper or ceramics wants some reassurance that going forward they can obtain enough gas at sensible prices to be able to keep their customers. If the government allowed the UK gas industry to find, produce and deliver more of the gas that is available in our islands and seas they could offer more long term contract gas to domestic industry on sensible terms.
The Minister could explain to the green lobby that this is a greener answer as well. It makes little sense to bring gas compressed by use of energy around the world in large tankers needing a lot of diesel to power them to our shores, when local gas could pass down a pipe for a fraction of the power needed for the import. If something is too dear you either need more of it or a substitute. There may be other ways of making steel and paper in due course, but for the time being if we want to save our industries they need cheaper gas.
October 12, 2021
Solar and wind power are unreliable.
We really, really need a reliable alternative.
October 12, 2021
Solar isnāt unreliable. It works every single day of the year in the U.K. Every single day.
October 12, 2021
And at night too ?
October 12, 2021
Batteries – to use the power generated during daylight. Amazing eh?
October 12, 2021
According to EcoWatch: on average, solar panels will generate 10-25% of their normal power output on days with heavy cloud coverage.
According to our current experience in a far warmer and sunnier climate than GB, in order to run a 3-person household with fridge/freezer/washing machine/dryer/lighting/microwave/tv and hi-fi system/iron/hairdryers/2 computers in constant business usage/water heaters/house security system/electric garage doors and driveway gate etc, we need the storage space (and finances) for 2 batteries plus control board+sufficient roof space for many panels, and yet on occasions we still run out of solar power. This does not take into account the electric oven nor underfloor heating, which is run off mains electricity as they cause huge drainage on the system.
October 12, 2021
Andy : “Batteries ā to use the power generated during daylight. Amazing eh?”
Unfortunately no commercially feasible āgrid scaleā battery back-up yet exists which can cope with days of cloudy weather or, in the case of wind turbines, no wind.
Lithium-ion batteries can only cope for 4-6 hours and are very expensive and are used for short breaks in supply.
Flow batteries may provide the answer but until they exist solar and wind energy is not only unreliable but the electricity they produce is unable to be costed.
October 12, 2021
is that for 29m homes? Perhaps I should buy shares in battery production – now what were the elements required in batteries, and where do we get them from?
October 12, 2021
Silly.
JF
October 12, 2021
@Andy; Were do you live, to have sunlight 24/7?!
Here in the UK (approaching the Autumn equinox) currently we have about 12 hours of usable sunlight, within the month there will be more starlight than daylight, many industries need a full 24/7 supply, unlike you there do not hibernate when the sun sets – and they need it now, not sometime in the future when GWs of storage have been invented/built, even if that is actually possible.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
Andy, I replied to you about this last time you posted such total nonsense.
Cllearly you don’t have a solar system otherwise you would not make such a ridiculous statement.
As someone who actually has a 4Kw Solar array, I can confirm the following :
1. The output in winter is around 30% of the output in summer ( I know because we are paid for what we generate ). Winter is when we need the most power generated.
2. Obviously the panels can only generate in daylight and nothing much before about 10am in summer and midday in winter. Output declines sharply as the sun gets lower in the sky : from 16:00 in summer and 14:30 in winter. We are on the South coast and our array is exactly south facing and at the ideal inclination. We therefore have the best possible conditions for generation. On a perfect summer’s day, our array produces 3.6kW which, we are told, is about as efficient as a 4kW array gets. The further North one lives or if it isn’t possible to get the inclination and direction perfect, the lower the output.
3. Output is a great deal less on cloudy days that clear days.
Therefore to generate a useful amount of power in winter, a solar system need THREE TIMES the number of panels needed in the summer. You also need at least 95% back up generators standing by for when the sun does not shine which is a lot of the time. These generators have to sit idling, ready to go all the time. That is VERY expensive.
The fact is that nuclear power is the only 100% reliable, renewable generating system. Solar and wind can never be more than an additional source of energy when conditions are suitable for it and require expensive backup generators ready to go all the time. Especially in winter when we need it most.
October 12, 2021
Obviously Solar is perfect for very hot countries with clear skies because they need lots of power on hot days to run aircon. For northern countries like Britain and Germany, the benefit is limited because we need the most power in winter. We only installed a system because Gordon Brown made the feed-in tariff so ludicrously generous. The full cost was recovered in six years and the tariff is guaranteed for 25 years and index linked !
October 12, 2021
I first had solar panels installed in 2007 – and have had them on my last two homes. Iāve have owned solar panels for more than a decade. They work so well that Iāll be installing solar on my current house too – as part of a rebuilding project thatās been delayed by Covid.
I said solar is reliable. Which is true, it is. I said solar works every single day of the year in the UK. Which is also true, because it does. Everything else you all accuse me of is stuff made up by all of you.
The best thing we can all do to āgo greenā is to properly insulate our homes. Then we should eat less meat. Then we should install solar. Then batteries. Then, when your boiler needs replacing, install a heat pump. Then, when your car needs replacing, buy electric instead.
None of this stuff is hard. All of this stuff works. All it requires is for you to make better purchasing choices.
The problem is that you all rant about technology that works. You all rage about stuff that has existed for years, decades even, and which large numbers of people already use without issue. It really is bonkers.
October 13, 2021
It is inconceivable that you have had PVs for more than a decade and not noticed the output varies with conditions and there are days when you get minimal to zero power generated.
Over the space of just three days this month my PVs generated 26.505 kWh on the 6th and 2.225 kWh two days later on the 8th. That is an order of magnitude difference that is impossible to miss if you pay any attention at all.
My inverter has LEDs indicating whether power is generated and clicks when it changes between off and on so it is hard to miss marginal performance.
Clearly you do not have PV panels and are making it all up just like everything else you boast about.
October 13, 2021
Andy, if you do have a solar array, you cannot dispute my argument over its ineffectiveness.
Solar can make only a minimum contribution to power generation in winter when we need it most and it requires close to 100% backup from gas or Nuclear plants sitting idling.
You need to be realistic and admit that it is simply not a viable solution to the huge increase in power we are supposedly going to need.
I don’t believe we will get that far. The cost of all the measures your Green Crap friends want to introduce are simply unaffordable and if the government, any government, persists on the current path there will be demonstrations in the streets.
October 12, 2021
Solar is unreliable in that the amount of energy you get from PV systems cannot be relied on. A minimum level of insolation is required for the panel to work at all (100-200 mW/m2 I believe), more if there are micro-inverters and then there needs to be sufficient to drive the inverter to then generate the A/C power.
Solar is not guaranteed to work every day of the year – the panel won’t generate anything at all if it is covered in snow and output varies with fog, cloud cover etc. So even though it can be light enough to see clearly the panels won’t generate anything.
Put a kilo of coal/oil or some volume of gas through a generator and you can pretty much predict how much energy will be produced, this is not the case with solar.
To make solar energy reliable and dispatchable you need to store the energy in a form that is dispatchable – as a battery charge or as a generated fuel.
October 12, 2021
Whilst, for the first time, you have said something that is both accurate and true, alas the sun does not shine for up to 16 hours a day. Energy demand is greatest on cold winter evenings.
That said, if the government spent the money it is wasting on HS2 on putting solar panels on the roofs of 10 million houses, and invested in storing that energy, it would be a big part of solving the energy crisis.
But this government, voted in by (usually) Labour-supporting, working-class Brexitists, seems to be both inane and incompetent.
October 12, 2021
Are you obsessed by class ? What would you call yourself ?
October 12, 2021
@MWB
To whom is your comment addressed. Using Firefox on an iPhone, it is not possible to see.
If it is directed at me, I could not care less about class. A certain person on here relentlessly tries to characterise those who voted for Brexit as āTory pensionersā. I merely seek to remedy this error by noting that the majority of Brexit voters were Labour-supporting, working-class (i.e. not retired) And that most āTory pensionersā are middle-class Remainers who love their frequent weekend jollies to Barcelona and Budapest etc.
October 12, 2021
Is solar a ‘better alternative’ ?
October 12, 2021
It does indeed – but somedays you only get circs 10% of what you get on peak days due to light levels, cloud cover, day length, poor visibility, the suns angleā¦so virtually nothing in fact.
October 12, 2021
Andy
Tell that to the population of Texas who are entirely dependent on renewables when the turbines froze and the solar panels were covered in snow and they literally froze to death!
A bit more research on your part wouldnāt go amiss?
October 12, 2021
Wikipedia tells us: āState officials including governor Greg Abbott initially blamed the outages on frozen wind turbines and solar panels. However, it was later discovered that inadequately winterized natural gas equipment contributed to the grid failure.ā
Youāre pushing for gas, right? When it literally killed people in Texas.
October 13, 2021
As usual you misrepresent what was said and what happened – the initial stated view (by Bill Magness the CEO of ERCOT which overseas the state grid) was that the failure of all forms of power, primary and backup, was the cause of the blackout, that includes nuclear, gas, coal and renewables sources.
But I’ll wait to see the engineering and tech reports rather than rely on the political posturing you favour.
October 12, 2021
Its obvious you have no knowledge of using solar power other than dribbling some power from the roof of your house!
With the many variables , solar power is vary unreliable. But then just like the journalist we have for a Prime Minister, detail does not matter to you.
October 12, 2021
but some days you get 5% other days the maximum.
October 12, 2021
Gas is cheap and reliable so why would we need āa reliable alternativeā? As is coal for electricity generation as the Chinese clearly understand as they are building so many such power plants every month. Gas is easier to transport in existing pipes, coal rather easer to store in piles. The only practical alternative is better nuclear or nuclear fusion but this is a bit off yet.
Until then gas and coal are the way to go (plus wind and solar if, when and where they need no taxpayer subsidy). So just get this moronic āNet Zeroā government out of the way please.
October 12, 2021
The price of unloved coal is up c230% this year to-date.China has told it’s state-owned power companies to secure fuel supplies for winter “at any cost”.Of all the energy sources that China imports from Russia,coal is showing the sharpest volume increase this year – and (partly for geopolitical reasons) it is looking to massively expand it’s purchases from it’s neighbour in future years-replacing Australian and,possibly longer term,US imports.A new project,Elga,in the Russian Far East will add an estimated 30m tons pa to the 33m tons exported to China in 2019 from 2023 onwards.New terminals currently under construction at Murmansk and on the Taymyr peninsular will also bring Arctic coal to China via the Northern Sea Route.In the meantime China is buying as much surplus Russian hydro-electric power via the transmission lines across the River Amur (their mutual border)as can be supplied and negotiating for more transmission capacity to be installed.
This crisis is going to accelerate the recasting of global supply chains that was already underway.Russia will be the big winner-it is literally re-organizing the world around it!
October 12, 2021
Very useful summary of some of the new trade arrangements. Of course Chinese reluctance to buy Australian coal (previously~80 million tonnes/year) contributes to their current shortages. China has been a massive buyer of LNG this year, and I suspect they will become the world’s biggest importer. Their domestic coal production at 3.9 billion tonnes dominates their energy supply. Bidding up prices and securing imports serves to make life difficult for competitors, while doing relatively little harm at home.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
Well said , I agree 100%.
October 12, 2021
Natural gas is halfway to the hydrogen economy. That gets us to 2035. Let’s go with that and reassess in 15 years.
JF
October 12, 2021
Nuclear
October 12, 2021
@David Peddy; But can we wait 10 years?
Coal, as LL says it can be burnt in power stations, those furnaces currently burning gas can surely be converted to use pulverised coal, as a nod to the green religion both Sulphur scrubbing and CCS can be used. For domestic needs we can again make coal gas out of coal, what is more isn’t a by-product the coke needed by the steel industry?
October 12, 2021
The RR Mini mukes do not take that long to install. Meantime we should be fracking drilling new fields in the north Sea
Reply I was told they would not hsve one ready this decade if ordered.
October 12, 2021
Sir John, that’s why we need CCGTs before then
JF
October 12, 2021
Which the EU may soon declare to be “green”:
https://euobserver.com/tickers/153199
“France wants EU to say nuclear power is green”
“Ten EU states have signed a statement saying nuclear power should be classified as green-friendly in the EU’s upcoming industrial “taxonomy”, designed to steer private capital. “There is no science-based evidence that nuclear power is less climate-friendly than any of the energy sources,” Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia said, adding nuclear power was “a crucial and reliable asset for a low-carbon future”.”
October 12, 2021
Dreaming. With Carrie Antoinette in the driving seat there will be no fracking or more gas Wells drilled.
It’s a change at the top that is required.
How about opening that mine in Cumbria to reduce reliance on imports.
Don’t expect any sensible policies any time soon. 0
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
I suppose Carrie will not allow Boris to have sensible polices even if he wanted them?
October 12, 2021
she swings the old pendulum pocket watch in front of his eyes and quietly repeats the mantra ‘green is good, green is good, coal and oil bad, coal and oil bad’.
October 12, 2021
Indeed.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
The brexitories are “fed up of experts”.
OK, it’s starting to show, rather isn’t it?
The people whom you need to advise on what the contractual demands on energy suppliers should be are scientists and technologists. They are experts.
You also need them to inspect physical systems to confirm that the requirements – e.g. for gas storage – are met. If you don’t like employing such people then this won’t happen.
I’d have thought that all this was pretty obvious, but some people like to ignore what is plain as day if it doesn’t flatter their politics, it seems.
Well, isn’t it all going wonderfully, after years of this?
October 12, 2021
“The people whom you need to advise on what the contractual demands on energy suppliers should be are scientists and technologists”
You’ve never worked with scientists and technologists have you ? I have. They are the last people you want anywhere near contract terms and negotiations. Odd you would even comment on something you know so little about – isn’t that exactly the point you are making ?
October 12, 2021
I am no fan of the Socialist (VAT on school fees) Michael Gove but what he actually said was:- “I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.”
In this he was exactly right – the counterproductive wars, the ERM, climate alarmism & the climate change act, climate (soothsayer) modelling, the idiotic net zero agenda… as a few excellent examples.
Just heard Vince Cable suggesting energy intensive industries should be given tax payers money to convert from Natural Gas to Hydrogen! Such appalling ignorance where are the Hydrogen mines mate? He went on to say we should follow Japan & China who has better planning. Yes, one new coal fired power station each week – sounds sensible to me but perhaps that is not what he meant – it is hard to tell with Vince and the “Neither Liberal nor Democratic Party”.
October 12, 2021
@NLH; How is Brexit to blame for 1/. Russian gas prices 2/. EU green policies, hat the UK is still very much following?
I might dislike ex POTUS Trump’s many other policies but his energy policy was spot on.
October 12, 2021
I’m much more fed up of Michael Gove, and have been for a very long time.
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/05/23/the-last-days-of-mrs-may/#comment-1022743
“I havenāt trusted Michael Gove since I read this article in June 2004 … “
October 12, 2021
NLH
Yes claim to have extensive knowledge on many subjects, please enlighten us as to your actual experience and any qualifications that you possess?
October 12, 2021
we have our share of experts on here.
October 12, 2021
Hello Andy.
JF
October 12, 2021
@Oldwulf +1 I take it you mean a Government that supports the UK before ego
October 12, 2021
@Oldwulf – 90% of the Worlds Solar Panels are manufactured by the Worlds most polluting companies in the Worlds most polluting countries, then imported into the UK having travelled by the most polluting forms of transport.
Then add in these above same countries have no intention of cutting back on their own pollution levels, as in they create 70% of World Pollution and are not going along with Boris/COP26/UN dictates and attempts at World Government.
Under Boris the UK is increasing World Pollution by ensuring we import from polluters before home grown, it is also the UK poor that is funding this ridiculous unfounded hypocritical enterprise. That begs the question whom does this Government really work for.
October 12, 2021
Nuclear & Coal
October 12, 2021
The reliable alternative is tidal power.
High tide BTW occurs at different times round our coast.
October 12, 2021
Do we have to debunk the myth again? Viable tidal sites have tides that are almost in phase, making the output extremely peaky. There is no nice smoothing of the output. This article contains many references to studies that demonstrate this.
http://euanmearns.com/green-mythology-tidal-base-load-power-in-the-uk/
October 12, 2021
Yes, solar and wind are unreliable, but then what you need is a high capacity of battery storage to tide you over the bad days. The UK currently has 1.3GW of battery installed in the grid, with plans for 15 GW.
For comparison, the total instantaneous capacity of the grid is 75 GW with annual output of 323,157 GWh.
Obviously we need more battery storage, but things are moving in the right direction and the installation of more battery storage will make the unreliability of wind and solar less important in time.
I apologise for not making any political points or any clever one-liners. I also apologise for not accusing the Government of conspiring to kill us all.
October 12, 2021
Like much of this government’s policy ,the approach to energy ,at a time of crisis , is confused, contradictory and incoherent
Forget COP26 . Unless the Chinese cooperate ( unlikely ) and the Americans drastically reduce their CO2 emissions ( highly unlikely) nothing will change
Meanwhile we are stiing on abundant supplies of natural gas in the North West and the North Sea which may not bring the price down but which would secure supplies for the U.K
Ludicrous decision by Kwarteng NOT to gtrant a licence to Shell for the Jubilee field
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
Agreed. Unless he does we can expect more industry carnage on an industrial scale – as we have already witnessed as industry after industry has closed down and moved abroad. By
October 12, 2021
Not just in the UK.European energy intensive industry,particularly that which is export-oriented towards Asia will move to Russia-to benefit from cheap,plentiful energy,cheap plentiful raw materials of all sorts,proximity to markets and an expanding infrastructure network direct to those markets.
There are a number of very large multi-billion $ petrochemical projects already completed or under construction in Asiatic Russia,the first large paper mill since Soviet times is also to be built.I noticed a few months back that an Austrian cement co had opened a plant at Ufa,in W Siberia on the Trans-Siberian Railway;doing a little extra research I found that Heidelberger Cement has also established a network of plants in Russia (also including one at Ufa) with an Italian co also setting up in 2019.
October 12, 2021
That’s the idea. Shut down all energy intensive industry and import the products. It reduces CO2. The fact it will make the country even more reliable on expensive imports net zero is king.
No steel, aluminium, glass, cement or similar industries which will affect secondary industries.
Unbelievable.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
DP
Co2 is a nutrient gas and we need more of it!
No one seems to explain why Co2 is bad, water vapour in the form of clouds has a much greater effect on temperatures, a single volcanic eruption produces more Co2 than mankind has produced since it dawn of time, the sea levels arenāt rising, Obama has built a $multimillion mansion on the shoreline at Marthaās Vineyard.
Tony Heller (realclimatescience.com) has records dating back a century or more showing that MMCC is a total scam, yet the BBC are insisting that weāre going to burn up, despite their weather App painting a completely different picture, great inconsistency but no one in government questions it, rushing Lemming like to the cliff edge and destroying our country in the process, 6uild 6ack 6etter , were going to need a healthy supply of candles and blankets because this is where Net Zero is taking rapidly taking us
When is Greta visiting China to get them to reduce their Co2 emissions?
How dare she!
October 12, 2021
What is Chinese for ‘Greta is blah blah blah’?
October 12, 2021
@David Peddy +1 – unfortunately to much common sense to be listened to
October 12, 2021
Open up the Shell north sea Jubilee field and the North of England shale gas and we’d have enough gas energy for a 100 years with price stability and without any imports
WIN WIN WIN
October 12, 2021
I’ve reported you for spouting common sense.
October 12, 2021
Youāve just ruined any chance of me becoming a Tory MP
October 12, 2021
+1x 100%
October 12, 2021
Donāt knock the advances made by the USA; theyāre making childrenās toys non-binary
October 12, 2021
are they the more expensive option?
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
There is no better alternative. Get fracking.
But government policy with the net zero lunacy is to export all these energy intensive industries and jobs overseas anyway. So why are they pretending to be concerned now? Why rescue then to export them later?
The deluded Kwasi thinks we are to become āthe Saudi Arabia of windā and then manufacture green hydrogen to replace gas from this electricity. Clearly he know nothing of physics, energy efficiency or energy economics. Hydrogen produced in this way would cost a fortune and waste vast amounts of energy too – relative to methane. Far harder to store and transport too and vast capital costs. Put Lords Lilley and Ridley in charge not this deluded historian. Though I suspect even Kwasi knows it is all B.S. He is fairly bright after all and certainly is relative to most MPs.
October 12, 2021
Yep – Hydrogen probably isn’t the right way to go. As for fracking, I’d happily see us frack away but an alternative approach might be to view our underground supplies as already being in a strategic storage tank. We could put in place – under state ownership, if necessary – the extraction and transmission infrastructure so we could extract the stuff when needed. Now is just such a time when the government should be turning on the tap and the public would be cheering them on.
October 12, 2021
There is no advantage to government control of the taps. Would you trust them when they are refusing to allow hydrocarbon development? Government has been the problem, not the solution.
There are limitations on the degree of production flexibility from individual fields which depends on the nature of the reservoir. Providing more production flexibility may come at the cost of recoverable reserves. These are not simple matters, and best settled with the aid of reservoir and production engineers and commercial people who between them can cost providing surge capacity.
October 12, 2021
Natural gas is halfway to the hydrogen economy. That gets us to 2035. Let’s go with that and reassess in 15 years.
JF
October 12, 2021
Good Morning,
I fear for our nation and industry when we have such a government so poorly balanced and under-experienced. The Covid report clearly identifies this, and a lack of understanding of the energy needs and ebusiness structure of our country portends disaster to come. One might add, from interviews the apparant disinterestedness in these practical science based issues from ministers, the PM on down, is appaling.
I looked up, as best I could, to see who studied what, here it is:
https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2019/07/26/where-and-what-did-the-new-cabinet-study/
October 12, 2021
Sharma read Physics as Salford (so I assume he struggled a bit with his A levels at the private Reading Blue Coat School) and Zahawi read Chem. Eng. at UCL. Though Zahawi as Vaccine Minister (idiotically/negligently) did not even spot the need to vaccinate men slightly younger than women in priority order and wants to push vaccinations at children and even those who have had Covid. So perhaps does not understand risk/benefit calculations.
This rather indicates Zahawi is not actually numerate despite this degree.
October 12, 2021
You link suggest that only 3% of the Cabinet have Stem degrees. 97% none, social sciences, law or humanities.
That 3% however seems to be just Alok Sharma with Applied Physics from Salford. Now president of COP26 previously Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy – which rather suggest he either does not understand physics or energy much or he is going along with this agenda for career reasons.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
There seems to be an idea going round in these comments that ministers need to be qualified to decide, or at least understand, government policy on climate and energy. Of course they don’t. They’re just salespeople. In other walks of life, the sales force needs to know something of how the products work, to deal with questions. Not ministers. Not with the civil serpents writing their public anouncements and statements to committees. It’s true that with Brexit the ministers/salespeople did some of the time get tough questions from the media. But in already-decided areas like climate policy and Covid policy, that isn’t going to happen, so ministers can just bumble on regardless. They know at the next reshuffle they could be switched to a totally different area anyway.
October 12, 2021
Peter I feel this goes to show that to become a cabinet minister you must have a degree of some kind unfortunately thereās no degree in common sense which is at the forefront of life.That is why governments in the past have failed,a lack of common sense.We should be having ministers who have worked within the relative fields of their post and then they can also call on the so called experts within that field.This should apply to all political parties who stand a chance of winning an election.
I have no degree but that did not hold me back as I employed hundreds of people within eight companies and each one of them became successful in their own right.It was all about teamwork but more importantly listen to the people within their own jobs.
October 12, 2021
The higher price will ensure more is produced and supplied so long as this idiotic, market manipulating, climate alarmist government is kept well out of the way. Why are they still banning fracking exactly?
October 12, 2021
Do the Gov. think overseas methane is somehow better/greener than UK methane?
October 12, 2021
I think because the fracked gas and oil is counted as āfossil fuelā aka the greatest gift ever bestowed on the earth.
Mind you, lefties are the rudest most ungracious present receivers you could ever imagine!
āWhy on EARTH did you buy me this??ā
Nasty, ungrateful maggots.
October 12, 2021
Spot On
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
Dear Lifelogic–Because a very few people might, repeat might, be exposed to a very small risk of a very small tremor that might, repeat might, rattle a very few teacups. Pusillanimous and imbecilic.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
every time Johnson appears on our tv our tea cups rattle quite a bit.
October 12, 2021
And +1
JF
October 12, 2021
Dear Lifelogic, fracking has been a great success in the vast wastelands that still exist in North America. The drawbacks loom larger in densely populated Lancashire and Cheshire.
October 12, 2021
Dear outsider–“Loom larger” maybe but how much larger? Loom is a highly tendentious word. There’s a risk certainly but surely any half way reasonable judgement of an absolute worst case (which we have never got near seeing) would be something like a house or two collapsing (Yes with risk to life and limb in a very few cases but with a big question mark) but this negative stuff is as absolutely nothing compared with the risks and costs to the nation as a whole from running scared over so little.
October 12, 2021
LS comment – moronic.
UK is too densly populated for fracking.
Perhaps try ending immigration, and sending back those who have already arrived for a free life.
October 12, 2021
I can point you to wells beside shopping complexes, in airports, etc. that go unnoticed from day to day. In both the US and the UK.
October 12, 2021
There are fracked wells within the city limits of Los Angeles. There are fracked laterals running under Sandbanks, the most expensive real estate in England.
Your point?
JF
October 15, 2021
Vast wastelands?
Ah, Texas, you mean…
October 12, 2021
ā if we want to save our industries they need cheaper gasā indeed but this deluded āNet Zeroā Boris/Carrie/Sunak/Kwartang government (with their degrees in Classics, Theatre Studies, PPE & History) clearly want to destroy these industries or push them overseas while freezing millions in their homes – some even to their early deaths.
October 12, 2021
Their degrees are irrelevant. Their Mandarins/Civil servants should have the professional skills and knowledge. Ha.
October 12, 2021
Net zero was in the Tory manifesto in 2019. And most of you voted for it.
October 12, 2021
Not for it to be brought forward to 2035.
October 12, 2021
The alternative was Corbyn/SNP with an even worse agenda with even more green crap!
October 12, 2021
I bet you voted for net zero. It was not a matter of choice. You cold have any colour you liked, as long as it’s green.
October 12, 2021
+many
Sadly, I think that the freezing and starving is only planned for the likes of me and thee.
The escape routes for the powers-that-should-never-have-been are no doubt well planned.
Our PM cares so much he isnāt even here!
October 12, 2021
Like others I guess, Iām well prepared. Snares. Bow and arrows will supply the meat from squirrels and rabbits. Traps will catch fish and dozens of years supply of timber.
I ām ok Jack
October 12, 2021
Trust me. They will rapidly bring in anti hunting laws.
And what if we arenāt let out?
Hydroponic veg with fish in the water might be a solution?
During WW2 people kept/bred rabbits for meat.
October 12, 2021
mostly sunny in Malaga.
October 12, 2021
Yes.
Presumably thatās why he has escaped there?
Maybe he will stay?
October 12, 2021
@Lifelogic +1 The ‘classic’ recipe for creating a failed State that can then be rebuilt as the Controlling Socialist Country this cabal so desires
October 12, 2021
Dear Lifelogic, Sadly, all the UK-wide parties in Parliament share an arrogant scorn and deep distrust of what remains of British big business. These attitudes are also generally held in and reinforced across Whitehall. Only folksy small business is condescendingly approved. Electors have no option to vote for something like the German model, which understands how our bread is buttered.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
We are on a path to self destruct! Everywhere you look or listen, it seems businesses, think tanks etc are screaming at the government to think more carefullyā¦ but they ignore everyone! I know thereās a global coup going on, but really, do the government want us to crash and burn? It certainly seems that wayā¦
October 12, 2021
+1 – I try and I try but I cannot see the logic of the paths that our politicians have chosen. They have put the UK on the path to destruction, in more ways than one.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
All very good, Sir John, but if there was any real prospect of the government doing as you say here, you wouldn’t need to be telling them.
On this blog we are not usually informed of Ministers’ responses to your suggestions, and when we sometimes are, the response is bland and non-committal, meaning they’re going to carry on with what they were going to do anyway. This is no criticism of your powers of argument. The plan has been pre-set, and it will take more than logic and appeals to the national interest to change this government’s course.
October 12, 2021
Your assessment is correct ā why else would this government ignore, SirJj, its own backbenches and its own voters
In 2019 94% of the population voted for non-green parties
Why does the BBC project āgreenā (6%) as the norm with its broadcast on programmes, news, and weatherā¦and why is this government fully supportive of the BBC views
October 12, 2021
Today the BBC are reporting that the Environmental Agency proclaim ”Adapt or Die” …is this the governments current policy
October 12, 2021
Good morning.
The problem here is, that if government give to one begging pot, no matter how worthy it may seem, then who can then deny another with the same grievance ? The government is making the taxpayer pay twice so that bad business can keep on being badly run. This is how we got in such a mess in the 70’s, companies just expected the government to put its hands in our pockets.
He could, but I wouldn’t bother. These people are fanatics. And like all fanatics, they are impervious to reason. It is their way, or no way ! ie They will fight you like those protestors blocking the public highways.
The government, which still wants to be the, “greenest ever”, has backed itself into a corner. It wants to be seen as green but, as green cannot deliver on the needs of a modern civilised society which, as we have seen with loo-rolls and more recently with petrol, can unravel very quickly. There are no quick solutions as decisions should have been made years ago. But the one thing that is holding us back, and the one thing that can make a real difference that is well within the power of a government with an 80 seat majority, is, and I have said it before but our kind host will not repeat it, is to get rid of the ruinous Climate Change Act.
October 12, 2021
The country has a choice. Get behind all these industries and manufacturers and give them the reliable cheap energy to be competitive and grow their businesses and work force. Or watch them wither and die to close and their market share will be taken off shore where cheaper energy exists. We lose job, tax revenues and business rates and like in the old bad days swathes of the country will stand as testament yet again that the dreadful lack of leadership and understanding of how key processes to the survival of this country actually works.
October 12, 2021
What else should you expect from the Business Eradication and Industrial Suppression department? It is their mission.
October 12, 2021
precisely Turbo. And how is that going to help levelling up?
October 12, 2021
Their policy is economic madness, creating/allowing a shortage of supply and trying to either force prices down with a cap conveniently overlooking someone has to make up the shortfall between it and market prices and that could be subsidy, which is only a tax on all of us.
And in other news we see the first post pandemic report setting out in bleak detail the total failure of Ministers in a number of areas, planning, not challenging advice etc.
It states that effectively these people have caused thousands of preventable deaths.
When will this shabby government accept responsibility and fire those responsible?
October 12, 2021
Phew – that will cause a spike in the unemployment numbers…
October 12, 2021
Energy is now a big enough problem area to warrant having its own Secretary of State. And I wonder if news that Johnson was sorting out the Treasury-BEIS spat from Zac’s poolside yesterday is further evidence that Cabinet committees are not working as they should. How was decision-making done yesterday? A quick scroll through the comments at Guido Fawkes and then make a call?
P.S. A month or two ago my dual-fuel DD was Ā£57/month. My supplier is now offering me a two-year fix at …….. Ā£120/month.
October 12, 2021
Sea-Warrior
As posted last week, I face the same problem when my current deal runs out at the end of the year.
Not advice, but I actually wonder if its worth going for a fix at all, as you may lock yourself into huge prices, which could be a temporary (live in hope) problem.
Aware prices will continue to rise in the longer term, but we may just may actually be in the middle of a temporary spike!
Like everything else, you pays your money, and pay the price.
October 12, 2021
I think that gas prices are spiking rather than re-setting at a substantially higher level, Alan. I’ve stayed on the variable rate. And turned down the thermostat to 14C. And put a sweater on.
October 12, 2021
and do a lot of indoor calisthenics?
October 12, 2021
An energy bill with a monthly rise of Ā£50-100 is nothing for an MP on Ā£80k+ salary but for the average worker on between Ā£20k to Ā£29k its disastrous….our leaders have lost touch with the people
October 12, 2021
Sir John, all that you say here is, of course, basic good sense BUT: you are far closer to what goes on in Government/Whitehall than we are, do you have any explanation for the kind of thinking that can rationalise all the supposed ‘green’ aims with importing fuels from halfway across the world in diesel-powered vessels?
I, for one, am amazed that no-one has yet castigated that wretched volcano in La Palma for spewing out noxious emissions (you know, the kind that the Earth’s climate/environment/mankind have been absorbing for millennia).
October 12, 2021
Indeed a few more volcanic eruptions and net zero will not be enough, I wonder how many eruptions were in the original modelling, any at all ?
October 12, 2021
The original modelling has been rubbished by real scientists. It should have been targetted at determining the real influencers of climate, not “proving” some madcap theory.
October 12, 2021
On average, the typical annual volcanic activity produces 1/60 th of the CO2 produced by human activity (āWhich emits more carbon dioxide: volcanoes or human activities?ā, M. Scott & R. Lindsey, 22/09/2021, climate.gov).
As for the cooling effect, of the recent volcanic eruptions, only Pinatubo (erupted 15 June 1991) had a sizeable global cooling effect (-0.6C) via an increase of the total aerosol optical depth, which slowly decreased over 15-18 months.
āGlobal effects of Mount Pinatuboā, earthobservatory.nasa.gov.
āEffects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineeringā, K.E. Trenberth & A. Dai, 2007, Geophys. Res. Lett. L15702, doi:10.1029/2007GL030524.
āClimate change will transform cooling effects of volcanic eruptionsā, S. Collins, 12/08/2021, cam.ac.uk.
October 12, 2021
According to the UN IPCC erupting volcanoes are okay and not recorded in emission figures as its not man-made
Statistics, Statistics & the IPCC
October 12, 2021
Plus the fact that the effects of a volcanic eruption are transient, and that only a volcano (like Pinatubo) erupting within the tropical area where SO2, other gases, dust and ash particles can be transported into the stratosphere by deep convection have a sizeable impact on climate. (see papers quoted above).
Ignorance, ignorance & lack of curiosity.
October 12, 2021
But if glen is correct and the IPCC do not record these things in emission figures then who is it who really has a lack of curiosity?
October 12, 2021
Out of curiosity sciencealert.com tells us that just 0.041% of Earth’s atmosphere is co2 and man-made activities are responsible for just 32 percent of that amount. However my research continues as there doesnāt seem to be any definitive answers out thereā¦they all have an agenda and bias
October 12, 2021
Any meteorological centre will have accounted for the past volcanic emissions via the various temperature measurements by radiosondes, satellites, buoys, ā¦ included in its analyses and forecasts. So the impact of volcanoes is included in any past timeseries of meteorological data, therefore in climatological data.
Given that it has been seen that only eruptions happening within the tropics are likely to affect the climate and this only for a limited number of months (up to two years, according to all data accumulated since meteorological data are consistently archived, certainly since the end of WW2) any climate simulation run over a century is unlikely to be much affected by neglecting the effect of volcanoes.
Furthermore, it is always possible (and not that complicated) to include some random amounts of SO2, CO2, dust, and ash over the location of known volcanoes to simulate the potential impact of an erupting volcano, and this occurring randomly, and compare the resulting climate in that simulation with the climate simulated without such representation of volcanic eruptions.
This type of work has been done in the 2010s (B. Kravitz & A. Robock, 2010, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D011005 for high-latitude volcanoes). āVolcanoes and Climateā, J-C Dai, 2010, Climate Change, doi:10.1002/wcc.76 . These studies essentially corroborate the approach taken by the IPCC. So it is not a lack of curiosity, contrary to what GC appears to infer.
A somewhat related question is whether āVolcanic eruptions can mask the true effects of climate changeā Wired-Science, 10/08/2016.
Also relevant are the efforts made by NASA (āAnticipating Climate Impacts of Major Volcanic Eruptionsā, S.A. Carn et al., EOS, 31/08/2021, eos.org)
October 14, 2021
You have changed the argument to one of temperature measurement when the original question was concerned with emissions and do the IPPC record and include them.
But a good Google search there Hef
October 18, 2021
Thank you P2. If you had understood the original point made above, it is that whatever particles are thrown into the stratosphere would create a veil preventing some solar radiation reaching the surface and therefore inducing some cooling of the lower layers of the atmosphere, this as long as those particles were to remain up there.
Such cooling would be countering a potential warming by greenhouse gases. Therefore a drop in resulting temperature. Thatās the point originally made by the contributors above.
So no change in argument from me, stratospheric particles inducing a cooling lower down and drop in temperature being the same cause and effect chain of processes.
But obviously a bit too subtle for you, I realise from your (once again) dumb comment.
October 12, 2021
I read the the MPs report on the response to covid condemns the government response as a disaster. The same can and must be said about its mismanagement of the energy market. Except in this instance the MPs themselves are just as culpable, all except four of whom voted for the Climate Change Act. This Act, along with associated quangos, misdirected incentives, taxes and regulations, is responsible for this energy supply catastrophe.
October 12, 2021
committees.parliament.uk āCoronavirus: Lessons learned to dateā, HC92, 12 October 2021, 147 pp.
October 12, 2021
Coronavirus – Lessons NOT learned to date, I fear:
1. Pharmaceutical companies shouldn’t mark their own homework
2. The World Health Organisation can’t be trusted
3. The media will spread panic far in excess of what’s justified (maybe now that’s starting to be learned, after the fuel crisis, but we’ll see this winter)
4. Neil Ferguson can’t get it right
5. The private sector can’t reliably mass-test public health
6. Censorship increases distrust
7. Governing by decree instead of parliamentary approval undermines a government’s legitimacy
8. Sweden shows us what we should have done. Outcomes – lower mortality per capita than the UK, less economic and social damage
October 12, 2021
+99
October 12, 2021
Spot On – however it will take a government committee 12mths to come to the same conclusion
October 13, 2021
@Glen +99 — You assume they are efficient – more like 12 years I fear
October 12, 2021
To be fair, Oldtimer, the report from the inquiry, chaired by an arch remainer, and another remainer who is a bitter personal rival to the PM, is said by the BBC to find the Government did not shut down the country soon enough, i.e. did not commence the unprecedented damage to the country soon enough. It doesn’t sound as if it finds the other way, nor was it ever going to. These people want the PM and this administration to fail and to fall.
October 12, 2021
By “finds the other way”, I mean that the Government should not have shut down the country.
October 12, 2021
I hope your suggestions are taken note of JR, and that actions will follow, but I fear you are knocking on a closed door.
Those in charge do not seem to have a clue about the basics of supply and demand, or indeed have any commercial or common-sense at all.
All they ever seem to think of is taxation, and subsidy.
October 12, 2021
We never learn. Situation normal. We have always done it this way. The green policies are unnegotiable and must be carried out whatever the cost.
We are plagued with governments that can’t think on their feet, think outside the box because in variably it is not in their DNA to be able to do it.
The old favourites rear their ugly heads time and again. Ignorance, incompetence and arrogance. We need people skilled and trained in the core elements, experienced and capable and it all starts with the leadership. Some make it happen. Some want it to happen. Some wonder what the #### happened. You can toss it around any way you choose but the problem is always there.
Not against saving the world. Just fervently believe we should only do it on a rock solid foundation that ensures the future of this country. History shows the more successful countries are, the methods of new ways of working and technologies impact on a raft of areas the greens are try to address anyway.
Give us a real leader and the right tools the job in hand will be done in jig time.
October 12, 2021
Sir John is always good on energy although his attachment to Fossil Fuels is sometimes, imho, immoderate .I do not accept the Green, food /fuel / miles argument. It has the superficial appeal of the the planned economy, but Trade is always Greener than market distortion, provided external costs are accounted .. that said overall he is dead right on this.
For anyone who remembers OPEC and the 70s the potential harm of a prolonged energy shortage does not need to be emphasised. The answer in the end was alterative sources and this time we cannot let high energy costs undermine Western economies ( especially ours ) now. There are always competing risks and the risk posed by high cost energy is urgent .
What better way to stop the old chap causing trouble with his Brexit nonsense than to give him a real job to do. Lets put Sir John in charge of UK energy procurement, he knows his onions, he grasps what is required and can act without fear of this awful Borsian court we are lumbered with .
Competence Competetence competence wherever it can be found.
October 12, 2021
Unlike the 1970s when you had the Soviet Union at loggerheads with much of the Muslim world,you now have OPEC+ which seems to be working rather well….for some.
October 12, 2021
JR: “The Business Secretary was the Energy Minister, and is now the boss of the Energy Minister. ”
??
Anyway, back on Redwoods blog here I was interested in the news that the Scots were experiencing excess mortality according to their official statistics.
FedupSoutherner put forward that it might be the Scottish diet.
How do we explain the England and Wales figures that show a similar trend ?
Even accounting for a fewer people dying in hospital, ( probably as a result of Savid Javid’s ten million waiting list ) there still appears to be ~ 450 more people dying per week than the expected average.
“The excess deaths are in the following catagories [..] in the following categories: Ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, heart failureā¦, circulatory disordersā¦, chronic respiratory diseaseā
Isn’t that a coincidence? The anti COVID-19 vaccine ( it’s not a vaccine ) has been associated with strokes, myocarditis, and other circulatory conditions. That’s odd.
John Redwood MP, like his peers, is no doubt not interested in identifying the cause of the elevated death rate among his constituents. Probably a good excuse to take a year off and ‘work’ from home.
October 12, 2021
Energy security = oil,gas, nuclear in UK to act as base load when solar and wind renewables ain’t enough. With storage.
Simples.. get on with it.
Sod the reliance on jonny foreigner..
October 12, 2021
And yet this government TODAY has still enforced the suspension of shale gas fracking in Cumbria and cancelled the drilling for natural gas in the north sea
It can only be the āgreenā revolution & cop26 and sticking it to the people
October 12, 2021
Down with reactionaries,saboteurs and other enemies of the revolution!
October 12, 2021
APL. I think at the time we were only talking about excess Scottish deaths. As Scotland has a very high rate of people dying from obesity and heart problems I just suggested it may be to do with their diets as after living there for 15 years I observed that fact. I am not an expert and it was just an unqualified opinion.
October 14, 2021
Fedupsoutherner: “I think at the time we were only talking about excess Scottish deaths.”
Yes you are correct, we were.
But now we have a similar trend in England and Wales, and so far, despite some of the most advanced statisticians in the World in the UK observing the anomoly, we have no clue what might be causing the problem.
Meanwhile, there is a very good chance we know what the cause might be.
October 12, 2021
APL – the cause of any excess deaths will be very simple. We did NOT save the NHS.
It was largely shut down for 18 months.
October 12, 2021
In areas of finance we can only ever follow the governmentās diktats.
In areas of supply we also have little power.
All planned by successive historic governments who stole our gold and our land along with our freedom.
And now that everything appears to be going wrongā¦WE are being punished!
We submitted to the state which failed and now we pay!!
And there is talk of Johnsonās Social Theft Tax DOUBLING!
October 12, 2021
But who is going to extract the gas even if the government u turns? Cuadrilla would probably say āwe might just consider extraction in England again but only if you commit legally to realistic regulation of minor earth movement during fracking, firm action against protesters and a genuinely collaborative approach on the part of National Grid in terms of facilitation of connectivity to the Gridā. Would Johnson and co really undergo such a Damascene conversion? I canāt see it.
Reply Shell have just had an application to develop a new field blocked
October 12, 2021
Right to reply
Whats the reason – whats the logic to this government cancelling the drilling for gas in the north sea
October 12, 2021
Kwasi and Greg are a couple of bright cookies but neither of them has any experience whatsoever in heavy industry. All they know is what they have read or been told by their department heads.
We are in for a long period of lurching from crisis to crisis as those who were elected to parliament in their early thirties work their way the ladder. They bring little or no experience as to how to run anything and have no contacts in their area of responsibility other than a hand-shake and a short chat.
We are heading towards an almighty mess unless we start to second some ”heavy hitters” from industry with both years of experience and foresight. Remember Ragan and California?????? We need to do the same.
October 12, 2021
And of course their department heads have no experience of it either. Still, you also need to be wary of these industrial bosses asking for money, their motives might not be entirely pure.
October 12, 2021
The Johnson’s regime of extreme idiocy is going to make Callaghan and the Winter of Discontent seem like a walk in the park.
October 12, 2021
Under Callaghan external forces where in play however under Boris the current energy price crisis is internal and driven by his green revolution
October 14, 2021
No, it isn’t actually, Glen.
It is the result of years of Tory”light touch” regulation of the privatised energy supply business, and its resultant closure of gas storage facility to save money.
This country now has only about one thirtieth of Italy’s reserves, for instance.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
The UK delivered price is higher than our competing countries. Levies and taxes to punish the poor. So industry moves out, the economy suffers. Then to compound it all the UK Government pressurises the import of goods from the most polluting countries in the World – creating greater World pollution.
You couldn’t make it up, but that’s the brave new World of Boris, more World pollution and Sacrifice of UK Industry with it the UK Economy, – all on the alter of ego!
October 12, 2021
He certainly did alter his ego after election.
October 12, 2021
Yes – Build Back Better ‘not cheaper’
October 12, 2021
To move forward the last thing needed is ‘subsidies’. However you apply them they have unintended consequences, they punish one sector while reward another.
It is ever so simple to solve, the emphasis should be on the UK’s self reliance and resilience. We have the resources just sitting around and squandered on the back of ego.
The cuddly ‘climate change’ levy is anything but, its an export of jobs levy. That then supplies foreign manufacturers with subsidies to exploit the UK market in ways that would never be permitted in their home countries. The net result is the ‘climate change levy’ undermines the UK economy and creates more ‘World’ pollution – every thing that is the opposite of Government speak.
October 12, 2021
We had energy cost stability and surety of supply 10yrs agoā¦.whatās changed to effect the marketsā¦.oh this Tory Government and its many many interventions
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
The UK’s energy situation is deliberately and maliciously manufactured by Government. They may suggest its a World problem, but the UK unlike others is sitting on resources, no-how etc, meaning it should have never have arisen. Its Government that has caused the situation and its Government that can undo the damage virtually instantly.
The personnel ‘ego’ bit in Government is the only barrier. Instant illustration if you replace UK manufactured goods, with goods manufactured in the Worlds most polluting countries – you instantly create more World Pollution. If you import the sources of energy from more polluting countries you create more World Pollution.
This Government is creating and aggravating the very big problem of World Pollution that they pretend they would like to solve. World Pollution is just that World Pollution.
That’s why most sane people get to question their motives, ulterior motive even.
October 12, 2021
Sir John. You seem to be totally at odds with your own party, as are a good many Conservatives. Nobody in government appears to be listening to you. I wonder if you find that as frustrating as the voters do. The way this government has gone bears no resemblance to the manifesto on which they gained power. Very disappointing. It makes no sense at all not to grant a licence for a new gas field in the North Sea. It is as if the remainers surrounding the Government has a priority of keeping us in the pocket of the EU.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
It appears to me our host has remained traditionally conservative. Unfortunately most of the rest (including my own constituent MP) have moved to the left and become cultural Marxists following a globalist agenda, because of the benefits it gives them and to hell with the populace.
I would like to think I am still around to witness the required pay-back -time and regardless of this entails, they will get no sympathy or support from me, given the damage they have caused to untold millions.
October 12, 2021
I fear China will move in and proclaim it as their territory.
October 12, 2021
+1
October 12, 2021
Another thing HMG could do is remove VAT from energy. This would at a stroke help business and householders. They could also remove the green levy on gas and electricity bills.
October 12, 2021
Gas is dear due to restricted supply and the fact that much of the supply is in other nations control. Who can blame the market for making the most of it while the current situation pertains.
It is a situation 100% of our governments making. They are the prisoner of pillow talk, the compliant sheep to the green lobby and sufferers of a cerebral blockage leading to a lack of action to resolve matters. They have had ten years at least in seeing it coming, well it has arrived and now they act like lamped rabbits, frozen awaiting despatch. Meanwhile the USA, who took the right action. reputedly enjoy gas prices one sixth of what we are expected to pay. It disgusts me that government can be so stupid. Sir Ian Brady of the 22 committee along with your grouping of realists need to walk in on Boris and demand an end to it.
We have gas to the west of Shetland, in the North Sea and beneath the Trough of Bowland. Start extracting it, building up storage capacity and producing energy at a sensible price. We are on the brink of industries closing down directly due to the cost of energy. It is as if we have a government determined to destroy the UK by putting us at the mercy of any political force that would destroy us and being complicit in the process.
October 12, 2021
Yesterday, the 11th October, the Global Warming Policy Foundation published an authoritative report titled āScoping Net Zeroā.
This informative and interesting document gives a clear account of the reasons that Net Zero is doomed to failure.
It is essential reading for anyone who truly wishes to understand the problems and ultimate futility of the Governmentās current decarbonisation policy.
October 12, 2021
Most people are coming to the conclusion that Boris will do nothing to retreat from his net-zero idiocy, even if it means the lights go out and factories close for good.
Despite many voices now telling the government to change course, there is no confidence that they are either listening or will even try to make things better.
This is a government that is so convinced that they can chart a course through troubled seas, with their eyes closed, that they are totally unaware that we are heading for a Titanic sized iceberg, and complete disaster. Or maybe that course was deliberately plotted?
Whatever happens, we will see the nudgers in all government departments telling us that the chaos couldn’t have been avoided, and at no time was it the fault of government. Yet more deceit to add to that already accumulated.
October 12, 2021
Some are missing the real issue, of course there are always alternate supplies, one could even create gas again out of another cheap and plentiful resource [1], we could allow Fracking, in a decade or so we could have some new nuclear power station ready (assuming we start the building work this week), but not any of that helps our industries (or consumer) today, this month, this winter. They need help, real help, now! That likely means real money put on the table by HMT, what we do not need is yet another yacking shop that gets zero done but looks good for the govt on the news cycles. In short, if this govt, country, is to survive we need someone prepared to intervene “before breakfast, dinner and tea”, so to speak, but not a europhile this time…
[1] although our PM/cabinet would likely have to their ‘green’ credentials
October 12, 2021
There is far more political danger for the PM, for the govt, should they not do the ‘right things’ out of fear the chancellor might feel a need to resign than act correctly, speedily, but loose a chancellor in the process.
October 12, 2021
For the planet it is not sensible to close down our industries through uneconomic ānet zeroā gas prices only to import the same goods from countries that are using coal for power such as China., India and Germany.
But for the fifth column of Marxists and EU supporters who inhabit Parliament, the civil service and quangos it makes perfect sense.
October 12, 2021
Sir John,
LNG tankers are not powered by Diesel – they use boiled off methane (which would otherwise go into the atmosphere) to generate steam. They are actually steam powered!
Part of the problem with the use of natural gas is that we became too dependent on it when it was cheap (and not imported).
October 12, 2021
Morning John,
You must be very busy keep up the good work.
The banking lobby cheered on by Citi bank are going to make it worse John. This should be debated on in the house. You should give your input on it in parliament.
The one-trick New Keynesian ponies are back in town
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=48487
Empirical evidence is starting to show they have the whole interest rate thing backwards. Actually increasing interest rates is inflationary at the margins.
Why ?
Well when the BOE increases interest rates that increases the cost of credit and business just pass that increased cost onto consumers via higher prices.
And you have the interest income channels. If interest rates rise those that have savings get more Ā£’s. The larger the debt to GDP ratio the bigger the effect.
More importantly.
The spot and forward price for a non perishable commodity imply all storage costs, including interest expense. Therefore, with a permanent zero-rate policy, and assuming no other storage costs, the spot price of a commodity and its price for delivery any time in the future is the same.
However, if interest rates were, say, 10%, the price of those commodities for delivery in the future would be 10% (annualised) higher.
That is, a 10% interest rate implies a 10% continuous increase in prices, which is the textbook definition of inflation! It is the term structure of risk free rates itself that mirrors a term structure of prices which feeds into both the costs of production as well as the ability to pre-sell at higher prices, thereby establishing, by definition, inflation.
Raising interest rates is inflationary.
Not only do The BOE believe increasing interest rates fights inflation . The BOE believe slashing interest rates causes inflation.
Well the EU and Japan tried that for decades even going into negative rate territory. They couldn’t cause inflation to hit their 2% targets. They suffered from deflation.
Because cutting interest rates is deflationary. For all the same reasons increasing is inflationary.
For every Ā£ borrowed there is a Ā£ saved, so any reduction in interest costs for borrowers corresponds to an identical reduction for savers. The only way a rate cut would result in increased borrowing to spend would be if the propensity to spend of borrowers exceeded that of savers.
The economy, however, is a large net saver, as government is an equally large net payer of interest on its outstanding debt. Therefore, rate cuts directly reduce government spending and the economy’s private sector’s net interest income.
If the BOE are correct Turkey and Argentina would have the strongest currencies in the world. They don’t.
Some countries like New Zealand have started raising interest rates already thinking they are fighting inflation. Just sit back and watch what happens. They will start to make it worse not fix it. Be caught in a trap forever raising thinking they are fighting it when in actual fact they will cause it even more.
The BOE could do the same here if we are not careful. It needs to be debated.
The small to medium sized companies always get hurt by these decisions.
October 12, 2021
I suggest you revisit the history of the post ERM period. High real interest rates squashed inflation rapidly. Investment needed to pay for itself, ending much squandering. Cutting working capital through supply chain management was worthwhile, and produced more efficient companies. The temptation for government to be profligate was removed. Saving and paying off debt was rewarded. Excess money was not chasing goods. That only started again with the property bubble, fuelled by excessive mortgage lending, particularly to the BTL sector, but also to homeowners treating their homes as an ATM to fund luxury car purchases etc.
October 12, 2021
You are correct that interest rates enter into storage economics. However, that does not imply that prices are going to rise by the cost of interest. Higher interest rates merely serve to encourage less stockholding. If there is oversupply, then the prompt price has to be at a sufficient discount to pay for the costs of storage (which include hire of space, losses that might occur, security, perhaps costs of keeping storage heated etc.). Contango markets are often associated with periods of underlying price decline, as they represent oversupply. The existence of a futures or forward market allows for resale for later delivery at a price that guarantees a margin over storage costs, and hedges the stock against falling prices. If the market is still in surplus, then the hedge can be rolled over and the stock kept for a further period, adding another sliver of profit.
October 12, 2021
The Governmentās idea to unilaterally electrify everything is economic madness.
Firstly because electricity is far more expensive than fossil fuels, secondly because there is as yet no way to store electricity other than for short periods, needed because renewables are unreliable, and thirdly because of the enormous costs to convert transport and heating to BEVs and heat pumps and to upgrade the National Grid in every street in the UK.
A better solution is to convert existing ICEs and home heating boilers to using natural gas/methane, which emits far less CO2 than other fossil fuels, and use the existing distribution infrastructure for gas.
At the same time we start increasing the quantities of green methane (biogas) through anaerobic digestion plants running on waste and agricultural products such as grass. Green fertiliser is a by-product.
In addition, methane biogas can be produced, and hence energy stored, when the wind farms are producing more electricity than needed, through the electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen which then is used with CO2 in the Sabatier process to produce methane biogas, a process used in the International Space Station.
October 12, 2021
The Government has been warned for years that scrapping our own coal, oil, gas and shale gas options was blinkered and would result in unreliable energy supply. It’s all been ignored whilst they pursue their obsessive goal of eliminating our 1% of CO2 emissions (and our manufacturing base).
FACTS are so inconvenient for the Eco-Loons who infest Whitehall, Westminster and Highgrove, so I don’t expect them to change course any time soon. The Green Lunatics are in charge of the Asylum.
PS. Any chance of Prince Charles being told to butt out of politics? What a dreadful King he is going to be.
October 12, 2021
Completely agree Donna
October 12, 2021
but he could be a lot more entertaining than our wonderful, long-serving Queen – bless her.
October 12, 2021
We are told we have huge reserves of gas beneath our feet. So…frack it.
We can then supply UK industry with competitively priced fuel. We can burn it in power stations to provide electrical energy for all consumers, whether commercial or domestic. Oh and by the way, we are also told that carbon capture (in the form of carbon dioxide gas) means that the “effluent” gas can be kept and sold to the food processing industry
Finally, at today’s prices, produce more gas than we need and sell it to the world and make some money!!
October 12, 2021
What a great idea….I wish our government had the vision
October 12, 2021
The whole market needs to be made simple for business
My business mobile phone tariff is the same whether its business or personal
My business petrol fuel tariff is the same whether its business or personal
My electricity is a business tariff which I forced into
My gas is a business tariff which I forced into
Now the big question for SirJ, this government and fellow readers
āWhy isnāt there one set energy tariff like petrolā
āWhy arenāt the unit tariffs displayed on the home page of energy providersā
October 12, 2021
Boris needs to revert to his manifesto commitment to reduce net zero by 2050 not 2030.
I read this was recommended by the Climate Change Committee – google ccc.org.uk reaching net zero in the UK.
“The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Our purpose is to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change.”
I assume these people are all STEM graduates, geographers and the like but it is not clear who they are and how they are qualified.
UK emissions were 48% below 1990 levels in 2020.
October 12, 2021
The list of people who prepared the last CCC report āProgress in reducing emissions: 2021 Report to Parliamentā, June 2021, 224 p, theccc.org.uk is given on page 5 of that report.
The list of members of the CCC for 2018-2019 is given on page 19 of the āAnnual Report and Accountsā available on assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
For the CCC in 2020-2021 it is in a similarly titled report still on the theccc.org.uk website and appears on pages 26-27 (and their remuneration on page 34).
October 13, 2021
Thank you Hefner. Very interesting, lots of professors at the top table but it doesn’t give their qualifications in the recent report. However, for anyone here decrying the lack of stem education in government could be reassured if committees like this with a Chairman and eight senior members and just under 40 staff put these people and their qualifications on their website in ‘about us’ and perhaps the members of parliament that orders and pay for all of this specialist advice on our behalf can point this out. I suppose though a concern would still be the stem consultants could bamboozle an MP with no STEM knowledge and suggest changes that don’t meet with this Conservative Govenments objectives.
There is also an Adaption Committee for England- paid by Defra – that feeds information to the CCC.
October 12, 2021
JR: “If gas is dear you need more of it or a better alternative”
Or a better ballance of electricity generation. Including Nuclear, then we’d not have to consume so much gas, and it can be used in industry, where it’s used for loads of processes including fertilizer production.
But LAWKS! with a run on gas, and power cuts looming, how are we going to run HS2?
‘Coz everyone knowz that’s the most important project in the UK today. ( certainly one of the most expensive).
Probably could have built one, maybe two nuclear power plants for the cost of HS2, so far.
October 12, 2021
But the HS2 website says its ambition is ānet-zeroā thatās way its costing Ā£150bnā¦.and weāll probably import the trains from China so net zero to us again
October 12, 2021
glen cullen: “thatās way its costing Ā£150bn ..”
According to Bloomberg Hinkley point C is due to cost Ā£23billion.
So, for the price of a high speed train that there is little evidence anyone much cares to use, we could have had six nuclear power stations.
NB: “According to WIKI, Lord Berkeley, the deputy chair of the Oakervee Review, disagreed with Oakervee’s findings and suggested that the cost of the project could now be as high as Ā£170 billion.”
October 12, 2021
Yeah – its INSANE
October 12, 2021
any more bids.?..why are all those hands going up?
October 12, 2021
We are now facing the most serious political and financial crisis that I can recall. We cannot even begin to think of recovery until Johnson is removed. This will not happen before Christmas.
All moves towards NetZero should be immediately suspended pending an urgent cost/benefit revue. We urgently need a wise and courageous person to lead us through this.
October 12, 2021
Runaway inflation is about to shock this country as never before.
October 13, 2021
No Longer Anonymous: “Runaway inflation is about to shock this country as never before.”
Last years reckless profligacy will have to be paid for some how. Shutting down the economy, destroying 20% of GDP and then printing sterling to paper over the chasm, is going to be costly.
The sterling zone joins the Lira club.
October 12, 2021
Oh lawks a mercy!
The price of cake is a-rising cos there aināt no wind and us canāt get no flour.
Mine some coal.
Make some gas!
October 12, 2021
I wouldn’t worry about it, all come right at the end of the day. Read a report from the MOD about property maintenance 2020, cost to maintain the army land and buildings 4.6 billion pounds in one year, the property and land is worth 34 billion pounds. Nice one. That would paid for for gas.
October 12, 2021
There are enough ex-soldiers living on the streets. Your dumb plan would have many of the serving ones there are well.
October 12, 2021
Off topic, as widely reported this afternoon Lord Frost will make a speech in Lisbon setting out the UK’s demands for changes to the Irish protocol, including the exclusion of the EU’s court.
But something else that struck me when I glanced at this article about it in an Irish newspaper:
https://www.thejournal.ie/frost-to-demand-end-of-role-of-european-court-in-northern-ireland-protocol-5571796-Oct2021/
was the ill-informed silliness of some of the comments made by readers.
Not for the first time, our government fails to counter anti-British and anti-Brexit propaganda:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/09/30/my-interview-on-gb-news/#comment-1264197
October 12, 2021
Interesting interview on R4 this morning with Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, if I understood him correctly, the NIP is its self in breach of Article 1 of the Good-Friday agreement!
October 12, 2021
There’s the world of difference between its being in breach in his opinion, and its actually being in breach.
October 12, 2021
@HLH; Try reading what I said again, and then perhaps read Article 1 of the GFA. It is not ‘opinion’, it is a legally binding document text, backed by international law at the UN (I believe the extract below is the pertinent clause in question);
October 12, 2021
All of the anti brexit propaganda is not coming from Ireland.. in fact most of it is coming from English commentators who now know they were horribly lied to and tricked.. Lord Frost might go on about the NIP but it changes things not one bit and as for Sir Jeffrey Donaldson claiming to speak for the majority in NI well he doesn’t .. he speaks for a narrow cohart of the DUP leadership.. in fact things are going swimingly in NI with no empty supermarket shelves and no problems with petrol delivery? Any shortages are being fixed with deliveries from ROI
October 12, 2021
Indeed, those who refused to accept the result of the referendum bear a heavy burden of responsibility for the mess that Brexit became. It is probably just as well that Tony Benn died in 2014 and so did not have to witness the appalling anti-democratic unpatriotic behaviour of his son.
October 13, 2021
@Denis Cooper; Yours is utter clap-trap, Tony Benn was a democrat, not an autocrat! I suggest you listen to Tony Benn’s own comments on the issue of our EEC membership after the 1975 referenda, whilst he accepted the democratic will as expressed in that vote he never gave fighting the cause he believed in, dust yourself down, one battle lost, but the war is not, live to fight another battle.
Tony Benn would have accepted his sons right to hold differing opinions. Nothing is ever set in stone, a future govt would have ever right (especially if a manifesto pledge) to seek EEA membership for example, if they can not then we no longer live in a democracy.
October 13, 2021
It is one thing to hold a different opinion, it is another to work to overturn the result of a referendum in which you were just one of over 46 million who expressed their opinions.
October 13, 2021
@Denis Cooper; “it is another to work to overturn the result of a referendum”
Duh? What you suggest Hilary Benn did/does is no more than what his father did (the morning after the night before, ‘a battle is lost, the war can still be won’), no more than what UKIP did, no more than what our host did, no more than what you did, according to your rational above, we had a referenda (in 1975), that should have been the end of it! If it was OK, democratic, for those wanting the UK to leave the EEC/EU to carry on fighting for their wish, despite the electorate, then it is also OK and democratic for those wanting us to not leave/re join to carry on with their fight, anything else is NOT democracy, NOT a politically free country.
Also, in 2016, Brexit was never defined, not by Vote Leave nor even UKIP, the only group to clearly outline an exit plan were those advocating ‘Flexit’, a form of BRINO in reality, like Norway, Iceland, the UK would have had to carry on obeying many EU laws.
October 14, 2021
The Benn Act is named after the son, not the father.
October 12, 2021
@Massa; It is you who totally misses the point, it is not shortages per se but shortages of GB goods in NI, no one has ever suggested that EU27 single market products can not reach NI via the ROI…!
October 12, 2021
New law coming out next year on EV vehicles charging at home, must have smart chargers connected to the internet so that they can only be used at certain time during the day.
October 12, 2021
Paul: “must have smart chargers connected to the internet so that they can only be used at certain time during the day.”
Smart meters, smart chargers, it’s the same thing, demand management. That’s all the so called ‘Smart meters’ are, is an expensive method of electricity rationing.
October 12, 2021
You couldn’t make it up. Really, you couldn’t but it would make a great new Yes Minister series.
October 12, 2021
…and I still can’t connect from my first floor apartment….like 2/3’s of people in London
October 12, 2021
Glen Cullen: “ā¦and I still canāt connect from my first floor apartment ”
You might try the Starlink service, by some accounts it provides better down/up speeds than most domestic internet providers. It’s a bit pricey though.
October 12, 2021
Thanks for the infoā¦.not sure how it will help but Iāll give it a go
I’ve only got 8 years till Iām forced to buy an electric car
October 13, 2021
glen cullen: “Iāve only got 8 years till Iām forced to buy an electric car”
I think the British government has been taken over by mental midgets.
It is insane to mandate the electrification of the automotive fleet when there is insufficient power distribution capacity ( not even talking about charging points, or energy supply ) to be able to charge the batteries in those vehicles.
We’ve had a succession of stupid Tory leaders, how does the Tory party manage to produce such dolts, and promote them to leadership position?
After all, this crazy situation is the Tory party’s fault, they’ve been implementing the gormless energy policies the Communists have been advocating.
October 12, 2021
who objects to a fat power cable hanging from your flat outside their windows for when you can park right outside the flat on the ground floor for you to connect your EV?
October 12, 2021
Iāll give it a goā¦.but it could get a bit nippy in winter with the window open all night….as it is no one can afford to put the gas heater on
October 12, 2021
@paul; Sounds like a very tall story to me…
October 13, 2021
Funny, I don’t seem to remember that in any pre-election promise or manifesto ?
October 12, 2021
I’m afraid the government is utterly incompetent and disfunctional. We have Kwarteng being insulted by anonymous Treasury ‘sources’. Why doesn’t the PM identify who did that briefing and sack them? How can you allow two of your departments to openly attack the other? Then we have Truss and Raab squabbling over Cheevening. Why doesn’t the PM just make a decision and tell them to shut up? Then we have a spike in energy prices leading to a closedown in factories. And a lack of HGV drivers doing the same, as well as leading to cargo ships no longer being able to unload here. And the PM is taking no action to reverse the damaging EU policies that are leading to both these problems: the carbon levies in terms of energy prices and the CPC and limited working hours of HGV drivers in terms of driver shortages.
The Home Secretary cannot stop a few dozen protesters from blocking our roads, and tens of thousands of illegal immigrants from entering Britain, and does not deport all the bogus asylum-seekers. The MoD cannot manage its estate, and Lord Frost is still huffing and puffing over the NI Protocol and fisheries without actually taking action. The PM keeps hinting at adopting more nuclear energy, but still the RR SMRs have not been approved, and gene editing is talked about but not legislated for. Our exporters to the EU face new restrictive rules but we allow EU exporters to the UK to sell here without imposing similar restrictions on them, leaving our manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage. Billions are continuing to be spent on the failed and now completely unnecessary Test & Trace, while the government is breaking its promises and increasing taxation, thereby also detering business investment. The French President has announced a ā¬30 billion investment programme in French manufacturing, while our PM does nothing to help our companies grow and export more.
All these are problems caused by the stupidity, incompetence and cowardice of Boris Johnson (not as the cretinous Remoaners keep parroting, of Brexit). Until Tory MPs wake up and get rid of Boris there will be no change. And as a great man once said: “No change, no chance”.
October 13, 2021
But he does do a good impression of a Pound Shop Churchill which his backbenchers seem to like.
/sarc
October 12, 2021
The government’s failure to make CHEAP ENERGY a top priority is leading to a wide range of failures and crises right across the board. From manufacturing to farming – the whole country is grinding to a halt because of the government’s failure to plan and legislate for CHEAP energy. As sir John has repeatedly said, we need to increse our domestic food production, but instead the very OPPOSITE is happening, with agricultural production being CUT due to high energy costs. From pig farming to fruit and vegetables, the entire industry in now in crisis. Here is an interesting report: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/energy-costs-food-security-labour-shortage-b1936259.html
Apart from cheap energy, the other thing farmers need is the mass adoption of robotic harvesters, as I have mentioned before. But the brain-dead government are asleep at the wheel and are doing nothing to make the development, production and adoption of these a national priority. I see Labour have now woken up on this issue and said they want more food grown in the UK (while the Tory government claim that imported food can count as food security). No wonder I no longer worry about Labour getting into government. I will be voting Reform UK, and no cries of ‘that will let Labour in’ will put me off.
October 12, 2021
Dear Sir John,
Where are the new sources of Gas in the UK ? Have we emptied the North Sea yet?
Is North Sea ( UK waters) Gas delivery running at full capacity ? If not why?
These questions do not seem to be addressed by the Media or Government.
How many trees have Wokingham Borough council allowed to be cut down this Year?
or taken action against those that have done so? Trees like CO2, plant more forests not Housing Estates in Wokingham, which is really the problem causing climate change.
October 12, 2021
Too late! Wokingham is covered with housing. Come friendly bombs and fall on Wokingham. It is a horrible, horrible place now. In the time Mr. Redwood has been an MP the population has more than doubled and the traffic is now horrible.
Iām so pleased I escaped to West Dorset. This is what England should be. Iām pleased to see house prices on the rise here. We donāt want Wokingham emptying and moving here – like I did! Stay and enjoy your sweat box.
Reply Wokingham is a great place to live, as testified by many surveys and by all those who want to buy homes here.
October 12, 2021
I’ve lived in Wokingham for almost 40 years and have never been asked anything along those lines in any survey.
Perhaps the council is only concerned with those who live in Wokingham town rather than the rest of the borough which is where all the development blight is.
October 12, 2021
what did the survey say when the long-term residents were asked?
October 12, 2021
Reply to reply. And they have the bonus of a hard working politician.
October 12, 2021
With ‘Boris’ as PM a government of chaos, inconsistency and unreliabilty will be the norm. No-one can know what he believes because I don’t think he has any beliefs other than whatever he think builds on his popularity and ego.
He dare not approve sensible new gas or coal extraction so our manufacture will be at the risk of collapse constantly. He won’t mind if that occurs because Carrie Greta and Charles will be pleased.
October 13, 2021
It, I believe, has nothing to do with the people you mention. But it has everything to do with the Climate Change Act which compels the UK Government to pursue Net Zero.
October 12, 2021
If our government opened up the shell north sea gas field and the shale gas in Cumbria, opened up old coal mines and opened up coal fired power stations, Iāve no doubt that the wholesale cost of gas would drop like a stone
Its this continued green revolution which is pushing gas prices high
The only alternative is to cancel the green revolution
October 13, 2021
glen
That is the whole point. If you increase the price you reduce consumption. By reducing consumption you reduce the CO2 emissions the Green Meanies fuss about. You also increase the governments tax take š Something they never tell you about.
October 12, 2021
Elsewhere, Today Macron promises 25billion for France to ‘Build Back Better’
“Nuclear power and a plan to build smaller reactors to drive the mass production of green hydrogen and electricity for clean cars ” & “low-carbon plane and the battery sector, another ā¬2bn on sustainable agriculture, ā¬3bn to produce 20 ābiomedicinesā by 2030 and ā¬2bn on culture, space and deep sea exploration as France is the worldās āsecond marine powerā.
In the UK the Government is chucking Ā£100 billion just at a railway line that doesn’t actually start or finish were they say it will. That’s the UK ‘Building Back Better’
The Worlds Political classes are all egotistical snake oil salesmen. Put aside how they treat their people(or is that much different) China is the only Country with a cohesive plan to build an economy and lead the World.
October 12, 2021
Despite the fact that I left my comment early this morning when there only half a dozen comments mine is still waiting moderation, did I touch a nerve?
October 12, 2021
No. Regardless of the price of gas you need to independent of foreign producers. For heavenās sake go public and say that Kwarteng is wrong (and foolish) to deny Sheāll a licence to produce our own gas. What is it with our bloody politicians? Youād think they were in thrall to foreign powers.
Reply I have pressed for such a licence!
October 12, 2021
It is a sad day in the Andy house. We have had to replace my young sonās wonderful EU passport – one which would have enabled him the right to live and work bureaucracy free around Europe – with one of the lousy and cheap looking black Brexitist ones, made in Poland, which entitle him to remain permanently stuck on Plague Island with a bunch of angry, elderly, xenophobes.
Opportunities stolen from him by the Brexitists – who have proven themselves even more incompetent than any of us could have predicted. Still, my son is young. He will get to enjoy the moment we rejoin the EU and, with any luck, he will be involved in the prosecutions of the Brexitists. Prison is coming.
October 12, 2021
Andy: “We have had to replace my young sonās wonderful EU passport ā one which would have enabled him the right to live and work bureaucracy free around Europe .. ”
You can always claim dual nationality, Andy. I heard the RoI passports are fairly cheap.
But doyou really think the EU is bureaucracy free??
October 12, 2021
If he is “permanently stuck” in the UK, then why buy him a passport in the first place young Andy?
October 12, 2021
I think if he reads history he will realise his selfish father had years and years, in fact the son’s whole life up to recently to take the family off to 27 wonderful countries instead of being ‘stuck’ here.
A sense a bitter young man growing up…
October 12, 2021
After the Fukushima earthquake Japan bought large volumes of LNG, sending world market prices sharply higher. We responded by cutting our gas imports and burning more coal, which was much cheaper.
October 12, 2021
This government lacks one essential commodity – common sense.
October 12, 2021
John Hatfield : “This government lacks one essential commodity ā common sense.”
And a back bone.
October 12, 2021
Common sense, a backbone and integrity
October 12, 2021
Reality, in the form of rolling blackouts and wide range industrial failures (and the resulting unemployment), is a sad necessity for these green proponents which wish to live in happy-land, which includes our current PM who talks about quadrupling wind power production, which will bring additional supply uncertainty at a huge cost.
As you said Sir Redwood, its not just this winter, it is the next 4-5 years.
The companion problem of high energy cost is the exact opposite of ‘leveling up’, the 30% struggling with the cost of living now, will suffer huge increases in cost of heating, which will force the government to provide some sort of wide spread social support.
This additional cost will not be welcome by BOE and the international community which will demand higher interest.
October 12, 2021
Have no plan, money already been spent during lockdown, just saying it seem alot of money. If you buy a EV charge before May next year no need to connected to internet.
October 12, 2021
Across Eurasia, countries are prioritising filling up their depleted gas storage facilities to cover spikes in their domestic markets this winter. Particularly the EU27 and the Russians. All have been hit with cold winters and hot summers in a row recently, depleting their storage to half what it was planned to be. Alas, the UK doesn’t have any storage worth talking about; 16.7 TWh (1,500 million cubic meters, 8 unrestricted days at current consumption. France and Germany have around 80 – 90 days worth each.
Interesting to think that in Germany, where the four 48 inch pipes of Nord Stream 1 & 2 terminate, will together be able to deliver 300 million cubic meters of NG a day; when Nord Stream 2 gets past EU bureaucracy and commissioned that is. German gas consumption is around average 290 million cubic meters a day (UK 210).
Leaving the EU internal energy market was a very dumb thing to do. The more gas and electricity interconnectors we can establish with the continent, the more likely UK prices will drop close to EU Hub prices; and, cease to be very nice little earners for foreign government agencies to own.
October 12, 2021
France relies on nuclear.
Germany relies now on coal.
The UK relies on gas.
European companies will still want to sell the UK energy.
Brexit is irrelevant in that desire to trade.
October 12, 2021
Wow, after five years of discussion, you sill don’t get that we can trade with the EU – including energy – without being part of it?
October 12, 2021
Actually UK gas prices have been consistently below those on the Continent in recent weeks, with the result that we have provided substantial gas exports to Belgium and some to the Netherlands as well. Their storage remains below where it ought to be for the time of year. We have little storage to spare (just a handful of LNG cargoes). You can see the picture in the charts included in the daily summary report from the Grid’s prevailing view website here:
http://mip-prd-web.azurewebsites.net/DailySummaryReport
October 13, 2021
DSR shows system prices, have a look at https://www.powernext.com/futures-market-data
On the first chart, compare the UK NBP price to the Dutch TTF price. UK price is in pence per therm, the rest are traded in ā¬/MWh, multiply pence per therm by 0.396 to convert at the current exchange rate.
October 12, 2021
The IMF published its World GDP projections today, and one thing I noticed is that under the euro area they break out the top four European economies as separate line items. And by the way, those four are distinct economies with different parameters.
Breaking the four out in this way it’s the obvious thing to do, and it’s what I would do. I would assume that my readers care about Germany, France, Italy and Spain and care much less about the rest of the EU.
But after fifty years of “integration” isn’t that quite a comment?
October 12, 2021
Frostie is still threatening the EU with Article 16, repeating the threat yesterday in Lisbon, and he is closing in on the key issue – jurisdiction over disagreements.
He has put his finger on the most powerful point, which is that the NIP has lost consent in one entire community in NI, which is code for saying that the NIP is now a threat to the GFA, not a support of it.
October 12, 2021
Correct
October 15, 2021
Yes, it all underscores very boldly what a stupid, stupid thing brexit is, doesn’t it?