The bloggers who come here to criticise everything I say attacked me for not saying Corporation tax will go up by 6% on Mr Sunak’s plans.
If a company earns a profit of Ā£100 it currently pays Ā£19 tax.
Under Mr Sunak’s plan the company would pay Ā£25 tax.
The tax bill has gone up by 31% not by 6%.
Why do you always criticise everything I say even when it means you seek to deny basic arithmetic?
July 15, 2022
An institutional employer generally has a right to know whether any applicant for a job has a criminal conviction.
Why then, is the country denied the right to know whether any of those applying for the job of PM have one for partying at No. 10 during lockdown, when we couldn’t even visit dying loved ones?
July 15, 2022
Does a Fixed Penalty Notice give you a criminal record/ conviction NHL?
When I did a quick search, various articles said they did not.
You are the barrack room lawyer on here, so perhaps you would explain why you are right.
July 15, 2022
Sir Keir said that he would resign if he got one, didn’t he?
Would you have pleaded with him not to do so in that event on your above “basis”?
July 15, 2022
Poor red herring response from you NHL.
Is a FPN a criminal conviction?
Does it give you a criminal record?
Do you know?
July 15, 2022
I think partygate has run its course, best move on. Your comment on relatives that could not be visited is pertinent, how many dying relatives were you prevented from visiting. The real lesson is that we should never repeat this error or many others associated with Covid lockdown. In saying this I am only being wise after the event. We need to cut those who had to make these decisions a lot of slack.
July 15, 2022
People often confuse ( or do not know the diference between) percent and percentage points.
The Corporation Tax increase is 31 percent : it is an increase of 6 percentage points
July 15, 2022
The most common confusion I find is people thinking that when you take VAT off something you take off 20% when in fact you take off only 20%/120% or 1/6.
July 15, 2022
Sir J,
3 reasons for the reaction of bloggers:
1. You switched from Thatcher’s numbers in absolute terms (corporation tax cut from 54% to 34%) to Sunak’s in percentage terms (tax rise of 31% from 15%). Inconsistency in presenting comparable figures is bad practice.
2. The maths skills of the population are rubbish, thanks to decades of sub-standard teaching.
3. Critics criticise.
Moneyweek has a good article today pointing out why low corporation taxis the best option for future PM. Worth a read.
Also worth asking the candidates where will they cut government spending such that they can afford all the other tax cuts,
July 15, 2022
Indeed, Sir John.
And an increase in a given NI rate from say 3% to 4% is not a 1% increase is it?
It’s 33%.
Reply Yes of course
July 15, 2022
Indeed and had you used that same way to illustrate the Thatcher Tax Cuts they would have been:-
Margaret Thatcher and her Chancellors cut Income tax by ~ 25%
She cut Top rate Income tax by over ~ 50%
She cut the top taxes on savings Income by ~ 58%
She cut Corporation Tax by ~ 35%.
Rishi Sunak increased the Corporation tax rate by 31% to 25%
He raised the NI rate by 10%
He imposed a new Digital services Tax
He imposed a windfall tax
He invented a Social Care Tax and supported Net Zero and even the basket case HS2.
And then he wants us to believe he can be the new Margaret Thatcher!
He is like Thatcher, Ed Milliband, Blair, Theresa May, Cameron and most rather dire current leadership candidates in that he has foolishly fallen for the scientific clap trap and con trick that is the Net Zero lunacy though.
A great shame to lose the sensible Suella!
July 15, 2022
So Sunak is just another member of the tax and squander enemy.
July 15, 2022
Regardless of how figures are presented to take UK corporation tax to 25% is completely foolish.
Why do Germany & Luxembourg have around 15% and Republic of Ireland 12.5%?
Yes those are baseline rates but in all cases much lower than the 25% that Sunak had lined up for the UK.
July 15, 2022
The more tax companies pay his year and next the less they have to reinvest and the less incentive to invest. The result is lower tax receipts going forwards, fewer jobs and a far weaker economy. High (by government design) energy prices does similar huge damage.
July 15, 2022
Interesting blog JR. Your govt approved the highest taxation in 70 years, what does it matter about what percentage one element/part makes? Secondly, your party approved govt spending, presumably that meant printing, borrowing and tax rises. Your manifesto set out spending and no tax rises, both reneged on.
Your party and govt was going to balance the structural deficit changed time and again and booted into touch. How about Osborneās tax rises versus cuts! That did not happen, the exact opposite was true.
Your party cannot be trusted with the economy. Your partyās manifesto cannot be trusted at all. I have no doubt your figures are correct. I am not sure why you are so vexed. So a few percentages here or there seems rather irrelevant to me. The bigger picture shows me your party is toast because there is no way back in time for the next election. Trying to buy off those on welfare is not going to help but wind up the prudent, strivers, savers and those who just about mange (JAM) as your party labelled them.
Corbyn appeared to have a better grasp of finance than Sunak! His magic money tree no where near as big either.
Sunak or Mordaunt, Yuk, no thanks.
July 15, 2022
Why do you not tell the truth?
The tax rate changes in April 2023.
Tax rate for company profits of Ā£50009 remains at 19%
Only when profits reach Ā£250000 does the 25% apply.
Some honesty might help us make an informed decision.
July 15, 2022
Most companies investing from abroad would expect to make Ā£250k profit. In Ireland they’ll pay 15% tax.
July 15, 2022
Announcing it in advance causes ever more needless harm.
July 15, 2022
Because they are removers and labour supporters.
Soonack is only following WEF guidance.
July 15, 2022
Dear Sir John–Whatever next?–Soon you are going to have to stick in an “of what?” in any mention of percentages.
July 16, 2022
Indeed it is misleading to compare absolute with relative changes in figures, the same way he cannot continue with his GDP comparison figures without detailing whether they are GDP, GDP per capita, or GDP per capita PPP, or when comparing growth without specifying the exact period on which this figure applies.
That should be the minimum from somebody elsewhere commenting on investments.
People should be aware of politicians bringing figures in a dishonest way. The āhilariousā bit is how badly he reacts when he is called to task.
July 15, 2022
You have to ask why he did this?
Is it
1. to discredit Johnson and hasten his demise?
2. to curry favour with future handlers, such as Biden, elites abroad?
3. to deliberately hobble investment here, for reasons unknown?
Or ise he just a dolt?
July 15, 2022
Interestingly, Sir Patrick Vallance yesterday was promoting World Economic Forum policies on Net Zero and climate change to MPs.
Just in time to influence the leadership election to ensure that World Economic Forum policies prevail and that their candidate wins the contest!
Sir Patrick Vallance was wildly wrong on covid so why does anyone listen to him?
July 15, 2022
+many
July 15, 2022
Some critics are naĆÆve or just have a different perspective.
Many of the critics here seek to oppose SJR in whatever devious way they can muster.
They take advantage of his openness.
He has the power to silence them, yet he holds their Freedom of Speech higher with his personal quality of moderation.
July 15, 2022
Possibly because they’re innumerate. Or more likely, because they believe that “their truth” is more important than the facts.
A Prime Minister Sunak will be a disaster for the CONs of the John Major variety. He’s the lefty Establishment’s choice and is promising to deliver “more of the same” failed policies we’ve had stuffed down our throats since Blair entered No.10. He even sounds like Blair.
His personal circumstances (mega-wealthy, Green Card holding Globalist with a Non Dom wife) will doom him …. along with his track record of breaking Manifesto promises.
We need change and reform; not a Goldman Sachs trained, continuity-Blair wannabe.
July 15, 2022
Indeed Donna. Time for people to waken up to the threat posed by the globalists.
July 15, 2022
Your critics perhaps belong to the part of the population that does not “do” percentages or even sums.
July 15, 2022
Sunak is not fit to be Chancellor, never mind PM, but if the CONS MP’s wish to destroy their party, along with the damage he has done to the UK, then they should go ahead and keep pushing him onto the public and showing us how incompetent they are by promoting an economic ignoramus who doesn’t seem all that caring about the UK he is supposed to serve. He and Boris are a fine pair of demolition experts.
July 15, 2022
+1
July 15, 2022
+1
July 15, 2022
Sad to say that a number of your critics not only have a fundamental lack of basic economic principles (i.e. āgoodā economics as opposed to ābadā economics), they are lacking in basic arithmetic.
July 16, 2022
Go on, enlighten us ?
July 15, 2022
Sir JR. I’m sure there are some who come here simply to criticise. However the instance you highlight was a little confusing in how it was presented. I think this led to some of the negative comments.
July 15, 2022
At last you have explicitly stated what I am sure most on here think.
July 15, 2022
They are the same people who think the referendum was only won by 4% instead of the actual circa 8%.
July 15, 2022
Singapore now reporting Q2 growth 4.2% YoY.
Speaks for itself.
July 15, 2022
Not a fan of Mr Sunak for leader I am guessing Mr Redwood.
I am unable to find out who you do support Sir John. Is there a reason why?
The free market side of the party is struggling to coalesce behind a candidate, do you see this letting two more interventionist and authoritarian candidates go to the party for a vote or do you think when it comes down to three all will be well?
July 15, 2022
2 + 2 = 5
Truth and logic no longer matter, only power
July 15, 2022
Ms Braverman made the mistake of suggesting doing something about immigration, and the rest of the MPs said ‘Oh no you don’t’. Whether or not she was sincere is another matter. They now seem to be manoeuvering to present the membership with a choice between two Rejoiners who will do nothing to disconnect us from the EU and prevent later reunion.
July 15, 2022
+1
Braverman wanted to get rid of ECHR which meant leaving EU and being in control of immigration. To keep it means public can be lied to and keep hope alive of rejoining EU.
July 15, 2022
The ECHR is not an EU organisation, it is a different cooperation between European countries. I expect Ms Braver an is aware of that.
JF
July 15, 2022
Braverman.
JF
July 15, 2022
The ECtHR is part of the CoE, not the EU, BUT the EU has a rule that a country MUST sign up to the ECtHR in order to join and be a member of the EU. So it is absolutely true to say that to leave the ECtHR we had to leave the EU.
July 15, 2022
Indeed – but don’t forget how many come on here just to cause aggravation, and there are plenty of other issues that badly need discussing.
It’s important for everyone to understand the resulting issues of a heavy tax raising federalist should he ever make it to #10.
We hear the other candidates suggesting tax cuts and a reversal of HMG policies, but how will that work out, given that they supported tax raises and most of the other policies now allegedly being binned?
Are they so fickle?
Let’s not get distracted by side issues, because while there are several ways of looking at who actually runs this country, the main thing I want known about is the degree of adherence by the remaining candidates to WEF policies.
July 15, 2022
It seems mr Sunak favoured tax rises as he was unable to restrain out of control spending driven by Boris Johnson and supported by almost all other ministers. Thatās reasonable enough as a tactic. After all with a dumb idea like spending Ā£100bn on hs2 – apart from anything else it could stop working at any moment if the workers decide to blackmail to govt! – what else was he to do? Sunak was the one to face down the shroud-wavers on lockdown – it seems he was by far the strongest on this, though Boris now claims the credit. He is a more credible as PM than Truss and more likely to beat the leftists and separatists at the next election. Mordaunt is clearly not credible.
So assuming the refreshingly honest and sensible Kemi Badenoch is knocked out, it seems Sunak is the best choice. Unless you want a left-nationalist coalition followed by PR etc
July 15, 2022
Keep going, Sir John. You are the most clued up MP I have ever heard and possess a great deal of common sense. I guess that comes with experience and actually having done the job previously in Cabinet. I am sure you have lots of supporters on this website. As is usual in life the detractors are always more vocal and without credible alternative policies.
July 15, 2022
Because it is not their twisted agenda Sir John!
July 15, 2022
19 divided by 100 = 1% or 0.19
25 divided by 0.19 =131.5789
Difference between Ā£19 (100%) and Ā£25 = 31.6%
For simplicity and lack of exaggeration call it 31%
In premiership electoral terms it is a whopping increase. For the benefit of industry, all those who work in it and the country as a whole I would prefer a reduction of a similar amount Ā£6 to a corporation tax rate of Ā£13. This would attract both internal and external investment such that the total corporation tax take from increased business activity could well exceed the current figure. It is called discounting to rapidly shift the barrow full of oranges that won’t last over a weekend. It results in the stall holder buying more fresh oranges for the following week. Simplistic maybe, but that is how commerce works.
July 15, 2022
It’s not about arithmetic, it’s about presentation. If two sets of data are being presented and the intention is to compare between them, just present both in the same way. There is no reason (other than to attempt to influence the reader in a particular direction or lead the reader to a particular conclusion) not to.
July 15, 2022
Sir JR
This is of course not fair but we have caught you a number of times where the information or the data to put it mildly has been a bit shaky.
July 15, 2022
“Why do you always criticise everything I say even when it means you seek to deny basic arithmetic?”
It’s because some of the “contributors” to this website are too thick to calculate basic arithmetic correctly.
July 15, 2022
If you were to reread what I wrote the other day you might get that I did not contradict your figures. I simply said that your Thatcherās figures were absolute and your Sunakās ones were relative, a common sleight-of-hand done in numerous companies end-of-year reports comparing different data sets usually done to bamboozle the shareholders.
July 15, 2022
Whilst acknowledging that some people struggle with basic arithmetic, you must admit that it is easy to manipulate people if you choose one set of numbers over another.
Why did your government put national insurance up by 10% recently?
The rate of corporation tax is increasing by 6% – from 19% to 25%. This represents a 31% increase in the amount of corporation tax a company would pay on the same amount of profits.
Itās how you – politically – choose to express things.
I donāt think I am one of those who come to this site just to argue. I agree with a lot of the things said here. My main beef is with the obsession with growth instead of efficiency and with your governmentās policies on housing and immigration. Iām all for small state and low taxes.
July 15, 2022
‘The rate of corporation tax is increasing by 6% ‘ That is wrong – it is increasing by 6 percentage points.
July 15, 2022
It is an anomaly of Arithmetic that both views are correct just as ‘average’ can be ‘mean’ or ‘median’.
As for an important political matter, now that the best candidate, Suella Braverman, in the leadership contest is out and Rishi Sunak is heading for the last two (though I can’t see him winning), the question is essentially who is the better (or less bad), Penny Morduant or Liz Truss.
I doubt whether either is up to the job, intellectually and probably in practical terms, and I don’t trust Liz Truss to do what she promises. Yet the critical question is who would do better or less badly in the next general election.
The problem with Penny Morduant is this. Though she would be a match for Starmer on a level playing field, the Conservatives will be on a very sticky wicket with an awful cost of living crisis and I doubt she is capable of fighting hard enough as Boris Johnson would have done and Liz Truss would probably do. Moreover Morduant cannot fight on the key social issue of transgenderism (having supported it herself). Of course that isn’t as important to people as the cost of living but whereas the man in the street does not understand economics, he does, however dim he may be, understand a man is not and cannot be a woman. That is much the best way to show the other parties are lunatic and hopefully most people whatever the difficulties won’t vote to let the lunatics take over the asylum. That is the Conservatives’ best chance.
So Liz Truss it must be to give the Conservatives a chance at the general election.
July 15, 2022
Great one Sir John. Who says you don’t have a sense of humour. I awaited those comments of bloggers, and they did come. They should watch more countdown.
July 15, 2022
Sir John,
Yes, the correct application of basic arithmetic by Net Zero enthusiasts would help in forming a realistic energy policy as well…
July 15, 2022
Not just some of the bloggers on here John, seems to me that the vast majority of the population are incapable of completing simple mathematics, and find it impossible to do any sort of mental calculation when a calculator of phone is not to hand.
Yet examination results suggest different, or are we deluding ourselves that education has improved, by lowering standards.
July 15, 2022
Recently I had a look at an A Level maths tuition book in Smiths. I did A Level, pure and applied maths in 1957 and I was impressed at the high level now as some stuff was beyond what I did particularly the calculus.
July 16, 2022
Wrinkle
How about the pass mark comparison then and now. ?
In many subjects now you can still get an “A” pass with less than 50% of the questions being correct it is reported.
July 15, 2022
I know JRM and one or two other Boris loyalists feel Rishi has betrayed Boris. But they need to get real. I havenāt read borisās book on Churchill yet, but perhaps it includes one of the great manās most notable quotes āif [the leader] is no good he must be poleaxedā. Rishi could see that Boris, for all his qualities, was no good as PM as it turned out. So he had to be poleaxed. We need also to remember Ronald Reaganās ā11th commandmentā: āthou shalt not speak ill of a fellow conservativeā. It looks like Rishi will win. Of course we must encourage him to jack his bad policies and adopt good ones. But then we need less carping from āthe rightā and get behind him so we can keep out the leftists and the separatists.
July 15, 2022
That’s one of the problems with percentages, many (maybe most) people don’t understand them so somebody who want to obfuscate can use them to do so. The tax rate goes up by 6%, the amount of tax paid increases by 31%, the politician can choose the number that suits his agenda.
N.B. this is not criticism aimed at you, just an observation that people generally should be wary of percentages being bandied about.
July 15, 2022
The problem is that people not only do not understand maths, but they also do not understand English! I hate it when people are either too STUPID or too SLOPPY to differentiate between ‘per cent’ and ‘percentage points’. So you are WRONG to say “The tax rate goes up by 6%” – NO, it goes up by 6 PERCENTAGE POINTS. Alternatively, as Sir John said, it goes up by 31 per cent.
July 15, 2022
X-Tory – thanks for that so I don’t have to repeat myself.
July 15, 2022
Off topic, is it really a good idea to have this 127% pro-EU chap:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/03/11/the-uk-single-market/#comment-1215238
still chairing the Commons Northern Ireland Select Committee and chipping in with stuff like this:
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/northern-ireland-affairs-committee-chair-simon-hoare-brands-former-brexit-negotiator-lord-frost-a-failed-minister-41841957.html
“I donāt wish to be rude but who the hell is an unelected, failed minister to tell any MP what to do?ā
If he had been doing his job properly as an MP and as the relevant committee chairman the Northern Ireland “conundrum” could have been solved long ago.
July 15, 2022
Electorally the most pressing problem is
the cost of living. The first target should be the cost of fuel of which Ā£0.45 in tax could be rsmoved at a stroke. It impacts on almost everything. Then think of VAT in terms of 15%, but removal in many cases. Finally have a total rethink of tax on the
individual and business. Many aspects of double taxation should go completely, the rest should be simlified. Which PM candidate is likely to agree. It is time to be bold.
July 15, 2022
When are the 100+ Sunak supporters going to realise that Sunak cannot win in the Party Members vote and is a huge electoral liability with voters too. He can surely never come back from his police fine, the green card, NonDom tax avoidance, vast tax increases, his pushing of expensive energy net zero lunacy, his inflationary money printing, his vast manifesto ratting tax increases, his extended lock down, his endless wasting of tax payers money (HS2, eat out to help out, fraudulent covid loans, loans for worthless degrees and furloughā¦)
July 15, 2022
Matt Hancock now supporting Sunak. Hethinks he is the man to beat Starmer & Sturgeon āhe has got what it takesā he says. Another nail in the coffin for Sunak.
Hancock needs to speak to some real voters. The tax to death, manifesto ratter, net zero pusher, non dom wife tax avoider, green card Sunak would be a disaster at a general election – even against the dire Starmer & Sturgeon.
July 15, 2022
It’s interesting that Conservative MPs have put ex bankers and wokeys in pole position and rejected the candidate who voted against tax rises and the green agenda. City corporations such as Lloyd’s Bank have warned against halting net zero such is their devotion to the WEF and green investments. The Party is for big green business.
When the result of this folly becomes evident next winter and it can’t be blamed on Russia, the Party will be on the way out.
How SJR Steve Baker and the few other sensible MPs can stomach being in the company of these con artists is a mystery.
July 15, 2022
Is it to do with some global agreement that seeks to bring the average of all corporate tax up to about 24%?
They want to stop cross border profit sharing whatever that might be ( like in Ireland maybe?)
So presumably Sunak is having global longings again.
July 15, 2022
Can we afford a war with a superpower much less with 2? I want a PM who know how to mind her own business!
July 15, 2022
This is why finance people talk about “basis points” to describe changes in interest rate percentages. The fact is there is a fundamental difference between a rate and a number.
July 15, 2022
Sir John, keep up the good work. Some would claim hot was cold… black was white. First comment here, usually I just read.
You are indeed correct and, as a business owner, I would prefer lower corporation taxation, not higher, so we can invest further and keep wages matching reality. I thought the plan was to lower taxes and boost the economy.
July 15, 2022
I’m not someone who criticises much that you say at all, but in this case the concern was that the “up by 31%” was different to the other figures, which were stated in terms that would be the equivalent of “up 6%”.
This piece shows that they’re getting under your skin. Please don’t let that happen.
I’m guessing you don’t read many other sites with political commentary available to the public (you probably wouldn’t have time), but there has been a massive upsurge in anti-UK, pro-EU comments and accounts since Brexit (strange that it didn’t happen in the run-up to the referendum – why wait until it’s over?). And that’s happening across all sites.
It’s not clear how many are genuine UK people – some high-volume posters on newspaper sites have been “outed” as EU MPs! But there’s also a known Russian disinformation factor at work, a “troll factory” has been shown to exist in St Petersburg and these people post on all the UK political sites (all of it utter claptrap, designed to annoy people and get them angrily posting something that would get them banned). This is all part of Russian “hybrid warfare”.
Since you read all posts here, you can filter – you’re not obliged to allow their posts through to appear on the site, so my suggestion would be to proactively filter out more drivel than is currently the case. It would make the site look less busy, but it may be a better refelction of the level of real engagement if the “grief posters” are filtered out?
Hope this helps.
July 15, 2022
Perhaps they were “educated” under the Blair regime? Whereby everyone should have had a chance to go to Uni but subject matter was irrelevant.
Thus those with a severe lack of mathematical knowledge could study TVs ‘Coronation Street’ instead. It’s so essential and very useful on a CV for a job requirement of intelligence, of course.
July 15, 2022
Could someone in government please tell the BBC weather to stop reporting āend of daysā heat-wave this Monday & Tuesday
July 15, 2022
They have already convinced Mp’s Portcullis House it is reported is going to be Closed Monday and Tuesday, as it’s going to be too hot to work.
I wonder what would happen if private industry did the same.
Has anyone has told Russia it’s too hot to attack Ukraine.
July 15, 2022
šš»We will decide, not BBC and their lefties.
Do your own thing guys
July 15, 2022
Just spent an hour and a quarter watching the candidates debate on ConservativeHome. What a bloody waste of time. Nothing but waffle, waffle, waffle from ALL of them. No concrete pledges, no details, nothing about illegal immigrants, HS2, net zero or Northern Ireland. On taxation there were no specific tax rates promised. Frankly there was nothing to inspire me about ANY of them. I was hoping there would be one I could pin my hopes on, but no. What a useless shower. Sir John, you know them best – who are you supporting, and why?
July 15, 2022
So Sunak is just another member of the tax and squander brigade. We need better.
July 15, 2022
Talking of understanding numbers…
Before being called to speak in climate debates, MPs should answer the following question:
Why is it stupid to try saving energy by decreasing the power of an electric kettle from 3 to 2kilowatts?
JF
July 16, 2022
You don’t save energy but you do reduce the load on the network and reduce the size of the spikes.