In the long run up to the March budget we have had a stream of bad numbers from the Treasury and Bank and a leak of a bad forecast from the OBR.
The dreadful December borrowing figures were designed to alarm, showing a massive £27.4 bn borrowing figure for the month. It had two main components. The first was £17.3 bn of so called debt interest, up by £8.7bn. This was the result of insisting on including the extra costs of the indexed debt where no cash payments are made so no actual increased borrowing took place for that purpose in December. It is true the government owes more devalued pounds to the holders of indexed debt. They will be repaid in full by rolling over the debt in due course, often many years away, when it falls due. Why is this muddled up with genuine bills paying cash for actual interest on debt?
The second was ÂŁ7bn on subsidies, another large rise, reflecting the temporary energy payments. As the government is rightly phasing most of those out this spring it is not a serious worry.
The figures also reveal that the Bank of England which had been sending cash to the government when it was making running profits on printing cash and buying bonds will create a painful negative ÂŁ8.7bn turn round this year as it starts losing money on bonds. Unlike other leading Central Banks the Bank of England will add to the government’s misery by selling bonds at a loss which it does not have to do, and requiring payment for the losses from the government. In the USA the Fed is also selling bonds but does not charge the taxpayers for the losses, taking the hit on its own balance sheet. In Euroland the Bank is not so far selling bonds to avoid this problem. The ONS says that end December the Bank was sitting on ÂŁ106bn of unrealised losses on its bond portfolio.
To cap all the red ink this puts into the figures we read the OBR may lower the long term growth assumptions to give us more debt and deficits in future years. it is important this does not become self validating. Force the Chancellor to impose high taxes and then you will get a lower growth rate and worse debt and deficit figures.
January 29, 2023
John, you need to realise the senior civil service deliberately publish invalid numbers to steer policy.
On friday another so called conspiracy theory was proven fact by an article in specialforcesnews, repeated in the Daily Mail and expressed by David Davies in The House of commons. A British army whistleblower revealed the cabinet office was directing an army unit known as the 77th Brigade to spy on British citizens over the lockdown and to coordinate the Government response including censoring social media and getting the ânudge unitâ to promote political propaganda.
Cabinet departments now effectively act as defacto Governments directing very significant long-term policies with no democratic mandate. A well timed sleight-of-hand from the OBR would certainly fall within their competence.
January 29, 2023
Agree, Javelin
There are definitely some forces in the senior civil who appear not to have the best interests of the country at heart. With regards to this alleged remainer plot to rejoin the EU or keep as closely aligned as possible – a reader comment in the Telegraph stated yesterday, senior civil servants are putting out positive points in the papers and then making sure to block any actual progress âŠ.the writer likened it to Sir Humphrey on steroids. What we see suggests this could indeed be correct!
January 29, 2023
Yes Sharon. That is correct. Particularly your reminder about Sir Humphrey. It may have been a fictitious program but it portrayed what was actually going on then and is undoubtedly continuing.
January 29, 2023
Sharon – It is ALL by design and as I have said many times before, the real conspiracy theorists believe their government cares about them, the media would never mislead or lie to them and the pharmaceutical industry that makes billions from sickness wants to cure them. The People HAVE to wake up.
January 29, 2023
Correct on both counts.
The senior Civil Service wants rid of the Blu-Green Socialist CONs and is operating in a political manner to boost the chances of getting the Red-Green alternative in 2 years time.
January 29, 2023
Seems so. The Sunak Conservatives just need to deliver:-
Stop illegal immigration.
Cheap reliable non green crap energy and abolish net zero.
Cut taxes and cut the size of the state hugely.
Create a pro-growth environment.
Get the state to deliver some services of any value for a change
But Sunak/Hunt are alas still rowing in totally the wrong direction and rather quickly too.
So Zahawi finally goes he would have been far better off resigning earlier as I suggested surely this was obvious to all but Zahawi himself.
Sunak in his letter to him says:-
“As you leave, you should be extremely proud of your wide-ranging achievements in government over the last five years. In particular, your successful oversight of the COVID-19 vaccine procurement and deployment programme which ensured the United Kingdom was at the forefront of the global response to the coronavirus pandemic. Your role was critical to ensuring our country came through this crisis and saved many lives.”
Not a statement likely to age well. It is surely clear to everyone numerate (that has looked at the statistics) that the whole vaccine programme did net harm in terms of Quality Adjusted Life years lost. Plus it cost countless ÂŁ billions.
Sunak seems to think he can do maths so I assume he has not bothered to look or even to instruct someone honest, competent & numerate to look for him. Still at least JCVI have finally stopped the vaccines for under 50s. To little to late for this dire and conflicted organisation – but better than nothing.
January 29, 2023
The way the JCVI phrased it was sickening with no reference to the real reason for withdrawal – furious back tracking but the guilty will not escape punishment for their crimes. Itâs all been notedâŠ..
Zorro
January 30, 2023
LL, ++++++
January 29, 2023
Donna. Yes that is also true.
January 29, 2023
“It is true the government owes more devalued pounds to the holders of indexed debt.”
Probably correct to include the figures. I could postpone my owing of devalued pounds of tax to HMRC, but I still owe them.
On the other side of the ledger, what about the student loans on the government books which will never be repaid? Or Covid loans? Perhaps as a balancing adjustment we should write those off now because they’ll never be repaid.
January 29, 2023
Javelin, we might perhaps look forward to Sir John asking questions about just how many people are employed by the Cabinet Office and where. People think it a litttle office in Downing St to back up the PM when it is nothing of the sort.
January 29, 2023
Weâll see – but donât hold your breath.
Zorro
January 29, 2023
Javelin. I totally agree.
January 29, 2023
This morning Sophie Ridge interviewed Shevaun Haviland, who previously worked in the Cabinet Office:
https://www.gov.uk/government/people/shevaun-haviland
but has been Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce since April 2019.
She said, just after 22 minutes in here:
https://news.sky.com/video/full-show-sophy-ridge-on-sunday-12798260
“.. we need to fix the Northern Ireland protocol so we can trade more easily with our biggest trading partners ..”
Firstly, from this report issued just before Christmas, in particular pages 8 and 9:
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf
it seems that we have actually been trading quite well with the EU; undoubtedly some smaller companies have found it difficult to adjust to Great Britain being outside the EU Single Market, in the same way as some smaller companies previously found it difficult to adjust to changes in EU rules, but overall exports have been trending up and have exceeded the levels in 2019 before the pandemic and when we were still in the EU.
Secondly there is something very wrong if the ease of trade with the EU for companies in Great Britain really does depend upon the trade arrangements for Northern Ireland, as she implies, given that for example Northern Ireland contributed just ÂŁ5 billion out of a UK total of ÂŁ154 billion of goods exports to the EU in 2021. If the EU is deliberately impeding trade for GB in order to apply pressure over NI then the UK government should go public with a complaint and possibly take it to the WTO. What is the point of a WTO treaty on trade facilitation if the EU is going to deliberately do the opposite?
January 30, 2023
Denis, welcome to reality. The UK agreed in the Withdrawal Agreement to trade barriers between GB and NI. If the UK implements what it agreed, instead of wasting time putting forward a Bill that would violate our international obligations, life would be easier for everyone. You did know what was in the oven ready deal – a seperation between NI and GB- didn’t you?
January 30, 2023
In summary an agreement was made that open trade between GB and NI was going to be toast!
January 29, 2023
Another day, another attempt to distract us from reality. It’s the Bank’s fault! It’s the Treasury’s fault! No sir, it is the Conservative party’s fault. Coming up to 13 years in power, and look at the mess this country is in.
Reply It is not Ministers inventing all these gloomy
Numbers which then produce the wrong answers
January 29, 2023
What can we expect with the two clowns in the top slot.
Neither voted for or wanted just following the WEF agenda.
No doubt our salvation will be to rejoin the EU or so we will be told
That’s the long term plan.
January 29, 2023
Sondheim couldn’t have anticipated how apt this would become in 2022/3.
Isn’t it rich?
Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground
You in mid-air
Send in the clowns
Isn’t it bliss?
Don’t you approve?
One who keeps tearing around
One who can’t move
Where are the clowns?
Send in the clowns
Just when I stopped
Opening doors
Finally knowing the one that I wanted was yours
Making my entrance again with my usual flair
Sure of my lines
Noone is there
Don’t you love a farce?
My fault, I fear
I thought that you’d want what I want
Sorry my dear
But where are the clowns?
Send in the clowns
Don’t bother
They’re here
Isn’t it rich?
Isn’t it queer?
Losing my timing this late
In my career
Where are the clowns?
There ought to be clowns
Well, maybe next year.
Next year, or even the year after?
January 30, 2023
mmmm its universal
January 29, 2023
Absolutely, I don’t think that many of the public just now are that interested in numbers, but rather more in the disgraceful facts as to the actions of some pretty egregious human beings in the Tory party.
January 29, 2023
NLH,
When you get your energy bill or pay for vehicle fuel your brain might better light on the numbers than on the red top behaviour of a few MPs.
January 29, 2023
đ
January 29, 2023
In contrast to your usual comments, many loyal Conservatives will agree with yours today.
January 29, 2023
They are indeed very gloomy numbers are they perhaps related to this:-
âThe evidence is undeniable. There really is a Remainer plan to rejoin the EU by stealth
A Europhile blob is trying its best to return the UK to the European fold. They will likely fail, but a Labour government would rev this upâ
Daniel Hannan – in the Sunday Telegraph today. Not that I ever doubted this was true Starmer made no secret of it.
All rather/very depressing. The Tories have made appalling errors, excess deaths running up to 30 (and no proper investigation (3000 a week), net zero rip off energy lunacy, absurdly high taxes, no prospect of much growth, brain and inward investment drains, sick joke public services and the prospect of an even worse Starmer/Sturgeon/SNP Gov. within two years.
January 29, 2023
Ashley, one can’t help but notice that every Minister targeted by the Fourth Estate in collusion with civil servants is a Brexiteer. It is systematic.
January 30, 2023
You and lots of us might notice, but the sheep prospective voters out there can be easily fooled.
Parties have always relied on it, but now it is almost an art form.
January 29, 2023
30%
January 29, 2023
R to R,
Well said SJR, the next question is why.
January 29, 2023
@Reply – but it is the Conservative Government that is elected to manage these entities.
These almost Looney departments are not needed and are inventions of Governments so as to let themselves of the hook â but that doesnât wash. It is Governments that are elected to do the job, this back sliding has to stop.
January 29, 2023
No, maybe not Sir John but they are accepting them without a murmur.
We need someone who has the strength to put down the Sir Humpheyâs in all departments.
We did not vote for their twaddle!
January 29, 2023
Mr. Redwood, this blame game is wearing a bit thin. The OBR is an invention of a Tory minister – and it was clearly designed to avoid blame when things go wrong. If these various bodies are at fault, itâs YOUR job as the government to sort them out. It wonât wash. I canât ignore bad advice but you can. But you donât. Your government is a miserable excuse for a government and all you seem to do is blame everyone apart from your own ministers.
Reply I was not attributing blame. I provide Analysis. I want. ministers to challenge bad advice.
January 30, 2023
The Ministers are the bosses of those âinventing numbersâ.
January 29, 2023
Good morning.
So what will the outcome be ?
You cannot possibly tax us anymore. The housing market is in rapid decline and the amount of Stamp Tax you will be getting is falling. Thousands of illegals are turning up on our shores and will soon be given there own home whilst hard working Brit’s struggle to keep theirs. And what cuts to government spending has been done ?
Mrs.T inherited a mess. She stopped subsidising loss making industries and cut government spending. She reduced taxes and deregulated. This supposedly conservative government has done the opposite, all to placate those in work in the State sector.
What a sorry mess.
January 29, 2023
They can tax us until we can no longer afford our houses. Then a kind corporation steps in and buys..and we own nothing! But are controlled by rent and rules and APPS!
They can tax us to travel outside our allotted zone to go to work too many times.
They can ditto until we can no longer afford to eat and will beg for bug stew.
( Already, it is said, there is possibly toxic cricket flour in food)
They donât CARE as long as the Agenda is pursued.
If only more had disbelieved the plague narrative.
It is no good any longer saying â They couldnât do that!â
Look at what they have already done.
January 29, 2023
Cuibono. Yes they certainly have already done that and worse.
January 29, 2023
+1
January 29, 2023
As Mrs T. said 40 years ago: ‘One of the great problems of our age is that we are governed by people who care more about feelings than they do about thoughts and ideas’. I think she’d be horrified to see how much truer her words are now even than they were then. Whether it’s Project Fear (of Brexit), fear of the virus, fear of Putin, or fear of climate change, managing the public’s emotions seems to be now the only item in the political toolbox of those who govern us.
January 29, 2023
Richard 11. All that, plus ‘oh those poor kids born in the wrong body’!
January 29, 2023
@Mark B Oh Yes they can, it is an easier option than manageing
January 29, 2023
I am concerned about Javelin’s comment.
When Partygate broke, the photo of Boris Johnson condescendingly visiting the party was redacted so his was the only visible face. Who did this? Why?
Prince Andrew’s fatal photo, too, was photoshopped according to Gisela Maxwell in the Mail.
I am very interested, too, in the sudden collapse of Liz Truss, who we round here know as a very good local MP. Why did it happen so dramatically? Who was really behind it?
We are drifting into conspiracy theory very fast, but does that invalidate Javelin’s comment?
The Civil Service numbers have certainly increased during the time of covid.
January 29, 2023
Just believe the very worst âtheoryâ and you wonât go far wrong.
The term âconspiracy theoryâ was no doubt coined to demonise clear thinkers and put others off the scent.
What is happening now has been predicted, (for whatever reason**
and those predictions widely ridiculed and censored) for many years.
** I mean it may be a strategy to leak intentions gradually.
January 29, 2023
Anselm. No, Javelin’s comment has not been invalidated. On the contrary, there is a conspiracy.
January 29, 2023
Richard Hughes was appointed 2 years ago to chair the OBR by Rishi Sunak, then Chancellor. He was apparently satisfied that Hughes was going to do a good job. But so far all we have seen from the OBR is dubious forecasting, and endlessly pushing the Treasury line. It seems Sunak picked the wrong man. All he can do now is get rid of the OBR altogether, as it doesn’t seem fit for purpose.
January 29, 2023
+100
January 29, 2023
Clough ;
Richard Hughes worked for the far left Resolution Foundation and still has cosy public chats with its CEO.
So it was obvious the position Mr. Hughes would be taking on any issue and I expect this was the reason he was selected to head the OBR by our socialist PM when Chancellor.
January 30, 2023
Also, OR, he has US nationality and spent a long time working for the IMF imposing their globalist agenda on developing countries. In other words, he is well experienced in subordinating national interests to globalist ones. Could that be a clue?
January 30, 2023
I suspect it wasn’t the Chancellor who made the choice but the civil servants as happened with Bailey.
January 29, 2023
Afraid we now live in a World where very little truth is told on a whole range of subjects, be it financial, commercial, political, or anything else.
Communication is now all about the headlines for effect, and then spin to put the best, or worst explanation forward.
Such has been the situation for years for more sensitive information, but under Tony Blair it became an art form in itself, and exploded across a whole range of subject matter, and thus it continues today.
Dodgy figures, smears, deceit, self interest statements, and even downright lies, are now so common place that even those reporting such, sometimes get confused.
Fully aware that in times of real conflict (War) then some statements need to be carefully worded for a number of security reasons, but on a day-day basis, in normal times ?
January 29, 2023
@Berkshire Alan +1
Headlines are to attract, to attract the viewer to what the advertiser that is funding the media is selling. Then again Government is supposed to manage, but doesn’t, it flately refuses.
January 29, 2023
It is clear the blob is now actively working for a Labour govt. Rishi Sunak needs to take back control from the blob.
January 29, 2023
@Richard1 he doesn’t know how to, he is their puppet
January 29, 2023
Well since Sunak is supposed to be such a genius number-cruncher, he should have no problem identifying the deliberate attempt to make the figures look even worse than they are.
And since Hunt wants us to “stop talking the British economy down” he’ll be reading the riot act to the doomsters at the Treasury, OBR and B of E and insisting that they up their game.
Otherwise, what possible use are they?
(Hint: no use whatsoever).
January 29, 2023
@Donna +1
January 29, 2023
Jeremy Huntâs attitude to tax collection is like foodbank supermarket trolleys dumped in local rivers to raise the level.
January 29, 2023
The only tiny conselation is that the Starmer government may be less to the Left than the current regime and may have more control over the civil service.
January 29, 2023
Live old horse and you will get grass!
Come off it Ken!
January 29, 2023
Dream on, they are in the pocked of the state sector unions and will ruin the economy even further for the 80% who do not work for the state.
January 29, 2023
A typically kept-very-quiet, weird âconsultationâ ( like they ever listen) which might be worth filling inâŠjust to say âNOâ loudly.
Digital ID is not my cup of tea!
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/draft-legislation-to-help-more-people-prove-their-identity-online/consultation-on-draft-legislation-to-support-identity-verification
January 29, 2023
@Cuibono As with all these things, they are not there to serve but control. The bad guys still circumvent
January 29, 2023
CB, many thanks for that. The list of attributes that would potentially be made available on such a digital ID is frightening. Which department, what Minister have been preparing such a thing in the background. The end of the consultation is 01/03/2023.
Where are the David Davises roaring in Parliament against this Chinese-type ID card?
January 30, 2023
I wonder whether this project is supported by the same people supporting the Online Safety Bill âŠ
January 29, 2023
Cuibono. This was being talked about by Prof Neil Oliver on GB News last night. He was saying that a digital society would be one where the state could monitor literally everything we do and buy. Not only that but your personal details could be shared with all and sundry. Surely something as big and intrusive as this should be put to the public as a referendum? Not some cheap, take no notice of consultation that most people are unaware of. We will have no control over what we eat, buy or where we travel soon. What are our lives coming to? We will be pawns and it won’t affect the very wealthy who will buy their way out of it all.
January 30, 2023
I like your use of conditional âwould be one where the state could monitor âŠâ It might presently not be the state but Visa, Mastercard are likely to already do that (see S. Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 2019, Profile Books ed.)
âProfâ Neil Oliver might have read the book.
January 29, 2023
Read the questions very, very carefully. They are written so that you can’t possibly disagree with the “benefit” of the State holding a great deal of your personal data and sharing it with any organisations (national and international) they deem appropriate.
The only place you can register your opposition to the whole project is in the free-speech explanation for your response. And I fully expect that will be ignored, just as the objectors to Khan’s expanded ULEZ were ignored.
January 29, 2023
The other day the BBC announced approvingly that something important had been found out by looking at data from people’s loyalty cards and their medical records.
January 29, 2023
They noted that people bought over the counter medicines when they started suffering symptoms but failed to consult their GP until the symptoms had become much worse. It seems to me that if we had a functioning health service such that people did consult their GP and get tested for relevant illnesses it would be far more effective. Perhaps pharmacists should be encouraged to warn people of what their symptoms might imply, rather than the endless quizzing about whether you are taking other medicines and whether you are the one going to be using the medicine you are buying. (Try admitting you are buying paracetamol for your dog, as recommended by your vet!)
I don’t think that monitoring loyalty cards represents a better approach.
January 30, 2023
“I donât think that monitoring loyalty cards represents a better approach.”
Quite so, and they didn’t ask our permission or even notify us of what they were doing. If they can do that, they can do it in other ways. The BBC in its customary authoritarian arrogance was blind to this.
January 30, 2023
people have had to learn that to ‘ consult their GP’ typically ends in frustrated failure.
Many of us would complain ‘what is a GP?’
January 29, 2023
C: Very quiet. My cuppa neither. Heard a discussion on TV only very recently about this. Just how many individuals, most of whom have plenty of other worrying stuff on their plate right now, are going to sit down, find the time to read through the reams of text, think through & compose answers & respond, though I agree, worth filling in. I think this may though prompt that now oft repeated cry of ‘We don’t trust you’ What could possibly go wrong.
January 29, 2023
We should be very careful how the questions are answered here, because the way they are formed assumes we agree with the general idea.
There is not a question that asks if we are in favour of the idea, for example – instead they ask around various aspects of the idea. It’s another con.
January 30, 2023
Our Council does this all the time with its “consultations”. There is no box for dissent.
January 29, 2023
Cuibino
My husband and I waded through that consultation this morning⊠As with most polls and consultations, it is assumed that the person completing the questionnaire agrees with the outcome, but are being consulted on the implementation.
We decided to email our response . We said it was too open to abuse and far over-reached the 2017 initial legislature. This update was already talking about including income and a variety of other things that werenât government departments.
Itâs a facial recognition ID card but digital, that could so easily morph into a social credit tool.
January 29, 2023
The BOE and the Treasury are not permitted to espouse their case, and I suspect that they would not wish to, by going onto the BBC or Channel4 every week. That would open it to scrutiny. They prefer to try to control the agenda by feeding ministers information that supports it. They would need to be economically illiterate to get it wrong as frequently as they do, so I suspect they are running a black ops scheme designed to control the governments policy. It makes me think that, in pushing through the realities of Brexit and illegal immigration, there are much stronger establishment forces out there than we realise. Should there not be a judicial investigation into the gathered forces that ousted Liz Truss who openly flew in the face of establishment interests. Our democracy is under threat from within.
January 29, 2023
A judicial investigation? Even in the 1990s ministers complained it was impossibel to find a grown up judge.
January 29, 2023
Well surprise surprise my fears are confirmed by Dan Hodges in the MOS. Additionally the Sunday Express confirms today that our PM is facing mandarin trouble in wishing to change the law to remove illegal immigrants from the UK.
Time for a Bill outlining the powers of the scribes and confirming the power of ministers, with certain oversights, to dismiss any civil servants with an agenda. Lets have that police enquiry into the Truss coupe asap.
January 29, 2023
As I have said before, why have the people producing these forecasts not been sacked, as Andrew Bailey should have been by now?
But if you have a PM & Chancellor who are ignorant of basic economic common sense, senior Civil Servants & Quango heads sail on, never being held accountable.
The elephant in the room is the cost of government which must be drastically reduced.
Income ÂŁ1.00, expenditure ÂŁ1.10p = misery; Income ÂŁ1.00, expenditure 95p = happiness. It is hardly rocket science but appears completely beyond our PM & Chancellor!
January 29, 2023
It is not beyond them. They know but don’t care. The cost, the penalties, the punishment is born by ordinary people and businesses. The subversive civil service leaders and their serfs run their establishment for their benefit. Our country has been ruined and is bankrupt but those in charge won’t suffer the consequences. Sir John is no help – he largely ignores everything said on his pages.
Reply You are always critical and often as now on wrong grounds. I think carefully about what is said here.
January 29, 2023
I read that Sunak’s purported plan to ban illegal entrants from claiming asylum are to face ‘fierce opposition’ from the civil service. Can you explain why these ‘servants’ are not being summarily dismissed? It is not the job of civil servants to make policy, they have a vote like the rest of us and are even free to stand for election on a platform of their choice.
It is legitimate for them to warn of pitfalls or even provide a bit of inertia to inhibit wild swings of policy. The issue this time is supposedly the 1951 Refugee Convention, but it is a long time since 1951 and there are a number of old laws that are no longer fit for purpose. When this Convention was framed it cannot have envisaged the cynical abuse of the Laws of the Sea to deliberately place yourself at risk so others are obliged to ‘rescue’ you, the use of asylum claims and lawfaring from those with no credible case in order to game the system, or the destruction of means of identification in order to pretend membership of some prioritised faction.
January 29, 2023
âIn the long run up to the March budget we have had a stream of bad numbers from the Treasury and Bank and a leak of a bad forecast from the OBR.â
I no longer believe the figures from these organisations, theyâre simply producing the figures that those in control want them to be, just as we saw with SAGE and we also see with the IPCC âSummary for Policy Makersâ (quite different to the actual scientific evidence).
As the joke goes, when the CEO asks his chief accountant what is 2+2, the reply is âwhat do you want to make it this year?â Unfortunately this is now also true for climate.
January 29, 2023
A most unfunny number is that there were more excess deaths in the UK for the week ending 13th January 2023 than the total death toll in the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York. Week after week for months now there have been people of all age groups losing their lives not from Covid, but other reasons. It’s not limited to the UK either. I cannot fathom why this isn’t top of the agenda for all involved in our governance. And no explanation from anyone except your erstwhile colleague Andrew Bridgen. Please, Sir John, insist on this matter being fully admitted and analysed by the government.
January 29, 2023
what a bizarre comparison…make it something with a reasonable relationship!
January 29, 2023
The comparison is between terrible tragic losses of life, one that occupied all of our consciousness for years afterwards, the other which doesn’t even make an inside page of any newspaper even though the numbers are greater and growing. I don’t think the word “reasonable” has any connection with this situation!
January 29, 2023
Unlikely as he didnât bother attending the relevant debateâŠ..
Zorro
January 29, 2023
John, donât your government of majority have the absolute right to charge the BoE with not selling at a loss? Why doesnât your government buy the lower cost bonds off the BoE then sell them when they pick up at a profit. You can buy out the RBS and other failures, Railways and the likes when it suits.
The BoE and civil servants in the statistics department are not more powerful than the Chancellor and Treasury or is they? Like Gary Megson is right you are not in opposition you are in power. Surely you are not the only CONSERVATIVE who thinks selling the bonds at a loss after announcing he was willing to sell at a loss (stupid) is a mistake you need to stop.
January 29, 2023
I am afraid that Javelin and agricola are both right. It was obvious that establishment interests were determined to undermine Liz Truss, and Bailey didn’t even attempt to do it surreptitiously. Although she made some significant mistakes, It was a coup in all but name.
I suspect that the establsihment will have to do a lot more undermining to prevent a small Conservative majority in 2024/25. Starmer’s lack of policies and his Woke agenda will not come over well in the pressure cooker that is an election campaign. Then there is the issue of a Labour/Lib-Dim/SNP coalition which English voters will not vote for.
January 29, 2023
Governments created the OBR and Governments can disband the OBR
You have a 70’ish majority so get on with reform of the Treasury, BoE & OBR
âMatthew 5:29-3029 And if thy right eye offend thee, pluck it outâ
January 29, 2023
The stream of bad operators in HM Treasury caused the stream of bad numbers. It resulted in the rotting stench of stagnant incompetence that lingers around them. We need fresh clean sensible MPs who can drain the swamp, flush out the bad ones and restore our finance to flow clear and free of useless debris.
January 29, 2023
Sir John
The more that we look at what is being said about how the Country is run, managed and administered. The overriding principle being arrived at is that it is not our elected forum, the House of Commons, the elected Government that have anything to do with anything. So why do they exist?
Then that poses the question on why is the Tax Payer being forced to fund these wayward institutions, yet can have no say in what their demands create from us and how they reward themselves with our money.
There is a real disconnect in the way us âplebsâ interpret democracy and how the establishment wants democracy to be run.
January 29, 2023
Deliberate obfuscation…!
By allegedly working to getting the economy running again, by using invalid and bad estimates, our Chancellor is seemingly trying to do the impossible – On the other hand, by the establishment manipulating the data to look this bad the Chancellor can’t lose, for when the economy sinks further he will have plenty of excuses.
Once again we are being deceived over what is real – Something HMG have gotten very good at over the last few years.
January 29, 2023
Somehow we have missed a Caeusceau moment in time and now forever saddled with our very own distinctive medieval style political arrangement – ‘first past the post’- all with an honours system thrown in to ensure silence – the stuff of Kings – never to be shaken off – and now we’re going to have the repeat spectacle of another coronation that will cost the country millions and millions while at the same time the food banks abound – there’s no end to it it seem’s
January 29, 2023
Hunt is the wrong person as Chancellor . His background is not suited to the job and he is now desperate in his efforts to re-establish his persona . His insecurity shows in his reliance of the information he is fed by the OBR and not by the Treasury staff he is responsible for . We are not the only country suffering from the state of the world economy ; it will take a strong and united effort by the significant economies to get things back to a stable condition .
January 29, 2023
All this proves to be very confusing for everyone, I suspect. Which is why the whole system needs a complete overhaul as do the Whitehall and Westminster government ‘machines’. But who will have the bottle to order it?
January 29, 2023
Indexed debt still has to be paid and needs to be accrued so is part of a deficit.
If they did not show this it would be off valance sheet financing such as student debt which eventuslly has to have bonds issued to pay for.
Spending more than you earn costs dear.
January 29, 2023
Or rather is it s case of do numbers paint a funny picture and constrain a bad Chancellor?
January 29, 2023
“77th Brigade to spy”
Is controlled by Security Commissioners? (IJ PN-J) with their barracks near Guildford?
True or not; They have been working to keep alignment, and planning Rejoining.
Whispers are they have done a deal with Starmer?
Federate the HoL, and allow the parts to rejoin the full EU at will! SNP, SF, Labour Wales will want it ASAP.
The way things are going, in the next two years, if there is not a change in the Conservative Party, Labour wil have their own majority!
I think only Liz Truss could unit the Conservative Party, or Sunak will need to implement change ASAP.
More of the same, or BJ back, has no chance!
Regards,
RDM.
January 29, 2023
When Conservative M.P.s voted for Rishi Sunak to be Prime Minister they not only voted for someone without the ability to win a competitive election but also for the Civil Service to run the country.
Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are Conservatives at heart (unlike some allegedly ‘Conservative’ M.P.s) and indeed pro-business but that is just theoretical. They are not competent enough to run the country (which they are tacitly acknowledging by not pressing forward with business growth policies they seem to want). Look at Sunak’s (I suppose the Treasury’s) Covid bounceback loans which were an invitation to fraud as well as being excessive. Jeremy Hunt can’t even get his dream (dreaming of release from Treasury mandarins’ shackles) of helping businesses right – he emphasised business tax costs before making a penny profit when nobody sets out in business to fail (though they may fear failure and most do fail) instead of rewarding hoped for success with lower Corporation Tax and abolishing the highest band of Income Tax. Furthermore if his dream measures are going to generate growth it is illogical to wait.
Incidentally which ‘brain box’ decided the Cabinet were in urgent need of advice on how to win a General Election from William Hague who has the worst record of any Conservative Leader who has fought a General Election (his 2001 drubbing) in 150 years or more?
The fact is as this Prime Minister and Cabinet are incapable of running the government, they (Suella Braverman apart) allow the Civil Service (incompetent, unworldly and left biased though senior civil servants generally are) to do it for them.
January 29, 2023
The Treasury has been engaged in accruals-based accounting with regard to their bond portfolio.
There have been for some time discussions about amortising government ‘investment’ expenditure
over the lifetime of an ‘asset’. It would be interesting to see realistic accruals-based accounting for
HS2; what would the Liabilities column look like for that white elephant?
January 29, 2023
Iâm not alarmed by the December borrowing figures. Iâm retired and donât pay income tax or NI. Iâm not worried about the future for my sons. They are planning to move abroad. Thatâs two more higher rate taxpayers leaving the sinking ship. In a few years this countryâs population will be asylum seekers. Anyone with skills and earning capacity will be somewhere sunnier.
January 29, 2023
Now Jake Berry tells Gloria de Piero that when he went to see Hunt at the Treasury, mid coup, he was told by two civil servants for a quarter of an hour why his party couldn’t have a leadership election [to replace the PM they’d just toppled.] He told them it was none of their business as civil servants how a party chose its leader, and proceeded to have the conversation with Hunt. A rare glimpse of the state of affairs we all know about.
January 29, 2023
back to the topic which keeps on giving…
Senior officials claim the Prime Minister wants to tear up the rule book in a bid to end the tide of people crossing the Channel in small boats. He is driving ahead with new laws that would completely remove the right to asylum here for all illegal entrants.But furious Whitehall insiders have vowed to torpedo the plan, claiming it “drives a coach and horses” through the 1951 Refugee Convention. And last night the Home Office was understood to be urgently considering legal advice.
The clash between Downing Street and Home Office mandarins comes after Mr Sunak staked his reputation on tackling the Channel crisis which saw 45,756 landing illegally last year.
The PM and Home Secretary Suella Braverman are expected to announce new legislation in the next few weeks to ensure migrants are “detained and swiftly removed” – and also unable to exploit the asylum system.
But a highly placed source has made it clear they will face intense internal opposition from Home Office staff.
PM vs Senior Civil Servants?
January 29, 2023
And from Parliament too.
January 30, 2023
MT – As EU alignment in all things seems to be the goal, tell the Home Office staff, civil servants & revolting MPs that their friends & partners in the EU are also about to attempt a clamp down and create much tougher policies in order to reduce the numbers of returns / deportations to third countries & considering restrictions on visas for those countries not in agreement to accepting their own citizens.
January 30, 2023
In the summer leadership contest which he lost, the Usurper floated the idea of restricting visas for countries which wouldn’t take back their deported subjects/citizens. I thought he was on to something there but didn’t expect anyone to do it.
January 29, 2023
The data below is for the 24-hour period 00:00 to 23:59 28 January 2023.
Number of migrants detected in small boats: 26
Number of boats detected: 1
January 30, 2023
Sunday 29 Jan 2023: 189 arrivals / 5 boats. Also media reported French authorities / coastguard rescued 83 people with 54 in 1 boat & 29 in another – all taken to the port of Calais ( after difficulties off the coast of Gravelines )
January 30, 2023
MT – As EU alignment in all things seems to be the goal, tell the Home Office staff, civil servants & revolting MPs that their friends & partners in the EU are also about to attempt a clamp down and create much tougher policies in order to reduce the numbers of returns / deportations to third countries & considering restrictions on visas for those countries not in agreement to accepting their own citizens.