Some regulars to this site and a few of my constituents are raising the issue of excess deaths. Over the last year according to official statistics these have been higher than normal. Some want to know if the covid vaccines have anything to do with this. The NHS medical establishment makes clear they do not think so and continue to recommend the vaccines as safe.
The latest excess death figures show above normal levels of death from cardiovascular causes, and sharply higher from liver disease. The overall excess death numbers are well below the covid peak prior to general vaccination.
It would be helpful if the NHS could provide a medical explanation of the trend in excess deaths over the last year, with any recommendations they might have to bring it back down. Meanwhile others without medical training will speculate, with worries about delays and missing treatments amongst the issues they raise.
May 22, 2023
Good morning.
But is there enough information to determine the cause(s) ? And what to do if there is a link between the vaccines and excess deaths.
I am not surprised that there would be excess deaths, not because of CV19 and any treatment but, due to people not receiving timely treatment for other illnesses.
People it seemed, accepted the government Lockdowns to save the NHS but, forgot to remember that the NHS is there to save those very same people. A chilling irony.
May 22, 2023
So what is the reason for holding this back ?
No names. No links. On topic. No longer than anyone else.
Can I please ask for an explanation.
May 22, 2023
Good Morning,
Thank you Sir J., a measured step into this debate.
May I suggest, using official statistics, a formal question in the House to the Health Minister? Has the government noted the excess deaths, does it have any investigation ongoing as to cause(es)? Has it reviewed reputable home and foreign data published on the issue?
May 22, 2023
A small toe dipped in the water!
May 22, 2023
I believe that the wheels are coming off the whole shebang.
Much hidden stuff rising to the top.
Discussions and questions in EU Parliament according to YouTube.
None in oursâŠthey get up and leave!
May 22, 2023
It’s good that Sir John is willing to have a debate. I do not know if the vaccine has caused the spike in excess deaths. It has certainly led to *some* deaths, as even the government has acknowledged, but how many is open to question. Sir John refers to the opinion of the “NHS medical establishment”, and of course they should be listened to, but so should others with different views, as history shows that the concensus has been wrong in the past and groupthink needs to be challenged to test its soundness. Science works by challenging and testing opinions, not by shutting down debate. What I think is despicable is the way the government is not willing to discuss this, and kicked Andrew Bridgen out of the party for seeking to do so. This government does NOT believe in free speech, or honest debate. Just one more reason to kick them out of office.
May 22, 2023
I would suggest that the UK probably has the same approach as Australia to monitoring and investigation deaths that might be related to vaccination. In Australia there have been only 14 deaths likely to be related to vaccines out of nearly 67 million vaccinations, and none in 2023. That is probably also representative of the UK.
May 22, 2023
BP. I agree. The Andrew Bridgen episode was truly disgusting. He was quoting a Jewish person of high esteem. They were not his own words. Brilliant MP.
May 22, 2023
I think that it’s more likely that the loss of all that professional clinical expertise thanks to leaving the European Union – I won’t use that squalid little portmanteau word – and the NHS industrial disputes fomented by the Tories are rather more to do with this than any vaccine.
The stats and analysis by different groups of effects of the last are all freely and widely available. They are in general agreement and do not explain the figures.
May 23, 2023
Iâm more interested in statistics than in what anyone âthinksâ.
May 24, 2023
“May I suggest, using official statistics, a formal question in the House to the Health Minister?”
May I suggest Redwood attends the next debate requested by Andrew Bridgen. Because, like every other MP in Parliament, he couldn’t be bothered to attend the last one!
By the way, in a reply to a recent post on the topic, John Redwood said, he had not received any questions or concerns from his constituents about this issue.
JR: “and a few of my constituents are raising the issue of excess deaths”
Difficult to reconcile those two statements.
But now, we read that his constituents have raised this issue with him. Huh!
Reply Yes recent enquiries.
May 22, 2023
Maintaining a healthy lifestyle helps prevent death occurring earlier. Each person chooses whether and how to achieve that within the information available and circumstances they assess. Opinions vary, yet many live to excess on smoking, drinking and other hazards.
May 22, 2023
Keeping to a normal weight has huge advantages for all of the body joints, cardio vascular, metabolic⊠do not drink too much alcohol, gentle regular exercise like walking, take vitamin D, do not smoke and do not take the Covid vaccines would be my approach. Alas I did have two Astra Z. vaccines without any ill effects so far – thank goodness.
May 22, 2023
Millions really suffered with a sore upper arm for a few hours….
May 23, 2023
I caught Covid shortly after taking the AZ second vaccine! So not so effective in my case!
May 22, 2023
And bad diets. Indeed. When looking at the reasons for excess deaths, I’m sure lifestyle is a far more significant factor than the availability of healthcare.
May 22, 2023
and from all the ingredients like preservatives in much of our food.
May 22, 2023
That would imply an increase in the numbers following a bad lifestyle in order to create excess deaths. It might be the case that reduced living standards result in a worse lifestyle. For example inadequate heating at home is definitely linked to excess deaths, making recovery from any illness more difficult.
May 22, 2023
The term ‘excess deaths’ is political and seeks to excuse possible criminal behaviour. A deeply offensive term but then we live in a deeply offensive and criminal times
May 22, 2023
The answer to this conundrum likely has nothing to do with Covid or the vaccines. If there are actually any excess deaths – and they may just be a statistical blip – it is much more plausible that the vast amount of alcohol consumed by those on furlough, with time on their hands during the pandemic, is the cause of any liver damage.
May 22, 2023
Government data shows there ARE excess deaths, running between 12% – 20%. It isn’t a statistical blip since the same thing is happening in Australia, NZ, Canada, America and the EU (all the highly jabbed countries/areas).
ALL the Governments are refusing to investigate the cause/s. It’s almost like they’re operating a CONsensus on the matter.
May 22, 2023
The TGA in Australia investighates every death that might be related to vaccines. The grand total is 14 out of 67 million vaccinations.
The high excess deaths accumulated in 2022 have been analysed by the Actuaries Instituteâs COVID-19 Mortality Working Group. In summary it’s called living with Covid, a new cause of death that did not exist before the pandemic. It reports:
Total excess mortality for the first 11 months of 2022 is 11% (+17,900 deaths).
Our expectation is that excess mortality for the full year 2022 will be 12% i.e. there were nearly 20,000 more deaths in 2022 than would have been expected if the pandemic had not happened.
Just over half of the expected excess mortality for 2022 is due to deaths from COVID-19 (+10,300 deaths), with another +2,900 where COVID-19 was a contributing factor, and the remaining excess of +6,600 with no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.
While most of the excess deaths are in older age groups (i.e. 65+ years), excess mortality is a significant percentage in all age groups in 2022.
Most states and territories have had broadly similar levels of excess mortality in 2022, but the delayed re-opening of WAâs borders is reflected in a delayed uplift in mortality.
May 23, 2023
How was death ‘from’ Covid assessed in this study? A FOI request in Britain some months ago revealed that of the 175,000 ‘Covid deaths’ claimed at that point, 17,500 had only Covid on the death certificate. So 90% of them could have been deaths from the one or more serious other medical conditions also featuring on the certificate. The ‘from Covid’ number in WA, with a much smaller population than us, looks suspiciously large.
May 24, 2023
Many deaths from Covid could have had other contributing causes. Sometimes it is sometimes difficult to side out of several potential causes of death which is primary and which secondary. The point is that even those who died with Covid would probably be alive the next day had they not had Covid. To argue they would have died within with a few months anyway is callous, unethical and plain illogical. Covid caused their premature death. If I get run over by a bus but a month before was given only months to live because of terminal cancer, what is the cause of death? With or from cancer?
The brother of a friend of mine got Covid and when he was admitted to hospital he was told had he delayed going to hospital another day he would probably have died. He was 28 and obese. What would have been his cause of death, covid or obesity? Without Covid his life expectancy would have been many, many years even with obesity.
May 22, 2023
Thank you, Donna! I couldnât have put it better myself!
In Australia, of the 25 million population, approx 1 million people got Covid but nearly everyone got vaccinated- and their excess deaths are running at about 13%.
My daughter lives there and she said it was difficult to go anywhere unless you were jabbed!
May 24, 2023
Excess deaths in Australia were 12% in 2022. The third leading cause of death in Australia in 2022 wass Covid. Covid deaths are predominantly among the unvaccinated or patrtially vaccinated. There have been no deaths at all from Coronavirus vaccines in 2023 and only 14 out of nearly 67 million vaccinations before that where the cause was probably vacciination. The contribution of vaccination related deaths (14 in total 2021 and 2022) is negligible. Report of the Actuaries Institute workling group April 2023:
“While deaths from COVID-19 accounted for over half the excess deaths in 2022, another 2,900 deaths
had the virus listed as a contributing cause. Of the remaining 7,000 excess deaths, COVID-19 was not
listed as a factor on the death certificate but could possibly have played a role in mortality risk,
particularly for people with heart disease, stroke, dementia, and diabetes.
“The Working Group found that ischaemic heart disease and dementia retained their places as the
top two leading causes of death, claiming 18,600 and 17,300 Australian lives respectively last year. COVID-19 overtook cerebrovascular disease (which includes stroke, aneurysms, and blocked
arteries) to be ranked third.”
I suggest you forward these facts to your daughter who clearly is misinformed.
May 24, 2023
Another analysis your daughter should read to better inform herself is here:
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release
May 22, 2023
Correct. See EuroMOMO which exists for the sole pupose of measuring and conmpating excess deaths by country. Excluding the pandemic period XS deaths are norma throughout Europe including UK.
May 22, 2023
Oh come on, please get real. What about all the heart and blood clot issues that come on a few days after the vaccines. What about all the post-mortem/autopsy results and analysis that has been done on the victims and their organs worldwide. The pathologist can surely distinguish the difference between alcohol and viral damage.
The deaths are not just in countries that had lockdowns anyway.
May 22, 2023
Gabe. A surgeon friends know said after seeing post mortem results he and his family are having no more Covid vaccinations and that goes for his GP too.
May 22, 2023
It was nice to see that the issue of excess deaths has been raised at the International Covid Summit III in the European Parliament. Recordings of the summit have been uploaded to YouTube, they run for three hours but are worth watching, very illuminating.
Noticeably no attempt has been made to ascertain whether excess deaths have affected the unvacinated population.
May 22, 2023
What do you suggest is the cause(s) then. The problem is fairly worldwide in all vaccinated countries and times well with the vaccine roll out by age. I cannot think of any other likely explanations for this can you? Look at the figure from Canada, Australia, NZ, UK, Ireland…
May 22, 2023
All deaths in Australia that are reported to be associated with vaccination are investigated. The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) closely reviews all deaths reported in the days and weeks after COVID-19 vaccination. Since the beginning of the vaccine rollout to 14 May 2023, nearly 67 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been given in Australia. The TGA has identified 14 reports where the cause of death was linked to vaccination from 985 reports received and reviewed. There have been no new vaccine-related deaths identified since 2022.
The 14 deaths likely to be related to vaccination occurred in people aged 21 – 81 years old. There have been no deaths in children or adolescents determined to be linked to COVID-19 vaccination.
May 22, 2023
+1
May 22, 2023
SG Excess mortality isn’t a conundrum, it’s a fact that you can verify for yourself from official data if you took the trouble. It’s been ongoing since mid-2021. The point of Sir John’s piece, I take it, is that there needs to be a proper investigation, otherwise we just get people speculating, e.g. your surmise that it’s due to alcohol consumption.
May 22, 2023
Do you not consider that COVID especially in its long term damage may well be responsible for higher death rates than expected? Even people who had the jabs could catch it and complain of various issues not really a problem prior to COVID.
Suicides can easily be explained away when living under the last 3 Governments.
Abandon hope all ye who live here!
May 23, 2023
A cold virus does not normally cause long term damage, any more than you’ve (hopefuly not) suffered long term damage, MT, every time you caught the flu.
May 22, 2023
I can see no sign of an increase in alcohol consumption in the duty statistics form HMRC: in fact, if anything a reduction, as you might expect given cost of living pressures.
May 22, 2023
This so-called âstatistical blipâ has happened in countries around the world where the vaccine was used so you canât use the NHS or lockdown as an excuse.
Rather than speculate we need to do some investigation into the reason not to have a witch-hunt against the few MPs who dare to raise the issue.
With so many elderly supposedly dying from covid the five-year average should have dropped â it hasnât.
May 22, 2023
It certainly is far, far more worrying than a statistical blip – if you understand stats and probability the change of it being a statistical blip is probably less than 1 in 10^100.
May 23, 2023
Sakara’s words, not mine. I’ve listened to the insurance statisticians and am very worried.
May 22, 2023
Back in February the ONS announced a project (supposed to report any time now) to look at alternative methodologies for calculating excess deaths, recognising that there are actually some differences of definition: if you start with normal expected deaths, but then impose an event that creates excess deaths (a flu wave, cold weather etc.) you can carry on measuring what the excess is against the previous projection. This appears to be what Euromomo do which probably understates excess deaths in periods following a period of abnormally high deaths where fewer deaths might be expected: their website does contain some other useful breakdowns by age cohort and geography that may reveal spread of contagion, or correlation with weather, or a more systemic pattern.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
You are right that excess deaths usually cull populations that are more elderly preferentially, at least in Europe – although spread of childhoold disease is more prevalent elsewhere, and used to be important in the past. Reduced populations of those more likely to die “normally” should result in lower deaths following a period of excess deaths. This chart from the ONS shows that in the first covid wave there were significant numbers of non-covid excess deaths because the NHS shut down for treating survivable conditions
https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc2583/fig1/index.html
It also illustrates the perils of comparing against 5 year average historic deaths after a pandemic wave, and to my eye shows the ongoing excess deaths which this week the ONS assesses at 4.9%. Hopefully their work will give us a more rational basis for measuring the problem. Much more data are needed to understand causes: there has been too much focus on the divide with covid or not, now largely irrelevant.
May 24, 2023
EuroMOMO’s methodology is explained here:
https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/
For its recent weekly estimates showing the levels of excess deaths it has excluded data from the pandemic years. But it warns that expecially when accumulated estimates are not reliable. That warning would apply to other methodologies too. EuroMOMO implies from its example that the bias incrfease, not decreases, the estimate:
“An example is number of deaths in the age group 0-14 years, where the EuroMOMO countries in the years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic experienced a decrease in mortality. The model extends this declining baseline mortality in a linear fashion. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a mean of 361 deaths per week in this age group. In week 40, 2022, there is approximately 8.5% bias due to this linear trend meaning that the expected number of deaths (the baseline) is predicted to be 29 deaths lower than in week 1, 2020. This means that even though the number of reported weekly deaths is equal in week 40, 2022 and week 1, 2020, the lower baseline in week 40, 2022 means that there will be 29 deaths higher excess mortality in this week. “
May 22, 2023
That hypothesis can be tested by examining the trend in alcohol sales during the so-called ‘pandemic’. I look forward to such a study.
One problem with measuring ‘excess deaths’ is that the baseline is becoming corrupted. It would be best to examine age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 in a particular year and compare that figure to average age-adjusted deaths for the period 2015-19, i.e. before the controversial events occurred (‘COVID’ followed by the ‘COVID vaccine’.)
I question whether age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 were in fact higher in 2020 than 2021 or 2022. Maybe JR should re-check this. There’s at least one ex-government scientist who occasionally writes articles on the Daily Sceptic website. Maybe s/he or other similar people could help JR in seeking to extract the truth from the lies, damned lies and statistics. Good luck.
May 22, 2023
Yes, I agree cause of death needs investigating too.
It may be just that the post-war baby boomers are getting to their natural expiry dates; however, if it is younger people with strokes and heart problems at much higher rates than are expected, it needs investigation.
May 22, 2023
I’ve just been told a lady who works at our accountant’s had an aneurysm in her early 50s last weekend and died today. Healthy weight. That’s three people I know of who have had aneurysms this past year.
May 22, 2023
When your medical system that you, your parents and grandparents paid into during entire working lives announces a health emergency and then CLOSES ITS DOORS to youâŠ( oh but not to others)
You stop trusting it in any way shape or form.
BTW..one theory regarding plastic particles in the lungs is that MASKS have caused them!
May 22, 2023
Masks will certainly have put materials in the lungs how could they not do. Fortunately I hardly ever wore them just one or twice in the odd supermarket – so as not to frighten the old ladies.
May 22, 2023
The extremely sick and dying just canât get to the telephone before 8am, only to be put on hold for 30mins to be told that the GP is booked up for the day âŠtry again tomorrow âŠbefore 8am
May 22, 2023
glen, if you are extremely sick and can’t get through to your gp surgery you can call NHS 111. If you feel like you’re dying call 999 and ask for an ambulance or get someone close to you to do that. My aunt called an ambulance the first time in her life, it arrived in 10 minutes, she’d had a stroke. You can’t mess around.
The NHS GP surgeries have been told they can’t tell people to call back tomorrow any longer, they have to offer you an alternative timely appointment.
May 22, 2023
None of that helps you book a GP appointment, with your own doctor
May 23, 2023
I truly believe people need to make formal complaints to their surgery; if you don’t, they believe they are doing a good job and meeting all patient requests. Don’t you have online appointments at your surgery or e-mail appointments if phones are engaged? Many people try getting through only between 8 and 8:45, but often if you try later, you can get through, and if you have an emergency, they will find a way to fit you in, even if that is a phone call assessment at first or a senior nurse appointment to take all your vitals.
We are told they now have to offer you an alternative not just tell you to call again.
May 22, 2023
The original study of plastic particles into lungs of cancer patients is from 1998.
⊠from Chrarybdis to Scylla ⊠or more likely to plain silly.
May 22, 2023
Plenty of studies since then.
If a study on particles in the lungs had been done in 1698 ( or indeed in Ancient Greece) it would be no less of a warning to not swathe oneâs mouth and nose in fibres than a study done yesterday.
Why did the NHS aka govt. not heed the study of 1998?
May 22, 2023
Planning to join the Reclaim Party Sir John? You might be getting a call from the Whips later today asking what it is you want in order to shut up.
The Government and the Regulators have made it perfectly clear they are adopting Nelson’s strategy over excess deaths. And so are the Governments in Australia, NZ, Canada, America …..although, surprisingly, some MEPs are doing a pretty good job over challenging the EU Kommissars.
May 22, 2023
A clear lesson from the 1919 pandemic that ought to have been enduring was to tell the people the plain truth. Doubts that lesson was applied in the recent past mean the worth of “The NHS medical establishment makes clear..” is devalued from what it should be.
May 22, 2023
Science is a continual line of corrected mistakes.
Thalidomide was just one.
Erroneous scientists realise only after their mistakes show them.
May 22, 2023
Is Rishi Sunak’s government quietly retreating from the Net Zero lunacy asked Frazer Nelson in the Spectator. He seems to thinks so.
So perhaps Sunak is finally moving to get one thing slightly more right than Cameron, May and Boris/Carrie did.
The costs of Net Zero are massive and the benefit are non existent indeed actually negative.
May 22, 2023
Gabe & Frazer Nelson :
Dream on. Mr. Sunak cancelled his promise on fracking and donât forget that at COP26 when Chancellor he promised to rewire the entire global financial system for Net Zero.
With money for CCUS and renewables instead of orders for RR SMRs you can be certain, like his predecessors, he wants to destroy our countryâs wealth and lead us into a life of rationed energy, food, travel heating and healthcare with dependence on coal powered China for our wind turbines and solar panels and much else.
May 22, 2023
Another diversion.
All meds have side effectsâŠsome disastrous. Thalidomide? That swine flu jab? Polio in Africa?, HPVâŠ.?? Who would trust those seeking profit from illness?
The real issue is what the govt. did to us.
FOR NO GOOD REASONâŠ
Other than its desire/need/terror to obey lockstep.
Excess deaths are now apparently a concern worldwide.
May 22, 2023
A thief steals a ladyâs purse. She canât buy a ticket, misses her train and avoids a fatal crash. If a kind man paid her fare, would he have caused her death, whereas the thief saved her life?
Maybe Covid vaccine is 100% safe, but EVERY action has knock-on effects. Lockdown affected millions of individuals, resulting in many changes from normal behaviour.
Thousands of such changes could have led in similar ways toward excessive deaths. Maybe the vaccine was a cause, yet death was not the intent of the kind persons who created it.
May 22, 2023
No vaccine is ever 100% safe, but safer than catching Covid especially if the patient is in poor health.
May 22, 2023
No the intent was obviously profit.
May 22, 2023
The numbers of deaths attributable solely or for the most part to side effects of vaccines are known or available from the data. What those blaming XS deaths on vaccines never do is disaggregate the figures. It is simpler just to blame vaccines.
Two very obvious explanations for the rise in XS deaths that did occur are two that were predicted during the pandemic: the non-pharmaceutical interventions made in order to protect against coronavirus also protect against other viruses particularly those that affect the respiratory system. Clearly those people are now vulnerable and may have died during lockdowns without that protection.
Secondly when restrictions are lifted there will be a rise in deaths from or with Covid. That showed very clearly in late 2021. So cumulative excess deaths from the offical end of the pandemic will show an increase.
Both the above effects are by now in the past.
If you measure XS deaths by comparison with a five year moving average it is obvious that non-Covid reductions due to lockdowns would depress the baseline and therefore produce an increase in XS deaths when these NPIs and consequent reductions are no longer present.
Likewise because of reduced movement by road, rail and air, and reduced industrial activity, there would have been a reduction during the lockdown periods of deaths from road and rail traffic, industrial accidents etc..
XS deaths are highly variable in the normal course of events. The best measures of excess deaths are those produce by EuroMOMO, a group of 30 partners in 27 countries or regions of countries. In its most recent bulletin (Week 19, 2023) it states that extreme caution is required as the estimates of XS deaths should not be considered reliable. EuroMOMO has removed the pandemic period from the baseline data. Its measures show that XS deaths in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland are within the normal range, as they are throughout Western Europe.
High excess deaths is a red herring and scare story put out by anti-vaxers. They are also anti-lockdown. Anti-both on principle regardless of factual evidence.
May 22, 2023
Speculation not helped, when some health specialists (Doctors, Consultants) within the NHS actually suggest to patients who are now suffering from heart problems, that Covid is/was either the cause or a contributory factor.
Certainly we have a family member, and a couple of friends who have been advised that this is the case.
Whatever the reason, further investigation is needed as heart failure cases (not death) appears to be increasing substantially at our local hospital.
May 22, 2023
SJR: The MHRA has yet to publish a thorough analysis of its Yellow Card data on reported Covid injection adverse effects. When it has, the findings can then surely be compared with the excess deaths data. It seems strange this is taking so long, and as you say the delay is giving rise to speculation.
May 22, 2023
âThe MHRA has yet to publish âŠâ What do you make of the reports published by gov.uk on the following sites:
yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk
info.mhra.gov.uk
Or the series of
âCoronavirus vaccine: Summary of Yellow Card reportingâ.
Have you read all this material. If yes, what should be the thorough analysis that would conform to your wishes?
May 23, 2023
It fails to address the point that the MHRA, as a regulatory agency, is there for. What frequency of e.g. myocarditis per million doses is the trigger for the product to be withdrawn? Without this information, the reader of what the MHRA presents as an ‘analysis’ is unable to agree with the claim that the vaccines are safe.
May 23, 2023
The independent news channel ‘UK Column’ conducted its own very thorough-looking analysis of MHRA-reported adverse effects up to Sept. 2022, and found 2,272 deaths at that point reported to the Yellow Card scheme. It’s recognised that medical product adverse effects are massively under-reported, so the true figure might be ten times that. The ‘UK Column’ is however known to be very hostile to the government’s Covid policies, so I would want a second study with the same degree of exhaustive analysis, to see if it came to the same result. Nothing like this is available on any of the government sites you mention, Hefner. In particular, the MHRA webpage called ‘analysis’ is a joke, with nothing like a proper analysis of the figures on view.
The basic problem is that the MHRA is the body that approved the Covid vaccines, and what’s at issue is whether its judgment was sound. Unless you think government bodies should mark their own homework, we need to have an independent take on the situation. If only our British Parliamentary Committees displayed the same fearless investigative spirit as their US Congressional counterparts!
May 22, 2023
Yellow Card data represents voluntary reports of suspected side effects. Excess death data is reported by ONS and can be stratified by age ranges, vaccination status, etc.
MHRA data will not be as informative or unbiased as ONS findings.
May 22, 2023
The NHS continues to maintain that the vaccines are not the cause and side effects are very rare whereas the Yellow Card system and personal and media experience shows exactly the opposite. I have an increasing number of friends and family I have lost in unexpected and sudden circumstances – from heart attacks and strokes especially – and where I personally believe the vaccine was at least a contributor. All denied of course. And I have lost count of those who have had nasty after effects from the vaccines. On the other hand I still know nobody who has died of covid – quite a lot who claim they have had covid but only because they have tested positive on an unreliable test. I also know lots of people who have not had the vaccinations who have never had covid.
Can we please have some honesty. The things are neither safe nor effective.
May 22, 2023
Anxiety caused by Covid and lack of normal movement and contacts. The govt could not have done anything else at he time. Covid was a wicked problem not a tame one.
May 22, 2023
Frances, Covid was a few very wicked *people*… and a lot of very tame people.
May 22, 2023
This healthy 63-year old is sufficiently alarmed by the reports to have decided not to have any more ‘boosters’. The decision by the zealotment to push the vaccine into kids who were at no risk from COVID looks even more stupid now than it did then.
May 22, 2023
Me too Sea Warrior. I’m 66 and am not being vaccinated again even if it means no travel to certain countries.
May 22, 2023
I think Sir John, you should look at other experts serious analysis of excess deaths, rather than listen to NHS sources only. The overall deaths ‘with’ Covid were always grossly exaggerated and bear no comparison to deaths from Covid! The dishonesty of government, NHS, scientists and big pharma defies the imagination as they unite in the greatest cover up in history.
Locally, I know of two people who died suddenly, another two people had strokes and several with nasty side effects, all previously healthy.
Read the book by Ed Dowd, Died Suddenly. Read the reports by funeral directors of the unusual blood clots they find in the deceased after vaccination. Read The Bodies of Others by Naomi Wolf.
Ask, in Parliament, why autopsies are not being carried out on the previously healthy who ‘died suddenly’.
May 22, 2023
Many of us will know of people in the past who died ‘suddenly’, also I know of strokes that happened out of the blue. They always did.
May 22, 2023
You need to ask for a table of causes of death by year for the past 5 years.
Hopefully the Government would be honest and fess up, but itâs pretty certain they wonât be.
So I would ask for specific causes of death, such as types of cancer and types of heart problems.
May 22, 2023
What a ridiculous nothing burger is this story about Suella Braverman asking whether she could do a private speed awareness course but then deciding to take speeding points. Quite obviously another attempted hatchet job by civil servants politically opposed to Braverman. Just like Raab and all the ridiculous stories leaked about him – some of them clearly just made up.
May 22, 2023
Richard1 :
The BBC will devote 15 minutes to this subject at the top of the news and the next day Suella Braverman will be back on the back benches.
I wouldnât recommend any Brexit supporting minister getting even a parking ticket if they want to hang on to their job with PM Sunak. Or seen in their ministerial car not wearing a seat belt.
May 22, 2023
Hardly trivial. The law imposed upon the offender Braverman one of two punishments at her option. Rather than accept the lighter, she acting as a Minister of the Crown sought a specially modified arrangement for herself that better suited her wish not to let justice be seen to be done. Only when that outrageous effort was thwarted did she then choose one of the options specified by law.
I would say she is in trouble anyway as Sunakâs commendable effort to win synergistic benefits by placing a not fit for purpose Department under a not fit for purpose Minister are not paying off.
May 22, 2023
OK, so she’s not denying she approached civil servants about driving fine. OK, this is a sackable offence. I might have more sympathy for her if she didn’t try and gaslight herself out of this as if we’re all dumb and she’s so important that the country can’t do without her as Home Secretary. Sooner, she’s gone, the better for the Tory Party so that we can begin the process of trying to figure out how to attract proper, quality Tory politicians into Parliament – instead of all these hopeless lame ducks.
May 22, 2023
+1
May 22, 2023
Lastly, Suella is the type of Tory who still hasn’t learned the lesson that gaslighting doesn’t work. But being honest does. Honesty won’t always get you out of a pickle. But you got a stronger chance of plus you can leave the situation with your head held high. The sooner she goes, the better.
May 22, 2023
Lastly, if she had admitted the truth and apologised, I would 100% let her off the hook with a warning.
It’s not so much her breaking the ministerial code I’m bothered about but all her gaslighting about it.
I hate gaslighting. It’s poisonous / toxic and the influence of can spread to others like a cancer.
We want this kind of approach rooted out of the Tory Party.
Instead we want to attract Tories into the Tory Party who have strong business experience, strong work ethic and when they make a mistake to own up about it instead of gas-lighting about it—–O U T !
May 22, 2023
Lastly, I support her tough stance on immigration. But I hate gas-lighting more than people soft on immigration (again, it’s not the breaking of the ministerial code but the gas-lighting that’s turned me against her – although never admired her style anyway even though I support her on immigration. And personally I don’t believe she really cares all that much about immigration. I think she’s just being ‘tough’ to court support from the right as she wants to be future PM one day – totally overly ambitious person.).
May 22, 2023
Richard none of us know what has gone on with regards to this, but:
I cannot imagine a Minister approaching the Civil Service and other members of staff about such a topic, especially If they wanted to keep it quiet.
I know of three people who took a speed awareness courses during this period, all of them took them at home, on their own computer.
The days of sitting in a hotel room with dozens of others has long since gone, far too expensive to run, and during Covid probably against the rules.
A speed awareness course, as far as I am aware, is offered automatically when you are notified you have been speeding, you then simply make a choice, take the fine and points, or complete a speed awareness course.
The speed awareness course is not usually offered if you have deemed to have gone at an excessive speed over the speed limit.
The truth will out eventually, but as usual it is not the offence which is the problem, but the excessive excuses.
Funny how all the Brexit supporting members are being highlighted recently by the Civil Service though, clearly a co-incidence.
Even the ArchBishop of Canterbury, it has been reported, has just got done for speeding recently in a 20mph limit, and he surely had someone looking out for him, but did he make any complaint !
May 22, 2023
I am of your last sentence, but this does not make my thoughts invalid. You do not need medical training to work out that if you close down normal GP and hospital services due to Covid, early diagnosis of diseases that require early diagnosis do not occur. Following the logic, said diseases go beyond the point of being curable and become long term terminal. Waiting times were bad before Covid, they have accelerated during and post Covid. I conclude, that with no medical training, reaching for the vaccine is an easy cop out.
May 22, 2023
Andrew Bridgen MP tweetred that he has been applying for a debate on Excess Deaths and an adjournment debate on The Amendments to the WHO International Health Regulations in Parliament for months â without success.
Why have you failed to support him? Will you support when he applies again this week? If not, why not?
May 22, 2023
+ hundreds
May 22, 2023
Without data it is difficult to do anything except surmise what may be the cause. Are there excess deaths worldwide? If not then it is unlikely to be due to vaccinations.
The most likely cause will be that it is impossible to see a doctor in a timely fashion and waiting lists to see a consultant within the NHS are grossly extended. With more money in the system than ever before that is a travesty. If we have fewer managers and more clinical staff and move to a model where the NHS gets paid for procedures and appointments rather than block grants that may improve in time, without doing this it won’t.
The NHS would also benefit from acknowledging there are only two sexes and gender is the same as sex. That would save them time and admin and management costs.
May 22, 2023
Apparently I am one of your few constituents who is concerned regarding the continuing high level of Excess Deaths in the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand among other world nations. UK office of national statistics reports 22% above the 5 year national average for the UK.
It is unhelpful to comment that the âmedical establishmentâ, whatever Government Department that is, âdoes not think the increase is not related to Covid vaccinesâ. For my part I want to be told what IS the Cause of the increase and what will be be done about it.
As a taxpayer and a voter I do not wish to be fobbed off by weak explanations as displayed in your post today.
May 22, 2023
We worry about the âspeculationâ and claimed âproofsâ of highly trained medical people, mostly retired because they could afford to ignore the threats of removing their living.
The other thing that is quite worrying is the personal witness of many many unexpected deaths – and worse – serious diseases which will lead to death after much profit to the medical profession – building their empire.
I see Ivermectin is reinstated in the USA, has it been reinstated in the U.K.?
May 22, 2023
The Health Minister needs to produce stats showing where there appear to be more deaths occuring than what is to be expected. Once better categorisation is available suggestions might indicate possible reasons. Age groupings, regional factors, any specific causes ie various types of cancers, liver disease, kidney, bowel or heart increases would help.
May 22, 2023
A study was carried out in Scotland into the sudden increase in neonatal deaths following the vaccine rollout. The question as to whether the mother had been vaccinated against covid was omitted from the study so as not to deter people from getting their shots. This is what we are up against!
May 22, 2023
“cardiovascular causes, and sharply higher from liver disease” ?
Tell them they need to change their life style!
Give up Smoking and Drinking so much?
Or, change whatever new habitual behaviour they have taken on, through Lock-down.
But, something has changed!
And, in my opinion (Where to look);
The odds are against “Long Covid”, but, even that would be Psychosomatic?
So, on an individual basis; I would assume there is something we don’t understand about the “Covid Vaccines”, then that would mean that for the majority, the Vaccines will be fine!
Leave the rest to the Scientists/Doctors to work through, run their Tests!
RDM.
May 22, 2023
It’s obviously dangerous territory for a politician- look what happened to Andrew Bridgen.
After all the officially-engineered shutdown of debate, sanctioning of sceptic doctors, ghastly mistakes and BigPharma capture since 2020, there’s no way anyone will get an honest answer from the NHS or anyone else remotely connected to Covid matters.
One has to go outside the establishment to find out what’s (possibly) going on. I’d post a link to a very recent scientific review on this issue, but TCW is a better place to debate that.
What concerns me is that the government is cheering on mRNA treatments for a wide variety of diseases, partly because the people who want to make money by selling the products or by giving them regulatory approval (these often come from, or go into, Big Pharma after a spell in a regulatory agency) say they are safe. A bit like the tobacco industry and their medical experts saying for years there was no “proven” connection between smoking and cancer.
May 22, 2023
The BBC published its thoughts on excess deaths, earlier this year.
BBC News – Excess deaths in 2022 among worst in 50 years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-64209221
May 22, 2023
“It would be helpful if the NHS could provide …….” .
The NHS cannot be trusted to provide anything for Public scrutiny and has been found out by audits of its largest body in Wales which has been under “special measures” for years.
Some headache ..
May 22, 2023
My own daughter had to have the vaccine to keep her job in the NHS. She had an adverse reaction to the booster shot and ended up in hospital. My stepson had heart palpitations for several months. My daughter-in-law went into premature labour after her vaccine. My husband, who rarely drinks, now has a liver problem. My son-in-law had severe headaches for weeks after his vaccine. Two of my cousins have recently developed Parkinson’s Disease. These incidents could just be a coincidence but in a small family seem rather odd. We need to investigate why people are dying not bury our heads in the sand and ostracise those who ask valid questions.
May 22, 2023
Is this just a UK problem? Do other countries issue such statistics? What is the ratio between excess deaths of those vaccinated and actual covid deaths? Until we have all of the figures (very unlikely) we cannot possibly equate the billions of doses that have been administered worldwide in relation to excess deaths. We will never know, I guess and the naysayers will continue with their theories.
May 22, 2023
Clinical epidemiologist and expert in evidence-based medicine Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson have a Florence Nightingale chart of total deaths to the week ending 28th April at https://trusttheevidence.substack.com/p/update-on-excess-deaths-1b0
They go on to say:
    ‘Now weâve had a lot of toing and froing about the best way to measure the excess, but we think a problem with the baseline average canât fully explain the higher excess in private homes (not nursing homes, peopleâs own homes).
‘The number of deaths was 23.3 per cent above the five-year average in private homes (646 excess deaths), 10.7 per cent in hospitals (521 excess deaths), 8.4% in care homes (186 excess deaths) and 14.3% in other settings (117 excess deaths).’
May 22, 2023
According to EuroMOMO which exists for the sole purpose of comparing excess deaths in 27 countries or regions, excess deaths are at normal levels across Western Europe including NI, Scotland and England.
May 22, 2023
But this is exactly the point, Peter. After a genuine pandemic, when you have lost far more people than would normally be the case, the death rate should be significantly down – not âat normal levelsâ.
May 22, 2023
I don’t think the fact of excess deaths is in dispute, Peter. According to the Office for National Statistics, ‘the number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 5 May 2023 (Week 18) was 11,601, which was 5.4% above the five-year average.’ OECD figures (https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=104676) show that throughout the last winter (January to March), which was unusually mild, all-cause mortality was above-average every week except one. What’s at issue is the cause.
May 22, 2023
The graphs which you show below show that excess deaths have been above the normal level shown by the way green line during the initial pandemic in the spring and early summer of 2020 and since the vaccination started in 2021, with peaks going through to 2022 especially in the larger European countries. For some reason smaller countries such as Cyprus did not record peaks.
May 22, 2023
Euromomo makes no allowance for any recent bout of excess deaths in calculating expected normal deaths. Also it sets a fairly high bar before extra deaths are rated as excess deaths: its method is not designed to pick up lower levels of excess death.
May 23, 2023
?! You canât have ânormalâ excess deaths. Excess deaths are, by definition, not ânormalâ.
May 22, 2023
Anecdotal evidence from people in my locality is that hospitals seems to make a lot of mistakes, especially our most local hospital.
May 22, 2023
and they want a huge pay rise
May 22, 2023
Just like ânet-zeroâ, âcovid-lockdownâ will prove to be the biggest mistake in a century that our government will never own up to. I blame our MPs for following the instructions of the un-elected UN, that organisation that has risen from a single mission of peace to world governance & control
May 22, 2023
Glen Cullen
Spot on!
I never wore a mask and didnât take the Quackzine
Goering said in 1933 that if you frightened people enough you could get them to believe anything
May 22, 2023
The more people,the more deaths.Inward migration also allows for older ailing people to join their relatives in this country Lifestyle and high carbohydrate/sugar intake eventually causes Diabetes Mellitus.
.DM is a disease which primarily affects all the blood vessels in the body .Blood vessels supply all the major organs .DM is responsible for many myocardial infarcts.I would suggest that the numbers are due to mulifactorial causes.
May 22, 2023
well said, and as the cost of decent food increases so people will buy more cheaper ‘rubbish’ in their diets.
Then take into account the working from home sitting on backsides all day – even schoolchildren. Far less exercise in recent years…just saying.
May 22, 2023
They “do not think so”
It’s The Science!
May 22, 2023
âWhat they didnât say: the trumpeted âmiracle of scienceâ was an illogical feat as the trials could not compress time: safety and efficacy in the medium and long term cannot be known from short-term testing; no MP mentioned the troubling surge in mortality since the rolloutâ
Dr Niall McCrae (writing about a survey sent to MPs).
May 22, 2023
“Excess deaths” – I commended John Howell’s response concerning Boris the other day saying ” He could also add my dead body” !.
May 22, 2023
I just hope the conspiracies around the Vax are wrong; I’ve had four jabs and wasn’t very well after the 3 Pz ones. It isn’t so much only the deaths people are getting concerned about; it is the stroke risk and heart problems. A relative was previously fit, healthy weight, and had a checkup a couple of weeks before because she had an unusual tingling in her face, MRI scan showed nothing, never smoked or drunk alcohol, and had a stroke out of the blue.
May 22, 2023
âMeanwhile others without medical training will speculate, with worries about delays and missing treatments amongst the issues they raise.â
As do many *with* medical training.
May 22, 2023
I have no idea if the excess deaths are related to the Covid 19 vaccines. But the standard groupthink reply is that the vaccines are safe. So why is it not sensible to investigate and find out if there is any link? The government wastes millions on other things, so why not spend a few million finding out? But, as with Net Zero, our Government, MPs and the medical establishment are not interested in establishing the facts. It is as if they have all been brainwashed and have lost the capacity to think. Anybody who does and asks a question is quickly frozen out, as Andrew Brigden has been. So be careful, Sir John, you may be next!
May 22, 2023
It appears that this blog, regarding excess deaths, does not suggest the possibility that the closing down of all of our hospitals during the Covid pandemic was instrumental in delaying urgent and vital treatment for an abundance of serious illnesses. This, surely, will have resulted in many “excess” deaths?
I, among many millions around the world, could see from official data ( https://covid19.who.int/) that the number of deaths per infection was no worse than those relating to common influenzas. There have been no lockdowns nor hospital closures to protect us from influenza so the question should be posed why the Johnson government pursued a policy that banned our hospitals from treating those patients who desperately required the treatment to save their lives and to spare their families from the devastation of the death of a loved one.
It was quite clear from the data that the most vulnerable were the over 80s but the then Government adopted the too common but classic, one size fits all principle. I wonder if we shall ever hear the truth about this fiasco.
May 22, 2023
Yes and it was recogised during the pandemic and has been borne out by studies in other countries. Also deaths from Covid itself have risen in the transition to living with Covid. These inevitably, and by definition, contribute to excess deaths compared with a pre-pandemic baseline. However that wave has passed and excess deaths on a weekly basis are now within the normal range in every Western European country including England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. (See EuroMOMO but no data for Wales.)
May 22, 2023
If you want a plot of excess deaths week by week, it has already been done from mid 2017 up to 30 April 2023. It’s available separately for England, Scotland and Northern Ireland:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country
May 22, 2023
PG, thanks a lot.
May 22, 2023
Yet again, the voice of common sense & reason. Will be interesting to see if the NHS will respond.
May 22, 2023
One survey found that lifetime smokers were less in danger from Covid19 than those who had stopped smoking or never smoked!
That was because a smoker’s lungs had adapted to cough up and spit out phlegm from the lungs. Mine do.
As to the cardiovascualar deaths, there has definitely been an increase in blood clots and heart problems, coinciding with the Covid vaccinations.
How much more proof does the N.H.S. and Health Department, require before admitting it was wrong?
Liver disease may well have increased due to W.F.H. and binge drinking at home because pubs were closed.
I am 78yrs old, refused any Covid jab, or any flu jab. I got a mask exempt sign early on. Defied the Lock Down tyranny as far as possible and have had NO new problems. Friends who obeyed the rules are now very close to death, some younger than me.
May 22, 2023
Well done. I wish Iâd stuck to my instincts. It was all so rushed but the pressure felt overwhelming. And there was the threat that you wouldnât be allowed to do anything without a bloody vaccine certificate. I really wish I hadnât had the vaccines.
May 22, 2023
“The overall excess death numbers are well below the covid peak prior to general vaccination.” That is another issue requiring examination: the real causes of deaths of those shunted off to care homes from hospitals to make way for the ‘flood’ of covid patients arriving.
May 22, 2023
It was investigated by the ONS. I cannot remember when or the details but the general conclusion, from memory, was that the difference between death with and death from Covid, was baout 10-15% overall. In any case trends over time would not have been affected at all so long as the criteria for attributing death on death certificates were constant over time.
May 23, 2023
I said the “real” causes of death not what doctors were ordered to put on death certificates. Of course, no post mortems on alleged victims of covid were performed to validate causes because the bodies were so dangerously infectious or so we were told.
May 22, 2023
Sir John, you may not get anything sensible out of the the NHS. But if you really want to know, you could always ask your colleague, Andrew Bridgen. He is on top of the issue.
May 22, 2023
âThe overall excess death numbers are well below the covid peak prior to general vaccination.â
Iâm not sure that is correct.
âExcess deaths in the past year were thousands higher than in the pandemic year of 2021 â 67,724 vs 54,770 above the pre-pandemic five-year average â and just a quarter were from Covid. Lucy Johnston has the story in the Express.â
May 22, 2023
‘to make way for the âfloodâ of covid patients arriving’.
The flood that never arrived! Witness the unused Nightingale Hospitals, more ÂŁbillions tipped down the drain.
May 22, 2023
Of course nobody wants it to be the vaccine but surely if there is only the tiniest seed of doubt then the ethical thing to do is to investigate it thoroughly instead of trying to cover it up and silence people?
May 22, 2023
You must be joking. If it was investigated (and it will never be investigated) and a problem was found (no problem will ever be found) the lawsuits would bankrupt the government I.e. US!
May 22, 2023
From the last published Yellow Card reports there were nearly half a million serious side effects reported and over 2,400 deaths. These are accepted as very under reported!
In contrast, when two deaths occurred following the swine flu vaccination, they were withdrawn immediately. Let that sink in.
May 22, 2023
The Tories didnât like the idea of higher growth so they got rid of Liz
The Tories donât like the idea of lower immigration so theyâre getting rid of Suella
May 22, 2023
Not true. I’m a Tory and I fully support tough lower immigration.
But to me, I hate gaslighting more than high immigration.
That’s why Suella has to go.
Also, gaslighting sends a toxic message to other politicians and people in general that it’s OK to gaslight. No it isn’t.
May 22, 2023
(And if she’d broken the ministerial code and not gaslighted about it, I’d definitely let her off the hook but with a strong warning).
May 23, 2023
While I agree with your comments, she’s the only one at cabinet who is fighting to lower immigration
May 23, 2023
I’m confused; what gaslighting has Suella done?
“Psychologists use the term âgaslightingâ to refer to a specific type of manipulation where the manipulator is trying to get someone else (or a group of people) to question their own reality, memory or perceptions. And it’s always a serious problem, according to psychologists.13 Jul 2018
May 24, 2023
And I’m not being over-idealistic ’cause the Tories we had at the time of Thatcher were of a much higher calibre than what we have now.
And the number 1 focus of the next Tory Party regarding policy is how to attract higher quality Tories. I don’t know the answer to that. But clunk lots of heads together and we might come up with something. Instead of all this same-old, same-old mediocre complacency.
May 22, 2023
There has been an incredible amount of propaganda from the UK gov regarding vaccines. The problem is that this propaganda is indiscriminate: it affects NHS staff, scientists, GPs, as well as everyone else. This leads to a problem of trust.
May 22, 2023
If it’s any consolation, little can be done about a higher incidence of cardiac problems: they will not be picked up at primary level in any case, as GPs work such short hours that the chances are the doctor the patient sees has neither prior knowledge of the patient, nor much general diagnostic experience. Only when the NHS stops paying the GPs per patient per practice and starts insisting on specific performance targets will patients start getting a service. A service that is now so expensive to fund, taxes will have to be raised – for those who pay them and subsidise the increasing numbers of work-free who don’t!
May 23, 2023
I’d be interested in the number of new neurological conditions, too especially in people under 45.
May 22, 2023
They will never, ever, ever admit to a problem with the vaccines.
May 23, 2023
“The NHS medical establishment makes clear they do not think so and continue to recommend the vaccines as safe”!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I cannot say too much here other than
the REAL conspiracy theorists believe their government cares about them, the media would never mislead or lie to them and the pharmaceutical /medical industry that makes billions from sickness wants to cure them.
May 24, 2023
Lastly, one reason Brexit was partly a joke was because it hired, metaphorically-speaking, a jester to implement it.
No leader. No plan. No finances in the country to support the transition.
The writing was on the wall all along.
(Again, I strongly support full Sovereignty of this country but as long as approached the right way)
May 24, 2023
Lastly, I’m an optimist and I hold no grudges against anyone. I believe the Tory Party and more importantly this country, that I love, has potentially a GREAT future (perhaps even Brexit one day could work / work well but I can’t see that happening any time soon). But to to get there with the Tory Party, at least, the absolute no 1 goal / focus right now must be: ‘HOW DO WE ATTRACT HIGHER CALIBRE TORY MPS INTO PARLIAMENT?’
It’s a complicated subject. But I hope senior Tories can address this more in the media and in Party Conference. And if they do that, they’ll be doing a GREAT service to the Tory Party (and the country).
Thanks.
May 25, 2023
Nothing wrong with Brexit if e actually completed it.