It is time to change the OBR driven control system. It is said to control the build up of debt and to keep the U.K. Â state solvent. Strange then that over their years of influence state debt has grown massively, huge sums of money have been printed, we have lived through a nasty inflation, and debt interest costs as they report them have leapt up. To make it worse U.K. growth has been almost as bad as the EUâs, falling way behind the USA.
The central OBR control is absurd. Government has to set out tax and spending proposals to give a falling state debt relative to GDP five years out. So budgets revolve around an OBR forecast of a deficit in five years time. The figure is bound to be wrong as no one can forecast that figure reliably. OBR forecasts of nearer term deficits are regularly out by large margins. The five year target is a moving target, shifting out another year as each year passes, so the accuracy of the original target forecast is irrelevant. It does however lead to a permanent bias in official advice against any so called unfunded tax cut. There is no similar pressure against many unfunded spending increases. There is no pressure of any kind to get the Bank of England to lose less, and no effective power to cut the losses of nationalised rail or the Post Office.
We need a new system that controls current year and next year spending and borrowing better. The new government saying current spending and current revenue should balance is a start. Their wish to be allowed to borrow more to invest only makes sense if what they invest in goes on to make returns. Borrowing to do more HS2 or Horizon computer type projects is a very bad idea. Leaving utilities investment to the private sector is a better idea than effectively nationalising them and discovering the state  cannot afford the investment and are no good at running them.
September 29, 2024
Anything the government considers a good investment almost certainly is not. Net zero, road blocking, renewables, loans for pointless degrees is all about tipping ÂŁbillions down the drain. The way to invest well is to leave the money with those who mad it.
Still some good new the appalling Cameron Appointment as Chairman of the Conservative Baroness Warsi has quit the party alas not the Lords.
Also congratulation to Rosie Duffield.
âLabour MP quits over âfreebiesâ scandal and Keir Starmerâs âcruel policiesâ
Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield tells leader she is âashamedâ of how âinner circle had tarnished and humiliated our once proud partyââ but when were they proud? Prouder perhaps but alway wrong headed and doing more harm than good, an evil politics of envy party, legalised theft and wars on lies. Nothing much to be proud of.
September 29, 2024
âHad tarnishedâ indicates it was done in the past. âTarnishesâ would be more accurate in the continuous present tense, along with all the other Labour bozos going wrong.
September 29, 2024
The OBR is parallel unaccoutable government. I can understand it as a CS function to ensure that the UK towed the line on EU financial dictat, but we have been out a while now. It would seem that government and the CS are happy to continue with such subversive action. Be in no doubt, it undermines democracy, and covers for the responsibility of government to run the finances of the UK. Its existence begs the question of what is the purpoose of having a Chancellor and Treasury.
It was undoubtedly elements in the OBR, Treasury, and BOE who did for the Liz Truss government which was trying to create an enterprise and entrepreneurial economy to trade our way out of defecit constant increases. Reform will need to cull these quangos to be able to implement its own solutions to our economy. They must end unelected government should they gain political power.
September 29, 2024
It undermines âdemocracyâ well yes it does, but is a vote every five years or so for MPs under a distorting FPTP voting system. One that means you often have to vote not for what you want (in order not to waste your vote) and this based on a manifesto of lies that they will not even try to deliver. This is not Power to the Demos is it. Look back at the last 5 Tory Manifestos of blatant lies. The leadership candidates say thinks the Tories lost the trust of voters. No they actually smashed them in the face repeatedly treating them with complete contempt.
Whomever you vote for The Blob Wins as Lord Matt Ridley correctly put it in the Spectator. Now to be edited by Socialist nutter, Greta disciple, fan of VAT on school fees, net zero⊠the daft English Graduate one Michael Gove.
September 29, 2024
Michael Gove is clever enough to convince himself black is white and vice versa at precisely the same time, Heisenberg’s Uncertainty principle notwithstanding.
September 29, 2024
I think now liebour are in the OBR will show its true colours
Like most Quangos it’s left wing and will be more receptive to a liebour chancellor. No doubt unfunded spending will become acceptable unlike during the Truss period.
September 29, 2024
So King Charles hops up to Edinburgh (by bike or walking I assume) to celebrate the disaster of 25 years of the Scottish half parliament. The building project had an initial budget of ÂŁ50 million which ballooned to around ÂŁ260 million within two years. Eventually, the building cost ÂŁ414 million. That just the building the people in it cost hundreds of time more.
Has anything other than negative disasters come from this âinvestmentâ? Thanks Tony Blair.
September 29, 2024
A Labour Government Should FRIGHTEN Us All. To Save Britain We Must REVERSE Blair’s Revolution
David Starkey video on the New Culture Forum.
September 29, 2024
Yes LL, Winston’s quote on socialism is truer today than when he made it. Look it up.
September 29, 2024
âSome regard private enterprise as if it were a predatory tiger to be shot. Others look upon it as a cow that they can milk. Only a handful see it for what it really is–the strong horse that pulls the whole cart.â
Or âSocialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.â
â Winston S. Churchill
â Winston Churchill
or
September 29, 2024
LL,
No.2.
September 29, 2024
If You Are Not a Liberal When You Are Young, You Have No Heart, and If You Are Not a Conservative When Old, You Have No Brainâ
The trouble with socialists is they rapidly run out of other peopleâs money. Or of people with any money to steal off them.
September 29, 2024
Lifelogic
I saw that video with David Starkey. It made a lot of what we are seeing so clear!
In another article it was described how Starmer is continuing the work… GB Energy being one example… more quango dominated governance!
September 29, 2024
Labour killed the Constitution; time for a Restoration: is another excellent David Starkey video.
September 29, 2024
I’d like to see a 21st Century Enlightenment as well. Look at the anti-truth dogma nonsense being put about by power-hungry zealots. Gender vs Sex, Climate change, Governments produce energy….
September 29, 2024
Charles used his trip to give “the peasants” another science-free lecture about the climate. He really does seem determined to prove that he learnt nothing from Mummy and is in the same Monarchical league as Charles I.
September 29, 2024
It is time to change the OBR driven control system.
It certainly is and the Committee for Climate Change driven net zero lunacy.
They did get rid of Osborneâs Office for Tax Simplification after they had at least doubles tax complexity.
Philip Hammond )alas now in the Lords a reward for abject failure) says on Any Questions he supports growth policies. Nothing remotely pro-growth from May and tax to death Hammond when in office. Far more into reversing in all but name Brexit, pushing the net zero lunacy and increasing taxes everywhere.
September 29, 2024
The House of Lords… seems packed with past politicians who did and doing the country harm.
I always thought the Hereditary Peers were at least relatively unbiased, but the political ones are so damaging and self serving. Perhaps the idea of getting rid of the House of Lords, is a good one – just keep the hereditary ones!
September 29, 2024
Then it must be ended with their dissolution and a return to democratic financial control by elected government. The OBR, an infected Treasury, and BOE are a hangover from EU control, so effective remedial surgery upon their existence and ongoing purpose is required. Do not anticipate this from our current Chancellor, she is a product of the infection. Reform are the only tool for such action.
September 29, 2024
Well yes but Reform ever gain power and if they do will they deliver what they promise and more than the Tories did. They Tories for 14 years did not even try to. The unequivocal covid vaccine and lockdown enthusiast, the dope Sunak even threw in the towel six month early.
September 29, 2024
This is the third posting this morning. I precis it as a need to return to democratic financial control by an elected Chancellor.
September 29, 2024
This is the third posting this morning. I precis it as a need to return to democratic financial control by ain elected Chancellor.
Reply I have posted all your postings. No need to repeat them.
September 29, 2024
R ti R
It is their capacity for apparent disappearance that caused all the repetition. Additionally my name and email address also repeatedly disappeared. It proved that once frustration had set in, it was possible to use far fewer words than at first thought necessary.
September 29, 2024
That is a cookie issue with the website. If your email disappears from the bottom the cookies are not retaining your details. Delete all cookies and re accept.
The issue seems more prevalent with mobile browsers but sometimes appears on a desktop.
September 29, 2024
This is the third posting this morning. I precis it as a need to return to democratic financial control by an elected Chancellor.
Why does the posting only appeare after posting and moderation. Something is very odd this morning.
September 29, 2024
That happens to me all the time. Every time I try to post something.
And quite often it never reappears. Ever.
Oh and my name always disappears so I have to put it in each time.
September 29, 2024
Not that I mind about my (no doubt boring) comments but I always worry that I have put somethingâŠyou knowâŠâwrongâ without realising. But trying to come up with something passable has been part of my day since the dire times of at least MayâŠpossibly Cameron. This is a lovely and much appreciated forum.
And worseâŠI canât work out in what way my comments are more âwrongâ than a lot of others I see.
Especially since JR sometimes publishes comments which he then upbraids. Why not just not publish such comments.
They could just go and sit on the ânaughty stepâ with mine!
Still, none of this really matters in the face of the general direness.
September 29, 2024
EH,
Yes, ticking the appropriate box has little effect. Imagine what AI might do when unleashed.
September 29, 2024
Good morning.
No ! It is time to shut it down ! We managed well enough before, Gideon Osborne crated this, ‘Jobs for the boys’ QUANGO and is has been shown to consistantly fail. If such a creatre was in the Private Sector it would have been axes long ago. But since it is in the public Sector and it is not properly held into account, it is aloud to continue.
Why ?
We already have such a system, but it does not work. It is called, ‘Parliament’. I wonder if you have ever heard of it, Sir John ? /sarc đ
Our system, such that it is, relies on people of good character to operate, with suitable checks and balances in place, it can be made to work. But since the Blair ‘reforms’ and the fact that we no longer allow people of good concience anywhere near power, it will always be sub-par.
To that end we need to seperate the Executive from the Legislature. With the latter holding the purse strings. Then we the people can better control government via the ballot box.
September 29, 2024
The OBR has surely done one good thing. Earlier this month, it revealed that low-wage migrants – who form the majority of migrants according to the Centre for Policy Studies – are a net drain on the public purse, each costing taxpayers more than ÂŁ150,000 up to age 65. And that’s without the cost to the public purse of their numerous dependants. The OBR made long-term tax and spending projections showing that a low-wage migrant worker arriving at 25 and earning half the UK average wage ‘becomes less fiscally beneficial than the average UK resident in their early 40s’.
What’s the Labour government’s view on this? As usual, doing the opposite of what they said. Before the election Starmer said Britain should be less reliant on low wage migration. But in July, his government relaxed visa rules making it easier for foreign bricklayers, roofers and joiners to migrate here. The government wants more houses built, so…. it brings in more migrants to build them. And why do we need more houses? Because of high migration, as even the OBR admits. Lewis Carroll would love this.
September 29, 2024
Business benefits from low wage immigration, more customers and cheaper wages.
Everyone else suffers – greater tax drain, fewer hoses, higher prices. Ghettos, crime but we do get better takeaway food.
N one should be allowed to come in to this country unless they earn ÂŁ50K for themselves and each dependent but that requires a complete overhaul of the benefits system so that our work shy have to work. It will also require an overhaul of law and order so that those losing benefits don’t just find it easier to break the law.
September 29, 2024
The OBR (one of Osborne’s “bright” ideas) is part of the Quangocracy which is intended to prevent anything vaguely approaching democracy from being implemented in the UK. They are not working in the interests of the UK.
How do you solve a problem like the OBR? You abolish it.
When it comes to spending on infrastructure, the lunatics in Government should reinstate the plans to tunnel at Stonehenge. On Friday I travelled home from holiday and hit the usual tailback on the approach to Stonehenge but this time the traffic didn’t start moving when drivers passed the stones. Shortly before an accident had occurred at Winterborne Stoke and closed the single lane heading west. After half an hour of barely moving, the police set up a Stop-Go and after another half an hour I crawled through it.
In the 21st century, on the major trunk road to the West Country, we rely on the police setting up a manual Stop-Go system in order to keep the traffic (barely) moving. Why on earth didn’t the last Government get on with it and get the work started instead of wasting ÂŁtens of billions on the Vanity Rail Line to nowhere!
September 29, 2024
The bottle neck that used to be at Liphook in Hampshire… since that tunnel was built, traffic just flows!
I’ve driven past Stonehenge… it’s very busy! A tunnel would do wonders!!
But that’s sensible and so not popular with the eco people!
September 29, 2024
+++
Someone told me it had taken them 8 hours to get to CornwallâŠusual driving time about 5 hours.
But then we must not forget that driving is somewhat frowned upon at the moment! So probably not facilitated?
The response to accidents now seems to be to close roads, never mind the chaos and traffic build up. I am certain it didnât used to be like that. The same with roadworks.
Not sure whether it is Health and Safety or sheer inefficiency?
September 29, 2024
+1
September 29, 2024
A Chancellorâs role is to manage the UK finances. The OBR operates like a piece of grit in the clockwork, throwing smoothness into false readings that mislead anyone taking notice of their face value.
September 29, 2024
All this forecasting stuff is totally absurd.
Why should we be forced to live our lives in advance in 5 years chunks of doom? Life is brutal and short enough as it is. And the forecasts cause such upset and pandemonium.
In June of this year Reeves mentioned (in the FT) that as an incoming govt. there would be no nasty surprises thanks to the OBR. âWeâve got the OBR nowâ.
I think that Labour also had/has plans to give the OBR more powers.
And is the OBR launching an enquiry into Tory probity or something?
September 29, 2024
As you point out, the process is nonsensical. It starts with the wrong objective (debt level) at the wrong point of time (5 years out). Government like business cannot do everything it wants. It must make choices that reflect the means available to it. The established political parties have failed to do this when in government. They are squander bugs. That is why they are unfit for office.
September 29, 2024
Why not call for now and first of the abolition of the OBR first. Otherwise it’s just, as usual, changing some details.
Never anything courageous. Too personally risky.
Reply I did advise the last government to say the OBR was truly independent and in future needed to finance itself from selling its forecasts to companies and people who thought they were any use! I told them how damaging the OBR was to their task.
September 29, 2024
The OBR should be re-named the OBI, Office of Budgetary Irresponsibility
September 29, 2024
The government sets the rules that the OBR reports on, change the rules.
The OBR reassures markets which then lend us money.
Stop borrowing money and abolish the OBR. To stop borrowing money we need growth and spending cuts (contributions to all types of immigrants and public sector pensions is a good place to start and then out of work or part time working benefits). That requires lower taxes and a set of cahones.
September 29, 2024
Presumably SIr John has many ideas on how to improve the process. I hope he will write about them in future. Meanwhile is there a reasonably current international comparison of budgetary and financial accountability processes and how effective they are? It would be a good place to start. The Westminster Foundation for Democracy might have some ideas and examples of better governance.
It may turn out that that the real problems and solutions are not to be found in structures and processes followed but in the people involved. Some believe in levelling, some in re-distribution of wealth, others in confiscation, others in individual freedom, some even in capitalism. Language is chosen to hide or disguise views thought to be unpopular, particularly around elections and other key political events. Finding a disinterested group that is competent and can be given the power to scrutinise objectively and wihout fear or favour is extremely difficult.
September 29, 2024
Seeking enlightenment I went to the OBR’s website. It says:
“We recently undertook a comprehensive look at the OBRâs overall forecasting record since we were established in 2010 in Working paper No.19: The OBRâs forecast performance.” Linked to https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/WP19_The_OBRs_forecast_performance_Aug23.pdf
When you click on the link you get a message:
“404 Not Found
nginx”
Jinxed indeed. Well, it is the OBR. I was naive to expect anything better.
September 29, 2024
OBR ineffective and never right….. No wonder we are in such an economic mess.
Whomsoever designed the OBR was clearly working at cross purposes to the stated aim of this quango.
Some would argue that the OBR is responding to globalist pressures to reduce the economy, bankrupt the national purse and set us on a path for de-industrialisation. It would appear that without doubt the OBR is certainly not taking us into a new economic golden age.
The trouble is that due to the inadequacies of ministers who are often economically illiterate, the government needs some body to tell them what to think and what to do. That way they always have an excuse ready when we become insolvent.
SCRAP the OBR and make ministers take basic lessons in economics.