This website does not talk a lot about the Conservative party any more following the big defeat. It rightly concentrates on the government, as it did when Conservatives were in office. However, we do need a good Opposition and so I am doing a piece about the Conservative Leadership race. The choice of the best candidate to become Leader of the Opposition does matter, as he or she will have the first right of reply to government in the House, have five questions every week to the PMĀ and the right to choose the debates for Opposition days. They will also need to decide how the Conservative party deals with the 7 million voters who left it for Reform or to abstain.The 5 Reform MPs will also develop their own role as an Opposition party.
How have the four Conservative candidates performed in Opposition?
Perhaps the best test of them is to see how they have spent their first three months in opposition and to see how successful they have been.
Robert Jenrick has made a number of successful attacks on Labour policy despite not being a Shadow Cabinet member. He has provided a good critique of the Prime Minister’s conduct, of the migration failings, of the bad international negotiations and of the freebies and donations.
Tom Tugendhat shadows the Security Minister. He sent him a good will message on appointment and has failed to attack him for anything that comes up on a Google search. Indeed many people do not know the name of the current Security Minister, Dan Jarvis because his faults of commission and omission are not highlighted by his Shadow. He is responsible forĀ reducing organised crime and for counter terrorism. There are plenty of issues over foreign criminals, illegal migration, the handling of the Middle East and UK self sufficiency in protection and defence items to pursue.
Kemi Badenoch shadows Angela Rayner. She has been spoilt for choice over whether to highlight the freebies and lifestyle, the failure to come forward with planning legislation despite the urgency, the lack of understanding by Rayner of the importance of mortgages and interest rates to the housing market and the likelihood Rayner will not hit her ambitious housing targets. The only Google result is a general condemnation of Rayner for not having “a clue what she is doing”
James Cleverly shadows Yvette Cooper. He did engage when Cooper sought to exaggerate the costs and minimise the advantages of the Rwanda scheme. He has not followed through more recently in detail.
How did they perform in government?
Robert Jenrick tried hard to control legal and illegal migration. Frustrated by a lack of support from the rest of the government he resigned over the need to firm up the policy and did good detailed work on the backbenches putting to government practical ways of delivering Conservative promises on immigration. He showed he had got it before the electorate passed their verdict on broken promises.
Tom Tugendhat did not use his post as Security Minister to make important changes to the control of our borders or to tackle organised crime. Nor did he use his power to speak and influence on defence matters to increase our national self sufficiency in weapons or seek to give us a better Iron Dome type defence. I never heard him express any views in private that wanted change to a government that was clearly letting the country down.
Kemi Badenoch who now speaks eloquently of the need for less regulation and smaller government as Deregulation Minister took out the main measuresĀ of repeal from the EU laws Bill that had passed the Commons . SheĀ blocked many good ideas for less and better regulation put to her by MPs. She did not lead positively on the closure of steel works, the compensation and need forĀ improved management at the Post Office, or the impact of net zero policies on the car industry, usually leaving these key issues to junior Ministers in her department.
James Cleverly did put in agreed proposals to reduce legal migration which are now having an impact. He did not accept amendments to the law proposed by Robert Jenrick and others to get flights off to Rwanda sooner to increase the deterrent effect.
Conclusion
I recommend that MPs vote for Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly to go to the members for decision. IĀ expect Tom Tugendhat to be dropped in the next MP voting round, and think it likely Kemi Bademoch is dropped at the final MP round.
October 6, 2024
Frankly SJR, I cannot see any of them having a serious opposition impact. Even were they to, it is very doubtful the parliamentary party would give them unquestioning support. Conservatism is on life support in Parliament.
The big voice in opposition will I hope come from Reform, in quality if not in frequency, due to their numbers. They are busy building their case on social media and in the constituencies, in anticipation of local elections and the next general election. Your sort of conservatism now only resides in Reform and the country at large. I am sure they would be grateful for the level of financial expertise you and the likes of Liam Halligan could bring to the party. The task of resetting the UK is a monumental one so please do your bit, publicly or below the horrizon, as you think fit.
October 6, 2024
Non of the candidates are tories in the true sense of the word. They are all tainted with being part of the mass failure of the last government.
The current incumbents are going to continue to slash and burn our country with the only opposition coming from Reform.
It matters not one iota who is selected to oversee the final death throes of the once mighty conservative party.
October 6, 2024
@Ian wragg +1
October 6, 2024
+1
My thoughts as well, traditional Conservatives will stick with Reform if they can grow a big enough Party in time for the next election whenever that may be.
October 6, 2024
Whomever they choose they he or she be leading about 100 lefty, net zero pushing, tax to death Libdims, most of whom lied to voters in up to four manifestos – then they chose to betray all these promises and serially to kick their supporters in the face.
Reply Leading a party which has just won 5 Council by election seats from Labour as have Lib Demās, with Reform winning 2. The battle to oppose is intense.
October 6, 2024
+1
October 7, 2024
Whenever I hear of some new governmental outrage, I think: if it were not for Farage getting his strategy wrong, this would not be happening – 5 attacks on free speech, giving away the Chagos Islands, abolishing the European Scrutiny Committee, that sort of thing, and we haven’t even had the budget yet. Farage should have gone for the Labour Party first as it was far more dangerous to the country than the wet Conservatives. Then, once ensconced as the Opposition, he could have turned his attention to the Conservatives. Unfortunately, his petty jealousy of Boris let us all down and now we will lose Brexit and a whole lot else.
October 6, 2024
ā Frankly SJR, I cannot see any of them having a serious opposition impact. Even were they to, it is very doubtful the parliamentary party would give them unquestioning support.ā
Sums it up concisely.
Conservatives have said nothing of worth since losing the election. Many will have noticed they have gone missing but how many will be that bothered?
I do not think they will change. They will hope that buyersā remorse and Bugginsā turn will get them back in power. They are also hoping support for Reform will somehow disappear.
October 6, 2024
Ancient scribbler Janet Daley in the Torygraph:-
āA Conservative comeback is beginning to look inevitable
There are no serious challenges to the party in the long-term, and Labour is flailing under the rule of Sir Keir Starmerā
She thinks Reform will somehow go the way of the Social Democrats.
Dream on Janet.
October 6, 2024
I tend to agree the Tories need a deal with Reform or they are doomed. The brand has been trashed by serial lying manifestos and crooks.
October 7, 2024
Ll,
However Reform need a deal with the Tories like a hole in the head.
October 6, 2024
Yes. The SocDems were a top down Party. Reform is a bottom up one; 85,000 members and the vast majority are, or are prepared to become, Activists.
October 6, 2024
I can only agree. Why vote for Jenrick’s Conservatives who are trying to mimic Nigel Farage? Why not vote for the real thing?
October 6, 2024
Jenrick’s policies and delivery has an awfully long way to go to mimic and overturn Reform. A losing bet if ever I saw one. But then, why vote for the Party if we can still call it that lead by any of the others?
October 6, 2024
Well precisely.
Whichever candidate is chosen, they won’t have the support of half the natural constituency of Conservative voters, who’d rather see the party as it stands die than resurrect itself. There is no future in a split centre right. Tugendhat types need to decamp to Libdems, and Jenrick types need to choose Libdems or Reform. Perhaps Tories might lose 10-20% in the country to Libdems but the remainder would naturally go Reform.
October 6, 2024
I agree with all that suggestion, Sir Johns expertise should get the support it deserves and what the public really need!
October 6, 2024
Good morning
What, it has taken your party (I assume you are still a member) three plus months to choose a leader ! Mrs.T was gone and replaced in days ! Your party faffs around whilst Starmer and his mob run riot. All planned and agreed I would argue. Ergo – Lack of Opposition. Anyway, we all know its going to be the Diversity Hire š
Oh I think the ‘Dear Deputy Leader’ knows more about housing than you give her credit for, Sir John, Know what I mean š It ain’t just dresses, but address as well.
She is in good company, and not just on her own benches, but the ‘Opposition’ (sic) Benches too ! I would say something about pots and kettles, what with them being much alike, but it could be misconstrude given that the Diversity Hire comes under the pot bit. Don’t want the ‘Thought and Hurty Word Police’ tapping on my door.
What concerns me most, and I have said this here many years ago, is that for our so called democracy to work, it has to have an effective Oppostion Party to hold it to account. But the Conservative Party and those running for its Leader are so tainted with failure, you might as well leave the Little Usurper in charge. It’ll do him some good.
October 6, 2024
+1. The best they could all do is get different jobs and recommend Tory voters select another Party to follow: one that behaves like a Conservative one.
October 6, 2024
@Wanderer +1
October 6, 2024
I wouldn’t vote for a Party that is going to behave the way the last so-called Conservative one did!
October 6, 2024
None of the candidates have completed their apprenticeships; so I agree, there is going to be precious little effective opposition from the PCP. Ms Baddenoch was real disappointment, she talks a very good talk but when she had the power she buckled.
I’m beginning to wonder about Mr Farage; is he just getting too comfortable to be bothered with the madness and risks of politics?
October 6, 2024
Like Starmer, why show your best weapons when little is to be gained? Sitting back and let the Party in power hang itself….time will show.
October 6, 2024
If you do the maths based on the OBR figure of each low skilled migrant costing tax payers Ā£500,000 and 4 million low skilled migrants (there are probably double that) then you end up with a cost to tax payers of Ā£2 trillion. This figure doubles the national debt. Possibly triples the national debt.
So the question becomes what does this debt look like. Itās not in the form of Gilts or financial contracts.
This debt is what I will call āimmigrant debtā.
Immigrant debt needs to be paid for not in the form of financial repayments but in the form of benefits, council houses, prisons, health, schools etc. In other words immigration debt takes the form of Government spending and flys āunder the radarā.
To hide this debt the Government can stop publishing the figures and can claim you are a racist if you want to know them. Itās latent, permissive, inflation linked debt.
The biggest signs of this debt is that Government services fall by becoming ādilutedā.
Another sign of this debt is that Government borrowing becomes limited so that instead of borrowing money they have to spend the debt directly on services.
Hiding spending, falling services and limited borrowing are three key features of Government over the past year.
October 6, 2024
Nicely put.
October 6, 2024
They are in BIG trouble. I see Sue Grey has quit. Who is going to hold Starmerās hand now?
October 6, 2024
Not so much quit as thought ‘I can get any job now without all the shit flying as if its all my fault.’
What intrigued me – did I hear right? Regions and Nations? Aren’t there people in jobs for that already?
Is that based at No 10 or the Foreign Office? A nice little sinecure?
October 6, 2024
In the time since the election none of those candidates have come close to putting in the effort and providing the eloquent critique of the government that you have done Sir John. Nor has Mr. Sunak, despite taking the salary.
None of the candidates has explained how they will go about leading c. 100 Lib Dems/ social democrats who will not wish to be led anywhere a Conservative would want to take them. Those candidates who are themselves amongst the c.100 perhaps consider there is no need of course.
October 6, 2024
Exactly right, F57.
October 6, 2024
+1
October 6, 2024
Kemi is the preferred choice of the members so this would prevent then getting a fair choice. Cleverly is rather tedious and certainly not remotely clever. He was also it seems in favour of the Chagos policy.
Cleverly says broadly the right things now but how can we possibly trust him? Plus he moronically still believes in the Net Zero lunacy He reminds me of cast iron David Cameron low tax at heart, thin gruel, Euro Sceptic, I will stay on and deliver either outcome of the referendum vote, abandon ship, tax to death daveā¦
October 6, 2024
A tweet from Clare Coutinio
So now we know:
Winter Fuel Payment – wonāt raise any money
Schools Tax – wonāt raise any money
Private Equity & Nom Doms Tax – wonāt raise any money
Turns out Rachelās politics of envy doesnāt pay and itāll be the public who are stuck with the bill.
All true but she is another fool who either believes in Net Zero or lies that she does. She should add Net Zero and carbon capture total lunacy. The market rigging in energy, EV cars, education, housing, transportā¦ all mad.
Indeed from that huge tax levels left by the Con-Socialist tax increases in general will raise not more tax and kill growth and the UK tax base. As will open door low skilled immigration.
Reply Good points. Claire is doing a great job as Shadow Energy.
October 6, 2024
Claire Coutinho rather.
On Any Questions yesterday, the four panelist were asked about Carbon Capture three supported this Ā£billion down the drain lunacy, the other was a green zealot who was against it as he sees it as a ruse to keep using gas, coal and oil.
The sensible answer is obviously we should keep using fossil fuels and not waste money and energy capturing the net beneficial CO2. Typical BBC panel. I listened to Any Answers to see if any of the public would put them right. But they devoted the who of the programme to the Assisted Suicide debate which the lefty, touchy feely, dopy presenter insisted on absurdly calling it āassisted dyingā at least she did not go for āassisted passing awayā.
October 6, 2024
Well yes good points but she has a half maths degree (albeit only from Oxford) so she should be able to understand that net zero is lunacy, carbon capture is lunacy, CO2 is net beneficial, EV cars safe no CO2, heat pumps are pointless and impractical in general.
So is she lying and pretending to want net zero for political reasons or has she actually fallen for this mad religion?
October 6, 2024
Another disaster is the multi weapon war on landlords.
Mike Warburton a retired GT tax director talks alot of sense.
āIn Devon, I immediately saw the damage caused by war on holiday letsā
October 6, 2024
The membership (what is left of it – all Lib Demās) donāt know the facts – that she was the most pathetic, helpless minister ever.
October 6, 2024
difficult decision, lots of competition for that accusation.
October 6, 2024
+1. LL
October 6, 2024
I accept your views on the performance of the candidates but am sorry you didn’t mention Tory principles which to me is the key issue. Only Kemi Badenoch recognises that – so far. She therefore will get my vote.
Reply Kemi failed to implement Conservative principles as Business Secretary, undermining moves to less regulation.
October 6, 2024
If you members are allowed to vote for Kemi and not stitched up. If Kemi does get in will she be removed by the generally dire Tory MPs as Truss was?
Very clever of Sunak and the BoE to blame the appalling economic mess Chancellor Sunak & the BoE left on the few days of poor Truss who was broadly right if rather clumsy.
October 6, 2024
That is true Sir John – are you in a position to comment on how much of that failure was collective responsibility and direction from the PM and how much was missing principles?
Or should we take your evident preference for others as the answer?
Reply There was no visible wish to change the government to a Conservative direction.
October 6, 2024
yep …- new-fangled Communism or deranged Liberal Socialist whatever that allows.
October 6, 2024
It is always easy to blame Kemi for not doing something while in government, but what were the constraints on her, financially, from other ministers, and from the PM.
I still think she has the capacity to be a second Thatcher, the only one with a STEM background, and probably the most sceptical of the Net Zero delusion. This government needs a complete demolition job from the Opposition front bench and I believe she is the most capable of delivering it.
Reply Listen to someone who knows these people. Kemi was Cabinet Minister in charge of deregulation, She dumped a deregulatory set of measures re EU laws which had passed the Commons which I and others had spent a lot of time on. She fully backed and defended carbon taxes and emissions trading which were upending steel and other important industries under her control. I sent her a long list of deregs from easy and popular to more difficult. She sat on them for months and then got a junior Minister to send me a civil service No letter to the whole lot. I also warned her not to tamper with employment rights, then in this election she seems to want to cut Maternity rights before backpedaling!
October 6, 2024
Lots of misspeaking from candidates. Interesting feedback about Kemi from John why dump measures agreed on and passed by the Commons, so her view trumped the Party. Oh dear. A shame because I like her fiestyness.
October 6, 2024
Not feisty against the Civil Service. The reverse.
October 6, 2024
The only one I can remember had a strange trip out to Barnard Castle.
October 6, 2024
Indeed
and to the reply:- but all four potentials are deluded net zero loons or at least are pretending to be. Is History Grad. Jenrick a potty, deluded net zero zealot or is he just lying so as to get to the last 2? Which is it JR? Has Jenrick really changed his politics or is he another dishonest Chameleon like Cameron?
October 6, 2024
Sir John, Thanks for information. As I regard Net Zero as the most economically damaging policy of any government I will listen closely to what each of the finally two say in relation to this issue. Depressingly, I am unsure that any will pass muster and will then consider reverting to Reform.
October 6, 2024
Informed insight Sir John – a rare thing these days. Thank you.
October 6, 2024
but now he feels free to name names and policies or lack of.
October 6, 2024
I agree she seems one confused person. Probably a Starmer type mess would ensue if she was anywhere near no. 10
October 6, 2024
Reply to Reply,
Very interesting report on Kemi’s ‘change of views’. The questions arise are, how enthusiastic was she when she took over the ‘deregulation mandate’? Did she really spend time and effort on trying to make it happen or was that all just a performance?
If she did try to carryout a thorough job, then who pressured her not to do it, and why?
Reply She vetoed all the good ideas
October 6, 2024
If the Tory leadership hopefuls had spoken out vigorously against what the Labour government has been doing, they would probably have had to reveal their own policy preferences. They might even have been tempted to stand up for this country’s national interests, who knows. Then they would have lost support among some of the Tory MPs who are going to be the voters in the leadership election. My sense is that the bulk of these characters are globalist-progressive in outlook (whether or not their electorates are). To be elected, the new Tory leader will have to tack in their direction, I believe.
October 6, 2024
It seems in the GBNew Boris interview this AM (after 9.30 I think) he is still proud of his vaccine roll out and even the Astra Zenica Oxford disaster rapidly with drawn by most countries and by the UK eventually. Clearly he either has not looked at the dire abundant stats worldwide or they are beyond him or he cannot face the truth that they did far more harm than good. Anyone youngish or who had had Covid never needed than anyway.
The things he got wrong:- Botched half Brexit, the lockdowns, the masks, the net harm vaccines, the vast covid loans and āsupportā, vastly high tax levels, trusting his Theatre Studies wife on the net zero lunacy.
October 6, 2024
Boris also failed to grasp the problem that the MHRA was funded and hugely compromised by Big Pharma an absurd conflict of interest. He chose duff experts who gave him duff vested interest advice. Boris has come round to the Lab Origins after gain of function but this was obvious very early on.
October 6, 2024
One of the panelists (following the Camilla Tomily interview) with respect to Mr Johnsons ‘Liberal’ views, commented that “You can be so open-minded, that your brain falls out!”
Has to be the ‘Quote of the Week’ for me! š
And No – I still don’t want him back!
October 6, 2024
I cannot vote for anyone who supports the net zero lunacy/scam or fraud.
October 6, 2024
Plus 66 million of us!
He wants to give USD a TRILLION to Zelensky who has totally and completely the war – but who has personally become a Billionaire – now there is a trick Churchill could not have pulled off.
October 6, 2024
+1 Lynn
October 6, 2024
The fact that the UK kept pushing the AZ vaccines long after the problems of Blood clots in combination with low platelet levels (thrombocytopenia) were observed is another huge scandal. Reported very early indeed from Japan I think.
October 6, 2024
I had the Astra Zeneca vaccine as did many others. The minute chance of side effects was an acceptable risk to me at the time. Certainly more so than taking gene therapy vaccines which made me feel under the weather for about two months.
The risk profile at the time of the roll out meant that using the vaccines was the right thing to do. 20 20 hindsight is easy.
Where they erred was in trying to make vaccination mandatory. Which kind of defined how they governed overall and softened the population up for this authoritarian Labour administration.
October 6, 2024
Also not, it was very clear even at the time of rollout that circs 80% of the population were at virtually zero risk (anyone healthy and under about 55 or who had already had covid) should never have had ew tech āvaccinesā even if the vaccines were safe, well tested and effective and they certainly were not. Even when the problems showed up quite early they kept jabbing in an act of gross negligence. Far more harm than good (if indeed any good at all).
October 6, 2024
It was not at all clear at the time of rollout that 80% were at zero risk from Covid.
Were you living in an internet/tv RADIO free cave?
All the media and friends talked about young fit people being admitted in a 50/50 risk of death FROM COVID. The hospitals were overrun in UK, whole villages in other countries who were denied the vaccine by the EU were infected and in a dire state.
As our late Queen remarked on a different matter ‘recollection varies’.
October 6, 2024
The age related risk was very clear, very early indeed & way before vaccines were being given to people under say 50. This is not recollections but well documented facts.
October 6, 2024
Given your early desire for enough ventilators for the whole population to be kept mothballed all the time I am not prepared to read your vaccine revisionism @LL
The issue was that the vaccines were virtually mandated not that they were rolled out speedily.
October 6, 2024
LL is quite correct, and back in March/April 2020 it was clear from the Diamond Princess that there was a press frenzy which was thoroughly out of step with the evidence which it provided.
Come the roll out of the vaccine I saw clearly that it was a disaster in the making, warp speed humbug.
Naturally, Iāve not had the vaccine nor have I had covid, same story for my wife too.
October 7, 2024
They KNEW before the first lockdown that Covid wasn’t dangerous for the vast majority (a mortality rate of 1% or less was expected) and they KNEW exactly who was vulnerable … the very elderly/frail and people who were already seriously unhealthy with co-morbidities.
That is why, 5 days before the first lockdown, the Government downgraded Covid from a High Consequence Infectious Disease. Here is the official statement:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
By the time the jabs were rolled out they KNEW that the mortality rate was even lower than 1%.
October 6, 2024
The risk was very real indeed and for most zero benefit even had the vaccines been safe & worked.
October 6, 2024
Boris seems now to at least half accept that the lockdowns were a mistake. Of course they were a mistake mate how could they not be:-
Positives, it may delay a few vulnerable people getting Covid allowing them to live for a few weeks or months longer (but in isolation) and it might help smooth out NHS demand for covid care slightly.
Negatives:- It delays millions of natural vaccinations for the young and healthy, thus extending the pandemic, it cost Ā£ billions, killed many other patients through delayed cancer and other treatments, damaged education, destroyed the economy and work ethicā¦
So positives about 1% negatives about 99% well done those deluded experts! Almost as wrong headed as the Net Zero āexpertsā.
Boris still boasting about the fastest roll out of the āvast net harmā Covid Vaccines coerced even into people with zero need of them (health, young and had had Covid already). This now overwhelmingly clear from the many stats. around the World.
October 6, 2024
Wokingham Social Services now having to deal with many children with mental ill-health and psychological problems as a result of lockdown. Previously the WHO had said that “the main effect of lockdown will be to make the poor poorer” so, inevitably, it would make the rich richer. There was a slight slowdown in the virus spreading, but the damage to poor people’s lives was extensive and small businesses were trashed with big business gratefully taking the trade. And still there are apologists for the flood of lies and corruption.
October 7, 2024
I was always a lockdown sceptic, still am. From a holistic health perspective they were a disaster.
But I think it’s unfair to blame Boris for lockdowns. Nearly every country in the world were doing the same thing to a greater or lesser extent. And MSM and nutters like Ferguson were screaming for the policy. And rumour has it that Macron threatened that he would close the border if we didn’t fall into line. At which point we would have all starved.
October 6, 2024
Interesting assessment based on fact not froth. Frankly the whole of the shadow cabinet has disappointed by their failure to,āgo for the throatā on Labourās obvious failings, culturally Sunak is not like that, so you have wasted all these months since the eoecyion.
Looking at the pathetic squabbling that has been going, denial about why you lost and an almost pathological refusal to accept Reform needs to be dealt with, not ignored, I have zero confidence in the future of the right.
It needs a reset and take out their commitment to PR and seek accommodation. A fractured right will always allow Labour in and the Lib Dems to pick up scraps.
October 6, 2024
It may be with the fractured right that PR is the only way that the Conservative party will ever get back in.
Which is why Labour won’t countenance it until they look like losing.
October 6, 2024
Nobody ever wins under PR. Have you not noticed?
October 6, 2024
Balanced representation – you prefer a 10% dictator!
October 6, 2024
There’s a leadership election for the Conservative party ? Who knew……….
How long does it take for heavens sake. While the Consevative party procrastinate. Two-tier Keir and Co. are getting away with their failure and fiddles.
For me it’s a two horse race; Jenrick or Badenoch. In the event either of them win. I would like to hope the loser is offered a cabinet position.
P.S. Tugendhat is my MP. Inspiring he ain’t
October 6, 2024
But are the Con socialist net zero loving MP about to nobble Kemi and deprive members voters of any real choice?
October 6, 2024
We will find out on Tuesday.
October 6, 2024
Kemi nobbled herself by betraying Brexit.
October 6, 2024
After all this time, still navel gazing, trying to present worthwhile candidates for Leadership and failing – the Party is still doomed, the ship heading for the graveyard of the rocks unaware that steering away is required.
Starmer and the rag tag must be thinking ‘do what we said we would – nothing in the way’.
October 6, 2024
James Cleverly is getting considerable positive exposure in the Conservative press for his leadership campaign.
Cleverly is a popular, middle of the road One Nation Tory who has shunned the divisive policies of the right, which were so decisively rejected by the electorate at the last election. A reserve army officer, he was one of the few cabinet ministers prepared to visit swing constituencies in support of Conservative candidates during the campaign. Many feel that he epitomises the “common sense” brand of Conservatism that the middle class usually espouse.
Cleverly recently wrote:- “For the Conservative Party to win the next election, we need to resell our conservative values, be the party of prosperity, and remake the argument for capitalism. We need to prioritise driving economic growth, not through high migration but through lower taxes and cutting regulation, and by giving working people a bigger stake in our society.”
Outstanding. The Party would do well to elect James as the new Leader
October 6, 2024
He has no chance in a members vote and he is being pushed so as they to give members no real choice. He is too dim for one thing, he makes even John Major lock competent.
October 6, 2024
āhospitality & management studiesā at Ealing College of Higher Education it seems.
October 6, 2024
1/3 of the vote, 20% of voters is hardly decisive? Only decisive due the huge split on the right and FPTP voting.
October 6, 2024
the Conservative Press being?
October 6, 2024
Would you highlight the “divisive policies of the right that were rejected by the electorate” please?
This was the most centre left Conservative party ever, even the Cameron Osborne iteration wanted a smaller state.
October 6, 2024
He’s almost as boring as Keir-Ching!
And his track record is as a Globalist, Net Zero-loving, LibCON. I can see the attraction for you ….. but not for the 4 million-and-rapidly-growing conservative voters who have switched to Reform.
October 6, 2024
Well said Donna, Cleverly — no not never
October 6, 2024
The Conservative Party is on the verge of extinction as a significant Party that can challenge for power because:
-No Leader has ever left it weaker or in a worse mess than Sunak
– Most Conservative M.P.s are worse than useless, lack realistic political judgement and would be incapable of even holding their seats against any serious local challenge
– About two thirds of the electorate would not vote Conservative at the the next General Election without very compelling reason to do so because of the mess Sunak made of being in government
The next Leader must provide the vision, inspiration and compelling reason to vote Conservative to save it from extinction and wrest power from Labour at the next election. A mediocre Leader which the Conservatives could previously get away with when the Liberal Democrats and Reform were not posing an existential threat to them is no longer survivable.
So far as I can see none of the 4 candidates are better than mediocre, if even that. Boris Johnson would probably be good enough but I can’t see him putting up with a long period as leader of the Opposition when he now has a wealthier and easier life elsewhere. The only remaining M.P. who might be good enough is Suella Braverman, some (but not yet all) of whose analysis immediately after the election, that the Conservative Party risks extinction and that it must apologise for past mistakes and past broken promises are belatedly being taken up by some of the candidates.They still haven’t realised the rest of her analysis that they need an accommodation with Reform and they need real leadership rather than platitudes about unity is correct. I think she would be the only hope for saving the Conservative Party.
October 6, 2024
excellent points well made.
October 6, 2024
Oh I don’t know. Sir John Major had a good stab at it š
The problem for the Parliamentary Tory Party is, there is so few now, of at least creditable talent, and not to mention truly Right Wings beliefs to choose from.
And as for voting for them ? Why bother with Blue Labour when you can, despite being so thoroughly vile, have the real thing.
Have we not learnt anything from the last 14 years of Continuity Blairism ?
October 6, 2024
the only conclusion we are left with is : Same again no chance, Labour already living up to the horrors, Greens as deranged as always, see a problem throw paint at it, LibDems we have had enough of funny clowns, seems to leave Monster Raving or Reform.
October 6, 2024
Sir John, your first paragraph sets out the rights of Opposition in Parliament. They are available already but us, the electorate, seem starved of information. Is that due to media starving, or lack of using the opportunities available? It is as if a cabal is in place. Some democracy, eh?
Reply The main reason is Parliament has been on holiday for most of the time since the election so the official Opposition loses its privileged platform. That however should not stop these Shadow Cabinet members trying bombard the media and social media. It needs a majority of MPs to get Parliament recalled.
October 6, 2024
So are they bombarding media, or does Media consider there is no story to sell?
Reply Why do you not read what I write? I was pointing out 3 of the candidates who are in the Shadow Cabinet are not bombarding the media about government failings in their areas!
October 6, 2024
Sir John, your piece highlights that there is nothing published, that does not mean that the media is not getting the information does it? You, yourself have written in the past that if an MP doesn’t follow the media’s narrative they are not invited to take part.
Reply I have not seen anything. The art of opposition is getting into the news.The art of surviving in government is staying out of it. Most news is negative about Ministers and government.
October 6, 2024
They can use social media, they donāt use it effectively. Cleverly has gone into hiding on X because of his involvement in the giving away of the Chagos Islands.
October 6, 2024
973 boat people yesterday so Starmas smash the gangs is going well. Several death too the more you encourage them Starmer the more will come and the more will die. Not very hard to grasp this is it. Evette Cooper blames the gangs who funds these gangs but the migrants, who encourages the migrants this appalling Labour Government. On whose hands is the blood.
The only deterrent Labour have is to let so many come so that the UK will eventually become so unattractive they will finally stop. A great deterrent plan by two tier, free gear Kier.
October 6, 2024
“The art of opposition is getting into the news.The art of surviving in government is staying out of it.”
Excellent advice Sir John – amazing how both sides of this coin seem intent on ignoring it..
October 6, 2024
And it now seems someone has decided to remove the Grey from the Fray
October 6, 2024
Lib Dem Alert!
Strange looking people with yellow badges gathered on the corner of our road this afternoon. After the obligatory photo shoot by the road sign (yes, your publicity hungry successor was present Sir John) they made their way down the road knocking on doors. They were checking their mobiles as they went but (strangely) no one called on us. This may indicate that their local database is pretty good, especially given the ear-bashing my wife gave Mr Jones the last time he knocked on our door. I can’t say I blame him, I wouldn’t have come back either! š
October 6, 2024
Now there is yet another little pearl. Thank you JR.
October 6, 2024
reply to reply again,….I read what you write regularly and sometimes you delay reply publishing, possibly, it might offend without intent.
I hope Opposition will amount to more than 3 candidates you rubbish.
October 6, 2024
Sir John
None of them inspire. If as they are, the only choice available there has to be another leadership election before the GE. None of them appear to know what it is to be a Conservative; they might have fared better alongside Ed Davey.
One of your suggestions wears his religious badge front and center, understandable itās a family thing. But that also makes him divisive and less appealing to the majority whom are at best neutral. His comments on the UK Armed forces where uncalled for, out of touch and damaging to people who put their life on the line for this Country. Disloyalty writ large ā should anyone trust him?
Then we have the guy who āserved in the armyā you know. Yet is undecided as to whether he is French or British as he holds joint citizenship; his wife even works in a senior position for Macronās Government. He is unsure himself as to where his loyalties are, so we should also question those loyalties.
Kemi appears to talk a good talk, but on the face of it isnāt coordinated with action.
James Cleverly, more in the shadows as far as general public awareness goes. Then we realize this week he is the one that instigated the handing over of BIOT. Particularly galling when there was no basis for it, let alone a discussion. The people of those Islands were not consulted and it looks like wonāt be allowed back.
All four have a major flaw as collective responsible individuals in Cabinet of the failed administration so they own the failings of the last administration, they are the continuity of failure. Which is why whichever one is chosen for there to be a return to Conservativism and a Conservative Government there will need to be another leadership contest ā the sooner the better.
October 6, 2024
From today’s Telegraph.
Polling by Opinium found that 32 per cent of the population believed that Mr Cleverly was the most āpreferred or acceptable optionā.
But it was Mr Jenrick who was considered the most unacceptable Conservative leader among all voters.
As always the political shuffling of the party organisers and the Parliamentary Group will shut down choice, get comfortable with the status quo and then wonder why it has still gone all wrong
October 6, 2024
I never listen to opinion polls, they cannot be trusted as someone has paid them . probably to give the answer they want!
October 6, 2024
Who cares.
The Tories delivered our freedoms, our culture and our people into the arms of the Marxists and the fascist Left because they loathed being slandered as racists. That’s it, it is that simple. The sniveling rat that is Cameron, this weasel, this snake fell to his knees and paid homage to the left’s cultural and demographic agenda.
It’s finished. The nation is lost. We can all see it. Starmer will drive the final nails into the coffin over the next 5 five years
The Tory party will now never declare open war against Labour’s Socialist leviathan (party, institutions, unions, public sector, activists, NGO’s, BBC etc etc etc etc etc etc and bloody etc) but will simply hop on board as an act of self protection
October 6, 2024
Well Dom, the people out here care. The problem being who represents us? Gradually C.Central Office starved the Party in power of anybody who resembled a Conservative. Ducking issues, the slippery slope gave in to the pathetic socialist and EU nipple sucking feeding. The ‘reset’ visit of Starmer couldn’t be clearer.
Assisted dying is topical…..politics too!
October 6, 2024
Dom, have you noticed that none of the candidates have a opinion on the Northern Ireland agreement, nor the UK/EU trade & coop agreement
October 6, 2024
Thank you, I have been scrolling down and this is the first mention of Northern Ireland. Previously:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2024/10/03/do-not-accept-a-commission-deal-to-re-set-the-u-k-relationship-with-the-eu/#comment-1477443
“… it seems that Starmer has no negotiating objective relating to the position of Northern Ireland …”
and nor do any of the remaining Tory leadership candidates have any interest in the fate of the province.
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/editorial-it-is-a-bad-sign-that-conservative-leadership-hopefuls-ignored-northern-ireland-event-4806118
“Editorial: It is a bad sign that Conservative leadership hopefuls ignored Northern Ireland event”
October 6, 2024
How can the Conservatives be an effective opposition when they, in many cases, instigated the very policies Labour are delivering. The only opposition we will see over the next 5 years will be from the Reform party.
October 6, 2024
I am very grateful for the summary of your thoughts and views of the candidates Sir John.
Personally, I definitely agree Robert Jenrick should be in the final two for all the reasons you mention and also because I feel he is generally the most gifted individual who has the best policies for the country.
I would just like to add that I feel sometimes some in the Conservative Party are concerned its traditional principles (which include sound economy, economic growth, law and order, fairness, strong defence, freedom and family etc) might not appeal to future generations.
The mistake there is they may not appeal to the youth just yet but when they get older and when they are faced with the financial and competitive pressures of life, work and running a business they see why those principles are so essential and needed. We all know this is the case but importantly I see it in the late 20ās and 30ās generation today too. Nothing has fundamentally changed.
I can also confirm anecdotally they want lower taxes, economic opportunities and safety for their future families here in the UK which they see in particular countries abroad. How very Conservative.
October 6, 2024
Yes, but these questions of his Ā£75,000 donation from a company that doesnāt trade is odd. It is tainting him.
October 6, 2024
The next Tory PM is still at school.
October 6, 2024
Since you can’t believe a word any of them say (and that’s before they become compromised by the inevitable need to pander to the majority LibCON/One Nation caucus) I am ignoring their pitches and looking at their history.
Tugendhat: Globalist. One Nation Wet. Establishment through and through. Half French; married to a French woman. Pro EU. Won’t stand up for British interests.
Cleverly: Globalist LibCON. Pro EU. WEF/Net Zero enthusiast. From the WEF website: “There is a growing sense that the institutions of the world today, whether the World Bank, IMF or COP, are not representing developing countries. The UKās Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, drew attention to this when he recently called for the reform of the UN Security Council to give the Global South greater representation. He warned of the very real risk that excluding developing nations poses in terms of provoking them to walk away from the global trading system.”
Badenoch: Presumably WEF-approved since her attendance at Davos last year. Refused to repeal EU laws. Gove’s “creature.” Entirely untrustworthy, just like Gove.
Jenrick: Has a “dubious” past (Covid hypocrite and planning/development scandal). Has moved Right since his period in the Home Office and resigned over Sunak’s lax attitude to immigration. Talks the talk now; said no merger with Reform but (interestingly has recently changed his tune on a deal). Best of a second-rate bunch. But then virtually all the Party’s MPs are now second rate or worse.
October 6, 2024
James Cleverley is the more accomplished politician of the four. He would move the Conservatives further to the centre and become Starmer-like in his ability to say nothing for four and half years in the hope that the government implodes and his party wins by default. Starmer has shown this is an effective way to oppose and get into power, an 80 majority or a 160 majority is the same opposing mechanism.
Jenrick, like Farage has made immigration his calling card and so is too easy to paint as a bigot which means to those whose doctrine is that immigration is good and kind will never listen to him and just write him off as they do with Farage.
Badenoch is also too easy to write off as a bigot, this is why Braverman and Patel did not run because their views are considered distasteful (incorrectly) but the political and media classes line up against them even though they themselves identify as minorities. Just the wrong type.
Tugenhat – who? Is the best I can say about him.
I see Jenrick winning but then being deposed by the Parliamentary party just as Liz Truss was leaving the minority candidate, Cleverley (another minority rejected by the membership) to be crowned
October 6, 2024
When Kemi Badenoch was seeking the leadership on the previous occasion, she denounced Net Zero as unilateral economic suicide, and gave every impression that she would seek to roll it back. This time around, save for the odd token criticism of HMG’s green lunacy, she has pledged nothing of the kind. Who or what got to her? Of course she is no different in this respect to any of the other three; they all give the impression that they would happily see the UK continue down the road to Net Zero’s dystopia, albeit at a slower pace than Labour.
And here we all were, hoping that at some point in the future there might just be a majority in Parliament mandated to have Ed Miliband’s Climate Change Act repealed…
October 6, 2024
She thought that going against this Net Zero lunacy might have helped her chances. It didn’t ! So she has dropped it as she now realises that more of her parliamentary colleages like it and it will help her chances this time aroung.
As Groucho Marx said; “Here are my principles. If you do not like them I have another set” Or words to that effect.
October 6, 2024
“Who or what got to her?”
I’m sure it was explained to her during her trip to Davos last year that opposing the Net Zero lunacy would be “unwise.”
October 6, 2024
Donna …nail on head with a great big hammer.
October 6, 2024
Appealing to voters aged 40.
In order to tackle the above I believe that we should recognise that the UK’s current model of representative democracy is not functioning satisfactorily for voters of all ages. I believe that any political party could solve this challenge by introducing direct democracy (along Swiss lines) at a party level – Technology would enable implementation to be relatively straightforward – trying to do this via legislation (rather than at a party level) would take forever. Feedback which I have had (not statistically valid) from <40 year olds is that they would be attracted to a political party which adopted this approach.
October 6, 2024
The Tories have not done so well in electing a real leader supported by the majority lately — whoever gets elected now will define the Tory party for years to come.
Will they make a decision to follow the ways of the old Tory party, or will they attempt to change their ways?
Somehow I fear that even if a right of centre candidate is elected, the political establishment will disown and un-crown him in a very short time.
The issue is not which candidate is voted in, rather it is a question of the state of the elite core of the party – What will they allow to happen?
It would be nice to see a Tory leader rise that didn’t flirt with labour to see who could be more left wing. One that followed conservative values and one that could bring the party and country back from the brink.
We have been here before – will this election be any different?
October 6, 2024
Sir John, as ever a rational overview of the runners and riders. I would simply add this. Deciding who should be the deck chair monitor after the ship has already hit the ice berg will not alter the direction of travel…..
The decision taken by the captain to pursue at full speed the most dangerous and risky course in pursuit of the prized ‘Blue Ribbon’ has virtue signalled the Party to a timely Net Zero demise.
It should never have been like this.
The people and the members of the Tory party advised HQ continuously, telling them the right course to take post the Brexit Vote, post the Climate Change Act lunacy of Ed Miliband in 2008 but no one listened. Theresa May was so contemptuous of Party members she even appended the Net Zero commitment requirements to the Climate Change Act? All done without debate or vote in the HoC. That is how disconnected from rational policies demanded by the members the Tory Westminster Party had become.
The rest as they say is history.
October 6, 2024
Which candidate would 100% leave the ECHRs from day one of being elected into government, and state clearly the same in their manifesto, and ensure that all fellow MPs are supportive or lose the whip
Not the current, āweāll plan for it. weāll review the situation, weāll demand reformā etc etc
October 6, 2024
Quite why Camilla Tominey gave Johnson an hour to publicise his latest book is beyond me.
He has learned virtually nothing from the Covid Tyranny and absolutely nothing from the appalling consequences of the gene therapies. She didn’t ask him a single question about the Net Zero madness.
He’s obviously on a “rehabilitation” mission, so perhaps the gossip about him hoping to replace whoever is chosen as, in his eyes, interim Party Leader, is true.
October 6, 2024
After the fiasco of his chaotic, serially promise-breaking leadership (for which partygate is merely a smokescreen) Johnson will have to wait until everyone alive today has died before getting another go at higher politics.
October 6, 2024
James Cleverly is now mired in this giving away of the Chagos Islands.
Robert Jenrick has a cloud over him about donations to his campaign from an unclear source.
Kemi Badenhock – an interesting review from John about personally stopping a repeal of EU regulations already agreed by the commons! She also misspeaks a lot although a feisty and effective politician.
Tugenhat – pro EU he is the other side of the coin to Reform, the Lib Dem masquerading as a Tory. I donāt want him to lead the Conservative Party, Iām not a member so have no say, but I do think he will get the job because there are more masquerading Lib Demās in the Tory party right now than true conservatives. I think this will press MPs like Patel, Braverman to join Reform as I donāt think he can hold the right wing together.
If Tugenhat wins the leadership and wonāt do a deal with Reform weāre going to be stuck with Labour and that makes me worry for my retirement and yours because reading the Education secretaries words and Rayner means the politics of envy are growing stronger by the day, other than for their own self-serving interests of course free parties, free energy enough Ā£Ā£Ā£ for their two homes, free clothes and shoes, free apartment holidays. Us Labours are in control now levelling down has commenced.
Reply Tugendhat will not win
October 6, 2024
A-Tracy : Tugendhat is not only pro EU but also holds a French passport and his wife is a senior French civil servant. We could keep no secrets from the French.
October 7, 2024
I agree OR, thatās why I think the heads of the Tory party and the Wets want him to conjoin us to the EU project they bitterly regret us leaving and want realignment (the people who donāt want the members having a vote).
October 6, 2024
At least Jenrick had the guts to resign, but l think the rump Conservative Parliamentary party showed its colours when it ejected Priti Patel in the first round.
October 6, 2024
Gray gone, authoritarian lover Josef McSweeney now Chief of Neo-Marxist Propaganda.
This McSweeney character is intimately involved with the poisonous HNH and the campaign to direct advertising revenues away from media companies that refuse to tow the progressive line (GB News, Talk etc).
The Tories should be standing with the people and their fight for freedom rather than Labour and the loathsome McSweeney
October 6, 2024
I would agree save for the fact that Mr Jenrick voted to Remain in the EU in 2016. A clear indication that he would not put Britain and the British, first. We really do want our country back.
So, I’ll stay with Reform because the existing but biased FPTP 2-3 Party system is too corrupted to provide a different government that thinks more of the British people than it does of foreigners.
October 6, 2024
Even if Jenrick emerges as the winner, the so-called ‘One-Nation’ Tory MPs have form when it comes to swiftly disposing of genuinely Conservative leaders who have been elected against their lordly wishes. For details see Margaret Thatcher, Iain Duncan-Smith, and Liz Truss.
The country will never want to vote Tory again, because by the time of the next election the Tories will have another useless leader. Sitting in permanent opposition will not cause the Tufton Buftons any grief: they actually prefer it, for personal reasons.
October 6, 2024
It doesnāt matter who wins the Conservative leadership. The party is not capable of being an effective opposition whilst it still believes in the Marxist policies of open borders and the CAGW delusion. Opposition will have to come from elsewhere.
October 6, 2024
All going well…. Today it is reported. A total of 973 migrants in 17 boats reached the UK, beating the previous record for 2024
October 6, 2024
Didn’t that chap Starmer insist ‘we’ll deal with the boats’?
October 6, 2024
John,
None of the four don’t seem to be good enough, not too me, any way!
I thought P Patel is the only one StatesWoman like, so I got that wrong! But, even she would need a team around her!
From here I am reliant on you’re opinion, and this site! There isn’t any one else Free Marketees can follow!
Best of luck!
RDM.
October 8, 2024
If James Cleverly gets in, then that would mean a Left to Center Politician in control of the Conservative Party. and given the MP’s elected him, what does that say’s about the direction of travel?
For me, all we are left with is Robert Jenrick? He say’s the right things, but doesn’t seem to understand what it is he is talking about, and why People want change!
I might be too critical, but, at this time, I would like some clarity!
Things like;
A Model of understanding, in terms of the Economy; (Meaning a Free Market Model) as a basis for answering questions!
Cultural change, moving to an Enterprise Cultural, Opportunity, and Growth, via Individual Wealth Generation!
Priority’s? At this time;
Economic reform! Tax Cuts aimed at increasing Business Activity, Reform, Deregulation, reform IR35, support for the self employed, …
MOD spending increase, and on what?
Building Housing, including social housing? Planning Reform?
Public Sector Productivity reform?
Migration; Removing all benefits given to migrates that have not been here less then 4 years!
Repeal ECHR if necessary!
Find some where to take all migrates for the time it takes to process them. North Africa? Open a Military base, for training of troop’s and Armour!, A Run Way? Naval base? That includes tents/sheds for applicants!
so on,…
October 6, 2024
973 irregular immigrants arrived in the UK yesterday from the safe country of France
October 6, 2024
The only candidate worth considering is Jenrick. None of the others will do anything to attract back the voters lost to Reform. But then Jenrick has not got sufficient decent centre or right-of-centre MPs to do that job anyway.
I suspect that the party already has private polling information on how many additional voters like me, that they have lost since the General Election. I suspect it makes truly shocking reading.
Given the absolutely dire start made by Starmer and Co and the resignation of Gray today, I cannot see Starmer surviving for anything like a full term as PM. It is equally obvious that the Conservative leadership contest has been far too dragged out and they are totally unable to provide any kind of credible opposition. They should be kicking at an open door. I suspect that Nigel Farage and Co will do a better job of providing opposition in the House of Commons. What a pity the FPTP system was/is so skewed against them.
But maybe not by 2029. It all depends on how many more voters switch over to Reform between now July and the next election. Hopefully that will shock the arrogant and complacent Conservative Party into offering a deal.
October 6, 2024
It hardly seems worthwhile spending time speculating about this because the next time the Conservatives have a chance at government may be in ten or fifteen years time and by then there may not even be a Conservative party anymore – it may have morphed into something different and certainly with new leadership – and with people we are not even aware of yet
October 6, 2024
and now for something completely different.
One of Starmer’s mates – that loony son of a commendable bus driver:
More than 40 businesses have signed an open letter to ask the Mayor of London ( Sadiq Khan) to extend the congestion charge exemption for electric vans. Their special status means they currently pay nothing – but from Christmas the charge would be Ā£15 a day (same as diesels).
Signatories, including Ocado, the AA and the Federation of Small Businesses, argue the charge – which would add up to Ā£5,500 per vehicle per year – would undermine firms who had “taken on debt to invest in the air we breathe”.
City Hall said it was working with Transport for London to “see what more could be done to mitigate the effect of this phasing out and further incentivise businesses to make the switch to cleaner vehicles”.
Supporters of the exemption have said waiving the fees for electric vehicles played “a fundamental role” in easing the cost of investing in environmentally friendly fleets and the prospect of it ending left them “deeply troubled”.
October 6, 2024
Engineer dismantles concept of flywheels.
The biggest flywheel in the world in the USA cost $66 million in subsidies and produced 0.25 megawatts per hour.
The amount of electricity produced by this fly wheel can power UK national grid for 1/200th of a second.
The idea of a flywheel is an utter nonsense.
https://youtu.be/UIH5NUkJ-TA?feature=shared
October 7, 2024
Recent polling by YouGov found a string of negative opinions about the Tory party. Divided, out for themselves, not competent, dishonest, same as the rest… it is surely not possible to lead such a rabble. They need to split, or at least decide which bits they are going to throw away. If they opt to continue in the Uniparty mould, but be honest about it, they face a lot of competition, albeit the Labour party seems to be emulating incompetence to excess. If they aim to return to Conservatism that brought previous success there will need to be many cast changes. Without a clearout it cannot succeed. With one it may be possible to unite with Reform. Otherwise, the clear direction and high internal unity within Reform will see them overtake Conservatives.