Remain wrongly forecast a hit to U.K. exports of goods and services when we left the EU. They said the hit would be up to a 15% decline, which would mean a 4% loss of GDP. Â They still use this in their commentaries on Brexit and it was baked into OBR forecasts. Whilst saying this could take 15 years to complete, they thought the bulk of the loss would happen quite soon after Brexit.
So what happened? U.K. goods trade continued to grow with the EU after we left, and grew faster with the rest of the world as it had been doing when we were a member. Services trade boomed in the years after we left. Time for apologies and red faces?
Apparently not so. Most keep reporting a bad forecast as a fact. Maybe they havenât checked the data. One study earlier this year sought to dig Remainers out of their gloomy hole by arguing that whilst trade had gone up and not down it should have gone up more so we should still not a theoretical loss against these recently inflated expectations!
All this becomes relevant as President Trump threatens the rest of the world with tariffs designed to cut exports into the USA. The USA is the UKâs biggest trade partner by far, and we have a good growing trade with a U.K. surplus. It is good news we are out of the EU and can do our own trade deal with the US. The government should be proposing a trade deal to Mt Trump and should be using its Brexit freedoms to avoid the likely tariff war the EU seems to be planning. We should start by announcing we will not copy the EU carbon based tariffs they are bringing in against the US and others.
Facts4eu have published some excellent tables and graphs setting out the U.K. trade success post Brexit.
November 13, 2024
Good morning.
The biggest damage done to the UK economy was COVID, not BREXIT. But you do not hear much about that.
Hmm. Not too sure about either to be honest. We still follow all EU Regulations and, this government like many before it is only too keen to drag its heals on this issue. There seems to be a reluctance to ‘diverge’ away from the EU as much as possible. I wounder why ? đ
November 13, 2024
Not Covid itself but the absurd over reaction to Covid and the vast waste of money on Net Harm lockdowns, masks, test and trace apps, PPE fraud, Covid loans & grants, the vast borrowings and QE. Errors by Boris, Sunak, Handcock, the Big Pharma funded MHRA and all the largely deluded duff government âexpertsâ.
How is Van Tam getting on at Moderna amd is Sunak quite absurdly claiming the vaccines were safe?
November 13, 2024
Remainers are like the Net Zero fanatics, possibly the same people
They don’t do facts just hypothesis.
If we get tariff free trade with the USA it will be down to Farage and his relationship with Trump. It will be interesting to see 2TK squirm if offered tariff free trade when he really wants to cosy up to Brussels.
Of course he will put the interests of the country last because he hates us.
November 13, 2024
But will Trump want to do a trade deal with the UK now that it is governed by Starmer’s doctrinaire Labour party? From the US perspective, the UK is on a path to the destruction of much of its farming and business capacity through a combination of high taxation and regulation to promote net zero plus the highest electricity prices in any western economy. It is notable that in a recent Bloomberg discussion the UK was not mentioned as a country to support the rapid expansion of the next generation of data centres needed to support AI LLMs, whereas France, Nordic countries, Canada and Australia were. Politically a Trump led USA and a Starmer led UK could not be much further apart.
November 13, 2024
Trade was just an arguement for not leaving. Remainers attachment to the EU was much more fundamental, a desire to be part of what they saw as a socialist ideal. Being part of it gave them a sense of achievement and purpose as they had lost faith in the UK as a viable entity. They are essentially losers, the opponents of the creative . The enemies of the self employed, the theorists in almost any subject. There is not a Francis Drake amongst them. While I can sympathise with the founding fathers who fought and survived WW2, thinking that a united europe would cancel european wars. I suspect they did not take into account human political behaviour that is essentially selfish. You cannot create a monastry out of the whole population.
Unity and singular purpose can be achieved as we see in the USA, but the founding fathers need to be great visionaries witb excetional faith in people living within a constitution. Ours never have been, being wedded to power and scant democracy.
November 13, 2024
Indeed, but a great Shame Boris and Sunak pathetically failed to even attempt to get a real Brexit and to take full advantage of it. Even sticking to the net zero lunacy. As is that moronic Robotic Starmer at COP 29. Making even more absurd CO2 pledges. Sunak and Miliband are both deluded morons. Or they do actually want to destroy the UK economy and render it unable to compete.
This too truly appalling.
Allison Pearson
My visit from police on Remembrance Sunday is living proof of our two-tier justice system
A knock on the door to be accused of a non-crime hate incident from a year-old tweet is not what people fought and died for in the war.
They would not even say which tweet it was.
November 13, 2024
I (obviously) cannot say whether the assertions made by Mr. Redwood, based on Facts4EUâs charts and tables, are accurate – in the sense that Facts4EUâs web site suggests a not entirely impartial organisation.
But what about vice versa? Did the EUâs goods exports to us âcontinue to growâ after Brexit? Did Brexit, in effect, make little difference. Iâd like to see facts and figures from someone a little less invested in Brexit. Why? Because I am as committed a Brexiteer as the next man and, quite seriously, Brexit nearly caused a divorce here. I want to be able to show my wife facts and figures about our trade post Brexit but, if I referenced Facts4EUâs figures, she would laugh and say âtheyâre hardly impartial – and I couldnât really argue with that.
Reply The figures are taken from official published data
November 13, 2024
Increased trade without governments since 2016 really trying to increase it! Imagine what would have happened under a proper Conservative gov!
Well now we have the choice over the next few years. They can either work with Trump or against him. Had the Tories been in Government, there would be a lot of mealy mouthed pandering to both the EU and Trump. Of course, we will get the same from Labour now, but there is a chance for the Tories to actually follow Reform for once to embrace a reduction in spending. lower taxes and so on. Labour can never do that. They have set their direction to higher taxes and spending.
November 13, 2024
Global CO2 emissions reached a new high last year.
Trump is going to expose the hoax of the mad war on net good CO2 tree food. Great!
Miliband asked if it is a hoax says âit is definitely happening look at Spain, one 40C day in the UK a couple of years back and at the USâ. That seems to be the best he can come up with? We have had worse floods and much hotter weather in the past mate, plus we do now have more urban heat islands effects as more concrete.
Grow up you very silly deluded PPE graduate. You plans are insane and will not indeed cannot realistically happen.
November 13, 2024
That is very encouraging for the UK and vindicates our decision to leave. I do believe the UK is in a better position on its own not least because we now see the EU and Germany in particular with big problems and potential trade wars with China and the US. The UK no being out of the EU can avoid these negative impacts. Being out makes us so much more adaptable and competitive.
November 13, 2024
Trade was only one of the imaginary downsides of Brexit spouted by Cameron and co. The Remainiacs have never admitted their exaggerated lies, so don’t expect them to to praise Brexit successes.
November 13, 2024
The second Trump presidency ought to be seen as an opportunity rather than as a threat. If only we had a government able to grasp all that might be possible rather than one with a Chancellor who says she intends to “fight” any Trump tariffs.
Brexit still needs to be sold as a concept, not least to its buyers. The information you provide today ought to be part of a huge effort to show people the UK has done itself a huge favour by unshackling from the Evil Empire.
November 13, 2024
Yes. Just to summarise, in 2019 just before Brexit came into force our total exports (goods + services) to the EU were ÂŁ299bn. In 2023 they were ÂŁ356bn. 356 is a bigger number than 299.
You would assume Starmer will want to stay aligned with the EU in opposition to Trump but maybe not – so far he has not committed to duplicate their proposed 45% tariffs on Chinese EV imports (which incidentally proves that the EU aren’t really interested in the climate “crisis” because otherwise they would welcome enhanced takeup of cheap EVs). And of course he has imposed VAT on school fees which is banned in the EU. So maybe he will be sensible on a USA FTA although his party is stuffed with chlorinated chicken alarmists.