There is general agreement amongst the commentariat that the Chancellor faces a big bill this autumn to make the numbers add up. There are spending cuts that Parliament will not accept, particularly in welfare and the pensioner fuel allowance, There will be changes from the OBR probably having to cut its forecasts of productivity growth and GDP growth. There could be cuts to forecast revenues as the reality of rich people leaving hits home. Here are the questions the Chancellor needs to answer and issues she needs to tackle.
1. How much is the extra cost of pensioner fuel grant?
2. How much is the extra cost of disability benefits?
3. What reduction needs to be made in public sector productivity forecasts, and how more does that add to public service costs?
4. How much slower will UK growth be and what does that add to the deficit?5. How much is added to spending to handle record levels of illegal migrants, including hotels, legal costs and benefits?
6. How much is the steel industry losing and how much money will the government need to give it to keep making steel?
7. What are the current additional losses and costs of the nationalised railway and HS 2?
8. How much extra is going to be given to France to secure a new border deal?
9. How much money will be given to Mauritius to take Chagos in the early years of the deal?
All this probably adds up to a new bigger black hole than the £22 bn the Chancellor claimed to fix with the last budget.
July 9, 2025
Good morning.
Some good questions there, Sir John. And one you could add is – “How much more are we going to give Ukraine to fight a needless war ?”
Almost makes you want to cry, doesn’t it ?
July 9, 2025
And how much more are we going to spend on pointless Net Zero?
I am tearing up just thinking about it.
July 9, 2025
Is there any point in fighting this dreadful war in such a half hearted way. You either have serios chance of winning and the west are trying to win with every sinew or they are not it is clearly the latter?
July 9, 2025
Oh no! It’s the former – but they have been beaten.
July 9, 2025
It’s not a needless war. All the time Ukraine holds the line it’s preventing the Russian Army sweeping through with rape and pillage.
EU still buying Russian oil and gas I believe, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we are too, albeit via indirect means.
Ukraine is doing a great job degrading Russia’s offensive capability, a country that’s shown nothing but hostility towards us since Putin came to power.
July 9, 2025
On heat-pumps Emma Pinchbeck makes the point that they only work efficiently with a lot of extra insulation and larger uglier and tepid rads. But extra insulation obviously saves whatever heating system you use, but very often it costs more than it ever saves in energy especially when using cheaper fossil fuel heating. Plus it can cause other issues, steamed up double glazed windows, damp issues, listed building and conservation area issues… Plus electricity is 3+ times the price of Gas. She also ignores the huge problem of the vast extra winter only demand for electricity on a few very cold day if we all switch to heat pumps and EV. Or perhaps has not even realised this! Plus we have the slow to heat up so has to be left on when out this wasting more electricity.
July 9, 2025
Tax revenues are going to be nowhere near what our illustrious tea lady expects.
With crayons job destruction bill goung through parliament and the chancellors ill thought out tax raids in the rich, people will vote with their feet.
Every day it seems another favoured foreign country is to be given a hand out from our taxes.
It can only be a matter of time before this government implodes due to its rank stupidity and incompetence. Thank goodness.
July 9, 2025
Crayons is an interesting spell check change for Angela Rayner. AI goes Freudian.
July 9, 2025
I read that the OBR’s latest report is something of a Damascene Conversion; even they are now saying Net Zero costs and effects are not properly costed and will be far higher, plus the war preparation costs, more migrant costs and of course Tariffs, plus the unknown handouts to foreign governments. There’s a lot more reason to be tearful. She can’t last long.
July 9, 2025
So Macron wants a new ‘entente cordiale’ with us to preserve the status quo of European culture and continental structure. What this means is he wants us to contribute to his proposals, to shore him up and keep him relevant in the EU hierarchy. No doubt 2TK thinks this is a grand idea.
One can imagine our two economies as a pair of drunks with not enough money in their pockets to buy a drink, staggering, arm-in-arm, down the street arguing about who will buy the next round.
July 9, 2025
Perhaps Mr Unequivocally wrong Sunak should look into Miscarriages after mRNA vaccines in Israel (circa 45% up in the vaccinated while pregnant) another brick in the damning evidence on mRNA vaccines. See Dr John Campbell videos.
July 9, 2025
I would add to the list:
How much is the UK going to keep spending on the folly of net zero?
Why does the UK keep spending billions on foreign aid when we are already looking after so many illegal-migrant-foreigners in our own country?
Why are we still supporting Ukraine in a war that no one seems to want to bring to an end?
July 9, 2025
No wonder she was crying on the front bench !
This government, 2TK and Theeves are a busted flush after 12 months in office.
With their performance, Liz Trust lools like a saint – she certainly should not have been ousted by Bailey and his city friends.
Bailey has gone strangely quiet, presumably out of embarrassment!
Can they hold the line on the two-child benefit cap? I very much doubt it. With the Marxists now on the back benches firmly in the driving seat, a wealth tax looks inevitable. That will cause another flood of people to sell up and move abroad.
July 9, 2025
I have utter contempt for both Bailey, Carney, the whole of the Labour Party, Green Party, Libdim Party, Plaid MPs and 90% of the current Tory MPs and about 90% of the Lords too. Plus the whole of the climate Change Committee. See the recent you tube video with Emma Pinchbeck the rest is politics no sensible questioning of the Classics graduate needless to say! But she displays her energy ignorance for all to see.
July 9, 2025
Labour is deliberately destroying the economy and deliberately humiliating the UK at every possible opportunity.
They want us bankrupt and demoralised so that when the IMF is called in and tells us that the terms for a bailout will be rejoining the EU and ditching Sterling for the Euro, we will have no choice but to comply.
Everything they are doing is deliberate.
July 9, 2025
Reform will just tell the EU that when they come into power, any agreement the Labour government makes with them will be reneged on, and no compensation.
We can’t rejoin the EU anyway, Maastricht rules require debt to GDP ratio no more than 60% – them’s the rules.
July 10, 2025
The EU breaks “the Rules” whenever it suits them.
I sincerely hope Reform cancels Two-Tier’s EU reset and we get the real Brexit we voted for. But the next few years are going to be very dangerous.
July 9, 2025
In the scheme of things the Chagos deal is small beer, but scrapping it would help. A big step would be to repeal the Climate Change Act and sack every person in the public sector who is working on climate change and DEI.
July 9, 2025
All the small beer items add up.
We don’t necessarily need big initiatives (although scrapping the net zero transfer of wealth would help) we just need to get control of many small beer expenditures.
Pooh-poohed as salami slicing by those who wish to prevent it happening, it is actually good housekeeping.
July 9, 2025
Afraid no government has got any sort of grip on our Countries finances since 1997.
The last Labour Government left a note saying all of the money had run out in 2010, hence the so called need for the austerity of many years afterwards.
Unfortunately the Conservatives could not control government spending either, so we are now back to a situation worse than 2010.
All the time the population keep voting for Parties who promise more and more benefits and increased spending, politicians will continue to lie about the real financial facts and promise them it will not only continue, but increase.
We are now in a vicious downward spiral where more and more taxation means more and more people either leave the Country, or do not see the point of working.
July 9, 2025
There was no austerity, only tax rises as I recall.
July 9, 2025
NS
Correct, hence the reason the Conservatives also failed.
July 9, 2025
@Berkshire Alan – ‘job-for-the-boys’ the now unaccountable unelected Quangos. Strange how the Nation was more efficient, more effect when they didn’t exists. These out of creditability entities created by those we empower and pay, shirking responsibility and what they are there to do – manage
July 9, 2025
No government should have any money left – either they borrow less or tax less.
July 9, 2025
2010 was a Shangri La compared with today – national debt 900 billion then, today almost 3 trillion. Not often you can look back and see better than we have now. Even the 70’s are beginning to look more appealing – at least we did not have the immigration crisis and now no way to pay our way in the world with de-industrialization of the nation and relying on services to pull our irons of of the fire. And still the fools keep finding ways to waste our money – Nut Zero being the most egregious.
July 9, 2025
“Unfortunately the Conservatives could not control government spending either…” Will any politician be able to do the required ‘balancing’ of the books Alan? Any of them? I very much doubt it.
Just to take us back to pre-covid levels of expenditure/productivity would need a chainsaw taking to Benefits, WFH, CS staffing levels – and that’s before we even consider such things as public sector final salary pensions, the ‘Triple Lock’, a failing, money sucking NHS and a completely depleted military.
Debt is out of control and this Government will only increase debt levels over the next four years (if they last that long). But who is going to fix these problems? How can anyone who stands up and tells the hard truths get elected? Just imagine someone campaigning on “Stop All Benefits”, “Old Age – It’s Your Problem” or “NHS – Essential Treatments Only”. How would they do? They would be unelectable. Unless of course, the Country had descended into such a chaotic state that people beleived they had no choice in the matter.
Until we reach that point, debt will continue to rise, rampant inflation will return, sterling will decline (more money printing?) and those who can do so, will leave. I’d really would like to believe otherwise but I cannot see anyone forcing through the neccessary changes until we really are down and out and voters see no alternative.
July 9, 2025
Indeed earlier since Thatcher idiotically appointed the failed maths O level dope John Major as Chancellor and he insanely took us into the ERM falling out in Sept 1992 destroying the Tories reputation for economic competence. An act repeated by Boris and Sunak with their vastly expensive net harm lockdowns and net harm vaccines. Borrowing and QE to piss it down the drain.
July 9, 2025
1997! The rot set in with Major borrowing £30 billion in his first budget as PM. Mrs. T on the back benches nearly fainted!
July 9, 2025
Post spending review questions like productivity shouldn’t affect the amounts spent just the outcomes achieved. Departments can’t spend more just because their staff are poor, the numbers are agreed.
The additional expenditure will arise from benefits, immigrants and wars.
Unless we are attacked these are easily curtailed by restricting access to funding and the net zero scam offers large opportunities for savings.
But Labour will reach for tax instead and when the wealth tax doesn’t deliver the sums expected they will have no choice but to come for the rest of us.
How about taxing benefits. It is income after all. The state pension forms part of taxable income and has been reclassified as a benefit, surely that means all benefits are ripe for taxation.
July 9, 2025
Should anyone ever reflect on what the OBR suggests? To date they have never been correct, as with the BoE & the ONS. These are money down the drain for the taxpayer funded entities.
July 9, 2025
The OBR’s hands are tied by the fact that they are required to assume that politicians will do what they say they will do and not backtrack, change etc. How well would any organisation do when it is constrained in such a manner?
July 9, 2025
Take into account too the reduced corporation tax revenues as more businesses close and ex-workers shift from taxpayers to welfare recipients and the extra payments to the E.U. as more Brexit rollback is accomplished and the position is very bleak.
July 9, 2025
Since the end of WW2 every Labour government has destroyed the economy. The current shower will continue the trend.
July 9, 2025
They have the chance to destroy Britain this time.
Johnson-the-destroyer already destroyed the economy.
July 9, 2025
Sir John
All good points, but with an obscene 4 more years(something that doesn’t happen in democracies) the wreaking started by Blair is in full swing, Socialism if not full-on Marxism will be so in embedded in the system before the electorate get a chance to approve or not.
Look at it, we have had 25 years of the most personal egotistical Parliaments in history. Not one of them wanting to be a democratically elected Legislator all of them trying to force rule by a foreign unelected unaccountable power. Then the malicious punishment, the surrender of the Country, its territory, it wealth and ability to survive just so those that have grabbed power can manipulate the destruction needed to fully surrender democracy.
July 9, 2025
From the MsM
“Emmanuel Macron is demanding that Sir Keir Starmer make Britain less appealing to Channel migrants to secure a “one in, one out deal”. The French president believes the UK bears the blame for record numbers of small boats crossing the Channel and has three key demands to reduce its “pull factors”.
I hate to say it but he is actually correct. The UK has become the Worlds largest give-away of Taxpayer money.
It is Government, our MP’s that are wanting to maliciously punish and keep punishing the Nation. No one else has caused this situation, no one else gives away the Nations hard earned money and assets in the way our Parliaments have done this century.
We need an election and all those involved in this fraud of the British people held accountable.
As for the Chancellor she is not the sole creator of this destruction she is held to account by Parliament, her reckless attitude is handed to her by her boss and the collective responsibility of the Cabinet.
July 9, 2025
Reading the comments section is a must
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/08/emmanuel-macron-blames-keir-starmer-migrant-crisis/
It is not just the Chancellors Number that don’t add up! It is a rotten free-loading parliament that wont respond and do its job that enables all these attacks on the Country to happen. The economy is about managing expenditure, giving away our future is what Parliament is maliciously perusing. We cant afford ‘ourselves’ but parliament forces us to fund those that are criminals(forced entry is a criminal act), Parliament forces us to fund those that have never contributed.
July 9, 2025
As if there has not been enough miscarriages of justice since hanging was abolished, Sir Brian Leveson’s report, designed to save money, recommends the automatic right to a jury trial for – wait for it – sexual offences, fraud and other “non violent” crimes be scrapped for the first time since the Magna Carta was signed
The creation of a new Crown Court Bench Division in which a judge and two magistrates can hear ‘either way’ offences without a jury. Oh dear.
The one common thread running through all of the dreadful miscarriage of justice cases that have come to light is that they were ALL presided over by a judge.
July 9, 2025
No Labour Government’s figures ever add up!
July 9, 2025
And how much is Net Zero going to cost?
The OBR estimate £800bn by 2050. But this is surely an HS2 estimate as it will cost far more to just net zero our electricity, the easiest part and just 20% of our total energy usage. The cost of renewable electricity used by the CCC and hence the OBR is entirely false. On P106 of the CCC’s 7th Carbon Budeget they write : “The average cost of offshore wind is expected to fall from £49/MWh to £35/MWh by 2040.” Well, the current CfD price for the last Allocation Round 6 is £85/MWhr and this price is rising not falling. Floating offshore wind is currently £202/MWhr and GB Energy have recently annoinced that we will need to move to floating offshore wind because “we are running out of space” (presumably runnng out of shallow waters). And it must never be forgotten that since renewables are unreliable and chaotically intermittent it is necessary to overbuild, add grid stability and, if reliability is required either run a complete parallel system with hydrocarbon generators or develop grid-scale storage which according to the Royal Society doubles the price again even allowing for improved technology which does not yet exist. NESO estimates the Clean Power by 2030 plan will cost at least £40bn/year. They know all of this but believe that if they tell a big enough lie often enough people will believe it, including of course that CO2 causes global warming.
July 9, 2025
“How much is added to spending to handle record levels of illegal migrants, including hotels, legal costs and benefits?”
There is no need to encourage the invasion of unidentified illegal migrants with the offer of free accommodation in 4 star hotels or houses, free healthcare, free clothing, £40/week pocket money, free mobile ‘phones, entertainment, transport and lawyers’ fees and the freedom to roam our streets (even outside schools) and to take black market jobs undercutting the locals. The French don’t do it, so why do we? Is France not also signed up to the ECHR? Why aren’t these undocumented migrants given tents and held in secure camps? I cannot believe how any females can be voting for parties that support the invasion of these illegal migrants coming from deeply misogynistic cultures.
July 9, 2025
Indeed it is sad but you have to be cruel to be kind. Without any deterrent, other than rough seas, many more millions will come and they will keep coming the flow will get larger and larger.
So a new tourist tax in Wales on top of rates, VAT, the 20mph camera mugging taxes, road signs that are unreadable … I think the last time I holidayed in Wales was nearly 50 years back in Aberystwyth the sun shone and I played lots of tennis – every other time I went it was usually wet and windy or foggy or both! Food rather limited too as I recall. It was when the welsh were burning english people’s holiday homes. I will probably never go to Wales again and will stick with Italy, France, Switzerland…Let us hope they vote Reform for their own good!
July 9, 2025
All your questions are relevant, but there is one outstanding omission, the economy busting presence of one Ed Miliband and his fantasy approach to climate change. If current June and July weather is symptomatic, let’s have more of it. His analysis and solutions are an unmitigated, science and engineering free, unsustainable cost to every current and future tax payer in the U.K. Eliminating the cost of Miliband would free the Chancellors hand to reverse many of the financial sins she has already inflicted on the U.K. economy. None of it will happen as it is all part of this governments path to failure.
July 9, 2025
Indeed.
Potty lefty economists thing the point is it doesn’t matter what they do however damaging, pointless or destructive as long as the government is creating jobs. Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, offered another analogous metaphor for the digging holes and filling them in again – advocating government spending after the 2008 global financial crisis.
“If we discovered that, you know, space aliens were planning to attack and we needed a massive buildup to counter the space alien threat and really inflation and budget deficits took secondary place to that, this slump would be over in 18 months.
And then if we discovered, oops, we made a mistake, there aren’t any aliens, we’d still be better off!
I assume this is a metaphor for the war on Climate Change (war against it getting hotter or colder I assume they cannot decide) but this is even worse as it cost £ billions and actually does active harm too. Those whom the Gods wish to make lefty economist first they make mad!
July 9, 2025
water shortages and hose pipe bans…
expensive water bills
this country is an international laughing stock
July 9, 2025
I suggest also questions on
1) the cost of Net Zero, the costs and CO2 emissions of importing gas and oil compared with North Sea gas and oil;
2) the commercial value of fish (including shell fish) taken by the EU and the UK from UK’s territorial waters and EEZ
3) the cost of the NHS broken down by nationality or citizenship status of patients
4) the cost of policing pro-Palestine marches
5) The cost of policing Non-Crime Hate Incidents.
It may be that some of these have already been published for a specific period,. If so we need month by month figures on a continuing baiss.
July 9, 2025
6. How much is the steel industry losing and how much money will the government need to give it to keep making steel?
If by Parliament decree, 50% of its members had to agree, the steel mills for the much need specialist steel for defence etc., gets closed down and the owners of those mills get not only rewarded handsomely they then also become the new suppliers of steel from their home countries. They threw our hard-earned money away on their personal ego trip.
Of course, with France and the French Government owned steel production also receiving big rewards to supply our Military for our defence to keep us safe. Any money we now give these old outfits is for the steel we don’t use, and is cheap as chips from anywhere and everywhere so why bother.
The real question is how much of the Worlds emissions has this deed approved by Parliament reduced. All common sense and logic says they have done the opposite – increase World emissions by another magnitude. How many specialist jobs have been trashed never to return? At what cost to our safety and security?
This is another example of personal ego posturing by Parliament. The plan never accounted for where the replacement steel would come from, and if speciality steel was to be cancelled in the UK what was the alternative? No alternative has been invented.
Dent think, cant think, is the order of the day for the UK’s legislators
July 9, 2025
Sir John
All this probably adds up to a new bigger black hole than the £22 bn the Chancellor claimed to fix with the last budget.
I think you had a typo there, there is at least one naught missing