Even The Bank of England saw more inflation coming this year, though they estimated a little less than we got in June. Education was up, thanks to the VAT on school fees. Services are up, pushed in part by the big increase in National insurance. The cost of housing is the biggest contributor to the wider measure of inflation CPI(H) which soared 4.1% . No wonder when we keep inviting in thousands more people but fail build enough new homes for them.
The Bank is keeping UK rates much higher than European or Japanese rates to try to squeeze inflation down. It is fighting the government occasionally by not cutting as fast as they would like.Even the Bank can see the government’s tax and public sector wage policies are pushing up prices.
So what should the Bank do now, with wider inflation double the CPI target rate? It should not cut rates any more until it is clear inflation has peaked. It should offer an olive branch to the government by stopping the bond sales and reducing its losses.
July 17, 2025
The ineptitude of this and previous UK governments and the BoE is beyond belief. How much longer must voters suffer?
July 17, 2025
It is not just the voters, everyone except the illegals with their hotel rooms and ‘all found’ lifestyle are finding problems with this government.
July 17, 2025
+1
July 17, 2025
Too True
July 17, 2025
The bank could do what it did to Luz Truss and undermine the government forcing them to reduce spending but of course it won’t as it’s staffed by leftwaffe academics who believe in WEF policies.
I see our brain deadly energy secretary has asked National grid to have 40gw of gas turbines available by 2930. As most of the large industrial units are about 350mw then taking into account the ageing CCGT plants he will need about 74 of these units.
These take time to manufacturer, they’re not available offcrge shelf and they will need fuel supplies.
So it looks like we’ll be around th mercy of unstable regimes for the 25 years the contracts he’s offering. Maybe shutting down the North Sea and preventing fracking wasn’t such a brilliant idea after all.
It would appear the wheels are well and truly coming off his bandwagon.
July 17, 2025
So Italy is pulling out of the Paris Climate Scam
It looks like slowly sensible governments are beginning to see they’ve been duped.
No chance from the uniparty shysters controlling us.
Farage has made it clear to all the renewable subsidy grifters that any agreement on CfDs at the next capacity auction will be cancelled when Reform are governing.
There is hope.
July 17, 2025
My understanding of Ed Miliband’s letter to NESO simply requests around 40 GW of available capacity to ensure no blackouts when his renewables fail to deliver. NESO will use gas as there is no other solution, as they suggested in their Clean Power (well 95% clean power because 5% will still come from gas) 2030 advice. So we will be subsidising renewables because their electricity is more expensive than gas, even when gas has an added carbon tax. We will be subsidising renewables when they generate too much electricity which we cannot use via constraint payments and exporting at negative prices, as predicted by NESO in their CP 2030 advice. In addition we will be heavily subsidising the 40 GW of gas generation because the maintenance costs for gas supplying just 5% will be enormous. In fact running the gas gnerators only as and when required for a maximum of 5% of the time requires far more maintenance than running them flat out. So we will be runnng two parallel systems, both heavily subsidised. This is not even taking into account the hundreds of £billions to upgrade the national and local grids and all the extra infrastructure to keep the grid stable from chaotically intermittent renewable generation. All because Ed Miliband is willing to sacrifice our economy and country in order to show the world we are leading the way in saving the planet. A delusion as great as the Aztec’s human sacrifices made to ensure the sun come up the net morning.
July 17, 2025
Ian
First quarterly 2025 Financial report from SSE who operate wind farms.
Generation down by 4% due to poor weather. !
July 17, 2025
Unfortunately the headline in the Telegraph was very misleading. Procurement in the capacity market is very unlikely to include new gas generation particularly as units would need to be capable of CO2 capture – a costly idea that is not even proven to work, or switching to use costly hydrogen, which is anotger idea unlikely to work, with hydrogenprojects dropping like flies. It will rely on pretending that interconnectors and batteries would deliver more than is likely, and on the continued operation of plant (CCGT, OCGT and nuclear) that is near to end of life.
We won’t know the outcome until the end of March under the retracted Capacity Market auction arrangements.
July 17, 2025
Sorry, Sir John but I don’t think the rate of inflation is the most important thing at the moment.
We are supposed to live in a democracy. The people elect a Government to serve for up to 5 years and then, at the end of that period, hold them to account and then either re-elect it, or choose an alternative Government.
That “contract” between the governing class and the governed has been completely broken by the revelation yesterday that the Not-a-Conservative-Government under Sunak had taken out a Super Secret Injunction in order to secretly import tens of thousands of Afghans to the UK; to accommodate them at our expense, spread them around our communities and provide them and their extended families with “free everything” – probably for life. These people, it is now admitted, may have had very tenuous links with the British Army in Afghanistan and many have not been vetted in any meaningful way.
Since this treachery was (we are led to believe) only known to the PM, a tiny number of Ministers and Senior Civil Servants, it was possibly also kept secret from the Treasury; the OBR and therefore the Bond Markets, who were funding the profligate Tories and are now funding the even more profligate Labour Government.
The British people were deliberately denied the right to have vital information which the Government knew might affect how many of them would vote. As far as I’m concerned the last General Election was held on fraudulent terms and the result has no democratic legitimacy.
The so-called democratic settlement in the UK has been completely broken by Sunak, and Starmer who kept the Super Injunction and carried on with the scheme for the past year.
Not one person has fallen on his sword or been held to account for the original “mistake” … or the disgraceful way the Government dealt with it, by denying the British people their democratic rights.
We effectively live in an Authoritarian State.
Reply You have had your say. If I had known of this I would have opposed it. The key decision to stop us knowing was made by a court. It all began with a bad mistake by officials which at the time they did not even report to Ministers.
July 17, 2025
Thank you for letting me have my say.
July 17, 2025
So how can a Court decision on silence be part of a democracy. Was the decision made on the basis of ‘need to know’? Surely the people should indeed know.
Reply Yes we needed to know. I could never write about this latest migration policy as we were all stopped from knowing
July 17, 2025
When you buy something and the seller does not provide as promised you can sue for damages. Alas this is not true when you vote for MPs or governments. Very often they not only fail to deliver but fail even to try to deliver – very often they know perfectly well they will not even try to deliver. This as they make their lying promises to voters – so how can this be part of a meaningful democracy?
I see that Labour are starting with their Gerrymandering of the voting system – first 16 year old’s, then boundaries, then non citizens… a better way to go would be you only get a vote if you are paying circa £10k PA net min in Taxes. After all you are voting to say how your cash should be spent! Others are currently voting to say how much of other people’s cash they would like to be given! They answer usually given by them is as much as possible!
July 17, 2025
Reply to reply: then it’s worth drilling down as to how our system permits a court to do this, whether this is the best course of action in a democratic society, and if not, how this can be altered. It strikes me that taking somebody else’s labour, so spending somebody else’s money requires their up front consent. Representative consent can be justified up to a point, but spending somebody’s money without their explicit consent or knowledge on behalf of others and in direct contravention to their own interests is stretching the system to breaking point.
July 17, 2025
@Donna – I would start by saying secrecy has no place in our Democracy.
There is an however, there was a mistake, names of people that collaborated with UK were released by accident onto the World. My understanding was that the injunction was to stop those that wish to kill those on the list knowing who they were.
That mistake was different from the decision to allow the people to come to the UK that should have been openly debated, costed and approved by Parliament and its MPs – that should have came first, long before lists. that begs the question of what else is the UK’s Politburo conniving on?
The concern within the UK is mission creep and over-site, 2TK and Hermer want to run the UK as a two tier Nation to suit their personal political beliefs and run rings around democracy to impose their will. They openly show support for Marx and the WEF above democracy and the rule of Law. The previous regime opened the door to this sort of duplicity, they in recent times invented the bypassing of democracy, they invented the 5 year terms of destruction.
We have just also seen what happens when MP’s act according to conscience, they get banned by their ‘Gang Boss’ they are there to obey the Boss not serve their constituents and country. No matter how stupid they turnout to be it is between them and those that voted them in.
The whole system has become rotten to the core. All those that serve the system are all to blame as it is only they that can change things
July 17, 2025
@Donna
The Telegraph has just printed the faces of all those Murdered by the Taliban that were on that list,
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/16/faces-afghans-murdered-taliban-since-kill-list/
The Taliban claims the MoD list came into its possession in 2022 and that it has been hunting down those identified in it ever since.
there are 2 sides to the story
July 17, 2025
Actually, judging from the number of former Ministers who are breaking ranks and giving their version )(Sunak and Shapps have gone to ground) there are a great many “sides” to the story.
July 17, 2025
Now we know why there is a black hole in the economy, no doubt a few more skeletons will come rattling out of the cupboard, this lot expected to cost 7 billion. Deceptive isn’t the word for these politicians – they are scoundrels and John’s effort to blame a court doesn’t wash when it’s been going on for years instead of the few months required to do this job.
July 17, 2025
Excellent message Donna
July 17, 2025
Another reason why we should never have to gone to war in Afghan (and Iraq 2).
It was as obvious back then as it is now why we shouldn’t have gone to war.
But so many sheep who just bleat what others say, in this case, Tony Blair, the Pied Piper – taking us into war.
July 17, 2025
The overwhelming majority of Afghans on this list did not assist the British Army but just wanted to come to the UK. I do not believe this list was published by mistake. I now learn that the Afghans who have come are now suing the British people for “compensation”(wrong comment re Lord Hermer removed]
July 17, 2025
Sunak also a fan of high taxes, climate alarmism – and throwing the towel in six months early!
July 17, 2025
Reply to reply – It was the previous government’s choice to request a super injunction. They could have chosen not to make such a request. The court only made a decision because the previous government asked them to make it. (Of course, the court still could have said no.)
July 17, 2025
Other things pushing up inflation:-
Net zero rip off energy and the energy market rigging.
Higher long term interest rates caused by zero confidence in Reeves and Starmer.
Property rental and purchase prices driven up by open door immigration, restrictive planning and open door immigration and green crap OTT building regs.
All the Tax increases IHT, stamp duty, NI, energy back door taxes, rigging of the car markets, ULEZ…
The prospect of the mad hugely and damaging Workers Rights Bill.
Skilled people and capital leaving the country
Road blocking
Rigging of markets in transport, energy, education, pension fund investment, housing, healthcare, banking…
Over regulation of employment and nearly everything else.
All these drive up inflation and decrease living standards!
July 17, 2025
And the destroy growth and overall long term tax receipts too. A doom loop agenda for the economy!
July 17, 2025
“Broke Britain: how the Bank of England wrecked the economy” – the Spectator lead article “Today – I always thought Andrew Bailey (and Javid ) were dire – and Carney obviously too. Highly paid climate alarmist, innumerate dopes who do/did not even have the interests of the public at heart it seemed to me! Rather like most recent PMs since Thatcher.
July 17, 2025
“More inflation as expected”
Sir John
You have that wrong extra taxes, extra civil servants (all 20% of them) sending money to prop-up foreign regimes does not raise cost or cause inflation. The mighty UK and its massive GDP can support the World, it needs to be generous to be a leading light to World Government and Marxism.
July 17, 2025
You’re correct. Gut feeling says leave rates where they are. Gilt yields are rising, not falling, on the long end. To cut now would place the system out of kilter. Surely as yields rise towards the short end, money gets sucked out of term deposits to head into gilts reducing private borrowing potential?
July 17, 2025
‘So what should the Bank do now’ other than resign and let that department come back under the control of the Treasury with responsibility passed to the Minister in charge – the answer is nothing.
It was never independent all the time the Taxpayer was paying its way in the World, it is by all common sense controlled by those that force the taxpayer to hand over its money to them, Parliament, its MPs, the Government and the Chancellor are the only ones in charge. That or the money stops
July 17, 2025
What the bank should do is stop printing money for now. It can take money out of the system via its interest rate. With sterling becoming more scarce, its value will increase.
July 17, 2025
“The key decision to stop us knowing was made by a court” – nice try at deflection, it was made by a court but requested by the Conservative government.
July 17, 2025
RG :
The court doesn’t have to agree with the government does it? At least not the last government. Now that we have an HR lawyer ex CPS as the PM I’m not so sure….
July 17, 2025
Yes … the Government applied; the Court granted.
And Two-Tier was trying to keep the Super Injunction in place.
July 17, 2025
Wokingham is seeking an ‘Overseas Arrivals Co-ordinator’ to provide strategic direction a council wide response to the increasing demand. Currently Wokingham has 5,711 people under various resettlement and asylum schemes, mostly from Hong Kong but also 526 Ukranians and 36 Afgans. The Council has apparently recently purchased several new properties to house some of these people. The “12 month Government funded role” has a salary of between £50,788 – £56,075. If Mrs T wasn’t long retired, I’d be getting her to apply.
It might help fund our recent Rate increase.
July 17, 2025
They are all up to their necks in miss information and distortion – the media along with the UK’s Politburo
Headline in the Telegraph ‘Suella Braverman’s husband has quit Reform UK six months after joining’
Was that spun to show Reform in a ‘bad-light’, or was it that Reform suspects Braverman was part of the Tory cover-up being the Minister in charge along with Jenrick at the time. So the implications for her husband being a member of Reform was not what they (Reform) needed. – ‘Who was in government? Home Secretary: Suella Braverman. Immigration Minister: Robert Jenrick.’
July 17, 2025
Personally I believe we have had 25years of wrecking and destruction, the whole cabal needs a clear out and start over. Experience counts for nothing once the rot sets in, it creeps up on the well-meaning in the ranks and even they don’t at the time see the implications of their actions. Going with the flow is not an answer in a Democracy, a virtual signal achieves nothing – hard core focus is needed. It is and will only ever be the economy, its growth, our safety & security, our self reliance and resilience that matter and they all go an all go hand in hand.
We lost the Conservatives when they were commandeered by the Liberal Democrats, in both the party and its command and control, so much so the feeling is we now have the situations that all conservatives that weren’t voted out were forced out. So the real opposition has yet to emerge then prove its-self. We have a Socialist WEF Uniparty posted through out and a Politburo demanding and dictating. That’s not strength that’s weakness.
I lament the fact that the Parliamentary so-called Tory group has hidden behind the need for continuation and continuity, choosing those with collective responsibility for the cause and collapse of the party at the GE and subsequently damaging the whole Country – a clear out opportunity lost for the sake of ‘Mickey Mouse’ Socialist control. Nothing will change unless and until the grass roots of Conservatives at large gain control
July 17, 2025
Suspect that Refr’s announcement that Suella Braveran wud never be wece had something to do with it.
July 18, 2025
She was one of the (we’re led to believe*), very few Ministers who were aware of the plans to import tens of thousands of Afghans and keep it secret from the electorate. According to her and Jenrick they argued against it, but couldn’t stop it …. and then they kept it secret instead of doing what they should have done which was resign from the Government and use their Parliamentary privilege to inform the electorate why.
I guess her husband joined Reform in order to promote his wife’s possible future defection, but concluded that she would not be accepted. So just the kind of carpet-bagger we don’t need.
* Of course, you can’t believe a word any of them say.
Reply MPs have to obey Super injunctions from a court.
July 17, 2025
The Bank should follow its remit and suppress inflation. If it tries to do anything more than that, it is being political – the last thing it should be.
The difference between the post-tax interest-rate on my savings and CPI is now -1%. In the final days of the last government, it stood at +1%, meaning that my savings were growing in real terms. That’s quite a turn-around. Even as Labour considers a ‘wealth tax’, across the land people’s wealth is being consumed by inflation caused by ……………………… Rachel Reeves.
July 17, 2025
“So what should the Bank do now, with wider inflation double the CPI target rate?”
RESIGN
July 17, 2025
Fully agree with your proposals but do not see it happening.
The BoE MPC are trying as hard as they can to assist this Government rather than fulfill their official remit of <2% inflation. I expect a further cut in interest rates.
July 17, 2025
Sir John
I apologise, like others I keep digressing as events elsewhere seem to have commanded attention.
‘So what should the Bank do now’ The country’s Command and Control still with their Marxist WEF training want and need to keep control of the BoE, they think power is being the day to day boss hands-on. Those that pay-the-piper-for-the-tune-it-makes, also so like it or not control it.
The need is to be honest and bring the BoE back into the Treasury with the Chancellor and Government as well as giving them out taxpayer money being openly transparently be seen to be the ones responsibility for its actions, rather than all this subterfuge. Would any one pay someone and not expect a say in the out come?
Alternative, my favourite is to get the BoE back to being properly, formally independent. This Quango fudge that riddles the Nation has to stop. For more that 250 years the Bank of England served the Nation well helped make it strong, self-reliant & resilient. Then along came the Politicians with barely a brain between them thinking they without experience, knowledge or the basic wear-with-all they should take charge. Seemingly to be seen to running something that actually works.
How many more times do we need the demonstration that Government, Parliament just don’t know how to run business, industry or enterprise. Their job is to create frameworks for others to exceed and expand.
July 17, 2025
It is disgraceful that the government, both Conservative and Labour, covered up the Afghan situation for 3 years.
6 Months would have been understandable while they got people out of Afghanistan.
Immigration is killing the UK, because we are allowing people in who don’t share our values or culture, and our Government and MPs will act surprised when the inevitable explosion occurs!
Net Zero is killing the UK, but mad Ed and Starmer the harmer don’t care.
Inflation is equally a danger to the UK, and the only action needed is to sack the BOE Governor, Andrew Bailey, first, and then the whole Monetary Policy Committee, followed by the utterly incompetent Chancellor.
The PM says they are fixing the economy, so one can only doubt his mental health. We have a Government and Parliament of inadequate clowns; it is frightening to think of what they will mess up next!
July 17, 2025
As to your third paragraph , th bank should listen to such as yourself and Liam Halligan. For me they are, along with the OBR and the Treasury, part of the great reset necessary in the pre-planning for a new government. None of them can be in place after week one of a new administration. This also brings me to the House of Lords. I believe a revising chamber is necessary. I do not believe it should be elected, nor do I believe that party politics UK style should play any part in it. I think a second house of 100 is sufficient, chosen from the real achievers who believe in a thriving successful UK.
July 17, 2025
Adendum.
Can I nominate you, Jacob RM, and David Starkey for the new Senate.
July 17, 2025
Ah, yes inflation. Don’t worry about it. Labour have found the answer to that, those sixteen year old voters will sort it out.
We just need to explain what inflation is and they will be right on it…..
July 17, 2025
private sector pay rises still at 4.9% due to minimum wage hike
What did the public sector get with their employer pension contributions?
Profligate Labour and their mates