If NATO escalates with Russia and starts shooting down her planes it has to be ready to fight a full war. It may well be that Putin the bully backs off, but it is a risk. I’ve little doubt NATO would in the end win such a war, but there is also no doubt there would be massive loss of life and damage before victory was secured. I am certainly against the UK on her own shooting down a stray Russian plane provoking NATO somewhere over NATO’s eastern border. There is no need for us to take such a risk.
Given the structure of NATO any NATO member would be ill advised to take the risk without being sure the US would commit her forces to any resulting fight. If Putin thought the US would not turn up he might well call European NATO’s bluff. In the end the European powers could defeat Russia, but it would take time to get the economies onto a war footing and to get anything like the scale of army and weaponry Russia has already committed to Ukraine. If the US backed the shooting down then there is much reason to suppose Putin would back away.
The immediate response to Russia should be as it always has been to provocative intrusion into our waters and airspace. Put force alongside them and make clear they could be destroyed if they showed more evidence of ill intent.
The UK should concentrate on defending its own airspace and the seas around our islands. History taught us in 1914 and 1939-41 that we could not rely on the US to come to our aid on the battlefield. The US only entered the second world war after much reluctance by US voters because Japan stupidly attacked the US fleet forcing the US into the war. In the post war world of NATO the US and other allies did not come to our military assistance to defeat the illegal invasion of the Falkland islands by Argentina. It was outside the NATO area but that need not have stopped them helping us. We needed our own forces, and just had enough to do the job thanks to their skill and bravery.
The priorities for our increased defence spending must be an Iron Dome over the UK islands to protect us from incoming drones, missiles and planes. It must include enhanced cyber capabilities and much larger and more diverse drone squadrons. It should include enough submarines and support vessels for our two carriers to be able to police our home waters and have expeditionary capability beyond. It also needs a larger army.
September 26, 2025
Good luck with getting a larger army when you have this Government looking to prosecute servicemen from the Irish conflict of the 70’s. Today’s youth are not likely to be volunteers so is it conscription time and back to National Service? Our current crop of so-called politicians are more pacifist than defender. We are once again approaching Remembrance Day when our forefathers died defending our country and for what, so politicians could sell us down the river?
September 26, 2025
Can you imagine the effect on voluntary recruitment if 2TK lead the call to the serve?
September 26, 2025
I served in the RN for 9 years, six on nuclear submarines. I would be very wary about signing up now with their shysters in power who conduct lawfare against the military.
Mostly PPE graduates they have no concept of action in the services. They are a bunch of Marxist children who think it’s some kind of game.
As for tackling Russia, the priority should be securing our borders against the channel invasion.
We have encouraged a fifth column to form who in the event of conflict would very likely undermine us.
Priorities dear boy. Priorities.
September 26, 2025
+1
September 26, 2025
@William Smith – prosecuting people for doing what the government trained and paid them to do is monstrous, indefensible and a kick in the teeth to society. If, and its a big IF a situation was arrived at that needed reviewing the only people in court should be the PM of the day, they were the Commander in Chief and would have ensured they knew what they were doing, asking and be aware of the situations they were creating.
September 26, 2025
I served in the RN for many years and had several jobs in Intelligence. The probing of air space has been pat of Russia’s tactics for a very long time – indeed it is a standard tactic inany country’s inventory, although not much used by the West. The main concern used to be that it constant repetition without any escalatory signals would lull NATO/UK into a false sense of calm. The key thing to watch is not the probing itself but what else is occurring. If there no indications of intended further escalation the UK should simply meet it with an equal response and wave to the pilot – as we used to do in the Soviet era. One of the purposes of such probes is to assess probability of detection and response times. Ergo, surveillance must be continuous and effective and every probe should be met with a fast response.
In parallel, if there is intelligence of escalatory developments UK/NATO should respond in like manner, eg., the forward deployments already undertaken.
In many ways the NATO vs USSR/WP confrontation combined with MAD was very stable. This is no longer the case. Putin had several reasons to suppose he could succeed in Ukraine, largely the mistakes made by Biden and the EU. His hostility towards the West derives from NATO’s dreadful dealings with post Soviet Russia in the 1990s, mainly the fault of the US State department under Clinton and Bush.. But that does not translate into an intention to invade NATO member states. He delights in and encourages the self harm NATO states inflict upon themselves on this side of the Atlantic and supports in various ways those fighting the West but, again why should he inflict enormous damage on Russia and risk thousands or even millions of Russian lives just to attack a NATO member state. He would not gain a thing.
Putin is not a serious threat to NATO unless one of two circumstances emerges: a) serious division inside Russia drive him to try to unite Russians by attacking a common enemy (but he wouldn’t win so it would only unite Russians against him), or b) a NATO state does something stupid like for example Biden saying the US would not respond with force to a minor attack, or joins the war in Ukraine. NATO must show both that it is capable of defending itself and is prepared to escalate. It can do that without unnecessarily poking the bear. Poking the bear may be fun for hot heads but it is stupid.
Western politicians should keep the Russian people in mind and accept that they constitute a nation state that has the same rights, eg access to world trade routes, as other countries do. Punishing them only confirms Putin’s propaganda in their minds and unites them against the West. Unfortunately this requires a subtelty and statesmanship notably lacking in so many countries, particularly in Europe and UK.
September 26, 2025
@Peter Gardner. Great post. Informative. I agree entirely with your political analysis.
September 26, 2025
I don’t think the West treated post Soviet Russia dreadfully. For the entire time after the collapse of the USSR Russia maintained a nuclear threat against the West and never looked trustworthy. There appeared to be some hope when Boris Yeltsin took over, but now we’re back to the same hostility except this time the Kremlin is run like a gangster mob.
September 26, 2025
@Peter Gardner – your scenario forgot the U2’s being flown at one time by UK pilots to allow for deniability.
I see where you are coming from, but blaming the US for having naive leaders shouldn’t be seen as a comfortable way of dismissing the mutch larger EU and its neglect to defend, or the UK’s neglect from being able to protect itself. A strategy relying on the whims of a foreign power jumping it to pick up the ‘slack’ you have created. From what we know Poland is the only one out there even acting seriously
Ukraine without NATO has not done to bad, they took on board their own responsibility, removed more than what would amount to more than 10 times the UK’s frontline defence capability from the battle field. Then back a while Finland was able to make Russia think again.
MAD needs to be capable not just a theoretical will-they-wont-they or is it smoke an mirrors. Successive UK governments have neglected its purpose therefore the capability had to be maintained
September 26, 2025
If we can’t, or more likely, won’t defend our seas and borders from rubber boats, what chance do we have of defending against a Russian Army, especially if they are backed by China, Iran and North Korea?
I agree with William Smith above, who in their right mind would join up to fight and an army of unwilling conscripts won’t defeat the aforementioned.
If Starmer thinks the rise in patriotism bodes well for recruitment to the military, he needs to think again. I suspect the rise of the flag posting is more about sticking two fingers up to the politicians.
I think Starmer and Co are playing a very dangerous game which I can sea ending in tears.
September 26, 2025
Who would want to give their lives for the country when it actually turns out they are making the country safe for the new arrivals, who will move in when they don’t come back?
September 26, 2025
@Cliff.. Wokingham. – 2TK recommends to his followers the Palestinian flag should be flown before that of the UK.
He already as much as possible has shown his disdain for the UK Parliament going AWOL rather that attending. He used the Media to announce that the WEF was his go to not the UK Parliament – he wants to construct a World Government with him and his Marxist/Socialist buddies at the helm. His disdain for the UK and its people are only matched with that of Blair’s
September 26, 2025
When seen from a potential enemy’s perspective, our inability to secure our borders from invasion by rubber boats carrying unarmed though potentially capable combatants must give them confidence.
When they see the impoverished scale of our defence, forces with a permanent army of barely 72,000 including none combatant support staff that must give them confidence.
When they see our energy security is now entirely dependent on importation of even the most basic requirements that must give them confidence.
And, when they see our manufacturing base has been reduced to relying on China for the most basic raw materials along with almost zero steel manufacturing capacity well to our enemies it must never have looked easier.
September 26, 2025
Well said…
September 26, 2025
RE :
Correct.
September 26, 2025
A few Russian planes or drones entering our airspace have not been a reason to go to war in the 80 years since WW2, including through the Cold War. So why now?
War certainly isn’t useful for Putin, he’s much more popular in Russia than UK and most EU leaders are in their home countries. He also has a greater degree of control over his population, should he need to use it.
Contrast our leaders: deeply unpopular (for good reason) for whom a prolonged war would keep them in power (suspension of elections) and allow them to install a permanent tyranny (via “emergency” legislation on digital IDs, CBDCs, censorship laws, bans on protests etc). I include our bureaucracy, judiciary, NGOcracy, big business and propogandists in this “leadership” (the politicians are figureheads).
The enemy is within. Many of these so called Russian provocations may be false flags (yes, there is some evidence of this). We should all wake up to the real threat. It’s not in Moscow.
September 26, 2025
I agree.
September 26, 2025
+1
September 26, 2025
Our government’s are too busy getting into wars of other countries which have nothing to do with us costing millions of Britsh tax payers money and lives of our brave service people.
In stead of protecting and looking after the uk and it’s citizens it looks after illegals coming to the UK better than the people paying tax from their hard earned money this government’s stated illegals have priority over British people who are a threat to the security of the uk
September 26, 2025
The UK should concentrate on defending its own airspace and the seas around our islands.
Good luck with that then, we can’t even stop some rubber dinghies what bloody chance do we have against nuclear submarines or troop carriers
September 26, 2025
Just another interesting fact. A third ship carrying 800 EVs from China is ablaze in the Pacific. Not looking good.
September 26, 2025
Please dont tell the BBC
September 26, 2025
That’s our economy going up in flames as well.
September 26, 2025
Was it headed for USA?
September 26, 2025
So no environmental damage then?
September 26, 2025
Yes, and that’s far more interesting than today’s pointless distraction topic.
September 26, 2025
Yeah, but its not in our carbon footprint ….so we’re okay ….long live net-zero
September 26, 2025
Total insanity a bit more CO2 is not a problem, ev cars save no co2 anyway for 50k miles and then only if they use v. Low carbon CO2 and we do not have any spare at 100k miles they need new battery too! Ed Miliband Lunacy!
September 26, 2025
“The priorities for our increased defence spending must be an Iron Dome over the UK islands to protect us from incoming drones, missiles and planes”
To which many would add that we also need the capability to strike the Russian launch sites before they can do so. As Sun Tsu wrote in the 5th century BC (“The Art of War”), the best defence is to strike the enemy first, achieving the crucial element of surprise. As the Roman author Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus wrote 1000 years later “Si vis pacem, para bellum” – we must prepare for the inevitable war with Russia
The war criminal Putin is not going to give up – because he knows that if he does so, he will lose power. The Russian way of regime change is usually fatal for the deposed incumbent.
One observes that Netanyahu is in the same predicament.
September 26, 2025
Why would Trump want to come to the aid of a Europe which its Governing Classes are actively destroying via mass immigration from the Muslim / 3rd world?
I very much doubt if the UK declared a war against Russia that many young people would be lining up to volunteer for the meat-grinder. And it would be even less if the EU declared / provoked it.
The British Establishment decided several decades ago that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland was to be subsumed into a “United States of Europe” and our history, culture, national character and social cohesion were to be destroyed by mass immigration and imposed multiculturalism.
Why would anyone want to fight for that?
September 26, 2025
Should our political class engage us in a war with Russia then I shall have two enemies rather than only one.
September 26, 2025
So Boris says he does not trust Farage over the economy or defence.
BORIS and Sunak were appalling on both these issue Net Zero damages both hugely just scrapping this as Farage would do would be a huge advantage. They both wasted over £1 trillion of borrowed and QE money on net harm vaccines, net harm lockdowns, Covid apps, net zero, intermittent renewable subsidies…
September 26, 2025
This week I caught an almost empty train Birmingham New Street to London cost £13 with railcard hard to see that we need the extra capacity or speed of HS2 at a cost of £100 billion+ . Then yesterday took the packed M25 for 35 miles doing an average speed of under 20 MPH. Why do they invest £billions in the former and nothing where the huge demand is from paying trucks, vans, cars… Try doing Tesco or AMAZON deliveries or taking all your plumbing, roofing, gardening… tools and material with you on a train!
HS trains can only be faster if they do not stop much so longer end connections and often longer overall journeys. They save little or no CO2 either when end connections (often two direction cars or taxis at both ends) are allowed for.
September 26, 2025
No to both questions in the title of the article.
The UK should not be shooting down planes outside its airspace.
NATO is in a strange position with fading support from the current American president. It would not be wise for a member to shoot down a Russian plane.
As for the final paragraph, defence costs money. The UK does not have the money for the proposals.
Trump appears to flip flop on foreign policy. He is sometimes with Russia and sometimes with Ukraine. If he can sell US arms to Europe he will satisfy the military industrial lobby while presenting himself as a peace president.
September 26, 2025
Trump wants a Nobel Peace prize, while complaining of Gaza destruction and deaths, yet doesn’t tell Israel to stop or he will stop them.
September 26, 2025
Trump and his intelligence staff appears to be assessing China as the more important risk (hence rattling his sabre over Bagram) although he is disappointed that Putin spurned his offer of an off-ramp for the conflict in Ukraine which has prompted him to throw his weight behind Zelensky for the time being.
September 26, 2025
I agree that Russian trespasses into UK airspace should be me with the current appropriate response- escort them out or threaten to shoot. However, we are not the frontline of NATO. Putin would like to restore, so far as possible, the former territories of the Soviet Union. The weak links are the Baltic states and Moldova. The latter is difficult to get at with force, but expect to see elections and cybersecurity attacked. As for the Baltics, we should try to get Trump onside and meet obviously deliberate incursions with force. If we can’t get Trump onside, then build up NATO forces in these three countries drawn from Europe. Putin will continue pushing until he gets a reaction. He has not currently had one which will stop him. I think he is the one who would back down. He couldn’t defeat European NATO with conventional weapons, provided we showed a united front, and I don’t think he’s lunatic enough to start firing nuclear weapons.
September 26, 2025
Russia has the right to support it’s territory, Kaliningrad, that means flying or sailing close to the Baltic states.
September 26, 2025
Clearly they viewed the Spanish minister’s jet as provokatsiya.
September 26, 2025
He has a fantastic array of hypersonic ’conventional’ weapons.
Take a look at Ukraine, which has faced only conventional weapons from Russia, which has now defeated Ukraines third and last army. The lines of defence, designed and constructed under NATO experts have been overcome.
There is only the Dnieper now, which is hardly a line of defence and there are no Ukrainian troops to speak of.
Russia will shock you by NOT taking control of all of Ukraine, even though it could.
Start preparing your excuses now – I suggest ‘Putin was too afraid/weak/stupid’.
September 26, 2025
The notion of the US supporting the UK in the event of a Russian attack here being subject to an assessment after the event is daft.
In preparing against the risk of war, such actions would or should fundamentally be decided in advance, and firmly established as an agreement between our two nations, whether or not it is widely known.
The UK merely relying on hope after an attack is on its way is like playing Russian Roulette.
September 26, 2025
Russian Roulette with a bullet in all the chambers.
September 26, 2025
Why is it necessary to speculate over who would win a war with Russia? This is nonsense. Ukraine is America’s proxy war supported by Europe and it’s being lost. Yet another failed America proxy war causing misery and destruction. For what? Because America wanted Ukraine to join NATO and Russia objected as they consider this an existential threat. This is what this conflict is about. There is no evidence that Russia has any intention of invading any European country. Why is Russia’s President labelled a bully when America and Europe deliberately supported a coup in Ukraine in 2014 starting fighting in the Eastern Provinces? Furthermore, America has an appalling record of failed overseas interventions eg Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, some with our support. For more than thirty years they’ve been the world’s most dominant military power, indeed I’d call these conflicts way beyond bullying, judging by the trail of death and destruction left behind. And were these overseas adventures successful? No they were failures. We should be concentrating on diplomacy to stop the fighting and reach a settlement in order to stop the misery and save lives.
September 26, 2025
@Micheal Saxton. +1. America has been the most belligerent country on earth, since WW2. By contrast, in the jostling for world hegemony China has used other means to very successfully leverage its influence and power.
September 26, 2025
It’s easy to stop the fighting in Ukraine. Stop supplying the ammunition and encouragement in spite of the fact which everybody know, over 1.2 million Ukrainian men KIA. Many press ganged off the streets. Barbaric behaviour funded by the west.
September 26, 2025
Have they press-ganged serial rapists and murders like Putin has done?
September 26, 2025
The conflict has several other dimensions, not least the populations of ethnic Russians within the Ukraine SSR borders, access to Black Sea warm water ports for exports and naval bases, and Ukraine’s rich natural resources and role as major grain grower. Historically the Soviets made many key high technology investments in the Ukraine too. It’s not just military chess.
September 26, 2025
As you write Sir John – our resources should be concentrated on defence of our own shores and not on supporting engagement elsewhere. There may be a time that supporting others is in our own long term interest but that time is not now.
Our forces and equipment are too small to fight a full scale war and our society is so fractures that patriotism alone will not lead to mass defence of our shores, why should my children go off to die while others pray on a Friday?
September 26, 2025
“Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion, too”
The British Establishment signed up to this nonsense. Unfortunately, they didn’t realise that the other side/s hadn’t.
September 26, 2025
I find it incredible that, as I understand it, our only defence against incoming missiles and drones is from a warship stationed somewhere in the Thames Estuary. Yet another neglect of our defences in a changing world from incompetent politicians.
September 26, 2025
As usual, John, you hit the nail on the head: where is our air defense system; is it up to speed; do we even have an airborne warning system………… And how effective are our own anti-missile missiles and how many do we actually have primed and ready?
If defense is anything like our other State Infrastructure I am not sanguine.
September 26, 2025
My understanding is NATO only acts if one of its members is attacked. On that logic it would only be a response to an an attack that would have had to have happened in the first place. The UK acting as part of a NATO, a collective NATO response is unlikely as other NATO members would have had to act first – the UK should not be on the front line of the EU.
Things get complicated in that the UK seems to have has taken on the role as protector of the EU. The UK is policing the EU’s sky’s, that is just weird especially in the context that the EU doesn’t reciprocate and doesn’t protect the UK from an invasion. The usual we are the EU and we ‘take’, ‘take’, ‘take’. Then it has to be recognised the UK does not have the forces the equipment therefore the capability. You don’t pick a fight you cannot win.
September 26, 2025
Observation on your comment Sir John – there is no European NATO. There are some within Europe Austria, ROI etc that are not part of NATO.
September 26, 2025
ABSOLUTELY NOT!
That would be an escalation – intercept and escort out of NATO space is the only logical option, but I have no faith that our PM could approach such a situation without making things worse.
September 26, 2025
ABSOLUTELY NOT!
That would be an escalation – intercept and escort out of NATO space is the only logical option, but I have no faith that our PM could approach such a situation without making things worse.
September 26, 2025
No NATO shouldn’t shoot down Russian planes unless they want to start WW3;
At the moment all Russia are doing is sending drones and a few planes across other countries to gauge their reaction;The only reason for shooting down planes is if they’re attacking and destroying another country;It is only then that the NATO member Country under attack has a right to defend itself and NATO has a decision to make as to whether it should collectively join in to defend that country.
In the meantime the UK should start to rapidly increase its capability to protect itself which includes being able to control immigration, and bring forward its re-armament programme.That has to include a recruitment drive for the army which was reduced under the conservatives to 75000. We cannot rely on other NATO countries including the USA to come to our aid should a war happen;
September 26, 2025
As it is one of the first priorities of the government to keep us safe and secure, the UK should be able to stand on its own two feet first. It is lazy, incompetent and total neglect of any government to believe their is a mutual friend that will rush to our defence.
Just as with expenditure of defence prescribed as a percentage is lazy, incompetent and a total neglect of duty. Defence is just that defence, there is no halfway house there is just what is necessary.
Successive governments have tried, and tried to redefine the need so as to avoid the honest truth and need all ending in the Country not being adequately protected. No one knows what tomorrow will bring, so how do you protect the Country from an invasion and protect our life lines, even that changes daily.
We need to have the industrial capacity to respond, that missing, a big hole blown in the defence of the UK. Much of the UK Defence capability has been sold to the French Government. We saw King Charles at BEA Barrow Facility for the cutting of the steel for a submarine, French steel, the submarine itself relies on French owned electronics to be able to operate. That’s the gamble the UK Government has taken, being reliant on the whims of a foreign power for even the basics – that’s not defence that’s self inflicted harm. On a similar note UK planes flying to protect EU sky’s cant even protect themselves unless they as the German government who control UK fighters – again the UK not being able to act.
September 26, 2025
Shoot down a Russian jet. No, it’s what Putin wants. Then he can justify to his people that the war was started by NATO. He will then nibble chunks off the Baltic States.
September 26, 2025
Several years ago Turkey shot down an intruding Russian aircraft. Putin didn’t like it but is now a friend of Erdogan again and since then Russia has not intruded into Turkish airspace. That is the answer.
September 26, 2025
I’m amazed that John Redwood is so confident that NATO would beat Russia. Even with the US active the best case would be a draw (mutual destruction).
Zelensky displayed the same confidence, indeed still does. There is speculation from the Ukrainian Armed Forces that he is not being properly informed about the state of the war. He is after all, only an actor delivering lines. Reality has no place in an actor’s world.
Britain needs leaders grounded in reality. Else we suffer the situation so beautifully demonstrated by Rachel ‘I’m going for growth’ even as she kiboshes the economy.
September 26, 2025
It was going to take weeks, then months, now its years. You have sounded just like Starmer going to stop the boats.
September 26, 2025
I agree with all you say on this. What I find impossible to understand though, is why Net Zero is considered by this Government, and indeed its immediate predecessors, to be more deserving of expenditure than national defence.
September 26, 2025
NET ZERO mitigates hugely against a sensible national defence policy the two are virtually incompatible. It also destroys the economy and demands imported electricity using undersea cables that are easily cut or blown up which again mitigates against a sensible defence policy.
September 26, 2025
Russia wouldn’t hesitate shooting down a NATO/UK aircraft in their territory ……double woke standards, you kick back at a bully, you don’t give him your pocket-money
September 26, 2025
They did shoot down Gary Powers in May 1960 in his U2 reconnaissance aircraft, but it did not leaf to a shooting war. Neither did the Cuban Missile Crisis (which also involved US missiles in Turkey aimed at the USSR).
September 26, 2025
Here’s what the RAF said on the subject in February 2022: “The RAF has routinely intercepted, identified and escorted Russian aircraft transiting through international airspace in the vicinity of the UK. Russian military aircraft have never entered UK sovereign airspace without authorisation.” (Independent, 4/2/2022)
The RAF did so 136 times 2005-2022. For all that time, no Russian aircraft in fact entered our airspace without being authorised. If any had done so since, you can be sure we would have heard about it. The whole thing is concocted to justify increased arms spending we can’t afford.
September 26, 2025
Did they mention that they will no longer be using useless white pilots for this in the near future given their two tier diversity agenda. They will be various shades of brown, disabled women in the main not pregnant ones as they will be on maternity leave and might have trouble ejecting if needed.
September 26, 2025
Can’t afford or don’t need?
September 26, 2025
Smoke & Mirrors, just like Rwanda, Labour can now claim illegal migration is high due to the people not backing Digital I.D.s
As mentioned above, in many comments, the real threat is from within ….russia might test our borders, but the muslim world are actually landing thousands !!!
September 26, 2025
Putin is testing our response and waiting for the time when his comrades in the UK have achieved their task and we no longer have the ability through Net Zero impoverishment, de-industrialisation and electrification nor the will through social breakdown caused by the mass immigration of people with completely different cultures, histories and allegiances. To quote Professor Gordon Hughes of the renewable Energy Foundation: “In the period 2002 to the present, the total cost to the electricity consumer of those renewable electricity subsidy schemes that we can quantify has amounted to approximately £220 billion (in 2024 prices), equivalent to nearly £8,000 per household. The annual subsidy cost is currently £25.8 billion a year, a sum equivalent to nearly fifty per cent of UK annual spending on defence. Subsidy to renewable electricity generators now comprises about 40% of the total cost of electricity supply in the United Kingdom”.