The costs of high rates of low wage and no wage migration

Much of the public deeply resents the spending priority afforded to migration. We read that the government is being asked to pay yet more money for its hasty and botched cancellation of the Rwanda plan, rubbing salt into wounds when we do not have the deterrent effect of somewhere to send illegal migrants which the government clearly needs. The government pays large sums to the French to stop the boats without conditions and accepts the French have broken their promise to tackle some of the boats in shallow water before they depart when their intentions are clear.The government is paying large sums for hotel accommodation they promised to close down, and paying more to convert older buildings for use as migrant hostels in an attempt to avoid more hotels as illegals continue to arrive. The government is paying top up benefits to migrants, and a full range of benefits to dependents that come to join them. Migrants taking up lower wage employment qualify for subsidised housing, free NHS, free school places and the full range of public services. The press have recently highlighted the costs of providing free English language tuition for recent arrivals. The arrival of a large number of people speaking a wide range of languages has raised language costs in a number of relevant public services.

In 2025-16 the EU was trying to respond to the large numbers of migrants arriving across its borders.They made a proposal that countries that would not take their fair share of these EU arrivals should have to make payments to the countries that did take them. Their calculation suggested that the set up and early year costs of a new low or no pay migrant were 250,000 Euros.
I tried to work out what a similar cost would be for the UK leaving the EU. I saw that the EU figure had plausibility. If many people come then the state does need to build new flats or houses to accommodate them, and these will need to be heavily subsidised with the public sector picking up the initial capital cost. There needs to be more school places and surgery and hospital capacity, with capital costs to increase the capacity of schools and health centres, and with more staff being recruited to man them. Adding more people on a big scale also means putting in more road and rail capacity. Meanwhile the private sector has to spend on more broadband, water, electricity and gas supply.

The case for controlled immigration has been clear and popular with the majority of voters for a long time. The Treasury idea that high levels of migration were fine because they added to GDP was always disbelieved by many of the voters. It is difficult to understand why clever Treasury officials never wanted to highlight the public spending consequences of unrestricted migration when it was bound to have a very visible impact on capital and revenue budgets for key state services and for benefits.

6 Comments

  1. Peter Wood
    February 1, 2026

    Good Morning,

    ”The Treasury idea that high levels of migration were fine because they added to GDP …”
    And there we have it, at last an admission from a former minister that a powerful agency in the Tory government never wanted to reduce immigration, of any kind, and so it occurred.
    We must therefore deduce that all the public remonstrations, to ‘stop the boats’ and such was just gaslighting the voter. The truth eventually comes out. It’s shameful more people didn’t speak out at the time.

    Reply I did. This was a belief of officials, not Ministers.

    Reply
    1. Lifelogic
      February 1, 2026

      The phrase “rub the faces of the public in diversity” (often quoted as “rub our noses in diversity”) originated from allegations that the UK Labour government in the early 2000s deliberately promoted mass immigration to change the country’s social makeup and challenge opponents of such policies.
      Origin and Context
      The Allegation: In 2009, Andrew Neather, a former adviser to Labour ministers Tony Blair and Jack Straw, claimed that immigration policy was intended, in part, to “rub the Right’s nose in diversity and render their arguments out of date”.
      Political Impact: The claims suggested that this approach was a deliberate,, yet often quiet, policy to transform the UK into a more multicultural society, while publicly focusing on the economic benefits of immigration.

      Reply
    2. Ian Wragg
      February 1, 2026

      Then why didn’t Minister out a stop to it. Tha Cameron government certainly under Osborne thought it was a good idea. And so did Boris. Mrs May signed us up to the UN migration pact. Discuss

      Reply
  2. Lifelogic
    February 1, 2026

    We have the direct costs then the increases crime, policing, housing, legal, translation, benefit costs for them plus extended families costs then you render the economy far less competitive and this has huge further costs. NET Zero does this too on top of the Trillions it would costs directly.

    Somone on Any Questions yesterday asked if HS2 whould ever be finished and was it the biggest waste of money by government recently – to the latter no Net Zero is the larges several £ trillions for zero benefit, the lockdowns and vaccines £600 billion this for huge net harms. HS2 might perhaps be worth about 10% of its £100+ bn cost to build plus all the disruption during the build,

    Reply
  3. Peter Gardner
    February 1, 2026

    The situation is quite incomprehensible if one believes the government is working in the interests of the British people of these islands. Clearly it is not. Why not? Because it hates these British people and wants them replaced with migrants of cultures that are not merely different or variations on the same theme but hostile to and inimicable with British culture. It views the burden on taxpayers as reparations and the swamping of public services to the exclusion of native Brits as just punishment for the sins of white people.
    Starmer’s Gang much prefers these illegal immigrants to the host population. Its policy announcements are deceits and lies intended to quell the rising anger, but its actions show its true colours. It hates the British. It wants anyone but the British in these Islands.

    Reply
  4. Lifelogic
    February 1, 2026

    One in four Brits would be better off on benefits than working from the Express this would not surprise me what a crazy tax and benefit system we have!

    Reply

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