The run up to the budget

The latest figures for GDP growth show the year to August has delivered reasonable growth in services led by computing and digital services. This is the biggest part of  our economy so overall growth remains better than the sluggish main  EU economies whilst remaining  below digital leaders USA.  Production industries  have  been flat, whilst construction has fallen.

The collapse of new housebuilding is dragging down growth. There is no sign of a surge in new Council housing which Labour promised and used to get the OBR to up their forecast a little on the back of the promised package of measures. Rising government borrowing rates knocking on to  mortgage rates are holding back private housing work.Labour will discover wanting more Council houses rather than Housing  Association ones means far fewer new homes with public money .far more of the cost of a new Council home than of a new Housing Association one counts as public spending owing to the absence of private sector money in the Council home.

The new Chancellor has allowed some speculation on new and higher taxes whilst apparently realising that is a bad idea which hits confidence and stops new investment. He said he could not rule out harmful tax rises, then later did rule  out Capital Gains Tax , leaving open other  feared tax rises. Labour had anyway ruled out any increases in the three main taxes in their Manifesto showing you can rule out tax rises. What a stupid muddle.

There is no sign of a plan to control runaway benefit spending, no wish to find the much needed extra money for defence that John Healey resigned over. Most commentators think the forecasts will find the Treasury too close to  the minimum level of reserve for comfort. The latest rumour is yet more tax on banks. They already pay 3% more as a supplement on the standard  25% Corporation Tax, and pay a levy on their balance sheet. These two bank taxes already make it less worthwhile to keep and use money in London. If John Healey makes it worse more banks might divert more capital abroad.That will be another anti growth policy.

 

2 Comments

  1. Lifelogic
    October 18, 2026

    Everything Reeves and Starmer did was anti-growth and it seems Burnham and Healey are set to continue with this deluded agenda. For growth we need to abandon Net Zero, the workers rights bill, the tenants rights bill, the abolition of non doms, the wars on motorists, the hard working and the self employed, the vast market rigging in energy, healthcare, housing, education, banking… we need to stop low skilled net cost and often criminal immigration and reduce taxes and the size of the state. We also need to cut benefits and make work pay. We are in a doom loop and spiralling towards to doom. This government has a duff compass on every issue.

    Reply
  2. Lifelogic
    October 18, 2026

    Labour are, as expected, proving even worse than the 14 years of the net zero, tax to death, open borders Con-socialists. The Sunak Hunt Con-Socialists who even gifted them their huge majority six months early.

    Reply

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