Author: johnredwood

As I have offered a rare post on the official Opposition I am  offering  a couple of posts on the Lib Dems and Reform. In  the last General election the  Lib Dems got 12% of the vote and 72 seats. Reform got 14% of the vote and 5 seats. In recent polling Reform has surged to 30% and Lib Dems are around 11%.

Both these parties support a big change to our electoral system, favouring some variant of Proportional representation. The Lib Dems made a referendum on the alternative vote system a prime demand before entering Coalition in 2010. The public decisively rejected it. The Lib Dems now argue there are better systems.

I would urge both parties to drop this key demand. The Lib Dems disproved one of their own arguments about themselves  for PR in 2024 . They say  letting the person with most votes win results in unfair representation for smaller parties.Yet  Lib Dems with 12% of the votes  won nearly 12% of the seats. It is true the Reform vote was widely spread so they got nothing like their vote share. Conservatives also got fewer seats than vote share, but as the Lib Dems showed this is not always the outcome. Challenger parties under our system can target and win more seats.

The big reason to drop the policy is PR in a 4-5 party system will usually result in no party having a majority. Any party wanting a share in government has to abandon their Manifesto and promise to hammer out a compromise government programme with others. Voters are ignored as pledges are dumped in the scramble for power.That is less democratic,as the continent shows.

Campaigning for PR by parties that lost the last election can make them look like a bad loser. If by any chance the two parties pro PR did win a combined majority of seats they would be able  to vote through a PR measure given party discipline in the early days.  Some of their MPs might be  concerned that PR would lose them their seats at the next election. If they declined they then appear as more politicians who do not truly believe in the big ideas they propose.

If a party that believed in PR won a majority under our current system they might be tempted to break their promise to introduce PR.

Hearing a BBC Radio 4 programme on the HS 2 “Business case” reminded me of why I voted No to the decision in principle in Parliament to proceed with HS2. It made me think further about the great embroidery, extension and stupidity of many modern government business cases. The more complex and expensive they got, the worse in  practice they proved to be.

The BBC took us back over one of the big disagreements during the early years of Business Case expansion on HS 2. In the first case cutting the time of the journey gave the country a “gain”. It meant those on the train were  assumed to be travelling business people, would become more productive as they would save previous minutes from the journey which they could use to work in the office on arrival. So the designers went for maximum speed at considerable extra cost to save minutes for these mythical hard workers who couldn’t work on the train.

In later iterations it was decided with new technology business people could work very effectively on the train with wi fi, laptop and smart phone, so all that “gain” disappeared. The modellers decided there were collateral gains for everyone else in the economy from the ability of a business elite to travel well with laptop on a new fast line. These too became exaggerated.

To me a business case is not based on guessing what people might do on  the train or attributing side benefits to others. These are matters of judgement that do not generate revenue for the train operator or the state, in this case the same institution. As a businessman my experience of evaluating a new investment was based on asking two simple questions. Could the investment save total and average costs of production? Could it add significant revenue? It had to add enough extra business and or subtract enough existing cost to ensure there was a profit on the investment. It needed to guarantee it  could  cover its costs of capital.

This should have applied to evaluating HS2. HS 2 was never going to add a lot to total passenger journeys. It was designed to switch some passengers off existing services by offering them a faster and better service. Some thought this could be done whilst charging  at a premium price. Others thought the HS 2 nationalised rail would need to undercut the existing rail providers to draw passengers away from the present services. This led to the danger  that it would cut revenues and prices on current lines, leading to the demand for more subsidies for existing providers. A modest win for train travellers would be a big loss for taxpayers.  It was always likely given an estimated shortfall of demand in the early years of HS 2 that HS 2 would be loss making from the start.

Part of the way through the project the government switched its case from greater speed to help business to the need for more capacity. Covid then undermined the case for more capacity. It was always likely the cheaper solution to provide more capacity for growth would be improved digital signalling on the existing tracks, to allow more trains per hour to run on a railway that already existed.

The biggest reason the Business case was wildly too optimistic lay in the forecast costs. A £37bn project became a £100 bn plus project which then had to be cut down drastically in size to limit the excessive costs. It remains a major financial disaster the more that is spent on it. The taxpayer is unlikely to see any normal cash return on this investment. It neither makes rail travel less costly nor offers the hope of enough additional   passengers.

Every time the PM and the Foreign Secretary step abroad there is more money for a foreign country. Meanwhile at home the arrival of thousands of extra migrants adds to the costs of housing and looking after them. Here is  some of the extra spending this government has done that is annoying many taxpayers. It explains why this government has created a budget crisis for itself.

1. Money to Mauritius for Chagos give away. 100 years of planned spending, starting at £101 m a year but rising.   Say £20bn
2. Money to Singapore for energy transition  £70 m
3. Grants to home and foreign car makers to subsidise battery cars  £650 m
4. Other subsidies and grants for battery vehicles and chargers   £3.85 bn
5. Costs of illegal migrants and asylum seekers £5m a day or £1.8bn a year
6. Extra money to France to police their border – no figure given on top of £480 m past payments
7. Unspecified open ended costs of Scunthorpe steel, said to be £700,000 a day of losses, to come out of a general £2.5bn steel investment fund
8.  Increasing government administration budget by £154 m 2026-7 over 2025-26
9. HS 2 overruns  now saying a total Phase One to Birmingham cost of up to £80 bn  (original 2009 budget for whole railway £37.5bn)
10. Gift of fish to EU worth around £12 bn over next twelve years

I will run a few pieces on the other Opposition parties after my rare posting about the Conservatives.

One of the most distinctive policies the Lib Dems and Reform are adopting is more nationalisation.

Both parties think the taxpayer should run the water industry. LibDems want to convert the  companies into public benefit concerns. Reform wants to buy a 50% stake in them with taxpayer money. The government says it would cost £100 bn to buy the whole industry or  presumably around £50 bn for a half share. The Conservative Opposition and the government do not think this a good use of taxpayer money . They are against a big increase in government borrowing for this purpose when the state is already too much in debt.

The Lib Dems claim they do not need to nationalise. However, they want to put environmentalists on the boards, put the environment as a key aim, limit profits, control remuneration and returns to shareholders.  This means removing shareholder rights and rewards under normal company law. Existing shareholders would expect compensation or buy out. Why would the private sector invest more in public projects if a government treats shareholders in that way?

Lib Dems and Reform support the renationalisation of rail being undertaken by government. Both wish to see Scunthorpe Steel  renationalised. The government has not taken over the shares  in steel but is starting an expensive intervention into the company.

If a government did buy out the Scunthorpe shares presumably for very little it would have to commit to large and continuing subsidies . In order to save new steel making it would need to shut the two ageing blast furnaces and reline with extensive maintenance probably quite soon.  Maybe better to commit to building two modern blast  furnaces   and to allow MOD, rail and other state  steel buyers access to the steel to provide some orders..

It is difficult  to see the advantage of nationalising an old works when with less money you could co fund a new works with a partner that knows how to  make and sell steel.

Both parties need to reconsider. Nationalised British Steel lost taxpayers a fortune and spent much of its time making people redundant and planning its next works closure. Nationalised water tipped plenty of sewage into rivers and the sea and did not even measure and time the discharges or tell us what it had done. Water quality and investment improved with privatisation.

This is the talk I gave to the Policy  Unit in 1984 when we were advising on a potential reform of the City which became Big Bang. It was released with other surviving government papers after 30 years.I re issue it as Rachel Reeves is saying she plans a Big Bang style City reform. I don’t think so.The Reform Margaret unleashed brought in billions of new capital, new ideas, new jobs.

I have explained many times that this wesbite is not an official Conservative website and it does  not wish to spend a lot of time on Opposition party matters. It concentrates  as under the Conservatives on government policy and outcomes and encourages criticisms and proposals to make government policy better.

A few of you wish to endlessly submit the same criticisms of the past Conservative government, which I usually decline to post. This site allowed plenty of adverse comment when the Conservatives were in power. The electorate made clear their verdict. Your criticisms are now out of date as Conservative policy is changing. An election is a long way off so this is not the time to consider Opposition party draft Manifestos.

Please note that the Leader of the Opposition has apologised for excess migration and has announced new proposals to cut both legal and illegal migration further. She has announced that the net zero targets are unattainable, and has begun setting out  polices to reverse the worse follies of current net zero policy.  She has opposed the National Insurance, farm tax, VAT on school fees and small business tax rises. She has proposed welfare cuts, opposed the payments to Mauritius and the EU and high public sector wage awards not linked to productivity.  None of this is understood in the submissions some people want to make to this site. The electorate chose the Conservatives to be the Official Opposition and they are leading Parliamentary activity against unhelpful government policies and actions.The Opposition tables amendments to government budgets and bills based on these newly defined views.

This government is  more than one year into office. With its huge majority it could have changed anything over the last year that needed fixing. It has spent the year claiming everything it inherited was broken. It has gone on to break things on a much larger scale.

The Conservatives were cast aside because they allowed in far too many migrants to come and failed to deliver on their promise to stop the small boats. In their last six months they did toughen the law which started to reduce legal migration. The Rwanda plan was beginning to bring down illegal numbers even before flights had taken off.

Labour has now diluted the  law changes. It dumped the Rwanda scheme and has presided  over a big increase in illegal migration. It is proposing  more safe routes for people to come.It is negotiating to let in many more young people from Europe.  It has speeded up consideration of asylum claims leading to a big increase in numbers of claims granted. This is the opposite of the change many voters wanted.

We are now running on a Labour budget. By the time the Conservatives  were kicked out inflation was 2%, the Uk had been the fastest growing G 7 economy for six months  and unemployment  had fallen to 4.2%. The long term Conservative record had brought many more jobs and much lower unemployment. In 2010 unemployment was 7.8% and inflation 3%.People felt taxes  were too high in 2024 and growth should be faster.

Labour claimed the  one day peak  interest rates under Truss  crashed the economy. They have pushed longer term rates well above worst Truss  levels and kept them there all 2025 so far thanks to losing control of spending and borrowing.

Labour have put inflation  up to 3.6%. They have put unemployment up. They have put  taxes up. UK growth has been damaged. These again were changes people did not want.

Labour promised to end NHS strikes. In the first year they gave a large pay award to buy peace. This year strikes are threatened again with another very large rise being sought.

Governments usually look silly and become weaker when they seek to discipline their own MPs for disagreeing with them over policy. It is bizarre that  Labour MPs are losing the whip over the policy of cutting disability benefits when the government itself has said it was wrong and has changed most of the policy. Many Labour MPs have long proposed a bigger state and sought more people dependent on benefits, so it should have come as no surprise to their leader.

I was concerned to hear BBC Radio 4 turn interviews with Rachael Maskell into Chief Whip type interviews where the interviewer puts pressure on the interviewee to change their  disloyal stance. A neutral broadcaster surely should concentrate on the policy disagreements and the drama of the votes without identifying so prominently with the heavy handed and wrong headed approach of the government was  unsurprisingly failing.

Maybe it is because the PM spends so much time wanting to please  foreign leaders, and because he thinks international law and the EU should direct more of our laws and budgets that he does not get the mood of the country. Many of us are fed up with the huge sums given to foreign governments and new migrants. We want that spending controlled. We are not wanting pensioner or disability benefits hit.,

Even The Bank of England saw more  inflation coming this year, though they estimated a little less than we got in June. Education was up, thanks to the VAT on school fees. Services are up, pushed in part by the big increase in National insurance. The cost of housing is the biggest contributor to the wider measure of inflation CPI(H) which soared 4.1% . No wonder when we keep inviting in thousands more people but fail build enough new homes for them.

The Bank is keeping UK rates much higher than European or Japanese rates to try to squeeze inflation down. It is fighting the government occasionally by not cutting as fast as they would like.Even the Bank can see the government’s tax and public sector wage policies are pushing up prices.

So what should the Bank do now, with wider inflation double the CPI target rate?

For a UK government that has no money they are very good at spending. That is of course   why they do not have enough money for crucial services and welfare benefits. This week it was the turn again of the battery car industry. This time they have been offered a £650 m bung to try to bring the price of battery cars down a bit. The subsidy is not even limited to UK car makers, saying it is for UK and other manufacturers. Broadcasts say it does not apply to Chinese cars, yet that does not appear in the official UK government press release. We await details of which cars do qualify. Whatever the outcome China will be a winner as they export many of the batteries or materials for the batteries which is such a big proportion of the total cost of a battery car.

In the same week the Foreign Secretary decided that Singapore, with GDP per head two thirds higher than the UK, needed a £70 m grant from UK taxpayers to speed transition to low carbon activity. Singapore performs so much better than we do economically thanks to lower taxes and  better state spending control.

The government statement said that its spending plans now include £4.5bn to “supercharge the switch to electric vehicles”. Battery cars enjoy tax advantages. When supplied free of charge through the Motability scheme they are also VAT free. The government is giving subsidy to companies to install charger points, benefitting Chinese car exports as well as domestic product. They are also spending on encouraging home charging, which tends to help better paid people who have driveways and larger homes where it is easier to fit a charger.

These policies are damaging as well as being expensive. They are hastening the collapse of the UK car industry, based as it is on successful petrol and diesel models. It is helping China with its dominant  share of the battery and battery car market. The UK is not protecting its industry with high tariffs against Chinese cars in the way the EU and US do. As with the other net zero policies this is a policy speeding the de- industrialisation of the UK.