Author: johnredwood

The first quarter trade figures for the UK show a sharp decline in the trade deficit, Much of this relates to higher stock levels last year which needed using up. The figures also show, however, some shift in our pattern of imports, bringing in less from the EU and more from the rest of the world. This probably reflects the aggressive and unhelpful stance of the EU over trade matters.

If we compare the month of March 2021 with March 2019 before the pandemic disrupted economies and trade we see a £1.3bn fall in imports of EU miscellaneous manufactures, a £2.8bn fall in imports of EU machinery and transport items, a £0.4bn fall in EU food and a £2bn fall in EU chemicals. In contrast the same period sees a rise of £0.2bn in rest of the world imported miscellaneous manufactures, a much smaller £0.5bn fall in rest of the world machinery and transport, a £0.1bn increase in rest of the world food and a £0.6bn increase in rest of the world chemical imports. It is always a better idea to be helpful to customers, as the rest of the world is demonstrating.

The left-right analysis stemmed from the division of the French National Assembly in to supporters of the King and supporters of the Revolution, with the King’s people sitting to the right and the revolutionaries to the left. As some have mentioned here it  no longer represents a great way of explaining the complex positions and views of  modern political parties.

Today in the UK as we can see from recent election results there is still a divide between Remain and Leave. Maybe a quarter of the country still regrets the decision to leave the EU and actively encourages the Lib Dems, SNP and Labour to adopt negative tactics against all things related to Brexit instead of accepting the democratic verdict. Labour’s decision to send a Remain former MP who had done his bit to derail and delay Brexit into Hartlepool where most people want Brexit was a needless added difficulty for the  party in that important by election. All the time these Opposition parties fight the will of the people and the reality that we are now out they will find it very difficult to build more support and creep towards a majority.

The SNP are trying to divide the country over whether the Union of the UK should remain or whether it is time to split up the UK. The EU from outside is also seeking to split the UK with its one sided, heavy handed and legalistic approach to Northern Ireland relations with the Republic. None of these identity issues, Brexit/Union/EU relations is a right/left matter, with people from all parts of the so called right-left spectrum holding differing views on identity. We now know people have been  willing to move their vote from Labour and Lib Dems to Brexit parties and then to Conservatives owing to the refusal of Labour and the Lib Dems to back and help Brexit. In Scotland Some Conservative and Labour voters were voting tactically for each other  to support the Union.

A third important division in  our country is between lovers of liberty and supporters of more government control. There are some lovers of liberty on the left, as well as many on the right. There is an authoritarian left and a civil libertarian left, just as there is a law and order right and a freedom loving right. CV 19 has brought this out , with some supporting prolonged lockdown and precise instructions over how we should lead our lives whilst others support people making more of  their own judgements. Again traditional party lines do not reflect this division.

Meanwhile the main parties agree on a lot. They agree about climate change and the need to pursue net zero. They agree about membership of NATO, the desirability of the so called international rules based order, and the need to encourage tolerance and understanding for all people whatever their background. They agree about the importance of the NHS and free schooling.  Challenger parties to these views have attracted very little support.

There needs to be a clear division on economic policy, with Conservatives backing growth through setting competitive  tax rates, encouraging free enterprise, backing self employment and going for growth.The next few months are best spent securing a strong recovery, helping create many  more well paid jobs and bringing home Brexit wins.

The Queen’s speech debate gives the government a great opportunity to set out a vision of a better future for the UK, and to specify those actions government needs to take to bring it about.

Let us assume that the overarching vision is one of recovery from the ravages of the anti pandemic policies. We will doubtless hear plenty about levelling up, and about building back better. It is important the message of Hartlepool and the other places where Conservatives polled well is understood by the government. Voters in these places aspire for a better future for themselves, their families and their towns. They are  not asking for more government. They are asking for more personal and family success. They are  not expecting the state to do everything for them. They want the opportunities to build their own futures. Of course they would like the state to do what only the state can do. It does  need to improve the public transport and roads systems, and improve the look and use of public sector land and buildings, In some cases it needs to sell clapped out and run down public sector estate to someone who can use it better.

Much of it requires the state to do less and to let people keep more of their own money. Many want to own a home of their own. They are not looking for more social housing where they are told where to live and how the property will look and be maintained. More people want to get to retirement with a home they own and no rent bills to pay as pensioners.

Many people recognise they cannot work in a council office or a government administrative job. They want more chance to become self employed and build a decent business, or more better paid jobs in the private sector where they might get a   bonus or even a share participation. They see others elsewhere make capital out of their business ventures as well as enjoying a decent income. Aspiration includes working for yourself, building some capital, getting some savings so you have more options and more freedoms.

So what policies and laws does this need? It does mean lower tax rates so people can keep more of what they earn and save. It does mean government helping business to provide more affordable homes for sale. It does mean an exercise to remove barriers and costs to setting up and running your own business. It means government using its massive buying power to source more at home and less from abroad, to encourage local business successes. It means Councils who provide good public services, keep the public realm tidy,  but let the private sector get on with providing a wide array of goods and services to enrich lives and create more well paid livelihoods.

Nicola Sturgeon says if the PM and U.K. Parliament stick to their view there should be no Independence Referendum this Parliament we will be defying the wishes and will of the Scottish people. That simply is not true. In the constituency vote the SNP and Greens combined vote share was 49% meaning 51% voted for parties in favour of the Union. The Green and SNP vote share in the Regional section was 48.4%, with Alba adding another 1.7%. So overall averaging both votes supporters of the  Union and no referendum marginally held the majority.

Opinion polls suggest a slightly  larger majority for the Union in polls about a referendum vote. This is reflected in Sturgeon’s wish to delay the Independence vote she wants, hoping the case for independence will sway more  people. Her only criterion for wanting a ballot is going to be polls that imply a good chance of winning.

I support the  PM’s decision to oppose another vote. He can do so fairly on Sturgeon’s own argument that we should take the votes cast last Thursday as the guide.He can do so because the last referendum was agreed by all parties at the time to be a once in a generation vote. He can do so on the argument that such referendums are disruptive so should only be accepted after a long interval of calm  from constitutional upheaval.He can do so because there is a big majority for the  Union in the U.K. Parliament.

Both Labour and Lib Dems specialise in negative campaigning. They abuse Conservative MPs and Councillors, making false allegations and twisting what we say or ascribing views to us we have never held. Their fellow travellers on this site often do the same. They imply no decent person can vote Conservative and  claim an unfounded moral high ground. Indeed they seek to control and use language to rule out some decent  Conservative values and questions. The BBC often backs up these ideas.

Yesterday on the Today programme a couple of voters from  Hartlepool were put under pressure to explain why they voted Conservative, with the BBC seeking to suggest to them that somehow the culture of the party of Thatcher should have made that morally impossible! No mention that Margaret was our first female Prime Minister who won three huge General election mandates for her popular policies of cutting taxes, promoting wider ownership and recovering the UK from Labour’s high inflation and economic crash which led to a trip to the IMF to borrow and to be told to cut spending . I do not recall Labour voters in 1997 or SNP voters more recently being made to explain themselves and being told they were wrong to vote as they did.

In this latest set of elections Labour caricatured their own campaigning technique by spending all their national media time on vilifying Conservatives and making a wild series of  unsupported allegations, when people wanted to hear their approach to Cv 19 , economic recovery and getting wins from Brexit.

Keir Starmer rightly made Labour  dress smartly and show some respect for our flag. You need however to live a brand. In the Commons Labour MPs still queued up to support the EU side in disputes, to back the needs of foreigners and overseas countries  over the needs of U.K. voters, and above all to use Commons powers to develop their sleaze campaign instead of pushing a positive agenda.

Given the large number of people who voted Conservative a good starting point for Labour’s recovery would be to accept that many people enter Conservative politics to serve the public and make things better. By all means have some good disagreements with us, offer better solutions or different aims, but do not falsely claim Conservatives are in it for wrong motives and want to harm the interests of the very people who helped vote us in. It is not helping Labour, as it is as dishonest as it is negative.  A good opposition respects their opponents and presses hard for improvements or changes that the public wants. Running sleaze campaigns and nothing else can boomerang against the party. It means they have  nothing to say on how to govern better, and are vulnerable to counter accusations against the people in their own party who make mistakes or undertake criminal activity in public office.