Questions to the Chancellor before the spring statement

Growth

Will you remove the deeply damaging Jobs tax which has hit  confidence and undermined investment?

Will you remove the tax attack on family farms and small businesses, as you need them to expand to get growth?

Why do you think the US has been growing twice as fast as the UK? Will you copy their success, based on cheap energy and lower taxes?

Public spending

Have you calculated how much it costs to provide  subsidised housing, NHS service, school places and other public sector capital and services for each no income and low income migrant? How many can we afford?

Why is public sector productivity down 8.5% since  2019? When will it return to 2019 levels?

What action are you taking to boost public sector productivity? Why is there no recruitment freeze in place apart from medics, teachers and uniformed personnel?

Spending cuts

Why do you accept the need to reimburse the Bank of England for tens of billions of losses each year?

Why do you not take action to stem the losses and cost overruns at HS2, Network Rail and the Post Office?

Why do you want to cut disability payments and pensioner fuel allowance when there are so many easier and larger targets for savings?

 

 

Privatisation – the beginnings

 

 

 


 

 

John Redwood Background

 

I first met Sir Keith Joseph at All Souls when I was first elected a fellow at 21. He was a distinguished fellow and  a Cabinet Minister in the Heath government. I dared to tell him I thought the  government’s lurch to price and income controls, its inflationary monetary policy and ill judged dispute with the miners would mean losing the election. Keith took my insubordination well whilst assuring me they were bound to win. The government did not understand market economics or how people felt. When the Conservatives  asked the question Who governs? over the miners strike, the people responded “Not you”. The miners had a good case for a pay rise given the general inflation and the OPEC induced oil price surge.

 

After the election defeat Keith generously remembered my worries. He saw the damage caused by the policies they had followed and embarked on a radical rethink.  With Margaret Thatcher he set up the CPS to champion the new ideas. He appointed me to advise the  public spending and Treasury Committee of the Conservative Party  in Opposition. Setting future budgets and economic policy was central to the rethink of Conservative values, aims and policies which  he chaired. I took to them a way out of the financial problems they would inherit  Faced with sky high taxes, excessive spending and borrowing I proposed denationalising many public sector trading enterprises to remove their capital budgets and losses from the state budget and to bring in receipts to the Treasury. Keith asked me to chair a committee on denationalisation at the CPS . The CPS  gave me plenty of encouragement as together we set out detailed plans for a private future for most nationalised industries. I also chaired seminars for Nationalised Industry chairmen to prepare them for ways of raising more money and having access to private sector funds for the large modernisation programmes many of them needed. In 1983 Margaret Thatcher appointed  me to help her drive through a much enlarged privatisation programme in Downing Street. I continued to advise  and press for more sales as Head of the Policy Unit  and then as an MP and Minister. 

 

 

 

The case for privatisation

 

It seemed obvious in the mid 1970s looking at poor technically backward  bankrupt U.K. seeking loans from the IMF that we needed big changes. As an investment analyst I looked enviously at large profitable competitive US companies in important sectors like telecoms and energy and saw how far ahead of our nationalised industries they were. 

 

The U.K. state owned and ran the railways, the postal and phone systems, gas , electricity, coal, shipbuilding, aero engines, steel, weapons manufacture, some car assembly, some oil, water and waste water, refuse collection and much else. Many of these industries were starved of capital investment, made major strategic misjudgements and often generated losses. They added to state deficits and the overall state debt burden. Why not free the state of the heavy financial demands and free the businesses of the heavy hand of state control? 

 

I set out in books and articles how the UK’s post war big nationalisations like coal,rail and steel had led to many lost jobs, to large losses for taxpayers, and higher prices for customers. Privatisation could lift much of the financial burden, cut the chances of job loss and improve the quality and value for money of the goods and services. 

 

As soon as industry was privatised all its investment spending dropped out of the state budget. No longer was an improved telephone exchange or a renewed blast furnace competing with money for the NHS. The industries could increase their investment if  they could satisfy markets it was a profitable venture. 

 

Out of state control their losses no longer fell to taxpayers to meet. In the private sector they were more likely to be profitable so they would contribute more by way of business tax. The sale itself would generate a one off capital receipt which appeared as negative public spending in government accounts. 

 

The performance of privatised industries usually improved substantially after sale. Managers were paid bigger bonuses for better results. Many employees became shareholders or were given bonuses to align their interests with success of the company. 

 

As the state privatised it could introduce competition into monopoly services. Competition is the best regulator. As many critics of privatisation feared bad conduct once in private ownership the larger monopolistic businesses also could be given industry  specific regulators to preserve services or features people claimed to value. 

 

The battle of ideas in the 1970 s

 

Most establishment and academic opinion in the 1970s believed the great nationalisations of the mid century were the right way to proceed. There was little analysis of them as trading businesses and an unwillingness to contrast  them with private enterprise  comparators in the USA. I sought with the CPS and others to set out just what had gone wrong and how the state,the employees and the customers were suffering.

Our steel industry had attracted large public investment to put in five big modern integrated plants only to spend the 1970 s and 1980 s seeking customers to justify the large potential  production. Political debate was all about progressive closures under Labour and Conservatives. 

Our telecoms industry was still putting in electro mechanical switching from a British produced system  the telecoms monopoly wanted which did not sell abroad. The US was well advanced with electronic switching. 

The water industry had a network of ageing pipes for a smaller Victorian population. It could not get the large sums needed to expand and renew its networks. 

The electricity industry depended heavily on coal power stations that posed air plllution issues and were only 32% thermally efficient.The rail industry was in retreat, losing much of its freight business as well as experiencing declining passenger travel. The coal industry was constantly closing puts claiming they were no longer economic. With the advent of North Sea gas it lost market share rapidly. 

All this needed explaining to counter the nationalisation bias and optimism. The nationalisers where they did accept problems usually blamed a shortage of subsidy and investment money from the government. It was remarked at the time we did not own the nationalised industries, they controlled us. The Chairmen were in a powerful position to demand the state covered their losses as they could threaten cuts or big price rises in crucial services.  Most  were not in a strong enough position with clear enough plans to implement large scale modernisation investment.  

By 1979 the CPS  had plans a plenty to sell assets, spin off businesses, privatise whole concerns, introduce competition and raise expectations. I produced a grid of all the nationalised industries, setting out their financial results, their investment needs, the assets they could sell, the opportunities to sell all or part of the business, the way employee shareholdings could be introduced and the main issues a privatisation would arouse.

 

 

Why is the UK economy debate so distorted?

The government behaves as if UK taxes and public spending are too low. It complains about past government austerity. It sets bizarre fiscal rules based around OBR forecasts of five years hence that are bound to be wrong. It puts up taxes on jobs and assets that were bound to destroy growth and lead to an exodus of wealth and talent. The media helps them frame a debate about this illusory world of past austerity and present false choices.

The truth is the last six years have seen an explosion of public spending, up 55% in cash terms and up strongly in real terms. Inflation was around 25% so the real increase was around 30%.  There has been a major expansion of the civil service, of NHS staff and of employees in the wide public sector. There has been no shortage of cash or  people. There has been a collapse in productivity.

At the same time there has been a large increase in low income and no income legal migrants, and in illegal migrants who get to stay. This has driven up demand for subsidised housing, utilities and a wide range of public services.

The way to control public spending is to put an end to mass migration , and to engage urgently and purposefully with the need to  get productivity above 2019 levels again. The  state should not be spending more but spending better, It should not be inviting in hundreds of thousands to add to housing and NHS waiting lists.

The Labour government misled us in the original EU referendum

The Labour government of Harold Wilson sent  every voter a pamphlet advising us to vote to stay in the EEC. A crucial promise was made

”There was a threat  to employment in Britain from the movement in the Common Market towards an Economic and Monetary Union. This could have forced us to accept fixed exchange rates for the pound, restricting industrial growth and so putting jobs at risk . This threat has been removed”

Well it was not. As they rightly forecast EMU would  destroy jobs which is what happened when the UK was pushed into it by all 3 main parties.

The tract also assured us we would not lose our Parliamentary sovereignty. It said

”It is the Council of Ministers who take the important decisions…The Minister representing Britain can veto any new law or tax if he considers it to be against British interests”

Instead the EEC/EU went over to qualified majority votes where we could be ignored or overridden.

 

The EU are still out to ensnare us

I find it odd that hardened Remain supporters claim moral and intellectual superiority whilst reading and understanding little of the EU or our relationship with it.

They think the Uk can only grow if we sell more goods to the EU. At the same time their net zero policies ban the oil, gas, oil products, petrol and diesel cars that made up the leading items we exported. I set out yesterday for them the big surge in service exports to non EU and how our trade is now dominated  by services and non EU markets, but they will ignore that.

Now they want the Uk to be able to get some money and orders  out of a borrowed fund of 150 bn the EU plans for weapons they are  buying.Why? We have our own money to buy weapons. We need to use that to expand  our own weapons industry.  If we joined in their fund we would need to take joint responsibility for all the extra debt. They will need to buy from UK companies if they want certain products anytime soon. If they refuse it will be their loss.

The PM has shown how divided over  Ukraine the EU is. He has demonstrated that NATO remains our best way of encouraging defence collaboration. He has also proved that as in 1940 the UK has to arm to be able to defend our islands without European help.

France wants to grab more of our fish, and prevent us rebuilding our once self sufficiency with our own trawlers. We need to take back control as transition in fish ends. They have plundered our seas and taken most of our fish for far too long.

They want to put us back under their  laws , pretending that would be good for trade. UK companies need to be free to design and make things for global markets, not impeded by the EU single recipe.

 

 

 

The issue of trade

  • The bulk of our economic activity is home output for UK people. More than half our overseas trade is with non EU countries and over half our trade is in services, not goods. Yet  many in government go on and on about how to get growth we need to boost exports of goods to Europe. Remain supporters cling to the long disproven idea that our goods trade with the EU would fall with Brexit and lead to lower GDP.

The main reason the UK is not growing today is the anti business budget last year which stopped a good growth in the first half of the year and threatens more damage to UK business when the jobs tax kicks in in April.indeed, growth in just the first quarter of 2024 was more than the Bank of England forecast for the whole of 2925 after the disaster  budget.

Since 2016 when we decided  to leave the EU exports are up from £575 bn to £837 bn or 45%. Since we left in 2020 they are up from £624 bn or a third. They are up by more with the rest of the world than the EU and services are up by more than goods,  but that was also the trend in our later tears in the EU. The EU has been growing too slowly. The rest of the world has been growing faster and is keener on our exports.

Trump tariffs have not yet had any effect on the  numbers. Their inflationary effects will be the US, not on us.  The UK did scrap all EU tariffs on intermediates when we left the EU and all tariffs on goods we do not make, to stop taxing ourselves. The UK should drop the damaging carbon border tax or tariff which the EU proposed and which we have still not dropped. It will put up our inflation and anger the US, inviting retaliation.

Current Uk industrial and energy policies are designed to drive down our goods and oil exports by banning oil,gas, petrol  and diesel cars and by giving us such dear energy our high energy using  industries cannot compete. It is the net zero policy, not Brexit that will lose us national output and exports.

Stand down the coalition of the willing

The coalition of the willing is not needed. If there is no peace to police there is no need. If there is an eventual ceasefire Putin will not accept UK troops in Ukraine.

Instead there is a bigger moral and political choice to be made. Ukraine wants many more weapons and ammunition. The US is wanting to supply less. Should European countries greatly increase their support for Ukraine and for a longer war? Should the UK do more?

Measured as a percentage of GDP the US and UK have led with gifts of military equipment. Germany has been the best of the major EU countries. France and Italy have been the laggards offering under a third  of the US/UK levels.

Getting Ukraine to fight  on alone means more deaths and destruction but could it bring victory? There is rightly no US/ UK wish to go to war with Russia.

There is a case to say as the EU has strong views on the Russian invasion and has land frontiers with Russia and Ukraine we should expect all these  EU countries who have so far contributed little to pick up the  challenge. France could lead  it as her President makes plenty of warlike speeches.

The struggle is after all between Russia seeking to govern Ukraine after seizing it by violent invasion, and the EU governing Ukraine after helping   a Ukraine government that supports EU membership  .

The UK should step up defence spend but on home defence.Our needs are better defences against missile and drone attack, and  an enhanced navy and airforce to protect our islands and trade routes.

Welfare reform

Labour and Conservative agree the welfare bill is too high and growing too fast. They both agree it needs to be brought down by helping hundreds of thousands of people of working age into jobs. They are both particularly worried about 1 million young people not in education, employment or training.

Labour flirted with the idea of cutting the real value of Personal Independence payments.That was a bad idea. People need to be assessed and then paid extra  money to get the support they need to assist in managing their disability.

Second thoughts led them to decide to make it more difficult to qualify for the payment.

Labour also think they need to tighten criteria for other benefits, and remove entitlements for under 22 s. Presumably they will look into the surge in mental health cases. Some argue that whilst people with recognised medical conditions that need medication or other treatment of course need benefits, too many are unhappy or out of sorts but are not mentally ill. Getting a job and entering into the activity and social contact that work brings could be helpful to the person. There remains the issue of conditionality. How many job offers can someone turn down whilst still keeping full benefits?

It is difficult to achieve the change of behaviours government wants in such a large and expensive system. They are talking about a possible saving if £5 bn in five years time. They have promised an extra £1 bn spend on helping people into work. This needs legislation. Difficult see any savings this year or next.

They should cut back severely on work visas and legal migration and reverse the anti business budget if they really want to get many more off benefits and into jobs.

Let us keep some heroes

The attack on Shakespeare by a Trust set up to commemorate a great writer is yet another unwelcome essay in loathing our history, culture and traditions.

Many of us wish to be proud of our country, to remember its best days, its finest hours, its greatest people and its best achievements.

William Shakespeare is admired, read and enacted all round the  world. He is generally acclaimed as a great writer, able to capture eternal truths about human nature and the human condition. His words, characters and plots cross the centuries and national boundaries all round the world.

I will write occasional pieces about our history and the great causes and achievements our country has recorded. Today I begin with a brief comment on the great figures I particularly revere.

I rate Elizabeth I as a great politician who survived threats to her life whilst  her Catholic sister was Queen to emerge as England’s greatest monarch.

I regard William Shakespeare as the world’s greatest dramatist.

J Turner was a great artist. His Fighting Temeraire captures the passing of the age of sail to steam, as Rain, Steam and Speed  records the arrival of the railway.

Josiah Wedgwood was a great entrepreneur who changed the face of ceramics, developed marketing,  built  an advanced  factory and pioneered better treatment of employees.

Nelson was the greatest military captain, containing and defeating the imperial forces of Napoleon.

 

Productivity

I am pleased to see my long standing interest in the collapsing productivity of the UK public sector has now  become a central government preoccupation . They are right that the public accounts have been driven out of balance by a £40 bn loss of productivity since 2019. There are things they can do to wrestle it back.

They should start with a freeze on all external recruitment of people other than medics, teachers and uniformed personnel,This would slim staff numbers by around 7% a year, or 140,000 posts. Ministers should have the  power to approve outside appointees where there is a bad skills shortage in the public sector.

Abolishing NHS England can help if good decisions are made about how much is still run from the centre  and by whom in the Health Department. Saving 9000 posts if they do achieve that is small in a service employing more than 1.5 million full time equivalents. If they are getting rid of senior managers redundancies can be costly and are upsetting to some  who stay as well as to those who are fired.

Sir Kier talks about deregulating and   stripping out unwanted independent bodies. The Lord Chancellor had the perfect chance this week to get rid of the Sentencing Council when she said she disagreed with its most recent report and decisions. Her failure to back a Conservative amendment to the law to sort this out shows this policy has yet to embed in government actions.