Author: johnredwood

Listening to some people about the Autumn Statement, it appears you don’t get much for £4 trillion these days. That’s the amount the government plans to spend in the five years of this current Parliament. They aim to increase total spending by 8.7%, comparing 2019-20 with 2015-16. That’s why we hear endless arguments about cuts and the drive to a smaller state! We heard all the same arguments  between 2010 and 2015. At the end of the last Parliament public spending was higher in cash terms and in real terms than in 2010.

We need to remember that the government’s strategy has always been to sustain public spending, and to get the deficit down with a huge increase in tax revenue. The aim this Parliament is to get the tax revenue increase from growth in the economy. This will also have the effect of lowering state spending as a total of the economy as a whole, and leads to all those siren cries that this means the state sector is being cut, when instead it is just growing more slowly than the rest. there were also tax rises, with a new tax on buying Buy to let homes and the apprenticeship levy on business.

The Chancellor was right to abate the severity of his proposed cuts to tax credits. I agree with the strategy of boosting pay through working smarter and paying more for more output. I agree with the policy of cutting income tax on working earnings. As real incomes rise so it is possible to withdraw benefit  support to incomes. It makes little sense to tax people on modest incomes, only to recycle the money to them through a tax credit. The Chancellor was right to remove his severe cuts to tax credits before people have the benefit of the wage rise and the tax cut.

The boost to home ownership for sale is just what the economy needs. We are short of homes, and especially short of affordable homes for sale. This policy should help boost housebuilding and construction materials output. Brick kilns are coming out of mothballs, and new ones are being put in. There will be investment opportunities for  a wide range of building related manufactured items.

The Autumn Statement forecasts higher tax revenues in every year of this Parliament compared with the March 2015 budget. In total the new estimates show us paying an extra £105 billion in tax over the five years, with increases of 4% in tax revenue compared to March forecast in both 2017-18 and 2018-19, with smaller increases in the other years.

The forecasts also show an increase in other receipts, mainly the gross operating surplus on public sector trading, which more than offsets the increase in the UK’s own resources contribution to the EU which rises by 29% for the five years compared to the March figure.

Capital Gains tax receipts are now forecast to be 6.4% lower over the five years than the March forecast, reflecting the Treasury’s inability to model the impact of higher rates on revenue. They have had to progressively lower these forecasts in the light of experience and have done so again.

There are strong gains in VAT, in National Insurance  and in Income Tax, though self assessment income tax is now forecast to bring in less this year than the March estimate.

The big surprise in the Statement is a large further increase in spending on top of the substantial increases announced in the June budget.

In June the Chancellor raised the total spending planned for this Parliament  by £70 billion. In this Autumn Statement he has raised it by another £86 billion.

Current year spending goes up by £13  billion or 1.8% compared to the March and  June forecasts.

2016-17 spending goes up by £33 billion compared to March, or 4.4%.

2017-18 spending goes up by £43.6 billion compared to March, or 5.9%.

2018-19 spending goes up by £42 billion, or 5.5%.

2019-20 spending rises by £23.7bn or 3%.

Borrowing stays lower owing to the assumption that low interest rates will stay with us for longer, saving money on the national debt, and on the assumption that tax revenue will improve more than expected before.

I have read enough to know how little I understand about the complex theological and political struggles within Islam, and about the large number of differing terrorist groups operating in the wider Middle East. I do not speak or read Arabic and have not read enough  of the literature or history of these  very different countries. I have read enough to be suspicious of simple solutions seeking to elevate just one group into a position of being the only or main problem. I wish in this blog to pose some questions to those who do know more, and to those who seek to frame our strategy towards the region.

Time was when the enemy of the West was the Taliban. Today they have been brought into Afghan society and  form part of the democratic dialogue. Then the enemy was Al Qaeda. They have not gone away and still exercise considerable influence in a range of countries. Now the evil one is ISIS.

Recently news came that 7 people were brutally beheaded in Afghanistan by Uzbek fighters. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has taken territory in Yemen and has a presence in Aden. Do these  present a threat to us? What should be our response?

Meanwhile Jabhat al Nusra seek to extend their influence  in Syria and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb increase their activities and smuggling profits in Libya. Does this concern us, or do we wish to co-operate with them because they are against ISIS?

Are we on the side of the Sunni or the Shia factions fighting the Syrian civil war? Or do we believe it is possible to form a Syrian democracy that can hold the peace between these two and offer decent civil rights to all?

The UK government accepts that it will need a political strategy for Syria to run alongside any bombing attacks. It seems to be seeking a new government of the whole of Syria, based on the military elimination of ISIS and the voluntary surrender of power by Assad. Does it wish to help a coalition remove Assad after the removal of ISIS? Does it believe Assad will go voluntarily? Who are the moderates and where are their forces who will fight for a vision of a united Syria under democratic rule? Who in Syria has the belief in toleration towards Christians, Sunnis and Shias and has the force to establish such a society? Will the West end up accepting the Russian view that Assad is the least bad option in an all too violent society?

By encouraging the Kurds to take action in the north of Syria we are encouraging them to gain and hold territory that they think should be part of a Kurdish state. What do we say and do if they want to extend that into Turkey against our wishes and against our Turkish ally in NATO? Who could establish a government for all of Syria who would have the Kurds confidence and persuade them to give up territorial gains they have made?

Is the West clear that it can help establish a united Syria at peace, or does the West think now there has to be partition between a Kurdish Syria, and a Sunni and a Shia one? Or does the West now accept that the days have gone when great Western powers could draw lines on a map of the Middle East to conjure states out of the rival tribes and the desert?

Either way, knowing who  our enemies are is crucial, and knowing who we might inadvertently help if we intervene on one side or another is important.

The Defence Review answers some of the criticisms  bloggers on this site have made in recent years. The order for new fast stealth fighter jets has been increased, meaning the new aircraft carriers will have planes to fly from them. The maritime reconnaissance role will be served by  new planes, after a gap in UK capability. 8 new frigates will be ordered. The new carriers are well advanced in build. When they come into operation they will have frigate, destroyer and submarine protection.

The army will receive more new armoured vehicles, with a larger mobile force available to intervene, or support allies. Up to 10,000 troops will also be trained and available to reinforce the police at home should there be dangerous terrorist attacks requiring a forceful response.

I raised with the Prime Minister the issue of control of our borders. I welcome the  additional cash and personnel to strengthen our intelligence gathering. We can only keep safe if the authorities stay ahead of the threats to our way of life, and use the intelligence they have gained to good effect. I suggested that our borders be strengthened with specific links from the Intelligence services to the  border management, so that if for example terrorists are displaced from the Middle East by military action there they cannot gain entry to the UK, whatever their legal status, if their aim is harm or they are trained in terrorist ways. He accepted that more should be done to tighten border controls.

I also raised with Defence Ministers after the statement the need to continue to press for better value for money within the defence budget. In particular more can be done to release MOD land in places where it has substantial development value, and to provide new and better facilities elsewhere for our service personnel. I also relaunched my proposal for better assistance to service personnel in buying their own home. Everyone in the military should have a home base. They should be helped to buy a home of their own near the base in the normal way. Alternatively if they are using married quarters or other  service housing on a base they should be able to buy an interest in  it from the MOD for the duration of their time in the services, only to sell it back at a profit based on an agreed index of comparable freehold property prices when leaving the service. They would then have a deposit for a home of their own.

The EU is something which happens to us daily. It means laws we do not want, bills we do not want to pay.

Those who urge us to stay in are usually the rich few older men who gave done well out of the EU themselves. A narrow elite of believers has been given the well paid jobs in government and multinational business. They push out the mindless and threatening propoganda to try to keep us in thrall to their bureaucracies, and to retain us paying their bills.

Those of us who want fewer laws and lower taxes have no part in the EU world. We are not wanted. Socialists are similarly ignored, as their views do not fit in with the austerity the EU wishes to visit on member states so it can carry on spending on itself and demanding tax revenues for its own purposes. The elite always knows best. It bullies the rest of us into submission or cold shoulders those of us who will not be bullied. It is not our EU, it is their EU. We are just made to pay for it. They offer us votes in European Parliament elections, but ignore the results in any country which votes against their views. Most people don’t bother to vote, showing they don’t feel part of it.

When the Germans ask me what do I want from the negotiations I say I just want one thing- the restoration of UK democracy. The easiest way of doing that is just to leave.

Every time the EU adopts a disastrous policy, it seeks more power and control for getting it wrong. When they made so many poor with the Exchange Rate Mechanism, instead of learning from it they decided to make even more people poor for longer by adopting the Euro.

Today they destroy industry and close plants in the UK from their energy and climate change policies. Their answer to the problems is to do more of the same to make us even more dependent on EU wide scarce and dear energy.

They make the EU vulnerable through their open borders policy. Now the damage that does us clear they seek more EU wide powers over security and intelligence.

Every EU created crisis leads them to demand more EU. It is high time the UK declined and regained its freedom.