Author: johnredwood

160 countries around the world are not members of the EU but they are able to trade quite successfully with EU member countries. The main aim of the Stay in campaign is to terrify UK voters into thinking if we leave we uniquely will be unable to sell into the EU single market. Those who like Europe are so unpleasant about our partners in Europe as to think they will spite us on exit. It’s a strange paradox that those of us who wish to leave think more kindly of Germany and France than those who wish to stay.

As I have often pointed out, we are more customer than supplier as we buy more than we sell to the rest of the EU. As such Germany and France will want to keep our trade. As they will wish to continue with favourable ways to our market, they will not be looking for ways to stifle our exports, as we could simply impose the same restrictions on them.

The problem with the Single market is it is not a free market. The UK would like a free trade agreement with the rest of the EU, but that is not on offer if we stay in. Instead we have to pay large dues to the club and accept an extraordinary range of rules and restrictions on what we can do. We are told we have influence over these, yet history shows that we have lost many arguments. Our belief that we need fewer EU rules and regulations gets lost in the passion to drive through yet more agreements and directives.

Out of the EU there would be one huge improvement. All the rules and regulations we have to impose on all our business and trade would only have to remain on those goods and services we supply to the EU. Domestic activity and exports to non EU countries would no longer have to be under those same rules. At one bound we could be free for all but the 12% or so of our GDP that depends on sales to the rest of the EU, whilst that would have the same rules as today.

It is a nonsense to say that outside the EU we would be on the end of a facs telling us how to behave. As a supplier to the US, China, India or the EU we of course need to respond to what the customer wants. At the moment we are at the end of facs having to accept all the rules and regulations of an overregulated market and impose them on everything else. That is what we can free ourselves from.

Unfortunately the EEC/EU was never just a common market. It was always a journey to political union. Now it is becoming a wild ride it is becoming increasingly obvious that this is no market, but an excuse to create a government of the EU.

One of the most notable features of the modern EU is the growing dominance of Germany in its deliberations. This is inevitable as the Euro and the freedom of movement of peoples become central and often all consuming issues. Germany is the paymaster of the Euro and the generator of many of the jobs on the continent that people wish to move to.

UK commentators and media take too little interest in the German philosophy and policy towards the EU. It is critical if we wish to understand why the EU is as it is, and as we assess whether it is the right club for us.

Some say the Germans want similar things to us. This is completely false. It arises because the Germans do want a strong single market, as somewhere to sell their exports and keep their factories in work. However, they want a single market subject to iron disciplines laid down in Germany’s interest. Germans see the Euro as a necessary part of the single market. They see the UK’s absence from the Euro as a temporary and unfortunate delay in getting us inside it. They do not think the UK or any other country in the single market should be free to vary its exchange rate. Having locked themselves into the Euro at a very favourable rate for Germany, they want to preserve that and keep the trade surpluses it allows them to generate.

Germany thinks that having locked most countries into the Euro it is up to the others to struggle to keep up with German levels of efficiency and cost. If another country like Greece or Ireland cannot compete, then it should cut wages to price itself back in. If a country needs to borrow more than the permitted amounts under the EU scheme, they should cut their public spending or put up taxes instead.

Germany is coming round to the view that the EU’s future is for some additional EU taxes like the transactions tax, and in due course some additional EU borrowing. In the meantime they want to see more discipline, and want to see the UK join the Euro and have to face what the others face.To them a single market is a strong set of rules, usually favouring the incumbent large companies. The rules can make it more difficult to innovate and for challengers to compete. They tend not to like “disruptive” competition, but orderly competition to agreed prior designs and standards.

Germany is willing to take some migrants because she is short of new people for the workforce. However, Germany now realises freedom of movement is delivering too many additional people to Germany. Rather than change the policy of free movement, Germany believes other countries should be made to take more migrants instead. Germany does not think the UK should opt out from this either.

The UK’s problem is a membership based on opt outs is counter to the German view. In the longer run the Germans and their allies in the EU will wish to squeeze out or circumvent the UK’s refusal to join in all features of the discipline. As the main continental paymasters of the scheme Germany will continue to exercise disproportionate power in this club of 28 with just one permanent leader. The UK was not a founder member and has found it difficult to control the number of rules or to prevent rules which are unhelpful to smaller competing businesses.

On Friday 13th November I will give a lecture on currency unions, comparing in particular the sterling union and the Euro. The lecture will consider the moves to greater political union in the Euro area, and the position of the UK in the EU but not in the Euro. It will also look at the extent of taxation and transfers within the sterling currency area, consider the new financial settlement for Scotland whilst staying in the pound, and discuss the wider strength of nationalist movements within EU countries. It will also tackle the needs of England.

The lecture is an open public lecture to be held in the Old Library at All Souls College, High Street, Oxford. There should be seats for those wishing to attend. It would be helpful to have indications of interest in advance to give us some idea of numbers. The lecture is scheduled for 4pm.

The junior doctors and NHS management are locked in a struggle over hours, pay and productivity. The doctors complain that they will have to work week-ends and longer hours for less money. The NHS seeks to assure that the proposals do not include wage cuts or unreasonable hours.

At the heart of the row is the government’s wish to see better care at week-ends. People who fall ill or injure themselves at week-ends need good quality care there and then. The figures show that cover is not so good at week-ends, and the outcomes from treatment and surgery are not so good as a result. The aim of the reforms is to have a better balance of medical talent available throughout the week, as well as making sure there are enough doctors and nurses. The  government points out it has recruited more over the last five years, and will doubtless appoint more over the next five. The NHS budget continues to grow.

Mr Hunt is a patient and thoughtful Secretary of State driven by a wish to improve the NHS and to reinforce its best instincts and professional conducts.He has introduced a system of honest reporting  in the NHS, arguing that air safety improved when pilots and crew had to report every incident or near miss so the airline could learn from it and manage the error out of future flights or engineering. The  same is a necessary part of delivering first class health care. When people make mistakes they need to be reported, and improvements made to protocols, procedures and equipment.

The UK has moved on from creating new money to buy government bonds, but it’s still mighty fashionable elsewhere. Sweden has just announced a new programme. Japan lives by it. The Euro area is pumping out new Euros like there’s no tomorrow. Interest rates remain close to zero in the USA, UK, Euroland, Switzerland, Sweden,  and Japan. At the Bank of England the Chief  Economist muses about some future need to create money, impose negative interest rates, and drop the cash so it can be spent. In China the authorities still have scope to cut their interest rates and relax rules on bank credit to stimulate their economy. The economic world is summed up in the phrase lower for longer about interest rates.

Risk averse savers see this as a nightmare world, where they can get practically no return on their deposits. Other savers have made good money out of rising share and bond prices, as the official money created has been pumped into markets and pushed asset prices up. Borrowers have been benefitting from the low rates, with many able to borrow or refinance at low rates of interest for long time periods. The main winners have been most advanced country governments, able to spend and borrow large sums at very low rates of interest.

So how does this all end? Does it end? Is it just the new normal? Crisis low rates imposed in 2009 have been in place ever since in most cases.  If the west is now more like Japan after her excessive boom and bust at the end of the 1980s, we can look forward to more of the same. Japan has had low interest rates and intermittent programmes of money creation for 25 years.

My problem with all this monetary experimentation in the Euro area, Japan and elsewhere is that it does not directly resolve the underlying problem. The main reason rates are low and these overseas economies are weak is the state of the commercial banking system. All the time the banks are weak or are made to be extra cautious by the regulators, there will be insufficient credit growth through the normal channels. If companies cannot borrow enough to expand, if individuals cannot borrow enough to buy new cars, homes and other  major purchases, if the corporate sector is forced to run a surplus by prudent banks  the economies do not grow. Too much credit is a bad thing. Too little credit makes it difficult to grow, stifles enterprise and stops people accumulating assets for the future. The UK banks are now in stronger shape and more capable of financing the recovery. The pity is they were not sorted out immediately after the crisis, and a bigger pity that Labour’s regulators allowed the mega mergers which created RBS and Lloyds HBOS in the first place. Now it’s the turn of other parts of the world to get their banking systems into recovery shape.

I wish to reassure our German friends.  I see no need to impose a charge on Germany to go on selling us so many goods if we leave the EU.

In return for this friendly and comradely act, I am sure the Germans would not seek to impose a charge on us for importing their vehicles, or for selling them a few back.  The Germans know they sell us twice as much as we sell them.

There is no need to pay a surcharge to buy their imports in the form of sending a contribution to the EU budget. We do not have to send a contribution to the US or Chinese budgets in order to trade with them, though they are both  bigger and more powerful than us.

The UK voters will be happy to carry on trading with the rest of the EU on the same basis as today if we leave the EU treaties. We are not seeking to leave to take our deficit elsewhere. We will not want to  seek to find Asian or American sources for goods we currently buy from the European continent.

The day after we leave everything will carry on as before with our trade. The only difference will be that both the EU and the UK will be able to negotiate changes bilaterally to our arrangements, and the UK Parliament and people will have the last say on the line the UK takes in any negotiations. The UK will gain its place on the World Trade Organisation. Both the EU and the UK will remain bound by WTO obligations to keep tariffs down and markets open. The best way of proceeding is to keep in place current trade arrangements until we negotiate better ones.

Germany has made clear they would not wish to face a special 10% tariff on car exports to the UK. We would not wish to impose one, and assume Germany with the rest of the EU would therefore not impose one on us.

Our trade is not at risk from Brexit. Scaremongering by some pro EU people shows how devoid of positive arguments they are to persuade us to stay in.

Too few people in the UK understand just what vast powers the EU already holds over us and the UK government. More begin to understand the power they hold over our borders and welfare policies. This week in Parliament MP s highlighted the growing grip over taxation.

MPs want to get rid of VAT on tampons, as these are necessities for many women. The UK Parliament cannot do this, as the EU controls this and many matters related to VAT.

The government in the debate promised to lobby the EU about the tax, as they are not masters in their own Treasury and need the agreement of the other 27 countries and the Commission to alter this.

When Britain foolishly imposed duties on the American colony that the taxpayers did not accept it triggered a rejection of British authority over those territories. Let us hope that as more people come to see the high costs of the EU and tus unpopular use of wide ranging powers they will also wish to restore our democracy.

I wonder if the EU will give in on this matter, given their wish to keep us in paying their bills and obeying their laws.