Author: johnredwood

Seats and votes – the two main parties start to rise

March 27, 2015 110 Comments

The last General election brought a new low for the combined vote of the Conservative and Labour parties. It was no wipe out or complete meltdown, Euro style, but it left the two sharing just 65% of the total vote. The remaining 35% of the vote meant 57 Lib Dem MPs and 28 others, mainly nationalist or regional party MPs, arrived at Westminster. The UK ended up with a coalition government no-one had planned or argued for.

The latest polls suggest that the two main parties are now polling around 70% together. That’s well up on 2010 and may lead on to further gains in vote share for one or both  as more people may wish to directly help fashion the choice between a Cameron and a Miliband led government.

The two main parties remain  close in the polls, and the vote going to others though down is now much more powerfully concentrated in Scotland in favour of the SNP. So on the present reduced 30% vote for others, the number of MPs from outside the two main parties could stay quite high  if the SNP gets 40 plus MPs to Westminster and if the Lib Dems still keep enough  of their seats.

The election should get more competitive from here, as the campaigns proper kick in with full manifestoes after Easter. Will UKIP supporters who want out of the EU really let a chance for an EU referendum slip through their hands by not voting Conservative ? Will recent Green voters stick with their new party? Will some  Scottish Unionists vote SNP in the hope of a still better deal for Scotland, or will they see the damage that can do to the Union?

What is for sure is that England can no longer be ignored. The politics of the next Parliament may well be dominated by the business of Scotland, which will also trigger the business of England.

The work of an MP – running the complaints department

March 26, 2015 0 Comments

 

The biggest category of incoming emails from constituents other than lobby based campaign emails concerns poor performance by various parts of the public sector. The MP is the person individuals turn to if their benefit is wrongly calculated, if their tax demand is too high, if their passport or visa is causing problems  and if the government is being unfair on their business. The MP is also often the person they come to when the mistake is made by the local Council. MPs get a lot of work about social housing, planning, social care and local licencing, where Councillors are in some ways better placed to take the matter up and demand improvement or apology.

One of the features I like about the UK system is the local MP, with one member for each place. He or she has every reason to want to help a constituent, and the role of the MP is understood by most people in the public sector who will wish to co-operate with his enquiry. The simple rule all MPs follow is we only take up the cases of our own constituents. Chaos would result if MPs started picking and choosing which cases they took up from a variety of different constituencies. We are motivated to help our own constituents, and the system understands the MP’s right to make demands on behalf of those he or she represents.

There is always a difficult question over how much an MP should get involved with Council matters. Take no interest and some will allege you are  not doing the job. Take too much interest and you make yourself a nuisance to elected Councillors who have powers from their office  to demand papers and require answers from local officials which  MPs do not have. It is always a good idea  to find a working balance. I wish to see stronger local democracy, so it is important not to try to swamp it by too constant a presence and too much attempted interference.

Some people also wish MPs to help them sort out complaints with private sector companies. MPs have no special powers to do so and no privileged position, in the way we do with national government through our right to question and demand of Ministers. Parliament can fire the Minister if all else fails. However, Parliament does have some powers to summon and expose wrongdoing or bad practice  by large companies through its Committees, so there may be occasions when an MP letter can help.

 

The cost of living

March 26, 2015 122 Comments

The UK used to have a bad inflation problem. UK politics in the 1970s and early 1980s was fought over rises in the cost of living and which party had the best way of  controlling it.

Mr Miliband wanted to take his party on a trip down Memory lane, by making a central issue out of what he called “the cost of living crisis”.

This followed hard on the heels of his forecasts that the UK economy under the present government would go into double and treble dip recession and would end up with worse unemployment than it had suffered under Labour government. He abandoned that attack as the news gathered momentum of many more jobs being created, and many people getting out of unemployment into work.

This week the government announced that the present rate of inflation is zero. For the whole of the last year prices overall have stayed the same. Forecasters expect prices to fall a  bit from here. Wages are rising, so people are now experiencing some increase in living standards, after the sharp fall in real incomes at the end of the Labour period in office, and the continued squeeze in the early Coalition years when inflation remained high.

The government and Bank do wish to see better pay rises and further progress in raising people’s spending power. For the time being none of this threatens low inflation, which remains as a welcome achievement which eluded most post war UK governments.

 

The work of an MP – helping shape national policy and the national debate

March 25, 2015 0 Comments

Parliament is first and foremost the greatest official platform in the country to advance a good cause and to condemn a bad one. Parliament on good days leads the national debate and figures strongly in the national news. On a bad day Parliament may still be in the news for the wrong reasons.

Each MP has to help Parliament stay fresh and topical, in touch with public opinion, but also capable of leading the national debate in a positive way. Each MP can make a difference, and many do. Each MP does the job somewhat differently. It is not a  nine to five office or factory. It is a way of life, where an MP is on call every day of the week, where work comes in every day of the week, and where each day an MP has to judge how he or she might advance his constituents’ interests and the related national causes he or she stands for.

The national debate can be altered by an individual MP through articles, pamphlets. speeches and his work. It can be altered by groups of MPs using Parliamentary opportunities to advance their ideas.It can be changed by political parties, operating within the Commons and outside.

Euro 2 billion to help Greece

March 25, 2015 81 Comments

 

The EU came to Greece’s aid, with Euro 2bn to ease the Greek “humanitarian crisis”.

It’s all part of their “too little, too late” strategy towards the Euro. Forcing Greece into the Euro prematurely was a mistake by Greece and the other members. Offering the new government 2bn Euros of charity is not going to tackle the underlying structural faults of the scheme, nor will it get Greece back to work. Once you have allowed unsuitable economies into your single currency scheme, the whole zone has   a problem as well as the problem country.

The recent meeting between Mrs Merkel and the Greek Prime Minister may have defused a few  of the extreme tensions between Germany and Greece, but it did nothing to resolve the fundamental issue – who will pay the Greek bills coming up. Mrs Merkel was doubtless  sincere in saying she wants Greece to experience economic recovery and rising employment, but such words create no jobs.

The Greek state and economy needs more money. The Greek PM says he does not want to borrow more, yet that is exactly what he has to do if the rest of the Euro area will not give him the cash he needs. The Greek commercial banks are dependent on support from the European Central Bank, and have had to borrow from the ECB to handle deposit loss. The Greek state needs to borrow more cash to pay its day to day bills, as it seems a tax shortfall once again leaves the government spending more than it raises in taxation. The Greek state also needs to find the money to repay some of the older borrowings as they fall due.

Greece cannot just print its own cash for its banking system as a country with its own currency can. Nor can the Greek state simply issue more Treasury Bills or bonds to borrow more to carry on spending, as all of Greece’s borrowings are under control as part of the loan agreement called the Master Financial Assistance Facility.  The truth is Greece can run out of money, and can be squeezed by borrowing rules, loan covenants and by the European Central Bank.

Mrs Merkel’s fine words about growth, and the EU’s 2bn assistance is a sign of some willingness to compromise. It is still way off the scale of the debt relief or new money that Greece needs to repair the damage to its recession ridden economy with mass unemployment at worrying levels.

More trains on Great Western

March 24, 2015 2 Comments

I have received the following letter from the Transport Secretary about improvements now planned for Great Western train services, summarising the arrangements for the new train franchise following consultation and negotiation;

23rd March 2015

we are grateful to all those who took part. A summary of the responses

received, and how they have been incorporated into the new Franchise, is

now available on the Department’s website at Gov.UK.

The franchise overall will see an increase in capacity of around 25 percent,

or 3 million seats per year as well as significant increases in service

frequency and journey time savings. This will include a 2 trains per hour

service to the South West of England, an earlier arrival into Plymouth, and

double the number of trains to Cornwall. My Department will also work with

FGW to improve the performance and quality of the rolling stock serving

the south west of England, particularly for intercity services, during this

Direct Award; to complement the introduction of the IEP trains.

Other benefits secured by the Direct Award include investment of £30m to

create 2,000 more car park spaces, additional customer information

systems, CCTV, ticket gatelines, and fund of £2.5m for station access

improvements a £3.5m station development match fund, as well as

extension of Station Travel Plans at a further 20 main interchange stations.

The operator will also support the government’s commitment to get more

people into work by providing an annual fund and training opportunities for

young and unemployed people, as well as providing 85 modern

apprenticeships by the franchise end.

New passenger satisfaction, punctuality and cleanliness targets will be

introduced on the franchise. We expect FGW to continue to provide

improving standards for its 99 million annual passengers including the

provision of free Wi-Fi on all train fleets. In addition the company will

deepen its engagement with communities and stakeholders so that all the

users of the franchise can continue to have a real influence over how

services can be improved. This includes a £2.2m Customer and

Communities Improvement Fund to help areas of real social need.

I thought it would be useful to highlight some specific benefits from this

award that may affect you and your constituents more directly. The busy

commuting routes into London will see a significant increase in capacity

and better journey times from Thames Valley stations into London

Paddington with seats for over 29,500 passengers arriving into Paddington

across the morning peak in December 2018, operated by a fleet of modern

Class 387 electric trains, supplemented by a fleet of Class 365 trains. The

number of services along the North Downs route from Reading will increase

from 2 trains per hour to 3, with through trains to Gatwick increased to 2

per hour, providing much needed additional capacity and improved

frequency on the line. There will also be additional trains from Oxford to

London and fast trains will operate to and from Didcot during the morning

and evening peak hours from December 2018. From December 2017 there

will be electrified services operating on the Windsor branch and Henley

branch. Improvements on routes in the region will see the line speed

increase to 110mph from December 2018, when 12 car trains will provide

further capacity and faster journeys to Oxford, Newbury, Swindon and

Didcot.

In addition to these service and rolling stock enhancements, a number of

stations in the Thames Valley region will benefit from improvements. A new

multi-story car park is planned at Didcot for delivery in 2016/17 and FGW

are working with partners on further improvements to the station. Goring &

Streatley will also benefit from improvements to the car park from 2016 and

CCTV will be installed at Windsor and Eton station. Stations on the Marlow

line will see a package of improvements that FGW plan to deliver in

partnership with Buckinghamshire and Thames Valley Local Enterprise

Partnership and will also see new Ticket Vending Machines installed at

Cookham and Marlow stations. The new franchise will also provide

improved passenger information and retail/ ticketing systems. I’m very

pleased too that FGW will work in partnership with Network Rail and

Reading Borough Council to see the aim of a new station at Reading Green

Park realised by December 2018. FGW has committed to working closely

with TfL and the new Crossrail train operator to ensure seamless transfer

of stations and introduction of the new train services.

Reaching this agreement with FGW marks a new chapter for the Great

Western railway and a step change in capacity, frequency, and the quality

of service.

Buying a home

March 24, 2015 120 Comments

 

I was pleased to read in the week-end press that the Conservative Manifesto is likely to include a better right to buy offer for people renting from Housing Associations. We have been talking about this for sometime in  the Parliamentary party with Ministers.

I am also pleased that the more radical idea of gifting the properties to tenants who have paid rent and behaved well for a specified time period has been vetoed. It would seem to be very unfair on all those who have saved and struggled to buy a home in the normal way, or on those who have to rent from the private sector because they have not qualified for Housing Association property, that they have to help pay for free homes for those who do rent from the state.

There will be the usual left wing protests against this policy, as there were against Council house sales in the 1980s. They are already out and about saying it is quite wrong because it means fewer social homes for people to rent. It means nothing of the sort. The day after the purchase has gone through the same people are living in the same home. The home is not destroyed or made empty. It is still the family home. The only thing that has changed is the state has some of its money back from the sale, so it can reduce its debts or build a new property with the money.

The impact on state finances is usually positive. The new owner takes over the costs of maintaining and repairing the property from the Housing Association. The Housing Association saves costs and has a receipt which it can use for other purposes.

The work of an MP – meeting Ministers

March 23, 2015 2 Comments

At this time of heightened interest in the work of MPs I thought it might be helpful to write a few pieces on what an MP can do, and how MPs typically go about their jobs. One week remains before we all cease to be MPs at the end of this Parliament, and the public chooses who they wish to do the work after May 8th.

One of the central roles of any MP is to be the constituency’s main voice to Ministers. We are there to lobby Ministers to improve or amend national policies, to change laws, to deal with  mistakes made by government with our constituents’ cases and to seek better treatment for our constituency within any agreed national policy. We are the voices of individuals, groups, and of the whole community where it has a common or strong majority view.

Much of this work takes place through emails, letters and  case work exchanges on behalf of constituents. Many cases can be dealt with between the MP’s office and the office of the relevant department or Minister.

Intractable issues, issues of general concern to more constituents, and issues where it is clear the constituency is getting a bad deal from national policy usually warrant a direct exchange between MP and  Minister. This can be done in a number of ways. Sometimes I am asked if I know a particular Minister, or if I have ever had a meeting with them. Parliament is a continuous series of meetings between individual MPs, groups of MPs and Ministers. Some happen in public in the Commons itself or in public committee. Many more happen in a variety of MP only meetings. We have backbench committee meetings with Ministers, cross party groups who meet Ministers, special issue meetings with Ministers when there is a general problem, consultation meetings when Ministers are considering changing the law or policy, and party group meetings.

I chair a  group of MPs who often meet a Cabinet Minister for a 1 hour working lunch on alternate months when Parliament is in session, and 2 hour working dinners the other months. I chair the Conservative Economic affairs committee which can always invite any Minister from Treasury, Business, Transport, Work and Pensions and Energy to meet us. A Cabinet Minister often attends the 1922 Conservative backbench Committee to answer questions and hear opinions. Most  Ministers  are available for discussions  when you need to make your case.

The present group of Ministers are on the whole very accessible to MPs. They are often about the Commons, providing opportunity to have a working meal with them or an informal meeting. We also have regular contact with Whips, who are there to send back messages to government on what MPs do not like or wish to see changed, as much as to advise us on how the government would like us to vote.

Risk and burden sharing

March 23, 2015 87 Comments

 

If you share a country with others, you sign up to sharing burdens and risks. It also means you sign up to sharing successes and riches.

In Europe today some of the separatist movements are from parts of countries that are richer than the rest. They get fed up with sharing their success with others. Thus many in Catalonia in Spain, Padania in Northern Italy and Flanders in Belgium think they would better off without the poorer parts of their countries which they have to help finance.

The case of Scotland is a bit different. Scotland is not the pre-eminent richest part of the UK. London is. However, Scotland feels rich thanks to the presence of oil reserves. Much of the debate about Scottish independence entailed the two sides throwing around different calculations of tax revenues, income per head and general prosperity depending on how much of the oil was regarded as Scotland’s, and how bullish you were about future levels of extraction and future oil prices.

The case of Greece is similar. Germany and other richer parts of the Euro Union do not  want to accept full burden and risk sharing with Greece in the way West Germany does with East Germany or Northern Italy does with southern Italy. Germany says  No to propping up Greek banks, to sending  Greece more money to pay benefit bills or for local authority programmes.

The Scottish case has served as a great reminder of why risk sharing and burden sharing can help. Scotland now has to accept that volumes of oil extracted will be well down on peak levels, and at least for the time being prices well down on Nationalist expectations last autumn. If Scotland were on her own that would mean big spending cuts. Inside the UK the loss of revenue is manageable, and it will be covered from elsewhere.

It reminds us that to be a successful union most in the union have to accept the idea that success is shared and risks are underwritten throughout the whole union. Because many parts of the Euro area are not ready top accept that, the area will remain crisis ridden and unhappy.

NATs and airport noise

March 22, 2015 1 Comment

Dr Lee and I met with a representative of NATs management on 18 March to discuss the changes they made without consultation to routes of planes on easterly operations.

NATs stated clearly that they had the power to make the changes they made. They did so to improve safety, seeking to segregate planes flying into and out of the airport to and from the west. They also claimed that it allowed planes to climb higher sooner, which should reduce the noise from any individual plane. I explained that we had not felt the benefit, with the numbers of planes adding to perceptions of noise.

They agreed that the adverse reaction of the public had not been properly anticipated, but seemed unwilling to go back to previous procedures. I told them that what we wish to see is proper collaboration between NATs, the airport and its users, to tackle the problem of noise more positively. I repeated the agenda I had outlined to Heathrow in the meeting I held with them.