Author: johnredwood

When Labour says Conservatives wish to take spending back to 1930s levels they mean as a percentage of GDP, not in real terms let alone cash terms. However, it comes across as if they think Conservatives want to cut real spending back to 1930s levels. So what are the true figures?

In 1932 the UK public sector cost £1.397 billion. If you translate that into today’s prices, allowing for all the inflation since then, it would mean public spending of just £82.9 bn. Instead public spending this year is £731 billion, or 780% higher than 1932. That’s why we can afford the NHS and much else besides which we did not have in 1932.

Put another way, today’s £731 bn would have cost £12.3bn in 1932, nine times what was actually spent! Incidentally, for much of the 1930s public spending was lower than 35% of GDP, as well as GDP being so much lower in real terms.

One of the two biggest lies which sustains the EU fan club is the statement that the EU prevents wars. I have often explained how wars between western European countries have ceased since 1945, and why this has nothing to do with the EU. The latest outburst that we need an EU army to fight wars for us should help me dismiss this misleading claim about the EU.

The call for a European army does at least show honesty. It recognises that EU policy to date has not been successful in establishing friendly and stable relations with Russia on our borders. EU apologists will claim the latest rows are all Russia’s fault. As I have often made clear, I have no time for Russian aggression or military intervention outside her borders either.Nor do I think the EU has been wise or helpful in managing the Russian relationship. The inclusion of a defence clause in the proposed Association Agreement with Ukraine was bound to provoke Russia for no obviously good purpose.

The call for a European army may be honest, but it is unrealistic and undesirable. These debt soaked countries seeking budget cuts to conform with the discipline of the Euro are in no position to suddenly finance and arm new forces in European uniforms. Most of them fail to spend 2% of GDP on defence to meet their present NATO commitments. They would have  no capacity and little desire to spend more to arm Europe.

It is true they could transfer their current forces to a European force. This too would be unwise. Many people sign up for the armed forces in their country because they are loyal to their homeland, and accept the political control and guidance of their elected government. Fewer would feel allegiance to Europe, and many would ask who is the sovereign, who is the government which would decide when and where these European personnel have to risk their lives and fight their wars?

I am glad a Conservative PM, Foreign Secretary and Defence Secretary have made clear the UK does not wish to participate in a European army. We have the British army. It is part of NATO’s forces should need arise. The NATO system requires the member state government to be the authority over that state’s forces. It does  not have EU like powers to counter command or overrule the member state.

Yesterday Parliament held a debate on the new Commission work programme for the next year. It is the EU equivalent of the Queen’s speech. It contained 23 major proposals, including two new taxes, a federal energy policy, a Euro 315 bn investment programme and work on migration and borders.

My Conservative colleague Sir William Cash moved an amendment to highlight the importance of migration and the impact of the free movement policy. The debate as a result had to cover both freedom of movement and the work programme, which overlapped anyway.

I spoke against the Energy Union proposal. I raised the question of how much of the Euro 315bn investment programme is to be money from  taxes in member states. The Minister told me that would be Euro 24bn, with the rest coming from borrowings and other levered money from the private sector. Sir William and I pointed out that under current EU law benefit reforms which we need to deal with recently arrived migrants may be illegal. I suggested putting our benefit system more onto a contributory basis, so recently arrived people will not automatically qualify without infringing EU law. Anyone educated at school here would also qualify for benefits.  Sir William proposed using an amendment to the European Communities Act allowing us to legislate as we wish, which would  be a good way of doing it.

Neither Mr Carswell nor Mr Reckless came to the debate, until at the very end Mr Reckless arrived. He did not speak. It was strange that both UKIP MPs missed a crucial debate on the activity of the EU for next year, and had nothing to say on migration, benefits  and borders. As it happens, the amendment was passed without a vote, but that was not clear until well into the debate. We need more Eurosceptic voices in the Commons. Once again it was just Conservatives. The Labour front bench supported everything the EU Commission proposed, and made no criticism of the Coalition government’s handling of the EU issue.

From 1997 to 2010 the UK built very little extra road space. The Labour government welcomed in many more people to the country. More people bought and used cars, vans and lorries. Congestion got worse, time and money was wasted in traffic jams, and the environment suffered from more needless pollution as a result.

The Coalition wanted to improve the road system. For the first couple of years a shortage of money and the absence of inherited plans that could be built delayed matters. More recently the government is embarked on numerous improvements, led by the introduction of so called smart motorways where emergency lanes become additional traffic lanes to provide more capacity.

Roads are supplied free at the point of use and paid for out of general taxation and public borrowing. This has its advantages. It allows people of all incomes to enjoy access to the roads without worrying about cost. It obviates the need for specific revenue collection. It also means there is no price rationing, making it difficult to assess how much roadspace we need. It means we have rationing by queues and inconvenience rather than by price.

The missing decade and a half of road building made a not very good position in 1997 far worse. There is still no south coast dual carriageway all the way from the channel ports to Southampton, although this is a very busy area. There is still no continuous dual carriageway from  the busy south east to Exeter along the A303. There is inadequate road capacity to the east coast ports, no full motorway to the Scottish border in the east, limited cross Pennine capacity. The plans I left in Wales for a main route across the top of the valleys from the A40 in the west to Swansea has not been completed (A465) .

Big roads lead to better economic development. Most industrial and commercial parks these days are located near to motorways and trunk roads, rather than next to railway lines. The next government needs to make a better national road network a priority. It also needs to do more to assist the motorist, van and lorry driver. Instead of treating all drivers as potential criminals and concentrating on taxing and fining them, government needs to see the provision of road space is a necessary public service where the users pay large fees for the privilege of using their cars and roads. Of course road safety and responsible driving matters. So should it matter that road blockages by the authorities are kept to the minimum, that they do not block roads close to each at the same time other making lives impossible, and they should be constantly improving junctions with a view to easing congestion. They need fewer traffic lights and more roundabouts.

I find it extraordinary that some people are proposing a grand coalition between the Labour and Conservative parties after the next General Election. As someone who has helped construct the Conservative Manifesto, there is no way I could reach agreement with Labour on a common government after May 7th. Conservatives want a renegotiation with the EU and an In/Out referendum. Labour opposes that implacably. Conservatives want English votes for English issues. Labour opposes that and refuses to recognise the case for England. Conservatives want tax cuts, Labour wants to impose extra taxes. Conservatives wish to remove the deficit next Parliament. Labour thinks that is going too far.

Those who argue for a grand coalition are being premature and pessimistic about their party’s chances of winning. Why not fight out the election first, with the intention of winning outright? More importantly, they are recommending something that would do great future damage. Far from saving the union and providing wise government, a grand coalition would undermine the principles and credibility of both parties and make it far more difficult for either to win outright the following election. Whilst in a close race it makes sense to help define each party by asking with whom among the minor parties they could do business, it makes no sense for the two main parties summing up the main differences in the election to stifle that choice by saying they could combine.

On the continent, where grand coalitions or collaborative actions between centre right and centre left have been used to keep the Euro and its policies alive, they have usually resulted in grave further electoral damage to the parties concerned. In Greece the centre right and centre left invented the idea of giving 50 extra seats to the party with most votes as a way as they saw it of keeping in business the alternation of the centre right and centre left in government. Instead  they gifted the latest election to Syriza. In Spain and in Italy the two main traditional parties are struggling to command just 50% of the vote between them, because electors know that whatever they promise the cruel logic of the Euro will dictate many of their policies once in office.

Going into grand coalitions compromises principles, results in torn up election promises, and above all stifles electoral choice. If both main parties in a country work together they do indeed both become the same with respect to government policy. That impedes true democracy, or stimulates new parties to arrive and overturn them. The differences between Labour and Conservatives in today’s UK are large and important. They do not allow forming a common government in 9 weeks time.

In February 2013 the Prime Minister in agreement with Germany negotiated the first 7 yearly financial framework for the EU to cut their budgets. The limit of Euro 908 bn for the 7 years was Euro 35 billion lower than the limit for 2007-13,and Euro 80 billion lower than the Commission wanted. So far so good.

Unfortunately after this deal the EU announced changes to the figures it used to assess UK liability to contribute based on VAT and national income which were heavily adverse for the UK. A country which grows more quickly than the rest of the EU is penalised by having to make larger payments.

The UK has to pay 10.97% of the EU budget cost. (2014 after rebate) The UK’s contribution after rebate has been as follows:

2010 £12.15bn
2011 £12.21bn
2012 £12.64bn
2013 £14.46bn
2014 £14.36bn

The UK has received back around £4bn a year in payments. I do not net these off because UK taxpayers have to pay for the gross contribution, and not all the payments are on items we would chose to spend if we had domestic control of these budgets. There is certainly no need to feel grateful for these spending programmes. The UK is one of just 10 net contributors to the budget, and the second largest after Germany. The UK also sends the EU overseas aid money to spend on its behalf.