Author: johnredwood

              I do wish people would report the public spending discussion accurately. In the last Red Book the government  planned current spending of  £694.2 bn in 2015-16  compared to £672.9 bn this year. Now they plan to make the 2015-16 figure £682.7bn. This is still  an increase of £9.8bn over this year, though a smaller increase than the previous plan.  

        Capital spending was already planned to increase from £47.2bn to £50.4bn, and is apparently to increase by more under the revised  plans.  Endless media discussion of cuts of 10% are very misleading in the overall context of these figures and the large borrowings needed to sustain them.

Several bloggers have complained that homes are too dear in the UK. They have advocated policies to bring the prices down further, following the falls of recent years outside London.

I have been finding out if there are better value homes already available in the Uk that individuals on average income or below could afford. I accept that London is now very dear for all of us.  I am pleased to report that there are numerous cheaper homes in our larger cities outside the capital.  On one site I found 398 homes for sale  under £60,000 in Liverpool, 108 under £60,000 in Manchester, 52 under £60,000  in Nottingham and 59 under £60,000 in Birmingham. Any of these could make homes for people with a job or  going  into business in these great cities.

Nearer to London things do get dearer. Even here there are 35 homes for sale under £100,000 in Wellingborough, 51 in Corby, 55 in Swindon and 63 in Hastings on the one internet site.  Close to London there are park homes and shared equity properties in the lower price ranges.

The UK’s housing problem is not a simple case of too few homes in London and the hotspots. It is also a case of more homes in some places than there are people wishing to live there. Policy needs to find more ways to encourage people to make their homes and find their employment in the great northern towns and cities and in other locations outside London, where there is more residential property available at more affordable prices. All three main parties in the Commons want a better balanced UK. There are policies being followed to create one. The debate needs to be about how we can accelerate that process, so more of the empty homes on the market can be used.

Earlier this week  we saw the May figures for UK spending, tax revenues and borrowing. The figures are complex and have taken me a little while to understand, as there are so many special factors at play.

In April-May this year current public spending is 6.2% higher than in April-May the previous year.  The leap was large in April, with current spending at £62.2bn compared to £53.2 bn a year earlier. The explanation given is more rapid payments to local government. I cannot find a figure to compare between years  allowing for timing differences in these grant payments. It does mean, however, Councils received  a large cash flow injection in April. The benefit bills are rising much less quickly than a year earlier, as this year’s uprating is less than half the previous year’s 5.2% rise.

Receipts are well up, mainly owing to two special factors. The first is the Treasury now receives £3.9bn a month from  the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase scheme. The second is the Treasury has taken a credit of £3.2bn for tax receipts likely to be coming from Switzerland following the Swiss tax deal. The credit is for the whole amount they think they might receive over ensuing months.

Underlying tax revenue is mixed. National Insurance is up 3% and VAT up 2.1% in May, whilst Income Tax and CGT are down 2%.

 The longer term perspective can sometimes be useful. Total current public spending  was £3.6bn in 1946, £10 bn in 1966, £45 bn in 1976 and  £138 bn in 1986. In 1996 it reached £283 bn, and £480 bn by 2006.  In 2010 it stood at £605bn, to rise to £631bn in 2012.  Over many years there has been endless talk about cuts, yet current spending in cash terms and usually in real terms as well has gone on rising.

As the economy picks up it is likely receipts will rise a bit more, helped by the lower rates where these have been applied. Spending should start to come under better control, as the Coalition’s plans always assumed growth in public spending in cash and real terms for the first two years, to be followed by slower cash growth in the second half of the Parliament. This may start  to happen, assuming the big boost to Councils is a timing issue and not an overall increase.

 Next week the Chancellor will announce spending totals for 2015-16, with a view to putting more downward pressure on the growth in cash spending by the public sector.

            When Mr Bernanke of the Fed speaks, the world listens.

             Last month he made the commonsense point that Quantitative Easing would not continue for ever. It is surprising so many people needed telling. He explained that sometime it woudl be  tapered back and eventually ended. Indeed, on two past occasions US programmes of QE have ended without major financial disruption.

            This week he provided a little more detail. QE will be tapered later this year, and ended possibly by the middle of next if the US economy continues to grow well. There did not seem to be anything surprising or even worrying about that. Surely it is good news if the world’s largest economy can soon manage without the artificial stimulus of printing extra dollars to buy its own debt.

              It fits in with the progress made to restore most US banks to health, to have more normal credit creation in the private sector, to see a recovery in growth, progress in getting more people into work and relatively low inflation. The US has experienced a sharp downward adjustment in property prices, and more recently a good bull run in shares reflecting the better prospects.

           So why has there been such a sell off around the world? These days large operators in markets move rapidly and together when the mood changes. They decided Mr Bernanke’s speech marked a change of mood. So now everyone is hunting bad news around the world to justify the sudden reversal in attitudes. They have been selling gold, usually a safe haven in a crisis, as well as selling  emerging market shares. Japan had a bear market in a  few days, falling 20%. They have sold bonds as well as shares, fearing and creating higher interest rates.

             Commentators looking for bad news turn to the Brazilian and Turkish riots, to the slowing of growth in India and the build up of credit in China. The outlook is not as bleak as some now suggest. Forecasters are beginning to move their forecasts for the US, the UK and even Euroland up . There is no likelihood of higher short term interest rates on either side of the Atlantic this year, and little likelihood of any increase in the UK or  Euroland next year either.

              There is still a big bond bubble, but the western authorities will not want to explode that too dramatically yet.

         The Chancellor’s Mansion House Speech on Wednesday night marked an important new policy towards UK banks.

          He clearly supported policies to promote more banking competition within the UK market. He underlined the importance of more competitive banking capacity in  the Uk domestic market to finance the recovery.

           Challenger banks will be created and sold from both Lloyds/HBOS and RBS. TSB will be floated off by Lloyds soon as a newly quoted  bank in the marketplace.

            The biggest changes will be at RBS. They are asked to sell off US based  Citizens Bank. I have never seen the point of UK taxpayers owning a wide ranging global banking group that still holds good business assets like Citizens, when they can be sold and the capital realeased to assist in the rebuilding of the rest of RBS. They will sell off a challenger business in the UK. They will slim their Investment bank more. This could include sales of talent and assets where it can be profitable in the future.

             The Chancellor is also going to undertake a rapid review in the Treasury of whether to have a Bad bank/Good bank division. This might speed the sale of the good bank and permit the Good Bank to make a bigger contribution to financing the recovery. There are capital issues for the Bad bank, and the view of the minority shareholders to accommodate.

             The Chancellor rightly said “While the bank (RBS) is healing, let’s be frank it has not healed as quickly as we all hoped”. I am pleased he is now taking action to split it up and speed its recovery and improve the contribution it can make to the UK economy. It was an unusually important Mansion House Speech.

              I disagree with those who say the government should not  intervene or influence strategy in this way. The government  is the taxpayers’ representative, and is  responsible for the overall economy. It is good to see them making decisions about RBS, as the future of this bank is central to our economic progress. The UK economy has done well in the last 3 years taking into account that it has been against the very strong headwind of its largest commercial bank shedding £900 billion from its balance sheet.

              This week the Speaker made clear that Parliament would have a vote on a substantive motion before arming the rebels in Syria or otherwise changing policy towards the Syrian conflict. The Foreign Secretary was present when the Speaker confirmed this and did not challenge it. It is agreed that Parliament if it wishes can insist on debating and voting on military engagements undertaken by the UK, as has always been the case in effect.

               I think this makes the government coming forward with proposals to intervene militarily in Syria unlikely, all the time Labour remains opposed. It does not mean, however, that any military action that could be undertaken were Labour to change its mind  following a Parliamentary vote is necessarily legal under international law.

             In the case of Syria we know that Russia would veto any move by the Security Council to approve NATO military intervention. This means that anything we do would lack the legal cover of UN approval. We also know that NATO intervention would not be at the request of the Syrian government or other legal authority in Syria. It would therefore pose all sorts of legal issues about our right to use force and the consequences of using force.

               This I suspect means the UK is not even contemplating sending troops in to intervene in the civil war. What would their rules of engagement be? What would the legal advice be concerning who they were allowed to kill and in what circumstances?

              The issue of arming the rebels also poses moral and legal issues. This country would take great exception to any outside power sending weapons into our country to arm people who feel they have a grievance or strong disagreement with the government. We would point out that we are a democracy with legal rights for minorities and the ability of them to find redress.

              Those who favour sending arms to Syria rightly point out that the  Assad regime is murderous towards its own citizens, claiming this gives us the right to arm the citizens against the state. However, as Syrian experts tell us, the rebel forces comprise  a wide spectrum of people and institutions. Many of them do not wish to create a liberal democracy where minorities are respected. What if our arming of moderates allowed extremists to grab more complex weaponry? What if the people we are arming committed a massacre inadvertently or deliberately? There would be a moral case against the UK government if arming certain people made the situation worse. There could also possibly be a legal case if weapons supplied got into the wrong hands one way or another.

             The latest car sales figures confirm that the UK is beginning to grow and recover whilst the Euro area remains mired in deep recession.  The five months to May saw car sales in the UK rise by 11%. In Germany car sales fell 8.8%, in France they fell by 11.9% and in Italy by 11.3%. Continental car sales were very weak in 2012 as well.

            In the UK the inflation figures for last  month came out a little higher thanks to air fares and petrol. The underlying inflation figures were better and point to likely further falls in the rate . A more stable pound and falling commodity prices will also help.

            Confidence is picking up in the Uk economy according to latest surveys. House prices have started to advance and there is a pick up in building as a result.