That referendum again

 

           This week a group of mainly Conservative MPs tabled an amendment to the Queen’s Speech. The amendment states, in Queen’s speech style language,

               “This House respectfully regrets that an EU referendum Bill is not included in the Gracious speech”.

           Some of you would want a full bloodied motion, but I can assure you this did the job in Parliament. Everyone deciding how to vote on this amendment knows what it means on the main point. If you vote for the Amendment you want legislation in this session to hold a referendum. If you vote against it you clearly do not want a referendum. It would be most unusual for an amendment critical of a Queen’s speech to pass. Previous governments of a single party have united behind their Queen’s speech programme and voted down criticisms.

            The Motion does not tell us when the referendum should be held, or even what the referendum should ask in detail. The reason for that was simple. Mr Baron wished to maximise support for his motion. This motion allows an MP who wants to legislate soon  for a referendum in 2017 to vote Yes, as well as a person who wants an immediate In/Out referendum and an MP who wants a Mandate referendum now.

               Those of you who want an In/Out referendum now will probably complain. The truth is that amongst MPs  even on the side of a referendum on the EU there are split views on how and when. It would be a pity to lose this motion by being too specific and putting off MPs from supporting it because they do not like the detail.

               It appeared yesterday  the motion has already attracted the support of a very important MP, Mr Cameron. He was reported to  say Conservative Ministers can vote for it, a necessary condition for the motion to have a better  chance of passing. This morning we read that Conservative Ministers can merely abstain whilst backbenchers can vote for it.

            Now the question is what will Mr Miliband do? If he asks Labour to vote for the motion,  it would pass with or without the Conservative Ministers. I read he is not going to support it.  If he  merely ask them to abstain from voting, the motion will now pass thanks to the majority of Conservative MPs voting for it, with many Ministers abstaining. I assume the Lib Dems, Green  and most Nationalists will vote against the referendum. There will be quite enough Conservative backbenchers for the amendment  to carry it  if Labour abstains en masse.  Conservative Ministers abstaining will swell the majority.

               If Parliament approves this amendment, then the next step will be to present a Bill, where the questions of when and what referendum have to be addressed. There is substantial debate within Parliament on these issues, which I  will talk about more tomorrow. Parliament needs to get closer to a common view to be able to legislate.

              If Parliament passes the amendment it will not be good enough for the government to say that there will still be no Bill for a referendum. The will of Parliament will have come into line with the wishes of ther people to get on with sorting out our relationship with the EU by involving the voters in this overriding issue.

Sindlesham school parking problems

 

 When I was out and about in Sindlesham today with the local  Borough Councillor several people raised the issue of parking/drop off to the school in the mornings and pick up in the afternoons. People are worried that parking on the road is potentially dangerous with the concern that children might run out between the cars and get caught by traffic attempting to get through.

 

I have asked Councillors to look into this matter to see if the Council as Highways and Education authority can come to a better answer.

Austerity debate

 

            On Monday at 5 pm I am debating austerity and growth policies at the Sheldonian Theatre , Oxford under the chairmanship of the Warden of St Antony’s College. The other main  participants are Martin Wolf of the FT, Robert Skidelsky and Meghnad Desai.

            The topic is “Austerity in the UK and the  Eurozone: kill or cure?” Anyone interested in hearing is welcome to attend this public debate, at no cost to them.

            My Parliamentary duties allow me to do this, as Parliament is having another day’s debate on the Queen’s speech. I have already made my speech in this debate and am not allowed to speak again in the main debate. There will be no vote on Monday.

Should we bring modernisation up to date?

 

           In a way I was one of  the first modern Tory modernisers. In 1995 I said “No change, no chance”, and called for new policies and new approaches to Conservative politics. The party opted for no change, and went down a very large defeat.

            In opposition a group of people developed a modernising agenda. Some of it made a lot of sense. They said the party has to be comfortable in modern Britain, and not think it can put the social clock back to the 1950s. They were happy to have a liberal economic agenda as I favour, as long as there was a more liberal social agenda too.  In political terms the aim was to reach out to new voters and to  voters for parties of the centre left, to build a Conservative majority. Subject to careful choice of socially liberal measures and how far that went, this could have worked as an election winning strategy. A well judged reduction in political correctness, leaving people freer to run their own lives, would be welcome and popular.

           Unfortunately the strategy developed harsh edges, at a time when the aim was stated to be make the Conservatives more cuddly and likeable. Some exponents decided that the traditional Conservatives had nowhere else to go, so they could briefed against, left out in the cold or otherwise badly treated. Some of the positive measures of the modernising strategy, like the emphasis on climate change theory and the more recent approach to single sex marriage, caused adverse reactions amongst many  Conservatives , making the party look split rather than modern.

          The strategy also rested on highlighting issues that have been  traditional  strong suits of the left, and ignoring or playing down issues like the EU, law and order and tax cuts where Conservatives have fared better in the past. The Conservatives failed to break through in 2001, and failed to win an outright victory in 2010 despite substantial modernising steps. Some say Consevatives  lost because the party modernised too much in the wrong way, others say the party did not win because it still had not modernised enough.

              In the last three years there has been a great opportunity for the modernisers to show their strategy working, as around half the voters who voted for the Lib Dems in 2010 are currently  no longer prepared to vote for their old party for a variety of reasons. The government modernising agenda of green energy, same sex marriage, increased overseas aid, the concentration  on issues like health and schools rather than tax cuts, the EU and law and order should have been able to attract some of those departing Lib Dems, yet most of them have gone elsewhere. Meanwhile that same agenda has clearly driven numerous voters in the most recent Coucnil elections to vote UKIP instead of Conservative.

          Conservative opinion ratings have gone up when the PM has vetoed the Fiscal treaty, cut the EU budget , set a cap on total welfare payments to each family and made other commitments to welfare reform. In the days ahead I will look at how the Conservative party could come up with an agenda that suits many traditional Conservatives, whilst also showing that the party can reach out to people who have not voted for it for many years, and to younger people who have never voted for it.

Lord Lawson recommends a freer future for the UK

Lord Lawson was right to say in the Times on Monday that the Euro means an ever closer union in the EU, with ever more government from Brussels. He is right that the UK does not want that and cannot accept that. Some of us thought the EU bossed us around too much before the Euro. The Euro has clearly made it a lot worse.

The EU Trade Commissioner decided that made it a good day to launch an attack on Europsceptic MPs in the UK for not understanding the EU. I suspect our problem from his point of view is we read too much and understand too much, not the other way round. There is no point in Commissioners trying to threaten the UK with the tired old lie that we will lose 3.5 million jobs dependent on EU trade if we pull out. As they well know, the rest of theEU, especially Germany, sells us much more than we sell them. They will need to carry on with that trade, so they will be asking the UK for arrangements that allow that to happen.

If the EU was indeed a friendly partner and supporter of the UK , it would now be asking us what we need to allow us to trade and be friends with them. It would not be lecturing us, but would be listening sympathetically to what it is about the EU that we do not like. The fact that they do not do this, shows  some of them  do not think it is our club as well, and shows they have little wish for us to improve its performance and alter its masively over intrusive rules.

The big problem for business with all the single market rules, is they apply to everything we do at home and everything we sell to non EU countries, as well as applying to our exports to the EU. If we were a free country again, the EU rules would only apply to things we sold to them, making it easier for us to compete in the rest of the world’s growing markets.

I was asked to make my own position clearer. I cannot see how I can make it clearer. I have repeatedly said that I voted against continued membership in 1975, and that if we had a referendum today on In/Out on current terms I would vote for Out. I also want us to negotiate a relationship based on trade and political co-operation. Many of you tell me that cannot be achieved, in which case I would vote for Out on any referendum that followed such a negotiation. Those who just wish to leave need to accept there has to be a negotiation over which common rules will still apply so ferries can run, planes can fly etc. I have always thought the costs and legal impositions of membership were too high, and that it was always a political union in the making which we did not wish to join. That is why I voted against Rome in 1975, and opposed all subsequent treaties one way or another, as being incompatible with UK democracy and sovereignty. The whole Conservative party rightly voted against Nice, Amsterdam and Lisbon, which is why we cannot accept the current arrangements.

Mr Redwood’s contribution to the debate on the Queen’s Speech, 8 May

Mr John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con): I welcome the Prime Minister’s speech and the contents of the Gracious Speech.

I urge my right hon. Friend to telephone the President of the United States and say that it is high time Guantanamo Bay was closed down, which we read the President is minded to do. It is a moral blot on the west that people are still there without facing trial or being released for their liberty. If there are people for whom there is not enough evidence for a proper trial but about whom there are still legitimate worries, could they not be let out under surveillance? Surely it is high time we no longer tolerated that prison.

I strongly support what the Leader of the Opposition and the Prime Minister said about our armed forces. They have shown enormous strength, great professional service and huge bravery, especially in Afghanistan. I hope that the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary will move to get our troops away from risk and danger in Afghanistan as soon as possible. Some might have to stay there for longer, to provide training and support, but surely the Afghans are by now sufficiently trained to do the patrolling and take on the more dangerous tasks. They have the local languages and contacts. I want our troops out of risk and out of danger. So many have died. They have created the conditions in which the Afghans can now have a more secure future, so please now trust the Afghans and take our troops away from those risks.

I hope that the Prime Minister will be extremely careful about being dragged into any intervention in Syria. None of us likes what the regime is doing—the terror, the bombing and the huge loss of life is unacceptable —but we also know that the forces of opposition range from the friendly and those in favour of democracy and liberty to very different types of people whom we would not normally choose to be our allies. While I welcome the Prime Minister’s wish to use what diplomatic weight the United Kingdom has to try to find a solution, I hope that he will resist any hot-headed moves to commit our troops to Syria, whether directly on the ground or indirectly, and be very careful about the idea that killing some more Syrians might be a helpful contribution to an extremely dangerous situation.

I welcome the fact that the Gracious Speech has relatively few Bills in it. That is very good news. We legislate too much in this House, and we often legislate in haste and repent at our leisure. I think everybody would agree that this Government are trying to reform a very large number of things already. A lot of very complex legislation has been put through affecting many of our public services. Surely now is the time for Ministers to supervise those reforms and ensure that they are well thought through, properly administered and embedded, while the rest of us must subject them, and every penny of public spending that Ministers propose, to increasingly extensive scrutiny.

This Government face a mighty task. They inherited an extremely broken and damaged economy. All Ministers now need to lend their weight and their talent to dealing with that one central issue and not get too distracted by other things of interest abroad, and we in this House need to make sure that every penny they propose to spend is well spent, because the origins of our debt and borrowing crisis lie in an enormous surge in public spending. Unfortunately, some of that spending was not well judged and did not lead to the better schools and hospitals that all parties and people of good will want but, instead, added to the complexity, the unnecessary cost and sometimes the waste throughout the public services.

In order to promote this economic recovery, I hope that my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister will inject a new sense of urgency through his new energy Minister in the Department of Energy and Climate Change. One of the most oppressive things about our current economic situation is the very high energy prices that have been imposed on individuals, families and businesses, and we now need to regard cheaper energy as fundamental to getting better economic growth. Our American friends and competitors have energy prices 50% below our own for running industry, which these days is often more energy-intensive than labour-intensive. That is too big a gap, and it is a matter of great urgency. I hope the Government will look very carefully at ways to get energy prices down and to go for cheaper energy in the United Kingdom.

Sammy Wilson (East Antrim) (DUP): Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that the pursuit of misconceived green energy policies has contributed to the problem that he is identifying—namely, that we are now one of the most expensive places to generate energy in Europe and as a result our industries are suffering as regards competitiveness?

Mr Redwood: I think that the Government need to re-examine the whole carbon tax regime, which is not imposed by our Asian or American competitors, and the balance of power generation for electricity, because we seem to choose to generate a rather high proportion by extremely expensive means. I would impose this simple test: is it going to work and is it going to be cheaper?

The Government would be wise to understand that we may not be too far away from an unfortunate conjunction of events on a cold winter’s day when there is no wind blowing and we are very short of energy.

I am worried that a number of our important old power stations are being pensioned off or forcibly converted before we have put the alternatives in place. As the Prime Minister has rightly said, that should have been done by the previous Government, who spent 13 years arguing over whether to have new nuclear or new gas and did not put in place the replacement and back-up power that we clearly need with a strategy that relies heavily on wind and other intermittent renewables and where an EU set of rules requires us to close down prematurely a series of older power stations that we might still need.

Indeed, I would hope that one of the new energy Minister’s urgent decisions will be to ask for permission or derogation to keep open some of the older power stations for another two or three years while the Government put in place the necessary permits, licences and investment framework for the replacement power stations—which will, I think, have to be gas powered—in order to ensure back-up and security of supply. One of the important tasks of government in the overall task of keeping the country secure is to keep the lights on, and we need to do more to make sure that that is happening.

I hope that my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister will encourage the Chancellor to go further and faster in sorting out the banks. Some of us are extremely impatient about the way in which the Royal Bank of Scotland, the recipient of so much public subsidy and shareholding, is still not able to help finance a proper recovery. It is extremely difficult to have a strong economic recovery in this country at a time when our major bank is still undertaking such a massive slimming programme and trying to reduce its loans and exposure to risk because it got itself into difficulties under the previous regulators and remains in difficulties under the new regulators. There are regulatory fixes; I do not wish to go into the technical details, but I hope that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor will move quickly and more purposefully to split up RBS and create working banks to finance the faster recovery that all parties in this House clearly want.

That would also help with private infrastructure. Those on the Government and, I think, Labour Front Benches are keen to promote more large infrastructure projects, and it would be very good if they could be financed privately. We are many years beyond the initiation of that idea under Labour, and then under the coalition, but we are yet to see the commitment of large financing to the power, transport and wider broadband and other communications projects needed for economic development and to trigger more economic growth through the construction industry. I hope that more attention will be directed to tackling those issues.

I am very pleased that at the core of the Gracious Speech, as the Prime Minister said, is his wish to do more to control our borders sensibly. I am a free-enterprise free trader—I am all in favour of talent coming in and of diversity in our country. However, I think that most of us believe that far too many people came in far too quickly, creating difficulties for housing, health and other service provision. When new people arrive in our country, we want them, as well as the people already settled here, to enjoy a reasonable lifestyle and for that to be achieved at a pace with which the existing community is happy.

I think the big mood of anger that we saw in Thursday’s elections stems from the feeling that many people have that some of those who arrive in our country get free and easy access to public services and benefits before they become British citizens and valued members of our community. People ask, “Is this fair at a time of cuts, pressure and difficulty? Can we really afford to have hundreds of thousands of new people coming in who are immediately eligible for high-quality public services and welfare provision?” When we see the details of what the Prime Minister is suggesting, I hope that a fair and sensible system will be introduced.

In meeting the European Union obligations on the freedom and movement of workers, it would be a very good idea to say that while of course people can come in to take a job, that would not make them eligible to receive a welfare or top-up benefit of any kind, and that it would not give them automatic entitlement to a lot of fringe benefits for their wider family. It should be the free movement of workers, not the free movement of benefit-seekers. I believe that the contributory principle is enforced in other parts of the EU, so why do we not have a rule that says that people can get access to welfare benefits and services only if they have paid national insurance for five years, or—to cover those who are already settled here but who, through no fault of their own, have not been fortunate enough to have a decent work record—if they have been in full-time education in Britain for five years? We need to look at whether we can use that contributory principle to provide some discipline.

Something that is of great interest to the trade union movement and the Labour party, as well as to the rest of us, is the impact that high volumes of migration have had on wages. Because Britain has been such a welcoming home to so many people, it has seen a large number of migrants from the rest of Europe. That has undoubtedly acted as a damper on wage levels at the lower end of the market. Often, people of great talent and skill come in and do jobs well beneath their skill level for very low wages because they are better than the wages where they come from. Some of that is a good thing, but too much of it creates enormous difficulties because it means that people who have been here for many years or were born here cannot get a job, the overall level of wages is rather low and living standards are not as high as we would like. That causes anger and tension in local communities.

Wayne David (Caerphilly) (Lab): Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that it would help if the minimum wage in this country was enforced vigorously?

Mr Redwood: I do not think that the minimum wage is high enough for a family. Our ambitions should be rather higher. It is a Labour cop-out to say that all the problems can be solved by enforcing the minimum wage. We all know that, on the whole, people do not live on the minimum wage, but get benefit top-ups. If people have family commitments, they of course need benefit top-ups.

I am talking about the justice of a system in which there are people in Britain who cannot get a job at all and lots of other people coming in from outside who are taking jobs on very low wages and expecting welfare top-ups, making it difficult to get the welfare bill down. That does not make any sense. There is a double bill for Britain: we have to pay the full welfare costs of the British person who cannot get the job and the top-up costs for the person who comes in from outside. Labour should take that point seriously and worry about it.

British people expect the Government, in trying to keep the country secure, to have the power to get rid of terrorist suspects and other unpleasant individuals who have, perhaps foolishly, been let in. I want the Government to appear strong and to be able to act strongly when necessary. There is huge public will for this House to gain powers that enable us to extradite people who are guilty of crimes or who are suspected of crimes and need to go elsewhere to be tried properly.

My final point is about Europe. I know that the Prime Minister is not keen to have a long debate on Europe. The trouble is that Europe is no longer a single subject; it is about the life that we lead. If we want to be sure that we can control eligibility to our welfare system, we have to sort out European welfare issues. If we want to extradite people from Britain, we need to sort out the European Court of Human Rights and will soon have to sort out the European Court of Justice as well, because there is an important European constraint on the power of Governments to act in that area. If we want to have cheap energy, we may well need to change European energy policy as well as our own. We can make immediate progress through derogations and permissions, but it would be far better to change the overall energy policy, because the whole of Europe is being damaged by its dear energy strategy, which allows America, Asia and others to take the jobs and markets that we need. We need to control our borders, keep the lights on and extradite people who deserve to be tried somewhere else. To do that, we need to sort out the European issue, as well as all the individual issues in their own right. I wish the Prime Minister every success in that.

I do not want to belong to a powerless Parliament. I do not want to belong to an impotent Parliament. I want to belong to a Parliament that can give redress to angry people outside if we think that they are right. I want to belong to a Parliament that controls our borders. I want to belong to a Parliament that settles our energy crisis. I want to belong to a Parliament that can legislate to finalise who has welfare entitlement and who does not. We are not in that happy position today. That is why I welcome the Prime Minister’s statement that we need a new relationship with the European Union. Bring it on as soon as possible and put it to this House of Commons, because without it this House of Commons is, indeed, impotent.

Controlling public spending

 

The last time a government had to control the excess spending and borrowing inherited from its Labour predecessor was 1979.

I have been reading Mr Moore’s new official biography of Margaret Thatcher. He guides us through the received wisdom and the well known press cuttings and literature. In the case of her private life he does shine new light with access to the fascinating family letters, especially to her sister.

When it comes to the first couple of years fighting the deficit and excess spending he is less sure of foot. The fascinating thing was that despite all the preparation in opposition to come in and control spending from Day one, the first two years saw a huge increase in public spending. This “fiscal stimulus” did not rush us out of recession, nor did it make the government popular.

I had been one of the two external advisers to the extensive Policy Group work done on public spending under Keith Joseph’s chairmanship in opposition. We had been through the published “books” with a fine toothcomb, and knew how the incoming  government should get to grips with runaway spending. Margaret had taken a strong personal interest in our work, as we  were regularly told. Our papers were often called in for pulping, as she was understandably afraid  that the detailed plans woud leak, even though they were in line with the regular public statements about the need to curb spending.

Yet in the first year the government took cash spending up from £75 bn (General Government expenditure) to  £90 bn, an increase of 20%, and in the second year up to £108.6bn, a further increase of  20.6%. The total increase over the two years was 44.8%   (Red Book p 120  1997-8 ). Public sector inflation was rapid, and a  lot of the increase went on higher wages. It was nonetheless a  real increase of 5.2% as scored in an understated way by the Treasury at a time of stories of massive public sector cuts. Actual inflation was 29.8%, so public spending went up by 15% more than the GDP deflator measure of inflation.(Red Book p 120).

So why did this happen? I think the main  reason was the official civil service presented eveything to Ministers in so called real terms. These figures concealed the huge cash increases in spending going on. I called John Hoskyns (Policy Adviser) at No 10 as soon as I saw some cash figures that revealed what was really going on. When I showed them to him he expressed surprise at the scale of the increases, as all the government debate was couched in terms of cuts and how many cuts the system could take. It was only  when Ministers and their advisers started to demand and to use  cash figures that the true scope of the spending control problem became clear to them.

The Coalition has put up spending by much less than the Thatcher government did in its first two years. They too, however, have tended to look at so called real figures instead of cash figures.  Where the Thatcher government increased spending by 44%, the Coalition increased current public spending  by just 7.8% in cash terms, and continued with most of Labour’s capital cuts. The Coalition has said it is cutting spending in real terms, yet overall current spending rose a little according to official figures. The rest of us have to budget in  cash. Our pay does not go up to allow for full inflation. The best way to budget in government if you want to bring the deficit down its to ask how many twenty pound notes each item costs.

Queen’s speech – what do you want in it?

 

        Parliament legislates too much. I am not looking for another long list of Bills regulating too many things. Indeed, top of my list are the Bills I do not want to see get the light of day.

        I do not want a Bill to enshrine levels of overseas aid in law. These should be settled each year in the Budget like other spending. I want us to get the deficit down before committing more cash to this cause.

      I do not want a Communications Bill offering government surveillance over our use of the internet. The authorities should snoop under warrant on those who may threaten our society, not on everyone else.

     I do not want a Bill to impose a minimum alcohol price. Whilst too many  getting drunk does cause problems for our society, a minimum price only stops the poor and honest from getting drunk, not the rest.

     I do not want a Bill to regulate cigarette packets.

     I do not want a Bill to undertake the next stage of HS2. I want this delayed until the structural  budget deficit has been removed.

        I would like a Referendum Bill, a Repeal  Bill to remove needless and costly regulations, and a Bill to free us to have an energy policy based on cheaper energy.

       Government needs to spend more time sorting out public sector management, standards, quality and extent of its functions rather than adding more laws to the Statute book. It needs to redouble its efforts to curb spending to get the deficit down.

          What would you like? And Yes, you can say repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act.

Banking bureaucracy is suffocating

 

Reports I am getting from business and individuals in my constituency and from the wider country tell me that banks are reluctant to lend, require huge amounts of paperwork, and impose very high charges if they do decide they will provide some finance. Recent figures show there is still a lending problem in our economy. A new generation of potential homeowners cannot get mortgages, and many businesses struggle for loans to help them grow.

Anti Money laundering is  an absurd paperchase. Most banks still seem to think that having an authenticated copy of your passport and a utility bill will mean the money they are receiving is not laundered. It is completely ridiculous. Money launderers have passports and homes with utility bills. If they do not, they would happily forge or steal the necessary documents, as one more offence would not make a great deal of difference to their criminal record  should they get caught. The whole thing has become like the sale of indulgences against sin, with the victim having to pay for a lawyer to countersign the documents to prove who he or she  is, even though the Bank should know exactly who  he or she  is.

The Money Laundering Regulations 2007 do indeed ask the business to “verify the customers identity on the basis of documents, data or information obtained from a reliable and independent source”. Many businsses do this to death, requiring expensive signed copies of documents from people they know well. It also requires business to “obtain information on the purpose and intended nature of the business relationship”, which few seem to bother about and which does  not lead to all sorts of standardised box tickings,.

Banks used to regard property as a good asset for security. Now they seem to dislike property, saying they have too many loans against it already. If they do go ahead, the new system of property transfer has been made cumbersome and much more expensive, with endless enquiries concerning energy efficiency, appliances in the property, past conformity with planning and Building Regulations, Stamp Duty rules and the rest.

Anyone seeking to gain permission for property improvement or alteration now faces a much longer and more expensive process than a few years ago. Bat, newt and other surveys can delay works by more than a year.

It is no wonder it is difficult getting growth back again in our economy. There is so much regulation that is either of dubious value, or over the top in the way it is implemented, that it is easier just to say when faced with the idea of a new project “I cannot be bothered”. So many public bodies, and some advisers in the private sector, now see any glimmer of enterprise as an opportunity to demand more fees and charges before allowing people to go ahead.

 

The tragedy and the opportunity for those of us who want an independent democractic UK

 

          The BBC/Labour strategy up to this point has been to create UKIP as a new SDP. The left now thinks they were out of power in the 1980s and most of the 1990s owing to the split in Labour and the emergence of Labour light. Mr Smith and Mr Blair eventually got them back into power by moving Labour more towards the SDP to make it electable. What better, they think, than to help stimulate a massive split in the Eurosceptic forces, so they can have Lib/Lab  governments busily allowing the EU to complete its take-over of our country.

           This week’s Council results should give them pause to think again about this strategy. It has worked in the sense that giving more airtime and support to UKIP as a political force has helped them speak up for many voters who do not like the current situation. It has set Eurosceptic Conservative against Eurosceptic UKIP brilliantly. However, it now turns out that UKIP has been able to garner more of the popular vote in the seats they contested than is comfortable for either Labour or the Lib Dems. UKIP has shown an ability to take some votes from the left, and to persuade former non voters to vote, in a way which has also damaged the two parties of the pro EU  left as well as the Conservatives. Mr Miliband would be ill advised to deny the British public a referendum now, as he scrambles to get up to just 30% of the popular vote.

          From here there is all to play for for all the main parties and viewpoints. The Eurosceptics have shown that if you add the UKIP vote and the Conservative vote they have the majority. Can they find a way at last of translating that into power, to  change the EU relationship as we wish? Or can the left ensure the splits in Eurosceptic opinion get more bitter , so the Conservatives end up  by winning fewer seats, leaving the  field open for Labour? Could Labour succeed in  winning a General Election  whilst polling less than 30% of the popular vote? It would be rash to rely on that. Labour has to think about how it can change on issues like migration, dear energy, extradition and the underlying problem of the EU.

          As someone  motivated to seek a better life for UK people I want to get the UK out of the centralising bossy ill directed government of the EU that currently damages us.  I am not sure whether to cheer or to weep at the last results. The optimist in me says at last people have spoken in greater numbers, to tell all the political parties they want a say on the EU and they deeply resent EU policies on borders, crime,energy and welfare, to name but a few. Surely now we Eurosceptics can weld this mood into a political force for change?  The pessimist warns me that UKIP and the Conservatives may continue to attack one another to the point where they let Labour in, as some on the left anticipate.

         If Eurosceptics are to seize the opportunity in these latest figures, two things need to happen. The Conservative leadership has to start rectifying the problem now, despite the Coalition. They have plenty of backbench MPs keen to do so. They need to act, not just to talk about acting. UKIP for its part has to use more moderate and friendly language about Eurosceptic Conservatives, seeing us as part of the solution, not wrongly defining us as the problem. We do have votes in the Commons, which is where we need them to change the UK’s relationship with the EU. UKIP still has none.