Category: Uncategorized

Of course most of the tax revenue needed has to be paid by the rich and the better off. The art of  taxation is to set rates that maximise revenue without killing enterprise and forcing out the wealthy.

You do not make the poor rich by making the rich poor. If you try to tax the rich too much you drive them abroad. They do not  have to stay to pay. They do not have to pay  to play here when there are plenty of lower taxed places to go. They also have the option of paying more to hire better defences against a predatory state.

The current Chancellor inherited taxes that were already high as a result of the over spending and fall in tax revenues brought on by the covid lockdowns. She was warned upping the rates would be damaging. She ignored the advice and now  watches  in horror as the billionaires and the millionaires flee the country in increasing numbers.

The Office of Budget Responsibility is poor at forecasting revenues. It often underestimates the negative effects of high rates on revenues and exaggerates the revenue likely to accrue from higher rates. Even the OBR will have to tell the Chancellor before her next budget the bad news that higher wealth taxes have driven away too many better off people, and higher National Insurance has destroyed jobs and business profits. As a result higher NI has reduced income and business tax revenue.

If the Chancellor wants to raise more revenue she needs  to do a  U turn on her tax rises last time. She needs to ask herself why Ireland has been raising four times as much business tax per head as the UK with a much lower rate.

Yesterday I proposed a big saving on prisons by deporting many more foreign criminals. Today I propose welfare reforms.

The priority task should be to greatly reduce the flow people onto benefits.

Illegal migrants should never qualify for regular   benefits. If they have to stay for a bit before leaving the state needs to find a cost effective way without allowing them to establish benefit entitlements.

People seeking entry on work visas should not qualify for benefits. They should be self sufficient on the pay they are receiving and should return home when the contract ends. We need to prevent  low pay migrant jobs  which get in the way of better pay for others.

The government needs to review eligibility to come in as a dependent to make sure they do not go straight onto  benefits.

The government needs to improve support for those seeking work. It needs to cut taxes to make it more  worthwhile to work. It needs  to ensure those on benefits who can work are actively seeking work and not turning down jobs they are offered.

It should not allow a sicknote for life to be granted to younger people with mental health problems, unless their condition is acute and likely to be incurable..

There are over 10,000 foreign prisoners in UK jails. In a recent poll more that 80% of those polled wanted serious offenders deported, including 80% of Lib Dem and Labour. voters with a higher percentage of Conservative and reform.

It us expensive to keep prisoners in jails. It is very dear to build extra orisons to keep up with surging demand. Successive government have been returning modest numbers and this government is now talking if sending some out of the country earlier in their sentence.

Why not take tge public advice and send more out of the country more quickly after conviction. Why do  taxpayers have to pay  more than £50,000 a year per prisoner, or over £500m a year to keep these people? Building new  places for them is £600,000 per place or £6 bn to provide for 10,000.

The Foreign secretary tells us China is a threat. He tells us the government is increasing its spending on Intelligence by £600 m. Like the US the UK seeks to keep China out of crucial defence and digital systems.

Meanwhile the PM will not confirm he sees China as a threat. With the Chancellor he wants friendly enough relations to promote more trade and investment.

China is running rings round US, EU and UK in producing much cheaper battery cars, based on a big home market assisted by subsidies and other encouragements. The US has placed a very high tariff on them to keep them out, followed by high tariffs from the EU. The UK has imposed no new high tariff, inviting in many more Chinese vehicles. The UK is also very reliant on imported solar panels and wind turbines for its big drive to net zero.

Has the UK become too dependent on China? Is China a threat? Should trade and investment with China be encouraged?

The government faces 123 of its own MPs refusing to support important parts of its welfare reform. They seem to be making some important points. It was a pity yesterday that the BBC Today programme hectored and overrode the Chair of the DWP Committee who wanted to set out problems with the welfare reforms . The BBC agenda was to paint her and the opponents as destructive rebels not interested in getting welfare bills down.

As she said, many of the 123  and  Conservatives and Reform MPs do think there needs to be welfare reform. They do think too many people are not in work, and see helping more people into work as a win win. The individuals will be better off and there will be substantial welfare savings.

The issues which need exposing are

1. Are too many people granted a sicknote for life who will be able to return to work?

2. Is it sufficiently worthwhile to take a job given the way benefits are removed and the tax/ benefit system hits people on lower incomes?

3 Can’t some more people with mental health issues receive help whilst having a job? Isn’t  work itself with the purpose and company it brings sometimes a good part of therapy?

4. If the UK cut migration levels more wouldn’t that make it easier for local unemployed to find a job?

5. Shouldn’t vocational education and training be strengthened to work with young people who will otherwise be on benefits?

6. What conditionality should be linked to benefits? What actions should someone take to get a job? How many jobs can they turn down whilst still

There needs to be a more  effective  and faster acting set of policies to get more into work and to make work more worthwhile.

President Trump was elected on a No more foreign wars ticket. He has let Israel wage war on Iran, just allowing one bombing flight if US planes to damage nuclear facilities Israel could not reach.

Trump supporters argue this was legal as there is a threat to the US – and allies- if Iran is about to make a nuclear  bomb. Years  of pretending Iran is a normal state  we can negotiate settlements with has  meant turning  a blind eye to Iran terrorist supported activity throughout the Middle East. The West has had to overlook Iran’s progress to producing weapons grade uranium. The idea is one  raid to force Iran  to negotiate from a position of weakness.

The Europeans worry about the legality of the action. They are concerned about Iranian retaliation. Some Maga supporters think this is a needless foreign diversion from the domestic  agenda. What say you?

On Thursday I travelled to Braintree and back by train to give a speech there. The announcement system kept shouting at me that if I saw something that didn’t look right I should report it to a member of staff. Ever obedient to other peoples rules I spotted several things that were wrong, but there was no available member of staff on either train to report to. So today I report here and will send a copy  to  the railway.

Things that went well

The Greater Anglian trains both left on time and arrived on time. The outbound train had been cleaned. The return train had litter on floors from recent passengers and was not cleaned. The on board train information system was clear and updated as we progressed.

What was not right

Passenger discomfort

The seats like many modern trains were unacceptably hard with a rigid and painful back angle. I had bad back and thigh pains for most of the journey which I do not experience on normal chairs.

The day was pleasantly hot. The fierce air  conditioning  made the train like a chill counter continuously blasting  cold air. I was cold for the whole  journey and was delighted to get off to warm up.

The perpetual loud announcements were over the top and ear piercing. The automatic doors kept opening and closing in stations with loud bleeps.

The state of the track

The worst part of the experience was the nationalised part visible through the windows . Practically every trackside structure was defaced with ugly graffiti, showing a failure to stop people getting trackside and an unwillingness to clean and  maintain structures.

There were weeds and vegetation growing out of older track and encroaching on the operational property. There were abandoned bits of rusting track . building supplies and sleepers left lying around. It looked as if no one managed it properly, left supplies hanging around and did not care about the assets.

Fare collection and enforcement

As a heavily overtaxed taxpayer I was worried to see the poor usage and likely losses from running the 20.08 from Braintree where only around 6% of the seats were taken and where only around 20 of us went all the way to Liverpool Street. The 16.35 outbound appeared to have more than half the  seats empty.

Tickets were checked on departing  Liverpool Street but not on arriving at Braintree or on train. Tickets on the return were only checked at Liverpool Street.

So I saw it and said it. I bet nothing gets sorted.

There are 3 ways to pay for lots of new infrastructure. You can leave it to the market as we largely did with broadband. That went pretty well with most people now having access to it. You can leave it to regulated  monopolies to do it. That worked badly with water where the Regulator often said No and the companies spent a lot on debt and equity. It worked better for gas and electricity. You can leave it to the government  to do on borrowed money. That was a disaster with the HS 2 new railway line and the new Horizon computer system for the Post Office.

The government wants to do more joint ventures and partnership funding, It talks of public financial institutional capacity. It thinks the last government had established £97 bn of that and the new one has added £40 bn. The bulk of it was UK export finance. Now there will  be National Wealth fund, Great British Energy and housing money to add in.

The use of nationalised business banks, wealth funds that can borrow and public companies that can partner and borrow conjures a world where the taxpayer could  be on the hook for losses and write offs. Where are all these good investments the private sector cannot finance? How does the state avoid getting the ones the private sector does not want?