The government boasts that it is about to save lots of money on administrative costs, and will boost public service productivity. Indeed, the arithmetic for five years time to stay within fiscal rules makes this essential. facts4eu recently published my thoughts on this.
I have long highlighted the productivity collapse in public services since covid. Indeed I found the give away ONS figures buried in the detail and let them see the light of day. I was pleased when this government asked the civil service to come up with a cost reduction programme. I was not surprised to see Ministers adopted a delayed and implausible programme.
They confirm that health productivity is down a massive 9.6% since 2019. Presumably Ministers do not wish to stop recruiting to get numbers down at a time of rising unemployment, and with strong public sector unions wanting more.
They have done two things to the idea of reducing administrative overheads. They have delayed the breakthrough in cost reduction until 2029-30, conveniently after the next election. They have decided to spend another £3.25 bn of extra money on admin in a so called transformation fund over the current year and next year. This is money they can ill afford. There is no detail on why this addition to large computer budgets and systems can make a difference when all the other computer spend failed to do so.
The headline is a 16% real terms fall in back office costs by 2029-30 for government departments. “All departments will deliver at least 5% savings in efficiencies by 2028-9”. They must be expecting around 10% inflation by the end of the decade.
But look at the big budgets. Health is the largest by a long way. Admin costs are set to stay at £2958 m for 3 years, and to tumble in 2028-9 and 2029-30 by 8%. The third largest, Welfare, actually sees a rise from £1284 m to £1381 m by 2027-8, only to fall by a dramatic 30% in the last two years. The MOD does see falls each year to go down by 7.5% overall. The Transformation money adds to the cost figures in the first two years.
Meanwhile extra spending of £2 bn this year will be followed by £1 bn next year on transformation. That looks more believable than the bigger falls in cost around and just after the next election. This all looks like another piece of spin, with unlikely figures at the end of the decade to be able to invent a headline of lower costs. There does not seem to be any credible plan to cut costs any time soon.