John Redwood's Diary
Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems. Promoted by John Redwood 152 Grosvenor Road SW1V 3JL

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What should the Prime Minister put in the King’s speech?

If all goes as planned Parliament will  end the current session this week and prepare for a King’s speech and a State Opening.

Given the state of the polls and recent by elections I assume this Parliament has at least a year to run before the next election to give the PM more time to demonstrate the competence he talks about and to deliver his five pledges.

The main opportunities he has to show the change he says the public wants rest on the year’s legislative agenda to be set out in the  King’s speech, and changes made in the November and April budgets to come.  I will be presenting detailed proposals for the budget shortly. Today I am interested in your ideas for legislation.

My own priorities are unlikely to appear. I would like to see

1 A small boats Bill to make clear to UK courts that Parliament does not want Human Rights Law to impede decisions and removals of illegal migrants from the UK

2. The completion of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill to remove the problems with the Windsor Framework,restoring UK government of NI.

3. Restoration of the full EU Retained Law Bill with more EU law repeals and amendments.

4 Tax Reduction and Simplification Bill

5. A Wider Ownership Bill setting out more ways to promote ownership of homes, shares and businesses

6. A public sector productivity Bill creating  opportunities for state employees to buy out their managerial and administrative tasks in government through an employee buy out.

7 A privatisation Bill to facilitate the sale of all remaining shares in Nat West and to sell Channel 4. Bill to be fast tracked to complete sales next year.

8. A People’s BBC Bill as discussed here before

Covid lockdowns

I do not have a worthwhile view on the efficacy of the vaccines or of  the balance of good and harm from them . I have not read enough of the literature and have no medical training . Yesterday I reported the NHS line and the questions raised by some MP s over the vaccines.I have myself raised other big issues over the way government responded to the pandemic. At the time I raised queries about the statistics presented for infections and deaths.I did not presume to advise my constituents as some non medically qualified MP s did over getting vaccinated. If asked I suggested they talked to a medical adviser they trusted.

During the covid period I did have strong views on the economic damage done by extensive lockdowns. I worked with a small group of MP s to press for  Parliament to be up and running and then for the earlier return of an active in person Parliament. I saw the need for more scrutiny of the wide ranging actions being taken to direct the economy and to spend large new budgets on healthcare.  I argued for concentrating protections on the vulnerable and helping them safely avoid contact with possible disease carriers, rather than getting most of us to avoid contacts outside our own family or bubble. I voted and argued for less extensive lockdowns.

I also pressed for more work on the possible approval and use of existing medicines to blunt the virus and help with symptoms for those infected. I argued for isolation hospitals to be separate from other general hospitals, for the Nightingale capacity to be used, for more use of the private sector hospitals for non covid patients, for better air flow and air cleansing in hospitals and other public buildings. I have subsequently sent in these issues for the Covid Enquiry to consider when they can spare time from examining the issues over how Ministers behaved. To produce a good report they need to examine the scientific work, forecasts , NHS management of greatly increased resource and medical advice offered as it evolved during the waves of the virus.

I have not published all contributions from yesterday. The share prices of pharmaceutical companies generally have fallen this year for a variety of reasons. The  lawsuits I see raised as contributors to share declines are about infringement of patents, rather than  harms from covid vaccines. Governments often issued some exemptions from liability to speed introduction of vaccines that they thought would save lives.

Governments and medical experts continue to recommend a range of covid vaccines, and have made decisions now about which ones they prefer to use. Anyone thinking of having vaccinations can now find plenty of information about side effects and about what has happened to a small proportion  of people who have experienced greater harm than a sore arm and feeling a bit under the weather for a few days. Those who do dislike these vaccines can make their own decisions as they are free to do and can study outcomes so far from using these treatments.

Vaccines harm and compensation

On Friday Parliament debated the issues surrounding vaccines and in particular the various covid vaccines. Christopher Chope  produced a private members bill to improve payments to anyone badly affected by vaccine. The Minister reminded the House that anyone can claim a one off £120,000 payment if they have proof of disability and harm from taking an NHS vaccine. This applies to any vaccine including one against covid. The government added the anti covid treatments to the list of those items covered. The Minister explained that the one off payment does not exclude benefit payments for disability and sickness which may be necessary for anyone badly affected by a vaccine as well as by other more usual  causes of disability and ill health. The one off payment is  not compensation.  The Minister argued that such incidence was unusual for covid and for other approved vaccines. It is unlikely the Bill will pass as it seems that the government and the Opposition disagree with it, thinking current arrangements to make payments are sufficient subject to admin improvements to ensure prompt payment.

The Adjournment debate is a half hour debate at the end of the day’s business when a single member can be allotted the time to make a case they think important and  hear a Minister’s reply. Andrew Bridgen secured this slot to point out  that there were too many excess deaths continuing in the UK and to argue these were related to the covid vaccination of most people.

The Minister drawing on her NHS medical  advice agreed that excess deaths were continuing at higher levels than before covid, but denied this resulted from the vaccinations. She argued that because 93.6% of the population had been vaccinated it was true most people dying were those who had the vaccine. It did not prove or mean  the  vaccine  caused those deaths. Nor did she detect a lower death rate amongst the minority who had not been vaccinated. She said there was some inconclusive  evidence that non vaccinated people suffered a higher death rate than vaccinated.  She argued that there were a  variety of  causes of continuing excess deaths, including the backlog of treatments, bad outbreaks of flu, and a range of other killers running higher.

Work on the sudden death of young people from blood clots we are told has revealed  a small number of  cases brought on by vaccines, but we are told more people die of blood clots from contracting covid.  The Opposition supported the government in the debate of the Chope Bill and made clear their belief in the efficacy and success of the vaccines administered by the  NHS.

I set this out as I know some constituents and readers are concerned about these matters. I have  no medical knowledge or evidence to challenge the NHS/Ministerial view that these vaccines like all such treatments adversely affected a small number of people per million injected but are  not the main  cause of the current continuing spate of excess deaths. I offer people the chance to debate this further but will not publish contributions that potentially libel the NHS or drug companies based on coincidence or circumstantial evidence with  no  proof of causation. It was of course open to people not to take the vaccine if they did not like what was said about possible side effects, or about the balance between possible harms and possible benefits of taking it. The authorities  always said there could be some side effects and put in place a reporting system to monitor them.  The issue for some Health staff is  different if they had to take it. Everyone was aware these vaccines were developed at pace and approved to offer some defence against the virus when understanding of it was evolving.

I followed the debate carefully but did not contribute as I do not  have any special knowledge or evidence to present to  disagree with the NHS view. The argument that excess deaths today result from the vaccine need to show strong evidence of  more excess deaths for the vaccinated than the unvaccinated and to show causes of death are clearly linked to the vaccine impact rather than resulting from higher levels of death from a range of causes from dementia to flu.

 

By election messages

The main messages from the two by elections are that many Conservative voters do not like what the government is doing or not doing,  nor do they want to vote Labour.

The secondary message is if frustrated  Conservatives vote Reform they can tip the balance between a Conservative and a Labour MP but they are miles off winning a seat even  in by election conditions.

It confirms my view that the government needs to cut taxes urgently, control spending better, make a substantial reduction in legal migration and follow through on its pro drivers pro personal freedoms policies.

The government needs an urgent  budget to expand business and supply, cut the rising prices of energy with temporary tax cuts all the  time oil is over $75 a barrel and help more people into work. Reverse the IR 35 changes and up the small business VAT threshold for starters. This is all affordable given the way this year tax revenue is well ahead of OBR forecasts.

My second Intervention on the Energy Bill

My Intervention on the Energy Bill

My Speech on the Levelling Up Bill

John Redwood, (Wok, Cons):

First, I wish to address the question of housing supply in the national planning policy framework, amendment 44 and others. I support the Government in rejecting the Lords amendments—in most cases, those amendments make the Bill worse—but we need greater clarity from the Government about how the national planning policy framework and the definition of needs in any national intervention relate to what is done locally. The Minister has been a clear advocate of more devolved power, and the one power my local community would like is more power to decide how many houses we can fit in and where they could be built. That is not clear yet, and I look forward to further clarification and further documentation.

I am pleased that the five-year supply of land calculation has been amended, because that was causing considerable trouble. Wokingham Borough Council was more than hitting the five-year target, but we were constantly told by inspectors that we were not, because they calculated the numbers in a different, and we thought rather perverse, way. We never got any credit for greatly outperforming the average that we were meant to be building under the local plan, with all the difficulties that were being created by people living on many building sites in the local area.

That brings me on to the amendments and the debate, and the commentary that we have been hearing on the general issue of levelling up—the subject of the Bill—and how that relates to devolved government. I remind all parties in the House who have a fit of enthusiasm for the proposition that more devolved government will naturally lead to levelling up to look at the experience so far. They should understand that there are many occasions on which devolved powers are created or granted when levelling up does not occur or when things even go backwards. I will not argue with the decisions of the many local communities who have voted fairly in a referendum to have various types of devolved government. I am a great supporter of referenda and a great respecter of their results. I am not urging changes to the current complex structure of devolved government, but that should not stop us analysing whether it is working and whether it can be improved within its own terms and in how it operates.

The biggest example of devolved government is the devolved Government of Scotland. It is now a good time to review how well that has been working, because we were told that devolution would boost the Scottish growth rate and improve Scottish public services relative to public services elsewhere. So far this century—the period in which we have experienced devolved government with considerable powers—Scotland has always had considerably more money per head for public services than England, yet the Scottish growth rate has been lower than the English growth rate.

Scotland comes into the House today to demand bigger levelling-up moneys, because clearly more than two decades of Scottish independent government in many areas has not levelled Scotland up yet. We need to ask why that has failed. What was wrong with the conduct of the SNP Government and, before that, were there defects in the Labour-led Government in Scotland? How could future Governments in Scotland use those powers and the considerable sums of money granted to better effect?

What matters is which parts of the country attract most of the private investment. For all the public investment that Governments have put in, it will always be greatly exceeded by the total amount of private sector investment, because in our more free enterprise society, our private sector economy is still larger than the public sector economy, unlike in true socialist or communist states. That private investment is often the driver of many of the better-paid jobs and levelling-up opportunities that can then be created.

I am keen that we get a better balance in where new housing is built not so much because of the impact that I see of too much housing being put up in a hurry in my area, but because I think that more of that investment should go to places that want levelling-up moneys and that need a better balance of development. Those places could do with a lot of the private investment that all too often comes to parts of the country that do not qualify for levelling-up money.

Every time I get a new housing estate in Wokingham, I have to go to a Minister and say, “We need a new primary school.” After we have had half a dozen new housing estates, as we regularly do, I have to go and say, “We need a new secondary school.” Those are big ticket items, and that is big public sector investment that has to go to a part of the country that does not need to be levelled up. More difficult is trying to get money for roads, because we have this strange idea that we can put as many housing estates as we like into a place like Wokingham and magically our existing road network will take it when people buy those houses and practically all of them have cars; well, it cannot. We then need bypasses, extra road capacity or extra train capacity. We need the utilities to put in more water and electricity capacity, otherwise we have the embarrassment that we have lovely new houses, but it is difficult to hitch them up to a grid that works. There are great pressures and huge amounts of consequential investment from the new housing that comes into a congested area of the country that does not qualify for levelling up.

I urge all parties to do a little more thinking about how we level up areas and to ask why it is that so many people wish to visit huge amounts of private sector housing investment in places that are levelled up, while starving the rest of the country of it, when it is often the motor of the levelling up that they seek.

Conservative Home article on managing the economy

The Treasury and the Bank put out a wrong narrative on the economy. The Bank  claims it is independent and responsible for counter inflation,  but denies any blame for the great inflation that we are living through. It belatedly and at slow pace is reviewing why it got its inflation forecasts so wrong. You would expect it to move more quickly as how can it control inflation properly going forward if it does not know what it is likely to be? The Treasury and OBR are so far unrepentant for their wildly wrong forecasts of the deficits in recent years, yet still full of themselves in telling us we cannot afford any tax cuts. How can they know this when they cannot forecast tax revenues at all accurately, and have a model which does not seem to understand that tax revenues tend to rise with more growth and fall with more austerity?
           Of course the Ministers and Shadow Ministers must defend officials in public and work with them in private to get a good answer.   It is not, however, the Minister or Shadow Minister’s role to pretend all is well when big mistakes are being made. It is certainly  not a good idea to accept advice which is wrong, based on models, forecasts and economic theories that have done much damage in the past. The Minister needs to institute reform from within whilst declining the advice in the meantime if it visibly depends on things that have done harm recently.  The Shadow Minister should be critical from without, blaming the Minister for a bad scheme or wrong forecasts or  bad advice if the Minister is  relying on them. It is the Minister’s job to look for and take good advice, not to accept bad advice because of who put it forward. The media should not be reverently presenting every OBR and Bank forecast and statement as the gospel when it has been so wrong in the recent past. It should be shining a critical light on how the Bank forecast 2% inflation and we got 11%, and how the OBR was more than £100bn out on deficits when they claimed to be able to pin point the need for £10bn  or £20bn  of more tax revenue.
         Instead, both the main parties now are telling us we need to accept an iron financial discipline designed by the OBR. Labour wants to double up on the OBR discipline the government accepts, apparently oblivious of the huge errors in deficit forecasting in a control system that relies on forecasts of the deficit to determine spending and taxes.   The Chancellor briefs the press that there is no scope for tax cuts based on strange forecasts for five years time, when the only thing we should  all agree about is the five year forecast is bound to be wrong.  So many things might have changed by five years time, whatever the result of the next election . Few professional forecasters would wish to give you a spot forecast for the government deficit that far forward, but would reluctantly  give you a range based on  varying scenarios.
           Don’t get me wrong. I do not want the state  to spend and borrow more.  I am all in favour of getting the deficit down, but do not think high tax rates and austerity achieve that. More often in the past that approach has put the economy into recession, cutting tax revenues, boosting the costs of economic failure  and so increasing the deficit. What we need is better spending control, a vigorous assault on the unprecedented 7.5% large fall in public sector productivity this decade, and a combined monetary and fiscal policy that takes inflation seriously. We have lived through  several years of  both parties  agreeing a  policy of spending huge extra sums on covid relief and public services, with Labour usually complaining that the very large rises are not sufficient in some important  areas. No party  queried the  printing of  huge sums of money to keep rates low and bond prices high, powered by a Bank of England that paid ever more expensive prices to buy bonds. In 2021 those of us who warned of the dangers of  the Bank  extending bond buying and money creation too far into recovery after a necessary offset to lockdown were ignored. It proved inflationary, as we  feared and as they denied.  Now the Bank has lurched to a very tight monetary policy and is dumping the very bonds it paid too much for at ever lower prices, maximising the losses it is making.
          Over the last year the Treasury has followed a policy they told us would stabilise the bond markets. Instead bonds have fallen further, pushing interest rates up a bit more. The ten year and the thirty year rates of interest hit new highs recently , above the level of  last autumn which attracted so much criticism. So the higher taxes did not bring the rates down or save the  value of the bonds. This should not surprise anyone. Throughout the last year the Bank of England has been threatening higher bank  rates, raising rates and selling loads of bonds at ever lower prices, driving the market down. It was the Bank of England’s announcement of higher rates and the plan to sell £80bn of government bonds on the eve of the Kwarteng budget that sped the fall last autumn, at a time when the Fed and ECB were doing the same to their bond markets. The Bank engineered a rally last autumn in prices by  a temporary reversal of the bond selling. The Bank realised late that bond prices were  destabilising some  pension funds who held too many  bonds and showed it could  get the  market up if it wanted. Surely those experiences should lead people to see the Bank had an important role and still has an important role in driving rates higher and bonds lower? The recent sell off in bonds clearly wasn’t the fault of Mr Kwarteng and I don’t think Mr Hunt had anything to do with it either.
            The UK economy can perform better. The covid lockdowns were a bad  economic blow agreed to by all front benches in Parliament. The bitter Ukraine war gave energy prices a savage twist, though the general inflation was well set before the war. Inflation in the Uk was three times target on the eve of the hostilities. Today the economy needs more growth as well as lower inflation. It should not be a  case of getting inflation down with a recession  first, then thinking about monetary stimulus to cheer things up. What is needed is a successful drive to boost public sector productivity, to at least get it back to 2019 levels, a reining in of some  nice to have but not essential spending, and some tax reductions and incentives to boost investment and output. Ending the HS 2 scheme where it can be cancelled and spending on better cheaper transport links that can come in sooner is a good step. Granting permissions to extract more of our own oil and gas from the North Sea down half empty pipelines is very positive, boosting output and tax revenues. It also needs lower taxes on small business, the self employed and company profits. These can be afforded within a sensible deficit reduction strategy, with models that realistically  capture how more output delivers more revenue.

My Intervention in the Prison Capacity Ministerial Statement

John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con):
I strongly welcome the proposal to deport more foreign criminals, and I also support the idea of finding something better than prison for non-violent offenders. Will that include, wherever possible, their need to have a job legally and to pay compensation to those against whom they have committed fraud, theft and other financial crimes?

Alex Chalk, Secretary of State for Justice:
My right hon. Friend makes two excellent points. It is worth reflecting on the fact that since 2019, we have deported around 15,000 foreign national offenders. A huge amount of work has taken place, and that will continue, albeit at an even greater pace.

The second point he makes is fundamental. Judges already have the power to impose a compensation order in the event that someone is convicted of a crime, but their ability to do so is determined by the funds that are available to that individual. How much better it is if the individual can go out and do an honest day’s work to generate more income, so that they can, in a small way, put right the crime they have committed and the damage they have done.

My Intervention on the Zero-emission vehicles, drivers and HS2 Ministerial Statement

John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con):
Many councils apply for grants in order to make changes to their local roads. When considering these applications, will Ministers ensure that they do not end up paying for schemes that cut local capacity on crucial roads and make drivers’ lives a misery?

Mr Harper, Secretary of State for Transport:
My right hon. Friend makes a very good point about what we should prioritise when funding roads. He should know that one of the important changes I have made is to make sure that our active travel team is focused on delivering cycling and walking schemes that increase choice, rather than focusing on driving people out of their cars. I hope he will welcome that important change.