It comes to something when a leader of the Opposition reads in papers usually friendly to his cause that senior figures in his party do not want him to stay on after he has lost the General Election. It is particularly strange to see this when most polls still put Labour ahead for 2015 and some show Labour winning an overall majority. So why is this happening?

In part it is the arithmetic of the polls. To be sure of winning an opposition party needs to be well ahead at this stage, as the run up to a General Election, particularly with an improving economy, may see a swing to the governing party. In part it is Mr Miliband’s defensive and unambitious strategy. Most of what he is trying to do is geared to reassuring core voters rather than winning new support.

Mr Miliband’s main problem has been his approach to the economy. He spent the first two years in opposition claiming that the government’s economic strategy would lead to further recession. He had no plan B for when recovery broke out, and looked upset that things are now improving. He spent the next period defining a new campaign about the “cost of living crisis” as he called it, just in time for inflation to slump, employment to pick up, and some wages to start to rise more than prices. Again his timing was poor and his ability to predict was faulty.

His main aim has been to run a series of linked campaigns against big business. Rightly seeing that big banks, big oil companies, big energy companies and others are unpopular, he sought to boost his popularity by threatening them. Each individual policy polled well. Who wouldn’t like a cheaper energy bill, cheaper fuel or a more attentive bank? Taken together, however, these policies have probably also weakened Labour’s rankings for economic competence. People are canny enough to know we do need big business, warts and all, and a government could make things worse by the wrong kind of intervention. Say it produces an investment strike? Say the big companies find ways round the price control?

Mr Miliband has to woo people who run businesses, who set up for themselves, who take risks, who save, who have decent jobs. He needs more of them to vote for him. His current strategy sends out the message that only the poor are safe voting Labour. That was not the way Mr Blair or Mr Wilson won elections.

As someone who would never be considered for the EU Commission Presidency, coming from the wrong country and holding the wrong views, let me enjoy the privilege of the interested outsider and sketch what needs to be done.

Any incoming President has to be wedded to the success of the Euro area, and aware of the remaining dangers to it. He or she would also be wise to want a solution to the British problem, where the UK wishes to reinforce its absence from the Euro by avoiding political union. Solving the two problems together is easier than regarding the British problem as a nuisance or a different issue. They are in fact two related problems. The British wish for more distance from the EU core has grown as the core has centralised more to make the Euro work.

It is fashionable to think the only way to make the Euro work better is to centralise everything more. One possible answer to the recurring Euro crises would be to create a country called the USE. Political union would mean not just a common criminal law, open borders, free movement and a common foreign policy. It would also need large transfers of money from rich to poor. Bavaria would need to pay the unemployment benefit bills of Greece. German taxpayers will need to stand behind Spanish banks and be willing to  bail them out if they fail. I am not sure German, Dutch and Austrian taxpayers are ready for that amount of commitment yet.

The other way to allow the Euro to survive is to build on the compromises and concealed assistance apparent  in the current scheme, but to add policies to the EU generally which promote greater growth and more employment. This would ease some of the tensions and cut some of the bills for economic failure in the countries which are struggling within the Eurozone. Such policies might also be more attractive to the UK.  Today the richer countries stand behind the weaker banks of the poorer countries via the ECB. They allow transfers of money through the cheap credit lines the ECB extends to banks in struggling countries. They may end up allowing money printing in some form or other to try to get the value of the Euro down and the levels of economic activity up.

So what are the policies which the EU could pursue which would promote more growth  and reassure moderate Eurosceptics from the UK? They would have to be policies which cut the amount of legislation and regulation from the EU. We need actions which return control of activities to national governments from Brussels, or give national Parliaments more say over which proposals from the EU any given country adopts. Failed common policies like fishing and agriculture need reform. Many laws and regulations can be removed as you do not need to force everyone to make and do things the same way to be able to trade with each other.

More importantly, the EU needs to see that its biggest mistake in recent years which is doing great damage to the potential of industry across the continent, is the energy policy. EU countries cannot sustain the industry they have or increase the industry they generate all the time the EU imposes much higher energy prices on economies than the USA or Asia. This still leaves the vexatious issue of free movement of workers  and benefit seeking , which I will return to in another post.

It is an odd idea for the EU to hold an important meeting at Ypres and then to say the participants cannot have a good row there because of the past tragic history. Surely the whole point is to pursue disagreements by words and politics rather than by shells and machine guns?

Mr Cameron has every right to dig in over the appointment of the next EU President of the Commission. This post is not the same as choosing a new Cabinet Secretary. The President is more than a very senior official. The President has direct powers to act, and will help shape EU policy and laws for the next five years. He will also have a face and a voice in  EU politics like a senior politician. The fact that he is digging in when he may well lose the vote just shows how far apart the EU establishment is from reformers and the UK.

Mr  Cameron represents an important country in Europe which has no wish to go the federalist centralising route. In the recent EU elections more than half the UK voters voted deliberately for anti EU or anti federal government parties. The socialist/Labour federalist party deliberately avoided all discussion of the EU agenda and  future EU laws, and of their candidate for the EU Presidency. They realised to talk about them  would make them more unpopular. In no sense did the UK vote for or against Mr Juncker or any other candidates for the Commission Presidency.

The problem for the UK is the European Parliament was given co decision powers at Lisbon which mean that if a majority of the Parliament agree about who should be President of the Commission they can hold out until the Council has to propose him. They have a veto on any candidate they do not want. Mr Cameron wishes to defend the right of the Council to propose and decide the Presidency of the Commission, on the reasonable grounds that the Heads of government have a better mandate and more popular support than the MEPs. The trouble is, that view requires the modification of the Treaties to reflect it fully in legal reality.

All this just goes to show the UK cannot be part of the emerging superstate. The rest of the EU is a single currency busily creating a country to back its adolescent money. The UK needs a new relationship with this grouping as soon as possible. We want to trade with them and be friends with them, but we do not wish to be part of their political union. Lisbon was the wrong Treaty for us.

Apparently Roy Hodgson is the right man for the England manager’s job. He is paid an estimated £3 million plus, and is eligible for various bonuses, making him one of the best paid national managers. The FA did not stint in their cash or verbal support for their man.

In his last four managerial posts his teams have struggled to win enough games. Finland won 27% of their matches under him, Fulham 39%, Liverpool 42% and West Brom 37%. He collected no silverware during  any of those assignments.

The manager’s role includes selection of squad players and of teams, training of squad players, and leading the team on their formation and tactics for each match.  Clearly things have gone wrong in each of these areas in Brazil, with many armchair pundits having their own views on which were the worst errors.

The less well paid Uruguay manager worked out how to inspire or allow Senor Suarez to show his aggression in running into space, his skill at controlling the ball and his devastating ability to shoot when in range. Senor Suarez has not been the easiest player for the Liverpool manager to manage. Mr Hodgson did not have the same success with his chosen celebrity player, Mr Rooney.

I would be interested in your views on whether Mr Hodgson is the right man for the job. I would also be interested to hear your thoughts on his remuneration. I fully understand the idea of paying the England manager multi million bonuses if the team wins lots of games and gets into the more advanced rounds of the World Cup. Had England done so then there would be big increases in fan base, shirt and memorabilia sales revenue and tv audience for the English and domestic league  games.

I wonder what would happen if the FA said an England manager should have a basic around 10% of the £3m figure mentioned in the press with  most of his possible  pay performance driven. This would still leave the manager well paid earning many times the average fan’s income with no money worries to divert him from doing everything needed to get England into winning ways. It would give him every incentive  to win the big bonuses that would then be justified as milestones were achieved.

The winning English rugby team that lifted the World Cup considered so many things that could add the extra bit to performance. They had an eye coach, who apparently told them their eye muscles were the most important muscles they had. They needed to train them to see the game position, find the space to run and kick into, and see their support players. The English soccer team need great ball control skills, need to read the game and create space just like the rugby players. Winning is about  detail and dedication. It is about practicing for the opportunities and circumstances that a game may create.

Following a request I have now reminded myself of the so called Bradbury pounds.  It is a very similar device to creating money and buying gilts through the Bank of England, a nationalised bank which is therefore backed by and working with the Treasury. The authorities do not think it would be a good idea to print more money now, as it could prove inflationary. When they did choose to print they did so by a different route, which did not make a lot of difference to the idea. Buying up government bonds allowed them to spend more in the public sector without facing a debt or interest rate constraint on their spending.

One of the reasons the Bank of England is slow to raise interest rates is the strength of sterling. As sterling rises against the dollar and the Euro, the two largest counter-party currencies for our trade, so prices of imports are kept down. Its acts as a constraint on our exporters raising their costs and prices, as they seek to compete in the world market against the background of a rising currency.  Most of the effects are benign.

A rising currency can also mean UK customers want to buy more imports, which get cheaper, and  more can afford foreign holidays. It means there is an added incentive for foreign investors to buy UK property and other assets, as they benefit from a currency gain as well.  A rising currency acts a bit like a rising interest rate, putting downwards pressure on domestic costs.

So why is this happening, and will it continue? For the moment it looks as if it might, as so far it is creating a virtu0us circle – lower RPI and CPI inflation, better growth, a higher currency. It is happening at a time when the UK has finished its Quantitative Easing money -0r money printing programmes. The USA is still continuing with its programme of money creation, though it is now reducing the extra amounts printed month by month. The Euro area is talking about taking more monetary loosening measures. If all else is equal those who print most of their currency should expect it to fall in value against those who do not.

Markets expect an earlier move to higher interest rates in the UK than in the USA, and are not even thinking about rises in Euro rates. There the last recent move was a further cut. Currencies tend to strengthen when expectations are of an increase in rates, unless there is a  underlying crisis forcing the increases.

It is good news that retail inflation is low, and even energy inflation has come down. The problem for the Bank is that asset inflation may continue even against a low general inflationary background. There remains the issue of fairness between savers and borrowers to consider as well. It is likely they will bring forward the first rate rise from the middle of 2015 as originally planned or hinted at.

England has 16 times as many people to choose a football team from as Uruguay

England has a GDP 45 times the size of Uruguay

England has three times as many top clubs in its league as Uruguay.

Result: Uruguay 2, England 1.

Any comments?

As we watch fledgling democracies struggling to survive, facing coups or demands for government change between elections, we need to remind ourselves of the characteristics of successful democratic government.

In  mature democracies the sensible elected officials understand they have to represent all their constituents, not just those who agreed with them and voted for them. Any constituent deserves honest and independent representation in a just cause. Any constituent has a right to their view to be heard and considered, even where it clearly disagrees with the ruling party or the local MP.

A successful democratic government understands that it cannot just govern in the interests of the majority or the largest minority that happened to vote for it. There are times when an elected government has to do things its own supporters do not like, and times when it has to adapt to moods and shifts in opinion that it did not wish to see or had not been  able to forecast. Successful  democratic leaders draw support more widely than from their own party, and succeed in  persuading the opposition to alter its approach and not repeal or alter what they do in power when eventually the government changes.

Mr Miliband’s approach of returning  to his left of centre comfort zone and support base is causing difficulties for him and his party as they seek the 40% plus in the polls that opposition parties usually need to offer a hope of winning an election outright. His latest proposal on JSA and young people in need of work is a sign that he is now looking for headlines that are different from his normal Guardian road tested policies, though the detail is disappointing and adds little to what the coalition is already trying to do to help the young into work by assisting them find apprenticeships and pick up the skills they need. Labour are finding it difficult to frame policies on welfare and migration that appeal and assist in tackling these big problems.

The UK has battled to keep its banking and financial system out of EU regulation and taxation. We have been assured that the EU will not impose taxes on us against our will. We have been assured the UK will not have to be part of any future Euroland bail out. The UK government negotiated an opt out for UK banks from some of the regulations the EU requires of others. So far so good.

11 member states of the EU plan to press ahead with a Financial Transactions Tax despite the opposition of the UK and a majority of the member states. They will seek to impose this on some business in London as well as on business in Paris and Frankfurt. This week we read of legal advice concerning the UK’s partial opt out from banking regulations. The EU is  now claiming that banking is part of the single market, so the UK cannot opt out.

The federal ECB and ECJ continue in  their quest to harmonise and control most of EU life. The ECJ is often unhelpful to carefully crafted exemptions and opt outs which UK governments have successfully negotiated. It should make us doubly wary of what the EU might offer when the renegotiation gets underway. One of the issues in the negotiation must be the issue of trust, and how to avoid the Court overruling us when it suits them to do so.

The City has been a longstanding friend of the EU, believing it will increase its business reach. Now the City is increasingly in the front line in dispute with its new regulators and masters. The EU has taken a different view on remuneration, proprietary trading, short selling, the Financial Transaction Tax and banking regulation than many in the City wish. Will this start to change City enthusiasm for continued membership on current terms. The City will not disagree with the EU on the things that matter to more voters, but if the City ceases to be such a cheerleader for the EU it might make a difference to others in the debate.