John Redwood's Diary
Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems. Promoted by John Redwood 152 Grosvenor Road SW1V 3JL

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I agree with Nick – up to a point

 

When Nick Clegg says he wants to “keep Britain propserous, safe and strong” I say I agree. When he says he wants to stay in Europe because that “means in work” I ask  has he looked at the unemployment statistics in much of the EU recently?

He trots out the old fib about keeping 3million jobs in our export industries by staying in, as if we would lose our trade with the EU if we have a new relationship or simply left. Germany is very keen to keep the same arrangements as at present for trade so she can continue to export so much to us, whether we leave or stay in.

He should ask why so many of the Euro area countries are blighted by very high unemployment. Why are Spain and Greece cursed with unemployment of around a quarter, more than three times our rate? Why is youth unemployment at the shocking rate of 50% in parts of the zone? Why has Euro growth been non existent for the last three years, when the UK has managed 3% and the USA 8%?

It is good to see the Liberal Democrats coming out to  explain their views. Whilst they do so in ways which are often unflattering about their Conservative partners in government, it does confirm that this Coalition has been riven by major disagreements, especially on the question of the EU.

The Liberal Democrats may not be good allies. They do seem now to want to stress just how many disagreements there are.  There is no sense of Ministerial unity or common purpose in a series of statements from senior Lib Dems in recent days.  There is none bigger than over the EU. The biggest disappointment for most Conservatives about the Coalition is summed up in the juvenile defence of our membership sent out this week by Mr Clegg. He is wrong that prosperity and stability have been assured in Euroland, when the opposite has been the case thanks to the Euro crisis, mass unemployment and lack of growth. He is wrong to say the EU offers and guarantees us jobs, when the decline of the EU market has adversely hit our exports, and when countries outside the EU have been offered as good or better terms to trade with the EU than we have as an inside  member.

There is indeed, Mr Clegg, a big disagreement between the two parties on the EU and our future in relation to it. It is a huge pity Mr Clegg stands in the way of getting on with renegotiating  our relationship immediately. That could lead to more jobs and more stability for us, backed as it is by the option of leaving if a sensible relationship is not on offer.

Environment Agency – a large pension fund with more than 11,000 staff attached

 

The total liability the Environment Agency and the taxpayers share for the future pensions of Agency staff is now at a massive £2.5bn. There are assets, leaving a £380million deficit on these numbers. The Pension fund is valued on the assumption that staff salaries will rise by 4.6% per annum from 2015.

The Agency does not seem to be a good manager of its staff, nor able to raise productivity. Last year it increased staff numbers by 900. Despite doing this it also agreed redundancy packages for 43 people, costing us another £2.6milllion. In other words it makes bad recruitment decisions, changes its mind, gives people a pay off, yet is at the same time expanding the overall numbers considerably. Having gone to the expense and trouble of recruiting someone, why can they then find nothing for them to do, fire them, and hire twenty other people with all the costs that entails?

The Agency has seven Directors on salaries in excess of £130,000, with the best paid on nearly £200,000. That is well above the Prime Minister’s pay. It would be good to hear from the Directors of this body what they are going to do to get better value for money, and to ensure more of the £1200 million a year spend goes on flood prevention and water management. Perhaps the BBC would like to call in the Chairman or CEO and ask them, based on the figures?

Emerging market troubles

 

In recent weeks we have seen the old truths reassert themselves in international economics. Countries that are running large balance of payments deficits in the emerging world have suffered substantial falls in their currencies. This has of course made imports dearer, which may cut their deficit a bit, but it reflects the doubts some in markets share about how they will be able to borrow enough to carry on living beyond their means.

When the currency falls too far too fast for comfort, inflation starts to accelerate in  the country affected. The authorities then respond by putting up interest rates. They also sometimes reach for controls, seeking to stop people in their country taking so much money abroad, or preventing them from buying foreign products. Quite often it is the most socialist of governments that resorts to the highest interest rates and the most draconian controls. They clearly do not do this wanting  to hit the living standards of the poor, though that is what it does. They do it because they feel they have no alternative.

If their country is at the same time heavily in debt and the state os overspending, it adds to the agony. Argentina has suffered a large devalaution, and there are worries over when and how she will repay her debts. Argentina defaulted on her debts in 2002. Now the government has doubled public spending over the last 11 years, only to set up another debt and inflation crisis. Far from being kind to the poor, the new squeeze is unpleasant. It includes curbs on internet purchases.  Inflation is around 30%.

Venezuela is also in deep trouble. Turkey now has had to increase interest rates by 400 basis points – an extra 4% on a loan – to try to buttress its position. The Argentinian peso has fallen almost 20% this year, the Turkish lira 5% and the South African rand 7%.

So to all thsoe who say a country can carry on borrowing, spending more in the public sector  and printing as much as it likes, I just ask why isn’t that magic formula working in emerging market countries these days? If socialist policies of spending much more in  the public sector worked, Argentina would have one of the most successful economies, along with Venezuela.

Mr Gove should appoint the person he considers best

 

It is difficult to believe that there is so much fuss over Mr Gove’s decision not to reappoint a Labour peeress to a Quango on expiry of her contract.  It is even more bizarre to complain that he is trying to politicise these appointments, when the outgoing person is a Labour politician.

As we have now read, Labour made many more Labour appointments to quangos than the Coalition has made Conservative appointments, adjusted for the periods of time involved so far. I saw nothing wrong in principle with Labour Ministers appointing Labour supporters to these important jobs. Doubtless they wanted people running these arms of the state who shared their general world view and aims. Of course they needed to undertake fair recruitment process and ensure that if someone was a known Labour supporter they had the qualifications and experience to justify the appointment. So why then do they dare to complain if occasionally Conservative Ministers take the same view about their supporters? Should a known Conservative who is qualified now be banned from a quango appointment because he or she is a Conservative?

This row raises some wider issues. Why is so much power concentrated in the hands of these quangos, when Ministers maybe should take more control and accept more responsibility for what is going on.  There is no evidence that so called independent bodies are better at judging matters than elected Ministers acting on good professional advice. Just look at the mess the independent Bank of England and the FSA made of banking regulation, bringing on the worse crash in more than century. Previous Chancellors who had more direct control did better. Or look at the Environment Agency’s decision to allow  floods in  large parts of the country.

Can we really believe there are truly independent people in areas of great contention? The global warming theory supporters would not regard an appointee to the job of Environment Agency Head  as properly qualified if they   did not believe in global warming theory . Anti global warming theorists regard the appointment of a pro theory person as  folly or treachery. These are political minefields, and no-one is in this case “independent”. A School Inpsector who believes comprehensives are best might set different standards from one who thinks the best grammars and private sector schools are the ones to match. This again is political territory.

I favour bringing more powers back from quangos to Ministers. Better still let’s find more powers quangos have which we could return to people and  businesses, leaving them freer to do as they see fit. And let Mr Gove choose who he will. It will be his results that we judge in 2015, so he should have the helpers he needs to do the job.

 

 

What the Today programme should have asked the Environment Agency

 

          Yesterday morning I heard a patsy interview of a senior manager of the Environment Agency. It started with sympathy for the difficult time they are experiencing, went on to ask them if they needed more money to do their job, and ended with the usual invitation to express the helplessness of the Agency before the force of climate change.  I can only assume the BBC are  colluding with this body, as I know they can give tough interviews if they wish. You would have thought they would pick up the public anger. Don’t they think it unacceptable that people have flooded homes and businesses?  Isn’t the main point of the Agency to do what it takes to protect us from floods and ensure we are supplied with clean water and a good waste water service? Where did the £1200 million spent last year go?

          What should they have asked?

          They should first have explored the issue of whether it is a deliberate policy of the Agency to allow large parts of the country to be flooded, as they seem to wish to restore old landscape prior to the draining of the land to create homes and farms for people. It appears from various EA statements that they do hanker after more wetlands and fewer farms and homes in certain areas. It also appears from the Chairman’s recent article that they think they can only protect urban areas, and will sacrifice rural ones. Clearly it is government policy to protect people and farms from flooding wherever possible. The Agency may be at variance with this aim.

          They should have asked where all the £1200 million spent last year went. Why was only £20 m spent on maintaining ditches and culverts? Why so little on dredging? Have dredging machines been sold off for scrap or allowed to rust without use in some places as has been alleged?  Why did the INCREASE in the staff budget, £30m, exceed the total spend on essential maintenance?

           They should have asked why the Agency seems to think it is sufficient to warn people of impending floods, rather than putting in place the bunds, barriers, pumps and other methods to divert the water from homes and businesses?

             I want Ministers to bring  this quango to account. It will probably need a new Chairman to give it a sense of urgency, to sharpen its priorities in the way most people want, and get value out of the huge sums its spends.

Paris and London – a tale of disagreements

 

The French have often briefed against the Anglo Saxon way. They dislike our success at banking and financial services, disagree with policies that allow more freedom and flexibility to set up in business, to take a job or find a new employee, to encourage enterprise. President George Bush was not completely wrong if  he did famously say the French have no word for entrepreneur!

President Hollande set out on an interesting economic experiment. He was cheered on by socialists and bien pensant commentators on both sides of the Channel. Where the UK cut the top rate of tax he would increase it. Where the UK cut the tax rate on business, he would squeeze them harder to get them to pay their fair amount. Where the UK would curb the rate of increase in public spending, he would promote growth through a bigger public sector. Mr Miliband was egging him on, and used to refer favourably to the French experiment. Though he no longer is so keen on the French model as an example to us, he seems keen to copy parts of the policy  nonetheless.

So how has the French leader got on? He is now  very unpopular. The French economy hovers around another recession. Unemployment stays stubbornly above 11% compared to 7% for the UK. Youth unemployment is especially high. France has many areas of high deprivation in the big cities. The gap between Paris and the rest remains very large. 400,000 talented and hardworking French people are now working in London. Those recently interviewed by the BBC have told us they love the greater freedom, flexibility and positive environment London gives them to start up and grow a business.

It would be wrong to write Paris off. It is the only other great city in Europe besides London in terms of scale and prosperity levels. It still has many fine businesses and brands and many talented people who have not left. Similarly, it would be wrong to be complacent about London’s current success. Hidden in the figures is a decline in London as a financial centre relative to New York, thanks to tax and regulatory policies followed by the EU which are having more and more influence on the UK. Paris has lost a lot to London, London has lost high earning business activities to Switzerland, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

However, today France has deeper social and economic problems than the UK. Mr Hollande says he does not want fundamental reform of the EU or any Treaty change. The UK is pressing for it. If Paris wins this battle, as some expect, then that might merely hasten the UK’s exit when the people vote. Outside the EU the UK could pursue an agenda more friendly to business, jobs, success than we currently can achieve inside the EU. Then the gap between London and Paris would grow much greater in London’s favour. Does Paris want that outcome?

The Environment Agency – £593m on staff and pensions, £20million on culverts and channel improvements.

 

The Environment Agency last year received a £723m grant from the taxpayer and spent in total £1207m, the rest paid for by charges.

The staff costs of the Agency rose by £30m or 8% compared to the previous year, reaching a total of £395.3 million. The Agency employed 12,252 people including  temps and contractor personnel.  Pension contributions cost £56 m , with a loss on the fund recognised that year in the accounts bringing the total pension cost to £197.4 million.  The total cost of pensions was almost as high as the capital works, where they spent £219million during the year.

Within the capital works just £20.3 million was spent on improving or maintaining culverts and channels to ensure free flow of water. That is a mere 1.7% of their total budget, or 3.4% of their staff and pension costs. A further £69.6m was spent on improving embankments.

It looks as if the Agency has got the balance of its budget wrong. It clearly needs to spend more on keeping culverts, ditches and rivers in a good state to be able to handle large quantities of water when we have heavy rains.  The Agency spends a lot on people to warn us of approaching hazards, and to map and discuss the problems as they arise. It needs to do more and spend more of its large budget on works on the ground, probably using contractors not on its own payroll, to keep the water flowing.

It is an interesting to note that under the Coalition this quango has continued to be chaired by a senior Labour person. There does not seem to have been any attempt to remove the Labour Chairman, and he has clearly not made sufficient attempt to get value for money nor to ensure the Agency’s priorities are our priorities – keeping people and property safe from floods, and ensuring a good supply of clean fresh water for households and businesses. There is no evidence here to support Labour Lady Morgan’s claims.

Labour and Liberal Democrats kill the referendum bill

 

Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs mainly stayed away form the Referendum Bill in the Commons. They clearly recognised that a referendum is popular with their electors and they did  not want to be seen opposing it and voting it down. In the Lords Labour and Liberal democrat peers did vote it down by refusing it the extra time last evening it needed, and refusing to speed up consideration of their many needless amendments.

It is strange world where two parties love the EU and all its works, want us to stay in, yet are determined to deny the rest of us a say in a  referendum. The stealthy way they killed the Referendum Bill tells us a lot about their approach to this most important of issues. Mr Cameron intends to try again in the next session, and may also use  the Parliament Act.

A free Parliament or split parties?

 

I welcome the Conservative decision to have more free votes. Far from creating a split party, this encourages better debate and more thought by individual MPs. The Conservatives offered a free vote on the Raab Amendment to the Immigration Bill and will be offering another on the issue of smoking in cars carrying children.

I see the mythmakers are back saying that a  divided party cannot be elected to government. This is complete nonsense. Margaret Thatcher led a very split party. She was constantly subject to attacks from the group of MPs who disagreed strongly with her economic and social policies. Called the wets, they briefed against her, ran rebellions against her in Parliament, and encouraged Michael Heseltine as an alternative leader or challenger. She won three election victories in a  row despite this strong internal opposition.

Tony Blair led a  very disunited Labour party. A group of left wing Labour MPs were never reconciled to his leadership, regularly rebelled against it and made clear their general displeasure. More importantly, that government was riven with a huge split right at the top. The Brown and Blair factions fought each other over many issues, and regularly briefed the press against each other. This did not stop them winning three elections in a row.

It is true there were splits against John Major from the Eurosceptics, and against Gordon Brown from a  range of ambitious people who wanted to bring his leadership to an end, and these 2 leaders did lose heavily in subsequent General Elections. Most sensible commentators should surely recognise that John Major was  defeated  by the recession and crisis brought on by his decision to enter and stay in the Exchange Rate Mechanism. Gordon Brown was brought down primarily by presiding over the debt , borrowing and banking crisis of 2008.

Spare us the nonsense that independent thought by MPs leads to election loss. I do not expect the polls for the Conservatives to move downwards because Mr Raab dared to move an amendment. The polls under John Major did not move much with acts of rebellion, and when they did it was not always down. They slumped on exit from the ERM and on the economic problems that caused.

Free votes

 

There has been some very odd coverage of yesterday’s events in the Commons. Mr Raab’s amendment was decided by a free vote on the Coalition side, and a whipped vote to oppose it by Labour.  Those of us who voted for Mr Raab’s amendment were not therefore “rebels” as described in parts of the press. Conservative  Coalition Ministers abstained, presumably because there was no agreement between the two parties in the Coalition.

Labour opposed it on the grounds that it would be illegal. They were joined by Liberal Democrat MPs.  Mr Raab, a lawyer, had a different view and argued that it would not be illegal under the European Human Rights Convention. Had it been passed – and had it also passed the Lords – it might have been tested in court. Who can be sure what the outcome would have been? The UK government is 0ften these days tested in European courts for decisions they have taken.

Many MPs voting for the amendment, which would have made it easier to deport serious criminals from the UK, felt that anyway Parliament ought to have the power to be able  to change the law in these important matters, and that this needed to be re-established by Statute law.