The more I read about the economic disaster in Greece, the more I wish they would let them out of the currency straight jacket that is part of the problem.

           Greece has five main economic troubles. Its government has borrowed too much in the past, and wishes to carry on borrowing too much. The economy is declining year after year, as austerity bites with no currency depreciation or easier money to offer some relief. The balance of payments remain out of balance and difficult to finance, as Greece is not competitive with the more successful north of the Euro zone. Greece is mired in high unemployment, increasing its deficit and depressing its tax revenues. The banking system is weak. People afraid of the future are taking money out of Greece to put it into safer havens, doing more damage to activity in Greece.

           The official answer to all this is to raise taxes and cut public spending.  The aim is to cut the deficit, hoping  that the debt and deficit can be financed in the normal way. So far this has neither succeeded in cutting the deficit by an encouraging amount, nor has it impressed the bond markets. Greece remains miles off being able to finance itself in the usual way.

            The EU and IMF make heavy weather each time of lending more to Greece. The endless public arguments over how much more austerity Greece has to enforce to justify more borrowing undermines confidence more and leads to further money flight from the blighted country. An IMF programme for an indepenndent state with its own currency usually entails a devaluation  to price the country back into export markets and to cut the value of outstanding debts, and a sensible domestic money policy to allow private sector led expansion. Greece is denied both these features of a normal IMF programme by being in the Euro.

           The EU, IMF and Greece should make private decisions to move rapdily to a Greek exit from the Euro. There will be one off effects on debts, banks and the economy, followed by a real chance of econ0mic recovery. Greece needs growth. It needs more tax revenue to come in from more profit and income to tax. It needs more rich Greeks to keep their money at home or bring it back home. Only a new currency sensibly valued can  bring forward that confidence.

           Tomorrow we will look at how this could be done politcally and legally. It would be a much better option than doubling up the austerity as the economy continues to fall over the cliff. I do not accept that this would cause economic disaster. The price of Greek government bonds has already collapsed, Greek banks are already weak reflecting that and Euro area banks have already written down their positions in Greece. I do not see how Greece returns to decent growth on current policies, and growth is what it needs to give hope amongst the cuts. A devaluation, properly organised, merely acknowledges losses already recorded by investors in Greece, whilst starting the process of adjustment necessary to rebuild the economy.

 

 

 

           In the later months in opposition, when I and other economically minded Conservatives were giving advice to Shadow Ministers, we were often told that our tunes would change a year or two  into government. Wise Shadow Ministers knowingly explained to us that we might accept the  necessity of spending cuts in opposition,  but it would be very different in government. You will, they said, be demanding that we cut less and spare the spending. They expected our brave words to vanish like the melting snow.

             We are fast approaching the two year mark of the government. What is fascinating is that the position is the very opposite of that predicted by some Shadow Ministers. Many backbench Conservatives are uneasy about public spending, but for the opposite reason. There are a variety of areas where the backbenchers want it cut, where Ministers refuse to co-operate.

            Last week-end the unhappiness about taxpayers financing energy subsidies came to the fore. Most Conservatives would like the market to be allowed to operate, to provide more cheaper energy for constituents. Such a policy would spare taxpayers excessive subsidies for windfarms and the like, as well as delivering lower household and business bills. MPs think that is a double win.

             Then  there is the running sore of overseas aid. Many backbench Conservative MPs want the overseas aid budget to be targetted on the really poor and needy. Many of us are happy to be generous to those in great poverty, but do not think the fast expansion of the current budget is doing that. We pressed for China and India to be dropped from the list of aid recipients in 2010, and the money saved. The government  did not agree with us about India. This decision has now come back to bite it, with stories that the Indian government agrees with us backbenchers, and does not want the aid we send.

            Many backbenchers would dearly love to see the end of the HS2 project. Some agree with me that it should be deferred whilst we sort out the public accounts. A £33 billion project looks like an extravagance given the state of the budget, and given the running losses the new trains will make when they eventually run. It is true not a lot of money is going to be spent on its this Parliament, but every £750 million helps. It has also become a kind of symbol of how serious people are about controlling spending. Adding such a large new project before the national accounts are anywhere near stabilised looks rash.

            Then  there is the vexed issue of public sector pensions. The backbenches have been sensible about accepting that MPs pensions, like the rest of the public sector, need to be cut. They have been resolute about the threats to industrial action that have resulted from the government’s plans. The bigger worry for quite a few backbenchers is we are going through the political pain for not enough gain. MPs ask Ministers to stand firm over changes to the  higher pensions in the public sector, and were surprised by the concessions already made.

             There is the ever present question of the EU. Most Conservative backbenchers favourite spending cut would be a big cut in the EU budget and the UK contribution. Ministers have been reluctant to press this too far. Backbenchers are also worried  by the demands to put more money into the IMF. If we are short of money at home, they reason, how come we have all this largesse to give to Euroland and the EU itself? Surely austerity should begin in Brussels, not in my local Council office? As the EU is currently preaching austerity to its members, couldn’t it lead by example and show us how to do it?

                It is hard yet to find examples the other way of backbenchers wanting more spent. Partly that is because we have so far had so few cuts, but partly it tells you the mood of the party. They get it. They understand the need to curb spending after a decade when it let rip. Most of us warned and steadied our electors for the cuts. Most of us want the cuts out of the way now, as our appetite for them may well dull nearer the election.

                      It is true some MPs  are concerned about the withdrawal of children related benefits planned soon. However, the worries do not amount to a full scale demand that the policy be cancelled, merely that the government looks again at some of the anomalies which leave the person on lower pay worse off than a couple on jointly higher pay, which seems unfair. Most MPs accept this is an area for savings, but want a different approach to how they are delivered. They would like to see the couple with one parent staying at home and the other higher rate tax payer not disadvantaged compared to the two earner couple with the bigger total income.

                        Many Conservatives think the defence budget has been cut too much, but there is no move to reinstate extra spending.  All this just goes to show that the party, far from in panic at the scale of the cuts is willing the government on to save the billions that are still being borrowed.

 

         The only area of public spending which was cut overall in the first two years of this government was capital projects. The Coalition inherited large forecast cuts in capital from Labour. They abated the cuts a bit, but carried on with the main thrust of them. It has been a bone of contention ever since. The construction industry is not happy. Business lobbies generally have complained about the poor state of our infrastructure. The public sector has made enquiries of Ministers to see if the cuts can be reduced more.

      The government has responded to the pressures. It has not merely found a bit more public money for capital. It has also spoken up about the need to finance more of these items in the private sector. It is working on a scheme to promote more direct pension fund investment in UK infrastructure. It has itself put a lot of political capital into promoting high speed rail, though these plans do not entail any construction work before 2017 for HS2.

        The truth is more privately financed infrastructure would be a good idea. The UK is short of capacity in energy, water, telecommunications, airports and roads. In each of these sectors more private investment is a distinct possibility. It would both act as an economic stimulus as the capital works were undertaken, and help UK competitiveness as better supplies at cheaper prices became available. So what more does the government need to do to bring these improvements about?

Energy:  The government is deeply involved in the sector through its comprehensive regulation, its pursuit of green objectives, its role in the planning process and its overall responsibility for keeping the lights on. It needs to encourage more cheaper energy provision by granting sufficient licences for gas power stations, for oil, gas and shale gas exploration and production, and by reducing subsidies to less economic methods of electricity generation. Progress is being made with securing the construction of new electricity capacity. Changes to licences and the tax regime could foster a more active exploration and development phase for hydrocarbon.

Water  The government and the Environment Agency regulate the water industry and take overall responsibility for ensuring water comes out of the taps. They could set new targets for availability and reserves, and foster the construction of additional reservoir capacity, additional stand by desalination plant if needed, better pipe networks so less is lost in transmission, and explore whether more can be done to transport water between water basins.

Telecommunications. The government is embarked on supporting the main telecoms companeies to ensure good broadband coverage for most people, with faster line speeds and better capacity.

Airports   The government’s veto on new capacity at Heathrow is proving unpopular with business lobbies and growth promoters. Various schemes are being examined for additional runway capacity. An early and relatively quick way of expanding capacity would be to divert Northolt to civil use, whilst considering which longer term option to adopt.

Roads I will not repeat my ever popular private roads full scheme! The government could allow some private toll roads to add new capacity.

 

 

 

 

      The Euro crisis has been postponed. The Euro area has now adopted the very popular approach in the modern west of simply printing more cash to see them over a rough patch. The European Central Bank’s decision to lend more than half a trillion euros to Euro area banks, for 3 years at 1%, was the nearest thing to a free gift to the banks they thought they could get away with.

          In the short term it has worked. Very weak banks now look stronger, because they can now get their immediate cash needs direct from the ECB. They are not so beholden to the markets, who were getting prickly about which banks to lend to, how much to lend, and what price to charge. Some banks are using extra cash borrowed cheaply from the ECB to buy into the sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain. They can then pocket the difference between the 4-7% yield they pick up on the bond, and the 1% they pay for the money. It’s a great idea all the time they do not lose on the capital value of the bond. As banks buy more of these bonds, so it gets a bit cheaper for the governments to borrow, easing the pressures on them. It’s an indirect way of doing what the US and UK did directly – simply buying up their own debt to make it cheap.

          In the UK the main effect of quantitative easing has been to keep government borrowing rates very low, allowing the government to go on spending way more than it raises in taxes. The government via the Bank of England now owns more than one quarter of all the government debt in issue. It has bought up enough to keep government borrowing rates on the floor, and to allow nervous foreign holders of the debt to sell out and move away. The authorities had hoped it would result in easier credit throughout the economy, but that was never likely. The commercial banks are still constrained by the regulators, so the cheap liquidity circulates mainly within the government sector. The private sector faces credit shortage and relatively dear loans. The UK looks likely to do more of this. There are various stories in the press saying that the Bank will do some more once it has completed its second programme of £75 billion. This means that for most of this year we can expect low government borrowing rates, and continued high levels of government borrowing.

        In the US the authorities have so far avoided another round of quantitative easing. Instead they are currently trying to lower longer term rates by selling shorter term debt and buying longer term debt within the large total of QE already established. The US is doing more to cut its deficit than the UK judging by recent figures. According to spin doctors on both sides of the Atlantic the opposite is the case. One respected institution in the UK has now confirmed that we have had very few cuts inUK government  spending so far – total current spending of course is well up on two years ago – whilst the latest figures in the USA do show declines.

      Does all this money printing matter? Why didn’t people do it before, if the authorites have found a painless way of paying for all that excess public spending? In the past advanced and disciplined countries have avoided money printing on a large scale, believing it to be inflationary. If an economy is operating at capacity and you print and circulate a lot of extra money, the main effect should be an increase in the price level. You have too much money chasing too few goods.

        The authorities today in Euroland and the UK believe there is spare capacity. They therefore hope that printing more money will mainly go into calling more of the unused resources into use, creating a free lunch effect from printing more cash. Unfortunately, if the new cash is all spent within the public sector, and entails facilitating the build up of yet more public debt, it just defers the crisis until the state has to repay that debt, or until the markets panic at the size of the extra debt.

       In Euroland it is clearest. The markets have already taken fright at the size of the public debts in Greece and Portugal. They were beginning to take fright at the scale of the Italian and Spanish public debts. Printing money has not solved the Greek and Portuguese problem, but it has temporarily eased the market’s view of the Italian and Spanish problems. The authorities would be wrong to think this is a permanent fix. If Italy and Spain use the time  well that the extra money has purchased, to cut their deficits and make their debts more manageable, it will work. If they carry on as before, thinking they can build up even higher levels of debt, at some point the markets will do to them what they are doing to Portugal.

       In the US and UK the authorities have other options.  Printing lots of money can lower  the value of the currency, helping competitiveness and cutting living standards by stealth. There is no need or likelihood of US or UK default, because the authorities can simply print the money to repay the old debts if all else fails. If they get to that point it will then prove inflationary. In the meantime the UK has bought itself some time. Inflation is falling for the time being despite the QE. It would however, be unwise to think that a country can adopt a new permanent model of paying for public spending by printing the cash. If you do it for too long there will be a day of reckoning.

 

Yesterday Tim Montgomerie wrote a depressing piece on Conservative Home, reporting the views of Number 10 stating that Conservative victory in the 2015 election would be difficult if not impossible, and that a further period of Coalition with the Lib Dems might be the best outcome. This pessimism was based on the inability of Conservatives to win more than 36% of the vote in the last four elections, and the absence of a way of  “transforming the brand” in time for a knock out offer at the next election.

Let us assume Mr Montgomerie did his research well. I have no doubt that the issues raised by Number 10 are serious ones which Conservatives need to address. He mentioned two in particular which do matter a lot. He reported that there are worries the health changes could upset more electors. He quoted a Lib Dem source as saying that Conservative Ministers are not engaged in tackling one of the great evils of our time, unemployment.

I disagree with his statement that there are no people within the Conservative party expressing an alternative which could make a difference for the country, and in due course for Conservative electoral prospects. He is right that there is no figure on the right acting as a challenger or alternative to David Cameron. That is a deliberate choice by some figures on the so called right. They do not wish to be factional, to create an impression of personality based splits. They do not wish to divert the government from its crucial national task of economic recovery and public budget improvement.It is an irony that this is taken by some on the inside as a welcome weakness, rather than as a wise and helpful assistance to a government facing a very difficult set of challenges.

There are a wide range of attractive policies proposed by a range of Conservative backbenchers that could make an appreciable difference to the future of the coutnry, and could boost Conservative poll ratings. Many Conservative MPs do not share the pessimisim about prospects. After all, they argue, the polls were boosted rapidly by using the veto on the EU last December, and were boosted again by the benefits cap policy in January.

There are many ideas bubbling out of the talented 2010 intake on new Conservative MPs, as well as ideas coming from more experienced Parliamentarians. Most Conservatives would like to break the state banks up and get them powering a stronger recovery. Tough action to make the banks work better polls well. Many Conservatives would like a revolution in the energy department, so the UK could offer cheap energy to fuel industrial recovery as well as helping hard pressed household budgets. Polling suggest cheaper energy would be very popular, would relieve the squeeze on incomes  and could be delivered by  market solutions with private sector  investment money.

Many Conservatives want power back from Brussels, as promised in the last Conservative manifesto. Making moves to start to do that would be popular, as the country is now far more Eurosceptic than its Parliament. Tax cuts are always popular. Conservative Ministers should not let Lib Dems pose as the tax cutters, demanding a higher income tax threshold, when Conservatives are yearning for a tax break of any kind and would happily settle for higher thresholds.

Many Conservatives want a Freedom Bill, to reduce bureaucracy to liberate  enterprise to get on with creating more jobs. They want better control of our borders, so more of the jobs go to people already settled here, and want sensible welfare reforms to make it more worthwhile to work. Far from being uncaring about unemployment and people’s prospects for higher incomes, most Conservative MPs I know would list that as one of the most central tasks they wish to promote. In many cases they would say it is the overriding task. When asked about the government,  they are proudest so far of the welfare reforms being carried through.

Conservative MPs wish Andrew Lansley well with the health reforms. They were unhappy about the way the Lib Dems forced a pause and then changes in them.  Mr Clegg had after all  signed up to the whole package and  signed a ringing   recommendation of them in the original White Paper. Conservatives have no difficulty with giving more power to Doctors to make choices for their patients. They are becoming more nervous about the bureaucratic changes being forced on the government by Lib Dem and special interest pleading. It would be wrong to think the health reforms were some incubus designed by the Conservative right. Most Conservative MPs are entirely pragamatic about the reforms, wish them well, and do not wish them to do any damage (nor do they do any damage by design). All Conservative MPs I know are wedded  to the funadamental popular principle of the NHS, free at the point of need. The government did not embark on these reforms to placate the “right”.

All Conservative MPs recognise that the next budget is a crucial event for Conservative and government fortunes. This is the last budget that allows three years to see the beneficial consequences of any of its proposals, and still allows a decent length of time to undertake reform and get it to settle down before the General Election. The budget needs to set the course for faster growth – and therefore for a lower budget deficit – for the rest of the Parliament. The best way to get the deficit down is to promote faster growth and generate many more jobs. If the government does this, the Conservatives could be rewarded with a majority next time. There is no substitute for fixing the roof now it’s raining. I will return to more detailed Budget measures in the days ahead.

I can fully understand the frustrations many feel about the turn of events in the EU.

Many Eurosceptics thought that once a new Treaty proposal came along, all the UK Prime Minister had to do was to table a series of amendments and opt outs for the UK so we could loosen our relationship, as our price for signing up to let the others move forwards to yet more closer union. After all, they argued, the previous Conservative governemnts had managed to negotiate effective opt outs from the social chapter, the common borders, the criminal justice provisions and the single currency. Labour has now given most of those away, and most Conservatives want to get control back over vital matters like borders, criminal justice and the economy.

The proposal for a new Treaty came along quicker than the government had expected. Mr Cameron asked for less in exchange for UK consent to the others going ahead with more integration than I would have wanted, but had even his modest demands turned down before Christmas. He rightly decided to veto the EU draft Treaty, and renewed that veto this week.

Instead of bringing the rest of the EU round to offering the UK a better deal, it led directly to their decision to create an inter governmental Treaty between up to 25 states. The unresolved issue between Mr Cameron and some of his Eurosceptic critics, is could the UK find a way which works to stop the 25 (or however many finallly sign up if they do) from using EU institutions to develop and enforce their enhanced co-operation in these budget and economic matters? Some think he could. He himself says he will watch it vigilantly and take legal action if need arises.

He clearly cannot see an easy way to stop them using the EU facilities as they choose. Ultimately for the other members these issues anyway will be settled by the European Court of Justice, a federalist court. Labour signed the UK up to Treaties which introduced “enhanced co-operation” and special treatment for Euro members enforced by the EU institutions, undermining the UK position.

So what are the other options from here? The UK could hold a referendum on continued membership, and on the terms of membership, preparatory to seeking a renegotiated settlement or exit if that is the wish of the electors. The UK government could notify its EU partners of its intention to hold a referendum and seek negotations of a better deal to put to the UK electors prior to a referendum. Both these routes have been firmly ruled out by a decisive Parliamentary vote against a referendum when we recently engineered a motion and vote, thanks to the overwhelming wish of Labour and Lib Dem MPs to back Coalition Ministers.

The UK could make proposals for piecemeal repatriation of powers that have some cross party support. The idea of repatriating a third of the EU budget by opting for national control of regional and structural funds described here recently might attract such support. If it did so the government would have to take it up in the EU. Proposals this week that have come from Parliamentary sources to repatriate the lost criminal justice powers would probably attract less cross party support.

The government could take the advice some of us are offering them about the need to play tough on the issue of the use of the court and other institutions to enforce the Treaty of the 25. If the EU intends to use its legal and institutional architecture against us in pursuit of a Treaty of 25, the Uk could counter by legislating in the UK to modify our adherence to EU law in a way which offset or compensated us for the extra legal reach the 25 were asserting. There are all sorts of legal arguments about whether the UK could or should undertake unilateral legal action. Some of us think it is the obvious answer to moves by other EU states to circumvent EU agreement by having a Treaty amongst a lesser number of states, yet continuing to use EU legal process.

I understand many of you just want to leave the EU. As I need to remind you, very few UK voters vote for that view in UK General Elections, so none of the 3 main parties has it as a policy, and the Lib Dems and Labour make a virture out of being federalist parties. This means that it is not about to happen. If this Parliament will not vote for a referendum, it is certainly not going to vote to leave the EU.

That is why come out Eurosceptics have to unite with moderate Eurosceptics to try to reverse the tide of powers flowing to the EU, and to get us a looser relationship. As the last week has shown, even that is going to be very difficult. It is, however, important that for the first time the rest of EU has demanded a Treaty and the UK has refused to sign it in any form. All previous Prime Ministers have signed up to all proposed Treaties, some willingly, some after opting the UK out of important bits. We have to work with the Euroscepticism that there is in Parliament, as whatever Eurosceptics in the country want, it all hinges on Commons votes. People in the country who are very frustrated by the never ending march of EU power can help and can make their voices heard. They need to lobby all those MPs who do not vote in the Commons for less EU control of our lives, or for a new relationship for the Uk with the continental powers.

 

            It was typical of Mr Miliband that he used a good phrase out of time and when it was not true. Mr Cameron used the veto , refusing a UK signature on the proposed new Treaty before Christmas, and then renewed the same veto this week. He has made it crystal clear that the UK will not sign the proposed Treaty, will not surrender more powers, will not submit its budgets to Euro style controls. I for one am relieved Mr Cameron was doing the negotiating rather than the Labour leader. Labour in office gave away huge powers at Nice, Amsterdam and Lisbon.

             Some smell treachery nonetheless, saying that Mr Cameron should also have made sure the European Court of Justice  will not adjudicate in matters arising from the Treaty of the 25 proposed this week. Labour, of course, negotiated the UK into an arrangement under the existing Treaties where the Euro area requirements of the 17 are under the ECJ and serviced by the EU, even though 10 other states are not members. They allowed the idea of “enhanced co-operation” to become established. This means they do already have Treaty powers to run a club within the club.

                I and my colleagues have no wish to see  new powers gained by the ECJ as a result of a Treaty of the 25. We have been told by Mr Cameron that he has placed a veto on any new ECJ powers over the UK, and would resort to legal challenge if the UK felt the ECJ was acting incorrectly  in pursuit of a non EU Treaty by the 25. Many of us will be watching progress on just this.

               Some of us will also be very surprised if this Treaty comes to pass in anything like its current form. It will presumably need the referendum approval of the Irish and maybe others. The front runner for French President says he wants to scrap the current version and wants fundamental revision. Other countries are keeping a low profile but may have ratification problems ahead if it comes to that. The Czechs have jumped ship since Christmas.

                        This one will run and run. It is good that the UK has consistently placed a veto on any of this applying to us. The UK now needs to play its hand well over any extension of ECJ power over other members.

 

 

          Defra has recently published a large amount of material on climate change. It needed to do so under the last government’s  legislation, to produce a “risk assessment”. I went along to hear about it from the Chief Scientist and Secretary of State, and have read more about it on their website.

          The fascinating thing is how uncertain the scientists are about their predictions. By the 2080s they forecast an increase in temperature in the UK of somewhere between 1 degree and 8 degrees.  They think summer rainfall may have increased a bit, or may have fallen sharply. They think winter rainfall may have stayed the same, or may go up a lot.

            They are not even sure what is happening to emissions of carbon dioxide. They say “It is too early to establish whether actual emissions are pursuing any particular emissions scenario”.

               Their historical graphs show that there was no warming between 1860 and 1970 overall.  This was despite a very intensive coal burning phase to global industrialisation. There was a warming pattern between 1920 and 1940, but cooling ones from  1900 to 1920 and from 1940 to 1970.  They then extrapolate warming since 1970 and project more to come.

               Their resulting risk assessments conclude that we will spared a substantial number of deaths from the cold in winter, which will far exceed the extra deaths from heat in summer. They reckon there will be more extreme weather, overheating of some buildings, and greater water scarcity. When I asked wasn’t it good news that fewer people will die of cold in the winter, I was told that global warming does have some good effects.

                My view is we will be short of water because the population growth is outpacing new water provision. It would be a good idea to put in some more capacity. I also suspect there will be more flooding, largely because there has been too much development on floodplain. It would be a good idea to improve drainage and strengthen flood defences where there are large settlements. This morning on the radio a Minister assured us they would seek to do that.

                 Defra’s risk assessment needs to concentrate on the here and now and the eminently forecastable. We do need more  water and we do need to protect ourselves from floods. Let’s just get on with it.

 

            Mr Hester decided to waive his bonus when he heard there would be a Commons vote on it. Labour who had signed such a generous contract in the first place decided to table a debate and vote  in Opposition time to condemn it to make amends for their original deal. Many Conservatives and Lib Dems would have voted with them. 

             The truth is the Board of RBS was set the wrong task and given the wrong remuneration for doing it when the bank was stupidly nationalised in the first place.

              Will this government now call them in and change the requirements? They should be instructed to split the bank up, creating new functioning smaller High Street banks which can be immediately floated off into the private sector, where they need to raise more capital to allow them to lend more to power an economic recovery. The sooner the government does this, the sooner its economic policy will function better. If the current Board does not want to do this, then there are plenty of able people who would happily go in and do it for them, for less pay.

 

          Mr Osborne’s rhetoric on using the IMF to prop the Euro has firmed up more. He has always said the IMF should not lend money to prop up a currency, only a country in trouble. I interpret this to mean the IMF should not lend to any Euro member, as that would in my view be lending to prop a currency. Mr Osborne may define it less severely.

            Now Mr Osborne is saying the UK should not make more money available to the IMF to lend to Euro members, unless and until France and Germany have made a larger contribution. He seems to have in mind those states putting more money into the European bail out fund. This is extremely unlikely. Germany thinks the problem countries should do more to rein in  their own deficits. France is becoming financially strained herself and is not looking for more ways to spend money. That would seem to mean no more UK money for these purposes, which would be excellent news.

           However, whilst there is still argument over IMF funds for Europe  and Big Bazooka bail out funds within the Euro area, it looks as if for the time being the European Central Bank has issued enough new money to commercial banks to delay the crisis. Italian and Spanish bond yields have fallen. The European banks have gorged on 3 year money at 1% interest rates. We are told in a few weeks time they will be able to take some more from the bountiful Central Bank.

          I am surprised the Germans have taken this so well. They have in the past fought against the ECB buying up government bonds itself. They wrote in the clause that prohibits the Bank lending directly to governments. So now the Central Bank has found a way round these restrictions,  by lending large sums to commercial banks who in turn can hold or buy government bonds, lending to the governments.

          Why have they in the past argued against it? Because Germany’s own experience is bitter when they had too much inflation. They are most concerned that this type of direct monetary action, effectively printing more money at one remove, will be inflationary. I guess they are hoping that in the short term the weak state of the banks will stop them lending this on to others and in so doing bloating the money supply. The ECB needs to be on vigilant inflation and money growth watch from here. It has pumped a lot into the system. It needs to see whether that finds its way into uses that allow banks to gear up and go on a lending spree. If it does, then watch out for inflation. If they are lucky, the broken state of the banks will stop too much inflation for now, whilst preventing collapse in the Italian markets.

                  Meanwhile, back in the real world, politicans in Euroland should be in panic about the high level of youth unemployment and of general unemployment. Now youth unemployment has gone above 50% in Spain and above 40% in Greece, they should ask themselves why they are so much in love with the currency scheme which has helped to bring about such a crisis.