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My IEA article on road nationalisation

There is one nationalised industry that most people support. They often  do not see its failings. Indeed, most do not think of it as a nationalised industry. Most think it as a natural monopoly. Most protect it because it is provided “free” at the point of use. I am talking about roads.
The truth is like many nationalised industries state run roads let us down and cost us a fortune. The state provides too little capacity and makes using the roads  difficult. It is run as a monopoly with rationing, and with an ever increasing array of rules enforced by fines and other penalties. Far from being free to users, drivers are fleeced in so many ways.  Drivers are made to pay an annual fee for keeping a vehicle. They pay 55% of their fuel costs in tax, with VAT even charged on the fuel duty itself. They pay high VAT and tax on buying new vehicles. They have to pay heavy parking charges for parking in publicly owned car parks and on sections of the highway, tolls on some bridges, and congestion charges in some urban areas. Some have to pay high fees for residents parking.
This contrasts with nationalised rail where fares are VAT exempt, diesel for trains attracts a very low duty rate and there are no special charges for keeping or buying a train.
Worse still  is the state of the roads. The main motorways and A roads, usually dualled, that take the bulk of the traffic are run by the national government through the Highways Agency. There has been no attempt to complete a proper network serving the main cities, ports, airports and train stations. There is still no south coast motorway. There is no fully dualled A 303 road to the south west. There is too little  capacity across the Pennines, inadequate  roads to Felixstowe and Dover, two of our busiest ports and no main highway between Oxford and Cambridge to top the golden triangle ear marked for more homes and business investment.  There are many other regional gaps and uncompleted main routes. The state has usually adopted a string of beads approach, dualling individual by passes along a main highway  but not dualling the whole. The Highways Agency seems to be run by people who want to ration our access to roadspace, rather than  by a growth driven organisation that wishes to expand to meet the obvious existing and growing demand.
Road management often leaves much to be desired as well. Potholes and poor surfaces are becoming a problem even on these national highways. There is endless tinkering with them overnight with clumsy lane and whole road closures disrupting journeys and driving trucks onto smaller roads. The policy to convert some safety lanes into additional running lane capacity had its critics which led to expensive and complex initial works being followed by more cost and disruptive remedial works. The advent of so called smart motorways gives them powers to intervene over lanes closures and speeds which are not always judged well.
The state did build one of the most vital pieces of twentieth century infrastructure when it completed the M 25. Without this the UK economy would be throttled by having to route too many goods and people through London with its medieval street plan and hostile Councils. The road was so successful that soon its critics switched from claiming it was not needed to claiming it had become a large car park from congestion. Subsequent attempts to widen it were always too little too late. The expansion has also led to intrusive works delaying traffic over a period of  many months. The failure to put in wide enough bridges initially left no room for expansion without expensive replacement of  bridges.
A similar attempt to provide a ringway around Birmingham also produced a good road that was too small. There government allowed an experiment with the provision of additional private sector roadspace. The M6 toll road has provided much needed extra capacity at no cost to the taxpayer. Those  who want the certainty of no congestion or no delays pay for the toll road, freeing more of the space on the nationalised alternative for those who do not want to pay or cannot afford to. It’s a win win for payers and users of the free system.
When I produced a report for the incoming Cameron government on economic policy with Simon Wolfson of Next we argued that we needed to go over to private capital for roads to tackle the scarcity and poor performance. We suggested selling  long leases of the main roads for around £100 bn to companies that would improve and manage them and expand them, collecting toll revenues which would be subject to regulation. This money would be used to cut the state debt, cutting the interest bill by enough to abolish Vehicle Excise Duty. The tolls were to be set so that on average no-one was worse or better off from the tolls versus the cancelled VED. The scheme would have been mildly redistributional from richer to poorer as lower income people tend to drive fewer miles. Drivers could also  always divert from the national highways to the free local roads if they wished. I understand why George Osborne rejected this as too difficult, as polling said people would oppose it , believing they would end up paying more. I did not pursue the idea further and am not recommending it today.
This leaves the Birmingham model as the obvious hybrid to adopt. Letting the private sector build new relief roads is a win win, freeing road space on so called free roads whilst offering those in a hurry or wanting a better service the option of paying for it. Every time I have used the M6 Toll it has been free flowing, with a good quality of service and easy payment technology. The services are also good and not under the same pressure as the often crowded and sparse service areas on the free network. The free network decided to strictly limit service areas giving them strong monopoly like positions.
The government could draw up a list of motorways and main A roads where a relief road or a new route is needed. The government would need to offer planning permission for the construction to companies bidding to be granted the rights. The government could offer a long lease with future reversion, or the freehold. They could  set criteria and requirements on the private contractors bidding, and award to the one in each case that offered the best package.
This government is cutting back on the scarcely adequate new roads programme it inherited. The public and business votes with its vehicles, choosing 59% of all trips by car and just 2% by train. Rail freight’s market share has fallen a long way under BR and now Network Rail. Gone are the days of more sidings in industrial plants and branch lines into business estates. Today new business parks are located near motorways and trunk roads. The railway likes trainload quantities which few producers can now manage. To take a bigger share of freight as many would like it needs more active marketing of single wagon marshalling with new branch lines into leading business centres. In the meantime more truck fleets take to the roads, hammering the surfaces with their high axle weights.
If the government cannot  bring itself to allow some private capital to top up and improve our road network it needs to find the borrowings to put in more highway. You cannot have a growing economy without more transport capacity. The government has put a target for growth of railfreight into its nationalisation plans, but so far has not produced any supporting material to show how it will identify new customers and pick up their loads, let alone deliver them to their end destination. The truth is roads go everywhere in the UK and rail only go to a limited number of places with stations. The marketing , service arrangements and pricing still favour the truck door to door over the train for part of the journey.
When it comes to passengers too  few people live close to a  rail station or wish to go to a destination close to a station. Most so called rail journeys include two car/taxi/bus journeys as well as a train ride. You do not go shopping by train for the weekly groceries. You cannot usually take the children to school by train outside London. Most households with two workers need two cars to get each to work, usually travelling in different directions. To get growth in business and to help people do their jobs we need better roads with more capacity. That starts with the national network.  The debate should be about how to raise  the money and how to pay for it.

The abolition of a department

I am willing to give one cheer for the disappearance of a whole government department, the Science, Innovation and Technology department. I would give more cheers if I thought things would be better and overheads were lower from the  changes. I  will be surprised if they do slim government as a result, as I suspect there will be the rebuilding of what it does and who does it through a complex redistribution of tasks and posts. The expanding Business department will be the main “winner”, gaining staff and work. Some activities will pass to DCMS.

The critics of the move claim this will mean less representation for science and technology in decision making. The supporters say all departments need to be alert to scientific and technology threats and opportunities. The government Scientists already operate across government depending on need, from the Government Office of Science.   There will be a Minister for AI in the Cabinet Office.

The danger of these reorganisations is they incur substantial costs and divert energies away from the subject itself to the complications of the Whitehall power structures  and musical chairs. It is difficult to point to what the outgoing Department has achieved. I asked recently that the Lords Minister set out what benefits we are getting from the government’s £3bn programme of introducing AI to its own processes, and what greater staff efficiencies it would generate. It was a friendly question giving the Minister the chance to explain how they were spending this large sum and what good it was doing. There was no reply, so presumably there was no briefing. The suspiciously round sums of the original announcement of AI money without precise programmes was always a concern. I thought now they were well into spending it they could tell us on what and how we will gain.Their inability to do so invites more questions about how this cash is splashed.

This  change in the architecture of government to handle the most exciting scientific and technological developments now underway goes unexplained. It would be good to see what the plan for transfer is, how much it will cost and who will control it. I doubt they have worked all that out. Officials  look for promotions or for a better deal and politicians lazily dismiss a whole department whilst wanting its work to live on elsewhere.Costs go up. No one is responsible for controlling them.  In business if you scrap a department it is usually to take out cost and reduce functions. Government works by different rules which usually ensure reorganisation brings more staff and more cost. AI too in the public sector may do the same, impeding not advancing labour productivity.

 

Instead of planning more spending the PM needs to unleash more growth

The PM wants to spend more. He cannot afford that. He needs to start by helping the country earn more. Increasing the number and rates of taxes in this situation will damage growth and depress revenues. Removing bans, self defeating tax rates and excessive regulation could boost growth and bring in more tax receipts.

1. Lift the ban on exploring for new oil and gas offshore and onshore. Tax revenue will flow from the exploration work and jobs created.

2. Licence Rosebank and Jackdaw fields.Immediate big tax boost as their production kicks in.

3. Allow new onshore gas away from settlements and with royalties for local property owners. Plenty of potential new tax revenue.

4. Abolish carbon taxes and emissions trading to save high energy using industries. There has been a catastrophic rate of closures of oil refineries, ceramics factories, steel plant, petrochemical works,sugar beet,fibreglass, glass and other high energy users in the last two years. Pay for this by cancelling carbon capture and storage expenditures. Saving businesses keeps tax revenue on their jobs and activities which we still need.

5. Lift the progressive ban on new diesel and petrol car making which is destroying the car industry.

6.Remove the new 50% steel tariff which is damaging steel using industries and putting up construction costs.

7.Switch farming grants to helping food growing away from environmental and solar panel  based hand outs

8. Cancel the disastrous give away of our fish to the EU and offer loans and grants to expand our fishing fleet, building  the boats  in the UK.

9. Cancel the tourist taxes and stop Councils buying investments in property and renewables with borrowed money

10. Exempt all small shops, leisure,pubs  and High Street businesses from business rates, paid for by cutting  money for anti vehicle road schemes which make it difficult for customers to use the roads to get to the shops and raise business costs.

The PM’s challenges My IEA piece this week

The PM is right to say people want him to tackle the problem of living standards. The cost of living has risen too far too fast, with the Starmer government presiding over another lurch upwards in inflation from the 2% they inherited. Energy costs are too high thanks to the UK policy of ultra dear energy with very high carbon and energy taxes. Rents and mortgages are too dear for many, thanks to a shortage of supply of homes and very high levels of migration in recent years creating so much more demand. Mortgages were driven up by rate rises needed to curb the covid and war  generated excess inflation, and then by a Labour government adding to UK public spending and borrowing.
The government’s cost of borrowing has been well above the one day worst Liz Truss spike in rates for the last year and a half. That is the cost of Labour overspending. The interest rate bill is now a major government headache, being far too high and rising too much with new borrowings and higher rates of interest.  If Mr Burnham just wants to add more to the debt he will burden taxpayers with ever large interest rate bills which have to take priority over the public services we need when it comes to allocating the money.
Mr Burnham has three theories of how to tackle the cost of living crisis. The first is to continue the policy of sell out to the EU in the mistaken belief this will generate more growth. The second is to create more regional Mayors and give them all more powers to promote growth and prosperity. The third is to continue the high spend policies of more benefit payments for more people, and more subsidies and cheap or free services for those on lower incomes. These three will fail to deliver more and better paid jobs which have to be the key to greater prosperity for the many.
Sell out in Europe will mean  larger financial payments by hard pressed UK taxpayers to the EU. In  return we will get a worse and much dearer student support scheme, we will have to accept a wide range of EU laws that will often impede our companies, and we will sign up to yet dearer energy by joining their emissions trading and carbon tax scheme. To round off the damage we have given away £6bn of our fish over 12 years short changing  our own fishing industry. We  will have to impose tariffs on imports from non EU sources through the carbon border tax they want to set. Their legal impositions may well interfere with our innovative food, agriculture and digital industries. Since Brexit these industries have been freer to innovate and to grow with new ideas.
The belief in the power of Mayors is at loggerheads with the PM’s wish to ensure prosperity spreads to every postcode. Trusting local government means local and regional differentiation. Some may succeed, some will surely fail. If you believe in devolution you accept the right of Wales to lag England as it has thanks to poorer policy choices and higher taxes. The PM will have to deal with the feeling in local government that those places with City region Mayors are going to get a better deal than all the rest, and with the obvious differences there will be in the  national treatment of Manchester compared to Essex.
Mr Burnham has never explained how City region Mayors can promote much faster growth as they do not determine interest rates, nor the main taxes and money and credit policies. These decisions  have such a dominant effect on whether private sector companies can expand or not. He seems to think all growth comes from higher public spending and borrowing, and sees the Mayors as agents of change by putting in new facilities themselves or grant aiding those who do. This ignores all those crucial goods and services from fuel to heating and from clothes to the family car that are supplied by the private sector who have to pay the taxes to support the Mayors. A few cheaper bus fares from more subsidy is not going to crack the cost of living crisis.
I am all in favour of generous benefit payments to those who through sickness or old age cannot afford the things they need for a decent life. I am not in favour of the current benefits system which puts far too many people of working age onto benefits with no requirement for them to look for work in a new culture of sicknotes for life. Now am I in favour of more and more concessions and free passes to people on benefits for nice to have  spending items to make it even more difficult for them to be better off in work.  The essence of a good benefits and tax  system is it looks after those who cannot fend for themselves but leaves  good incentives to everyone else to get a job.
The new PM says he wants to make savings on the benefits  bill by getting more people into work. Good idea but not a new one. That will require him to review how to make it more worthwhile to go to work and to review the conditions you need to meet to be on benefits. There are no short cuts or easy options to getting the benefits bill under control. Does he have the wish to understand the detail and the political toughness to push through what needs to be done to bring some reality to the out of control benefits bill?
His choice of ending rough sleeping as his first distinctive national policy shows the contradictions of his thinking. Finding accommodation for people and helping people to a better life than being on the streets are the responsibilities of local government. So is the PM going to take powers away from localities to roll out a national rough sleepers policy? Or is he going to find money for new specific grants for local government to do this better, and hope they will take up the money with the conditions? It is not clear how this will work. Meanwhile critics point out that after some welcome  initial success in Manchester as a Mayor with a rough sleeper policy, in recent years the problem has again got worse.
Warm words of hope and  communicating a sense that he does want people to be better off is fine. That will only work if these words  are true. That will require an altogether  more professional and thought through set of policies, backed up by proper control of borrowing and lower levels of taxation. So far there is no sign of either. We have government by PM soundbite and wish list. These now will collide with reality.

City Region Mayors will create division and fail to extend prosperity to every postcode.

It is best if a PM does not lie, does not set out unachievable aims and targets, and thinks through policies to ensure effectiveness and compatibility with what government is already doing. Yesterday’s Council in the North to get City region Mayors to jump start growth  is set to  fail.

Much of the country does not have City Mayors. There are none in the south outside London. How do these unrepresented areas compete? Why were they not invited to the Council in the North?

The City Mayors we do have already bid for funds and have more freedom over how to spend public money. There is no evidence this has speeded their  growth. We are told this will be different. Mayors will say what they need and national government will respond instead of national government offering cash and policy ideas for them to take up.  I doubt there will be much difference in practice.

We are told there will be a revolution in how much power is devolved. I bet there  will be no such thing. Today in the crucial area of planning and local plans central government rides roughshod over them when it wishes. There is no likelihood of Burnham allowing Mayors or Councils to set their  own housing targets or to determine if they  house illegal migrants .These are  crucial decisions where local people want change and influence over the  outcomes.

 

As they rummage  around  for a new tax to indulge Mayoral spending habits they settle on a tourist tax . So Mayors will tax your holiday and try to put you off a break or staycation in their places. Another upwards twist to the cost of living. Killjoy policies.

 

 

What will be the new PM’s foreign policy?

So far we have heard the new PM wants policy to be less pro Israel. He had a successful first conversation with President Trump, but many potential tensions remain in the US/UK relationship from the second half of the Starmer period. The President will expect the UK to deliver on higher defence spending so the UK can make a bigger contribution to policing sea lanes and protecting Western interests than the pathetic response to the Gulf war and the threats to Cyprus and our installations in the Gulf. He has strongly recommended getting more of our own oil and gas out, which would be in  the UK’s national interest and would strengthen western energy security a bit. I doubt Mr Burnham will have the will and the skill to achieve much in shifting policy away from the self harming accelerated close down policy of Mr Miliband.

He also has the problem that Mr Miliband at the Foreign Office will be encouraging more international agreements and better policing of our current obligations under the UN climate change mantra. The President will want a more  positive response to his war with Iran which would be difficult for any UK PM. The UK wants the war over but does not want to contribute to it militarily and did not propose it in the first place. The best that can be done is to develop our maritime role to help clear mines to restore more shipping routes.We do of course need to allow the US to use its bases, otherwise they could pull out of supporting our defences. That comes with its own risks.

Policy towards the EU will continue to be craven surrender. The new PM is  as desperate to have a deal and a big publicity driven summit as his predecessor. There will be a big price to be paid for warmer words from the EU. Their plan is clear. They want the UK to assume more and more of the laws, taxes and responsibilities of their single market, which has  always been a whole government scheme, not a free market. The EU will charge us for “more access” to the single market where we already have a tariff free trade agreement, which will in  practice mean rules that are more likely to favour their companies than ours. The UK negotiators always forget we are mainly the customer  of the single market, not the supplier, as our imports of goods so greatly exceed our exports. I have set out before what a dreadful deal Erasmus is for our students and taxpayers, and I strongly oppose the sell out of our fishing industry yet again.

The immediate challenge should be to get rid of the latest Trump tariffs. With Ed Miliband as Foreign Secretary this is more difficult, given his anti Trump views and his policy of importing so many cheap solar panels from China. When will Ed Miliband talk about labour practices in China’s solar panel supply?

Some friendly advice to Mr Burnham. Recall the Commons

There are three good reasons why government should first present new spending plans, new taxes and new laws to the Commons.

The first is the discipline of preparing a policy and thinking through how it will work makes for better and longer lasting proposals. Ministers need to draft a statement which answers the How, the Why, the How much and how it fits in with existing government actions. Policy on the hoof to please  crowds and respond to opinion polls can easily fall apart, leading  government to U turns and ridicule.

The second is the announcement to Parliament and the public conversation Parliament supplies serves to inform the public. It gives the government a platform to explain it to the public and to make its case of why it is a good idea and how it will affect people.A casual reply to an interview or a planted story  does not have the same credibility or force . Limiting  which media outlet gets the news item on a favouritism basis limits coverage elsewhere or encourages the rest of the media to be critical. Announcements to Parliament  can be covered by all media.

The third is that in a democracy we welcome the ability of MPs to be critical of government to spur them on to perform better or to explain themselves better. People who disagree with government’s aims or general strategy deserve a voice to put forward an alternative for debate. More importantly for government MPs of all parties may make a constructively critical contribution leading to improvement and amendment of the government’s initial version whilst keeping the aim.

So please Mr Burnham do yourself a favour by recalling  the Commons and making proper announcements, thought through that add up. Doing it with a crowd pleaser a day and a U turn on the morrow is sloppy. It damages confidence in government and in the markets. U turns before  you have landed a single proposal will drain your authority.

 

Do not borrow so much

One of the worst features of the government situation is the colossal and  fast growing debt interest costs. Now over £100 bn a year, this is hard earned taxpayer money that buys us nothing we want. It has leapt up both because this government has continued the bad ways of the covid period and borrowed so much more money, and because the UK now has to pay a higher interest rates than most advanced countries because it is not controlling its public finances properly. As Mr Burnham took over the cost of the UK state  borrowing for ten years went over 5%, compared to the one day only spiked rate of 4.s8% under Liz Truss which Labour so roundly condemned. The Truss government never borrowed at anything like that rate. This government is regularly borrowing at rates around 5%. This too is a growing burden, as the low interest rate debts of the 2010-23 period come up for renewal that then means a big increase in the debt interest.

So what does the government have to do? It has to cut spending and borrowing this year and next. It has to do so in a credible way. That gives triple relief. It means less new debt. It means a lower interest rate for the new borrowings. It means a lower rollover rate for the old borrowings that need replacing. It is quite easy to find spending to cut. They could start with carbon capture and storage and the excessive net zero subsidies. They have announced some cut back in the digital ID work, though One Government ID continues. The Opposition has set out a substantial programme of benefit cuts and has offered support in the Commons to get it through. They could open up oil and gas development, bringing substantial new tax revenues to the UK instead of exporting the tax to the overseas supplying countries.

Chaotic reshuffle makes things worse

Keeping senior Ministers waiting for hours before the PM tells then what job they will have wastes their time and alienates  them.

Asking them to perform near impossible tasks sets them up to fail. How can the new Chancellor find all the money he needs to keep his own promises on defence spending?How can Angela Rayner get anywhere near hitting the target to build 1.5 m homes in five years when the first two have gone so badly? How will continuing the sell out to the EU achieve anything other than more costs and less benefit to the UK? How will keeping our own oil and gas in the ground undiscovered and paying high taxes to foreign governments to import oil and gas instead help us or save the planet? How will letting many more people get a sicknote for life on benefits help them or the economy?  When will they have a plan to stop the huge losses and grants  at nationalised Steel and the Post Office? How will they pay for more nationalisation?

The lack of a statement to the Commons and the refusal to let  MPs cross examine the PM is a  disgrace. The outgoing PM told us how well he did, so why did Labour MPs dump him? If they all think his economic policy worked the country is in for a bad time. If they now back yet more Reeves style tax rises and wasteful spending things will get worse.

We cannot afford more nationalisation

Nationalising water polls well. That just tells us the public is fed up with sewage discharges into our rivers, rationing when we want to water our gardens, and the recent large rises in our bills. I am as critical as any of the poor performance of some companies, the failure to spend enough on new and bigger pipes, more treatment works and more reservoirs.

I part company from the public mood over  the proposed solution. I remember the nationalised water industry before 1989. It gave us the name “ the dirty man of Europe” as EU rules and monitoring revealed just how much sewage discharged to rivers and to our beaches. The industry was regularly blocked from putting in new capacity and new reservoirs as every pound they spent counted as public spending which a hard pressed Treasury and over taxed voters could not afford. In the heat of 1976 some parts of the country had their mains water turned off because of a shortage, People had to queue in the street to fill a bucket from a standpipe.

Three things went wrong with privatisation. The government refused to allow competition on the specious argument that it is a natural monopoly as you only have one pipe into the home. We only have one gas pipe and one telecoms cable into the house, but  that did not stop competition. Without competition the industry has lacked innovation and more pressure to keep down prices.

The Regulator decided to stop companies spending more on expanding  capacity and replacing pipes in order to keep prices down. This in turn prevented good companies cleaning up their game and gave bad companies an excuse not to bother.

Successive governments then invited in very large numbers of new residents with proper though of how to provide all the extra pipes, treatment works and reservoirs they would need to have a good water service.

Nationalising will not solve any of these three problems. To solve the dirty and scarce water problems the government needs 1 to stop large net migration. 2. To introduce competition into water services 3. To instruct the Regulator to allow a major further uplift in investment programmes to speed up ending sewage discharge and water shortages .

Nationalising would require a large outlay of money on buying up the companies or on compensation for compulsory purchase. If the government confiscated the assets there would costly lawsuits and many investors would be put of off risking their money in the UK.