John Redwood's Diary
Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems. Promoted by John Redwood 152 Grosvenor Road SW1V 3JL

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My talk to Oxford Conservatives on nationalisation

I set out to a meeting organised by OUCA how in the 1970 s nationalised industries sacked many employees, put up prices and delivered poor service to customers, and cost taxpayers a fortune in losses, subsidies and investment spending.

I went on to  highlight the same bad patterns in our current nationalised industries.

The Post Office sacking and imprisoning good honest employees

HS2 costing us a fortune and failing to deliver any rail journeys on time or to budget

Steel absorbing large sums  to pay losses,probably ending in job losses and compensation to the Chinese.

It’s more a case of nationalised industries owning us and plundering our bank accounts, rather than us owning and benefitting from the nationalised industries. We used to own something called public dividend share in some of them but instead of paying us dividends they usually sent us big bills to pay their losses.

 

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EU and UK will not create a new variant single market

The Labour Manifesto was clear. The next Labour government would not put us back into the Single market, or into the Customs Union and open borders with freedom of movement.

We read that the UK government think they could create a new single market area of the EU and the UK. The EU as the larger party will say the way to do that is for the UK to join the EU ‘s single market. They will not allow changes of rules, or joint decision taking or opt outs. They would also demand a big UK budget contribution, freedom of movement and other EU controls over the UK. All this should be a non starter.

The government is mad to think accepting EU rules, taxes and charges would boost our trade. We import much more than we export to the EU, whereas our trade with non EU is much better balanced. Being closer to EU rules and taxes would be used by the EU to boost their sales to us by more than we could boost to them, reducing our net jobs, incomes and wealth. It is bad to want to sell out in this way, wrongly pretending it is not breaking a Manifesto promise .

What does the government  think we could sell more of? It is going to ban us selling petrol and diesel cars, new oil and gas, and make it dearer to sell high energy using products. These are all things we sold a lot of. It is giving away much of our fish, preventing expansion of our industry and more exports. We are fortunate indeed that the EU seems to have been wise and turned down this proposal.

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Steel nationalisation

The government’s Bill “ to nationalise steel” was designed as a Labour MP crowd pleaser. It always came with the strange lawyerly caveat that it only applied if in the public  interest. It now emerges that it thinks nationalisation is not currently in the public interest, so it is a Bill designed to disappoint all those left wing ideologues who want state ownership.

I assume this means the government is desperately trying to get a deal with the Chinese owners. This was always going to be difficult after the UK government unilaterally took over managing someone else’s business. The Chinese would be understandably cross about this, and would see it as an opportunity to demand compensation. It was a stupid thing for the UK to do, possibly leading  to the Chinese firm walking away from its responsibilities to the workforce and from the potential redundancy costs. Both the Chinese and the government thought the  future was to close the blast furnaces and put in an electric arc plant with far fewer people. Their disagreement was merely over when to close the existing blast furnaces. After this failed negotiation the UK government then implied to the employees it wants to keep the blast furnaces open, but presumably only for a bit whilst they get someone to put in an electric arc plant instead as in South Wales.

This looks like another unholy government mess. The employees probably end up sacked. The blast furnaces probably  will be shut down by this government. The Chinese will probably be given a load of taxpayer money to help pay their debts and losses. The taxpayer will definitely be sent huge bills. Maybe in the end they will claim it is at last fully nationalised. Then there will be a hunt to find a private sector partner to help manage to works and to put in a new electric arc investment.

This massive expensive state intervention looks set to fail. The powers in the Bill are wide ranging and apply both to taking over the shares in the company, and the property. They do include provision for compensation with an independent valuer.

 

The tasks of the House of Lords

I have now been in the Lords for four months. In that time I have asked 20 Oral Questions and made 11 speeches. I have set out a number of ways the government could run better public services, save money, increase tax revenues without raising tax rates or imposing new taxes and develop a Growth strategy that could work. Work has been regularly interrupted by the prorogation of Parliament and the various Bank holiday recesses.

I have been impressed by the detailed work the Lords does  examining Bills and suggesting improvements. There is a sprit of cross party working to find ways of improving legislation given the government’s aims. There  are efforts to  seek compromises where the government’s  policy is likely to damage or disadvantage large numbers of people and businesses. The Lords rightly does not seek to stop a Bill the government wants to fulfil a Manifesto promise, but can be more critical of legislation that cuts  across the government’s election promises. The Lords understands that power rests with the elected Commons, but asking them to think again can produce better results sometimes.

The Lords did do good work in exposing the dangers of giving away Chagos and giving so much money to Mauritius. This was clearly against a Manifesto promise to support our overseas territories. The delays mean this may well not now go ahead, given the changing view from the USA whose consent would b e needed under the US/UK Treaty establishing Diego Garcia as a joint base.  The Lords has helped the Commons Opposition point out the follies of closing down our own oil and gas industry, only to import oil and gas from abroad instead. The government announced some movement with its tie backs policy. The Opposition has set out why business has suffered from the two Labour budgets raising taxes and the imposition of new rules and regulations.It has worked with the government on issues like harms of children from too much social media.

My Conservative Home article on Steel nationalisation

The government is presiding over the collapse of the steel industry. It is one  of many casualties of its high energy prices and carbon taxes.  The traditional two last blast furnaces at Scunthorpe struggle with  dear fossil fuels and with high carbon taxes. The more modern electric arc furnaces elsewhere which the government prefers suffer from dear electricity. Are the government misleading the employees about the future of all their jobs given the absence of a realistic plan to run the blast furnaces as a long term proposition?
The government in a dramatic move legislated one Saturday a year ago to take management control of Chinese owned Scunthorpe, giving taxpayers the task of paying  the bills for the  heavy  losses to keep the plant operating. It was a bad unilateral decision made against the wishes of the owner, Jingye. The Chinese  had concluded there was no viable way of running the old blast furnaces and wanted to close them. Understandably the government wanted to save the jobs. Stupidly they gave up negotiating a solution with the owners and took it over without buying the plant and without agreement on  terms. They now face compensation claims for a near bankrupt works and two very old furnaces which they operate but do not own.
Civil service advice was more cautious pointing out the risks of taking it on.  The Secretary of State had to issue a direction to accept these liabilities. The Treasury was apprehensive about the possible scale of the financial commitment so they refused special funding . They  told the Business department to pay for it by cancelling other programmes or finding other savings in its budget. The government promised early resolution of the dispute with the owners and a business plan for the plant. No agreement and no realistic plan  has been forthcoming, one  year on.
The cruel irony of the  attempt  to save blast  furnace jobs  is the government had been offering  the Chinese a big grant to replace the blast  furnaces with a new electric  arc plant with far fewer jobs. This may still be  their plan, as blast  furnaces burning coal do not conform with government net zero targets. Electric arc technology is for steel recycling, so if we come to rely just on that the UK will have no capacity to make virgin steel. This will all  have to be imported from countries less queasy about using coal.
The National Audit Office has recently set out what  a financial disaster this has been to date. The losses are a staggering £1.3 m a day with an estimated total of £642 m by this June. If the government goes on like this at £500 m a year or more  it will gobble up most of what remains of the £2.5 bn set aside for  steel restructuring and modernisation over the next three years. It could charge nationalised British Rail more for the track it buys from the steel company, but that still sends the bill to taxpayers and would be  resisted by the Department of Transport paying the huge rail losses.
The subsidies to Scunthorpe buy no new plant and no improved Business Plan. Meanwhile Ministers will face more investigations about value for  money. The Scunthorpe  workforce  will be concerned that many could  still lose their jobs if  government  firms  up its old plans to replace these  furnaces with electric arc recycling capacity.
The proposed Bill in the King’s speech will be difficult to draft and agree.  Jingye want payment for their assets. The UK must argue these were ageing and heavily loss making. They came with a workforce the owners wanted to make redundant at considerable cost.  The past debts built  up by the owners should not  fall on taxpayers. Will the UK sustain this case? Will the Chinese come to accept it, or could they pursue a successful court action? This government seems to specialise in giving money to foreigners to try to buy their goodwill.
The current funding  of the company by the UK Treasury is technically a loan, but the company has no money to pay interest on it let  alone repay it. Ideally the government late in the day negotiates terms with the owner for the state takeover. If no sensible  terms are available  the government  could legislate to emforce  nationalisation on its terms. That sends a bad message to other foreign investors in the UK and to those  thinking of coming here. The Chinese state could raise legal and political objections to such conduct and could threaten retaliation against UK investments in China.
Ministers should  have thought of these dangerous financial and political  consequences before they blundered into paying bills at a business they do not own. Their officials are protected by not signing off the action and warning of the risks.
Labour is rarely happy  these days but it has cheered the idea of full nationalisation. Will they go on cheering as the bills mount, pre-empting other spending? Will they cheer compensation to China for a near bankrupt business? Will they cheer if the next plan requires closure  after all and replacement with electric arc? What will  Ministers do if more officials and auditors  say the spending did not offer value for money?
The government has already used a Brexit freedom to impose a savage 50% tariff or tax  on much more imported steel. This is a blow to steel using  businesses and construction in this country. It may force more  of those to close. Hanging over  all of this is dear energy, shutting down far too much UK industry.
Labour wants us to believe nationalisation is a superior way of running a business. This Scunthorpe scandal shows just how much taxpayers money you can lose and put at risk by not agreeing public control  with prior owners, and not having a realistic business plan. If the UK  ends up sacking most of the workforce with or without putting in another heavily subsidised electric arc furnace what was it all for? If there is a plan to run on with our own blast furnaces, where is the plan to modernise and re line them? When will we get good value fuel and taxes the industry  can afford to give it more of a chance of commercial success? Meanwhile how much damage will the high tariffs do to steel users also struggling to make a living?  This is no way to save a crucial industry. A state without its own primary steel making has weakened its own national security.
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The government needs to get serious about food and energy

The lack of resolution of the US Iran war and closure of the Straits of Hormuz is driving energy and food costs higher with shortage of fertiliser and major restrictions on movements of oil.

The government’s response of lifting sanctions on foreign refineries using Russian oil to make jet fuel and diesel show they are rattled, but once  again coming up with  the wrong response. They close our refineries and stop us getting our own oil and gas out of the ground when there is a world shortage. This  makes us more vulnerable.

They need to lift bans on new UK oil and gas, take down taxes on energy and help re open the two most recent refinery closures. Why do they always back imports and stop or overtax UK activity?

They are now asking supermarkets to freeze prices on 10 or 20 products out of the 30,000 they sell. What nonsense. It will not stop food inflation but will create shortages of the few selected. Do they not understand it is their National Insurance, their farm tax, their industrial closures, their energy taxes that are much of the problem of food prices?

 

High Speed 2 becomes Slow Speed 1

When Gordon Brown proposed the HS2 nationalised new railway line project it was to go from London to Birmingham and on to both Leeds and Manchester, creating a Y shaped new railway between major cities in England. It was to cost £37 bn and was to get the UK up with or ahead of Japan and France with their fast trains running on straight track between major cities.

Labour, Coalition, Conservative and now Labour governments have all wanted the project to work, and have all ended up cutting back the ambition in the face of runaway costs  and endless delays. Ministers rightly get the blame, but Ministers just asked senior managers and officials to do it better and cheaper and each time ended up with its considerably dearer and slower. Each enthusiastic Minister wanting to help deliver a success was faced with yet another list of undesirable cuts and options as they wrestled with the absurd and unacceptable budget overruns. The highly paid consultants and senior managers have some questions to answer.

HS2 has become a warning to all those who think a nationalised railway will be so much better. Here is a fully nationalised railway which has  had access to an effectively unlimited budget of subsidy and free money paid for by taxpayers. No one can tell us when anyone will be able to travel from Old Oak Common to Birmingham on it, let alone from Euston. All agree we will never travel to Manchester or Leeds on it as promised originally.

Some say it will now cost £100 bn to just do the Birmingham to Euston part of it that remains, three times original costings for well under half the railway. There needs to be much thinking by the government about how it has come to this. We need to see a new business case for what they now hope to deliver. We need a more demanding timetable for the completion to lower the extra time costs. Maybe the railway should end at Old Oak Common, as the costs to complete new track  into Euston will be large.

This is a most inauspicious start for an all nationalised railway. As they cut the speed it can attain it loses its original main selling point. It will increase capacity on a route which currently does not lack capacity, so getting any financial return now seems impossible. No wonder growth and productivity are so disappointing when a major project like this hits the buffers. This is the first railway massively delayed and part cancelled by too many twenty pound notes from taxpayers on the line.

My Express article on EU and Labour leadership

The current confusion over the leadership of Labour reminds me of the troubles that faced John Major. John Major’s blunt language telling his party to put up or shut up was his response to continuous briefing from undeclared people that the government would be much more successful if it were led by Michael Hesletine or Michael Portillo. Much newsprint was used running fantasy leadership elections in the names of the two favoured replacements, rather like Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting today.

I did not allow my name to be used against the PM, being loyal to him in public. In private I sought to get him to change policy away from  the dangerous path he was walking which was bound to end in electoral disaster.  When he resigned and challenged his critics the two Michaels would not put up , so I did. It was obvious on his course Conservatives  were doomed and the country was suffering. I said to the party, “No change, no chance.” They chose No chance and we duly went down to a crushing defeat, out of office for 13 years.
Both the present PM and his critics can learn from these events. The PM is in a way facing down his critics, but so far lacks the means to close it down promptly. John Major’s short contest did close it down, and I helped by standing down my supporters as soon as we lost. Keir Starmer’s  main critics are dragging out the agony and refusing to issue a challenge. The country is allowed to know several leading figures want the PM out, but not allowed to hear what their better plans are that might lift the country’s mood and start to tackle the big problems this government has created or made worse.
The PM has shown he is tone deaf and does not understand the mood of an angry people. Labour recently  polled especially badly in areas voting Leave in the EU referendum. So why does  he make his main idea for the future to cosy up to the EU, accept more of its laws, levies  and taxes whilst ignoring the clear Brexit mandate he said he understood to win the last election? In this John Major and Keir Starmer have a lot in common. Both sacrificed their popularity and risked  their job as PM for the sake of aligning more closely with the EU. John Major has gone to Keir’s aid in sympathy with his plight, understanding how unpopular a slavish pro EU policy that does not boost growth  can make you.
John Major as Chancellor forced us into a bad European scheme to control our currency which ended in catastrophic failure after he had become PM. He ignored those of us who warned him of the dangers, and ignored us again when we proposed quicker and better ways out of the disaster the EU had delivered.
Keir Starmer is doing a series of expensive and bad deals with the EU  with no support from the Opposition or from many former Labour voters. Far from boosting growth his re set will depress it further. Far from cutting our unacceptably high energy bills, entering the EU carbon tax and emissions trading scheme will increase energy costs more. Industrial recovery can only start with much cheaper energy, not dearer.
Far from helping more of our young people study abroad, Erasmus will limit them to EU universities only whilst spending far more of our tax money on paying for EU students to come here. Doing a deal to align our laws more closely with the EU threatens our trade deals with other parts of the world. It  is unlikely to grow our goods exports to the EU overall given the UK policies that are banning some of our key past exports of oil, gas, oil products and petrol cars.
Giving away so much of our fish for 12 years stops us rebuilding our fishing industry and attracting onshore investment in fish processing and food manufacturing. The planned Youth Opportunity scheme will mean many more people up to 30 years old coming here looking for work, housing and government support when too many of our own young people lack jobs and their own homes. Paying the EU money for these Agreements will add to our deficit and require more economy bashing tax rises.
It is strange how the long shadow of Europe makes some of our Prime Ministers do so many unpopular things to appease the bosses in Brussels. The Uk voted to take back control. Any PM who does not understand that, or who fails to use our independence to make us freer and more prosperous, faces endless challenges to their job and authority. The PM has broken his promises on growth, taxes and illegal migration. More EU will not reverse these mistakes and will not make him better loved by the millions of voters who have left him.
Hitching the UK to a low growth over taxed over regulated economic zone will bind us into continuing poor performance, when we have the opportunity to break free. The problem for the country is the possible replacements for Keir Starmer may be no better or may be worse.

Plea to Labour – have a debate about how a change of policy could promote the national interest and make you less unpopular

When is a coup not a coup? When will a Labour MP who wants a change of PM get 80 supporters and start the contest? If they are waiting for Andy, they may have a long wait if the voters of Makerfield say No.

Labour need to change course to win back voters. They are  holding a shoot out between four or five wannabes who come to it without  guns only to find it is delayed. What they need is  a proper debate about what changes of policy and approach  could do better for the country and could win back some lost support.

They keep on about how they need to change more, without seeing that most of the changes they have made so far are changes for the worse. The public who voted for them or who did not vote against them did not want higher taxes. They did not  want dearer energy. They did not want higher unemployment. They did not want young people to be priced and taxed out of jobs. They did not want our overseas territories to be given away. They did not want more inflation. They did not want more factories and plants closed by net zero zealotry.

The government was elected on three  reassuring main wide ranging  promises that it would achieve faster growth, it would not put up taxes (except Vat on school fees), and would smash the gangs (end illegal migration). It has broken all three promises . Its specific offer of £300 off fuel bills has also been illusory, and the promised  1.5 m new homes will not materialise.  Trying to deliver these should be the changes Ministers want to achieve. Running off to nationalise more industries, to regulate and tax more drivers off the road, to make life more difficult for landlords to cut the supply of rented homes, to regulate and tax small businesses and farms to death, to abolish juries and create monster regional governments will just make things worse. Any further lurch to the left will see Labour scrapping for under 20% of the vote against the extreme Greens.

You can see the government has lost the plot as they think they need to engage more strongly against Reform and copy more of the Green agenda. These are the thoughts of a struggling minority party, not the thoughts of a government with a  majority. Their duty should be to govern better. That means reaching out to the voters they have lost, not intensifying their anger  by doubling down on more extreme left policies. The UK does need changes of policy, but back to the more moderate Manifesto, not forward to the Corbyn/Green agenda that will  destroy growth, deter investment and boost unemployment.