The EU’s bad offer to the UK has been conditioned by what the Prime Minister asked for. Mrs May and her team were trying to cherry pick in the way the EU told them not to, so they have ended up with no deal at all about the future relationship after two and half years of talks. If she had asked for a Free Trade Deal along the lines of Canada plus, with various arguments about how the Irish border would work we would be in a much better position. There are plenty of technical and practical ways of handling the border on existing technology, so we would have found out if these issues had been pressed whether the EU was up for a Free Trade deal or not. The Prime Minister’s refusal to table a free trade agreement, and her long delay over pressing more practical solutions for the Irish border has led to the current impasse with the UK Parliament and the complete lack of a Future Partnership Agreement other than a few pages of vague aspirations and plenty of negotiation to come.
Once Parliament has voted down the Withdrawal Agreement – as MPs currently say they will – the UK government needs to return to the EU with the individual detailed issues that are best resolved prior to just leaving, and to table a full Free Trade Agreement. We will then find out for sure whether the EU is serious about an FTA or not, and can in the meantime get on with fulfilling the pledge to leave. Immediately anyway the UK government should publish its tariff schedule for March 29 2019, set out details of how we will run our own borders from that date, and provide the necessary permissions for continuing trade and activity.
Mrs May rightly says the country wants shot of all the arguments and delays about Brexit. That is another good reason why we must veto the agreement she has come up with, because it sentences us to an indefinite future of endless talks about our future partnership, shorn of our bargaining position by all the concessions made in the Withdrawal Agreement.
November 26, 2018
Lovely picture of J-C Juncker patting happy, smiling Mrs. May on the back; no doubt he is saying to her: “well done Therese, you’ve done a much better job for us than we dared dream about, there’ll be a place on the commission for you next year”.
November 26, 2018
Thank heavens our leaders and MPs are far above that sort of low self interest, and that the gilded example of the Kinnock family will weigh nothing with them.
But, to allay unworthy suspicions and reassure a jealous nation, I suggest they pass a self-denying ordinance: that no MP who votes for this deal will be permitted to accept any position of profit from the European Union.
November 26, 2018
If you ask for eff all what do you expect?
We voted leave not dependent on a vassal state,withdrawal agreement and not based on a trade deal.
May has failed to deliver a trade deal. The 21 month extension was to transition then implement the trade deal. May has failed to get one therefore no extension required or needed. The UK must now negotiate a trade deal outside the EU from 29/03/2019 as a sovereign self governing nation without an EU gun to its head.
May wants to use this next prolonged period, however long it takes, as there is no escape, to get us to change our minds.
Write to your MP telling them May has failed to get a trade deal over the last 2 years and 9 months to implement therefore we must be out on the 29/03/2019 and negotiate outside the EU without a gun to our heads.
Everyone must stop her using the word deal for her withdrawal capitulation. It is nothing of. The sort nor is it what she promised us by 29/03/2019.
November 26, 2018
And still only about 90 Conservative MPs are thinking about voting against this.
November 26, 2018
Peter Wood. Yes, the bucket wasn’t big enough in our house.
November 26, 2018
Peter Wood
I bet you would get good odds on that not happening and about odds on that it will
November 26, 2018
Jr, Suggest you read Martin Howe QC’s rebuttal to No.10 claims about his article. Quite shocking the dishonesty coming from No. 10.
It is a must read for all MPs to prevent the lies from May having any ground. Why you lot do not oust and impeach her is beyond me.
November 26, 2018
How many times do you need to be told? One would need 158 Conservative MPs voting against T.May, and after the debacle of JRM unable to have 48 letters sent to Graham Brady to start the process, it looks rather improbable, at least in the short term. So please stop huffing and puffing, you’re just looking like the big bad woolf and the female piggy is still rather safe in her house made of bricks.
November 27, 2018
Once the vote of no confidence is in a secret ballot occurs giving those without courage the ability to express their genuine view without fear from whips and vindictive May. It might help people like you?
November 26, 2018
“Textbooks will be written on the incompetence of the British negotiation, but to call it incompetence is to be too kind, it’s been a conspiracy” – Michael Portillo
November 27, 2018
And we all know it. Mays a disgrace and not fit for high office. Her lies and deceit know no bounds!
November 26, 2018
Why won’t she table a free trade agreement?
November 26, 2018
Nig1
Because she doesn’t want to leave
November 26, 2018
libertarian
Correct
November 26, 2018
One day we shall know – was Mrs May dishonourable? Was she misled? Was she naive and weak? Was she evil and subversive? Was she selfishly greedy?
It’ll be interesting, but it doesn’t help us now. We just have to hope that among those ones who ‘rule’ us, the honourable ones will stand and be counted. Surely there are enough who think more of their country than they do of themselves and their over-paid jobs?
If it were me, I’d rather be behind a till at Tesco’s (doing a fair day’s work for a fair day’s pay) than be seen as a traitor to my country.
November 30, 2018
L Jones
Remarkably, I have a little experience in making a “judgement” like that. I chose ..well no job at all was lined up for me. Possibly much worse.
It , in the final analysis, well, there is no analysis between quite an economically nice life and ones Country.One has no choice at all in fact. I know. It is what you MUST do. No other option is there. No debate is there inside you. You HAVE to. You are on automatic.
November 26, 2018
Apparently you can’t do that whilst being a member of the EU, just shows what a ridiculous self-serving pseudo-state organisation the EU is.
In reality Article 50 should “trump” all of that rubbish…
November 26, 2018
Nig1, As Libertarian says. And because Theresa May – and the establishment – know better than us thick ignorant duped Leaves. Well, that’s what they say.
The DWA is based on Chequers; it is a revolving-door Remain; it will most likely get through Parliament; there is no incentive in it for the EU to give us a better final deal; we will pay and obey in perpetuity.
This is the end of the road for the UK and for England – we are back under the Norman yoke. Think I’m exaggerating? I was right before about Chequers and Labour Remains supporting it. Let us see who is right finally, because the only hope is action from Tory MPs now and I don’t see enough of them willing to step out of line.
November 26, 2018
You don’t table a free trade agreement to the EU. The EU invites you to negotiate a basic “association agreement” for starters. The latest version of twenty such agreements is the “deep and comprehensive free trade agreement” DCFTA. Mrs May mentioned this a while back until she found out what it meant in EU speak.
The EU – Ukraine DCFTA is the most advanced version. It is far better than a Canada CETA agreement; not as good as a Norway agreement. But, it is specifically designed to draw into the EU – and coincidentally NATO – the six countries on the EU eastern border with Russia. The EU / NATO has no need to offer such an agreement to the UK or anything close to it.
November 27, 2018
The NATO net comes before the EU snare.There’s not much coincidence about it.
Brexiteers who think NATO is wonderful don’t understand the connection.
November 27, 2018
Acorn, And neither have we the incentive to offer a better deal to the EU. You know what? – trade goes both ways.
November 28, 2018
Thanks for that King Canute. Are your feet wet yet?
November 27, 2018
acorn
Hilarious
I think China and the USA ( both bigger than the EU ) would argue with you on that.
The EU has been trying to get an DFTA with the USA ( its biggest customer) since around 1999
November 27, 2018
Because she can’t. We have to leave first.
November 26, 2018
May is part of the EU conspiracy to keep us wedded to and locked within the EU though you appear to believe she’s fighting the UK’s corner but doing it badly. Either you’re being naive or simply disingenuous
I watched BJ’s speech to the DUP but never once did he call for May’s head. I find that astonishing considering she’s tried to malign, slander and delegitimise him using the tried and trusted liberal left tactic of playing one of the many ‘phobe cards’ against him
Either the Eurosceptics are playing a cunning waiting game to strike at the opportune moment or they are simply spineless. I’m just praying it’s the former. If it’s the latter we can wave goodbye to our dream of democratic sovereignty and independence
November 26, 2018
She is fighting the UK’s corner badly. To say that she is scheming to keep us in the EU is attributing more cunning than she warrants. Any scheming is the work of civil service advisers; she can’t see past the end of her nose. Why do you think she offers no post-Brexit plan?
November 27, 2018
I am quite sure Mrs May is well aware of the EU’s plans for the next round of treaty changes intended to complete economic and monetary union and to lay the foundations of the Federal State of Europe. Work has already started and the new treaties are to be the centre piece of the next five year plan from May 2019, following the elections, until 2024. The new treaties are intended to come into effect no later than 2025.
This work will enable UK’s future relationship to be framed in terms of the new treaties towards the end of the transition period, Dec 2022 or later.
Meanwhile the regulations and directives applicable to UK by citation in the WA and their successors, which may have wider scope than the current laws, will apply automatically to UK. UK will also have considerable financial obligations and liabilities in the WA (over and above the £39 billion) in which the EU is able to draw.
November 27, 2018
I didn’t answer Dave Andrews’ question, “Why do you think she offers no post-Brexit plan?”
My previous reply stated what I believe her plan to be. Clearly it is not one to which any British Prime minister could admit.
November 26, 2018
Duncan:
Mrs May’s Withdrawal ‘Agreement’ misleads, aligning herself & the EU like a bad yoke. They whisked up a Withdrawal Disagreement & we people shall veto their vehement risks to our United Kingdom’s sovereignty.
We shall seize back our independence to act & trade freely with a smile.
The yoke stays on the EU, & Theresa may be left with the yolk of the rotten egg she faces before Easter.
November 26, 2018
The Tory party have already sold us down the river all this sabre rattling is all bluff.
They don’t want us to leave but now are about to put us in a worst situation than been a member. The EU will still be controlling our laws, borders, fisheries and Northern Ireland and Gibraltar we are now just part of the EU Empire. What a price to pay I hope the 17.4 million Brexit voters don’t waste their time voting Tory next time.
November 26, 2018
The 17.4m leavers should be ensuring they do not vote for pro EU candidates whether they be Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem or Green.
At the same time they should consider whether or not to continue to buy so much from the EU or consider other non-EU holiday destinations.
We have a £95bn/year trading deficit with the EU.
November 26, 2018
Duncan
Thought his speech was poor, too much waffle, too few facts.
A good opportunity wasted.
November 26, 2018
We voted to leave the Titanic…just in time. The PM has now agreed that the lifeboat must be permanently tied to the sinking ship.
November 26, 2018
I’m afraid it is the latter. May should never have been elected Leader and look at what an almighty mess she has made. However, if the aim was to make Brexit appear to be very difficult – it’s not – and to inflict huge damage on the UK leading to growing demands to either not leave the EU at all or rejoin before the ink is dry then she has done her job very well. I believe what will happen is the UK will be made to rejoin before the next EU Parliament elections in 2024. I have now come to the conculsion that only the total and utter destruction of the EU will lead to the liberty of Europe and the sooner the that happens the better. I also believe that the destruction of the Tory Party and the emergence of a new Conservative Party will be a necessary step. This betrayal is one too far.
November 26, 2018
Duncan, It is tiresome but instructive to read the Draft Withdrawal Agreement (DWA). The DWA (version 0) confirms that what Mrs May claims is the inverse of the truth.
Theresa May says the UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. Her DWA states: “Unless otherwise provided in this Agreement, Union law shall be applicable to and in the United Kingdom during the transition period” (DWA Art 127, p196). And the “Transition” can be extended beyond Dec 2020 – see Art 3 in Protocols N.I., p308.
And Mrs May says the UK will not be subject to the CJEU, yet the EU explicitly states that EU law will be adjudicated by the CJEU, and the DWA echoes that principle throughout the text, for example: “… the Court of Justice of the European Union shall have jurisdiction as provided for in the Treaties …” (DWA Protocols Annex 10, p494, Art 11).
Mrs May says the UK will leave the EU’s customs union. Her DWA states: “Until the future relationship becomes applicable, a single customs territory between the Union and the United Kingdom shall be established (“the single customs territory”)” (DWA Protocols N.I., p310, Art 6).
Mrs May says the UK will leave the EU’s single market. Her DWA specifically requires UK compliance with over 370 EU Articles, Directives, Regulations, Decisions, and Notices (I gave up counting) many of them in relation to the EU’s Internal Market (example: references to TFEU Part Three – in DWA Art 41, p72) – commonly referred to as the single market.
November 27, 2018
She can claim she is telling the truth assuming that the EU gives us permission in 20XX, subsequently altered overnight to 2022. By which time she will have done a runner.
November 26, 2018
Nobody can be sure this so called deal will get voted down. If not then we are toast as a nation and the Tory party are too. I cannot believe it has been allowed to progress this far. We are on the brink of becoming slaves, being told what to do. Its a disgrace John and total humiliation watching a PM crawl to the EU. Our great history as a nation crushed. Theresa, thanks for nothing.
November 26, 2018
We may end up as slaves but they cannot force us to buy their wine, cheese, cars, holidays or anything else for that matter.
While our government is obviously intent on tying us to the EU we don’t have to support them, spend your money elsewhere.
November 26, 2018
GaryC. I already do wherever possible. It still won’t alter the fact that we are under the thumb and always will be.
November 26, 2018
Gary C.
Exactly what I am trying to do. Local produce where poss, growing veg and even making own washing powder etc!! Desperate times.
November 26, 2018
Gary C, That is excellent – we have the power.
November 27, 2018
I have already stopped buying any EU produce or product.
November 26, 2018
Indeed the deal must be rejected and May Hammond must be thrown out in total and utter disgrace. All their other tax and regulate to death economic policies are totally wrong headed too anyway.
She will bury the country and her party and give us Corbyn if she is not evicted. Perhaps her most annoying trait is her telling us what leavers voted for and the people want, she has not got a clue. Get rid of this appalling socialist liar now.
November 26, 2018
FUS, if it gets through, then that will be because of “abstainers” rather that those that actually vote for it…
November 26, 2018
Any MP who votes against the Withdrawal (Surrender) Agreement will be doing the right thing, but for widely differing reasons. Labour just want an election.
A smart MP (cue Mr Redwood) might want to try to table a motion which says that the UK should leave the EU on WTO terms without a deal if this is the EU’s latest and last offer. That would flush out Labour’s have-their-cake-and-eat-it leadership who want to appeal to both sides of the Brexit argument and blame the Tories as it would expose those who secretly want to stay bound in.
November 26, 2018
Fedupsoutherner
Whilst I am absolutely sure our Host will vote against the “withdrawal agreement” and perhaps a few high level leavers, like you I am not so sure many others who have said they will, will end up doing so.
Mrs May will try to use every trick and promise in the book to try and get as many as possible on board to vote for it, by offering all sorts of political inducements, promises and threat. This kind of pressure politics has of course worked before on a smaller scale, but this time May is absolutely desperate, and history has shown a good number of MP’s on all sides are not above being turned, if it is in their personal interest to do so.
The two week brainwashing and inducement campaign is now up and running do not take anything for granted.
November 26, 2018
The “Mrs May and her team” is the Mrs May you Tory MPs installed as PM and still even to this day who you all support (apart from less than 48). It’s a bit late to complain about her now.
Reply I did not vote for Mrs May!
November 26, 2018
No John, but you won’t send in that letter either.
November 26, 2018
Gove’s stabbing of Boris is to blame. The members would have certainly preferred Boris to the socialist, remainer, dope May had they been given any say.
November 26, 2018
Quite right and the way Gove stabbed Boris at the very last moment, and did not tell him in advance, shows his true character. Having just listened to his interview at the time, setting out his ideas for a Brexit Britain, I wonder how he can square them with voting for this deal.
Ambition of course. We have not heard the last of Mr Gove. What will he say next?
November 26, 2018
Give now says he supports May’s deal (he said so on a BBC news report when doorstepped). I think he must have been a plant in the Brexit campaign. That accounts for his back stabbing of Johnson’s leadership bid.
November 26, 2018
That should read Gove!
November 26, 2018
I trust you have your letter drafted and ready for despatch to the 1922 Committee?
Are you perhaps waiting to see of the Agreement gets voted down? The maths says it will be but you never know for sure in politics do you?
She has to go. The Party is haemorrhaging support and risks being out of power for a generation if something is not done about this capitulation.
“NO DEAL IS BETTER THAN A BAD DEAL” She needs to be reminded of that. This is a very bad deal indeed and will come back and bite her and the Conservative Party.
I received a ‘personalised’ letter yesterday full of factual inaccuracies. I was appalled and insulted by it and I have written to number 10 to say so. No doubt she has a team of minions there trained to ignore such things. If you can ignore 17.5 million people, your cabinet, and the House then what’s a few thousand emails?
November 26, 2018
There appears to be no time limit on the aggregation of 48 letters to the 1922 com’ chairman! Perhaps the chairman has some left from previous calls for letters?
Reply NO there is no time limit. The Chairman has to announce when he is possession of 48. Individual MPs may submit with or without publicity, and may withdraw letters already submitted if they change their minds. Only Sir Graham knows the score.
November 26, 2018
And we TRUST Sir Graham? John, we don’t trust anyone at the moment.
November 26, 2018
I am glad to see you wrote to the PM at no. 10.I have just done the same. If half the country write in it could register in May’s head that we do not agree with her as well as the MPs.
November 26, 2018
It won’t be out of power for a generation. It will be destroyed – like the Whigs. Labour will be in power for decades with small parties getting a few seats each. It is the end of two party democracy. The Tory Party has committed suicide.
November 26, 2018
But, of course, the May deal will get through Parliament. That was always the intention no matter what alleged Brexiteer Tory MPs say… It really is a case of taking the money and doing nothing.
The current Tory Party is pointless and represents nothing but the greed and self interest of its MPS.
November 26, 2018
Vince Cable on just now, saying that he won’t be supporting May’s deal. If the vehemently pro-EU won’t back the deal their EU friends have endorsed, what hope does May have for anyone else?
It won’t get through Parliament, particularly when labour are out to defeat the Government. The disciple of Benn has no affection for the EU and won’t expedite their plans.
November 26, 2018
There are NO technical and practical ways of handling the border on existing technology. If there were, the parties would have agreed them already. If there were, they would have been used already at the Norway/ Sweden border, the France/ Switzerland border and the US/ Canada border. You make yourself look foolish by claiming there is a technical fix – but never ever telling us what it is!
November 26, 2018
How very naive of you to think the border issue between Ireland (EU) and the UK is one of technology.
Wake up Sir. The border issue is being used as political leverage. The issue was NEVER about the use of technology.
The EU wants to shackle the UK in whatever way it can and they will exploit all areas to achieve that subjugation
November 26, 2018
Leave it open then!
November 26, 2018
The Irish border problem does not exist.
It’s been invented by our remainer UK PM to stop the UK leaving the EU so that it remains in the SM/CU/ECJ.
Mr. Varadkar and Mr. Juncker have both agreed that even in the event of “no deal” (viz WTO terms) there still would not be a hard border between Ireland and N.I. :
https://order-order.com/2018/10/18/juncker-varadkar-guaranteed-irish-parliament-no-hard-border-event-no-deal/
There exists already a border for currency, VAT, excise duty, corporation and personal taxation and Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras are ALREADY installed at the main border crossing to supervise these differences and others between the UK and Ireland.
https://order-order.com/2018/05/16/irish-border-camera-problem-solved/
November 26, 2018
This was not the opinion of the Irish customs until Vardakar ordered them to stop cooperation with the UK customs, who also have no problem with a lack of a customs post on the border itself. The real problem for the EU is that they are planning a border post around the whole of the EU from 2020 with electronic scanning and were planning to charge 7 E for a 3 month visa. They are now talking about no charge. They have plans to allow locals near to the border to pass freely. The solution would be for them to recognise the 100 year old freedom of travel and put their border on the Irish sea border and airports. Ireland does not want to be in Shengen anyway. They can deal with overstating visitors by work permits, as the UK does.
November 26, 2018
overstaying visitors
November 26, 2018
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/11/22/is-that-it-the-political-declaration-with-the-eu/#comment-975645
“Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has finally admitted in the Irish Parliament that although trapping the UK under the rules of the EU Customs Union and the EU Single Market in perpetuity would be his preferred route to keep the land border completely open there could be other ways, which would have to be put into effect in a hurry in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement … ”
“So much for Theresa May’s claim that there could be no alternative.”
November 26, 2018
Henry Spark
Oh dear how far behind the curve are you?
Both the head of HMRC customs in the UK and RoI both said in appearances in the house that there is a perfectly workable technology solution
Heres a report on BBC website from LAST MAY about this solution https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44230523
November 26, 2018
Interesting paper here:
http://www.dcbmep.org/a-firm-solution-to-the-hard-border/
from David Campbell Bannerman MEP
November 26, 2018
I find it very irritating when people such as Henry Spark who plainly has never imported nor exported goods tells us his opinions.
My experience over decades, are that there are few problems in dealing with non EU nations and that it is only marginally easier to deal with EU nations.
November 27, 2018
I drive my goods straight to France. No checks, no delays, no paperwork. Which non EU countries do you do the same with?
November 27, 2018
USA !!!
I regularly import components from the USA.
Place order Day 1, receive the goods Day 3 duty and carriage paid.
No other paperwork needed.
With Imports and Exports to EU countries there is an INTRASTAT form that needs to get filled in.
Realist it sounds like you are selling direct to consumers and are not VAT registered?
November 27, 2018
You can buy and sell goods all over the world and get them delivered quickly.
The difference in bureaucracy between EU and non EU is minimal.
You are just stating a geographical fact, that France is close by.
No paperwork you say.
I find that very strange, if you are running a business selling into or buying from France.
November 27, 2018
Realist
If you are selling into the EU then you’ve just admitted a criminal activity. There IS “paperwork” involved
November 26, 2018
there are numerous crossing points between France and Switzerland with no controls at all. the only reason there are delays at Geneva – never more than 5-10 mins or so – is because of road tax. of course customs, if needed, can be dealt with as excise duties etc are dealt with now. this issue is a complete red herring. the EU has played it skilfully against the hapless Mrs May + civil service, although i think we will see that they have over-played their hand.
November 26, 2018
Eu think tank seems to disagree with you Henry. They even cite examples already in existence.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=IPOL_STU(2017)596828
November 26, 2018
A hard border isn’t required as demonstrated by the technology used, including TIR and electronic manifestos, by the Swiss and its surrounding countries. A tiny percentage of trucks are stopped for checking and these stops are conducted many km from the border. In any event, there already is a border between the Republic and N Ireland; a border that divides countries with different excise rates and currency. Neither the Republic nor the UK wants a hard border so it won’t be built anyway. It’s merely a negotiating tactic employed by the EU commission, a put up job if you like.
November 26, 2018
Henry Spark, The border between Eire and the UK (Northern Ireland) is already handled remotely! Moreover the WTO MFN status does not require a “hard” border, nor border checks. Only the “fortress Europe” concept of the EU creates a hard border. And that’s the EU’s problem, not ours. You make yourself look foolish by claiming there isn’t a technical fix – but never ever admitting there already is one!
November 26, 2018
We have a free trade agreement right now. It is called EU membership, and a very good thing it is too
November 27, 2018
Free trade with 27 other countries who receive money from net contributors like the UK via the EU. Poland’s economy would implied if payments to it were stopped. It is highly dependent on EU subsidy which the UK is the second biggest contributor.
That and that alone is reason enough to leave.
November 27, 2018
Renton
WRONG we do not have a FTA within the EU. Its a customs Union. Do try to keep up
November 26, 2018
I disagree, the EU’s whole attitude has been conditioned by their need to either stop Brexit or make it so bad that non of the other EU27 member states considers following our lead, thus causing the collapse of the EU thus a ‘deal’ beyond that of WTO rules was always fanciful – never mind the ‘easiest trade deal in history’.
The EU say they are not going to reopen negotiations, and why should they give us a “Canada ++” style of FTA, it is simply not in their (the European Commission) interests to do so, in their eyes that would be akin to giving a treat to a naughty child. Brexiteers now need to explain why leaving on WTO rules will be good, or at least not as disastrous as the MSM keep making out.
November 27, 2018
Agreed Jerry,
They also say that “attack is the best form of defence” so maybe continually remind those that voted Remain and the “waverers” what direction the EU is taking in the near future.
Loss of rebate, EU army, direct taxation, join the Euro…
All here – https://ec.europa.eu/commission/five-presidents-report_en
November 26, 2018
‘Once Parliament has voted down the Withdrawal Agreement’. Let’s just focus on that please.
It is not a given. Numbers can get whittled down and there will be an all out propaganda blitz pushing the deal and creating fear for the future.
What happens next can be planned for, but it does not have to dominate the main public debate about the terrible consequences of the Withdrawal Bill.
November 26, 2018
The agreement will not be voted down. The conservatives are not even capable of changing the leader who wishes to force this agreement on the nation. There will be labour abstentions and votes for the bill. To put it in extreme stark terms the conservatives will not remove a leader who is willing to cede NI to Ireland, Gibraltar to Spain, UK waters to France and tariff and rule.making to Brussels, and then be willing to pay reparations. This will end very badly in the coming decades, but it looks like it is going to happen.
November 26, 2018
And
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/this-bad-deal-is-worse-than-no-deal-and-worse-than-the-eu/
November 26, 2018
This is a bad deal. It will not put an end to the arguments as Mrs May claims. There will be years of disaster after disaster as the UK government of the day tries and fails to undo the damage of the Withdrawal Agreement.
November 26, 2018
No 10 have issued a rebuttal to Martin Howe QC’s critique of the ‘deal’ Mrs May has agreed to. Mr Howe has responded in kind and pretty much demolished the rebuttal – Spectator 25th November. I do not claim to understand the legal niceties but Mr Howe has done a fine job making clear to people without legal training that this ‘deal’ is fatally flawed, whether by design or sheer incompetence only Mrs May, her close allies and advisors know.
The ink was still moist on the surrender document when the, deep in a hole and still digging French President, Macron, confirmed that the ‘deal’ could indeed create a situation, in his example, our fishing grounds, where the UK could be locked in forever if the EU or elements within that malign organisation so wish.
On this point alone May’s deal has to be defeated and she has to follow it out of the door.
November 26, 2018
We needed somebody in place who knew what was voted for. This woman never understood that, so quite why she’s doing the job is unclear. In any other walk of life she’d have been fired 2 years ago.
November 26, 2018
So you say that you will vote against this Very Bad Deal. As do the Labour Party and the DUP. If you all vote as you claim, the VBD will be rejected by the House of Commons.
Then what? May does not want to be responsible for NO Deal. But the DUP won’t support a no confidence vote called by Jeremy Corbyn.
So we end up with NO Deal unless May herself calls for a General Election. She has a message ‘Vote for me. Give me a big enough majority to get VBD instead of NOD. Avoid a Labour Government’. With the threat that if she doesn’t get a big enough majority we get NOD.
Labour will offer further negotiation. And a people’s vote. Not clear what the question would be …
Both will want an extension beyond March 2019. I can’t see the EU giving an extension to May or a replacement Conservative PM. It would be hard for them to reject a request from Jeremy Corbyn if he’d just won an election, without being clearly labelled by everyone as the villains in a NOD.
I think DUP will vote against this VBD, but not in a vote of no confidence to trigger a GE.
The same strategy would seem appropriate for you and ERG rebels. Vote against this deal. But not in a vote of no confidence. Slide into NOD
November 26, 2018
Oh! And after NOD May has to go.
November 26, 2018
Président Marcon has helpfully explained that the backstop gives the EU leverage over the UK on fishing and a host of other things. So the long years ahead of future ‘negotiatons’ will consist of the UK being told it has to ‘come to terms with reality’ and concede this or that.
Let’s see whether Parliament stops this horrible deal – Martin Howe in the Telegraph gives a very coherent legal view as to why it should. If it doesn’t I guess I’ll have to swing behind the ‘people’s vote’ and see whether we can crawl back in, which would be better than this. If that happens we’d then need a remain PM – may as well stick with May! (Is this all a cunning plan?!)
November 26, 2018
Good morning
Look the EU can only discuss that which the heads of government of the rEU27 will allow them. We are not negotiating a trade because the EU cannot whilst we are still members . Only after we have left can we. That is why the current Agreement is so flimsy on FTA because we will not have left.
We should have offered the EEA first. This would have been far easier and left the EU little or no room as it is already is in place and we fulfill all the requirements. If they, and the Irish government reject it, then so be it, they would have to explain why and would therefore leave us no choice but WTO. Such an outcome would be disasterous for the Irish economy so I’d doubt they would.
November 26, 2018
Yes indeed, people are totally hacked off with the way Brexit has been conducted – that’s why they want an end to it…. But will the EU reopen negotiations if May’s deal is rejected by Parliament – They have said no, and we all know how intransigent they can be.
It’s worth a shot to try and get some change from the EU, but IMVHO it’s unlikely to work in our favour, unless we say we will be leaving in March on WTO terms, with no further talks.
What must happen now is for all of us to start shouting the benefits of a WTO Exit, while disabusing everyone of the lies told about doing so.
November 26, 2018
Before the referendum , neither Westminster nor Whitehall spent any time preparing for a Leave outcome .
Since the referendum they have not spent any time preparing for leaving without a deal .
This is a deliberate attempt by our own establishment to undermine the UK’s negotiating position – by not having a fall back .
To reiterate , the situation we find ourselves in now is part of the plan , not due to incompetence .
November 26, 2018
If this deal is approved by the HoC, the Conservative Party will be toast and the responsibility for this disaster for our country will lie firmly on the shoulders of Tory MPs. You will never be forgiven for this humiliating betrayal and, trust me, you will never be in power again in my lifetime.
November 26, 2018
But this is only half of the story. Macron, Merkel at al have already said that an FTA will be subject to single market rules, staying in a customs union and following EU social, environmental, taxation and energy policies as well as giving them our fish.
The FTA is remarkably like being in the EU without representation.
If we don’t agree to this then the backstop will be activated leaving us just as we are now with no right of termination.
Any politician who signs up or abstains on this nonsense will have to watch their back.
November 26, 2018
May doesn’t care as there won’t be any power remaining in the UK if her deal passes. Parliament will retain the same status as a local council at most.
November 26, 2018
Christine, You are right, and I am amazed that the majority of Tory MPs cannot see it.
November 26, 2018
Agreed. Talking to people, that seems to be the general sentiment out there. If this WA goes through, the Conservative party is finished for good. In just a few years, the PM has managed to alienate, confound and enrage most traditional supporters of the party. How could anyone possibly agree to these terms unless they wanted to demolish any chances of a proper departure? This is not stupidity or weakness, this is deliberate wrecking tactics and from people who are so wedded to being part of a European Federation that they are prepared to destroy their own party and potentially consign this country to 5 years of unreconstructed Marxism, tooth and claw.
November 27, 2018
I absolutely agree.
November 26, 2018
There is only ONE way to move forward with Brexit
That is to replace May and her remainer cabinet
Fail to do that and we are staying, no matter which way the WA vote goes
November 26, 2018
Libertarian, Time is running out for the Tory party. As you say, unless Mrs May and her Remain team are replaced, we will in essence, become a province of the EU empire. Personally I think the DWA will get through Parliament powered by Remain MPs of all parties. People may not realise what’s going on now but they sure will do in a year’s time. This is the beginning of a decade of crisis. Unless the Remains get booted out.
November 26, 2018
The ERG together with Labour’s leavers needs to compile a very simple, soundbite walk away proposition which overcomes terms such as “cliff edge” “crash out” “hard Brexit” etc.
The response needs to explain clearly how the needs of 27 countries does not benefit us, how reduced immigration and increased per capita GDP will makes us all better off, how we need not fear a border on Ireland, how the EU is a political construct that looks after itself, how much of our current trade (flowing in and out of the country) is conducted under pre cleared WTO rules, how few of our SMEs trade with the EU and so do not need to be shackled to single market rules, how our services are world class and will continue to be competitive, how we are already a compassionate, diverse country that does not need EU rules to look after all and other canards.
Only by fully and simply taking control of the narrative will the WTO option seem the less extreme exit.
November 26, 2018
My own Tory MP lost half his majority in the last GE in an area that has always been staunchly,staunchly Tory. The Tory party has not been famous for kindliness to electoral liabilities ( in this case disaster) ..so what on earth is going on? Have we finally reached the point where democracy and party politics are actually irrelevant? No more Westminster? No more elections? ( Considering the Referendum what is the point of voting?). Are Mrs Merkel’s and Macron’s demands that all EU members relinquish sovereignty being obeyed? I never dreamed that my government would do this to me…and I am scared.
November 26, 2018
yes we do seem to have an “elected dictatorship” as all the candidates from the main parties are from the same narrow section of society, with far too many agreed accepted wisdoms that ordinary people regard as nonsense. plus the state employees of all flavours carrying on regardless of what happens politically. its very hard to see how the decent wishes of the majority of the people ever get to happen, in many different policy areas, in this system.
November 26, 2018
The EU won’t allow any more elections if this withdrawal agreement gets through the Commons and Lords
November 26, 2018
There is so much wrong with this WA that even if she managed to change one part the rest is political suicide. Is it not clear to you MPs that May has sold out her party and the country. I can’t believe any of you are standing by her. The public are so angry it’s palpable.
November 26, 2018
I’ve just listened to the latest Brexit Secretary on radio 4. He is allegedly pro Brexit although I wouldn’t have guessed it. If I hear another politician say the words “ very clear “ I think my head will explode.
Does the Conservative Party really understand that they are doomed at the polls in the next General Election ? Does the PM realise she has moved her head from under the sand to under fast setting cement ?
If it takes the EU just half an hour to agree to anything it must be massively in their favour.
But, what should we expect when our negotiators have pretty well all been committed supporters of the European grand federal project.
November 26, 2018
Arthur
It’s all been a big plan all along. All these negotiations were decided at the very beginning. Its a charade and they think we’re all enjoying it. It’s all just been a ploy to keep us under the thumb and for our PM to make it look as though she tried. The establishment has ignored what we voted for and done what many of us said they would. None can be trusted and they wonder why we mistrust politicians. One day someone will make a comedy out of it and ignore all the missed opportunities this country could have had. Simply, it’s all about power.
November 26, 2018
If Parliament agrees to this withdrawal document then the EU will be in charge and we won’t be having any more General Elections.
November 26, 2018
Mrs May failed to win a majority even before she had betrayed the country on Brexit, so with the betrayal having taken place and her still at the helm, the Conservative Party will indeed be wiped out. I am an Conservative to my fingertips, but I found myself agreeing with what both Keir Starmer and Nicola Sturgeon were saying on the news today. I voted Leave but would rather remain in the EU than pay £39 billion for vassal status. I don’t understand why Conservative MPs don’t see that most of them will lose their jobs unless they get rid of Mrs May and her humiliating and expensive “deal”. They are like turkeys voting for Christmas.
November 26, 2018
You ask- “Is this the EU’s best offer”- you seem to conveniently forget that it was our decision to leave – it is not up to the EU side to make offers to us- they have just said goodbye- all that is necessary now is that we leave 29March.
The Withdrawal agreement is there on the table, if we agree to it then some kind of future is mapped out- if we don’t agree to it then perhaps we’ll have a GE- but being not politically connected myself I can tell you this, no matter how bad we think the Tory leadership is at present time, a Corbyn led government is certainly not the answer., Think about it
November 26, 2018
One sided is to be expected, especially from the EU. But, to tie the UK in to something that is potentially detrimental to the UK for perpetuity is not acceptable at any level…so must be rejected.
November 26, 2018
@ BenD – Indeed it is the UK’s decision and that fact alone ought to have given it some initiative but its Establishment has naively supposed that the EU would act in the EU’s best interests, hence agree a trade deal etc., whereas the Eurocrats define best interests in terms only of further their power.
The Withdrawal Agreement thus does offer some kind of future mapped out but it is a map most in the UK want discarded.
A Corbyn-led government might be bad, but we could eventually recover from it. I doubt we could recover from the Withdrawal Agreement.
November 26, 2018
Nice try. Corbyn may be more supportive of Brexit than May and we can replace him. This country may require a period of communism to re-set itself and a true centre right party might emerge from the ashes.
November 26, 2018
Hmm. No-one had ever thought about that. Thanks for the advice.
November 26, 2018
Good points.
November 26, 2018
BenD, If we were to accept the DWA, the subsequent Relationship Treaty will be no better because the EU has no incentive to offer us any more. The DWA means the UK is confirmed as a province of the EU empire. In which case Jeremy Corbyn and even Westminster are completely irrelevant.
November 26, 2018
May and Robbins have capitulated in the so called negotiations and how any MP’s in parliament can vote for this then they must be voted out at the next GE.We need a 100% brexiteer as our PM and then we can go back to the EU and tell them what we want and if they don’t agree then we wave goodbye.No giving the £39bn,no giving our fishing waters and most definitely no Gibraltar.
November 26, 2018
That would be great…but our Parliamentarians won’t allow it.
November 26, 2018
I would keep Robbins out of it. This is May’s deal. She wants to tie us to Europe meantime and then in the longer term just drop all possibility of Brexit. That this is against the vote to leave and her own red lines does just show what fraudulent speech and behaviour she engaged in since she became PM. This false Brexit cannot be allowed to happen. Also the spin is worthy of Blair and Campbell if not worse.
November 26, 2018
Enrico
We were told no deal is better than a bad deal. We the people believed it and what have we got? A bad deal. Mrs May will not consider no deal.
We were told “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” while negotiating a backstop. The whole purpose of a backstop is that it is agreed if everything else cannot be agreed.
We were told that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”. We are now told that her incomplete deal is the only deal. Why should we accept it and move on, as it is mostly agreed? Except, it agrees nothing except a backstop and a statement of intention to form an agreement during a transition period and even this can be extended. Because negotiations must continue to find an agreement. But those negotiations are not up for negotiation. For they are agreed.
It must be me I am surely missing something here. It is a joke
The only thing I am sadly assured of is, Mrs May will continue to have the deepest support of the majority of MPs in her attempt to become a future President of the European Commission.
November 26, 2018
But, wait. I thought German car makers and French wine growers were going to come to your rescue Mr Redwood?
Where are they?
Your Brexit means humiliation and subservience. The next generation will never forgive any of you.
November 26, 2018
Who wanted anyone to come to our rescue?
You keep making things up you claim leavers wanted.
The dreadful deal has been developed by Remainers.
So this is your fuure reality andy.
November 27, 2018
Andy, The humiliation and subservience comes from remaining.
November 27, 2018
NickC.
Argue your case instead of expressing emotions
November 27, 2018
Like you do hans….
November 27, 2018
Whether we are in the EU or tied to the EU by Mrs. May’s un-exitable deal will bring “humiliation and subservience” to the UK.
The next generation will eventually learn their mistake of wanting to remain in the EU.
Just as those of us who are old enough to have mistakenly voted for the Common Market at the first referendum now realise, and consequently voted against membership of the EU at the first opportunity 4 decades later.
November 26, 2018
Conservative MPs are to blame for her still being PM.
Now it seems we have a rerun of the Government promoting Remain (£9m booklet) with her touring the country at our expense on this outrageous agreement.
November 27, 2018
There is every chance that her personal campaigning for this terrible deal will be no more successful than her personal “strong and stable” GE election campaign.
November 26, 2018
In the not untypical style of politicians as and when the Tory party come second in the next general election most of them will be saying that they never approved of both the deal or Mrs.May. The usual “not me Guv” approach.
November 26, 2018
The agreement does look like something Britain should ,in the EUs opinion , be pathetically grateful to accept .
It is a terrible agreement , weighted , in my own humble opinion , in the EUs favour .
very poor for the UK .
November 26, 2018
As you say Mrs May is the cause of the current mess. The EU made arrogant demands after the referendum which reflected badly on itself, which position Mrs May has turned around to make the UK into supplicants and look foolish.
I see in The Telegraph that Mrs May wants a TV debate with Mr Corbyn – I guess she hopes to con the country, but this will likely provide a huge boost to Corbyn and Labour instead.
Hopefully Mrs May will be heavily defeated and we end up at WTO terms.
November 26, 2018
Mr Redwood,
No one outside a small circle knows what the EU representatives could have recommenced to the Council and what of that would have been more palatable to UK politicians of various persuasions. According to many heads of government yesterday, this is it and furthermore, there was nothing in Barnier’s mandate (imo) that could have led to a better offer, especially while the EU has been very consistent in stating is objectives. From the start it was a situation of one party exercising its right to determine the rules of access to its markets and do so in a self-interested way. The Uk simply lacked the bargaining power to make the EU change its own rules and anyone familiar with that institution could have knon that insiders (look at the history of violations of the GSP) can make trouble and influence the rules, but outsiders are .. outsiders.
In principle, UK negotiators had two choices: try and get the best possible deal (subjective of course, I guess they went for minimizing short term economic damage) or walk away. Maybe some would truly benefit from walking away (no need to specify but easy to imagine) but most people would not, not even those with little or no international aspects of their daily life.
The walking away case would have “cost” the EU a little money (39 bn over a number of years is a rounding error for the combined economies of the 27) but it would have made the EU a hostile neighbor with ontrol over many things the UK needs to function. Not a very good idea for a democratic government facing an election in a few years. There was (and is) no white knight. Recent developments in the US make it even more likely that the US could offer a (favourable to the UK) FTA at short notice. So this is it and if it is rejected in Parliament (as seems likely now) there will be unpleasantness. But since the clock keeps ticking, who knows what happens in the end?
November 26, 2018
“We will then find out for sure whether the EU is serious about an FTA or not…”
An often forgotten fact is that it was Donald Tusk who initially suggested the Canada+++ FTA deal. It was May et al that turned it down as they thought there’d be too much friction in trade outside a customs union (despite other countries in FTAs expressing no demand to move these agreements towards a customs union). The EU was willing to have a clean break and establish a trade deal, and the government turned it down despite that being what was voted for in the referendum.
November 26, 2018
Is the PM going to give me another vote, of course NOT. Her public appeal is falling on my deaf ears.
If its a choice between Theresa May and her vassal state, non trade deal, fisheries give away, I will take Corbyn.
November 26, 2018
The EU, having achieved such a good Withdrawal Agreement for them, has unexpectedly maintained that no re-negotiation is possible.
Once Parliament has voted down the agreement, as no Parliament can surely be so anti-democratic as to agree to the UK being bound to the EU SM/CU/ECJ for ever or until every single EU nation has grabbed from the UK everything it can get, Mrs. May should either resign, or failing that, be removed so that new people with a new approach can re-start a new set of negotiations with the EU.
Even the EU cannot refuse to see a new negotiating team once the current draft Withdrawal Agreement has been rejected by Parliament.
November 26, 2018
I think the language coming from Brexiteers such as yourself in assuming this deal will be voted down by parliament is mislead and reminiscent of Remainers during the referendum assuming there was no way people would vote to leave the EU. This deal made it through the cabinet, and we have a particularly spineless set of ideological politicians at the moment. Please do not be complacent and assume that this deal will be voted down. May is going to campaign hard over the next two weeks to the media etc to get this deal through. This effort needs to be matched by an organised and united approach from Brexiteers such as you to ensure it is voted down.
November 26, 2018
We are now in for two weeks of nausea as the PM trails around the countryside trying to hoodwink the general public that she has secured a deal that protects jobs and the economy etc and removes uncertainty. Northing could be further from the truth.
She is trying to sell the ‘Political Declaration’ as a signed agreement when it is no more than an aspiration and based on her passed performance it is likely to remain so.
1 No discussions can take place until after 29th March 2019 and we have left the EU. So we not only waste 4 months but also put ourselves into an incredibly weak negotiating position
2During the passed two years every time we have tried to bring the future trading arrangements to the to top of the agenda the EU have stepped in with another item that MUST be agreed first. It won’t be any different in April next year when I bet Macron will insist on the reinstatement of the CFP under another name for his fishermen.
3 Every one of the 27 members can attempt to delay the trade discussions for one reason or another until the Transition period expires. Then what happens? We either get a short extension or fall under the Back Stop which will herald the end of the UK as we know it today.
4 We cannot believe the PM when she says that it is very unlikely that the Back Stop will be used when you look back at her record on retaining her declared ”red lines” and how easily they were given away.
5 She is doing exactly the same as Cameron in trying to sell a rotten deal but on that occasion we already had a date for the referendum. Now we need every MP to step up to the plate, put their career aspirations to one side and vote this appalling deal down.
November 26, 2018
Mrs May is consigning the Conservative party to the dustbin.
All we can hope is that some new parties emerge that reflect the British people better than the political class we are now saddled with.
Looks like it will take a Corbyn government for senior Conservatives to see how silly they have been.
November 26, 2018
Both May and Robbins are anti brexit just as Cameron was, and have negotiated like the amateurs they are, totally lacking in conviction. When the results are dismissed by Parliament she must go, to be replaced by honest brexiteers sprinkled with industrial negotiators but minus Robbins and all civvil servants associated with him. If the EU refuse to reconsider ,we have a financially beneficial position to fall back to.
November 26, 2018
May has not tried to cherry pick to get a good agreement. She was selected to undermine Brexit and give Brussels dictatorial power over Britain. A Quisling or Petain in other words.
She has told bare faced lies to parliament and the British people claiming to believe in the result of the referendum. She ran a deliberately appalling election in the hopes of wrecking Brexit, when that failed she failed to plan for No Deal and conspired with EU officials to force through this abject surrender. I fully expect to see MP’s bought off or blackmailed into allowing this to go through just as they always do. This whole sordid and treasonous episode simply reinforces the view that politics is merely a means of deluding enough people to allow the elite to do whatever they want.
November 26, 2018
If the published tariffs were all set at zero for say two years:
All present border/tariff controls would simply continue.
Consumers would have access to cheaper goods.
The possibility of imposing tariffs in future would give us leverage in trade talks to obtain tariff free access to overseas markets.
There would be no loss to the treasury as all duties currently go to the EU.
We would be in control of the process.
Supply chains could be rearranged at leisure where this is advantageous.
Not that Hammond will do this- he’ll be focused on extra revenue.
November 26, 2018
I agree that that this Irish Border issue has been manufactured by the EU as lever.
I also suspect that the EU has been incited to do so, by our own negotiators as a means of getting a deal which will keep us closer to the Customs Union and Single Market than some would have wanted.
When it comes to the crunch if this ‘backstop’ is activated most of us will choose to extend the whole UK’s participation in a Customs Union, rather split the UK down the Irish Sea. And that, I suspect was the intention.
I don’t necessarily agree however that asking for a different deal would have made any difference. When we voted ‘Leave’ we should have known that it was accept whatever deal we were offered, or Leave without one.
I certainly did.
November 26, 2018
Let me see…our fishing rights have already been conceded. Gibraltar has been handed over on a silver platter. Every red line has dissolved. The back-stop will of course be implemented. The £40 billion…just an inducement to achieve the veneer of a trade deal. But why bother? May says she will pay it no matter what so delay is inevitable, even more money for the EU.
November 26, 2018
We are negotiating as a prisoner of the EU; a single Country subject to the demands of every other Member State, and subservient to the European Politbureau.
We have to leave without an agreement, and negotiate once we have left.
In the meantime, those who wish us to remain are determined to start a war with Russia in order to defeat Brexit; why else is the pot being so vigorously stirred in Ukraine?
Are we going to go to war to support the …………in the Ukrainian Government, or are we simply acting under orders from Poroshenko, who faces an election he is unlikely to win?
We need an awareness of where Politicians at home and in Europe are trying to take us.
November 27, 2018
It was announced last week that the government was sending extra troops and HMS Echo-a survey(ie spy)ship – to Ukraine.Why?
There is definitely a war party here linked to the US neo-cons.The sooner we leave NATO the better-one of the reasons I will probably be voting for Corbyn next time(having already safeguarded my assets!).
November 26, 2018
Watching BBC Breakfast this morning I was so struck by the brazen lies about freedom of movement being told by the new Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay that I took the trouble to write down his words.
At 07:51 – “This is a good deal … It delivers on a lot of the key asks that we had, such as to have a skills-based immigration system …”
At 07:53 – “It delivers on the fundamentals of what we campaigned for as Brexiteers in the referendum … skills-based immigration, ending freedom of movement, was a key part of the referendum campaign … ”
I intend to write to Stephen Barclay asking him to point out exactly where this “deal” ends EU freedom of movement of persons and liberates us to adopt a skills-based immigration policy, but I think this would be a good point to raise in the Commons.
November 26, 2018
Putting to one side the obviously damaging aspects of this “deal” to the long term national interests, what is perhaps even more breath taking is the sheer naive realpolitik stupidity of it from a purely party point of view.
Cameron called the referendum for the sole purpose of putting to bed once and for all the post Maastricht divisions. May has pleaded for this deal on the grounds it will “end division and reduce uncertainty”. By failing to take the opportunity to, once and forever lance this boil, it will do the EXACT OPPOSITE.
It will cause continued, deeper divisiveness. And it will, very damagingly, prolong uncertainty.
In my view, those who think this will damage the party for a generation are naively optimistic. It will destroy it entirely, quite possibly much much sooner than anyone appears to imagine possible.
November 26, 2018
Any man who proposes simply leaving the EU with no new arrangements in place with our nearest neighbour and largest trading partner is completely bonkers.
November 27, 2018
Simon
More to the point; any man who thinks the EU is our largest trading partner needs to get out more.
Likewise any man who thinks France, being the nearest, can be safely regarded as a neighbour, is ignorant of the fact that France is universally recognised as having always been politically uncivilised.
November 26, 2018
JR.
We can agree and disagree about the contents of the existing deal with the EU and there is lots to discuss.
But I am afraid your potential alternative solution does not work either.
1) We are not ready for no deal with the EU
2) If, we offer a free trade deal with the EU, we have to offer it to all WTO members and our industry is not ready at this stage for that sort of competition.
So, I am afraid you are going to have to come up with something better than what you are proposing
November 26, 2018
Number 2 is wrong and a regular remainer myth.
WTO rules allow for variation based on individual nations risk assessments.
November 27, 2018
HCI
“We are not ready for no deal with the EU”
We were not ready for Napoleon or Hitler, you know the rest.
November 27, 2018
Steve,
This is not war it is peace and welfare for al going forward
November 27, 2018
But this time we do not have friendly relations with Russia!
November 27, 2018
Hans, There is no possibility of disagreement about the contents of the DWA. It is written in black and white. Don’t guess, quote.
You clearly have no idea how the WTO works. We do not have to offer an RTA to all WTO members. Not even your rotten EU has done that. By your logic the EU must offer us a Canada deal, a Japan deal, and a S.Korea deal. And all those must be the same. Which they are not.
Much of the DWA is merely technical – such as mutual recognition of professional qualifications, and mutual assurances of good relations with existing migrants. So the DWA, stripped of its capitulation clauses, will serve perfectly adequately for a tidying up exercise prior to using the WTO trade terms with the EU. What are you so afraid of?
November 28, 2018
NIckC,
Unells it is a full free trade agreement separately it has to be offered t all concerned, I did not get that wrong .
November 27, 2018
On point 1, define “we”. We already trade outside the EU and a large component of that trade is in services. EU trade agreements have not covered services so the argument that we rely on those agreements is not valid for services business.
On point 2, if what you say is true then why don’t all WTO members already enjoy all the benefits of existing EU “bilateral” trade deals?
Perhaps the WTO doesn’t actually work that way and you are mistaken.
November 28, 2018
we are hear talking about a separate free trade del otherwise it ahs to be offered to all concerned
November 26, 2018
Mrs May has been so busy trying to secure a deal for big businesses and the one world gov theme, she has forgotten about the people. The worthless deal is not binding in international law, it just an agreement between the UK and the EU, just like it was before article 50 was drafted into the treaty as an afterthought, they are trying to con you, you can at any by just letter saying so without any process needed. Its just a case of voting right people into parliament.
November 26, 2018
If it were a private company with a Chief Executive doing untold damage to the firm’s image and profits, (s)he’d be got rid of pretty damn quickly.
It seems to suit MPs to hide behind the ‘mystical’ machinations of Parliamentary procedure for reasons not to be shot of May quickly enough to effect a bit of damage limitation.
Set a precedent, for goodness’ sake!
November 26, 2018
The agreement that is to be signed next month by UN and the UK on the migration pact is a much bigger threat to the UK which is binding in international law, whereas the UK EU agreement is not binding in international law.
November 26, 2018
John,
In history can you recall a worse leader of our Country, given what a power surrender she is proposing in this Treaty?
I cannot – that is, from the time of the Roman Invasion by the Emperor Claudius onwards.
Perhaps other blog readers can advise?
November 27, 2018
King Alfred did agree to pay Ivar the Boneless and the Danes tribute in 871 AD and that continued off and on for well over a hundred years.In between time the country was also partitioned-with the Danelaw under Viking rule.
November 26, 2018
Whilst I sincerely hope that Theresa May’s Draft Withdrawal Agreement will be voted down by Parliament, my judgement is that it is likely to be accepted.
We have been here before, hoping that sanity prevails, hoping that Mrs May was sincere and honest, hoping that Mrs May wouldn’t “capitulate”, hoping that Chequers won’t define the deal, hoping that a “Kit-Kat Brexit” was just an isolated Remain civil servant, hoping that Mrs May’s deep and special relationship with the EU was just talk, hoping that her signing up to closer Defence cooperation with the EU could be overlooked, hoping that Labour Remains won’t help her out, hoping, hoping . . . .
Relying on hope ensures defeat. We are now very nearly defeated and still the Tory faithful will not open their eyes.
November 26, 2018
The two party duopoly’s grip on the legislative process has been proven to be prone to abuse by two parties with a sense of entitlement and nauseating arrogance
We need UKIP or the DUP with more than a handful of MPs in the Commons to undermine the cosy cabal Tory-Marxist Labour love-in
We can no longer rely on Tory Eurosceptics to protect the UK and its democracy. It is evident that this group of faux-democrats care more about their seats, pay and pensions than about defending the UK and its democracy
There are now so many snakes in the Commons that I fear we could see a total capitulation when this seditious piece of legislation (the WA) is presented on the house
You don’t deserve our trust and you have proven a disgrace to the UK
November 26, 2018
I see from The Daily Telegraph that “Speaking in the Commons today, Mrs May will say it is MPs’ ‘Duty’ t0 ‘listen to our constituents’ and deliver the Brexit the country voted for.”
I voted to leave the EU and not for a heap of fudge like this that ties us into it sine die. We should all make sure our MPs know exactly what we think. Mine does already because I copied her in to a letter I wrote to Mrs May, but I will now be reminding her!
November 26, 2018
It is the best deal possible considering the UKs red lines
November 26, 2018
As someone just posted on FB – The whole Brexit charade is the fault of Parliament, and especially the Tory cabinet members, who allowed May to have taken this so far…
THE RESPONSIBILITY RESTS WITH PARLIAMENT, TO FIND A WAY OUT OF THIS MORASS WE ARE IN – THERE IS A WAY OUT, THAT DOESN’T INVOLVE ABJECT SURRENDER TO THE EU. OUR FUTURE IS IN THE BALANCE – NOW IS THE TIME FOR PARLIAMENT TO SHOW US THAT IT IS WORTHY OF OUR TRUST, AND MAKE A SOLUTION THAT WORKS.
November 26, 2018
I wonder why Mrs May seems keen to sell her deal to the people, when the people have no vote, only politicians.
Are we being prepared for a second referendum or a general election ?
You need to get her out before she can do either John otherwise your Party is toast, as many will not vote Conservative whilst she is still leader.
November 28, 2018
Exactly, Alan, that’s what everybody I know is saying, why is she touring the Country telling people what she will do when we have no say in it unless of course, she is planning to give us a say with an election or people’s vote.
November 26, 2018
One feels punished for voting “Leave”.
November 26, 2018
I truly hope this dreadful withdrawal agreement will be rejected in Parliament. If it is, there is no point allowing the current government to continue to negotiate. It has shown that it cannot do it in a way that is favourable to Britain. May has to be ousted as PM if Britain is to change the current withdrawal agreement or simply reject it.
November 26, 2018
It has been said time and time again that you cannot do a deal with the EU, there was never going to be a deal.
The only way is to fully leave and prepare all instututions to cover the non trade gasps with appropriate arrangements, and of course make sure customs arrangements are ready which I believe are not – the EU will always come back at the 11th hour if they need to.
All this game playing by the PM and her small band of cronies is an absolute disgrace. I thought Civil Servants were there to advise rather than go behind Ministers back and manipulate.
The PM should have been brave enough to admit she didnt want BREXIT and stood up and said so. Instead this whole thing looks like a sabotage mission: keep the UK under the EU thumb until the time is right to call another refernedum and manipulate the electorate to go back in.
November 26, 2018
what is happening to the British troops currently in the Ukraine?
November 26, 2018
You the voters are still left at square one looking for a gov who will just send a letter saying that you will leave the EU altogether, this deal isn’t worth the paper it is written on, Mr Trump could get you out of it within a week if elected the leader of the UK, its as simple as that, the politician that you elect are all pathological liars back up by the media, you can still leave anytime you like, even after signing this deal.
Now they want to extend article 50 so you keep paying and stay as you are but only for one month because if you go into MAY 2019 you will have to have MEP election, then there’s Norway deal with payments to work out to which you will stay in with the free movement of people until they can work out a trade deal which will be never.
All want to do is pay them 39 billion and find ways to keep paying the EU money, EU want 6 more countries to join but they need to find the money to pay them 6 billion each a year, but they cannot afford to take away the 6 billion a year from the other 6 like Poland because they decide to leave, when the EU took away Spain and other 5 money they went right into a recession in 2009 because they lost the 6 billion a year.
November 26, 2018
Could not agree more with your last paragraph John.
Mrs May and her team have fallen well below even the minimum of expectations of far too many people.
Just hope that the politicians put the country before themselves cometh the vote. Far too many back stabbing, two faced and gutless kippers in the cabinet and on the benches.
Will not be holding my breath
November 26, 2018
Turboterrier
“Just hope that the politicians put the country before themselves cometh the vote”
That’s never happened before, so no reason to think it will happen now.
November 26, 2018
Mr. Redford, I have just seen your t.v. interveiw ,CNN.
How refreshing to hear sensible and factual comments on the current exit agreement from the e.u.
Please use your voice to reinforce the democratic vote result and lead the nation to free trade, exit form customs union and ECJ. May you win the parliamentary vote against this current agreement.
November 26, 2018
You could have at least got his name right.
November 26, 2018
Cherry picking – all I have seen is deliberate and calculated surrender.
November 26, 2018
Deceit and calculated surrender.
November 26, 2018
Mr Redwood;
Is it solely within the power of the Prime Minister to sign the United Nations Charter on Migration, or does Parliament have to be consulted?
Is it the Prime Minister’s intention to sign the Charter on Migration before March 29th 2019, and then claim that the UK’s Immigration policy is no longer within the purview of the EU, but is dictated by the U.N., and that being the case, Brexit is a complete waste of time?
It would be an understatement to say that if she does that, it will not go down very well.
Can her consent to the Charter be stopped?
November 26, 2018
“Once Parliament has voted down the Withdrawal Agreement – as MPs currently say they will”
This withdrawal offer has arrived at parliament through acts of treachery by the Prime Minister and losers not accepting the results of a democratic referendum – now it is openly discussed that MP’s will be bribed and blackmailed to vote it through. Parliament is driving its citizens to revolt as the only way of upholding democracy. The PM seems confident of winning – why so? Have the civil servants already been setting up MP’s for blackmailing and bribery?
November 26, 2018
Absolutely Mr. Redwood: BUT WHO has the necessary ABILITY and balls to drive through a plan which is simple, to the point and gets us where we want to be with no compromise. Who is there determined enough to present a plan and say take it or leave’ warning that the negotiation is time limited to a 2 months period with no extensions. At the same time call in Head of Civil Service , Head of Treasury to order their respective Staff to comply with setting up all that is required for a complete break with the EU so that the Country knows and the EU knows that we can leave on that basis if an agreement is not reached. We need somebody aggressive in achieving results for this Country; someone who is not floored by ‘in–coming nor will allow any diversion within Cabinet away from the central plan – ‘if you dont agree- next?’ and OUT them instantly similarly with Civil Service. It’s not a war – it’s do it this way or walk. Authority and discipline has to be brought back into politics.
November 26, 2018
The Prime Minister is frequently cited as being ” resilient ” as if this were a virtue in itself . The same could be claimed about the Light Brigade as they thundered into the Valley of Death. They were resilient but were they wise ? The Withdrawal Agreement is not a deal but a trap and if it is voted through the House of Commons by Conservative MPs the Conservative party will rue the day.
November 26, 2018
Having been watching The Crown on Netflix recently, I do sometimes find myself wondering how cordial the regular meetings between the PM and Her Majesty are nowadays.
Does the Queen still retain full trust in Mrs May? It would be tragic if that trust were to be misplaced.
November 26, 2018
Well we understand that, why can’t Theresa May?
The answer is that she does understand it and it’s exactly what what she intended, which makes sense if you accept the fact that she is working for Brussels, not Britain. The same principle applies to people that support her agreement like… [names omitted]
November 28, 2018
Certain ministers in the FO and many in the Lords.
November 26, 2018
EVERYONE is to blame for the Brexit catastrophe.*
* Except the people who actually voted for it.
November 26, 2018
I don’t think anyone actually voted for Mrs May’s deal yet. It certainly wasn’t on my ballot paper. However those MPs who actually do vote for this deal* are completely and entirely to blame.
*(and those who abstain, those who have allowed Ms. May to remain in power, and those who aren’t actively opposing it)
November 26, 2018
John. Does this UN document have any effect on the proposed immigration plans for the future? The BBC will not be too happy with this document unless they get bought off in a similar manner to the Canadian Media
The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration is a document detailing the requirements for UN member-states to adopt as policy that amounts to unfettered global migration. The Global Compact requires the media outlets of member-states to adhere to the objectives and refrain from any critical discussions of these objectives that would be deemed as not “ethical” and against UN norms or standards consistent with the ideology of globalism.
November 28, 2018
Just up May’s street. They have probably sent an advice email offering assistance to the press already.
November 28, 2018
Just up May’s street. They have probably sent an advice email offering assistance to the press already..
November 26, 2018
I sent a short email to Stephen Barclay earlier and now I’ve sent another on slightly different line to Michael Gove, as follows:
“Where does it say that freedom of movement is ended?”
“Mr Gove
You were on TV slavishly following the present government line by falsely claiming that Theresa May’s Brexit “deal” would end freedom of movement of persons.
So precisely where does it say that freedom of movement of people will be ended?
Nowhere, not in the legally binding withdrawal agreement nor in the non-binding political declaration. If you think otherwise, please specify the relevant articles.
In fact the exact opposite is true, her deal is necessary to PROLONG freedom of movement of persons, leading to the concern expressed here in the Guardian back in August:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/22/call-for-two-years-further-freedom-of-movement-after-brexit
“Although ministers have committed to continued free movement during a two-year transition period until the end of 2020, failure to reach a deal with Brussels before the end of March could throw that into doubt.”
Even the FT disagrees with you:
https://www.ft.com/content/64e7f218-4ad4-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b
“… this is when the 21-month transition period begins. During this time most aspects of UK membership of the EU will remain in place, including free movement across borders … ”
As does the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
“What is the ‘transition’ period?
It refers to a period of time after 29 March, 2019, to 31 December, 2020 (or possibly later) … Free movement will continue during the transition period, as the EU wanted …”
And of course that “possibly later” should really be “possibly never”; although the end of the transition period could be no later than 31 December 2022 under the terms of the withdrawal agreement as it stands (Articles 126 and 132) it would be a simple matter for all the parties to later agree to a small amendment.
So would I trust you to oppose the use of Article 132, and oppose any amendment to Article 132, and resign if the government persisted with either kind of proposal to postpone the end of the so-called transition period, perhaps sine die?
Of course not, and nor would I trust MPs to vote it down if it was put to them.
Dr D R Cooper”
November 26, 2018
Dear John,
Is it not possible to simply table a Money Bill amendment stating that no money, certainly not £39Bn shall be paid to the EU? I should think that few MPs if any would want to explain that to their constituents and would abstain or support the non-payment. That of course would kill any so called ‘Deal’ as proferred stone dead.
November 26, 2018
60,70, ….. bn.
They have had an extra year at 13.5 bn a year.
They demanded 100 bn to bail them out of their pension mess
They demand 10bn plus a year during the transition.
At 20,000 nurses per billion, austerity for the UK if May says yes.
November 26, 2018
Dr Redwood: one has now to ask how people such as yourself can even share the same party as those like the PM who are so intent on being us to ruin. Certainly, the Conservatives can never again win an election if they allow the WA to pass. We the people are FURIOUS with May, Hammond et al. What, Sir, shall be done? Shall we just shrug and admit defeat – for ever? I am in despair.
November 26, 2018
As always, Dr Redwood, you are absolutely right about the way ahead, but we all know that none of it can happen until Mrs May is removed from office.
November 26, 2018
As you have always said, and I am amazed at your patience, the Withdrawal Act 2018 locks the PM into getting primary legislation through Parliament to change the course we are on.
The barney “deal” the PM is selling must not pass Parliament – unless all PM’s have lost the plot.
It would be better if the cabinet got on with preparing the UK for trade on WTO terms with the EU. Which is what a referendum and a general election suggested the UK wanted
It might be a lot stressful for all involved if they would simply do what was agreed.
November 26, 2018
Threats and blackmail terms are already flooding in, fishing rights, Gibraltar, corporate tax rates, climate change, VAT rates, one might say that they are just getting started on these items with the prospects of a lot more demands to come, so big businesses to secure a trade deal with the EU while putting rest UK out of business for good.
November 26, 2018
This Withdrawal Agreement is so bad that one could never seriously trust any politician who supported it with responsibility for safeguarding the future of the UK.
And if a sizeable number or – heaven forbid – a majority of the members of any political party were to vote in favour of that agreement, it would be impossible to make the case for that political party ever being allowed to govern this country again.
Unfortunately, it is the Conservative Party that is likely to be the party supporting May’s withdrawal agreement.
November 26, 2018
Have just heard Mrs May say that we will determine our own Fishing Policy, but it will be a negotiation of allowing others to fish in our waters whilst we fish in their waters. Everything she says is either open to interpretation or up for negotiation where we constantly lose. What a stitch-up!
November 26, 2018
The British public were badly advised in all of this- led astray by ideologues and other naive thinking figures and by a base tabloid press who never missed an opportunity to sneer at the EU institutions. Well we are where we are and we saw yesterday in Brussels where the power lies, we can be under no illusion now that somehow or other we are going to divide and conquer or browbeat them into a cherry picking deal solely to suit ourselves. Messrs Farage and Hannan and friends have seen to that and already set the tone and result is now that we will have absolutely no say in the workings of Europe going forward. In fact little Malta and Cyprus will have more of a say. Our ERG thought they were going to do the devil and get a deal that signalled equal partnership with them-well know we know- an equal partnership- not a chance
November 26, 2018
Watching Theresa May’s Commons speech I notice that once again she keeps referring to things which are only envisaged as potential outcomes from future negotiations in the “jam tomorrow” part of her composite “deal”, the non-binding political declaration, as if they are already fixed in the legally binding withdrawal agreement.
And whereas for a long time she loudly insisted that the free movement of people will end when we leave the EU, March 29th 2019, now instead she repeats that her deal:
“… brings an end to free movement once and for all …”
emphasising the finality of that change – “once and for all” – while carefully avoiding the admission that if it ever happened it would not happen on March 29th 2019.
November 26, 2018
Heard some of the debate earlier today and some of the questions were woeful. Many simply asked a question that had been covered before and Mrs May merely referred to her earlier answer. The more pointed and relevant questions seemed to come from Brexiteers such as our host or from those with a particular interest such as Scots, Irish or perhaps fisherfolk.
One Conservative chap asked what Mrs May meant when she said there could be no Brexit. She completely ignored that part of the question but a short time later Son of Kinnock asked something, probably about a Peoples’ Vote, and she brushed him off. You would think that as an arch Remainer he would follow up on the No Brexit question and say how overjoyed he was to hear it and how did she propose to bring that to fruition.
A lot of them don’t seem to listen to previous questions and it’s just as well they don’t have to ask questions to earn a living.
November 26, 2018
I never thought I would find myself having to consider a peoples vote!! However, my personal ‘swingometer’ has started to twitch. We started the ref because it was democratic. We then voted to leave and that was also democratic. The irony now is that TM has backed herself into such a corner and is openly threatening 17.4m voters with no Brexit? Where is the democracy in that?
I would have paid good money to get Leadsom’s thoughts as she sat on the bench this afternoon (along with a couple of others). I wonder if she’ll be waking up and throwing her arms in the air come Dec 11?
She may well be throwing something else up…
November 26, 2018
Mrs. May’s Withdrawal Agreement will ensure that negotiations and uncertainty will continue for years to come – probably with no end as it will not be in the EU’s interest to conclude a trade agreement.
So anyone who wants Brexit negotiations to end and for certainty to begin should be supporting a “no” (WTO) deal to start end of March next year.
November 26, 2018
Allegedly the number of letters is 46. So assuming Graham Brady is straight, then given the current climate in HoC it would be reasonable anticipate a couple more letters in the coming days.
Not that it really matters, the spineless coward party is finished anyway regardless of whether they get rid of May.
The only way they can hope to save themselves now is to rip up May’s agreement and leave without deal. Humiliating pissants Micron, Barnier, Juncker and Varadkar, and Germany’s Rosa Klebb on the way out might also help’
November 26, 2018
Immediately anyway the UK government should publish its tariff schedule for March 29 2019
=============
Under WTO rules you cannot increase tariffs, or barriers, or even introduce them.
It’s called being bound and it is WTO rules.
Why would you propose breaking a treaty?
November 27, 2018
More WTO myths.
WTO is about encouraging free trade agreements around the world.
Based on the individual nation’s risk assessments you are able to have adjustments to tariffs.
Why would the UK that has always promoted free trade want to introduce barriers?
November 27, 2018
When the EU Commission and some EU national leaders say “there will be no further negotiations”, I expect they are referring to not only the Withdrawal Agreement itself but more importantly the day after the UK has signed this agreement.
This is because there will simply be no incentive for the EU to negotiate anything at all as they will have the UK locked permanently into the SM/CU/ECJ but without any representation and unable to sign any trade deals elsewhere.
Why would they want to lose their £95bn/year trading surplus with the UK and UK import duty receipts or allow the UK to import cheaper goods from the RoW tariff free ?