Today I expect Boris Johnson to be elected Leader of the Conservative party. Tomorrow he will take over as Prime Minister.
He will intensify so called No deal planning and get ready to implement his promise to leave the EU on 31 October.
The media is running the view that he will not be getting on planes to go to see EU leaders asking for a renegotiation. The Cameron/May style of European negotiation travelling as a supplicant to the capitals of Europe did not work for them or the UK. The UK should accept the EU often expressed view that they cannot re open the Withdrawal Agreement. The EU then has to understand the UK cannot sign the Withdrawal Agreement.
Once this has been understood it is then possible to discuss a potential free trade agreement and work on more improvements to trade arrangements for our departure. The EU Brexit officials would be welcome in London for positive talks on mutually advantageous trade arrangements . In the meantime WTO rules, a new lower UK tariff schedule and the WTO Facilitation of Trade Agreement will ensure trade continues.
July 23, 2019
Good logic and sound advice, but will Johnson heed this? I sincerely hope he does.
July 23, 2019
Sir John’s advice is wishful thinking. If BJ makes no attempt to strike a deal with the EU, the result will be a GE. That is, of course, the only sensible way forward, albeit a risky one (though there is risk everywhere as a result of three years of appalling government). But BJ’s position is obviously to renegotiate, and so long as he is engaged in this process, the government doesn’t fall.
For BJ, No Deal is simply a threat used to secure a ‘better’ deal; it is not the intended destination. It remains to be seen whether BJ sees no deal as better than ‘his’ awful, but better, deal… I have my doubts. May took can-kicking to a new level, but BJ’s lust for power, or perhaps more accurately prestige, suggests we may have seen nothing yet. There is no way of achieving No Deal without a GE. But a GE risks BJ relinquishing his new-found position. Unless the EU finally loses patience and/or finally realises it’s better off without the UK, then my money is on another extension. ‘Do or die’ will simply be added to the list of BJ’s disingenuous rhetoric.
The real question for Sir John and his friends is how much can-kicking will they tolerate? My view is that the longer BJ is in power, the greater the strength of support for the Brexit it party in the next GE. Whether that results in Corbyn or Farage as next PM, who can say? That BJ may be the last Conservative party leader of any consequence is a distinct possibility.
July 24, 2019
A beautiful summary of the current position and a read well worth waiting for.
I do not think Nigel Farage will be anywhere near Number 10 post GE. But I also truly believe neither will there ever be another conservative government.
July 24, 2019
You are very kind. Farage’s prospects depend on what BJ does. BJ has the power, or at least the ball is in his court. The greatest danger is that when the GE does come, the Brexit vote will be too evenly split. BJ increases this danger because of his electoral appeal which is seemingly a triumph of style over substance. But honestly, distrust of, and disgust with, all the main parties is such that the GE could indeed be a four way marginal, with the possibility of the Greens getting involved, and obviously the SNP being a big, if limited, factor. Making any prediction with confidence is beyond me. Interesting times.
July 24, 2019
Simeon: “… no way of achieving No Deal without a GE”. Really? There’s Robin Tilbrook’s case for a start. All the parties are in such a mess that I am unconvinced a majority of MPs would vote for a GE this year. Labour are in the throes of getting rid of Corbyn, for example. And Swinson has just said she has no time for democracy.
No, I think Boris’ plan is to deliver Brexit – with the WTO deal plus side deals (misnamed as “No deal”) if necessary – and then go for a GE next year. If Parliament actually stops him delivering a WTO Brexit this year then the blame will be clearly apportioned, and any GE will be fought on that basis. This will scupper the Brexit party as well, because Leaves will vote Tory.
July 24, 2019
There’s Tilbrook’s case for a start and a finish. Even if his case was proven (how much faith do you have in the judiciary?), what would actually happen? Without claiming to have certain knowledge on this, I rather suspect both the EU and the UK would move to rectify a legal technicality. The technical Brexit would be a wrinkle to be smoothed over, in the interests of both parties. I understand how upsetting this might be; Parliament legislated for an exit on March 29th. How dare it change its mind? But that is Parliament’s prerogative. If the people don’t like it, they have recourse to the ballot box.
I also understand the misnomer of No Deal. The difficulty is that there are more than enough Tory MPs that subscribe to it to ensure that the plan you describe is not deliverable in the present Parliament, simply because it would be described by these remainers as a No Deal.
If BJ had set out a proper Brexit stall from the very start, and crucially acknowledged that the only way to deliver a clean and proper Brexit was with a Parliament that supported it, explaining why a GE was necessary to deliver Brexit, then he might have stood a chance. A belated change of tack to this course would not be enough to restore the trust many voters have lost in the Conservative party. Falling into an accidental GE would be even less likely to bring leavers back into the fold.
This is my view. Obviously you have more faith in BJ and the Tory brand. We’ll know soon enough who is closer to the mark.
July 23, 2019
Will he be allowed to by the many Conservative MPs who are clearly acting as traitors to the country, the party and are enemies of the 17.4 million and those many sensible remainer voters who now actually respect the referendum vote?
Rather than those who are just lying that they respect while doing all they can to undermine Brexit.
July 23, 2019
Only 66% why on earth were 1/3 of votes cast for Hunt. He is Theresa the Nightmare Continues Part II.
I am amazed at how brazen all the appalling traitors coming out on TV or resigning to table no confidence motions against Boris (before he has even taken office) are. They see seem very determined to ensure no sensible deal is offered by the EU and to bury the party? Is this their aim?
Boris need a sound chancellor in place, his first act should be to undo the appalling mess that tax to death Hammond has created. He needs to address the pensions muggings, the rip off landlord/tenant taxes, the absurd stamp duty and capital gains taxes and finally to keep the £1 million each IHT tax threshold promised by Osborne many moons ago. Someone who understands that taxes above a certain level raise rather less tax not more and also deter investment & strangle the goose that lays the golden eggs.
I am not convinced that Javid is the man at all (nor English graduate let’s kill private schools Gove). Javid never sounds very bright, numerate or rational to me but perhaps I misjudge him. Mogg or JR see to be the most/only sensible choices.
After the doom and gloom of Hammond we need some ‘can do’ vision in number 11. We finally have it at no 10 or will have in a day or two.
July 24, 2019
Theirmresignations demonstrate graphically that Mayhab and co were never going to leave the EU in the true sense. Only to technically leave and immediately rejoin on worse terms until we changed our minds!
Let us never mention her name or hear from her again unless she is being investigated as part of the dishonest Kitkat policy to deceive the British public.
The Tory govts and Johnson will not have the guts but will act immediately on cries from the left without evidence to sack people lie Sir Roger Scruton and bash Trump without knowing the full facts.
July 23, 2019
Corbyn tweets of Johnson’s speech:-
“It was a like an ill prepared after dinner speech at the local golf club.”
Well is was far more uplifting than anything Theresa May or Hammond have said in three years. Far more uplifting than anything I have heard from Corbyn and Mc Donnall. Those endless pushers of ‘the politics of envy’, magic money tree con trick promises, pushers of identity politics and other economic lunacy.
July 23, 2019
Well well – I didn’t know Jeremy had witnessed so many ill prepared after dinner speeches at the local golf club! I didn’t know he played or that he attended dinners. Seems like he should join a better class of golf club!
July 24, 2019
The Peoples Golf Club. Where all handicaps are equal, but some handicaps are more equal than others.
😉
July 23, 2019
Delingpole gives Johnson a point by point tip on how to make things conservative once more.
July 23, 2019
If Hunt wins will he resign immediately over his total and catastrophic failure over Iran illegally seizing a U.K. ship and refusal to build coalition with US to provide safe shipping?
The good news is that people like Hammond, Mayhab, Duncan, Harrington, Gauke, Greg Clarke, Hunt will be ousted from office. May they never return.
July 23, 2019
Hammond wishes Boris luck and achieving a deal. While, one assumes and under his breath vowing to do everything in his power to ensure the EU have not incentive to offer a sensible one. As he did with dire Theresa May.
July 24, 2019
Clarke is insisting on being sacked (at the H of C). Hope Boris meets him in the public corridors, says you’re fired, and walks past him…
July 23, 2019
#MeToo
July 23, 2019
Agreed. Meanwhile, the hardline Remainers within his own party will plot against him.
Maybe there will be a general election – but if Remainers trigger it they will be well aware it is a double edge sword and they may find themselves no longer in Parliament.
July 23, 2019
If there is a General Election campaign that overlaps Oct 31st, do we still automatically Leave?
July 23, 2019
Well thank goodness the rats are leaving Theresa’s sinking ship. Rather a shame that her ship didn’t sink earlier, but three cheers that her whole abysmal edifice will disappear in short order. The new government can be expected to make mistakes, and doubtless there will be shortcomings and disappointments, but at least we have the prospect of people in charge who know what they are doing, and who believe in Brexit. It is going to be a relief to hear from people who are imbued with optimism and a sense of humour, things that were conspicuous by their absence during Mrs May’s dire term.
July 23, 2019
Good morning
The EU has stated it will only talk about trade once we have left.
The job of the new PM will be to unite the two waring factions of the Conservative Party and those MP’s within it who will not support the new PM and government.
There are a number of things I would like to see the new PM do but, I seem to remember too many PM’s talk a good game at first, only to disappoint shortly thereafter. We shall see.
July 23, 2019
Which is a stupid position for the EU to take, and if it really is a matter of EU law then that simply shows up EU law as an ass.
July 23, 2019
May be so but that is the position.
July 24, 2019
I believe that so far that is only what the Commission claims. Because Theresa May wanted to cuddle up alongside them she repeated that to MPs rather than challenging it in the EU court, when at least it could been made plain to the world what a stupid position it was.
July 24, 2019
Why talk about a trade deal or trade facilitation, when we know they will have little effect on GDP. Instead drop all tariffs to zero, drop corporate tax to zero, loosen employment rules and benefits, shrink govt by half and make the rules of foreign investment easier.
July 23, 2019
‘The EU has stated it will only talk about trade once we have left.’
And Art. 50 states explicitly that a Withdrawal Agreement should be negotiated taking into account the future relationship.
So the sequence is:
1. Leave
2. Agree the future relationship
3. Negotiate Withdrawal Agreement to tie up the loose ends
July 23, 2019
And yet that is not how it has worked out. It lookss like the EU can do what the hell it likes. But the UK has to suffer. Seems a good reason to be in the EU to me. I like to be strong. I dont like to be trampled on. Brexiters seem to like being spanked and whipped. Weird people
July 23, 2019
Pam….I can’t think of one example of Brexiters being spanked and whipped – seems more like the sort of thing the establishment apparently enjoy? Especially at the nation’s top schools.
July 24, 2019
Pam Dyson, But if we stay in the EU solely because we are afraid of the EU, that is an example of weakness, not strength.
July 24, 2019
“So the sequence is:
1. Leave
2. Agree the future relationship
3. Negotiate Withdrawal Agreement to tie up the loose ends”
1. Done: We triggered Article 50
2. Done :A regular 3rd country, no special status
3. Blocking: Our govt agreed a deal but couldn’t get it ratified
4. Pending: Leave without deal
5. Not Started: Attempt free trade deal covering “goods” only
July 23, 2019
It means they will only talk about the future trade after we have left in an orderly manner.
July 23, 2019
Agreed, but are the EU up for it or are they consumed by political point scoring. Time will tell. Meanwhile Hammond and a few accolytes see fit to ignore the referendum result, their party manifesto on which they were elected, and the weather vane of the EU election and Peterborough. How arrogant can these swamp dwellers get. Better he thinks of Porterhouse as the next career move.
July 23, 2019
Hammond is not trying to ignore the referendum result. He is trying to deliver it.
In 2016 the winning Vote Leave campaign promised we would leave the EU with a deal.
Mr Hammond has supported Mrs May’s deal.
He has simply said he will not support no deal. And you have no mandate for no deal anyway.
July 23, 2019
Spot on. Leave.eu explicitly rejected a no deal Brexit! Those pushing for no deal are opposing what was decided in 2016
July 23, 2019
Total nonsense Pam
We all expect a deal.
One will be needed but the Withdrawal Agreement is not a deal.
July 23, 2019
He voted for the possibility of a no deal Brexit:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/07/22/chiming-our-independence/#comment-1039139
Now he is trying to use it as an excuse to stop any kind of Brexit.
Did you see what he told Panorama?
At 0:37 here:
https://order-order.com/2019/07/19/britains-brexit-crisis-panorama-highlights/
Theresa May:
“Our laws will be made not in Brussels but in Westminster.”
Followed by Philip Hammond saying that it was a surprise to see that she chosen “to define Brexit in the hardest possible terms”.
So what did he expect?
That we would leave the EU but still get about half our laws from Brussels, and without any say? That even outside the EU we would still be subject to the EU’s Court of Justice? That we would carry on paying in huge sums to the EU budget?
He has never accepted Brexit, full stop, leave out anything about “no deal” or “October 31st”; he is so far removed from the Tory party membership that he would be much happier with the Liberal Democrats.
July 24, 2019
Leaving the EU but still getting about half our laws from Brussels, without any say, and being outside the EU but subject to the EU’s Court of Justice and carrying on paying in huge sums to the EU budget is perfectly compatible with Brexit – it is Norway’s position, and Norway is most certainly NOT in the EU. Now, if you Leavers had said in 2016 “well, we will leave and have no deal at all with the EU”, you could decently argue for no deal now. But you didn’t. In 2016 you promised us frictionless trade and the exact same benefits as we have now after we leave. Your false promises are catching up with you. Brexit is a shambles, because Leavers have made sure it would be one
Reply I always said the only exit we could guarantee was a no deal which would work fine
July 24, 2019
Henry Carter
Where you totally asleep or did you just have potatoes in your ears all the way through the referendum campaign. Where speaker after speaker, the PM, government ministers ,the BoE , Treasury everyone said if you vote to leave its a vote to leave and trade on WTO terms
What make me laugh about ignorant remainers is this touching belief that trade with the EU is frictionless. Just so you know theres virtually no difference in the paperwork and systems for me to buy and sell stuff in France or in the USA
July 24, 2019
If you had been reading this blog at the time you might have seen me saying that it would be in everybody’s interests for there to be a special trade deal, and the EU treaties would argue for the EU to agree to such a trade deal, but it wouldn’t matter too much if the EU made that impossible. That was my position then and it is my position now, and you should not try to put other people’s words into my mouth. As for other matters, I have never been in favour of simply allowing all the multiple bilateral and multilateral agreements between the UK and the other EU countries to terminate, and I later argued that it was a mistake to refer to “no deal” if that was to be taken to mean just “no special trade” to build on the terms of the existing, and continuing, WTO treaties.
As for “exact same benefits”, nobody said that before the referendum, it was David Davis after the referendum who foolishly provided opponents with that sound bite.
July 24, 2019
You need to read that leaflet Henry and look up the speeches by Cameron and Osborne during the referendum campaign when they made clear what leaving the EU meant.
Again someone says “frictionless trade”.
As someone who has actually exported and imported for years in a manufacturing company please explain what you mean by this latest remainer term.
My experiences of trading are that there is very little difference in dealing with EU nations and the rest of the world when it came to administration, taxation, regulations and bureacracy.
July 25, 2019
Henry Carter, Many of us did argue for the misnamed “No deal”. This is my letter published in the Sunday Telegraph in 2003:
Unfortunately, Christopher Booker’s advice to the Conservatives (Notebook 8th and 15th June) of adopting his policy of free trade in a “true Europe of the nations” but not accepting “political integration” is itself as easily outflanked as the Tories’ policy.
All Brussels has to do is imply or even state that it will agree to no such thing and Mr. Booker’s policy is in tatters. It is a fundamental of negotiation that if, say, Tony Blair wants something from the other party (Brussels) then he will have to compromise. The only way out is to want nothing – that is to walk away from the EU by unilaterally annulling the treaties. Mr. Booker is wrong: the only options, as always, are to accept a federal EU superstate or get out of the EU into the world. There is no third way.
July 23, 2019
Oh come off it Andy.
Hammond is a remain supporter, as was May.
The two central powers over the last three years have done their best to keep us in the EU.
We could have and should gave by now a deal with the EU.But the negotiation tactics by the UK have been dreadful
As any experienced business person will confirm.
I would prefer to negotiate a deal and maybe with different people on the UK side one can be created but it still requires a tiny bit of flexibility from the EU.
If they refuse to budge an inch then the default legal position is leaving on WTO terms and sometime afterwards, offering Europe a free trade deal.
July 24, 2019
I think the big question is how long is “sometime afterwards”? We can offer all we want to the EU, but if they don’t engage its an empty gesture. Personally, I don’t think we will get a deal with the EU for at least a generation. So we are going to be operating on WTO rules for the foreseeable future. I’m more concerned about data equivalency than trade deals. If we don’t get a deal on that we will be up s*** creek without a paddle.
July 24, 2019
Edward 2
The EU has already turned down the proposal of continuing trade on WTO terms only, so this is not an option as you have presented it.
July 24, 2019
Bill Brown, The EU cannot “turn down” trade on WTO terms because the EU is merely a member of the WTO and does not rule it.
July 24, 2019
Well that’s not correct bill
They are signed up to trading using WTO rules and so are we.
So that is the basis on which we will buy and sell with Europe.
Trade will continue unless you are suggesting the EU will try blockading all the ports andcairports.
July 24, 2019
bill brown
Really , you genuinely believe that the EU has ordered BMW to not sell us any cars and has told the whole population of the EU that they cant ever buy another iPhone ? Really
The EU is a MEMBER of WTO and will abide by the WTO rules just as the EU has to do now with all the worlds largest markets that the EU DOES NOT have trade agreements with
Blimey remainers are so delusional
July 23, 2019
Andy
“And you have no mandate for no deal anyway.”
A ‘deal’ with the EU was not an option on any ballot paper in the 2016 referendum.
Therefore, we did not vote for deal.
Then again you would say we have no mandate, because you won’t accept losing the referendum.
You know what that is ?………TOUGH !
Get over it and stop talking a load of twaddle.
July 23, 2019
Andy, Where in the 2015 EU Referendum Act, or on the ballot paper, does it say that Leave is conditional upon getting your undefined “deal”? Did the PM at the time – and leading Remain campaigner – Cameron state that Leave was conditional upon a “deal”? Have you got evidence that, say, a dozen Leave politicians clearly stated in the media that we should Remain if we did not get a “deal”? You have no evidence, and no credibility.
July 23, 2019
You’re, er, “not being entirely factual”. The ballot paper simply said “Leave the European Union”. Both sides in the referendum campaign made it clear that leaving meant leaving the Single Market, the Customs Union, the jurisdiction of the ECJ, and other EU restrictions. You know, taking back control.
If those desires cannot be fulfilled with a Withdrawal Agreement, then the only course of action that delivers on the referendum result is to leave without one.
Jo Swinson today admitted that she wouldn’t respect a second Leave result. Hammond and co are making it clear that they never respected the 2016 one. Why not join your comrades and be honest that you don’t care what the people want, because you believe that your wishes are more important? Surely it would be nice for you to be able to say something new for the first time in 3 years?
July 23, 2019
It is down to the EU. When they are presented with the UK leaving on WTO terms but offering an FTA with a mutually agreed maintainance of the current trading arrangements until the FTA is agreed, that is a deal. If the EU refuse to accept this it is they who have decided that no deal on leaving is the reality. A sensible offer would have been made by the UK. The refusal of the EU to discuss it would mean that they have de facto created no option but no deal. In financial terms the EU would be the big loser. They would be paying the UK a nett £7 billion in duty and then much of their trade with the UK would be subject to competition from the rest of the World. You may not like it Andy, but that is the reality. The WA does not come into it, it is dead. Any merit the odd clause in it might have can be put into a treaty under the Vienna Convention where the EU and the UK are equal supplicants. However not until the FTA is settled assuming the EU are prepared to go down the proposed route. There is no appetite for what I assume to be your position of remaining in the EU and continuing to fund an organisation we have no belief in.
July 24, 2019
We already decided that our future trading relationship with EU will be as a 3rd country with no special arrangements. There is zero chance of the EU agreeing a deal where we keep current trading terms. Its simply not in their interests. Its better for them to rip the bandage off, and reduce the uncertainty. As a result I don’t think we will get a deal with the EU for at least a generation. So we are going to be operating on WTO rules for the foreseeable future. Which is fine. But I’m more concerned about getting a data equivalency judgement than trade deals. I think, however, that our chance of getting one quickly has diminished significantly. Which is a huge risk to large sections of the economy.
July 23, 2019
May’s deal,alleged to have been dictated to her by the Germans, is in effect a re-accession treaty to the EU. So no, Hammond has not been trying to deliver the referendum result. In fact, it has been the polar opposite. Are you Dominic Grieve’s press officer or something?
July 23, 2019
no : you are wrong : the referendum did not promise anything – it was “leave” or “stay” – and 17.4million of us voted to “leave” :: NOTHING was said about any “deal” – THAT is the justification!! and to wit, for NO DEAL – Peter Horscroft
AND Congrats Boris – you did it!! – a UKIP stalwart
July 23, 2019
Ageicola,
And at the same time we see the new LD leader continuing to work against democracy and ignore the people’s vote of 3 years past. This remains another shocking London/SE centric arrogance. I still find it hard to believe Cable’s behaviour and it is continuing under Swinson. Until these past few years I had mistakenly believed the LDs believed in democracy and seeing the heterogeneity of the referendum result and country’s economy would take the opportunity to push for constitutional reform etc., but no, the LDs choose to fight against democracy. It is a disappointing HoC on most sides.
July 23, 2019
Sir John,
It certainly sounds as though Boris will become PM.
Having been somewhat less than crystal clear on his view of the WA during the hustings process, I do hope that he can now give us all absolute reassurance that the putrid WA will be binned completely. There is no need to search for any minute fragment to resuscitate. Doing so will only cloud the picture as far as the EU are concerned. Far better that, at the very outset, they are told we are leaving on WTO terms and will talk about trade once we have left cleanly.
His first actions, and the names of those he gathers around himself (hopefully you included) will, hopefully, give great reassurance to all Brexiteers who wake up each morning still doubting that Brexit will ever actually occur.
I wish Boris well and congratulate him.
July 23, 2019
Agree completely. The WA must not be “disaggregated” ; it must be binned.
July 23, 2019
Agreed, Pominoz. I feel that this is perhaps the only (and most important) cloud hanging over BJ as PM – the fact that he voted for the WA once, when it hadn’t been changed at all from the previous two times (we are told). Why did he think it was worth voting for?
Otherwise – the rest sounds positive. I wish him success too.
July 24, 2019
I agree that we will be leaving on WTO rules. But no need to talk about trade once we’ve left. Better to drop all tariffs to zero, drop corporate tax to zero, reduce regulation and privatise govt services.
July 23, 2019
Boris as PM.
Secure Brexit.
Secure Democracy and Freedom.
Democracy and Freedom and are more important than any ‘deal’
Democracy and Freedom are PRICELESS
Welcome.
Croeso
July 23, 2019
Agree, 100%. What’s the point of economic success when it is punished by the EU in even greater contributions? We need that money in the UK , not for some new loyalty bonus for EU politicians who sell out their own countries. If the EU wants to demonstrate financial acuity, they should stop the monthly migration to Strasbourg.
July 23, 2019
Indeed. Democracy and freedom from the EU but also democracy and freedom for individuals from oppressive taxation and regulations delivered in spades by Blair, Brown, May, Hammond, Cameron and Osborne here at home.
Freedom to choose how we earn and spend our own money please. I see that the chief medical officer and the government’s nanny in chief is to go to take up the position of Master at Trinity College. It does not sound like a very sensible choice to me but it seems they needed to deliver their first female Master doubtless due to PC pressures. Less us hope she does not do anything daft like disinvesting from fossil fuels or certain food companies.
July 23, 2019
I am appalled at the choice. I used to regard the heads of the Oxbridge colleges with some respect; they were frequently distinguished academics. Nowadays, they seem typically to be rank-and-file ex-BBC employees, and not very distinguished one at that, but following the line of political correctness.
July 23, 2019
A few ex- Labour politicians also. What they have in common is being left wing
July 23, 2019
@Hugh Thomas
I agree. Sadly many people in Britain seem to be suffering form Stockholm Syndrome.
July 23, 2019
So True..!
July 23, 2019
They have been lied to, repeatedly, and have had their freedoms and democracy salamy sliced away so that they would not notice.
Not our fault.
July 23, 2019
I wonder how I am not free?
At the moment I have all sorts of rights and freedoms enshrined in law – underpinned by the EU – which I know Tories want to remove. Perhaps though they will reinstate the right for me to dress in a silly red suit and use hounds to rip foxes to shreds.
Currently I have the right to live, work, love, study – bureaucracy free – in 31 other countries. That goes down to 1 after your Brexit. Of course rich people – like the Brexiteer public schoolboy elite can still do it – the rest of us, not so much. A freedom you are stealing from me. Stolen from my generation and my children’s generation by old people.
Then there is the brilliant democratic sight of a prime minister of a country of 65m being elected by 92k – mainly old white people. Democracy for the 0.14% really rocks.
July 23, 2019
Well that’s not right Andy.
I am a bit older than you and before the EU invented itself I travelled all over Europe as a young person.
I lived and worked in several countries with minimal bureacracy.
And who knows,the eventual deal may well continue all your requirements.
Chin up young man.
July 23, 2019
You could already live, work and travel to nearly everywhere on the globe (my family included) before we joined the EEC/EC/EU. It was the sole choice of each host nation. You did not need to be given permission by a supranational organisation to do so. If you were, for example, a thoroughly disagreeable individual from Bucks, then they would be within their rights to refuse you.
Remember that your so-called ‘rights’ can also be removed at the whim of an unelected group of 27, mainly old and white men, in Brussels.
July 24, 2019
As the Trump says, if you anticipate not enjoying life in the UK after Brexit you are free to leave. This assumes you have anything you can offer the EU in terms of intellect, talent or financial self sufficiency that makes you acceptable to them. You can then winge in a range of languages while the rest of us get on with making a success of Brexit.
July 24, 2019
Andy, I thought you said you were far richer than anyone else on here? So you should be able to “do it” – live in the EU. Or was that last year’s script?
And as I have explained to you before the EU, being an artificial political construct, has no rights of its own to give you. Your EU “right” to go and live in the EU means the EU has stolen that right from its member states.
July 23, 2019
Certainly I hope from the get go he stresses our strengths, much discussed here in the past, and ‘negotiates/acts’ from those strengths rather than the ‘please Mrs Merkel can we have’ approach that DC and TM took’. Show the EU our pride.
As an aside we are already seeing a slew of exciting ideas coming from Boris, a very welcome change from the bland centrist pap of before. Please do not let him get subsumed by the blob.
July 23, 2019
I am still hoping that Boris has the wit to appoint Sir John Redwood to the Treasury. I know that you could have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement when Boris did, and struck a deal. From the bottom of my heart I thank you for saving us at the possible expense of your own career.
I’m afraid that Boris, a (failed) Spartan will not want the real thing close to outshine him. He may prove me wrong. I hope he does.
July 23, 2019
Sounds good but will it happen. There should be absolutely no trips to Brussels or any EU capital .
The negotiations should take place in London from now on.
Good luck Boris, the country is behind you.
July 23, 2019
Ian Wragg, Spot on. We must not be the supplicant – it should be a negotiation between two legal equals. And if the EU won’t negotiate, we should just leave.
July 24, 2019
NickC,
Even if we leave we till need to go back and negotiate a long term relationship with our most important trading partner
July 24, 2019
Why should it always be us who has to do the chasing?
The Rest of the World IS our most important trading partner because that is where our future lies. We export more to the RotW and make more money from them than we do with the EU, who currently run a massive £98 Billions Goods Trade SURPLUS with the UK.
Don’t you think that huge figure would encourage them to do a special deal with us to maintain such a huge customer? (Their biggest)
July 24, 2019
Bill Brown, No, there is absolutely no necessity to “negotiate a long term relationship with” the EU.
July 24, 2019
Nick C
Actually there is , we still have a bill to settle for this budget period as just one example
July 24, 2019
The UK has said it is happy to pay any legally owed requirements to the EU.
July 24, 2019
Bill Brown “Settling” a bill with full documentation of liabilities (the EU is yet to produce any audited bill) is not a long term relationship.
July 23, 2019
No negotiations until AFTER we Leave.
July 23, 2019
Only one hundred days to go and if you strip out time for the summer recess then a lot less
July 23, 2019
Being that the majority of Tory mps and maybe most Tory members have voted for Mr Johnson knowing full well his view on leaving the Eu than perhaps the likes of Hammond and his cronies should back Mr Johnson in his decision or are they going to be like the lib/dems and not also believe in democracy
July 23, 2019
Correct, they are in the wrong party and should move to the Liberal Democrats.
Then they should all resign from their seats and fight by-elections to check that their constituents still wanted them as parliamentary representatives.
July 23, 2019
denis…but you are expecting honesty and integrity! I think thats a no.
July 23, 2019
Indeed but so many traitors amongst conservative MPs trying to destroy him, undermine the negotiations, damage the country and bury the party. Let us hope he can deliver.
Meanwhile the director of the Proms (in BBC think lunacy) wants to move a 50/50 gender split for composers, rather like Cressida Dick who wants the Met Police to reflect the population of London. They irrationally think you can push this agenda and yet still select “the best of the best” as Cressida put it. You either select the best of the best or you have other agendas as they clearly do have.
How can these foolish people be so lacking in reason as to think you can have both at the same time. If choosing the best of the best gave you a reflection of the population racial/gender/sexual orientation it would be a one in a many million coincidence.
July 23, 2019
It seems the Proms this year has 33 symphonies by European and Russian composers yet none by a British composer.
July 23, 2019
Time Stanley is surely right in the Telegraph Today:-
Compromising now would be a catastrophe. Boris’s appeal is due to both his personality and his agenda – he can’t afford to sacrifice either.
But will the many deluded traitors in the Grieve/Duncan mode allow this?
July 23, 2019
“But will the many deluded traitors in the Grieve/Duncan mode allow this?” -Lifelogic.
When Gauke is quoted in today’s paper as saying it is important to appeal to voters who might vote LibDem (presumably as opposed to appealing to voters who do vote Conservative.) I suspect allowing anything other than Remain is not on the agenda.
July 23, 2019
Boris should make a big play on the fact that the EU have said they won’t re-open negotiations.
I hope Boris ignores the threats and overtures from the EU and concentrates on a FTA with the USA and other non-EU countries. The EU will be losing our massive contributions. Additional loss of our trade would send them into a downwards spiral.
Once we are out of the EU, and the dust has settled, then negotiate with the EU.
July 23, 2019
Yep !
July 23, 2019
Sir John
Correct me if I am wrong, but the maths in the commons have not changed and Mr Johnson is in the same position as Mrs May. A couple of backbenchers with the support of Bercow will take his legs away. We still have a mainly remainer parliament, though that still bewilders and angers me considering the manifestos. I am hoping that these rebels are petrified of a general election than Boris, as they should be, and will not bring him down. Boris must get us out. It is no good sitting back suggesting as it stands we leave on the 31st. That’s what we did for the 29th March.
July 23, 2019
We failed to exit on the 29th of March because Mrs May made a unilateral decision not to do so. Excuses about the UK not being ready were nonsense. The remainer cabal will never be ready.
July 23, 2019
He’s got a challenge ahead of him and if he falters this country will pay a heavy price.
I believe he has two main aims. Take back this nation from the sclerotic grip of the EU (Germany and France) and smash Labour’s client state and all that goes with it including the dismantling of its Quangocracy and the neutralisation of liberal left, identity politics fascism, stopping the use of immigration as a political and electoral tool, reworking the constituencies and abolishing postal voting to stop fraud
In essence. We want our country back. We want our freedoms back. We are exhausted by minority rights fascism and the oppressive and viral nature of their politics.
If I hear the term ‘racist’ or ‘phobia’ again I swear I shall implode on myself. This form of politics is vile, oppressive and malignant.
New laws to target those who play the race card and all the other phobia cards against their political enemies
It is time for the centre right to hit back against the immoral and malignant left who have done so much damage to this nation
July 23, 2019
There will be no discussion on the UK/ EU future trade relationship until the UK agrees to settle its debts, respect citizens rights and commit to the Irish backstop. You Brits can change your PM as often as you like, you can instal Jofra Archer or even Pep Guardiola if you want, but that don’t change anything – if you renege on the Withdrawal Agreement, then you are on your own. End of story.
July 23, 2019
As you should be aware, Luigi, the WA has not been agreed by the UK parliament and is therefore not ‘agreed’ and is ‘un-ratified’. An agreement is not a finalised agreement until both sides have had approval from all of those involved in the process to sign it off. This, manifestly, has not happened and – in all likelihood – will not happen
The UK has already unilaterally (on several occasions) offered to honour EU Citizens’ rights…the EU has not, with Barnier stating that these rights have to be part of the WA in its’ entirety (he would, wouldn’t he?)
We will settle all debts owed, I am sure of that. However, as JM has previouly stated, the Government has no right or way of just ‘signing off’ an un-audited sum of monies, just because someone asks for it…there has to be an audit-trail as this is Tax payers money. I haven’t heard (yet) of the EU giving the UK Gov’t (or Taxpayer) a full list of these obligations equating to the amount demanded under article 50 rules, but of course, I could be wrong…
No thank you re: the Irish Backstop. End of story.
July 23, 2019
The WA has been rejected by Parliament on 3 occasions
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
We do not have to have a WA. WTO is the default position.
July 23, 2019
What debts?
July 23, 2019
Maybe Luigi has been speaking to his friend (Super) Mario Draghi? He’s a financial genius, allegedly….
July 23, 2019
There will be no question of the UK not settling it’s debts – that of course is not the same as paying whatever the EU demands. Likewise I hope there is no question of the EU not settling it’s debts to the UK – such as the proper value of the UK’S share in the EIB.
The UK is most likely to give a unilateral guarantee on EU citizens’ rights. Let’s hope the EU does the same for UK citizens
The Irish backstop is and has always been a ruse to entrap the UK into giving up any prospect of an independent trade policy, unless NI is to be ripped from the UK against the wishes of its people, in flagrant violation of the Good Friday Agreement.
M Barnier played a blinder getting the UK to sign up to all this in the WA, using Mrs May’s weakness. But I think we will now see he has overplayed his hand.
July 23, 2019
the UK didn’t sign up….She was willing, in fact recommended it, aided by a bunch of traitors- yes traitors. But the UK threw it out 3 times…
July 23, 2019
We voted to be on our own, and not put up with this sort of arrogance.
July 23, 2019
Our debts? Which treaty article imposes an obligation on a departing EU member to pay a penny?
July 23, 2019
We are hardly on our own. There are only 27 of you compared to how many that are not in the EU?
🙂
July 24, 2019
and half or more of the 27 are basket case economies.
July 23, 2019
The EU has stated it will only talk about trade once we have left.
And Art. 50 states explicitly that a Withdrawal Agreement should be negotiated taking into account the future relationship.
So the sequence is:
1. Leave
2. Agree the future relationship
3. Negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement to tie up the loose ends
July 24, 2019
Giles B, TEU Art50 does not require a withdrawal agreement.
July 23, 2019
Well, we’ll see from his cabinet what his prospects are – if the likes of Amber Rudd are in it I fear business as usual.
July 23, 2019
Re “travelling as supplicants” …did Mrs M’s carbon footprint not count?
Are political emissions less carbony than holiday ones? ( Not that I believe any of that manipulative twaddle).
Oh ..I forgot ..it’s the rest of us who have to save the planet.
The corporatocracy ( with help from Extinction Rebellion et al) and the politicians just get on with chopping it down and sucking out its resources.
If Boris takes over… and given recent parliamentary behaviour what could possibly go wrong…I so hope he turns out to be normal and SENSIBLE.
I wonder if he can get out of some of the bizarre uber expensive things Mrs M has signed us up to?
July 23, 2019
So it is to be the Scottish Jo Swinson as leader of the LibDims. Who cares really? I suppose she is not quite as dire as Ed Davey. A party of ever more taxes, every more government, endless expensive green crap, government knows best and B******* to Brexit (and to the majority of the voters who voted for it or who just think he results should be respected). Just like the BBC in fact.
All I want of her party to do is to split pro EU vote with Labour as much as possible.
July 23, 2019
The anti-Liberal and anti-Democratic party (full of green lunacy too) party. I assume that neither the trade discriptions act nor the ASA covers such blatant & gross deceptions?
July 23, 2019
LDs – vote for us to ignore a vote
July 23, 2019
Indeed. With Labour and the Lib Dems having the same policy on the EU that should split their vote nicely.
July 23, 2019
And to split pro EU vote with the SDP in Scotland.
July 23, 2019
SNP!
July 23, 2019
In the long rus, yesterday’s election of Jo Swinson as the new LibDem leader may prove to have been more important. After all we need a party to steer Britain back towards the EU in say ten years from now. 🙂
July 23, 2019
Ms Swinson has now said that should a Second Referendum result in another Leave win, she would not respect the result.
Shades of Violet Elizabeth Bott.
July 23, 2019
PvL
“After all we need a party to steer Britain back towards the EU in say ten years from now”
Oh WE do, do WE ?
I got news for you Son, the EU won’t exist in ten years. And good riddance.
July 24, 2019
Steve,
You obviously have information that nobody else has access to or you are just pretending to make a forecast that nobly else believes about the Eu
July 24, 2019
Bill Brown, You mean like Remain forecasts for the next 15 years?
July 24, 2019
Nick C
this project fear jargon and the Brexit side as well, is passee, my dear chap
July 24, 2019
Not really bill, because the Treasury 15 year gloomy guesswork is still being quoted on the media as proof by remainers who say we will be poorer.
Ridiculous of course.
July 23, 2019
Who’s this “we” that you speak for, Peter?
July 23, 2019
@piglet: “We”, that includes me: The UK has had much too many special deals (opt-outs) already. So better this spanner in the works leaves now. Once it has become a normal country (in 10, 20 years?) it will of course be welcome again.
July 24, 2019
PvL, The UK has had far too few special deals – we paid far too much money and very few decisions went our way, eg the SM. Put simply we want to trade, we don’t want to be part of your EU empire.
July 24, 2019
@NickC: All EU members have paid a mere 1% of their GDP annually. With a larger GDP per capita, the Dutch citizens have always paid more than the British (already before accounting rebates).
Here are some of your previous special opting out deals:
No Schengen,
No EMU,
No Euro,
No Social Charter,
No Charter of Fundamental Rights,
No full Judicial Cooperation
A sizeable financial rebate.
In other words: Too many concessions by the EU.
I expect these exceptions not to be available if the UK ever were to return as an EU member.
July 25, 2019
PvL, Your reply is fundamentally dishonest.
Schengen is a separate treaty (therefore not an opt out) and the UK is effectively partly in it anyway (Eire is not in Schengen either);
UK has an opt out from the EMU, which includes the Euro, so you’ve duplicated for effect;
The UK signed the European Social Charter (CoE) in 1961;
Charter of Fundamental Rights – the UK (and Polish) protocol does not excuse the UK from CFR obligations;
Lisbon Dec 17 states EU law has primacy and compliance is tested by the CJEU, so obligatory judicial “cooperation” occurs.
The rebate does not prevent the UK being a massive net financial contributor – hardly an opt out.
So of all your list there is only one genuine full opt out – EMU. And there are 9 states not in EMU, so hardly special for the UK.
July 26, 2019
@NickC:
– Schengen became incorporated in EU law as from the Amsterdam Treaty of 1999, Britain achieving an opt-out.
– The UK has been allowed to remain in breach of important parts of the (revised) Social Chapter.
– The UK protocol for the charter of fundamental rights is an important opt-out in UK courts.
– EMU and Euro are two opt outs, after all, you could have been in the EMU and not in the Euro.
You can read about the opt-outs in wikipedia: “Opt-outs in the European Union”
1% is nothing massive, even before getting much back in rebate and funding for projects in the UK. Your Brexit set-back will be more than 1%, actually is already more than 1% while brexit is only looming, hasn’t yet happened. (and will it ever? 🙂 )
July 26, 2019
PVL I’m not stepping into your interesting debate with NickC but I do take an interest in “1% is nothing massive”. It is massive, if it wasn’t why can’t Germany and other EU nations make up their shortfall of 1% to NATO?
It is not just the 1% of GDP we pay as you well know, there is EU VAT and tariffs on all the rest of world imports. There are fees, fines and extra top ups we read we are paying all the time, including tax on things the UK don’t tax such as prostitution and drug takers, so the rest of us pay for the bad habits of a miniority that the EU guess contribute billions of extra GDP to tax.
July 26, 2019
@a-tracy:
I believe that countries had promised to reach the 2% defence spending by 2024, not 2019. I believe (but am not sure) that it is not that easy to spend the money much faster on sensible purchases.
If you don’t value the EU internal market and amplifying your influence through collectiveness, ok, maybe even 1% of GDP can seem a lot. For the Dutch situation I’m sure ( our longtime independent bureau of economic policy analysis ( google for CPB and chose the English version) that we gain far more than the 1% GDP we put in.
In trade deals, size matters, and the larger parties benefit. US, China and EU are large in trade deals. The UK is not necessarily small, but only larger in trade deals with smaller countries. Some smaller countries (Australia) may even exploit the difficult situation the UK will be in after the likely no-deal Brexit.
July 23, 2019
Cheeky 🙂
And not mention, bloody optimistic. You really think either the EU or your member states (formerly countries) are going to be round that long ?
Oh Peter, you are funny.
July 24, 2019
Mark B
I don’t know about member states of the EU but of one thing I’m quite sure: The UK will be gone with Scotland and Ireland leaving to leave behind a rump England with about as much influence in world affairs as Liechtenstein.
Even the Presidents daughter Ivanka, believed to be the power behind the throne, knows so little about us that she sent a tweet yesterday afternoon congratulating Boris on becoming the new:
Prime Minister of the United KINGSTON!
You couldn’t make it up!
July 24, 2019
Repeating your nonsense doesn’t make it any less ridiculous Margaret.
England has 85% of the population and 85% of the tax revenues.
Some rump.
The country you mention is the economic size of a small county in the UK.
July 23, 2019
PvL
Neither Swinson or the EU as we know it will be here in 10 years time
July 24, 2019
Talk of the death of the EU is greatly exaggerated. Your prediction is as accurate as a Treasury forecast.
July 24, 2019
Libertarian,
Is this like your so very predictable forecast about Merkel and that UK industry was not building up stocks before the original leaving date for the EU.
Not much of a track record? for he so-called expert
July 23, 2019
It will probably not exist in ten years time. And the EU as well!
July 24, 2019
Jagman 84
There s now more support for the Eu in the general populating in the 27 counties that there has been in the past ten years, so I will questions your prediction
July 24, 2019
The UK certainly won’t – just rump England left.
July 24, 2019
Rump England…quite ridiculous comment again.
England if left on it’s own would be still one of the world’s most powerful nations.
July 24, 2019
Edward 2
For how long, if we continue where we are going?
July 24, 2019
Well who knows Bill.
With a good positive attitude, good leadership, some free trade deals offered and decent taxation policies we could develop nicely.
You seem to gave no confidence in the ability if the UK to thrive.
I do not.
July 23, 2019
Far more likely that the nearly every country will have left by then.
July 24, 2019
Lifelogic,
Pure nonsense
July 24, 2019
Bill Brown,
Pure nonsense
July 23, 2019
If she’s the best you’ve got, then you’re in serious trouble; the woman’s (not very good ed)
July 23, 2019
Ever hopeful, but I think you will need to find another banker for your democratically wanting gathering. My prediction is that the EU will be subject to much change in the next ten years. Whether this is politically evolutionery or the product of political upheaval I know not. I can say however that the UK should not be anything more than a trading partner.
July 24, 2019
Why even that. Lets throw our lot in with US instead.
July 23, 2019
hilarious- fat chance.
July 24, 2019
PvL Why would a Party that call themselves ‘democrats’ want to be ruled by an unelected and unaccountable cable of foreigners based in Brussels? And who can trust a Party that swore to abide by the people’s decision in 2016 and then reneged on it?
Here is their old Champion telling us about democracy in the UK and how he believed Mr Farage was not a lover of democracy! Lord Ashdown on TV
July 23, 2019
The British people ought to be prepared for the Evil Empire spurning “mutually advantageous trade arrangements” and similarly be prepared for no trade deal with the USA. The government would do well to explain that trade deals are not necessary and moreover can be harmful.
July 23, 2019
The damage that May did to the country, the economy and parliament by extending Brexit beyond 29th March is enormous and she will never be forgiven for that act of treachery.
Boris’s task has been made a hundred times more difficult. Your strategy, Sir John, is absolutely right and he needs to send a note to each head of state and the EU negotiating team stating that the WA is dead and buried and that it is pointless to refer to it.
May had no intention of leaving and the EU knew it. Now they must understand the opposite and reach a sensible agreement on trade. I believe Boris can do it
July 23, 2019
Well said.
It’s all pretty straightforward and not “complicated” as many Remainers have led us to believe.
July 23, 2019
Leaving the EU is not complicated at all. You just leave.
In fact, the only bit which is at all tricky is leaving the EU whilst retaining pretty much all the benefits of EU membership.
Unfortunately, this is pretty much what Vote Leave promised in 2016.
If they’d have been honest and said – yes you can have Brexit but you will all get permanently poorer, you will lose rights and freedoms, our country will be permanently diminished, our union will be on peril and there are literally no
up-sides then we could easily have delivered on their Brexit.
But then if Vote Leave had promised that sort of reality Brexit – rather than their fantasy versions – then they would not have won in the first place.
Awkward.
July 24, 2019
Andy, You mean like the rest of the world? Which you seem to overlook. All the time. Awkward.
July 23, 2019
It really is quite simple and logical as you say. Parliament will not accept the Withdrawal Agreement and the Commission will not amend it, positively forbidding any attempts in granting the second extension. Was there any point in the extension?
Eire in partnering the No Deal forced upon the UK are now fearful for their economic situation. In reconsidering the back stop it will not get the WA through Parliament. The backstop was only one of the many pitfalls in the 585 page document. It could be said Barnier and his team overplayed their hand with Colony status.
July 23, 2019
The new leader’s first priority must be to win the rhetorical battle over the merits of leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement.
Too many leave supporters have been bombarded by politicians and the media with doom laden predictions that our world will stop turning unless we sign a withdrawal agreement or stay in the EU.
Those campaigning for us to remain as a supplicant to the EU are emboldened the the public’s apprehension over this matter. To shut them down their claims need to be not only refuted but shown to be the poorer choice.
PS just heard Jo Swinson on Today. Lacks any class whatsoever
July 23, 2019
Narrow Shoulders
“PS just heard Jo Swinson on Today. Lacks any class whatsoever”
To me she comes across as a typical Liberal feminist activist, and a waste of space.
July 23, 2019
Waste of space? – apparently she has done some PR for a local radio station.
July 23, 2019
Narrow Shoulders
“PS just heard Jo Swinson on Today. Lacks any class whatsoever”
In comparison to Boris I suppose?
July 24, 2019
Funny you mention her. 52 percent win on Brexit is too small you say . She got 45 percent in her election. What do you make of that? Another election should be held surely.
July 23, 2019
Of course we hope only good things for our new PM, but he certainly should not imitate the Cameron/May style of European negotiation travelling… They never set out to achieve anything for the UK – the repeated trips were a farce worthy of Brian Rix.
We hope that the new PM will be able to contain Parliament in their treachery while ignoring the EU so that we can leave by default.
We know Boris can be swayed by a pretty face, so I trust the new EUCP will not have an effect on him (:
July 23, 2019
Boris is taking the right approach to getting a sensible arrangement with the EU, but it is very late in the day. This is certainly the approach that should have been taken three years ago! Including minor things like telling the EU that some of the meetings at least should be in London. Let’s see whether it can be salvaged. I’m doubtful. I think we will get an extension at the invitation of the EU & put through by parliament conditional on another referendum. Good luck to Boris but let’s see.
July 23, 2019
Yes, Sir John, this is how the Brexit Party would handle matters.
This is how any self-respecting Independent Country would handle matters.
This is the simple common-sense approach that any Leave voter would expect.
But then we have the Tory Party.
Not a hope in Hell.
July 23, 2019
I just took a look at the video of this afternoon’s Westminster event “Exiting the European Union Committee” and the opening discussion was asking how long would it take to enable another referendum!!
P L E A S E …. do these people ever give up? They’re rather persistant.
July 23, 2019
Why is Project Fear being so noisey right now?
Is there a drive for another vote – like in Ireland when, after scaring the living daylights out of the poor folk there, they were given another chance to come to the ‘right’ decision.
July 23, 2019
No you got that wrong. The Irish people were listened to, their concerns noted and changes were made. Then they voted again. That’s what TRUE democracy is all about.
July 24, 2019
Who was it who baled out the Republic? The horrible UK. That’s what friendship is about, not trying to punish your one of your biggest customers and one of your biggest bank-rollers for over 40 years.
July 23, 2019
This all seems reasonable, bearing in mind that voters are keeping “no deal”
on the table in the form of the Brexit Party.
July 23, 2019
Exactly!
July 23, 2019
I look to Boris to set out his stall with plain speaking. We have become frustrated to the nth degree during this last 3 years of so-called leadership. I hope he will call a spade a spade, and tell it like it is, we have endured deceitful objectives for too long in the guise of ‘Britain’s interests first’.
Come out fighting Boris. You can do it, your party needs you, the country needs you – get on with the job – root and branch cutting required.
July 23, 2019
I like the expression that EU Brexit officials will be welcome in London and I trust that Sir John knows this is what Mr Johnson thinks and intends to implement; the change being on their needing to come here. Maybe if this is true for the EU it will be replicated in other spheres and soon.
It is time we got off our knees. We need to have confidence restored and policies of self reliance and independence.
July 23, 2019
And additionally let’s have Sir John as Chancellor.
July 23, 2019
What you would like is to see the EU come with cap in hand to London- stupid idea that only the deluded dream about
July 24, 2019
So the UK going cap in hand to Brussels was a sensible idea, in your opinion?
July 23, 2019
Undeniably the right strategy is “my door is always open”.
In reality nothing of consequence will happen and the only way to achieve a no deal exit is for a general election to be called early October, parliament dissolved, we exit by law on 31st and the new government in November is committed. It also is the only chance to save the CP.
July 23, 2019
A worrying prediction – Conservative remainers jump ship to LDs, Vote of no confidence, Corbyn forms coalition of the unwilling and asks EU for extension for 2nd referendum.
July 23, 2019
There seems to be confusion between the Withdrawal Agreement and a trade deal. The WA was never a trade deal. The EU rules are clear that we cannot negotiate a trade deal until we have left. We were always going to leave without a trade deal. The remainers seem to want to obscure this fact. Leaving on WTO rules will not stop trade with Europe. Some products will increase in price others will fall. What it will do is put us in a very strong position to negotiate a free trade deal with many countries around the world. What the Government has to put in place is protection for those businesses that might suffer in the short term. Play the long game rather than tying our hands in future negotiations. Bin the WA.
July 23, 2019
Well said Christine.
I sometimes believe some haven’t read the analysis from Sir John’s and others as to what the Withdrawal Treaty was about. Never about Trade, never about Cooperation. Just about who was to stay in charge of the UK and it wasn’t the people of the UK
July 23, 2019
Exactly! I have always argued that in the mid to long term the UK, not the EU, held the cards.
July 23, 2019
The EU has stated it will only talk about trade once we have left.
And Art. 50 states explicitly that a Withdrawal Agreement should be negotiated taking into account the future relationship.
So the sequence is:
1. Leave
2. Agree the future relationship
3. Negotiate Withdrawal Agreement to tie up the loose ends
July 24, 2019
Giles B, No, TEU Art50 does not say a WA is required.
July 23, 2019
You rightly say the WA is not trade deal. The remainers along with the media have been allowed to propagate the no deal myth hopefully the new administration will spell it out and correct this misnomer. The WA is capitulation to the EU’s demands, I just hope there is no fudging or tweaking to get it through.
July 24, 2019
“What the Government has to put in place is protection for those businesses that might suffer in the short term.”…Can I ask why? Business that can’t survive under WTO trading conditions should be allowed to close. Government should not distort trade by supporting businesses that are not competitive.
July 27, 2019
I’m talking about the gap between trading under any damaging WTO tariffs and us signing trade agreements. I’m not suggesting permanent subsidies unless they are for security purposes.
July 28, 2019
My point is that Government should not distort trade by supporting businesses even for security purposes. This is not what a global free trading nation does
July 23, 2019
I look forward to Boris becoming PM and hope he will start to deliver what has been promised for so long – get us out. We’ve listened to enough lies and spin and now want to see action. We voted democratically to come out and have had to wait over 3 years now. Bring it on. Boris must surround himself with others that truly believe in democracy and believe in our country. If he doesn’t then we know where we stand.
July 23, 2019
I`m sure everyone worried about how to deal with clients and suppliers will be so relieved. ”
Relax ..relax guys we have a plan and that plan is ..hope something turns up…..” *High fives *
July 23, 2019
Newmania
Unlike you those of us who you know sell things to people based in other countries and who buy things from overseas suppliers know exactly what we are doing.
The far more damaging thing than no deal is this god awful governments ludicrous reverse VAT .
ps Worked out how to open an office in a EU country yet?
July 23, 2019
If we could export guffawing, pointless Latin quotes and attempts to be funny then Boris would make us all multi-millionaires – just like the people who bank rolled Brexit.
July 23, 2019
Remain groups spent nearly £6 million more than Leave in the campaign. That’s not including the £9 million spent on the remain-biased Government leaflet, so I’d steer clear of claiming that the result was bought by big money. Your arguments were bogus, bordering on barefaced lies. Fortunately, sufficient voters saw right through them. It’s a joke that you persist with such tactics. Awkward….
July 24, 2019
You are already a millionaire you have informed us. Have you put your 30 employees on the dole yet?
July 24, 2019
That was “Andy’s” script last year.
July 23, 2019
I believe the first thing Boris should do is release the Iranian Tanker. Iran has every right to supply its allies. They are not in the EU and we are not at war, not yet anyway. Secondly why are the British the policing arm of the EU. With minimal support from the EU we should release it a soon as possible.
July 23, 2019
This is an extract from Not4EU’s (thank you, Not4EU) concise comment on today’s BrexitFacts4EU website – relevant to today’s article here:
‘…We’re sick of hearing about a ‘deal’, with the meaning fudged to deceive (once again) the public. The only ‘deal’ that we are interested in is a TRADE deal. As repeatedly pointed out, a trade deal can ONLY happen once we’ve left, & whilst it was possible that the EU could have prepared & set this up, ready for implementation, they didn’t in over 3 years.
The only ‘deal’ on offer prior to our leaving is about our sovereignty, territory & control of our country by laws which conflict with our own habeas corpus. In other words, any non-trade ‘deal’/WA is to give away (again) the independence that was voted for in the referendum. That was definitely NOT what was voted for….’
July 23, 2019
JR. Is there any sign of the secondary legislation to implement the https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-customs-tariff-establishment-eu-exit-regulations ?
BTW. The following is a classic example of a laissez faire, neoliberal, “leave it to the free market” government failure.
“… Unfortunately we cannot currently support your smart meter. This is because not all smart meters are compatible with all energy suppliers. Your meter will operate as a traditional meter and therefore we’ll contact you to ask for a meter reading. If we’re unable to obtain a reading from you we’ll send you an estimated bill. If your smart meter was installed by another energy supplier, your in-home display will continue to show your energy consumption. Unfortunately your energy costs will not be displayed.”
SMETS1 meters like mine, are still being installed. Supposedly they can be upgraded to SMETS2 and made DCC compatible. If you are going smart, make sure you get the correct meters.
July 23, 2019
“BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg has suggested some of the 160,000 Tory members that have voted who weren’t sure who to back have now sided with Mr Hunt”. How does Laura know this? This suggests someone in the vote-counting work is leaking confidential information.
I hope that whoever is elected isn’t rushed into anything other than allocating their cabinet positions, no running off to the EU, just take a breather, read everything. No big announcements. Just lots of positive messages and someone really calm, experienced and respected in the Foreign Office.
July 23, 2019
turns out she was just making stuff up.
July 23, 2019
really ? A top media Remain protaganist employed by the BBC making stuff up? Surely not?
July 23, 2019
Elected as leader of the Conservative Party. First priority is strengthening the governance of the Conservative party. In particular, MPs elected on the basis of the Conservative Party have to support the manifesto. If not they should resign from the whip and their parliamentary seat. May be difficult to impose retrospectively but should be automatic going forward. Without sufficient control of the party to maintain alignment with the manifesto no leader can survive.
As a secondary effect of being elected as leader of the Conservative party, Boris becomes Prime Minster. He still needs to abide by the first priority.
July 23, 2019
Well. maybe, or maybe events in August 2019 will unfold along similar lines to those in December 2017, when the UK Prime Minister surrendered to a jumped-up Irish Prime Minister rather than standing up to him and publicly ridiculing the absurd, extreme and intransigent position his government had adopted.
From November 26th 2017:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/11/26/the-irish-border-with-northern-ireland/#comment-903216
“On the TV this morning it was stated that the UK government is “desperate” to move on to trade talks, but this would be vetoed by the Irish government unless the UK government committed to keeping the UK in both the Single Market and the Customs Union.”
“Whatever delusions the Irish government may entertain there is no political possibility of the UK remaining in either the Single Market or the Customs Union after leaving the EU, so there is now clearly no point in the UK even trying to negotiate any “special and deep” trade deal with the EU. And of course there was never any justification for paying the EU a bribe just to get trade talks started.
So we should now say that rather than kowtow to the stupid destructive intransigence of the EU we will fall back on WTO trade rules and only seek agreements on the practical or technical aspects of continuing trade.”
From December 4th 2017:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/12/04/two-views-of-brexit/#comment-905007
“I’ve just heard the Irish Foreign Minister speak against “the re-emergence of a border on this island”. It was in a video embedded in this article:
https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1204/924743-brexit/
which is headed with a picture of signs at that border which must not re-emerge, and he then went on to say that at present this non-existent border which must not re-emerge is helping to bring people together rather than dividing them.
I think that either he’s very muddled or he’s trying very hard to muddle others, and I think I prefer the clarity of his subordinate, the Europe Minister, who told Sky News:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/12/02/the-irish-border/#comment-904608
“We have been very very clear from day one, there cannot be a physical border and that means ruling out cameras, that means ruling out technology, that means ruling out anything that would imply a border on the island of Ireland, it is not an option for us”.
As the Irish government is sufficiently crazy to rule out “anything that would imply a border on the island of Ireland”, when it is self-evident and undeniable that there already is a border, and moreover an international border, for all kinds of agreed purposes, legal and practical, it really seems utterly pointless and a complete waste of time and energy to try to negotiate any kind of agreement with them.”
July 23, 2019
The EU will wait to see if Boris will actually get the UK out of the EU on 31st October. Why should they discuss anything until after we have left?
If Article 50 is law in the UK can it be overturned by Parliament?
July 23, 2019
As Sir John our host has often said on this blog site. It is a EU Law, it requires the EU to overturn it.
July 23, 2019
It cannot be overturned by parliament as it is EU Treaty Law and is above UK law. The irony of Remainers using UK law to stop EU law so that that can keep EU law is list on them.
July 23, 2019
Will Mr. Johnson explain to the nation all the reasons as to why the Withdrawal Treaty is unacceptable and not simply because of the backstop clause ?
July 23, 2019
I do hope we do not have to view another PM desperately flying around and licking windows in hope of a deal.
No one voted to brexit to get a trade deal with the EU, we voted brexit for trade deals with the rest of the world. If the PM directs the governments energies to those ends hopefully even using GATT 24 to get early benefits I’m sure the EU trade will resolve itself.
As for the WA the best approach would be to say that it required too much expensive bureaucracy, a new simpler free trade agreement without EU control should therefore be free.
On a different note I see Mays No 10 has claimed negotiating the withdrawal agreement is one of her successes! When the bar is set that low anything can be a success I suppose, really looking forward to seeing a fresh government.
July 23, 2019
Dear Mr. Redwood,
I can do no better than provide a quote from today’s Brexit Central website…..
“If Boris Johnson wants to keep his promise to leave the EU ‘come what may’, and wants to get a deal, then the only chance he’s got is asking for a basic free trade deal. Playing around with Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement would not only look terrible to sceptical voters and boost the Brexit Party no end, it would give Parliament the chance to derail Brexit entirely.”
I sincerely hope that you are right in your prediction of how events might turn out. However, I can’t help but think that if Mr. Johnson does ask for a FTA, as previously offered by Mr. Tusk, then the ever-helpful EU will say ‘sorry that was then, this is now’. I just can’t see the EU allowing the UK to walk off into the sunset with a FTA nestling in Mr. Johnson’s pocket. Not unless they really have had enough of Brexit and want to get on with their political union project.
July 23, 2019
What you are saying is, exactly what Tim Martin has been saying well before brexit referendum. Even a single celled creature would understand this is the best way to proceed.
July 23, 2019
If the eu changes its mind and wants to talk about a decent withdrawal agreement (I don’t think they will) they can come and talk here I expect, we have a few meeting rooms they can use. No need for our new PM to go to them, it gives them a feeling of superiority which they are not entitled to.
July 23, 2019
I would agree with your conclusion as to the outcome, if l thought there were any logic behind the EU’s position. As it is, I think they are guided solely by a sort of religious fervour for the EU ‘project’. Nothing must stand in its way and all doubters are heretics. I therefore find it difficult to see such a benign outcome. I hope I am wrong though.
July 23, 2019
Scruton reappointed….
Joy of joys. Made my week
A thoroughly decent and moral man who was slandered by this PM and her filthy, grotesque liberal progressive pygmies
July 23, 2019
I hope Brokenshire gets the chop. He deserves it.
July 23, 2019
Whoever becomes the next PM must stick with the ‘decision’ that May’s ‘surrender’ deal is dead.
The PM needs to get past the Remain biased, negative MSM to sell the WTO option to the wider electorate. A good start would be to further publicise the following ‘plan’:
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/the-proposal-of-a-temporary-wto-agreement-can-reshape-the-brexit-debate/?mc_cid=0be95f1cb7&mc_eid=1de2ce3181
July 23, 2019
Sir john
All this talk by Mother Teresa about a deal or agreement was just a fudge to dilute the seriousness of what we were expected to enter into.
It is not an agreement it is a treaty and the power involved in that process is massive. A lot of the occupants of the Hoc. Do not have the faintest idea into the full implications of what they were expected to pass. I just hope that the new PM speeks and use s the correct termalogy and tells the electorate it is what it is. The days of playing mind games with the electorate are over. We have had enough of these people pissing down our necks and telling us it is raining.
July 23, 2019
At last!
Three years of of daily shame at the antics of May’s govt now come to an end and GB can regrow it’s backbone and face the world with our justifiable pride instead of sniveling acceptance of abasement and servitude.
Boris must now fulfill his promise, execute the Brexit described in the referendum letter and thus save the CP.
Be in no doubt that failure to respect democracy will unleash a BP landslide.
Once that is completed we will need to have another conversation about climate change and the propensity for Party members in both houses who promulgate this scam, enriching themselves at the expense and winter suffering of the poorest and destroying jobs in the car industry.
July 23, 2019
JR
When you leave a club you don’t dictate the rules.
Wouldn’t you be better employed to fight for true democracy in this country so that a small coterie of establishment figures don’t have the power to install a prime minister and the other 98% of voters will have no say in the matter until the next general election?
A news flash on my computer has just informed me that:
“Boris Johnson CROWNED new Tory leader.”
Says it all – we get prime ministers that are ‘crowned’.
And you people complain about a lack of democracy in the EU which is not a country but a trading bloc.
July 23, 2019
Due to the electoral system that most of the Conservative party are so beloved of, most of those 98% will have absolutely no say at the next general election as well, living, as they do, in safe seats.
It is also interesting that 16 and 17 year olds were able to vote in the Conservative leadership election given the Conservative party’s general view on 16 and 17 year olds voting at any other time.
July 24, 2019
I don’t believe there will be any such thing as ‘safe seats’ next time Peter, the Brexit Party and resurgent Lib Dems could produce a shock anywhere in England as the SNP did in Scotland.
July 24, 2019
There are always safe seats. The current system is designed to allow whichever are the two biggest parties (which varies in different parts of the UK, and the SNP are one of the two in Scotland) to ignore vast swathes of the electorate and focus their efforts on a few marginals. It will remain ever thus until FPTP is replaced by a system where everyone’s vote carries equal worth.
Having lived in various safe seats and just one marginal in my life, the difference in effort and focus is noticeable. In 2017, from the big two parties, one sent a stock, party HQ leaflet and the other didn’t bother sending anything at all. Neither of them bother making any real effort for my vote because both know that changing my vote is a waste of their time as it can make no difference to the outcome of a general election.
July 24, 2019
I lived in safe seat.
We were largely ignored by the sitting MP
Then suddenly it changed to a marginal that then elected some other party.
They are only safe so long as that is what the majority of voters want.
July 24, 2019
There should be no such thing as a safe seat anywhere and Parliament should be representative of the electorate. It is possible to have both of these while maintaining elements of the current system that people like (the constituency link and the ability to vote for individuals rather than parties).
July 24, 2019
Isn’t that up to the voters in a constituency?
It is like saying it us unfair the Beatles or Beethoven keep being popular.
What you are saying is that you want everyone to vote like you do.
Say 100% agreed with you and created a safe seat.
Happy then Peter?
July 25, 2019
No. I want representation to reflect the electorate. Why do you seem to find that such an objectionable idea?
In various places I’ve lived I’ve had 100% representation due to the FPTP system. Again, it wasn’t representative of the area and I wanted it to change.
What I want is PR, specifically STV. It can be introduced locally in England and Wales without changing anything about local governmetns structures or ward structures (they already have this in Scotland and Northern Ireland), and it wouldn’t take much effort to introduce it for Westminster. You just group the current constituencies into clusters of 3-5 and elect multiple MPs using STV.
July 26, 2019
Peter, I hear what you are saying but didn’t Labour think it had a swathe of safe seats in Scotland that it lost to the SNP?
There have been some big safe seat losses causing upsets of the years I think of Chris Patten, Michael Portillo, Ed Balls.
July 23, 2019
When did any one in the UK ever vote to transfer UK Sovereignty to a Foreign Power?
As you have just seen Leaders of Gangs are selected by Gang members. Just as to be in a Gangs upper ranks(MP’s) you first have to be selected by the Gang leader.
Government by the people for the people doesn’t exactly translate in practice.
July 23, 2019
Do trade union leaders crown the Labour elite? Miliband vs Miliband – no contest.
July 23, 2019
“Says it all – we get prime ministers that are ‘crowned’. ”
It certainly says a lot about the poor quality of reporting. To phrase it more accurately, Boris Johnson received 66% of the vote in an election that took place under the rules of the party and was duly appointed.
July 24, 2019
Al, I believe its also true to say that Boris Johnson got the support of 51.1% of the elected Conservative MPs in a run-off competition with the next leading candidate ‘Hunt’ polling 24.6%. The Conservative MPs had a large choice of candidates (including Remainers) that they whittled down to their two favourites before the vote even went to the membership.
July 23, 2019
Same election system in Labour and Lib Dems.
Brown was appointed.
If the Lib Dems were the majority government then Jo Swinson would now be PM.
July 23, 2019
All parties now select their leaders by vote of members. And – due to calls from LibDems and other leftists a few years back – we now have fixed term parliaments.
July 23, 2019
oh Margaret, do get over it. Consult your Dr (if you can get an appointment after Hunt’s wonderful negotiation with the NHS). All this stress is not doing you any good.
July 23, 2019
“When you leave a club you don’t dictate the rules”.
The EU are welcome to their rules. However, they should not expect us to obey them after we have left. Their ‘rules’, routinely ignored by Germany, (new Lignite-fuelled power stations?) are the reason that the EU has an ever shrinking percentage of world trade. Even more reason to leave the evil empire.
July 23, 2019
Have just heard the lovely Laura Kunsberg on the television saying that Jeremy Hunt could well pip Boris to the post. I thought “We’re doomed in that case”. It’s like waiting for the guillotine to fall.
Off topic. Two weeks ago I was buying strawberries from Scotland in my local supermarket in Shropshire. The packaging was proudly telling us they were Scottish strawberries and they even had part of the saltire on the packet. Contrast that with those I purchased yesterday.. The packet had a union flag on it and said British produced. When I took a closer look they were grown and packed in Kent. Why in God’s name do we never get anything in the supermarkets proudly boasting made or gown in England? Something really has to change.
July 23, 2019
My sentiments exactly. I asked in one of the supermarkets I use why the English flag was not shown on English cheeses when the Welsh flag was on Welsh cheeses. He pointed to the Union flag.
Things must change.
July 23, 2019
Fed Up: because when the Scots or the Welsh or the Irish do something like that it is to celebrate their pride in their homeland and history.
Were the English do it, they would demonstrate that they are vile, populist neo-Nazis. And probably racists and homophobes.
I hope that clarifies matters for you.
July 23, 2019
On English produce: well said. I was only musing the other day how one used to see “made in England” on a variety of products.
I’ve remarked on here before that in the 1950s/60s we were told (at school) that there was no such nationality as “English”– official forms etc could only cope with “British”.
England– the country that date not speak its name.
July 23, 2019
Should read “dare not”! (Slip of the digit.)
July 23, 2019
Something has changed. You noticed the deliberate discrimination against England and the English. Now keep banging on about it until the noise of our disapproval is herd.
July 23, 2019
Can we hope that now Boris has been confirmed as the new Tory leader, he will be stronger with Brussels than the two previous Tory PMs have been and always put Britain and the Britsh people before any other consideration?
This country has not had a proper British leader since Mrs. Thatcher and I hope Boris will match her tenacity and strength for getting the right things done for this country.
July 23, 2019
I’m not a fan of Boris Johnson, but I found this highly amusing:
https://order-order.com/2019/07/23/tough-day-boris-hating-punditocracy/
“Today is a tough day for journalists and columnists who will never be as successful as Boris, particularly the ones that wrote him off.”
Follows a series of examples …
July 23, 2019
I saw that earlier. A wonderful put-down of all those anti-Brexit reporters.
I was disgusted by reports that out-of-a-job Hammond, from the backbenches, will still continue his fight to destroy the decisions of the British people because he does not believe we are clever enough to decide for ourselves what is best for us and our Country. How crass and how lowly can he get? He is totally unfit to be called British and I trust his constituents will deselect him for being anti-democracy.
July 23, 2019
Why or why do you keep talking of a free trade deal. As many have said, free trade deals are of marginal benefit. Instead, drop all tariffs to zero, corporation tax to zero, start privatising government services, get ride of gold plated regulation and decrease spending on the military.
Next up a complete over-haul of our democratic system, first recognition that the peoples of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland comprise the ultimate authority of their nations and are the source of all political power; the foundation of our democracy shall be the counties (or other local units as may be defined), which shall become constitutional bodies exercising under the control of their peoples all powers of legislation, taxation and administration not specifically granted by the people to the national government; the executive shall be separated from the legislature. To that effect, prime ministers shall be elected by popular vote; they shall appoint their own ministers, with the approval of parliament, to assist in the exercise of such powers as may be granted to them by the sovereign people of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland; no prime ministers or their ministers shall be members of parliament or any legislative assembly; No law, treaty or government decision shall take effect without the consent of the majority of the people, by positive vote if so demanded, and that none shall continue to have effect when that consent is withdrawn by the majority of the people;No tax, charge or levy shall be imposed, nor any public spending authorised, nor any sum borrowed by any national or local government except with the express approval of the majority of the people, renewed annually on presentation of a budget which shall first have been approved by their respective legislatures; Parliament, once members of the executive are excluded, must host a constitutional convention to draw up a definitive codified constitution for the peoples of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It shall recognise their sovereign status and their inherent, inalienable rights and which shall be subject to their approval
July 23, 2019
“Mr Barnier tweeted: “We look forward to working constructively with PM Boris Johnson when he takes office, to facilitate the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement ”
He still doesn’t get it, it seems.
July 23, 2019
O i think he does. You no-dealers should watch Boris very closely. He isnt going to give you what you want. He has already been briefed by Barnier. Mrs may’s deal will be tweaked, and then ratified
July 23, 2019
Somebody should point out to the world just how stupid he is being.
July 23, 2019
Here’s the ticking clock / bomb M Barnier should be thinking about: unemployment in Greece 18%, Spain 14%, Italy 11%, France 9%. And concentrated among youth – threatening a lost generation. Also Debt / GDP in Greece 180%, Italy 130%.
July 23, 2019
On the website brexitcentral.com today is an excellent and positive article written by Alastair MacMillan: ”Project Fear’s incredible No Deal warnings are becoming like a cracked record”.
July 23, 2019
You are right, no travelling across Europe asking for anything. They will ask, what do you want? Boris should say a free no tariff trade deal. They will ask what will you give to us? A free no tariff trade deal, that’s fair and equable is it not?
He could also pursue a fair share of joint assets, he is going through a divorce himself and knows how that works. Alimony? No.
July 23, 2019
You can have a no tariff (on goods) trade deal.
Where are you putting the Irish border? That is literally all you have had to decide for 2 years.
Where is it going?
July 23, 2019
Where it is now.
July 23, 2019
Exactly where it is now as a duty and VAT border. The backstop was a May invention to block Brexit and desperado’s like you fell for it! The Irish have no intention of having a physical border. Neither do the UK. Do you fancy the job if you feel that it is vital?
July 23, 2019
There will be no FTA talks without the WA and an orderly exit. If you don’t understand this then afraid it will have to be demonstrated to you, first hand
July 23, 2019
That ‘s OK hm
We just leave.
July 23, 2019
The new prime-minister is not bound to all of Mrs. May’s red lines. If Mr. Johnson proves pragmatic instead of religious, he may push the DUP to accept some checks in the Irish Sea until a technical solution will be found and accepted by all sides. That way he would solve the infamous backstop.
July 23, 2019
Sorry Peter not a chance, the DUP will never agree. They are the original flat earthers
July 24, 2019
@hardlymatters: If there is a chance of an early election, there will also be a chance of forming a new government without DUP suport.
July 24, 2019
PvL, Technically there is no difference between a sea border and a land border. So after the UK becomes independent again we will have a sea border with the Dutch enclave of the EU, and a land border with the Eire province of the EU.
July 24, 2019
NickC
Independent in an interdependent world. Which century do oyu live in?
July 24, 2019
Again I need to say there is a big difference between agreeing a mutually beneficial relationship with another nation and being in the EU.
July 24, 2019
Bill Brown, I live in the C21st. But not in the EU empire. Why, which century do you live in? – the C19th of empires it appears. And as independent of the EU as New Zealand is in an interdependent world.
July 25, 2019
Nick C
You keep missing the point and your ………. rhetoric is full of nonsense
July 24, 2019
@NickC: And as such you accept a border between N. Ireland and the rest of Eire, as such endangering the peace on that island and the fragile Good Friday agreement.
July 25, 2019
The Republic and the UK have both said they will not a build a border.
So unless the EU invade and build a wall nothing really different will happen to the existing birder controls.
July 23, 2019
On the “Briefings for Brexit” website there is a very sound proposal for a seamless and smooth exit from the EU which appears very much as your blog recommends. I have urged my MP to bring it to the attention of colleagues in Parliament and members of the government but his support for the WA convinces me he will not do it.
Presumably you are already discussing these issues with other MPs?
Below is a link to that article which is the most sensible and non-perturbing means of leaving the EU on good terms.
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/the-proposal-of-a-temporary-wto-agreement-can-reshape-the-brexit-debate/?mc_cid=0be95f1cb7&mc_eid=b0dd410e2b
Regards
Kevin
July 24, 2019
Brilliant! All that is needed for this to work is for the EU to abandon every single principle of the negotiating strategy it has used for the last 3 years. Why would it do that? umm … golly gosh cos we Brits hold all the cards dont ya know!! You Brexiters have learned nothing – absolutely nothing.
July 24, 2019
Henry carter, So you maintain the EU will be vindictive and self-harming just to spite the UK? And you still think we should trust our fate to your EU fascists?
July 23, 2019
Now is the time Boris has only one opportunity to get Brexit right no deal must never be taken off the table it is do or die and the May deal must not be resurrected, and we must leave on 31st October or the Torres are dead and so is democracy., Corbyn and his Marxist Hyenas will be in power.
July 23, 2019
Well said Croeso.
Democracy and freedom are priceless. Boris needs to get this through parliament somehow.
I’m very worried about all this ignore parliament rubbish. It’s a shortcut to civil war.
July 23, 2019
Boris 92,153 votes
Hunt 46,656 votes
That says it all, another clear mandate
July 23, 2019
And the number of rejected votes was about the same as the rejected postal votes in the much smaller constituency of Peterborough. You know, where so many voters had problems matching their names, addresses and DOBs. So it looks like the postal vote rejection rate in that rotten borough really is abnormal. I wonder if the local council is investigating that?
July 23, 2019
92,153 out of a population of 65,000,000+.
A clear mandate for the 0.14%.
July 23, 2019
You get to vote in every General Election.
That is how it works.
Mind I expect you will soon want a re run if you don’t like the result.
July 24, 2019
Edward2
“That is how it works”
A phrase that I’ve heard over and over again in recent weeks.
As if that justifies an absurd feudal remnant that dares call itself a ‘democracy’.
Yesterday’s newsflash on my computer shouted: Boris crowned Prime Minister’
So now we have a prime minister ‘elected’ by about 2% of the population joining a head of state elected by no one.
The whole world is laughing at us. If one good thing will come out of all this it is that the people are at long last made aware what a sham our ‘democracy’ is.
Reply He is not crowned ! He is elected by the party and becomes PM because he can command a majority of the MPs in the Commons.
July 24, 2019
Were you so indignant when Brown got voted in as PM?
No you were happy.
The new Lib Dem leader would now be PM if they had a majority in Parliament.
And she was voted in by her members.
Presumably you are OK with that too.
In the EU your leaders got elected by their pals.
Not one European citizen was allowed a vote.
July 23, 2019
Any minute now Andy will ask for another Tory vote ‘ the people didn’t understand what they were voting for’.
July 23, 2019
A day of hilarious comments after the result;
Lammy – going to the right university etc, for a chap with SOAS and Harvard on his CV it it not obvious whether this is envy or a move to replace Corbyn.
Greening – a social mobility budget..Yep social mobility has been destroyed in the UK but one (there are others) of the drivers is mass immigration – did she discount UK citizen social mobility in the referendum?
July 23, 2019
Corbyn – the people of our country should decide who becomes PM.
Is this a new constitutional reform policy from Mr Corbyn?
Perhaps an indication of a new found respect for the people of our country … Who voted to leave the EU Mr Corbyn.
July 23, 2019
Would it be correct to say that any senior Tory who now refuses to accept the possibility of a no deal exit from the EU is so out of step with the party membership that he should resign from the Tory party as well as from any public office he gained as a Tory?
Philip Hammond, for example:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/07/22/chiming-our-independence/#comment-1039139
“So here we had a man who held one of the great offices of state, that of Chancellor of the Exchequer, voting for a course of action which he must have known perfectly well at the time could potentially lead to what he now claims would be catastrophe for our country, without objecting that the Bill should be amended to incorporate whatever safeguards could be devised to prevent that eventuality; only now does he use this as an excuse to try to stop not just a no deal Brexit, but any other kind of Brexit.”
July 23, 2019
In not supporting Mrs. Mays government (of which he is a member) last Thursday he was honor bound to resign then.
So were all the others that forgot their duty. So we get ‘Grandstanding’ as if they are making a point.
He of course in not trying to stop a ‘No Deal’ situation, but is continuing to manipulate Remain
July 23, 2019
One thing that I would encourage Mr Johnson to do, as new Prime Minister, is not to include people like Amber Rudd in his cabinet.
She has professed to “get behind” Boris, if he wins, but she has proved herself to be utterly untrustworthy on a sincerity level.
We are done with Remoaners in ministerial office, and if Mr Johnson has any sense, he should not fall for this card, which was so expertly played in bad faith by Mrs May.
We want a Brexiteer cabinet. If not the Conservatives are a spent force.
July 23, 2019
That’s right purge the Cabinet of everyone who may dare raise questions about The Project.
Because such putrid nonsense has not led to every barbaric regime in history ever.
July 24, 2019
Is that a comment about Corbyn’s Labour Party andy?
July 23, 2019
And still a significant number of Conservative MPs continue to flout both party policy and the people’s vote (to Leave the EU) while also rejecting the will of Parliament (to reject the WA) and equally rejecting or pretending to ignore the firm assurance of the EU (that their vassalage WA is unalterable). And the media rarely if ever point out that they are either lying or terminally thick.
These people also reject the democratic vote of the Conservative Party membership, 66% of whom have chosen Boris Johnson as the leader and Prime Minister.
Their rebellion is mere impudence: they are simply cocking a snook at the Conservative Party, daring it to expel them as members. Many of these MPs sit on fat Tory Shire majorities, and know that whatever happens, they are sitting pretty.
I have nothing but contempt for them and their bile. They are like clerics who openly preach atheism and ridicule their bishops, while lazily continuing to remain financially supported by their benefices.
July 23, 2019
No- I don’t see the logic in this- if the WA is not ratified before we leave then there will be no FTA with them either. We will be third party to them, outside the pale, well outside, free to get on with WTO rules trading. Am afraid Boris is not going to impress when it comes to playing in the big leagues.
July 23, 2019
Even if the WA Treaty was to be ratified there would be no FTA. It has nothing to do with trade or cooperation.
Under EU law all trading between the EU States is done in accordance with WTA. If a State leaves the block the default trading relationship is WTA
July 23, 2019
Frankh – Brexit isn’t only about trade.
July 23, 2019
We should have gone for that in November 2017:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/11/26/the-irish-border-with-northern-ireland/#comment-903216
“So we should now say that rather than kowtow to the stupid destructive intransigence of the EU we will fall back on WTO trade rules and only seek agreements on the practical or technical aspects of continuing trade.
That would do us some economic harm, although nowhere near as much as portrayed by the Remoaners, and it would do the other countries more economic harm, albeit it would be spread around among them, but on most projections the country which would suffer by far the greatest economic damage would in fact be Ireland.”
July 23, 2019
Rejecting an FTA with the UK could result in the break up of the EU. The grouping currently have a £95 bn trade surplus with us so being dogmatic is not in the interest of the major EU economies. However, they appear more concerned about forming a military than the well-being of the peasants.
July 23, 2019
Boris is entering No.10 with no clear majority in the HoC, the economy is on the brink of recession, the Pound is sliding and a large number of Tory backbenchers are ready to dissent at the first opportunity. He’s now going to do the rounds of Europe, he’s going to put forward his ‘can do’ spirit by putting an ‘E’ for energise into the equation but we as we can already see the EU is not impressed and have a stiffened resolve, so the default position awaits as we leave 31st Oct- No WA and No FTA followed by a GE- the way I see it
July 23, 2019
A lower tariff schedule? I think we need to be careful with that. The BBC reported this morning that Canada isn’t that keen on a UK-Canada FTA because our tariff schedule has given away negotiating advantage to Ottawa. They will be able to export 87% of their stuff to us tariff-free. Fox, I suspect, needs replacing. Or perhaps we might get some reciprocity from a new PM when Canada tires of NWO Trudeau.
July 23, 2019
Longterm a FTA guarantees a good position when tariffs are later raised to encourage them, the low rates may be only temporary.
I suspect every non-EU is looking at the EU’s marketshare in the UK that is about to lose its tariff protection. It will be like pirana’s feeding I suspect post November.
July 23, 2019
Now that Philip Hammond has shown his true colours – blue and yellow all the way through – I hope people will stop saying “On the government’s own projections … ” now that it is clear that all Treasury projections will be skewed against Brexit, with or without a deal.
July 23, 2019
We don’t want some wet Tory liberal leader with an obsession with progressive (regressive more like) politics
Johnson was elected for two reasons
Deliver sovereignty and independence
Destroy Marxist Labour and its client state
Anything else would be a catastrophe
July 23, 2019
Dominic
“Deliver sovereignty and independence”
It takes some imagination to describe 100 000 or so establishment cronies who have just ‘crowned’ a new prime minister for us as giving us ‘sovereignty’
If there is one good thing to come from all that it is that it has highlighted to the people of this country what a sham our supposed democracy is.
Change must be on the way.
July 24, 2019
Far more than elected the leaders of the EU recently.
July 24, 2019
For the nth time repeat after me:
THE EU IS A TRADING BLOC CONSISTING OF 27 INDEPENDENT DEMOCRACIES – NOT A COUNTRY.
July 24, 2019
Well not so long ago you andy and others were insisting you were all citizens of the EU
Make your mind up!
July 24, 2019
Margaret Howard, It looks like a “country” to me with all the trappings of the empire some EU politicians claim it to be – flag, anthem, presidents, civil service, executive, laws, courts, law-making authority, can sign treaties, etc, etc.
July 23, 2019
Boris handled it well today. What shocked me was the level of vitriol against him in the media (one could say, a sure sign he must be the right man!) However, the task before him is monumental, and the pressures to compromise overwhelming. And there’s the wider context of a dangerously neurotic world. He will need great wisdom, if he is to prevail for the better.
July 23, 2019
‘He will need great wisdom’…therein lies the problem.
July 23, 2019
England expects Mr Grieve MP to do his duty when Boris sets one foot out of Buckingham Palace as PM to resign as promised from the Conservative and Unionist Party.
July 23, 2019
lots of promises from THEM…now time for action . Resign I say – RESIGN.
July 23, 2019
WTO will create NET £7bn in TAX for the UK according to civitas.
Think of WTO as a tax on the EU.
Compared to £181bn from VAT. So we could have a 5% VAT cut to compensate.
https://www.civitas.org.uk/reports_articles/potential-post-brexit-tariff-costs-for-eu-uk-trade/
Our analysis shows that if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal UK exporters could face the potential impact of £5.2 billion in tariffs on goods being sold to the EU. However, EU exporters will also face £12.9 billion in tariffs on goods coming to the UK.
July 23, 2019
This is a point missed out when talking about tariffs, they often just reduce the burden of taxation elsewhere.
I suspect starting FTA’s with non-EU countries will shift imports elsewhere, in the end the WA may be seen as a titanic folly by the EU that lost them the UK market.
July 23, 2019
“Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer tells me he wants build an “alliance of like-minded MPs” to block a no-deal Brexit.”
His whereabouts today have been traced to Brussels. Cancel his passport! He is with his kith and kin
July 23, 2019
Very senior , very experienced Tory Party Ministers will not accept the democratic vote of Tory Party members 160,000 in total, for their leader.
Very Senior, very experienced Labour Party Shadow Minsters will not accept the democratic vote of Labour Party members 500,000 in total, for their leader.
Very Senior, very experienced LibDem Party Members DO accept the vote result for their own leader despite it not constituting in their own vision of democracy: in that non-voters and votes for her opponent were more than her vote thus ‘not democratic’ as they have advocated for three years in the case of the Brexit Referendum.
Where do we go from here?
July 23, 2019
But of course there’s no mention of Parliament in any of this. Because you’re not a democrat at heart, you can persist with this fantasy that an executive with no majority can deliver any type of Brexit that it wants. The reality is – Parliament will block a No deal – WTO Brexit. You claim that it has no right to do so but, as usual, you’re 100% wrong.
July 24, 2019
Poor Simon.
July 24, 2019
Your problem is that a law has been passed by Parliament that we leave on October 31st.
To alter that date either the PM would have to ask the EU for an extension or the Government would have to introduce new legislation.
Neither of which are likely to happen.
July 24, 2019
Or a No Confidence motion could be passed, which is much more likely to happen. Conservatives plus DUP have barely a majority, so there is a realistic chance that it could succeed. If you really think there will be a nice smooth WTO exit on 31 Oct., then you’ve been reading too much John Redwood.
July 24, 2019
Would Corbyn risk a wipe out ?
I’m looking at the polls and Labour are not doing well.
A possible result of an election would be Conservatives aided by the Brexit Party giving a leave supporting Parliament.
July 23, 2019
So heartening to see that Ivanka, the daughter of Trump and the alleged power behind the throne, has tweeted this afternoon to welcome the new
Prime Minister of the United Kingston.
July 24, 2019
MH…. is that Kingston-on-Thames?
July 24, 2019
And? Is it such a big deal? Have you never made a typo error? Or clicked the wrong spell check word? Or are you just too superior?
July 24, 2019
BillM….Just a light -flippant if you like – response to dear Margaret, who goes on and on and on about doom laden rubbish. And demonstrates all too often how little she a) knows and b) checks on.
Why pick on Ivanka for God’s sake! Running out of targets are we?
July 23, 2019
[…] Today the Conservative party elects a new leader […]
July 24, 2019
For anyone wanting a laugh, 24th July is also the Feast day for St. Boris, a Russian saint. (Look up Boris and Gleb for more details.)
July 24, 2019
BBC gossip …..Mr Hunt is firm he will not accept anything less than staying at foreign office, becoming chancellor or becoming deputy prime minister.
Thats goodbye to him, then. No tears from me.
July 24, 2019
It is horror in the The House today.Most of them actively battle any form of democracy known to man which may raise its pretty head.
They are going on their hols. Let us hope they are not allowed back in the main.There must be some country in this world which would not consider them a high security risk.
July 24, 2019
So why are the ‘’remainer’’ element allowed to stay in the party when they don’t accept nor believe in democracy
The majority of the UK people voted to leave the EU in referendum
The majority of the UK people voted Conservative in the 2017 general election with a manifesto commitment to leave the EU by 29th March 2019
The majority of the UK people voted in protest against the Conservative Party because they didn’t keep with manifesto commitments in local elections
The majority of the UK people voted in protest against the Conservative Party because they didn’t keep with manifesto commitments in European elections
These same conservative remainers are now working to bring down the new government which was duly elected by conservative members
At no stage would you consider them loyal to the party or our system of democracy
July 24, 2019
So what of the PM’s new senior adviser Dominic Cummings?
Jim Pickard, chief political correspondent for the Financial Times, tells the PM programme he is “instinctively hostile towards the civil service.
“He sees it as a big, lumbering, bureaucratic, monster that stands in the way of clever ideas like his.
“I have some contacts in the Vote Leave campaign – they are really, really loyal to Dominic Cummings. They genuinely think the guy is a genius.
Perhaps a significant retirement programme or moving on is on the cards for some ‘obstructive’ ‘Yes Minister’ players.
July 24, 2019
Coming out at Haloween will mean removing the Brexit Party poison from the European Parliament debates. That would be good news.