There is no point in talking about a media mooted deal until there is a published text to read and analyse.
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There is no point in talking about a media mooted deal until there is a published text to read and analyse.
Comments are closed.
December 24, 2020
Correct the devil is in the detail.
December 24, 2020
While it is true that the detail is required, the overall picture does not sound good.
That applies whichever of the media reports you select.
December 24, 2020
Very wise after selling out the nation on the WA and NIP you all voted for.
December 24, 2020
Heath sold out the nation. Major sold out the nation. Cameron lied and ran away. May sold out the nation. Johnson so,d out on the WA and NIP where EU acquis applies, EU inspectors on our soil checking internal goods, ECJ applies across a swathe of areas.
Based on his record to date, do people really expect weak wobbly U- turning Johnson to come back even with a reasonable deal!
December 24, 2020
Your problem is that you cannot see any country, which speaks any language other than English as its first as anything but an enemy.
You are trapped inside primitive brutal, pre-Enlightenment tribalism.
December 24, 2020
As brexit day approaches you are getting more angry and extreme with every post Martin.
It is a real treat to observe.
December 24, 2020
JR,
Suggest you read Facts4EU on 22/12/2020. It might help with your homework.
On 24/01/2020 Johnson told the nation we would leave as one nation. He lied. N.Ireland is partitioned and subject to EU laws, regs and ECJ. Gove made clear EU acquis applies to N. Ireland. He and his counter part made that clear in their respective statements on 17/12/2020. In fact the U.K. will provide access to all its data bases fixed or remote for EU inspectors to make sure that is the case.
There is a border down the Irish Sea.
Lord Trimble makes clear the WA beaks the Good Friday Agreement. No mention from MSM?
Today announcements of a partnership agreement, not trade agreement. What else has Johnson stupidly given away?
Johnson failed to deliver Brexit irrespective of what is announced today. Not sure why JR and chums have not taken action so far?
December 24, 2020
JR,
EJC applies to all EU citizens living here. Tell me one country in the world that allows immigrants to resort to the law of their country of origin?
December 24, 2020
+1
December 24, 2020
Indeed – reportedly circa 2000 pages of it. I have rather low expectations of it, but hopefully I will be proved wrong.
December 24, 2020
I agree. We should have breakfast first, then talk.
Reading the ERG’s statement, one part gave me a good laugh.
“The Star chamber, which will include some new members to replace those now in government…”
Rather calls into question the competence of at least the first ‘Star Chamber’, but also indicates that whatever deal is produced will have ERG DNA. Perhaps this second Star Chamber wants to be seen to be doing its due diligence, so that when the deal meets with their approval, us terrestrials will be sure that this is in fact a wonderful Brexit deal, that Blowers has bashed Brussels into submission, and that Britannia once again rules.
Reply ERG star chamber will judge any deal on its merits. It is not charged to find the deal innocent if it is bad.
December 24, 2020
I think more to the point is that this deal needs time to digest. Without wishing to dampen the Christmas spirit, we have all experienced the result of imbibing too much sauce too quickly in an euphoric mood, only to wake up later feeling much the worse for wear.
December 24, 2020
Personally, I wouldn’t even begin to digest a dog’s breakfast, let alone give it time to work it’s inevitable way through. A deal with the EU is necessarily the same at the point at which it emerges as it is when it is consumed đ
December 24, 2020
We all saw and heard Johnson’s lies over May’s vassalage in the WA and NIP which he claimed to be dead! He made it sound he had an oven ready deal different from hers.
I would trust him an inch. He is a never- ending horror show like his personal life. Proven inveterate liar.
December 24, 2020
Correct, and yet here we are. No one has stood in his way.
December 24, 2020
Indeed, unfortunately one has to remember that 160 CUP MPs (vs 77) voted for BJ, followed by 92,153 (vs 46,656) CUP members, followed by 13,966,454 British people. Three times he was chosen then confirmed as the top dog.
So donât you think we all share some responsibility in what is happening to the UK?
December 24, 2020
You are right. Democracy demands that we are held responsible – even if we want no part of it. Of course, Conservative Party enablers are more directly responsible. A bitter pill for those that voted Tory, no matter how reluctantly.
December 24, 2020
Reply to reply
They are lawyers. They can interpret bad and good to suit. There is much to consider, most importantly of all how best to preserve and protect the Conservative Party. The truth will out soon enough.
Reply They are Brexit lawyers who will judge the text on the merits of the case for the UK
December 24, 2020
Reply to reply
We’ll see. I hope you are right. As I posted below, it will cause much disruption, and boy does this Parliament need disrupting.
December 24, 2020
My trust rests with the opinion of those who write for the BrexitFacts4EU.org website. They seem better informed than most MPs, and I await their verdict, especially.
December 24, 2020
+ 100
December 24, 2020
I don’t read that site, so I couldn’t comment on the opinions expressed there. What I do know is that people can be ‘got at’. I prefer to stick with the axiomatic. If we have a deal with the EU, it is not Brexit in the sense of independence, self-governance, and self-determination.
December 24, 2020
Speaking of people being ‘got at’… Nigel Farage. “On the big stuff the war is over. [The deal’s] not perfect, but goodness me, it’s still progress.” I suppose if Nigel climbs back into his box then it creates the space for someone credible to lead. The question is, Who?
December 24, 2020
I look forward to the ERG getting into full Trump mode. They will probably demand a recount of the General Election. Multiple Court cases claiming Boris had his fingers crossed when he agreed to the deal.
December 24, 2020
Can you imagine, for one moment, what would have happened if they had lost the referendum?
It’s almost a relief that they won.
December 24, 2020
You two are so funny.
December 24, 2020
The Star Chamber are representing the British people. If you had followed them through the dreadful May years you would know the quality of their work. Moreover JR votes against âhis partyâ when necessary, and that has been pretty often of late.
Save your bullets for the enemy. Shooting your own Generals seldom helps.
December 24, 2020
I’d have thought it was pretty clear by now that I am my own General đ
The lawyers approved the WA and PD. We are where we are in no small part because of where they’ve lead us. Forgive me if I have no trust in their judgement.
As for Sir John voting against, I recognise that he has done so in the past, and no doubt will do again. But as I say again ahd again, voting against in the present context will achieve nothing, whether it’s Brexit or the even more important Covid calamity. I await new developments with interest.
December 24, 2020
So what do you propose as right course of action? For all Brexiteers to surrender in their votes in Parliament thereby increasing the pro-EU majority.
Then what? W Edmonton have another 30 years to âestablish a new partyâ before the country will be totally slaughtered by a purely pro-globalist Parliament (which you are advocating?)
December 24, 2020
I have consistently said that voting against is not enough. I have said that merely voting against is pointless. I have never suggested that ‘Brexiteers’ should abstain, or even vote for this. That would be ridiculous, as you well know, which is why you are trying to misrepresent my view as such.
I am clearly not advocating a pro-globalist Parliament. Given your support for the Conservatives, is is you that is enabling exactly this, no matter how unwittingly.
Establishing a new party can be – though isn’t always, depending on the circumstances – a lengthy process. One should certainly expect slow progress and setbacks. I don’t want to sound disrespectful, and indeed I mean this as a compliment, albeit qualified, but it is a shame you didn’t stick with it. Important groundwork could have been laid that we might now be benefiting from.
But this said, it is still not too late to resume the work. Given Farage’s capitulation, there may now be a gap in the market. Given Nigel’s electoral success (in European elections, yes, I know), imagine what a genuinely talented person with courage, conviction and intellectual heft could achieve.
Or you could stick with the pro-globalist Tory party and facilitate the horrors you fear. It’s up to you. For myself, I will do the pitifully little I can given my circumstances. If I could, I would rise up myself, but this is not my path.
December 24, 2020
The same “Star Chamber” that approved Boris’ ovenready deal only to find out a few months later that it divided Northern Ireland from GB?
December 24, 2020
When did they approve that? Reference please?
December 24, 2020
This demonstrates the problem with a 24 hour news cycle. It needs to be filled with speculation from over paid correspondents determined to show they have the best contacts and politicians wishing to impose their own agendas.
Turn them off!
December 24, 2020
Well, that’s one problem…
December 24, 2020
That your still breathing perhaps?
December 24, 2020
Not funny, not clever.
Happy Christmas to Martin.
December 24, 2020
It’s hilarious. He’s so pompous.
December 24, 2020
I have a feeling that I will still be doing so long after you have ceased too.
đ
December 24, 2020
Well we can’t have everything we wish for.
December 24, 2020
Deal or no deal, let us hope the people’s Blue Boris still has a friend he can ‘phone!
December 24, 2020
This is rather like John’s attitude to Trump’s ejection, I think.
December 24, 2020
He has not been ejected yet.
December 24, 2020
And his thralls’.
December 24, 2020
Frankly im sick of all the b rated theatrics, itâs not clever, just pathetic!
December 24, 2020
Never fear. This act is drawing to a close. The next act might – might – be much more interesting.
December 24, 2020
Sharon,
You are quite right, it really is ridiculous posturing and pretending; but then they are politicians who long to star in a provincial Christmas panto but don’t have the talent. This is all they’ve got, be patient.
December 24, 2020
I agree. But this is the EU for you. It makes them and it feel important and relevant.
December 24, 2020
Not just the EU but also the UK. They operate in lock-step.
December 24, 2020
Will we be free or will we be on a leash?
December 24, 2020
It looks very much like the EU will control our waters.
Boris may be looking for a new job very soon.
December 24, 2020
Nah, he’ll be running for his life. Certainly won’t have the guts to go to ant fishing community.
December 25, 2020
Johnson panicked and surrenderd that is clear. Adrian Hill in Con Woman spot on.
UK is a fishing colony for the EU for years to come. After 6 years UK get to fish for 66% of our own fish! When Johnson announced it, most thought and that idiot thinks it is a success! What does failure look like to him!
December 24, 2020
Boris ”we control 100% of our waters but await instruction from EU which part we can fish in ! but yes we control 100%”
December 24, 2020
More likely to be a “lead”, in the UK.
December 24, 2020
Why do you need to see the deal? We know what Brexit is – we all read the promises made by Vote Leave in 2016. A deal on those terms is all you have a mandate for.
If Johnson has negotiated something different Iâd like to see his mandate for it.
December 24, 2020
Andy, you know only too well that the mandate was very simple :
It was to LEAVE The European Union.
The mandate will, at last, have been fulfilled on 1st January 2021.
December 24, 2020
The official Leave campaign campaigned on the promise that there would be a deal.
Unless, of course, the Leave campaign was telling us lies…
December 24, 2020
Leaving the EU was their central message.
Taking back control.
Having a free trade deal was hoped for but it wasn’t a headline or a promise.
Speeches I recall said leaving without a deal on WTO terms would be acceptable.
December 24, 2020
From the official Vote Leave website:
“We have a new UK-EU Treaty based on free trade and friendly cooperation. There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it.”
That is not WTO terms. The official Leave campaign promised us a deal. Now we have to see what that looks like and what it means in practise.
So far I’m not convinced Johnson knows (or wants to admit to) what he has signed up for. In his press conference he talked about having no barriers to trade and then about 30 seconds later admitted that there actually were new barriers to trade.
December 24, 2020
Nonsense
Your quote only confirms what I said.
Where is the word “promise” you keep quoting.
December 24, 2020
You might as well have said that it was to LEAVE the known universe.
What a meaningless expression.
December 24, 2020
Leave the EU
What on Earth is so difficult to understand about that.
December 24, 2020
and a Merry Christmas to you.
December 24, 2020
Oh yes there is! Two thousand pages, I gather. I wonder how many of your colleagues will be reading through all of those before the end of the year?
Reply If true a good man y of us, as we did with the May Agreements before voting against them.
December 24, 2020
Reply to reply
A good many, but not all of course. Many MPs make no effort to conceal their true status as lobby fodder.
But more interesting was you reminding us that you, and others, voted against May’s agreement. Problem is, voting against this time will achieve nothing. Unless there are mass resignations from government and Labour merely abstains rather than voting with the government. But that would either bring down Blowers or effectively render him a lame duck. And the immediate effect would not be No Deal, but an extension of the transition period, which Labour would certainly support. So it’s this deal, or an extension, and the negotiation of a deal Labour can really get behind. Things are just starting to get interesting…
December 24, 2020
I believe that 1st January 2021, as an end to the IP, is written into Primary Legislation. There is not enough time to repeal or amend that legislation so it will be deal or no deal by default, simples!
A merry Christmas to you and yours and a happy New Year.
December 24, 2020
This is a political matter, not a legal one. If both sides wanted an extended transition period there would be one. However, my expectation, even if there is a huge backbench rebellion (which seems unlikely), is that the deal will be ratified quickly and relatively smoothly. The debate in Labour is over whether to abstain or vote FOR the deal – with Starmer reportedly keen to whip for the latter. So an extension will, almost absolutely certainly, be unnecessary.
Merry Christmas to you too.
December 24, 2020
JR
“Reply If true a good man y of us, as we did with the May Agreements before voting against them.”
Don’t make me laugh, you’re all gutless.
December 24, 2020
Reply to Reply:
At 2000 pages of legalise, a bit tough on those whose first language is not English.
December 24, 2020
Correct. The Media deals with suppositions and speculation, not facts.
December 24, 2020
BBC R4 thinks his lordship has sold the Scottish seed potato producers down the river. Apparently they can’t even export their product to Ulster, which will now remain in the EU.
One compromise too many, methinks
December 24, 2020
Any UK business trading in N.Ireland is subject of EU control full stop. Gove made that clear two weeks ago which appeared to spook JR and chums. EU inspectors will also check goods travelling across our nation, that does not sound like taking back control one jot.
December 24, 2020
Maybe they should have gone round telling everyone “seed potato” was an obscure type of fish!
December 24, 2020
The only possible “deal” is now so much like no deal its hardly as matter of great excitement.
I hope all Sir John`s doting fans enjoyed his latest claim to know everyone’s job better than they do .
I agree , lets all dispense with scientists and what not . I will probably (our of sheer curmudgeonly-ness ) get that questionable vaccine cooked up by science . Sir John will presumably be inoculating himself with a concoction of his own devising formed in equal parts of Harpic and ignorance.
Reply Pathetic. My piece praised good expertise as I always do. As an expert myself in economic matters I am pointing out experts often disagree and need to debate openly the issues and understand what we do not know or could improve.
December 24, 2020
I would echo Sir John’s assessment, though not because I am a fan – I am not. On matters related to the medical treatment of the virus Sir John is firmly in the mainstream – or at least the mainstream of ‘experts’.
December 24, 2020
Lucia ( of Mapp and Lucia )is a virtuoso pianist to her small circle of admirers .
December 24, 2020
I’d rather listen to Sir John anyday than your ramblings Newmania. I’ve not read a single respectful rant from you all year. Do us all a favour and give it a rest next year.
December 24, 2020
+1
December 24, 2020
Sir John is a Dr in his own field.
December 24, 2020
Not in economics, but in history. But a doctorate in economics is, more likely than not, a mark of folly. The vast majority of economic theory pervading academia is nonsense.
December 24, 2020
Newmania, were you born rude, or do you just enjoy making unpleasant personal comments?
And if you think so little of our host and his opinions, why bother to read his Diary or post comments? Rational argument can change minds and influence attitudes – what you scribble does neither.
December 24, 2020
Newmania against the distinguished Sir John your mania is old fashioned ripe Tripe aka Codswallop.
December 24, 2020
@Newmania,
I voted Remain for Practical reasons not Doctrinal ones (doctrinally I’m a Brexiter – it makes no philosophical / moral / practical sense why a nation shouldn’t be sovereign – unless your government is clearly corrupt / inept where being governed by a benevolent empire is more preferable – but how can you be sure of a benevolence in an empire?).
I voted Remain for practical reasons because I believed we weren’t ready to leave – didn’t have a plan or leader to implement it. But what trumps that concerns is that the majority voted for Brexit (and BOTH Remainers and Brexiters used unsavoury tactics in their campaigns – not just Brexiters) so overall it seems only sane and right and fair that we allow Brexiters to get on with it – and support them in that even if we still have some concerns about not being prepared properly for it – instead of drifting on in limbo land which is what Remainers, still opposing Brexit, are inviting our country into.
December 24, 2020
Let us hope that the EU has grasped that we wish to APPLY Brexit rather than APPLY FOR it.
The difference is not a minor one.
December 24, 2020
+1
December 24, 2020
While you are right, given that the starting point was a goods-only deal that favoured the EU and the intervening time has been spent on deciding how much of the EU’s absurd demands we should concede rather than rejecting them out of hand, the outlook is not good. ‘Negotiation’ seems to have consisted of us moving incrementally towards the EU’s starting position while they sit with arms folded. An absolute red line on fisheries must be that the tapered change in quotas starts now, ‘status quo’ for several years will just mean the EU will start issuing threats near the end of the period and we are de facto in the CFP.
December 24, 2020
+ 100%
December 24, 2020
So noble, so patronising, so naive.
At 2000 pages even let’s say 1000 pages it is not what Sir John wanted or campaigned for. No doubt he and others will be figuring how the deal’s failures and concessions leaving us open to EU superision and laws can be explained away so he can remain in the Tory club of weaklings.
December 24, 2020
Ouch. That looks like a bullseye to me. I would love to see Sir John prove us wrong.
December 24, 2020
+1
December 24, 2020
They will divide the document up and each deal with a section, so that they get the meat pretty quickly. Then they will cover the sticking points in each section. Then they will release an assessment. These are not amateurs or journalists.
December 24, 2020
are you sure? What tells you anything better than the last 4 years is going to happen?
December 24, 2020
The last 4 years have been pretty good. In fact the last 7 years have been pretty good. We forced Cameron to promise a Referendum, we trapped him into delivering one by giving him the victory, we won the Referendum against overwhelming forces, we have stymied the May Surrender 6 times (twice she abandoned presenting it because she knew she would lose – she was defeated 4 times). We elected a Brexiteer Manifesto. We have survived the dreadful last year as a sitting duck country. We have forced Verhofstad to admit they âalways needed a dealâ and to PANIC!
Letâs see the arrangements. If we donât like them, we will defeat them!
December 24, 2020
Agreed. But it seems unlikely 2000 pages will not involve some promises to follow the EU or the ECJ. Very troubling
December 24, 2020
O/T I read that Oxford University are developing iron based catalysts that can convert atmospheric CO2 to hydrocarbons with the supply of hydrogen.
If true, this is a significant development and allows ICE engines to continue, which are far superior in range than electric vehicles and don’t require expensive and heavy batteries.
Such a technique solves the worries of rising CO2 levels and dwindling North Sea oil reserves.
It makes sense then to oversupply renewable energy generation, as excess energy can be used to make hydrogen for the CO2 conversion process.
Better too to synthesize methane to replace natural gas and heat homes. Gas can be stored, whereas renewable electricity can’t.
December 24, 2020
@Dave,
There is a terrible heresy that says we can’t do well economically without damaging our environment. We can have both. But its a careful balancing act which requires a lot of faith in the power of science, courage, thought, planning and perseverance.
Well done Oxford University – keep going.
December 24, 2020
No where near a surplus of renewable energy, best use is to reduce fuel
use. Possibly when we get to say 100GW of wind giving say +50 GW capacity of electrical power on average.
Its like water, we have plenty of it really.
December 24, 2020
This truly is brilliant news. If we could lift the threat of green crap, sack SAGE and the PM and just tread on Hancock, as well as Brexit maybe less than a majority of us will be suicidal.
December 24, 2020
Best of luck trying to use H2 in an ICE, I would not stand to close when it starts up. H2 in an ICE will be half as energy efficient as using it in a fuel cell – electric drive. I wouldn’t invest in either, nor would anyone who understands Thermodynamics and Fuels Chemistry.
December 24, 2020
In the meanwhile, JR is quite right to insist that any deal must contain a unilateral exit clause. Utterly essential.
December 24, 2020
The government has already a demonstrated a willingness to break international treaties. There is no need for an exit clause, unilateral or otherwise. The point is to have a government willing to tear up bad treaties. This government is hardly going to tear up its own treaty.
December 24, 2020
Itâs NOT a treaty!
December 24, 2020
You can be very literal-minded when you choose. Yes, it’s an agreement. The point is the government isn’t going to tear it up, just as it wasn’t going to tear up the WA it agreed to – the WA the best brains in Britain endorsed as a step towards Brexit, when it was, very obviously, a step towards today’s agreement. Your policy of hoping for the best is about to come into contact with reality. What’s your next move?
December 24, 2020
The marvellous thing is, that as the problems caused by Tory exit and by this rubbish deal – and it will be – become impossible to ignore, proposals to improve matters will form the basis of competing manifestoes come election times.
They will be big substantive, but basically single-issue matters such as “to join the customs union” by Labour. (The Tories cannot really propose anything constructive at all since their policy for the last few years has been to have the most minimal, distant and antagonistic relationship possible with the European Union, and an about turn would make them look sillier still.)
The arguments for and against will be explored with cool heads, and jingoistic sloganeering will not feature as it did with a meaningless intention such as “just Leave”.
The Tories cannot future-proof this deal, as no parliament can bind its successor.
December 24, 2020
Four years until the next election.
Then Labour have to overturn an 80 seat majority.
Rarely has it been done.
So that takes us at least 9 years before you useless socialists get a chance.
December 24, 2020
All long term agreements should have an exit mechanism as a safety valve. This could include a renegotiation mechanism prior to annulment.
It usefully puts pressure on both sides to make the agreement work and not take unfair advantage, knowing the agreement could be dropped by the other side. And it is not right to bind future generations.
December 24, 2020
Last minute deal too late to alter by parliament, nobody can protest because we’re locked up like criminals but we all have to accept it’s a good deal because the same people that have wrecked the country, destroyed our freedom and lost control of illegal immigration tell us it’s a good deal.
Anything this government says is a lie so I’m expecting a disastrous lash up- as usual.
December 24, 2020
We can only hope that the people of this country have long memories. There will be another General Election. How many Brexit blockers lost their seats at the last one?
December 24, 2020
It is my hope that there will be another General Election sooner rather than later. But we will need a credible alternative to the Tories – and I obviously don’t mean Labour!
December 24, 2020
No chance!
December 24, 2020
You’re probably right. Independence may have to be won the old-fashioned way.
December 24, 2020
Approx 150 Conservative seats are marginal. Another 50 I’d say are vulnerable should this 2000 pages turnout to be the backdown I and the Electorate expect. The verdict of this 4 years has to wait unless the MPs decide to depose. No chance – nearly all too cowardly to actually act instead of hiding behind ‘loyalty’.
December 24, 2020
But Boris is safe…and thats all that counts
December 24, 2020
I believe the coronavirus legislation allows for elections to be cancelled.
December 24, 2020
The UK Constitution – it doesn’t actually have one by internationally accepted modern standards – allows for it.
Parliament Is Supreme.
It could vote to have them once every fifty years or not at all.
Happy?
December 24, 2020
Wise advice Sir John. Thank you.
December 24, 2020
Excellent point about the exit clause. Well said
I sincerely hope our year isn’t going to be further ruined by a fudged capitulating deal.
December 24, 2020
I can’t help being suspicious of the timing, releasing the deal on Xmas eve when most people will be otherwise occupied. I am currently in a large group of fishermen watching very carefully what will happen here. I think any sell-out will end badly for the Conservatives in future.
December 24, 2020
Are they British fishermen, or the others, to whom ours sold most of the UK’s quotas, Roger?
December 24, 2020
we should be able to sell whatever of our fish to whomever we choose!
December 24, 2020
It seems that Mr Starmer isn’t going to whip to oppose the bill when it comes to the HoC. So no matter how many ERG members rebel, it will pass with the payroll vote.
December 24, 2020
May as well have let Labour do all the negotiating.
December 24, 2020
The clue is in the word “negotiation”. Why negotiate? When France closes the border to EU truck drivers and Eurostar and allegedly sails a warship into UK waters the case for no deal is a slam dunk. Our fisherfolk have been sold out yet again.
The politburo Commission is very dangerous to European democracy and peoples.
The Conservative and Unionist? Party will always be part of the Establishment and this PM is showing his colours with this deal and other matters e.g. more Peers.
December 24, 2020
At an apparent 2000 pages of no doubt complicated legalese, you will have plenty of bedtime reading over the holidays Sir John! Merry Christmas and let’s hope and pray 2021 is kinder to all!
December 24, 2020
and 1,990 prepared by the EU weeks and months ago — just waiting for the Boris white flag waving day…
December 24, 2020
+1
If this government had any honour they would now hold a general election
December 24, 2020
If there is a deal then the Devil will be in the detail, and subsequently the future of the conservative party.
The elephant traps are:-
1. Any hint of any jurisdiction of the ECJ over any dispute situation.
2. Any law alignment that is anything but a legacy of having belonged to the EU, but which is in the power of Parliament to change should they wish. No ongoing law alignment.
3.Nothing in a fishing agreement that fails to recognise that the UK is a sovereign state in control of its own territorial waters. No absolute right of any EU state to fish in our waters except under our rules and control. Who can fish, where they can fish, the size of fish they can take, the quantity of fish they can take, the methods employed in fishing should all be in our control and policed by the Royal Navy.
These are the areas I expect to be forensically scrutinised once the text is published
December 24, 2020
There already is under WA and NIP.
December 24, 2020
1, will be the case in Northern Ireland.
2, is a normal part of agreeing preferential market access in FTAs.
3, watch this space.
December 24, 2020
Totally agree, esp point 3. My concern is if a 3/8 year transition is agreed then considering the technology and scale of EU vessels our waters will be like “scorched earth”.
December 24, 2020
thats 3-5 years transition is only phase one…..a follow-up negotiation will be 10 years and so on
December 24, 2020
Good morning – Again
Very much agreed.
I stated sometime ago that I would not comment other to say that it was not a FTA as has been suggested, but rather an EEA / Associate member agreement. This is because there is not time to ratify a true FTA and that would need to be ratified by the Europarl and all EU27 Countries. An EEA / Association Agreement is far simpler.
In short – it is BINO. We will still be paying in. Still accepting the Acquis. Etc, etc. Not what I and 17.5m others voted for.
December 24, 2020
I think BRINO sounds better. After BRINO/BINO has been achieved, we’ll need something to argue about. You say BINO. I say BRINO. The people must have their say. Referendum!!
December 24, 2020
This will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation, not on the EUâs treaties or EU law. There will be no political alignment with the EU. We will keep the UK out of the single market, out of any form of customs union, and end the role of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points-based immigration system.
Raise standards in areas like workersâ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters.
Conservative and Unionist Party – 2019 Manifesto.
December 24, 2020
Who are “we”?
What is this “will”?
You do understand that no parliament can bind its successor, yes?
And that governments often change at elections?
And that the European Union are always open to sensible discussions for mutual benefits?
Think about that.
December 24, 2020
You’ve got a very long wait Martin
Four years until the next election.
Labour trying to overturn an 80 seat majority.
Dream on.
December 25, 2020
Dear Mr. Redwood,
Dear @Martin in Cardiff,
You could ask your mate @Andy. He knows.
He knows who ‘we’ are as in ‘when we hold the Brexit Nuremberg trials’.
And he knows who ‘you’ are as in ‘all of you lot voted for it’.
December 24, 2020
Off topic. SAGE campaign to close all schools in full swing now, John Edmunds presenting modelling data to the media to force the issue. When will Boris cave in ?
December 24, 2020
Sir John.
To help ease the suspense of the waiting for the written word can I suggest that everybody who supports this site read the report regarding China has nearly full control of all the raw earth minerals essential for the manufacture of turbines generators and batteries for electric vehicles. Well slap my thigh who would have ever thought that.https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/europes-wind-and-e-car-industry-dependent-chinas-magnetic-metals
December 24, 2020
It looks like Boris will become the new Ted Heath tying us to the EU forevermore. The press is already leaking the capitulation on fish in preparation for Boris’s TV announcement. The fishermen of this country were betrayed by Heath and Boris will become the new Heath. This is a victory for the EU in exchange for nothing. Once the detail of the 2000 pages of what is a new treaty are examined, further capitulations will be revealed in the small print.
Time for Boris to resign as he has failed to take back control.No wonder Cummings resigned;he could see what was going to happen and did not want to be part of it.
December 24, 2020
+1
December 24, 2020
Fish not sounding good. Agree, no point in too much comment.
December 24, 2020
Any ‘Deal’ and at the last minute says to me CLIMBDOWN.
NO DEAL was preferred.
December 24, 2020
No Deal was always the only means of delivering Brexit. It’s a pity that even the likes of Nigel Farage were not sufficiently blunt about this.
December 24, 2020
You would have lost the referendum by a wide margin if those driving the Leave campaigns had revealed their true intentions.
But honesty was never nor is their strong suit.
However, the damage will be to a large degree undone in the future.
December 24, 2020
You would have won if Remain hadn’t used Project Fear as their main effort
It was a totally negative campaign.
And it failed.
December 24, 2020
Who is ‘you’? Certainly not me. I had no part in the Leave campaign. Each and every politician involved in the referendum either lied or was ‘economical with the truth’. The details of the whole affair are sordid. Nevertheless, the will of the people, however imperfectly, was expressed. Once one has consulted the people, if one does not do as they direct, one will face consequences. It’s up to the people to judge whether they are happy with this deal. My best guess is they will be – even if it is worse than genuinely leaving and worse than not leaving in the first place.
December 24, 2020
Agree – Very sad day for people who voted leave
December 24, 2020
We’ve waited 4.5 years and its no better than Mays chequers deal…..what was the point in sacking her if we still using her plan
December 24, 2020
May couldn’t sell it, but Blowers has. An unwanted gift as far as I’m concerned. Just a shame there is no receipt so we can get a refund…
December 24, 2020
I am still waiting for this government to fulfil and comply with the contract of the referendum and Leave the EU
December 24, 2020
Take a good book with you. Itâs going to be a long wait.
December 24, 2020
This government has not, and will not, do that. A different government is needed.
December 24, 2020
The UK has LEFT last January.
Farage and Hannan etc. got their helpful shoves between the shoulders from the European Union’s parliament- sadly not at the top of a long flight of steps.
There was no “contract” beyond that.
Your pretence that there was is pure delusion.
December 24, 2020
So why the continued payments to the EU and a requirement not to sign any trade deals?
We will have left January 1st 2021.
December 24, 2020
Martin, Quite clearly we have not left – the EU continues to control the UK as it did in 2016. This deal is a half way house – BINO – where the EU continues to control in some areas (fish, money, level playing field, Northern Ireland), but not in others – assuming reports are correct. So we won’t even Leave on 1st Jan 2021.
December 24, 2020
What are the possibilities for this deal to be blocked by either Parliament or EU Member States now?
Slim-to-none I would suggest, which must have always been part of this carefully choreographed farce anyway.
December 24, 2020
And whoâs speaking out for the 17.4 million peopleâŠ..whoâs on there side â not this government and not labour
December 24, 2020
Glen Cullen
Seems Farage isn’t on our side either, but then we all know what he does in a fight: runs !
At some point in time we’ll get a leader who comes with balls, is not dependent on backing from big business (hence not corrupt) and is not afraid to fight for the country.
Need less to say whoever it is won’t be a conservative.
December 24, 2020
Iâll settle for anyone that believes in the concept of democracy and truth
December 24, 2020
Jack Falstaff
“which must have always been part of this carefully choreographed farce anyway.”
Of course it was choreographed, the whole thing stinks.
Now you know why May and Johnson spent so much time in the RoI……secretly planning the effective EU annexation of NI.
Look on the bright side, there is still revenge. This will be the last ever conservative government. In fact I’d put money on the party having to disband altogether, this is their end.
December 24, 2020
….and to add injury to insult, the BBC is now wheeling out a sorry parade of embittered BRINO-SAUR politicians who are still blubbing about remaining.
December 24, 2020
LMAO !
…..now Redwood’s true colours emerge.
December 24, 2020
JPMorgan Chase & Co.âs chief U.K. economist, Malcolm Barr, assessment from the British government Brexit deal.
âThe EU appears to have secured a deal which allows it to retain nearly all of the advantages it derives from its trading relationship with the U.K., while giving it the ability to use regulatory structures to cherry pick among the sectors where the U.K. had previously enjoyed advantages in the trading relationship,â
As predicted, the Brexiters sold a pipe dream to the British public and are now being presented with a deal that is no different from Theresa May’s deal as reality bites.
I do not feel sorry for you, Sir Redwood. You brought that upon yourself and I am looking forward to you either
a) leaving the Conservative party to form your own hard core political party which in a first-by-the-post system is pointless.
or
b) defending a deal that you know is rotten but may allow you to remain a Conservative MP a bit longer.
Merry Christmass.
Reply So how can you and they assess a deal which has not been finally agreed with no text published. I will study any text that emerges and report faithfully on it and what I intend to do about it. Do try to behave sensibly – you let down the cause you believe ion by such comments based on no text.
December 24, 2020
Reply-to-reply> Will you send your letter to President Elect Joe Biden before or after you resign from the Conservative party ?
Your dear Brexiters that were all hyped up for no-deal are going to be very cross with you.
December 24, 2020
I remember Kinnock prancing around on a stage like the winner – just before he lost.
You prance too, Parliament has not looked at the EU deal, itâs not done until it gets their approval and the President of the USA remains President Trump.
December 24, 2020
Lynn… oh Lynn… donât you get it yet ?
Labour has already said it will support the deal. Itâs done. Parliament wonât come to your rescue.
And now I am really going to enjoy you finally realizing how much you have been betrayed.
Merry Christmas, Lynn !
December 24, 2020
Tabulazero
“Your dear Brexiters that were all hyped up for no-deal are going to be very cross with you.”
Cross ?….cross ?
We’re after blood ! to coin a phrase.
Johnson said Oct 15th, he was lying.
Johnson said last Sunday, he was lying.
Johnson has let the RoI make a grab for NI.
Johnson compared the working of May’s WA to polishing a turd, yet he still hasn’t ripped it up. But he did rip up clause 38.
Johnson said no deal is better than a bad deal, lying again.
Johnson said this country would prosper mightily on WTO.
Then we have macron imposing a blockade, and a french warship navigating British territorial waters…..and guess what – suddenly there’s a deal and french fishing vessels still allowed in our waters.
And to cap it all off this lying remainer ‘bag of smelly stuff ‘ wants to take everyone’s cars off the road – but fortunately him and his kind will be out of office before then.
Cross doesn’t come into it.
December 24, 2020
Youâve realized yet that you are now all relying on the EU Parliament or a Member-State vetoing this deal ?
I hope the irony is not lost on you.
December 24, 2020
In a word ‘agree’
December 24, 2020
JR
“Reply So how can you and they assess a deal which has not been finally agreed with no text published.”
If I may interject, Mr Redwood, I can answer that –
We can assess this deal quite easily, firstly based on the fact that the current government cannot be trusted, it’s leader lies through his front teeth and breaks every promise.
Secondly HIS (not ours) friends in the EU, particularly France, are ok with this deal. Therefore you can bet your life it is a bad deal for us.
We don’t need the media or politician’s mealy mouthed words to know that Johnson & his shitweasels have sold us out, as we rightly said they would.
December 24, 2020
Steve is right.
The EU gets quota & tariffs free access for goods to the UK market. The UK get nothing in return for services.
Itâs amazing what a few trucks stuck at Dover courtesy of the French can achieve when it comes to focusing the mind.
December 24, 2020
and your French friends hurt all those thousands of truck drivers wanting to get home to their various countries for Christmas!
December 24, 2020
Foreign tuckers getting covid tests at the expense of the taxpayer and as a priority before UK citizens ? The French are laughing at us
December 24, 2020
They do yes.
Oh ! And they say thanks again for sending Priti Patel over with some cash just not to solve the immigration problem in the Chanel.
Theyâll keep the cash though
December 24, 2020
In short:
When it comes to goods and agricultural products where the EU exports more it get to sell to the UK on a quota and tarif free basis.
When it comes to services where the UK exports more it does not get anything in terms of access.
You can bet that the bubbly is going off in Brussels, Paris and Berlin.
I am really going to enjoy watching you défend such a lopsided deal to the Brexit fanatics you have whipped up in a frenzy.
December 24, 2020
Ridiculous nonsense Tab…
Services are not part of the single market
December 24, 2020
I think we CAN talk about the fact that it may be too late for MPs to properly scrutinize the deal.
For that reason I would prefer that MPs vote against it.
December 24, 2020
No it is not too late. They will scrutinise it. Just wait for the best brains in the country, protecting our interests to highlight ten pros and cons.
So long as this is not a âtreatyâ, simply a âdealâ, we can recant.
December 24, 2020
The best brains? – just like the examinaion of the WA?
My God, where do you get that confidence from?
December 24, 2020
But the Withdrawal Agreement is a Treaty
December 24, 2020
We can recant a treaty as well – even if it might be perceived as poor form. The difficulty is electing a government that will do it. No comment on the brains đ
December 24, 2020
They wonât vote against it. Because despite their bluster most MPs recognise that any deal is better than a no deal. So it frankly does not matter what the ERG does or says because this is Brexit. This is what you voted for in 2016. The sketchy details I have read suggest it is not very good.
I suppose you could pin your hopes on one EU country rejecting it. Maybe even the European Parliament – who will scrutinise it properly. But MPs will back it.
December 24, 2020
Andy, Your EU’s toy parliament has no power to reject this deal, or even amend it. And this is quite definitely not what I voted for, not least because BINO wasn’t even offered.
December 25, 2020
Funny – how come it was able – rightly – to reject TTIP?
December 24, 2020
It was too late a month ago
December 24, 2020
Yes Sir John, I totally agree with your tweet
Due to the treachery the eu tried to slide into the so- called agreement our politicians must insert a get out clause that we can activate at any time without any input from the eu.
Far from being âfriends and partners â as Boris calls them, they are trading opposition who I for one do not trust.
December 24, 2020
“Far from being âfriends and partners â as Boris calls them”
Johnson calls them ‘our’ friends because Ursula makes him.
December 24, 2020
Donât like the sound of â Our common global goalsâ.
Von der Leyen.
December 24, 2020
We have a deal – but the details are sketchy
I would like to know how and why we have agreed to common standards, including state aid controls ???????????????????????? Something that should never have happened.
When will the fine print be available for scrutiny?
Do we have an exit clause?
December 24, 2020
Do we have an exit clause?
…..no, we don’t need one as we’ll be going back begging to countries which owe their existence to us.
It’s all pre planned and has been since 2016.
December 24, 2020
No. Boris with the votes from Labour if necessary will push it through. All that remains to be seen is whether Sir John Redwood remains a Conservative.
December 24, 2020
Bryan
‘We’ did not agree to anything Johnson has done. Johnson agreed these things without mandate, and you’re correct in that these things should not have happened, especially as Johnson said they were red lines.
The fine print will only be available for perusal when it’s too late for anything to be done about it. That’s how Johnson operates…..sneaky, cowardly, dishonestly.
Nobody should be in any doubt that this is a bad deal for Britain, if the french, the Irish, and the EU are ok with it you can be sure it’s no good for us.
If the deal was good for this country Johnson would have been on TV at 8 am this morning (as he was supposed to be – yet another schedule dishonoured) and he would have been in full Churchillian act championing it as a major victory.
But no, hid from the cameras, couldn’t look us in the eye & eventually crawled out of his hole many hours later.
The guy goes through life believing the best way to avoid a punch is not to be there………he’s a real fighter, eh ? Just the sort you need to defend the national honour.
December 24, 2020
84% of UK companies that donât export to the EU will now have to comply with all EU standards and regulations
December 24, 2020
Dear Sir John,
Just listening to Mrs von der Leyen and Mr Michel Barnier’ press conference at the Berlaymont, Brussels, EU…
Will Lord BoJo-the-Blond write the new biography of Neville Chamberlain next 2021?
With “BREXIT done”, will all Brexiteers now gleefully cheer this “Oven-ready BRINO” so stridently promised by your Tory Party last December 2019?
I wonder if Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party will soon be the greater paliamentary bench at Westminster, when next May 2021 Holyrood will have a clear secessionist majority and the NI Census will point to a neat Catholic/Nationalist demographic majority, prelude to an Irish border poll.
However, if you need to, you can come to live in Portugal because, as Her Majesty’s subject, you are empowered to live here as a portuguese citizen without further ado, by the still in force Anglo-Portuguese Commerce and Navigation Treaty of August 1914.
Enjoy your Christmas with your loved ones,
Yours truly,
Fernando Ferreira
December 24, 2020
Fernando
“However, if you need to, you can come to live in Portugal because, as Her Majestyâs subject, you are empowered to live here as a portuguese citizen without further ado, by the still in force Anglo-Portuguese Commerce and Navigation Treaty of August 1914.”
Indeed. Actually Portugal is England’s oldest ally – fact.
Though I would probably opt for Russia or Israel. They don’t appease their enemies and they’re led by men of guts, as opposed to the parasites we have.
December 24, 2020
Thanks but no thanks Fernando. Tried Spain and hated it. Happy Christmas to you too.
December 24, 2020
Go and tend you vegetable plot Ferreira.
December 24, 2020
What on Earth are you rambling on about Fernando.
You plainly don’t like the UK so you should be happy we are leaving on Jan 1st 2021.
Stop your sneering.
December 24, 2020
Too much sauce.
December 24, 2020
I thought it quite amusing – and a pretty good analysis. Though Farage looks like he’s very much yesterday’s man.
December 24, 2020
Just heard Von Leyen claiming victory over fishing rights, and control of accesss to the single market and the penalties the UK will be subject to for any breach of conditions.
I dare say ‘Boris’ will say he has won everything but that does sound good to me.
December 24, 2020
Should be ‘not sound good’.
December 24, 2020
The EU might have 75% of fishing quota, 5.5 years of continued fishing and control of access, but we, as Boris claimed today have 100% control of our waters
December 25, 2020
he didn’t say above the surface, or below – – – did he?
December 24, 2020
Johnson – “for the first time since 1973 we will be an independent costal state with full control of our waters”.
But we are NOT, are we, Johnson ?
“But it is up to us all together as a newly and truly independent nation”
But we are NOT, are we, Johnson ? You haven’t even dealt with the Scottish National Socialist Party, have you ?
“There will be mutual respect and mutual recognition”.
Ok, Johnson, so that means next time our boats and crews are attacked, we have the right to do it back to them. After all this is what ‘mutual’ means, yes ?
I hope you somehow get to read this Johnson, you may take it that my finger is poking you very hard as I ask these questions.
December 24, 2020
Let’s face facts. If it’s a sellout (which looks about right) then it will be nodded through by both the Tory 5th column and the Lib Lab rearguard desperate to keep the door open for re entry.
December 24, 2020
Yes Paul this is rock bottom now the only way is up
December 24, 2020
and don’t forget Labour who have confirmed tonight that they’ll vote for the deal – even without reading it
December 24, 2020
Even better: Labour has already said it will vote for it.
Itâs a done deal and I will enjoy watching John Redwood either defend this pig of a deal or fall on his sword.
December 24, 2020
Why don’t you bog off with your disrespectful and hatred remarks? We don’t need your sort commenting here.
December 24, 2020
Your tears taste delicious, Fedupsoutherner.
Yum!
December 24, 2020
Here here.
I notice the salty tears of angry remain fanatics all of a sudden on here.
December 24, 2020
Opposition votes are not needed.
The Tories have a majority of eighty.
It is a Tory brexit.
It is a Tory covid 19 mismanagement catastrophe.
It is a Tory deal with the European Union, which is EXACTLY as Remain predicted it would be even before the referendum. Far worse than membership, that is.
December 24, 2020
It is a Tory brexit
__________________________
And thats been the problem for the past 4.5 years – its the people brexit…..and politicians forgot that
December 24, 2020
Yet again you remain fanatics are obsessed with trade.
It is about being an independent sovereign nation.
December 25, 2020
So why is the economy suddenly so vitally important to YOU when it comes to covid19 measures then?
Shouldn’t saving British lives come top?
December 25, 2020
Red herring alert
Trying to conflate my post to another completely different argumrnt about the effect of policicy decisions concerning Covid.
So you sre saying………
December 24, 2020
Martin, This “deal” is NOTHING like Remain predicted.
December 25, 2020
Ohhhhh yes it is!
December 24, 2020
The Remainers peddling the line âitâs exactly the same as Mayâs dealâ. Ha ha. Thatâs the best lie they could come up with. Sad.
December 24, 2020
It isnât the same as Mayâs deal. It is significantly worse for the U.K.
December 24, 2020
I am really going to enjoy watching the rabid Brexiters defend this deal like they defended the Withdrawal Agreement as a great success.
Itâs pointless anyway: Boris will pass it with Labourâs votes if needed.
December 24, 2020
Will this new agreement (if ratified) override the Withdrawal agreement? ie. is the WA now redundant or will it still stand?
December 24, 2020
The WA stands absolutely just the same as any other International treaty it is about the past and UK’s exit from the EU- today’s agreement with the EU is about the future
December 24, 2020
The withdrawal agreement is a legally binding international treaty. This does not override it. You still have your border down the Irish Sea.
December 24, 2020
The WA stands. You have basically given up Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland.
December 24, 2020
NI is still under EU law.
But eventually the Sourthern Irish will see the light and join the Anglosphere-TPP arrangement which will be honest and suit us and the Irish better.
December 24, 2020
The Netherlands will study the deal, especially concerning the level playing field and the governance of it, before giving its reaction.
December 24, 2020
PvL
No, Peter, the Netherlands government will do as it’s told by the french – led EU. What you or your countrymen think is irrelevant.
It’s all choreographed mate.
December 24, 2020
Stop trying to pretend you are an independent nation, and do what the EU tells you. Your reaction is irrelevant.
December 25, 2020
@John C: Actually, we ARE the EU, one of the 27 members. “They” are not our enimy or foreign to us.
This brexis deal which is such a great victory for the brexiteers, still needs careful scrutiny ! đ
I don’t expect a Dutch veto of course, but a better understanding of how we are to profit from the new rule book for trade with the UK. Understanding is a condition for success.
December 24, 2020
You don’t like competition, do you? Yes, implement your new working time directive to 25 hours a week. We’ll work 75, attract your workers and offer a better standard of living to them.
Good luck. Bye.
December 24, 2020
You mean the same workers you were happy to downgrade to second class citizens with your point based system ?
I think they will remember what you did.
December 24, 2020
Nonsense.
Many independent sovereign nations have point based systems.
December 24, 2020
I pray they decide on the veto.
December 24, 2020
Why ? The deal is in the EUâs favour. No tariffs on goods, no access to services.
December 25, 2020
The level of spite and vindictiveness knows no bounds.
December 24, 2020
A couple of points I picked up from the Mail Online:
JPMorgan said it looked like the EU had secured a deal retaining nearly all of its advantages from trade with the UK, but with the ability to use regulations to ‘cherry pick’ among sectors where Britain previously had advantages – such as services
Exports of meat, fish and dairy products to the EU will be able to continue beyond January 1 after the UK was granted ‘national listed status’.
The measure means live animals and products of animal origin can be supplied to the EU after Brussels confirmed the UK met health and biosecurity standards.
December 24, 2020
It’s total horse shit Mr Redwood, you know it, we know it.
NI has gone, the french are still in our fishing waters.
You have chosen to stand by your party, which I find bizarre for someone who’s one of the very few honest talking politicians, i.e. not a liar – and I’ve always defended you on this.
However, you must now go down with the ship.
December 24, 2020
Let’s fight to keep NI
Irish via the EU already bribing them to stay in EU schemes EHIC and Erasmus 2 hours in.
We need to chuck cash and jobs NI way like there’s no tomorrow, and offer the Southern Irish privileges they don’t get in the EU. Get the Hong Kongers in there as was suggested 30 years ago. Go go go.
That;s where the EU-UK battle will be joined.
December 24, 2020
Sir Johnâs loyalty to his partyâs leadership is commendable beyond reason
December 24, 2020
mmm.. but good to see goods being shipped to our ports and extra jobs which will be created
December 24, 2020
We can’t have any competition creeping in can we.
How does the EU stop other nations from upsetting your level playing field?
December 24, 2020
I am a widget exporter and the product must meet EU standards which I have aways regarded as too complex and over-engineered.
I have made a better version with a more advanced material which carries out the same function. I have contracts with two non EU countries who are desperate to get supplies.
Will I be able to export to them after 1st Jan without EU approval or the fear that they may be able to threaten sanctions against me or the country?
December 24, 2020
Why would the EU have any right to impose (what) sanctions?
December 24, 2020
As of right under this trade deal the whole of the UK must comply with current and new regulations on manufacture (level playing field) and ensure that we have mechanises in place to verify, inspect (customs) and collect any data and associated taxes / tariffs due and enforce any said regulations in line with EU /ECJ requirementsâŠ.
December 24, 2020
You must comply with EU standards regardless or face penalty and tariff (even if you don’t export)
December 24, 2020
Thought you always had to meet the standards of the Country you were exporting to no matter where they are in the World, unless they will accept/agree some sort of divergence/equivalence or have alternative arrangements in place.
December 24, 2020
If I sound overly cynical and something of a spoilsport, then I apologise, but personally I find it deeply disturbing that Mrs May has signalled her approval of this deal on Twitter.
December 24, 2020
Some of you seem surprised that there is a deal. I have been telling you all for years that there would be one. I have also been telling you for years that it would not be a very good deal for the U.K. Turns out I am right about that too. No provision at all for services – our strength. And yet the EU gets tariff and quota free access to our market for goods – its strength.
The leaders of the EU27, Mr Barnier and Ms Von Der Leyen really canât believe all their Christmases have come at once. But they have. And all they had to do was fling you a few fish. Just like I said they would.
I also correctly predicted Tory MPs would eventually vote for the withdrawal agreement – with only moderate changes – even after Mayâs first attempt was rounded defeated.
So I am good at this Brexit prediction lark. MPs will back this deal. It might struggle in the European Parliament or with a few member states but it will eventually be approved. Maybe with some huffing and puffing. It will be hugely damaging to the UK- resulting in a unites Ireland and independent Scotland. Both within a decade.
The damage to the economy will be immense but slow hitting. We will see some shortages over coming months but these will be the exception, not the rule. But rather like a slow puncture things will just go down from here. We will find our relative wealth compared to our nearest neighbours fall. So whilst we are sort of comparable to Germany, France, Belgium and The Netherlands now in a decade or so we will be more like Italy or Spain.
We will have little choice but to accept many EU product standards anyway as few manufacturers will supply a small and increasingly irrelevant market like the UK anyway. Brexit voters will get angry with the increased bureaucracy they face travelling abroad or buying from Europe. They will demand change. Free movement will be brought back because it will be too hard to operate without it.
The next 10-20 years will see us slowly undo the more pointless parts of Brexit. The duplicate regulations, ditching of Erasmus and so on. And then, eventually, we will rejoin. It is a demographic inevitability. In the meantime it is damage limitation.
December 24, 2020
Boris says. “We have completed the biggest trade deal yet worth ÂŁ166bn a year, a comprehensive Canada-style free trade deal with the EU, he says. (Guardian Live)
The Canada – EU deal is worth half that figure, assuming Boris is talking “total trade” value figures; I don’t know, nor does anyone else I am communicating with. If that number is true, and not another load of Boris bullshit; it represents just a quarter of the UK’s current total trade with the EU. I am not expecting any clarification from Downing Street, anytime soon.
December 24, 2020
Please keep us updated if you ever get an answer
December 24, 2020
It’s BRINO.
December 24, 2020
”That it be”
December 24, 2020
Can I count on your vote in the BRINO/BINO referendum?
December 24, 2020
You see that Mark B! BRINO! In your face! I have a feeling I won’t have to resort to Project Fear and buses with dubious livery to win this referendum!
December 25, 2020
?
December 24, 2020
Look at DIAGONAL ACCUMULATION please.
Can the EU export to us tariff-free vehicles comprising more than 40% non-EU non-UK parts where those parts are made in Japan, Canada etc. whereas we cannot include JP, CA parts?
Asking for a friend.
December 24, 2020
It’s a shame that the only real benefit of EU membership – free movement – has had to be sacrificed.
The rest is noise.
On the whole, this has been a completely pointless exercise as the political establishment ha never had any intention of actually leaving the EU. I give up. Pay the ÂŁ12 billion a year and stay as members. Seriously, what was the ****ing point?
December 24, 2020
+1
December 24, 2020
The point was to have the trade benefits without the jurisdiction of EU Courts.
December 24, 2020
It is very murky in here – occasionally I catch a glimpse of myself reflected.
We don’t know what is in the deal.
It doesn’t matter whether we do or don’t.
MPs don’t know what is in the deal.
It doesn’t matter if they know or not.
Everything is done behind closed doors.
We are given the mushroom treatment.
It is all smoke and mirrors.
No accountability. No chance of a change of government. Labour and Tories are the same.
My New Year’s resolution. Give up thinking about current affairs.
December 24, 2020
Perhaps for many of us continuing, or not, to read and contribute to this blog might be considered as a nod towards a New Year resolution. The years of accusation, rebuttal, sometimes learning, opinion dismissals, indifference, disappointment and also a comment on the way to recording history in the making.
Reduction of stress, an aim to ignore the distaste of politics, the chasm between public opinion, the media portrayal of events both real and imagined, and the manipulation of power by the unworthy – all point to better use of the uncertain remaining time we have on this earth.
December 24, 2020
I’m feeling the same way Mike. What’s the point of voting for a party that promises so much and delivers nothing? I feel I may as well have voted Labour. We vote for a manifesto and then it all changes once they get in. Most of what Boris is delivering is what I’d expect from Labour. If this deal is as bad as I think it’s going to be then I’m not voting for either of the main parties again. No wonder people don’t bother to vote. What’s the point?
December 24, 2020
+1
December 24, 2020
My friends mother doesnât have the internet and doesnât watch the news on TV â her life is bliss
December 24, 2020
Another soupcon….
“The Irish government on Thursday confirmed students in Northern Ireland can continue to access Eramus as part of its promise to make sure Irish citizens in the region âwill never be left behindâ their fellow citizens south of the border. Citizens in Northern Ireland can also avail of a scheme to replace the European health insurance card (EHIC) funded by the Irish government.”
Does this count as a political subsidy to entice NI into a Union i.e. front running gerrymandering?
Asking for a friend.
December 24, 2020
I suppose it is difficult to wave two thousand pages.
December 24, 2020
most of it will be worthy of a door-stop.
December 24, 2020
+++++1
December 24, 2020
I donât understand a lot of the wrangling. I wanted to be free of the EU. I didnât want the ECJ to have any say on our future.
As for fishing. It appears that to allow a few years to allow the EU to fish which I think is depreciating each year sounds a reasonable concession considering it will take that long to build the Uk fishing fleet.
That is without Wee Krankie âs wallys not liking anything that gets in the way of their ultimate aim of destroying the U.K.
December 24, 2020
Looking on the bright side, we are at our weakest now as we depart with few external deals in place. Time is on our side with deals to be made around the world and a refocussing of our businesses away from the EU. We can expect the saboteur efforts of Remoaners to fade away, and it is likely that the ROI will baulk at increased payments to the EU and leave themselves, solving the problems of the Irish border as we generously set aside their conduct over the last few years. If the EU launches a trade war in five years time they will find themselves facing a bigger and stronger John Bull than hitherto.
December 24, 2020
Sir John, Please do let us have a link to the actual text as soon as you have it!
December 25, 2020
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948093/TCA_SUMMARY_PDF.pdf
December 24, 2020
Let’s fight to keep NI
Irish via the EU already bribing them to stay in EU schemes EHIC and Erasmus 2 hours in.
We need to chuck cash and jobs NI way like there’s no tomorrow, and offer the Southern Irish privileges they don’t get in the EU. Get the Hong Kongers in there as was suggested 30 years ago. Go go go.
That;s where the EU-UK battle will be joined.
December 24, 2020
Great to see the remain extremists on here getting all angry.
What a great Christmas present that is.
Hilarious reading them all venting.
December 24, 2020
Really looking forward to you defending this deal Edward2
December 25, 2020
You’ve posted over 15 times all angry since the deal you said could never happen has happened.
Now you’ve moved onto a new line of saying you don’t like the deal.
Hilarious remainer.
Roll on January 1st 2021.
December 24, 2020
I see we have to maintain our membership of the European Convention of Human Rights â what of sovereignty
December 24, 2020
Compared to a BNP-voting head-banger’s dream of a completely isolated Britain, trading with no-one and subsisting on a constant diet of fish and bangers, the FTA announced today is probably a disappointment. We didn’t even get permission to bomb Berlin. Imagine.
But that’s mainly because, as an FTA, it bears a remarkable resemblance to an FTA. That will annoy a lot of people, especially those who were expecting some sort of Declaration of Independence instead of an FTA.
An FTA, of course, is full of agreements on zero tariffs and zero quotas, not to mention facilitation of this and that, stays for business purposes, appeals to QTO rules, mechanisms for dispute resultion and on and on. All the sort of stuff we need to have to go on trading with the EU, which, if you recall, was sort of the point.
If it enrages someone to read an FTA, they don’t have to swallow two thousand pages of enragement. The UK Government has provided a handy thirty page summary on its web-site and I expect lots of people will read at least a few pages of it:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948093/TCA_SUMMARY_PDF.pdf
If you want the big picture, here it is. We were alarmed fifty years ago at the prospect of Europe raising barriers to UK trade. We spent 46 years in the EU trying to fix it, a hopeless task. Now we are out, we are really out, and have a better trade deal than we had fifty years ago. Some people will complain about anything, but to me, that’s not a bad outcome at all.
December 25, 2020
I often joke to friends that Remainers have been going through the multiple stages of grieving. First, there was going to be no referendum. Next that they would win it 60/40. Then that Parliament would not implement it. Then that it would be repealed. Then that there would be a second referendum. Then that the EU would not negotiate. Then that there would be no free trade deal. Then that any free trade deal would leave us under the control of EU Courts.
My little joke gets quite a few laughs. What I can’t quite get is that Remainers are repeating the same joke, but in all seriousness.
December 25, 2020
Look at it this way- we are now surrounded by borders and no go areas
Scotland has a Covid border with us- dress rehearsal for the future?
Wales the same
The French have closed the Channel Tunnel and Calais- means it can be done any time
and the Irish border has been moved to the Irish sea
What’s not to like?
December 25, 2020
All we need to to do now is to stop sending the ungrateful NI Scotland and Wales loads of money every year.
On top of the tens of billions now not going to the EU.
Make England a rich nation and the rest can manage without our money.