I rely a lot on official statistics to read trends and make policy suggestions to government. The problem is the figures themselves are very unreliable and need careful interpretation. Recent extreme movements caused by lockdown and closures on an unprecedented scale here and in most overseas economies makes it both revealing and hazardous to live by official figures. The experience has also blown apart many official forecasts, as the ranges are extreme and well outside past behaviours.
We have recently been told that there are over 5.5 million EU citizens living in the UK when throughout the referendum we were told it was around 3 million. We do not know how many illegals there are living here from around the globe. It means that the official figures for the population are likely to be understated by a substantial margin . This affects figures for public service provision. It may depress income per head unless there is an offsetting amount of undeclared income by the unregistered or partially registered. What are we to make of productivity, as clearly there are more workers but maybe more work is being done as well.
The inflation figures have been under stress. They are based on a typical basket of goods and services that people buy. Our buying habits were transformed by lockdown. Gradually the weights and contents of the basket were changed, only now to need changing back as we come out of lockdown. Trying to forecast the inflation index has meant first trying to forecast what will be in it before then trying to forecast price moves of the components.
Official forecasts of the economy went haywire over Brexit as I forecast at the time. A series of grim and stupid negative forecasts were duly proved wrong by events. Then the official forecasters greatly exaggerated the debt and deficits forecasts for the pandemic lockdown period. These were more difficult to get right.
During the pandemic as reported here it was very difficult getting accurate figures for NHS capacity, for death rates and other crucial figures, and difficult getting meaningful comparisons between countries. We need better and more honest data. A hospital admission does not tell us anything about how ill someone is, how long they will stay and whether they will need intensive care. We now learn some people said to be in hospital with COVID caught it in hospital.
We cannot have an informed public debate about health or the economy without better official figures from the state. We need those in the media citing the figures to understand what the figures are actually counting and how inaccurate they may be. We also need to allow for what appears to be bias in forecasts to underpin a policy choice or establishment opinion of what is happening. The economic forecasts over Brexit and COVID which displayed excessive pessimism might have been the result of bias more than incompetence. Some of the error was baked into assumptions used in models.
July 31, 2021
There is a very important but overlooked concept called FISCAL DILUTION.
Simply put. If you have more people in the country doing non-fiscal jobs. That means taking more out of the tax system than they put in then you have lower levels of Government service.
There is a direct and strong causal relationship between allowing low paid immigrant workers and lower levels of Government service. Yet low paid immigrant workers are welcomed by political parties whose policies are to provide better Government services. The contradiction between mandates and actions is stark.
July 31, 2021
Indeed we are roughly at the point where 50% of households pay less tax in than they personally get out in benefits and direct services they receive (such as school places, healthcare, housing and similar). The other 50% pick up the bills for this shortfall and indeed for all the rest of bloated government – police, defence, HS2, shit hill at Mable Arch, social services, roads, rail, the vast government waste, the migrants, the green lunacy …
July 31, 2021
You missed the big one. Pensions. The biggest single item of state expenditure is pensions – £100bn + per year – handouts to millions who, because they are mostly not earning anything, are not putting money back into the system.
Most of these pensioners take more out of the system than they ever put in. This makes the system completely unsustainable. There are only so many cruises those of us in work can fund each year.
PS: for those who accuse me of being ageist, it is not ageist to talk about problems with pensions. It is a debate which needs to be had but you all choose to put your heads in the sand.
July 31, 2021
“are not putting money back into the system” says economics expert young andy
Do you think pensioners take the money and just burn it?
July 31, 2021
“handouts to millions who, because they are mostly not earning anything, are not putting money back into the system.”
Because they paid all their working lives.
July 31, 2021
You are not so much agesit as stupid. Pensions are paid out of taxes, since we don’t bother with the foolish ficion of a “pension fund”, so people receiving a pension today paid in their share of taxes while they were working. The fact that they are not paying taxes now is irrelevant.
This is a perfect example of an “issue” that you keep trotting out, and you seem to learn nothing from the very good comments that correct you. Just repeating the same broken argument without ever admitting that it’s been refuted isn’t very honest.
July 31, 2021
Mostly the gold plated pensions of public sector workers are the problem, given pensions way beyond anything equivalent people in the private sector would be able to afford. And let’s not forget the immigrants who come here late in life and get state funds during their retirement having not worked long here long enough to make this financially viable for the rest of us to subsidize via the state.
July 31, 2021
Andy
Nothing to do with ageism just your poor knowledge and mathematical calculations.
If all those years of contributions were put into an average performing private pension fund, those pensioners would be getting at least double the pension they get from the State, and if at the same time it had been put in trust, then that fund would be outside of that persons estate, could be passed on after death, with no inheritance tax to pay.
At the moment with the State system if you die before pensionable age, then all of the contributions made are lost.
Happy now Andy.!
July 31, 2021
The 50% point was passed in 2013.
July 31, 2021
Yes, something needs to be done about the cash-in-hand economy, along the lines of what is done in the Mainland.
It is largely this which attracts clandestine immigration.
Tory-voting white van man might not like it though.
July 31, 2021
What I don’t understand is the transport industry are bleating about shortage of drivers as many Eastern Europeans have returned home yet 5.5 million have applied for settled status.
What are these 5.5 million doing because there’s been a marked reduction coming in our shop.
Are they all car cleaners.
I see 20% of the Romanian population now reside in the UK.
Farage was right all along.
July 31, 2021
The population of Romania is around 20 million.
Do one in fifteen people here – around four million – seem to you to be Romanian?
This has been refuted very effectively here already.
July 31, 2021
I consulted various versions of an Atlas, tried search engines but failed to find the territory called Mainland. Please explain, but on secod thoughts, it must be such a non-event -don’t bother.
July 31, 2021
Martin means ‘Festland Europa’. It is the customary German expression.
July 31, 2021
Only 3 white van drivers vote Tory.
By ‘the mainland’ I assume you mean the EU you are blindly in love with.
To take just a few examples- there is no black economy in Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal or Ireland. It is palpably untrue that large construction companies, domiciled in Ireland, circumvent tax rules. I could go on, but I am sure you can see your point is nonsense.
July 31, 2021
I am surprised at you Martin, I thought any well-read political animal would be well aware in Italy and Greece nobody pays tax. And in Spain and Portugal the few that have a job don’t earn enough to pay tax.
July 31, 2021
“It is largely this which attracts clandestine immigration.”
Eh? Are you really this foolish? They aren’t being attracted by generous benefits, rule of law, safe streets, education and prospects for their children?
You seem to imagine that being illegals makes them stupid and unable to see prospects for their future. Illegals are not stupid – they are doing the rational thing.
August 1, 2021
It is not possible to remain here illegally with the knowledge of the authorities.
So I can only assume that you are calling people who are here perfectly lawfully “illegals”.
It’s a pretty basic and serious error.
July 31, 2021
An obvious point well made.
All the low paid worker does is encourage low pay. Perhaps those jobs should be called state-subsidised jobs.
Speak to any recently arrived taxi driver (I get to meet lots.) Many will have large families and admit that their wages are a fraction of what the government is paying them. Most are OK but I’ve had to scream at drivers on three separate occasions to get them back on the right side of the road. I had to tell another not to drive at 100mph “But it is legal in my country.”
PS, Our company has had to set up a “bad driver” hotline. What does that tell you ? You – or anyone reading this – are far more likely to be hurt by an RNLI imported, unlicensed, driver than a rip tide.
July 31, 2021
What actually encourages low pay is mainly the tax and benefit system. Why pay someone more if they only end up keeping 5 to 15% of it after tax and benefit withdrawal and travel & child care due to the higher income. Also restrictive employments laws, planning laws, expensive energy and all the other red tape rammed onto businesses by government making them less productive and less competitive. Often I cannot get people to do overtime even at good hourly rates as they are so little better off when they do.
July 31, 2021
An article in the Times I think, a few weeks ago, stated that there are 1.2 Billion illegal migrants in the UK, as they compiled these figures for people who are under the radar, having no home and no job, so can’t access a go without a legal address, now tell me where these people are living, as they’re not on the streets in these numbers, so must be sofa surfing or whatever and they don’t want to say where they’re sleeping, so don’t want to get their people into trouble, these figures are huge and many of these people will be in the slave trade, as they’re illegal, they couldn’t register with a doctor for their covid jabs, that’s where the article got its figures from, the number is huge, but when you have these numbers, what is the government going to do about it???
July 31, 2021
Er, I think that might have been “million”, not “billion” Mandy.
July 31, 2021
I am surprised nobody has yet mentioned ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’.
As for relying on overseas statistics just look at the percentage of the vote claimed by many Third World kleptocrats.
‘We cannot have an informed public debate about health or the economy without better official figures from the state. ’you say.
However, public debate about covid seems to be unpopular with those in power. They would rather we just accepted their take on it and all the changes and U turns that accompany it.
July 31, 2021
Does fiscal dilution impact to a greater degree if the furloughed worker isn’t even in the UK and has spent the entire lockdown out of this Country? This is perhaps a big reason why bosses that say they can’t get their workers back in to work in hospitality and other previously furloughed business, the bosses need to remember they are in control of furlough and can stop it if someone refuses to come in to work, if they are sick that should be sick pay not furlough!
This big flush out of UK money means that it’s a complete drain and isn’t circulating back into the UK economy in local taxes, council taxes, goods and services that are all taxed and in turn generate general economic growth.
July 31, 2021
What about all the immigrant NON-workers? A burden. Why work when they get a better standard of living for getting here and doing nothig, than they had where they came from? Straw – camel – back.
July 31, 2021
sorry – ended up under wrong post
July 31, 2021
Re: actual UK population
15 years ago leading supermarkets were stating population was nearer 80 million. Government population figures were around 60 million. Government response at the time, was to accuse the population of extraordinary waste of food. Just how many families were buying nearly a third more food that they needed each week, every week? Utterly ridiculous accusation. At the time I remember, looking at my food waste, which consisted of vegetable peelings, apple cores and orange rind and thinking, yeah right…then someone, somewhere must have been buying nearly double what they needed every week to make up my shortfall.
The lies about the actual population size has been going on for at least 2 decades. Probably because the governments knew the indigenous people would quite rightly accuse them, at best, of their incompetence. These lies continue today, but they do go some way to explain why taxes keep going up, without any improvement on service provision. In fact it has got substantially worse.
I was absolutely gobsmacked when the NHS doctors stated (I think it was last year) they would refuse to charge foreigners for health services and the government effectively agreed and has allowed it to continue!
And that is just one area where there are ‘funny figures’.
July 31, 2021
Re the 5.5 million, our fellow Europeans who came here were generally fit, young, ready-educated, skilled and productive, therefore in a good position to start families here, and many of them have done that.
They need now to apply for settled status for their children too.
Also at any *one time* they will not all be here by any means, because most have retained strong links with their home countries, just as have the many UK people who have homes in Spain.
Why must the simplest things need explaining to you?
July 31, 2021
This statement of Martin’s should be quite simple for the treasury to confirm, they should just tell the citizens the facts, of the 5.5 million how much tax and national insurance are they contributing on average per person) how much are they receiving in benefits, including housing benefits, child benefits, child schooling etc. Student tuition fee loans and maintenance loans.
July 31, 2021
MiC
“Re the 5.5 million, our fellow Europeans who came here were generally fit, young, ready-educated, skilled and productive”
Work in industry, do you ?
The majority are far from educated or skilled. The reason why they’re popular with employers is because roles traditionally fulfilled by skilled British workers have been de-skilled to accomodate cheap labour by greedy employers with an obsessive resentment to paying proper and fair wages.
Which will ultimately bite industry on the arse, and when it does we’ll be too old and too settled in retirement to be bothered, and it will serve them right.
I wonder…..work in industry, do you ?
Clearly you are commenting on a subject on which you have no first hand experience and very little knowledge.
July 31, 2021
I apologise if I am simple. But 5.5 million applying for SETTLED status implies they have SETTLED here, made a life here and want to live here. It does not suggest to me, pardon my stupidity, that people who have ‘gone home’ actually want to settle here.
July 31, 2021
No, it means that the matter as to whether they have a right to remain here if they so choose is settled, and so their status in that regard is no longer subject to question.
It’s an easy mistake to make..
July 31, 2021
You are not telling the truth. To get settled status they did indeed have to show they were settled in the country. They had to prove five years of continuous residence. If non-continuous they get an intermediate form of pre-settled status. 4.9 million have been approved.
The word “settled” is not just jargon.
July 31, 2021
“Re the 5.5 million, our fellow Europeans who came here were generally fit, young, ready-educated, skilled and productive, therefore in a good position to start families here, and many of them have done that.”
And is that why the latest “crisis” is caused by so many of them being unable to fill in a form to get residence?
July 31, 2021
+1
July 31, 2021
J Bush
Not just supermarkets, the waste treatment works can advise how much additional waste they are treating every year as well, but does anyone take any notice , or even bother to do any sort of compilation, No.
I am shocked and dumfounded John, you mean the expensive once every 10 year Census form that we have to fill in under threat of fines and imprisonment, is not being completed by illegals who should not be here, well who would have thought that, how dishonest of them !
July 31, 2021
Alan Jutson
You are doing it again Alan, thinking outside the box. They just can’t keep up with what you are quite rightly saying.
July 31, 2021
Modern toilet designs can require multiple flushes that use more water than an effective design of the past. Thomas Crapper’s Thunderer really worked.
July 31, 2021
Mark
I was not thinking about the water content, although I do agree modern toilets often require more than one flush, which makes a complete nonsense of the claim that they use less water and are more efficient.
July 31, 2021
About ten years ago I read a very well-researched analysis that concluded there were around 2 million illegal immigrants in the UK. I can only suppose that by now that figure has topped the three million mark.
July 31, 2021
J Bush : “Re: actual UK population
15 years ago leading supermarkets were stating population was nearer 80 million.”
It is perhaps because the Government knows that we have a much bigger population size than they admit to us that they wish to continue with Covid restrictions longer than would appear to be necessary as the precentage of adults vaccinated is still well below that required for herd immunity to kick in.
July 31, 2021
The data isn’t dodgy if its serves an official purpose which is to deceive and misinform. As the now utterly offensive New Zealand government declared last month ‘the government is now the only source of truth’. This extends to the British State and organisations like Depts of State, civil service and the entire public sector including the NHS and legal professions That is beyond Orwellian and utterly unacceptable. It hasn’t been condemned by any government to date nor any British politician which doesn’t surprise.
The aim of the now discredited and highly politicised British Socialist State is to prevent an informed and accurate PUBLIC debate. By crushing open debate through the various methods of legislative and now intimidatory techniques the public (private and apolitical or some call pejoratively label them ‘the average man in the street’) recoils from any form of active and in many cases visible debate for fear of official reprisals and it now seems direct threats against those who dare to challenge the prevailing orthodoxy that covers many aspects of public life.
The nomenclature of the progressive poison is designed to control what is and what isn’t permissible debate. From terms like ‘tolerance’ which in practice equals silence (to destroy debate immigration, religious extremism and threats of violence) to vile terms like ‘equality’ and ‘diversity’ which are divide and conquer techniques, highly political and in no way translate into their original meaning.
Of course this deliberate and politically inspired destruction of open and informed debate is both beneficial to the brigands that encompass Labour, the unions and their thugs that tolerate no dissent and indeed to the Tory party that remain silent on many issues to avert blame knowing but not taking sides and allowing others to take the flak can continually insulate themselves from any form of slander or condemnation.
Both parties and indeed agents of the State (and its outriders lie Twitter and the slavish media and some celebrities) are directly and indirectly, in the case of the Tory party, to blame for the thuggishness, the climate of fear and the subtle use of threat to crush damaging debate
We are living through a period in history that in decades to come will be seen as a watershed in which Marxism will be seen to have succeeded in its primary aim, the destruction of human morality and privacy by State ownership of our bodies, our minds and our souls and our property
July 31, 2021
Frightening isn’t it DOM.
July 31, 2021
The left always screams “conspiracy” because it has an agenda to hide.
The Marxist who appears hypocritical is not. It is simply down to the above…a hidden agenda.
I doubt if any government has really not understood that there are many number-bending, left wing gremlins in the system.
That is where the govt’s terror of the right comes from because the right’s power would lie ( if allowed) in exposing the things that have to be hidden from the sheeple.
I note that PP is up to the old “child migrant” routine yet again. What with the RNLI stuff govt. will be sheeple-nudging into acts of great charity I expect. Charity begins at home, my dear politicians!
July 31, 2021
A tough read but absolutely true.
The fact is that there are lots of different ‘twitter storms’ – the Govt just decides which is important and those happen to be the ones that push towards totalitarianism.
The BBC is at the forefront.
Shockingly it used four social media louts to smear 50 odd million England supporters and ruin what should have been a week of celebration of our multicultural football squad. The BBC does not want unity. Claire Balding asked Adam Peaty during the Olympics “Have you noticed any racism since you’ve had a mixed race child ?”
What the hell does she think she’s doing ?
One of our sons has an Indian fiancee. No. We have not seen one shred of racism during our many meetings. Quite the reverse. She’s been the life and soul of any gathering.
July 31, 2021
Dom : I agree.
Marxism is slavery by the state.
There is no buying and selling of slaves because the state owns everybody.
July 31, 2021
DOM
“……recoils from any form of active and in many cases visible debate for fear of official reprisals and it now seems direct threats against those who dare to challenge the prevailing orthodoxy that covers many aspects of public life.”
Dont’t waste your time trying to debate with what quisling Johnson has sneaked through the back door, it doesn’t work. Better keep quiet, go about your daily business, refuse to comply as long as possible – take issues right to the wire, be as self sufficient as you can …..and always be ready to use your fists but never forget British sense of fair play.
It’s the only way to get through life.
July 31, 2021
Well said Dom. We have a corrupt government and administration. morally and in many meaures financially too. They are unprincipled elitist and authoritarian.
Where are those in positions of power and influence who know change and resistance is needed? We have moved past debate in these matters, real plain-speakimg leaders are needed.
There is one but he is hated and subverted by the establishment and its hangers on who often claim decency but dare not raise their heads or voices high enough.
July 31, 2021
The New Zealand government IS just about the only source of truth as to what are the proper measures to take against covid19, what it has actually done, and why it has done this.
Unsurprisingly, it remains very popular and respected among its people.
The internet is full of deliberately fallacious sources such as yourself trying to misrepresent it on the other hand.
Now, that, absolutely, is “utterly offensive”.
July 31, 2021
One day New Zealand will have to open up itself to the world.
Then we will see what happens.
July 31, 2021
Yes, by then they will have vaccinated their people and saved thousands of lives by their exemplary actions up to that point.
Apparently that will be to your bitter, resentful disappointment however.
July 31, 2021
I gather the sheep are very happy with the situation as it is.
July 31, 2021
MiC – The NZ government is also the source of a lot of money used to buy people’s compliance, a NZ$ 12.1 billion ‘business continuity package’, or furlough scheme. Pro rata to the UK population, that’s the equivalent of £84 billion. They can’t keep that up for much longer, and the business failures will increase. In autumn 2020, they were already running at twice the previous year’s figure. The Covid crisis isn’t only about public health, and New Zealanders too will soon discover that.
July 31, 2021
They don’t need to keep it up for much longer – the vaccines are here.
And they have saved countless lives by their magnificent efforts – unlike this and many other countries.
Not only that but life internally has been kept pretty normal for its people.
July 31, 2021
They are like a UK person isolating.
Hiding away in their home.
NZ has been isolating for over year.
One day they are going to have to rejoin the world.
To open their ports and airports to business traffic and tourism.
Before their government runs out of money.
August 1, 2021
Yes the time difference remains intact, about 30 years behind the rest of the world.
July 31, 2021
Good luck with that one JR. Johnson wishes to continue taking in what france doesn’t want. He believes in waffle, obfuscation and mealy – mouthed white wash.
Johnson, and Patel for that matter, don’t want the real statistics known.
July 31, 2021
Lies, hot air, fake promises and pathetic distraction policies is their agenda certainly on migrants.
July 31, 2021
+100
July 31, 2021
Just heard Sir Roger Gale MP on Talk Radio talking complete drivel about forcing vaccines on to young people. I assume he is just innumerate cannot do risk calculations unless he is just lying perhaps? Best for the Tories to keep people like this pompous, old deluded & dope off the media I would suggest. Vaccine for the old seem to make sense, but under about 25 not so ~ unless you have special conditions perhaps, and almost certainly not if you have already had Covid.
July 31, 2021
Lifelogic, this man is only trying to help local business in his constituency, as his record shows:
‘North Thanet`s MP, Roger Gale, has expressed great dismay following today`s announcement that Pfizer are to close the Sandwich based R&D facility.’ (2011)
‘ Good to see that Pfizer_UK at Sandwich has risen from the ashes and is on the up again: world-leading research and development offering high-grade jobs for young scientists has to be excellent news for East Kent.’ (Roger Gale, 2020)
July 31, 2021
1.2 Billion illegal immigrants were cited as not being able to have a gp appointment for a covid vaccine, as they don’t have a permanent place of address, I think it was in the Times a few weeks ago, or another posh paper with, so if they have the figures, why doesn’t the government have the figures too???
Reply Surely not billion
July 31, 2021
The birth rate within illegals appears much higher.
July 31, 2021
“Reply Surely not billion”
Try living in our world and it will feel like it.
July 31, 2021
LL
“Lies, hot air, fake promises and pathetic distraction policies is their agenda certainly on migrants. ”
It’s Johnson’s agenda on just about every policy, LL.
July 31, 2021
The numbers coming from France are small compared with those who historically landed normally at airports on visas from around the world and then simply never returned, having melted into the crowd.
We have no good idea how many such people there are, because the Tories never properly implemented eBorders, which would have counted people in and then counted them out again.
However, the detection incidence of clandestine immigrants shows far more of such cases than of smuggled people.
July 31, 2021
Did the Welsh count you in? Just asking.
July 31, 2021
The price of a legitimate ticket on low cost airlines is very small, at least people with visa’s and passport checks are known, registered and in the system, this must be tightened up and the conservative and labour governments have failed us turning a blind eye to this unmonitored outflow/inflow for decades. However, these people smuggling in to the UK dangerously without documents are a much more serious problem.
July 31, 2021
“e Borders” was a project brought in by the then Labour government in 2007. It was hoped that information on all passengers entering and leaving the UK could be achieved by 2014.
The Tories took over in 2010, remember?
July 31, 2021
Tracy, why is a person who is here illegally because they have outstayed a visa, and are now working cash-in-hand undetected a far less serious problem than someone who entered in a lorry and is now doing the same?
There are a far, far greater number of the first.
August 2, 2021
I did reply Mic it didn’t get through moderation. At least people arriving with passports in airports have checks that they are legitimate, where they come from, who they are, their details. In a boat we have no idea who they are as they arrive without papers from goodness knows where with goodness knows what background.
July 31, 2021
What has it got to do with you, you are in Wales and should keep quiet about English matters.
July 31, 2021
I assume you agree that we should all have identity cards with draconian fines for anyone employing someone who does not have an identity card. After all, we don’t want to encourage tax evasion, exploitation and low pay. Am I right?
July 31, 2021
In principle, yes.
July 31, 2021
And all these people who arrived and simply “melted into the crowd”? Will they obtain these identity cards?
And if they can get one, why didn’t they simply come in legally? If they can survive without one, what’s the point?
August 1, 2021
There are rather a lot of “if”s there old flower.
July 31, 2021
“The numbers coming from France are small compared with those who historically landed normally at airports on visas from around the world and then simply never returned, having melted into the crowd.”
If they melted into the crowd, how can you tell us how many there are or what proportion they make up?
August 1, 2021
For one reason or another – illness etc. – people who are secretly here get discovered from time to time.
The figures show that most of those fall into that category.
July 31, 2021
This doubt over almost every official statistic suits the Government. When policy becomes criticised over time, the decisions can be supported by claims of statistics used at the time were sound, now with the benefit of hindsight, or correction, all can be presented as fine.
Jokes about dodgy abacus, old corrupt spreadsheets, missing people in the counts who are vertically challenged, dropped zeroes and disproportionate representation on graphs means people in general make that knowing smile, or sometimes dismissive grin when faced with official numbers.
July 31, 2021
John’s post is, I think, misleading.
There have been 5.5 million applications for settled status from our fellow Europeans.
That does not in any way mean that there are that number living here at all, any more than the number of UK people who have a right to live in Spain means that every one of them is there at any one time either. Few sever their links with their home country, and many spend a large part of their time there.
There may be many who have that status who have changed their minds about wanting to live here and left permanently too.
There certainly seems to be a shortage of lorry drivers, hospitality staff, harvesters and the like, doesn’t there?
July 31, 2021
“There certainly seems to be a shortage of lorry drivers, hospitality staff, harvesters and the like, doesn’t there?”
You just got done telling us how young, fit and well educated EU immigrants are, with young families, and now they are harvesters and lorry drivers?
You just post the clever spin on each issue and never try to be consistent between posts.
August 1, 2021
I said also “skilled”.
Do you not think that lorry driving and harvesting are skills?
Our own people seem incapable of it don’t they?
August 1, 2021
No, Martin are own people are very capable they just refuse to work for the lowest rates, sleeping for weeks in the cab, using the tyres as urinals (had one outside my office window the other week as I was shutting the blind at home time) and wet wipes to have a wash. How do you know that we aren’t short of drivers because imports are down, they used to sweep up and stay a week doing round robins around the UK mainland for back load rates. I don’t believe the figures of the HGV driver shortage there is no way there are 100,000 less drivers on our roads every weekday. I keep asking for clarification and no-one provides it, is 100,000 individual deliveries including short trips? 100,000 per week, per month?
Furlough needs investigating now, especially if any on furlough are drivers, harvesters, people who aren’t even in the Country but are being paid furlough.
July 31, 2021
Well we don’t need to keep all those foreign lorry drivers employed, we are buying less from EU, and we need less food on the shelves – especially the Polish, Romanian and other European shops since many went home. I think there is a shortage of customers for hospitality for reasons you repeat constantly, and all the fields I see ( miles from the concrete jungle of Wokingham) all seem harvested beautifully. I imagine there isn’t a lot of harvesting done in Cardiff?
July 31, 2021
MiC
“There certainly seems to be a shortage of lorry drivers, hospitality staff, harvesters and the like, doesn’t there?”
Especially during fine weather.
July 31, 2021
MiC
“John’s post is, I think, misleading. ”
Yep, I thought so too, albeit for different reasons.
July 31, 2021
The upshot is that government is blundering about in the dark – like everyone else – as to what the future holds. Cashflow is as reliable a guide as any for calculating the impact of change as it is occurring – whether in a personal, business or government context. Our family cashflow tells me that significant inflation is affecting our spending. My expectation is that what goes up will stay up. Central banker assurances that the current inflation spike is temporary is no comfort; that merely confirms my belief that the higher prices are here to stay. That is likely to be the best outcome. The worst outcome would be a continued rate of high inflation. That is clearly government policy as it piles on a £trillion plus in its mad dash to achieve “net zero”, the ultimate fool’s errand. How long before there will be a reckoning in the ballot box? Or will MPs pluck up the courage to do something themselves before that day of reckoning by the voter; on the evidence so far most seem to have their heads firmly buried in the sand.
July 31, 2021
+1
July 31, 2021
Oldtimer
Exactly, do your finances based on historical fact, and known figures at the very least, clearly that is easier for a household than for government, as it is a weekly/monthly known expenditure calculation, but the government seem to rely upon pie in the sky guesswork, and then wonder why the figures have to constantly be adjusted/manipulated.
July 31, 2021
Oldtimer
In the sand?????
July 31, 2021
Good morning.
As a follower of John Cowperthwaite I deplore government statistics. I have stated here that the ONS should be shut down for what little good such information it provides. For example:
Well of course they are because :
a) It is politically embarrassing.
b) There is no real way of finding out since we no longer count people both in and out.
What the above statement from our kind host cleverly fails to admit is, the number of people who have ‘legally’ entered the country from non-EU countries. Those numbers are believed to be even higher than from those from the EU.
Measuring Inflation has also changed from CPI to CPIH by the Tories in 2013. I would imagine this was further harmonising with the EU.
The best figures for inflation, if you are going to produce such thing, is to include all those things we all have to pay for. Eg. The Council Tax. They Mayors Precipt (inflation busting that). Defence and Security. The Civil Service. The NHS. National, devolved and local governments. We can also include payments to the EU. All costs that have to be met – somehow !
It was ‘figures’ from a well know individual who has a very bad track record of producing anything reliable, and our media and gullible government that got us into this mess in the first place. So to return to my first sentence – I deplore statistics.
July 31, 2021
Yes Mark B, the ONS deserves to be closed. It lost credibility with the departure of the former Chief Statistician Dame Jil Matheson, who declined to fiddle the Retail Prices Index formulae and so defraud existing holders of RPI-linked contracts. Chancellors Javid and Sunak authorised a subsequent Chief Statistician to proceed with the fraud: shame on them.
However, if it is closed, will it be replaced with anything better? Is the Financial Conduct Authority noticably different from its Financial Services Authority predecessor?
July 31, 2021
Indeed, official statistics can be very misleading indeed and often it is rather hard and very time consuming to get to the bottom of how they even recorded or obtained any figures. Then these figures are further spun and distorted by politicians for political reasons. Also further mangled by many innumerate and unscientific journalist, authors and others. They are also selective in what they choose to record. This so as not to have figures that are politically embarrassing.
How many people who died of Covid received any hospital care or any intensive care for example. I have seen figures that suggest that as many as eight out of nine received no intensive care. How many did not even get palliative care from “our” dire NHS? What proportion of Covid victims caught Covid in hospital having been admitted for other reasons?
How many extra people died due the abject failure of JVCI to vaccinate in a rational order to reflecting gender risk. This is surely well over 1000 and fairly easy to determine. Will there be a group legal action from their widows?
Perhaps the most important things to determine are how much tax receipts will decline when this socialist, tax increasing, green crap pushing government increases taxes even (further from the current hugely over taxes position) and the extent of the huge economic damage that will be done by the £Trillion+ net zero lunacy. Perhaps then we can stop it. But unlikely they will bot even cancel HS2 and Boris ever want to continue his road blocking cycle lane insanity.
July 31, 2021
The Government’s deliberate misuse of statistical data is criminal.
Lying to the house with misrepresentation is rampant.
Misinterpretation by politicians is rife.
We don’t trust you.
And the Office for National Statistics very rarely says anything about how their data is misused.
The establishment has abandoned facts in favour of lying: ‘the ends justify the means’.
July 31, 2021
+1
July 31, 2021
Rather than the media what about the government challenging the rubbish they are basing their policies on. Inconsistent and incoherent based on bogus science refusing to admit their mistakes that everyone else can see.
And talking of denial, we now see the seeds sown re pandemic planning when the elderly were going to be, in effect euthanised by the back door, through ‘do not resuscitate’ and straight on to ‘the pathway’ policies that resulted in thousands of unnecessary deaths. Cummings was right and HMG again in denial supported by its MPs.
And in other news as we see the triple lock manifesto commitment got round, no doubt the spinners are already working out they can pull the wool over our eyes, we see 2 billion plus wasted on a tank, five times the original weight, people using it all needing medical treatment, too big for transport aircraft, gun only to be fired when stationary and only goes half the required speed. Ben Wallace clucking about like a hen spluttering we want our money back, no chance.,ex senior army personnel just happen to work for the manufacturer. Chumocracy and incompetence.
Now where gave we heard that before.,
July 31, 2021
Even if the figures were accurate politically motivated people wouldn’t believe them. Note how the BBC and Sky don’t believe the current Covid daily case numbers because they are going down rather than up. They only believe data which supports their political aims.
July 31, 2021
If the UK was a real company there would be massive changes needed to bring it back from the brink of real decline. At present the CEO and his directors and the people controlling the back room teams are all living with where the sun doesn’t shine. Data good or bad has to be in the open and discussed with the workforce otherwise there is no way they can rise to the challenge that is required. The data has to be above all accurate (honest) . For too long the statisticians have been living in La La Land thinking they can keep the deception going. Truth always out. Massive changes Sir John in either mindset and application or a change of the CEO and his board.
July 31, 2021
My a chief Constable once said when questioned on rising crime in the Thames Valley, “ I know figures show that crime is rising, but the rate it is rising is falling.” Oh my word that did it for me.
July 31, 2021
The Left have their own “truth”.
Which may account for a great deal!
July 31, 2021
There are often simple explanations for the at-first-sight anomalies, which John uses to suggest that these figures are highly unreliable, and that reality is very different from the official position.
There will be some range of uncertainty unavoidably, but the qualifications supplied with the official figures are generally reasonable.
John seems to try to perpetuate and to amplify any public misconception which might be politically useful, however socially damaging that might be, I think.
July 31, 2021
Perhaps you could give us some of your background, MIC, that makes you believe you are better-equipped to analyse official data than someone with a fine educational background and who has been an assiduous and meticulous MP for decades?
July 31, 2021
I don’t think the public have misconceived anything. They know official figures are massaged bunkum.
‘How are we going to spin this?’
July 31, 2021
Alternatively, he may be, and probably is, right.
July 31, 2021
Well, ONS say that there were 370,000 give or take up to 31,000 Romanians in the country at their last estimate.
That differs rather from the silly viral claim that 20% of Romania’s population – of around 20,000,000, that is 4,000,000 – are here, and I’d like to read some basis for that fanciful assertion just for entertainment value.
You’re as capable of looking up these things as John or I are.
July 31, 2021
Are you counting the unknown numbers of those who simply “melted into the crowd”, as you told us earlier, or are they now “not the point”?
August 1, 2021
Those people come from non-European Countries.
Why would Europeans, who have had years to apply for proper status – along with all its entitlements – subject themselves to those conditions?
What an inane post.
July 31, 2021
You just got done telling us that immigrants have been arriving on visas and simply “melting into the crowd” and now you are arguing that the official figures are reliable.
Once again you post your spin on each issue in isolation, and you don’t try to be consistent between posts.
July 31, 2021
MiC
“John seems to try to perpetuate and to amplify any public misconception which might be politically useful, however socially damaging that might be, I think.”
I honestly don’t think that’s the way he works.
July 31, 2021
The only way to ensure that we know who is living in the country is to have some form of compulsory biometric ID card and ensure it is produced when various services are required. Healthcare being the one most people require at some point. It has always been a nonsense that government employees in the NHS refuse to check ID and whether a patient is entitled to free treatment. They should realise that they are taxpayers too and are funding the treatment of those not entitled to it.
Illegal immigrants should be issued with an ID card on arrival with a graphic that makes their temporary status obvious. A bright red border, for example ?
Almost everyone now carries a debit card for cashless transactions. Any of these could double as the biometric ID.
July 31, 2021
Illegal immigrants are generally deported.
Those allowed to stay have been found to be here lawfully after due process.
Which sinks your comment, basically.
July 31, 2021
Well that isn’t true MiC
It is estimated that there might be a million illegals in the UK
There are about 10,000 deportations per year on average over the last few years.
So illegals are not “generally deported”
July 31, 2021
Read the OP just for once.
It referred only to such arrivals as are detected.
An unknown number living here undetected by definition are not the subject of that post nor of my reply.
July 31, 2021
So illegals are generally deported except for the ones that are not deported, who are “not the point”?
July 31, 2021
You are being pedantic
We only deport a tiny percentage of the numbers of illegal immigrants in the UK
You stated “illegal immigrants are generally deported”
That is ridiculously wrong.
August 1, 2021
The poster said “issued on arrival” for goodness’ sake.
July 31, 2021
“Illegal immigrants are generally deported.”
A minute or two ago you told us that immigrants arrive on visas and simply “melt into the crowd” and now you are claiming that they are mostly deported.
You have a spin you think is clever for each aspect of the issue, but your spin is inconsistent from post to post.
July 31, 2021
nonsense and you know it.
July 31, 2021
Chris perhaps the government should tie it in with their pay enhancements do you think the freebies would continue then in their own free time?
July 31, 2021
+10
July 31, 2021
Funny figures indeed. Most of us now go by an Empirical model, and most of this site are sceptical enough to go by that rather than belive government/NHS/official “truth”..
If you hear and see people dying in the street of Covid, you get worried. If you hear and see nobody, know nobody, and know nobody who knows anybody with it, you don’t worry regardless of the doom and gloom and high figures.
When you see and hear of people being let down by GPs, you know it’s the case. You don’t need some figures of people seen or spoken to by GPs to confirm the opposite.
When you see prices skipping up for multiple goods and services, know that people are on full wages but you can’t get hold of anybody to do a job of work, see houses being bought at a gallop, you know money id too easy and inflation is there and will follow.
July 31, 2021
Perhaps you could ask JR to tell you how many National Insurance numbers are currently in issue; and, how many NHS patient identification numbers have been issued. From October 2002, every baby born in England and Wales has been issued with their own NHS Number from birth.
July 31, 2021
Once unreliability is the accepted norm for Official Statistics, of course the way is opened to corrective adjustments that can be designed to serve the wishes of those conjuring them up. Eventually no-one will believe the numbers produced.
Sir Diamond and his national statisticians should surely have sought ways to gather better data in their day to day work than bother with the Census 2020.
July 31, 2021
The reliabilities or analysed accuracies are published with the figures.
You can either use those sensibly, or make silly claims, or ignore them completely and substitute your own wild imaginings.
John seems to me to be encouraging you to do those last two.
July 31, 2021
Silly claims and wild imaginings. What, like your contention that illegals are generally deported? How about giving some figures t back up your claim?
August 1, 2021
It’s a simple question of definition.
If a person arrives by boat onto the English coast then you – without any supporting evidence call that person an “illegal”.
However, if they claim asylum and that is upheld, then they are here lawfully, and furthermore never entered unlawfully either.
So, quite rightly, they will not be deported, however much you might hate that and mislabel them.
July 31, 2021
You tell us that immigrants arrive on visas and simply “melt into the crowd” so that we don’t know how many there are, and now you claim we can have accuracy estimates?
July 31, 2021
But those reliabilities and accuracies are only guesses as to how reliable and accurate the original figures are MiC
So not accepting the inaccurate statistics we are given is a sensible reaction.
July 31, 2021
MiC
“John seems to me to be encouraging you to do those last two.”
+1
July 31, 2021
We have had revisions to immigration statistics that have gone way outside the published confidence levels, and that’s just the official versions. Immigration statistics are currently paused altogether, with no new data published for the past year. The old methodology is being discarded. Nothing is in place to replace it. So we are left with little more than wild imaginings. Now, I happen to think that we have seen a dramatic, if temporary, reversal in immigration, probably with a small amount of net emigration over the course of the pandemic (the last released figures relate to Q1 2020), based on my own observation of hearing fewer people speaking foreign languages on the streets, and reports of certain labour shortages in areas recently mainly filled by immigrant labour. What’s your wild imagining on the picture?
July 31, 2021
Yes, it must be very frustrating indeed, SJR, when your work depends on getting reliable information from this government and its agencies.
As I posted yesterday, NHS England used to provide information on the number of cancelled hospital operations. It hasn’t done that any more since February 2020, according to its website. Apparently no-one in the £multi-billion health sector is now able to compile the figures, despite the NHS – led by Johnson’s old university chum Simon Stevens – having more administrators than ever. I wonder what you and your fellow MPs think about that, when the issue comes up of your constituents’ cancelled operations.
July 31, 2021
Very well said — YET this applies to all aspects of government – has done for decades.
When did the MoD get any estimates right for hardware – when did NHS projects come in on close to original estimate – When the final cost of HS2 is known it is likely to be many times the price we were told it would be. Nothing comes in on budget.
We can partially rule out incompetence – Nobody could be so useless. We cannot rule out a deliberate policy of underestimating costs to get them off the ground and to a point where they are too costly to cancel!
This could be said to be down to the way everything is now managed by psychology to present the best image to the public. Certainly there is enough evidence to see that we are only told what the government wants us to know, and I feel that also applies to MP’s in the briefings they get.
Official figures, for example over covid, are not just made confusing, they are manipulated and made to mean different things at different times.
It IS time the government got honest with us – a difficult task given that there have been so many lies over the years….. But they really should stop hoodwinking us through their massive use of psychology.
July 31, 2021
Government projects end up over-budget because they pay using other people’s money.
July 31, 2021
They are generally underquoted in order that the Treasury will o.k. it. If the true costs were known at the outset, these government schemes like HS2 would never get done. It happens to just about everything the government does so I can see no other plausible explanation. Anyone ever heard of a government scheme coming in on budget and time?
July 31, 2021
HA2 was originally budgeted at a little over 100 guineas.
July 31, 2021
Strange how over the past 15 or so years no politician has thought…
“My, my, this little island seems a tad crowded.”
Or over the last 16 months…
“Zounds! I don’t see people dropping like damned flies in the street and my great aunt Dora is as fit as a fiddle!”
The rest of us did!
But we kept it a secret too.
Because WE have been gagged!
July 31, 2021
Funny, I walked for miles, along footpaths through the Oxfordshire countryside a couple of weeks back and didn’t see a soul.
Would you say that Australia – a whole continent of just twenty million people – is “crowded”?
Because median house price has just hit £750,000 in Sydney (gbp).
I think that this shows that it’s market outlook and availability of credit which are the main determinants of prices, not hectares-per-person.
July 31, 2021
Another of your odd ideas MiC
Huge increases in Australia’s population over the last 20 years which is packed into just a few main cities is the major cause.
I agree cheap money with interest rates falling from 6% to almost zero has been a driver but demand from more people is the big one.
July 31, 2021
“Funny, I walked for miles, along footpaths through the Oxfordshire countryside a couple of weeks back and didn’t see a soul.”
What a completely fatuous comment. There are areas of wilderness close to New York City. In fact, people have died and not been found for long periods of time in Central Park. The fact that you can find a place where you don’t see anyone is irrelevant.
July 31, 2021
Surely you can’t be saying that this country is not more crowded than it was 15 years ago?
Do you only ever use footpaths?
July 31, 2021
The few main cities are indeed crowded, but the outback and part desert is empty – thought you’d know that Martin. Do some research – or hope to travel there.
July 31, 2021
+1
IMO there are two, possibly three reasons why there has been this rush to anyone vaccinated as soon as possible. Despite all the fear tactics, the latest being the threat of internal passports directed at the younger generations, who are at little risk anyway. Culminating in Gove calling the unvaccinated selfish!
1. Burial and cremation data is usually available by late spring/early summer the following year. FOI requests have been submitted for the period 2015 – 2020 inclusive. These evidence last years deaths are within that average for above period. So, where are all the bodies?
2. The effects of this experimental gene therapy would start being noticed. which they now are.
I also think there is a third reason driving the rush, but as you point out, WE have been gagged.
July 31, 2021
+1
Agree totally.
July 31, 2021
‘How do we spin this?’
That’s the only question politicians ask. New Labour were experts. The Tories are copying them.
July 31, 2021
Much truth in this, where do we find a John Cowperthwaite we need one now?
July 31, 2021
It is quite obvious.
We have a housing crisis, a schools crisis, a dentists crisis, a transport crisis, a hospitals crisis, a water crisis, an energy crisis… and on.
It’s also very visible.
There are a LOT more people in the UK than the Government claims.
July 31, 2021
Halved prison sentences for a double jab?
Can this be true?
If so …WHY?
We know the govt. has no care for our health and that the jabs still necessitate masks etc.
So WHY? It is very disturbing. Cui bono? Certainly not the economy or Joe Public.
Is the blue wall getting a bit shaky? Seems so.
I’d be surprised if it weren’t!
July 31, 2021
Sir John, this discussion is useful, in that it confirms the ACTUAL state of things, which is far nearer to the TRUTH than any official narrative!
July 31, 2021
One way to question official stats and get a feel for real population numbers is to look at the number of prescriptions issued per year and also the number of National Insurance numbers in existence
July 31, 2021
Unusually on topic, I note that Lord Empey has quoted an incorrect figure in this article:
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/ni-protocol-vastly-out-of-proportion-to-scale-of-threat-to-eu-says-lord-empey-3328561
“NI Protocol ‘vastly out of proportion’ to scale of threat to EU, says Lord Empey”
“UUP Peer Lord Empey says a report on the NI Protocol demonstrates how “vastly out of proportion” the threat of GB-NI trade would be to the single market – as it would make up only 0.0008% of the EU economy.”
When I checked that claim, as is my wont, I found that in 2018 goods imported into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK were valued at £10.4 billion while the EU had a GDP around £12 trillion, so that would be about 0.09% rather than 0.0008%.
Of course it wouldn’t make much difference to the attitude of the EU or the Irish government whether the maximum risk to the EU Single Market was at the miniscule 0.0008% level or it was about a hundred times greater at the minute 0.09% level; more to the point, why have UK politicians gone along with it?
To be fair to Lord Empey, the error was not his but had been made either by the professor he cites or by the Lords sub-committee rapporteur:
https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/7001/documents/72888/default/
“209. Professor Shirlow said that the EU needed to take account of the modest risk that Northern Ireland posed to the integrity of the Single Market: “We have a limited air, road and port infrastructure and … it is very easy to monitor the east-west movement of goods. It is a small place. If goods at risk are at the heart of the EU’s understanding, surely it must understand infrastructural scale.
210. Professor Shirlow added that the £13 billion total value of East-West movement of goods amounted to 0.0008% of the EU’s GDP. The EU needed to be cognisant of the core importance of the East-West relationship for the Northern Ireland economy and to ask itself: “’Why is this being so overengineered?’ … If you want to support the peace process, you will have as much frictionless movement as you can on the east- west chain of movement of goods, especially from Great Britain … It cannot just be a process of looking at rules and regulations.””
Here is another relevant statistic:
https://facts4eu.org/news/2021_jul_eu_laughing_stock
“N.I.’s exports over the border are only 1/500th of total entering EU Single Market”
Once again that is not exactly true but it is close enough to make the point that Brussels/Dublin have been allowed to make a huge mountain out of a tiny molehill on the Irish land border, and the question is why UK politicians went along with that deception.
July 31, 2021
You have always been clear about your doubts over published statistics. The real problem we face though, is not just the poor quality of the numbers, but the fact that very few of your colleagues are either interested in or capable of, questioning the figures provided to them on which to base their decisions. This applies at the very top: why, even now, is it left to the newspapers to question the patently useless ‘Modelling’ by Imperial College of the future flow of the Covid pandemic when it has repeatedly been exposed as over pessimistic, largely for the simple reason that it is based on out of date numbers?
July 31, 2021
A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS asking:
“Please can you give me the total number of UK deaths in 2020?
I would also like to point out that it is very concerning to not be able to find on your website the number of deaths caused by heart attacks, heart disease, cancers, Alzheimer’s/dementia for 2020 compared to the past 3 years.”
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totaldeathsintheukin2020anddeathsfromheartattacksheartdiseasecancerandalzheimersanddementia2016to2020
The ONS reply returned the figures for 2016 to 2019 showing the leading causes of death and it was easy to compare the trends from one year to the next. This was not so when looking at the 2020 figures which showed a different set of death causes which made it impossible to follow a trend and did not answer the question the person had asked.
For some reason, we are seeing statistics being manipulated by our Government.
July 31, 2021
Curiouser and curiouser!
Bizarre recategorising of causes of death.
Someone has put a Hell of a lot of effort into making ONS figures totally useless.
July 31, 2021
John, well said.
Norman Lamonts autobiography said one of the most difficult things about being chancellor was the rubbish quality of figures he was given. Nothing has changed. Those on the public payroll responsible still getting paid handsomely.
July 31, 2021
You would assume that in these hi-tech days of computerisation, it would be fairly easy to obtain accurate data and you have to wonder why the govt fails to do so.
Is it incompetence, stupidity or are the conspiracy theorists right and there is something sinister going on ?
For example, their policies on covid rely largely on the numbers of ‘cases’ which are determined by tests which many experts claim are not accurate and can be manipulated by school children and a can of cola. We have also recently seen that the hospitalisation and death numbers include those that died of covid and those that died of other causes after a positive covid test.
No wonder, we are losing confidence in the govt and their so-called advisers. I think that I would rather rely on some fairground fortune teller for an more accurate picture of what is going on !
July 31, 2021
Maylor
“or are the conspiracy theorists right and there is something sinister going on ? ”
Depends upon the theory, but yes, there is something sinister going on.
I’d hedge a bet the oil is running out…but deceitful governments, like ours, haven’t got the guts to come clean and admit it. Hence why also the big oil companies don’t seem to be protecting their interests in fact some even promoting oil obsolescence.
July 31, 2021
First two sentences John.
Official statistics – and – very unreliable.
Says it all.
July 31, 2021
We were told that proceeding with “Freedom Day” would result in 100,000 and perhaps 200,000 Covid cases/day.
This has not happened.
So hopefully the public will realise that the Government’s chosen modellers are useless and begin to question if the models predicting the planet will self-destruct if we (the UK) do not ruin our economy, social cohesion and democracy with attempting the technologically unattainable zero carbon by 2050 are in fact accurate.
July 31, 2021
O/T but relevant to funny figures.
This morning I received an A4 envelope containing an extraordinary amount of paperwork from the ONS inviting the “residents(s)” at my address to “take part in the biggest nationwide survey of Covid-19 infections.” This means taking weekly nose and throat tests and “at the moment, the survey is running until April 2022.”
I know the Johnson regime are desperate to up the number of tests to justify continued dictatorial control, but really this is becoming just a tad too obvious! It also comes across as an exercise in targeting those who may get missed elsewhere and is a humongous waste of taxpayers money.
I shan’t be taking up this ‘offer’, so in theory, that should be the last of it. Perhaps I will be considered ‘selfish’ for declining. 🙂 I will keep you posted if I am contacted again in an attempt to ‘encourage’ me change my mind.
July 31, 2021
I look at the results every week:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30july2021
It is reckoned to be the most reliable indicator of the levels of Covid infection in the general population.
July 31, 2021
Just because 5.5m EU citizens applied for settled status does not mean 5.5m are living here. Settled status effectively gives them the right to free movement – the right the Tories stole from us – it is very valuable so of course lots of people will apply of it.
Lots of younger Europeans used to come here for a few years after school or university to learn better English, make some new friends and have a different life experience. Some went to university. Most were never going to stay indefinitely, it’s just something young people. Young Britons used to do the same in Europe – but the Tories removed that right so they mostly now can’t. Your grandchildren can’t now go to work in France or Italy for 6 months because you voted to stop them doing so.
Agricola proves the point. He is British but lives a lot of the time in Spain. He made sure he protected his right to come and go as he pleased even as he voted to remove that right from others.
There really aren’t 5.5m Europeans here but we appreciate Brexitists need funny figures to try to justify their failed project.
July 31, 2021
Yes, it’s interesting that John says “We have recently been told that there are over 5.5 million EU citizens living in the UK”.
“Told”? By whom, I wonder?
I don’t think that ONS have ever said that, for exactly the reasons that you state, Andy.
July 31, 2021
ONS says that 5.5 EU citizens have applied for settled status. How do you get settled status? By proving that you have been living in the UK continuously for five years. Otherwise, for example if you have broken periods of residence, you can apply for and get pre-settled status. 4.9 million total applications have been approved.
EU citizens are going to an awful lot of trouble to qualify to live in a country they don’t want to live in, and spending an awful lot of time living in the country they don’t want to live in, in order to qualify to live there.
August 1, 2021
Could you post the definition of “continuously”?
Thanks.
August 1, 2021
I’ll do it for you:
“All applicants must have started living in the UK by 31 December 2020. ‘Settled status’ requires five years of continuous residence; this is defined as living in the UK, the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man for five consecutive years, and for at least six months in any 12-month period during those years. Longer absences are permitted for specified reasons, such as one period of up to 12 months for childbirth, illness, study, training or a work posting.”
So, it facilitates exactly the same arrangements as many British who have homes in Spain enjoy, precisely as Andy stated.
August 1, 2021
You get awarded “pre-settled status” by applying for “settled status”.
August 1, 2021
This is what the Government’s site says:
Who is eligible for the EU Settlement Scheme:
You must meet one of the eligibility criteria for the scheme, which for most people is either:
you’re from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and you started living in the UK by 31 December 2020
you’re the family member of someone from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein who started living in the UK by 31 December 2020
You may also be eligible if:
you used to have a family member from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein who started living in the UK by 31 December 2020 (but you’ve separated, they’ve died or the family relationship has broken down)
you’re the family member of a British citizen who you lived with in the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein – you must have lived with them in that country by 31 December 2020 and returned to the UK with them before you apply
you’re the family member of a British citizen who also is a citizen of an EU country, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein, and they lived in the UK as a citizen of one of these countries before getting British citizenship
you have a family member who is an eligible person of Northern Ireland
you’re the child of someone from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein who used to live and work in the UK – you must be in education in the UK
you’re the family member of a person who is exempt from immigration control
you’re the family member of a ‘frontier worker’
You and your child can also apply if you’re the primary carer of a:
British citizen
child of someone from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein who used to live and work in the UK – the child must be in education in the UK
self-sufficient child from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein
==
Doesn’t seem to repeat your claim.
July 31, 2021
So the genius argument today is that all those clever European applied for settled status because they don’t want to live here. On the other hand they want the right to “come and go” as the set up their “young families” in a country they don’t want to live in.
What argument are you going to come up with when they are paying NI contributions and taxes in this country they don’t want to live in, but want to have the right to live if they do want, which of course they don’t.
You and MiC really ought to get a grown-up to check you logic before you post.
July 31, 2021
Not so long ago you said the same things but told us the figure for EU people here in the UK was way less than the then estimate of approx 3million.
Now there is at least 5.5 million here you just repeat your argument.
July 31, 2021
A bit OT but related to population numbers, I see that it is reported today that the Government drafted secret plans in 2017 and 2018 on how to prepare for a pandemic, suggesting sacrificing some people based on their ‘probability of survival’, leading to Care home residents and those over 70 being denied hospital care. Also under the plans, the Health Secretary could allow doctors to prioritise some patients over others who were placed on an ‘end of life pathway’ in the event of a ‘severe’ flu pandemic.
So when the NHS shoved so many elderly people out of hospitals and into care homes, the plan was being followed and lead directly to the death – allegedly of Covid – of 12,000+ people. So the killer programme to get rid of the elderly just to protect the NHS was clearly effective.
Does anyone actually know why there are more administrators and managers in the NHS than there are doctors?
July 31, 2021
Yes, the Tories made it that way in some crazy idea of having an internal market that would pit hospitals and doctors against each other and so reduce costs. As is usual with politicians the result is the exact opposite, tons of people on big money trying to save tuppence.
July 31, 2021
Martyn
“……..More administrators and managers……”
Probably for the same reasons we have more Admirals in the Navy than we have Fighting Ships.
July 31, 2021
I am always amused by the offering from the ONS, especially once the MsM picks up on something for a headline. Yet the ONS states on their T&C to paraphrase the figures given are based on a rough idea, just predictions at the time and will be corrected at a latter date when the full and actual figures become available. The MsM never corrects themselves later.
Then again as with predictions, do we all just adjust – just in case. Then in doing so does the prediction not happen.
Given the ONS caveat it is surely wrong that Government pays to much heed to their views of the future.
In real business if your predictions or forecasts for the business were more than 10%(in reality closer to 5%) out either way you would no longer be employed. Yet the ONS gets to keep theirs.
July 31, 2021
And we now read some Covid modellers were predicting a ‘million’ cases as the infection rate continued to fall.
Can we stop the ‘Goebelesque Big Lie ‘ approach that we are following the science as if it is a 2 +2 = 4 situation. It is all guesswork and the ‘following the science’ spin is a cowardly cop out.
July 31, 2021
Nig 1
“‘following the science’ spin is a cowardly cop out.”
Well what do you expect ? after all the country has been siezed by cowards, and liars to boot.
July 31, 2021
There is a very serious issue with ONS statistics, and that is, at some point they changed from using hard numbers from state bodies, to using survey data.
For example, the “average income” comes from a survey, not from HMRC records. This has got to be changed back.
Another point is, we can’t find historical data. Try Googling what the tax rates and thresholds were back in the 1960’s or 1970’s. Can’t be found. There IS a rather amateur website which has some National Insurance historical rates but it is incomplete and only goes back to the late 1970’s.
A few years back I managed to find out that there were more people in FULL-TIME jobs in the dark days of 1974 than there were in the “boom” year 2006. Try and find that statistic now, it’s been censored from history.
We sorely need a “Shadowstats” organisation here in the UK.
August 1, 2021
Rates of Income Tax 1973-74 to 1989-90
worldofstuart.excellentcontent.com/repository/incometaxrates_1974to1990.pdf
July 31, 2021
I have pointed out before that the government’s GDP and other economic forecasts have NEVER, ever, ever been right. So, as I asked before, why even make these forecasts? Given that the Chancellor relies on these to determine his budget, he is effectively basing his economic policies on data that he KNOWS to be wrong. I believe this to be mentally retarded. A much better policy would be to decide economic policy on the basis of political ideology and financial expertise. Then to review the subsequent – more accurate – real-world data, and, if necessary, tweak the policies as required.
Unfortunately the government is much too stupid and cowardly to do this. They are in thrall to people who are no more ‘experts’ than my cat is. Just look at Covid. It is revealed today that the so-called SAGE ‘experts’ they listen to predicted that reducing restrictions could see infections rise to over a MILLION. Instead, as we know, they have fallen by 40%, to less than 30,000. There are only three possible conclusions: (i) the advisers are politically motivated and deliberately LIE to push their agenda; (ii) the advisers are complete CRETINS. In either case, why doesn’t the government sack them and replace them with more professional advisers? The third possibility is that it is truly impossible to make accurate forecasts, in which case the govenment should sack them and NOT replace them.
In all cases, the answer lies in SACKING these advisers. This is so obvious that the fact the government does not do so means that I cannot trust or have any faith in either the competence or the honesty of the government. One has to also ask why backbench MPs are asleep at the wheel and doing nothing. Where is the EDM saying that MPs have no confidence in the morons currently being employed and demanding their dismissal?
July 31, 2021
Oh what a tangled web we weave when we first practice to deceive.
Where are the checks and balances to ensure the numbers have not been officially managed or manipulated? for the uni-parties benefit?
Most regard official numbers as being more propaganda than representative.
The tax bills for the unsubsidised little people are pretty real though.
If you want to check what inflation is really like , check your tax bills and MP’s pay increases over the last 3 years.
July 31, 2021
The funniest figures of the lot must be:
‘Immigration down to the tens of thousands’.
You have to laugh.
July 31, 2021
+1
July 31, 2021
Quora
None of the UK official stats around Covid have been reliable, even before people started changing the definitions, and comparisons between countries. Forget it. Lets not even talk about China’s numbers. Normally these numbers are not critical , but the whole of public policy , large scale government borrowing , and people’s lives have been driven by “flaky data”
The only number I can rely on is the ONS excess mortality in England. This has been lower ( i.e. less deaths than normal) for 6 months!
This needs fixing ( can’t understand why its not been fixed at some time in the last 18 months. The latest NHS numbers in hospital “restatement” is just the latest fudge , of many.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9
July 31, 2021
and there’s our host making out he’s on our side, and publishing works such as; ‘we don’t believe you’ while also refusing to uphold our right to be angry with traitor governments.
Thing is, JR, the more you gag us the more we won’t believe you either.
Reply You can be critical and angry. My moderation is to keep this site open for opposing views. Links other than official sources, long postings, swear words and personalised abuse or allegations are not welcome. Its your call whether that makes the site worth commenting on or not.
July 31, 2021
Reply to reply
“Links other than official sources, long postings, swear words and personalised abuse or allegations are not welcome. ”
…..none of which were present.
August 1, 2021
Steve
I posted some links, seperate from my post above and on topic, one of which was from the Bank of England about inflation. It got deleted !
I mean, what can you do ?
Reply I tried to open the other link to check it but it didn’t open.
July 31, 2021
Highly paid forecasters who consistently get their forecasters wrong are a complete waste of space. Sack the lot. That’s one contribution to reducing public expenditure. There are a lot more. I’ll e-mail you a note on the subject, copied to my MP Ranil Jayawardena.
July 31, 2021
Read that the govt are block booking yet more hotels – wonder why that would happen? Soon be no hotels left in the UK to holiday at.
July 31, 2021
People would agree to be counted except government wants to know too much about us especially at census time so then many opt out. There are probably millions like myself who are otherwise a functioning part of society but just don’t like answering all of those damn questions – so we stay away at census time – go on hols
July 31, 2021
Off-topic, but I must share with you this amusing and revealing insight into the cretinous way Boris is trying to implement his green policies:
From september a new fuel will be appearing on the forecourts: E10. It is called E10 because it contains 10% ethanol, which is supposed to make it more environmentally friendly, as it produces very slightly less CO2 than 100% petrol. All well and good, but … an analysis a few years back comparing E10 with normal petrol showed that using this fuel leads to a lower mpg. The reduction in mpg varies from car to car, but on average is 8.4%. So you need to use MORE fuel, and that this means that, even when you take into account the reduction in E10’s CO2 output, you end up producing MORE CO2! Yes, that’s right – this is MORE polluting! And of course, it costs us all more, because we have to buy more of it. But the farce doesn’t end there, because where do you think the ethanol comes from in the first place? Mostly from sugarcane. The environmental morons say that the crops absorb CO2 when they are grown, but of course this is released when they are burnt. And besides, where is most of this sugarcane grown? In Brazil, on land that was previously Amazonian rain forest!
So thanks to Boris the lunatic, we will be spending more money, to drive less efficient cars, producing more CO2, and cutting down rain forest to do so. All in the name of protecting the planet! And still the Tory backbenchers refuse to rebel against this madness!
July 31, 2021
Is this following EU policy? I expect so.
July 31, 2021
X-Tory
I’ve been wondering for quite a while exactly what will persuade our useless MP’s to stand up for the electorate but I now despair
July 31, 2021
X-Tory
I’ve been wondering for quite a while exactly what will persuade our useless MP’s to stand up for the electorate but I now despair
But, apparently I’ve already said this, so another form of censorship being employed
July 31, 2021
x-tory
“From september a new fuel will be appearing on the forecourts: E10 ”
It’s here now. In fact one retailer advertises unleaded at 131.9, but that’s only if you lift the E10 nozzle, E5 they charge 138.9. False advertising, clearly.
“an analysis a few years back comparing E10 with normal petrol showed that using this fuel leads to a lower mpg.”
That’s the idea.
” And still the Tory backbenchers refuse to rebel against this madness! ”
Why would they? as far as they’re concerned the country can go to hell. Their salary, pensions, perks & lovely villa in the EU are far more important.
July 31, 2021
Nonsense -I’ve been using E10 – a few tankfuls c/o tesco.
I doubt I can see 1% difference from E5 in the average 43 mg I get in my journeys,onboard computer calculated and average mpg constantly updated over trips.
What sort of an old unmaintained banger are you basing that on?
July 31, 2021
You really should have read my post a tad more carefully before rushing to respond so aggressively and disparagingly. Firstly, I clearly stated that the figure of 8.4% was an *average*, which obviously means that some cars do better and others worse. And, also, I clearly explained that I was comparing E10 with *normal* 100% petrol, while you are comparing E10 with E5. Your argument, therefore, like you, falls flat on its face.
August 1, 2021
What do you call *normal* 100% petrol, 95-, 97- or 98RON? RON (Research Octane Number). If you do not define what your reference is, your comment is close to worthless and you fall flat on your face.
July 31, 2021
So you’re happy with getting 10 % less than you pay for ?
July 31, 2021
It is being publicised that the fuel is not suitable for older cars. But it is probably not good news for newer ones either in terms of the longevity of fuel pumps, which are often located inside your car’s fuel tank and are expensive to replace. It’s part of forcing you to acquire a different car in the future by making the fuel shorten its life.
Your point is entirely correct. It’s eco-madness.
July 31, 2021
Exactly!!
July 31, 2021
Communication and correct data entering is a huge factor here as I was reminded when trying to get a covid pass . The NHS app said ‘No Covid’ yet I was one of the first to have two jabs as surplus , but still well documented and entered in the correct place from my end. !
July 31, 2021
X-Tory : “All well and good, but … an analysis a few years back comparing E10 with normal petrol showed that using this fuel leads to a lower mpg.”
One of the many ways to force consumers to change from petrol/diesel to electric is to fiddle with the fuel to reduce its energy density and add components (ethanol) to damage the fuel system.
July 31, 2021
O R
Indeed media reports from all sorts of motoring organisations suggest any petrol vehicle produced before 2011 may have problems with the new mix E10 so they may need to purchase the highest octane fuel, which was/is significantly more expensive than the old standard Octane mix.
It is suggested that anything manufactured after 2011 should be ok with E10.
August 1, 2021
Oh yeah, E10 is commonly used in the USA, Australia and continental Europe.
My 2002 Zafira does not show any problem whether I use E5 in Britain or E10 on the continent. Another storm in a tea cup (aka another reason for whinging)?
August 1, 2021
I checked the Government website and it states that all Vauxhalls with petrol engines are cleared for E10 use, except models with 2.2 litre direct injection engines supplied to Vectra, Signum and Zafira. There is a code number supplied. I doubt whether the odd tank or two will do much harm with other non-specified vehicles, but over the long term seals etc are likely to break down as I understand it.
August 1, 2021
Well, you might be right, but my 1.8 l car has been with me for 19 years, with 17 years of E10 petrol for a couple of weeks per year, and, crossed fingers, I’ve not had any seal problems.
July 31, 2021
The unsurprising outcome of this pandemic debacle is that people have lost trust in the Government and any of its so called statistics. Finding out the truth takes a lot of time and effort which not everyone can devote the time to but it is mostly there on the internet.
Just want to flag up Jennifer Arcuri interview on GB News. She makes the point about loss of trust and also hints at some potentially explosive facts, one of which is that the Prime Minister held a meeting with the Bank of England ten days before lockdown. Now wouldn’t we all like to know what was said then? No point in us mere plebs asking because we are lied to at every turn and kept in the dark like mushrooms. One day the truth will out but I doubt I will live long enough to hear it.
July 31, 2021
“We now learn some people said to be in hospital with COVID caught it in hospital.”
As reported by various “conspiracy” sites some time ago……..
Some? even the MSM (Daily Telegraph) was putting this at approaching 40%….
July 31, 2021
O/T: assuming a total population of 100 people, and a 90% efficient vaccine:
If only 50% people are vaccinated, 55 cases of the disease may happen, the 50 non vaccinated and 5 (= 10% of 50) vaccinated. The percentage of people vaccinated among all those with the disease is 5/(50+5) ie 9.1%.
Now 90% people have been vaccinated, and 10% refuse to be vaccinated. There are 19 cases with the disease, the 10 non vaccinated and 9 (=10% of 90) vaccinated.
And the DE, the DM, the Sun and the Torygraph have their covers with 47.4% of vaccinated with the disease. Indeed 9/(10+9) = 47.4%.
QED: the more people vaccinated, the higher the percentage of vaccinated people among the cases. But in the first case 55 people have the disease, in the second 19.
It would be great if all people could understand this simple arithmetic, but funnily enough I do not think this will be the case.
July 31, 2021
You are correct. I produced a number of charts on covid and vaccine data from the dashboard recently which Sir John kindly allowed to be posted here. One showed the incidence of cases by age cohort and compared it with the effective level of non-vaccination, counting unvaccinated and 20% of those with a first dose plus 4% of those with a double dose. It showed a strong link in adults between case incidence (high in younger age groups) and not being vaccinated. Other charts covered the trend to much lower case hospitalisation rates as vaccine takeup increased, and various analyses by age cohort that all help to demonstrate that the vaccines have been very effective in reducing risk of hospitalisation and death, as well as of infection in the first place.
July 31, 2021
Most of the charts are near the bottom of the comments on this article:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/07/20/what-precautions-should-people-take-for-covid/
July 31, 2021
I was amused this morning to see that the poor insignificant little UK, which is totally without any importance, and cannot survive on its own, in the World now that we have left the EU, has twice the number of Olympic medals and more than twice the number of Golds as France and Germany combined.
If that is being a complete laughing stock, I’ll take it.
August 1, 2021
As of 01/08/2021 09:54
…….. G ……. S………B……
UK….9…….10……..12….. 31
.F…….4…….10………6……20
.G…….3………4…….11…….18.
F+G…7……..14…….17……38
QNED.
July 31, 2021
Let me tell you some funny figures
Due to lockdowns etc I’ve driven 500 miles this past year but paid £250 road tax
While my neighbour has done about 5,000 miles but only paid £30 road tax
This government is mad
August 1, 2021
Another meaningless post as you do not give details of what cars were used. How comes that on this blog a number of contributions are so poor they cannot stand as a proper argument. Was the education system so bad 40 years ago these people did not learn the basic of putting 2+2=4?
And it is people like that who pretend to tell younger generations how to behave. What a (depressing) laugh.
August 1, 2021
I think you’re on the wrong forum….try facebook or twitter
And for everyone else the point I was making is that this government users subsidy/bans as a way of social engineering but doesn’t analyse the resultant figures, and when questioned will select ‘funny figures’ to justify their actions
August 1, 2021
So what was your point exactly about road tax and annual mileage? As written it was not making any sense, as there is no link whatsoever between road tax and mileage. It should not be that difficult to elucidate. Please go on, explain your connections between road tax, mileage, gov’t subsidies/bans, social engineering, and your resultant figures.
August 1, 2021
99% of the exchanges on this forum I enjoy, they make me reflect, learn and develop new ideas….your 1% contribution is weak, unnecessary and moribund
July 31, 2021
Just to correct a word game that Andy and MiC have been playing. Here are the qualifications to obtain settle status – 4.9 applications successful so far. Pre-settled status for broken periods of residence. From gov.uk.
“Five years’ continuous residence means that for 5 years in a row you’ve been in the UK, the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man for at least 6 months in any 12-month period.
You’ll need to show that you – or your family member from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein – were living in the UK by 31 December 2020.”
Settled status is not something you can just pick up casually. Proving you lived in the UK for five years continuously is not the sort of thing you can show if you are some come-and-go tourist or migrant worker. It requires being *settled* in the country, as indeed it was intended to. It does not just mean that the UK “settled” your case. It means that you are settled in the UK.
August 1, 2021
Indeed, it usually means providing the proof (by uploading the relevant statements) that one had at least five years of council taxes, of bank statements showing regular credits and debits from UK employers/companies, of NHS registration, … For what I was told, it was not a very simple task, but one requiring a smart phone/tablet/computer and being able to get passcodes from the Home Office to start with, then being able to go on with filling the various questions, providing the statements, providing a digital photo, … certainly not a 20 minutes task as had been said in various media reports, more a couple of hours over several days.
So it is not particularly surprising that specially older EU citizens who had sometimes lived in the UK for tens of years but are not particularly familiar with the internet could have had difficulties to go through the HO’s hoops.
August 1, 2021
Furthermore you can still get “pre settled status” even if you only arrived just before the cut-off date last year, but would have to wait a further four years, being here for at least half of each year, for an upgrade to that status.
August 1, 2021
The “continuous residence” requirement allows you to be absent for up to half of each of the five years, and for longer, for specified reasons.
So these citizens could very easily be living very much as many British people in Spain do, or as younger British people working around Europe did hitherto.
The figures absolutely do NOT prove that there are 5.5 million European Union people here at any one time.
July 31, 2021
By the way, MiC seems to be relying on an article, maybe from the Guardian, which does not say what he thinks. All it really says is that the number of EU citizens estimated from the Annual Population Survey (APS) is lower than the number calculated from settled status applications. It does not say which is correct, and in fact it reveals that there are plenty of categories – such as hostels, communal living, and so on – which the APS survey misses.
And if you think of it, the APS will always be on the low side. It’s easy to miss counting people, especially in a informal non-census “survey” but it’s hard to count people who are not there.
So MiC is insisting on something that is actually merely uncertain. And he is counting as absent from the country people who just were not counted, and that is after telling us that plenty of people enter the UK and “melt into the crowd”
August 1, 2021
Well, make up what passes for your mind.
Either there are perhaps millions of clandestine migrants here – as some regulars often claim – or the numbers are the mere thousands of those who have arrived in dinghies etc. over the last five years or so.
Which is it?
If it is the first, then how did those people get here?
August 1, 2021
Well if they come to the UK as students they simply just overstay.
If they come here from the Europe, whilst we were members of the EU, they just walk in and live here.
Others come as tourists for a holiday then dont return home.
A few are snuggled in by criminals in the back of lorries and in dingies.
Surely you know these things MiC?
August 1, 2021
The UK was not in Schengen, so no one just “walked in” from the European Union or from anywhere else. EVERYONE needed a passport.
As for the rest, yes, that is exactly my point and as I described earlier.
So the overall number has little to do with your silly accusations against France and the RNLI for not preventing the relative few in dinghies, does it?
It is the signal failure of UK governance regarding residence registration and border management, isn’t it?
August 1, 2021
So they had an EU nation passport.
Next….
PS
I’ve not made any silly accusations against the RNLI or France
Stop making stuff up MiC
August 1, 2021
How ever is a person with a European Union passport an “illegal”?
August 1, 2021
You asked how all these people come to the UK
I gave you a list.
Those coming form the EU with ID or a passport were able to come here because we were members of the EU
Easy to get an EU passport once inside the EU
Surely you know all this?
August 2, 2021
Germany has only granted citizenship to around one-in-forty of the million or so refugee claimants which it very generously accepted, and the other main recipients are similar I gather.
Many have been deported, others granted temporary rights etc.
Where is your evidence that a passport for such a country is “easy to get”?
August 1, 2021
P2, as pointed out by MiC if you were a European citizen coming by air, rail or eurotunnel, you had to have a passport or identity card to be checked either in the departing and arriving airports, in Paris Gare du Nord or Bruxelles Midi, or in Calais/Coquelles by the UK authorities. So it was not just ‘walk in’.
If they or other tourists overstay, it is as much a deficiency of the UK system as anything else, as the UK border controls do not check who leaves. So can’t you recognise that there are responsibilities also on the UK side.
Only those coming by dinghies or in the back of lorries do not show papers when entering the UK, and they are at most 10,000/year. Enough to excite Mr Farage (and his supporters) but actually a relatively small part of a problem that has been for years badly handled by the HO/Border Force.
O/T: I see that since 30/07 France has been accepting double vaccinated UK people without further ado in and out of the metropolitan country. In contrast the UK still insists on a PCR Fit to Fly within two days of departure and on return (not very clear from gov.uk website) a Lateral Flow Test (or is it a French PCR) before starting travelling to the UK, then once back in the UK a PCR at days 2 and 8 (except if one takes a PCR Test to Release at day 5), with all these UK tests being booked before even starting on the journey from the UK. Minimum expense, £240 per person. And guess what, a number of the companies providing these multiple PCRs have links with a particular party (e.g., Randox and a famous politician).
Or as the French were saying already in 1972 ‘les copains et les coquins’.
August 1, 2021
It isn’t difficult to enter the EU
Once inside you move to getting ID or a passport
Walk in was just a shorthand
Otherwise you end up with endless posts like yours heffy.
MiC asked how they came into the UK
I gave him some ways they did this.
I never said the government or the border force were doing a good job.
But thanks for your interest.
August 1, 2021
I tried to compete with Mic for the most posts today – but gave up since I have another life.
August 1, 2021
Look, it’s Olympics season.
Try competing with LifeLogic.
August 1, 2021
touché.
And the Gold is shared between LL and MiC.
August 1, 2021
The gold is not shared.
It has to be awarded to MiC
37 posts on this thread versus just 4 for Lifelogic.