A tax rise is a very bad idea

The Chancellor behaves as if he believes the Office of Budget Responsibility forecasts. That way disaster lies. In November they forecast Ā aĀ£394bn deficit for the year to March 2021. By March this year they had found an extra Ā Ā£40 bn and said the deficit would be Ā£354bn. The outturn for that year announced shortly after the Ā last forecast was Ā£304 bn. So all their advice to put in Ā tax rises to raise say Ā£10 bn was swamped by a Ā£90 bn improvement thanks to growth and their poor model.

This year they forecast Ā£234bn. In the year so far the deficit is Ā£26 bn Ā less than their forecast, again a multiple of the amount in extra Ā tax revenue they tell the Chancellor to raise.

On this Ā bogus pessimistic prospectus it would Ā be most unwise to put up tax rates . The way Ā to speed a welcome reduction in the deficit is to speed growth by lower tax rates.That is the best way to more revenue Ā and more jobs. A tax on jobs when you want to promote more and better paid employment is particularly stupid.

195 Comments

  1. Lifelogic
    September 6, 2021

    Exactly tax increases from the current hugely over taxed position will raise less tax not more. We really need to look at the vast level of government waste and the very poor, inefficient and hugely misdirected public services that deliver so little of value. Cull HS2, net zero and have a bonfire of red tape for a start. Then simplify the tax system. Complexity is a tax in itself through large compliance costs and a distraction from more productive activity. It lowers productivity and raises no net tax. If benefits no one but essentially parasitic accountants, lawyers, bureaucrats and the likes as does all the OTT red tape everywhere. Kill all the idiotic diversity agenda and other such woke lunacy too.

    Let us hope for Canada’s sake the appalling Justin Trudeau is kicked out in two weeks time.

    1. Iain Gill
      September 6, 2021

      cut the diversity officers throughout the public sector

      stop importing cheaper labour which displaces brits from the workforce and ripple out to push more people onto benefits

      stop subsidising the rest of the world including scotland

      1. No Longer Anonymous
        September 6, 2021

        Ian Gill

        My wife and I enjoyed a weekend away being served in restaurants and pubs by British people and excellent service it was too. The prices were a bit higher but it doesn’t matter. And in my area and others I visit British people have been serving in Indian and Chinese restaurants and never a complaint about service there either.

        Lorry drivers saw their jobs handled by agencies and their pay and conditions plummet when cheaper labour was imported.

        Try telling a gold plated civil servant to start work on Monday, not knowing when they’ll get home that week, sleeping on a mattress under their desk, eating cold Ginsters pasties and washing with wet wipes and all for a pittance and no pension. See how long they’d put up with it.

        The better paid jobs galore has to be met with much stricter restrictions on welfare.

    2. Leslie Singleton
      September 6, 2021

      Dear Lifelogic–I have never believed much in Economics and it seems to me that if we have a specific need right now as we very much do we need a specific tax right now to fund it. When the Government in 1799 needed to pay for the Napoleonic Wars are we saying that rather than raise an Income Tax they should have just lowered taxes? Dream on.

      1. matthu
        September 6, 2021

        What sort of currency were we using in 1799? How was it different to the currency we are using today?

      2. Lifelogic
        September 7, 2021

        Government expenditure now is approaching 50% of GDP in 1799 it was probably under 10%. The government is wasting money almost everywhere you care to look. Ā£trillion+ on the net zero lunacy, Ā£100 billions on HS2, billions on diversity officer paid nearly three times that of a junior doctor, Ā£millions spend on illegal immigration or given to the French (who seem to use the money to encourage more of it – why wouldn’t they?). The NHS is absurdly inefficient and fails millions despite spending Ā£billions on it. Most UK university degrees are worth almost nothing soft loans for these worthless ones (about 75 of them) should be scrapped.

    3. Mark
      September 6, 2021

      Unfortunately the likely replacement of Merkel by Schokz looks like more of the same, only worse, for Germany and her EU neighbours.

    4. Hugh Clark
      September 6, 2021

      Hear, hear!

    5. Paul Cuthbertson
      September 6, 2021

      Spot on
      Why do we need politicians and there are 650 of them!!!! Most do nothing.
      Ask yourself, what has your MP done for you????
      The man in the street has more idea how to run the country than these paid lap dogs.
      If the Canadian people “vote” Trudeau back into office then they have learnt nothing and there is no hope.

    6. Peter
      September 6, 2021

      Sir John Redwood appears in the media on a Talk Radio video on tax rises. As a loyal Conservative, he states that we should wait and see what is actually proposed before jumping to conclusions. Fair enough. This gives ministers time to change their minds if rises are indeed planned.

      However, he then turns his ire on the forecasters. I think this attempt at deflecting attention is over-egging the case. Nobody really places that much trust in forecasts.

      1. rose
        September 7, 2021

        These particular forecasters he is right to castigate, because they determine policy. In this case they could cost the country its recovery.

      2. Micky Taking
        September 7, 2021

        definition of a forecast ‘something stated with sincerity that will happen, but pretty soon is more often than not wrong’ AND it seems the more senior authoritive the forecaster the more seriously inaccurate.

    7. Innocentbystander
      September 6, 2021

      +100 LL

    8. DavidJ
      September 6, 2021

      +1

    9. MiC
      September 7, 2021

      We shouldn’t need any sort of tax rise.

      Haven’t we got Ā£350 million extra a week burning a hole in our pocket?

      No?

      Why ever not?

      1. Micky Taking
        September 7, 2021

        The NHS in all its forms absorbs that and more every year, while the service seems to be inferior and the customers more poorly treated every year.

      2. Peter2
        September 7, 2021

        Have you missed the effect of the pandemic on UK businesses and tax revenues?

  2. J Bush
    September 6, 2021

    If however you wanted to bankrupt the country and its economy by creating a tax regime that will achieve this, then Sunak is doing all the right things and OBR statistics can just be viewed for what they are, ‘window dressing’. Or in politic speak smokes and mirrors, like everything else this government does.

    1. MiC
      September 6, 2021

      Well, just as battle plans often don’t survive first contact with the enemy, so economic forecasts are rendered wrong by a chaotic world’s departure from the context in which they were set.

      So long as that likelihood is borne in mind then they may often be of some use, however.

      Pack your sun hat, but don’t forget your umbrella.

      I think that John should bear in mind that it is far from just pay and deductions which influence spending behaviour. The security-precarity sense is central, and there’s much that could be done here – if only there were a will in his party.

    2. Bryan Harris
      September 6, 2021

      @J Bush +1

      How far can the OBR be trusted – isn’t it just another remainer organisation down-playing our potential?

      1. DavidJ
        September 6, 2021

        +1

    3. Micky Taking
      September 6, 2021

      Covid meant the Government was told the roof of the economy was in tatters and leaky. So we smiled at the people in the house saying we’ll take care of it, we have borrowed several tarps (tarpaulins) and most people thought oh goody no problem then.
      Sadly no repairs have been done and ‘the sun hasn’t shone’ now the tarps must be handed back, and winter is likely to come. A bill will need paying and roofs don’t come cheap.

  3. Peter Wood
    September 6, 2021

    Good Morning,

    Quite right, tax rises now should be seen as a form of insanity. Enter Bunter Boris; who probably couldn’t pass maths O level. I earnestly hope that the 1922, and all backbenchers, will make it clear to Bunter that tax rises will be voted down. He must be backed into a corner and told if he wants to fund care for the elderly then he should cancel HS2. That would give us plenty of cash for care and the NHS.

    Bunter needs to be dragged into reality, like or not.

    1. Nig l
      September 6, 2021

      Indeed. Not to mention 168 billions worth of MOD contracts behind schedule. Civil servants continuing to be paid London allowance when working from home. 8000 communication officers employed by the government.

      And so it goes on..

    2. DavidJ
      September 6, 2021

      Indeed.

  4. turboterrier
    September 6, 2021

    Surely until the true impact on furlough and companies start to stabilise tax increases will be detrimental to the long hard slog ahead to get people back into real jobs which will generate real growth across the board.
    The treasury has to tackle the elephant in the room, government waste. It has to be addressed as painful for some that may be, especially when vanity projects are cut back or abandoned.

    1. Iain Moore
      September 6, 2021

      The trouble I fear is that what we consider waste the Government considers core spending.

      1. SM
        September 6, 2021

        +10

      2. Mitchel
        September 6, 2021

        The Soviets had free issue of materials for their production-driven economy;we and the USA have free issue of fiat for our consumer-driven economies.When you don’t have “proper” money,everything seems possible,waste adds to GDP,money printed as debt is never repaid,etc.Until suddenly it isn’t.

        There’s a good article in Foreign Policy :”Future of Money,part one:Emerging challenges to US dollar supremacy.”

        “Driven by perceived US sanctions overreach,numerous countries now seek to circumvent the dollar dominated financial system.Emerging technologies are paving the way.”

        China and Russia are changing world trade patterns and routes.Control of trade routes has throughout history been a prime determinant of what constitutes money.

        I think our host may believe we might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb in terms of debauching our currency,for hung we shall surely be at some stage.

  5. DOM
    September 6, 2021

    Compared to your party’s embrace of Labour’s own brand of Marxism, barbarism and leftist authoritarianism, this area of politics is simply irrelevant.

    I care not one jot for the politics of the economy as this, as your party well knows, diverts the public’s attention away from your party’s dreadful capitulation to the forces of regressive leftism and their agenda to destroy all civil life, moral action and human independence from State invasion into our lives

    The ‘go with the narrative’ Tories are destroying this nation’s heritage, culture and freedoms to protect itself from the fascist left and their vile extremist agenda

    1. J Bush
      September 6, 2021

      But is it capitulation? Johnson could have easily chosen a cabinet and advisers from real conservatives. He didn’t. The one he selected is filled to the rafters with various lefties from eco-loons, spend and wasters, dictatorial control freaks and even communists, along with the usual run of liars and ignominious.

      1. glen cullen
        September 6, 2021

        You forgot to include the ā€˜snakeā€™

      2. Timaction
        September 6, 2021

        Indeed. He chose them all as did May with her pretence at leaving the EU. Just deliver the wishes of the electorate not hid and seek with the truth from the electorate. We don’t believe YOU!

        1. John Hatfield
          September 6, 2021

          Correct. We need to dump the dodgy trade deal and go WTO. Which is what we were heading for before Johnson intervened.

      3. Hugh Clark
        September 6, 2021

        Succinctly put. I couldn’t agree more.

      4. JoolsB
        September 6, 2021

        J Bush – thereā€™s not enough real Conservatives in the current Government to form a cabinet. John is a dying breed.

  6. Lifelogic
    September 6, 2021

    We have of course already had vast tax increases from Sunak a 90% reduction the entrepreneurs CGT relief (this even before Covid), a Ā£15,000 increase in stamp duty just now and a 25% in Corp Tax, freezing of allowances, back door pension pot raids already announced. All hugely damaging to the economy and wealth creation. Just stop pissing money down the drain Sunak millions of ways money can be saved in the state sector and service levels improved at the same time but no political will for this it seems.

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      September 6, 2021

      Stamp duty didn’t go up, it went back to what it was. The sticking plaster to keep the housing market rising worked and just meant that the stamp duty went onto the price of the property.

      Taxing people to buy a house is as insidious as any tax but in its absence prices accelerated when they shouldn’t have.

      1. hefner
        September 6, 2021

        Same for the Entrepreneurs Relief. It went back to what it was when Gordon Brown introduced it in April 2008. Between April 2010 and April 2011, it went from Ā£1m to Ā£10m. As of March 2020, it went back to Ā£1m. For nine years, a bonanza for any rich BTL owner who could buy properties (as a business) and sell such properties after two years and pocket the difference between original purchase and subsequent sale price (very likely) without paying tax on the capital gain.

        As for your ā€˜damaging wealth creationā€™, why are you not more honest and write ā€˜damaging LLā€™s wealthā€™.

        So multi-property BTL owners had it very good for nine years, during which most salaried people only saw their incomes on average go from Ā£25,882 to 31,461 (statista.com: roughly a 2% annual increase).

        1. Lifelogic
          September 7, 2021

          Fear not my wealth is doing just fine. Oh and stamp duty did indeed go up by up to Ā£15K and mortgage applications have dropped hugely as a result. The fact that it went down a while back does not negate this. It is still a vary damaging increase.

          I am pointing out the damage these policies do to the economy and indeed to tenants as they restrict choice of properties to let, push up prices and deter sensible investments (in property, jobs and industry in general). This while creating more & more essentially parasitic jobs in over regulation, law, tax planning, accounting and in the state sector. Damaging productivity hugely, reducing the UKs ability to compete and exporting jobs and industries. Especially with net zero on top of this.

          Property letting is only a small part of my business anyway.

          1. MiC
            September 8, 2021

            If a rentier were not doing well under these Tories then there really would be no hope for you.

            That is exactly the point.

        2. dixie
          September 7, 2021

          Shock, horror, do you mean to say developers and landlords have been receiving extensive goodies subsidised by the taxpayer for a decade!
          Puts all the bleating over EVs in sharp relief, and not one word of complaint from the usual suspects.

      2. Lifelogic
        September 7, 2021

        @Narrow Shoulders ā€œStamp duty didnā€™t go up, it went back to what it wasā€ indeed it did and to do that it went up by up to Ā£15,000 as I said.

  7. turboterrier
    September 6, 2021

    Scotland have plans for another 4000 turbines. Another huge cost to the energy bill payers. The country pay billions for the one’s we have got not to operate. No more subsidies, constraint payments or tax breaks please. Everything we do has to be costed on a stand alone basis. Market forces decide.
    Let the treasury come out with real dye in the wool conservative policies to help the country to get into overdrive.
    UK First in everything. No more pandering to the luvvies.

    1. glen cullen
      September 6, 2021

      Thousands upon thousands of wind turbine recycled free green energyā€¦and not a single domestic energy bill has ever been reduced (bills keep going up)
      Give me a british clean coal power station any day

      1. DavidJ
        September 6, 2021

        +1

    2. Timaction
      September 6, 2021

      They don’t do English first. They’re London Luvvies!

    3. Lifelogic
      September 6, 2021

      +1

  8. Richard1
    September 6, 2021

    Fully agreed. Rishi Sunak seems pretty sensible and has a better training in finance and economics than any recent chancellor – he’s the best qualified since Lawson. How come therefore he has been bamboozled into this idiocy? Is it the weight of civil service advice or have the Conservatives managed to get themselves into the foolish state of mind where they believe tax rises can be used for virtue signalling?

    Conservative MPs need to be very clear and robust and threaten to rebel. Tax rises are a sure way to stifle recovery (and lose the next election).

    1. Mr Nicholas Murphy
      September 6, 2021

      Sunak gave the never-busier supermarkets a rates holiday when he was desperate for revenue. He can’t be that bright.

      1. Mitchel
        September 6, 2021

        What does he know about the real economy;his whole career has been spent shifting figures around on a spreadsheet!

  9. Lord Ted
    September 6, 2021

    So Boris promised not to raise taxes, but is about to break his promise. Almost like he canā€™t be trusted! Who knew?

    1. J Bush
      September 6, 2021

      I and suspect others knew, the moment he started rabbiting on about ‘global Britain’ but not expanding on what he meant by this. Sound-bites are just a smoke and mirrors gimmick to hide the real (deviant) reason. Subsequently, not trustworthy.

      1. John Hatfield
        September 6, 2021

        Sound bites like the ‘oven ready deal’ still uncooked.

    2. IanT
      September 6, 2021

      We all did Ted – but in the “Trust” stakes – I certainly trusted Corbyn to try and do what he’d promised (and that was even more scary) so there was little choice but to vote for Boris.

      I think the Conservatives have to understand that Boris will have a much harder time convincing folk next time around if policy continues to be done on the fly – which seems to be the case unfortunately. The latest NI increase for social care is the latest example – there were already more detailed solutions available but this latest scheme does seemed to have been agreed over morning coffee break.

      “We need to come up with a solution for Oldie Care because I said we would – but it’s too hard – so let’s just tax jobs! Ok good, that’s fixed now let’s move on to World Poverty, Global Warming and protecting Badgers…..”

    3. glen cullen
      September 6, 2021

      The labour party posters have already be written for the next election with the headline ”you can’t trust a tory manifesto promise”

  10. Nig l
    September 6, 2021

    Totally correct. The economics have been proved to work over decades. Why is it this time they think it will be different? Not to mention a consistent failure to implement necessary reforms. Nonetheless I expect the sheep to follow.

    Boris is an economic liability and that will morph into an electoral one.

    1. SM
      September 6, 2021

      +1

  11. Dave Andrews
    September 6, 2021

    I have another idea to cut the deficit – brick up the Debt Management Office!
    Let government live within its means and ration pensions and benefits if necessary. Stop using public money to treat lifestyle diseases and end the vanity projects that wouldn’t see the light of day if they had to be funded privately.
    I’ve seen what growth means around our area; it takes the form of land being churned up for new housing, and I don’t like it.
    A tax rise means austerity for the likes of me, and I thought the message was that austerity wasn’t the answer.

    1. Everhopeful
      September 6, 2021

      Johnson et alā€™s inhumanity is truly astounding.
      An AI government maybe?

      1. glen cullen
        September 6, 2021

        I fail to see a single positive conservative action that this government has done !

        1. Micky Taking
          September 7, 2021

          a lot of head scratching, but it defeats most of us!

  12. oldtimer
    September 6, 2021

    Agreed. Tax rises are the last measure this country needs if it is to recover. With rising inflation, fiscal drag can be expected to rake in Ā£billions to further reduce the the forecast deficits.

  13. Brian Tomkinson
    September 6, 2021

    This government relise too much on computer modelling. Have they never heard the old maxim ‘garbage in, garbage out’? Or, more likely, they utilise these forecasts to enable them to introduce unpopular measures and take away our liberty and freedom. To their eternal shame most MPs are complicit. We liove under an elective dictatorship moving inexorably to authoritarian state control. The Chinese Communist Party will be looking on in admiration.

    1. Everhopeful
      September 6, 2021

      Maybe the CCP gave them lessons? As you say, 10/10 for U.K. govt. now.
      Apparently Johnson has always admired China, especially their super swift HS2 construction.

      1. Paul Cuthbertson
        September 6, 2021

        EH – plus the Chinese financing of Hinkley Point. Globalists one and all.

    2. Nota#
      September 6, 2021

      @Brian Tomkinson +1 – To much logical thinking there. The is a Government run on the principle of ‘arts and crafts’ keep throwing paint at the canvass and maybe on day there will be a picture the world like my ego will adore.

      1. hefner
        September 6, 2021

        As told by someone who has not got a clue what the ā€˜arts and craftsā€™ movement was all about.

        1. Nota#
          September 7, 2021

          @hefner – the word movement wasn’t used, that is entirely different to political thinking that comes from those that that don’t have business acumen and are just chancers.

    3. Bryan Harris
      September 6, 2021

      @BT +1

      I fear the results from these models are well manipulated to get the right answers, before being made public.

      1. Micky Taking
        September 6, 2021

        an amateur with a dodgy spreadsheet? Sounds familiar, now what was that expert’s name?

    4. Mark
      September 6, 2021

      Meanwhole China has set out its stall for COP26. No cooperation. Rest of world to accept Chinese actions over Xinkiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea. John Kerry ran into a brick wall. With Bangladesh leading the call for more money rather than “climate action” (never mind their increased area from silt deposited by the Ganges) it is clear that failure awaits. The third world at least seems to understand that aid largesse can 9nly be generated by healthy economies, not ones battered by net zero policies.

    5. glen cullen
      September 6, 2021

      But they do love their geo-politics with all the MPs today giving judgement and reason over Afghanistan and to heck with the 1.4m unemployed, the high street closing down and SMEs near bankruptcy ā€¦no no no lets talk about the millions where sending to Afghanistan and Pakistan and all the refugees weā€™ll take in

  14. Ian Wragg
    September 6, 2021

    When are you going to sort out the NI protocol.
    This is having a hugely detrimental affect on business here and in NI.
    Is this another Bunter fudge.
    It is reported that an RN vessel took boat people from a French naval vessel.
    Is this true.

  15. Everhopeful
    September 6, 2021

    After the ā€œpandemicā€ plague debacle one might have though that even the thickest would ditch the Mystic Meg stuff.
    But noā€¦on and on they plough mired in stupidity and rigid in their immutable dogma. ( Sorryā€¦orders?).

    And now Johnson thinks he is the Piped Piperā€¦and that didnā€™t end well for those who followed him, did it?

  16. Mr Nicholas Murphy
    September 6, 2021

    ‘The way to speed a welcome reduction in the deficit is to speed growth by lower tax rates.’ There’s some merit in what you say, Sir John, but that idea is for the mid-term. For now, Sunak must rein-in wasteful spending and allow the likes of me to spend my money. I looked at making three VAT-generating purchases over the weekend; in each case, the item was out-of-stock. My plan to get out more and do stuff in the autumn is likely to be affected by Zahawi’s plan for COVID-passports in the UK. (I suspect that this will be applied too harshly and in the wrong places – just after COP 26 causes a large spike in Glasgow.) And my large holiday budget remains unspent. (I won’t bore you with a further recitation of the reasons.) So, please set me free!
    P.S. I read that there is to be a re-shuffle this Thursday. A third of the Cabinet need to lose their jobs. This ‘government’ remains the worst I can remember – worse than even Brown’s – and mostly that’s down to the clown in No 10.

  17. alan jutson
    September 6, 2021

    Don’t Panic, Mr Sunak, Don’t Panic, the Office for Budget Responsibility have got it wrong again, I say it again, the Office for Budget Responsibility have got it wrong again.
    Don’t Panic Mr Sunak, Don’t Panic.
    Clueless, absolutely clueless.
    Many Companies in the Country are still affected badly by the pandemic measures in one way or another, we still have nearly two million on furlough, how can you possibly think the time is right for tax increases, when you do not have any proper figures on the real state of business or the economy.
    Complete and utter stupidity.

  18. Andy Lestocq
    September 6, 2021

    A tax on jobs ā€¦.. is particularly stupid.
    Bravo ! Judging by the headlines this would appear to be a mild comment in Parliament today .
    I trust that both mr and mrs Johnson will understand that he is in very deep doggy do dah and it will stick to his administration .

  19. Iain Moore
    September 6, 2021

    Off topic , but may be on topic if it is a matter about Boris Johnson’s trustworthiness . I understood Johnson said we would take 5k Afghans this year and 20k next year, we already see the 5k is a lie with Johnson boasting we have already taken a Peterborough’s worth, but according to David Aaronovitch on BBC R4 on Saturday this is a misunderstanding of the undertaking Johnson has given. The 5 and 20k refer to Afghans Johnson is going to fly in from Pakistan and other places, and the 20k is not a one off, but a rolling 20k year on year. These migrants will be in addition to Afghans coming in through other routes , like asylum seekers using Priti Patel’s taxi service .

    Can you confirm this, and is there any limit to the Afghan invasion Johnson is planning? I fear we will get the figures after the event, and when we are on the wrong end of over a million, we will be told tough they are already here now.

  20. Roy Grainger
    September 6, 2021

    The OBR follow the Ferguson method of making predictions. Push out something deliberately pessimistic then when youā€™re wrong everyone is so pleased they donā€™t criticise you so much for your bad prediction.

  21. Iain Gill
    September 6, 2021

    stop paying for masses of immigrants to live in housing we pay for.

    stop printing work visas for masses of (foreign Ed)nationals to take jobs here and displace Brits from the workforce.

    stop paying for diversity officers throughout the public sector.

    there is plenty of spending cuts easily attainable before raising taxes.

  22. Sakara Gold
    September 6, 2021

    “A tax rise is a very bad idea”

    Agreed. The accuracy of this simple statement is so obvious that it should not need repeating.
    The government should keep to it’s manifesto commitments NOT to raise taxes in this parliament and to maintain the “triple lock”

    If this proposal is to do with funding social care for the elderly, I think we should remember Nye Bevan’s idea for the welfare state – “from the cradle to the grave”. Cut expenditure on 4 star hotels for economic migrants and asylum seekers to pay for it. The pensioners have done their bit and have paid into the system throughout their working lives. They should be allowed to live out their remaining days in comfort and be able to leave their houses to their children. Thatcher had a vision of wealth cascading down the generations via property ownership. Have we forgotten that?

    There were rumours across the press over the weekend that Johnson may be planning a major cabinet reshuffle. Let us hope that reason prevails and that Sir John Redwood returns to government as Chancellor of the Exchequer.

    1. hefner
      September 7, 2021

      SG ā€˜The pensioners have done their bit and have paid into the system throughout their working livesā€™: yes, thatā€™s true and that gives them their weekly state pension of (potentially up to) Ā£179.60 a week.

      But that does not cover the average weekly Ā£704 fee of a residential home, even less the average weekly Ā£888 fee of a nursing home (averages across the UK, carehome.co.uk, August 2021).
      According to some studies (from Bupa, but that can certainly be discussed), the average stay in a nursing home is 801 days, 115 weeks, at a cost of Ā£102,120.

      Can we assume that every older British person presently has at least such a sum to cover this type of expense?

      Thatā€™s where the problem is.

      1. Micky Taking
        September 8, 2021

        But all those renters, including Council House rentbooks, are paying for the NOW, no contribution for the time they will expect State funded Care. Some might be of course, but in general I think it is live for today, the State pays for tomorrow (including health where they have suddenly found thats no longer true).

  23. Donna
    September 6, 2021

    There is no justification whatsoever for raising taxes whilst this Government continues to squander Ā£billions on projects with no viable business case like HS2; the “green” lunacy which will massively hit the pocket of ordinary taxpayers and do nothing whatsoever to affect the climate; and is constantly creating more Quangos staffed almost exclusively with lefties and which spend their time nagging us and siphoning off Ā£millions from the public purse.

    I find it very slightly comforting that there is still a handful of genuine conservatives in the CONservative party, but they are all kept safely on the backbenches and ignored by the Communitarians in power.

    If constantly raising taxes and expanding the size of the State led to economic growth, France would have been booming for the past few decades.

    It hasn’t.

  24. Alan Holmes
    September 6, 2021

    A really bad idea? Absolutely certain to be government policy because that’s the only sort of idea they have.

  25. Shirley M
    September 6, 2021

    Will the proposed social care give us parity with Scotland? I cannot think of any benefits received in England that are not also received in Scotland. The government should explain why the UK can afford to give Scots benefits that are unaffordable for the rest of the UK!

    1. JoolsB
      September 6, 2021

      Paid for with English taxpayersā€™ money at that. Free tuition fees, free prescriptions, free hospital parking, free dental checks, free eye tests, free personal care for the elderly all of which are denied to England on grounds of cost by successive Conservative Unionist Governments. The Ā£35 billion of English taxes they give the devolved nations every year should be spent on England first to give us the same benefits but then when did the Tories ever care about England except when they want our votes.
      This so called union is not fit for purpose as the only thing England gets out of it is the bill. and we donā€™t even have a say about that because England alone is denied a voice by anti-English Tory/Labour Governments. We need a dedicated parliament which puts Englandā€™s needs first for a change instead of last as now.

  26. Nota#
    September 6, 2021

    A tax rise is a very bad idea

    Yes a very bad idea. The PM has committed unnecessary extra burdens and costs across the whole range of the UK economy already. If tax rises were then to hit it, it could be likened to an enforcing recession on the whole of the UK while the rest of the World gallops on.

    Time and time again every tax burden on the UK economy has not increased revenue – ‘that’s lazy think’ at its most juvenile. It just causes legitimate tax avoidance.

  27. Nota#
    September 6, 2021

    It would be good if the Government got its own house in order and removed the peripheral jobs for chums in the Quang’s for a start – they are not needed they never were. To much scratch my back and I will scratch yours.
    To many un accountable commissions that have zero value to the economy. Governments and this Government in particular is a prolific spender on taxpayers money – its out of control form a Government that is out of control

  28. The PrangWizard of England
    September 6, 2021

    It is good to see strong words for clarity. The fact is this country is broke and action must be taken to fix it. We need growth and increasing taxes while continuing with restrictions of all kinds on our lives will not achieve it.

    There needs to be a wholesale change of philosophy in the Tory party as a start but we won’t get it with the present leadership.

    1. turboterrier
      September 6, 2021

      T PWof E
      Wholesale change?
      Not just the leadership but also
      at Central Office.
      Our best players are on the bench or still in the dressing room.

  29. Nota#
    September 6, 2021

    A simple illustration of the Governments blaze approach to the taxpayers money. To tackle Covid (a battle that needs to be won) the chancellor handed an additional Ā£20 billion to the NHS over and above the billions already committed . According to the media in recent days Ā£15billion has been used up of which Ā£2.7billion was consumed in staffing requirements. Seemingly OK from most perspectives, the missing bit, now un-accounted for Ā£12.3billion, no one is able to say were it went.

  30. Bryan Harris
    September 6, 2021

    We are already getting a vast array of tax increases to support Boris’ white elephant, global warming, and still this government wants to exert more power over us and reduce many to paupers.

    It was THIS government that ran away with spending Ā£Billions on false remedies for this pandemic, without due consideration for waste or any attempt at getting value for money.
    I doubt any of them will suffer financially for this, or be held truly responsible, but democracy will certainly suffer.

    Now this same government acting like kings of old, who, having brought the country to it’s knees, financially, with yet another war, fought for personal prestige, demand that the peasants dig deep once again to bail them out.

    The situations may be different, but the attitude, arrogance and the mistaken idea that they have right on their side is just about the same.

    OK Ministers, lead the way – Give up the luxurious trappings of state – No more trips anywhere in 5 star hotels. Swap the Daimlers and BMW’s for something the country can afford, like a second hand Morris Minor.

    It is astounding that there is one rule for them, and another for the peasants, but when are they going to understand THAT YOU CANNOT KEEP ON TAKING AWAY HARD EARNED MONEY FROM TAXPAYERS THAT ALREADY HAVE VERY LITTLE!

    The only way out of this financial mess that they created is to grow the economy – make it boom and boost income that way, while making sure we produce everything we can to make us self sufficient to cut imports. It is not rocket science, surely?

    1. Bryan Harris
      September 7, 2021

      Ah, Sir JR.

      I wonder why you are hesitant in approving this post?

      If it were untrue you would have deleted it?

  31. Nota#
    September 6, 2021

    “The way to speed a welcome reduction in the deficit is to speed growth by lower tax rates.”

    Sir John, you are thinking to much like a Conservative. You’ve seen the history, you’ve seen how things work. However you have found yourself embedded in a metro left socialist Government. Your party has been hijacked by ego, the tax and spend doctrine of the left, that just doesn’t give a dam about the UK or its economy as long as they have the opportunity to create the senseless ‘grandstanding virtue signal’

    1. glen cullen
      September 6, 2021

      Too the point & spot on

  32. ChrisS
    September 6, 2021

    Oh, if only John Redwood was Chancellor !

    Having followed this blog for quite a few years, this is the first time I can ever recall you calling any policy of a Conservative Government “particularly stupid.” Yet that is exactly what it is.

    As a fellow follower of Arthur Laffer’s theory on taxation, I would have thought the Treasury would have grasped the concept by now, especially after the obvious leap in activity seen in the property market brought on by the reduction in Stamp Duty. We have discussed here before the steady erosion in the real value of the take from Capital Gains Tax which have followed every change in the tax starting with Gordon Brown and made infinitely worse by Osbourne.
    These are just the most obvious examples, yet, we have a Chancellor ready and willing to put up taxes when we need to see rapid growth in the economy to recover from the Pandemic and to cement the gains to come from Brexit.

    I don’t confess to have a pain-free solution for paying for Social Care but I do know that it is shameful that working families are having to pay more in tax just so that offspring can inherit a house from a parents in receipt of social and nursing care. I have a clear example of a couple I know owning a Ā£1m house outright and are receiving Ā£45,000 a year in nursing home fees with no first charge being placed on the 50% of the house owned by the person in care. That cannot be right.

    1. Peter Parsons
      September 7, 2021

      Ah, another disciple of napkin economics (Laffer’s theory was drawn up on a napkin while sat in a restaurant). The biggest problem with Laffer’s theory is that noone knows which side of the peak they are on, so while a cut in a tax rate might result in an increased tax take, it is equally likely to result in a reduction. Do some reading on the “Kansas Experiment” to see the real world effects of Laffer’s ideas put into practise.

      1. Peter2
        September 7, 2021

        Ah the unique Kansas example used by the anti Laffer left to dispute his theory.
        Used often to reduce tobacco consumption by setting tax at so high a level that demand (even for an addictive substance) falls.
        Reduce the top rate of income tax and see revenues rise contrary to all you anti Laffer experts.
        Increase Capital Gains tax rates and see revenues fall.
        Reduce stamp duty and see house sales boom.

        Somewhere between zero and 100% is a number which creates maximum revenues.
        To deny that is ridiculous.

        1. MiC
          September 8, 2021

          No one is “anti-Laffer”

          What people of good sense are is anti-the myths built around the theory, generally that the point of maximum tax revenues is at a very low rate of tax.

          And it depends enormously on what that tax buys for the entrepreneur and for everyone else too, e.g. a very well-educated pool of talent from which to recruit, first class infrastructure, etc. – or not.

        2. hefner
          September 8, 2021

          Indeed L2, indeed, ā€˜somewhere between zero and 100% is a number which creates maximum revenuesā€™.
          Would you be kind enough to tell us what this number is for income tax, for NI, for CGT, for IHT, for local taxes, for VAT, ā€¦ ? Is there one value for all these taxes? Is it valid whatever the country?
          What do you make of Trabandt and Ullig 2011 who put the inflexion point at 70%, of Hsing 1996 at around 34%, of Pecorino 1995 at 65%, and of Heijman et al 2005 who claim that no major OECD country could increase revenue by reducing the marginal tax rate.

          The Laffer curve is the little toy given to ā€˜childrenā€™ by neoliberals to give them the feeling they understand taxation.

          1. Peter2
            September 8, 2021

            It depends heffy, because as we see with some lefty governments, the real ambition is to destroy capitalism by depressing the economy via ever higher taxes on enterprise.
            If however, the ambition is to simply raise revenues, then the Laffer idea is one useful tool to consider what that best rate might be.
            Perhaps that is why the left always react with hatred for Professor Laffer.
            It seems to be employed in reducing tobacco consumption and in other attempts to modify behaviour the state wants to reduce but this is always ignored by you anti ladders.
            PS
            There are thousands of economists hef.
            Your three are examples of those who disagree.
            Nothing more.

          2. Peter2
            September 8, 2021

            Typo
            Anti Laffers

          3. Peter Parsons
            September 8, 2021

            +1

        3. Peter Parsons
          September 8, 2021

          “Reduce the top rate of income tax and see revenues rise contrary to all you anti Laffer experts.”

          Perhaps you should read some detail and understand some context. What happened when it was announced that the 50p rate would be reduced to 45p was entirely understandable – people engaged in income deferral. I take it that you are aware that, in the last year of the 50p rate, the amount of income declared was, according to HMRC’s description, “artificially low”. Why? Because people at that level of the income scale are probably in a position to defer their March income until April, thus flipping it into the next tax year (it doesn’t even have to be the end of April, April 7th would do the job). I’m sure a lot of the city bankers whose bonuses are normally paid at the end of March did this. If I was the agent for a Premier League footballer, I’d be asking the player’s club to do this.

          It’s a perfectly rational response to an opportunity that was presented by the government, but to argue it as evidence for Laffer’s thought experiment is naive and flawed logic.

          1. Peter2
            September 8, 2021

            That top rate reduction was just one example Peter and I note you are naively only looking at the immediate effect just after the rate was lowered.
            The improved revenue has now continued for years afterwards.
            At the time many top economists said it would cost billions.
            The opposite happened.

            Presumably hitting smokers with rates so high it reduces smoking and therefore revenues of tobacco duty is also not a good example and is flawed logic too.

        4. Peter Parsons
          September 8, 2021

          And, re. house sales, they boomed because the stamp duty cut was temporary, with defined dates as to when it was going back to the previous levels. I would fully expect to see a noticeable dip in house sales after the levels revert back at the end of this month not because of going back to the previous tax levels, but because lots of transactions that would naturally have happened this winter and next spring were bought forward ahead of the June 30th cutoff.

          1. Peter2
            September 8, 2021

            So the lower rate encouraged greater economic activity and its effect on revenue was less than predicted.
            A classic example of the Laffer effect.

  33. Nota#
    September 6, 2021

    From the MsM to day
    “UK tax take highest in 70 years. Burden of tax as a % of GDP “

    More taxes without internal house keeping from the State is how you kill the economy – ‘Its the economy stupid!’

  34. JoolsB
    September 6, 2021

    A jobs rise is not only a bad idea and a deterrent to jobs but your party promised in their manifesto John NOT to raise taxes which theyā€™ve already done by freezing tax allowances and allowing council tax, the most punitive tax of all. to be increased above the rate of inflation. The voter doesnā€™t like being taken for mugs and they certainly donā€™t like liars.

    What a shame we donā€™t have a Conservative Government in power to tackle the vast amount of waste of taxpayersā€™ money instead of choosing their socialist preferred option of raiding our pockets even further. How about taking an axe to the bloated public sector including parliament and including their over generous taxpayer funded pensions. Cancel HS2, cut foreign aid further, sort out immigration, get our 65 billion back off the banks instead of allowing their shareholders to receive dividends from their profits. Or thereā€™s the billions of pounds it must cost the nanny state to pay for free childcare for everyone, even those on six figure salaries. Oh and what about the 35 billion of English taxes your Government bungs to the devolved nations every year without consulting us. Social care in England, the only part the U.K. Government is responsible for, is in crisis, and 35 billion would be more than enough to cover it.

    I hope the rumours are not true that your Government are thinking of charging pensioners in England for their prescriptions especially when the devolved nations, including millionaires, receive them for free courtesy of the English taxes this Conservative Government throws at them.

  35. Christine
    September 6, 2021

    Workers stop paying NI contributions once they reach retirement age, so by increasing the age to 67 the government automatically rakes in extra tax.

    On top of this many working women have lost over Ā£65k each in pension payments by having their retirement age raised from 60 to 67 and working men over Ā£18.5k each by having their retirement age raised from 65 to 67.

    Add to this the changes to the state pension scheme whereby any old contributions where the employee was contracted out to their employerā€™s scheme no longer count as contributory years and we see another stealth tax. Many workers are yet to realise that although they have worked all their lives they wonā€™t be able to get a full pension. Yet those who have lived a life on benefits including people who have never even set foot in this country will get a full pension.

    So what is the government doing with all this extra revenue? They just seem to waste it on vanity projects and their lunatic net-zero agenda.

    I predict people will be very angry if they are expected to pay even more tax.

    If the backbenchers donā€™t stop Boris and his cabinet they will lose the next election.

  36. William Long
    September 6, 2021

    It was a big disappointment that Sunak did not wind up the not-fit-for-purpose OBR the day he took office. Responsibility for the nations finances lies with the Chancellor himself and not with a quango of so-called experts and he should be prepared to take the action he thinks is right and not hide behind the views of others, particularly when, as you say, the data on which they base their advice is so obviously flawed.

  37. BJC
    September 6, 2021

    I’m already paying a separate and ever-increasing precept (tax) for “Social Care” on my Council Tax bill, paid from already taxed income. How many times does the government think I should pay for this? Perhaps the answer is to stop importing those who are wholly dependent on the taxpayers’largesse, so funding can be diverted to where it’s truly needed?

    1. Dave Andrews
      September 6, 2021

      These proposed tax increases won’t go on social care; that’s just an excuse for inefficient public sector. They will just be swallowed up in government waste with no benefit to anyone.

    2. Cheshire Girl
      September 6, 2021

      Iā€™m doing the same thing. I think that people who will have to pay more NI, should get a reduction in Council Tax.

  38. Nota#
    September 6, 2021

    More than 1,000 senior civil servants have received six-figure ā€œgolden goodbyesā€ worth over Ā£100 million since MPs passed a law five years ago to ‘outlaw them’.

    Public Sector Workers contribute 50% more a pension scheme but the payout is 300% more for the same pro rata than the private sector funding to the same fund. The taxpayer isn’t treated the same, it isnt seen as beeing an equal. Very much a them and us society.

    HS2 a train the to nowhere for the very few original Ā£37billion cost today Ā£106billion – social care costs to the State Ā£23 billion a year coming from a NHI revenue Ā£145billion. NHI raise would produce Ā£11billion.

    Government cant account for State Costs now how would it change if they take in more taxpayer wealth – pay for unaccountable chums on advisory boards comes to mind

  39. Javelin
    September 6, 2021

    When I look the things wrong in my life these have invariably been the result of Government policies.

  40. DaveM
    September 6, 2021

    Just another disastrous policy from a clueless, lazy, people pleasing PM. Just a shame heā€™s trying to appease people who would never vote conservative in a million yearsā€¦ā€¦while driving away those voters he wooed with (what they hoped) would see a reintroduction of sensible government.

    I never thought Johnson would be a good PM but Iā€™m still sad he isnā€™t. Still, heā€™ll get another book out of it. My suggested title would be ā€œHow to Squander an 80 Seat Majority in 18 Monthsā€.

    1. Micky Taking
      September 6, 2021

      or even ‘How to achieve sweet FA in short order with a house stuffed with sheep’.

  41. Rhoddas
    September 6, 2021

    Absolutely correct, no need to raise taxes, much better to get the growth we can much more easily now we’ve left the dead hand of EU control.
    I hear rumour the Chancellor has a big retained VAT windfall too, as we no longer remit some VAT to the EU, be interested to know what OBR say that actually is (~Ā£10bn/yr?).
    Please please cut government waste, vanity projects and reduce interference/quangoes. Many on these pages list them.
    And stop the trafficked illegal economic boat migrants, that hasn’t gone away.

  42. Original Richard
    September 6, 2021

    ā€œThe way to speed a welcome reduction in the deficit is to speed growth by lower tax rates.ā€

    Is growth even legal now our Parliament has legislated for net zero by 2050?

    Would it not be more sensible to cut unnecessary building projects such as HS2 which will be expensive to build and maintain, producing vast amounts of CO2 in the process, and resulting in a transport system that only the wealthy and those travelling at taxpayersā€™ expense can afford?

    A far cheaper and better alternative would be to convert the line to large wide bodied trains that can carry large numbers of passengers at cheap prices up and down the country for Ā£10 return rather than Ā£1000 return. In aircraft terms, Jumbos instead of Concordes.

    The requirement for extra money for health and social care gives the government a perfect excuse to cancel HS2.

  43. Original Richard
    September 6, 2021

    ā€œThe Chancellor behaves as if he believes the Office of Budget Responsibility forecasts.ā€

    How can accurate forecasts or plans be made if we donā€™t know how many people are living in the UK or how many are going to be allowed into the UK?

  44. rose
    September 6, 2021

    I agree with you whole heartedly on tax.

    I think, also, the driving force of inheritance is being underestimated in many quarters. People will start and run businesses of all kinds to hand on something to the next generation. They will slog their guts out to help their families get a better start then they got. If it is all to be confiscated, where is the incentive? The economy would be the first to suffer from this most fundamental of human instincts being thwarted.

  45. Mark Thomas
    September 6, 2021

    Sir John,
    For most voters the choice now is between the party of tax more and spend more, versus the party of tax even more and spend even more. Not much of an alternative for those who believe in fiscal restraint.

    1. JoolsB
      September 6, 2021

      +1.

  46. Andy
    September 6, 2021

    The latest proposed Tory Brexit pensioner tax is a very bad idea.

    They want to increase National Insurance – a tax which unfairly penalises younger people – so granny has her care home subsidised and doesnā€™t have to sell her Surrey mansion to pay for it. (If she can actually find anyone to care for her because she voted for all the carers to go home.)

    Erm, no. Granny gets enough handouts from us. Handouts for old people cost my wife and I an absolute fortune. Our tax bill is vast and pensioner perks are, by far, the biggest part of our taxes. Handouts for pensioners are, literally, our biggest monthly expense. More than our mortgage and school fees combined. A fortune for the ungrateful.

    I donā€™t care that Quentin wonā€™t inherit as much if granny has to pay to have her own bottom wiped. Your care is not my problem. I am saving for my own care if you didnā€™t save for yours – tough. Thatā€™s down to you.

    Regular people should not be penalised by this proposed toff tax.

    1. No Longer Anonymous
      September 6, 2021

      Andy

      I agree.

      What is not fare is that granny should pay double her care home fee to subsidise the person in the next bed.

      The fact is that if children don’t look after granny then they shouldn’t expect full inheritance, though I know plenty (including myself) who did plenty of pee bottle holding and the occaisional bottom wiping before it became too much and handed over to the carers for a while… mainly because Pa didn’t want me doing it, out of embarrassment.

      The fact is that a kid can do much of the care and STILL get wiped out by care home fees in the end.

      Stop the care home rip offs and (btw) Help to Move and not Help to Buy to get single grannies out of big family homes. Alas the Govt doesn’t want house prices falling to sensible levels as it is a way of printing money.

    2. Mike Wilson
      September 6, 2021

      Iā€™m not grateful. I paid taxes for 48 years so that people older than me had pensions and care. Itā€™s my turn now. No gratitude deserved or necessary. Are you grateful for the schools and roads my taxes paid for?

    3. Barry
      September 7, 2021

      Perhaps a “chip on shoulder” tax is the answer.

      1. MiC
        September 8, 2021

        What, to be levied on the ones who resent those who did better than them at school, and who got the interesting jobs with the proper occupational pensions, you mean, Barry?

  47. glen cullen
    September 6, 2021

    ā€˜ā€™A tax rise is a very bad ideaā€™ā€™ ā€“ thatā€™s the understatement of the political decade

    Every Tory MP needs to turn their backs on this proposal and turn their backs on Boris in the Chamberā€¦.you canā€™t possibly disregard a pledge given as a written guarantee in your manifesto and expect to win the faith of the people and the next election

    Its your own catch-phrase SirJ ā€“ ā€˜ā€™We donā€™t believe youā€™ā€™

  48. Parsley
    September 6, 2021

    What is Mr Redowood’s answer to the Social Care problem?

    1. No Longer Anonymous
      September 6, 2021

      I’d have no problem funding my own care with my own house. What I do have a problem with is having to pay the carehome double to fund the person in the bed next to me.

      Children should not expect a full inheritance if they do not look after their parents themselves.

  49. Everhopeful
    September 6, 2021

    Donā€™t all these policiesā€¦spending, taxation all come from the IMF anyway?
    Govts were told to spend, spend, spend and now to tax everything that moves!

  50. Mike Wilson
    September 6, 2021

    Mr. Redwood, you are mentioned today on The Guardianā€™s web site. You are referred to as ā€˜the Conservative rightwingerā€™.

    If I were you, Iā€™d take exception to being described as ā€˜right wingā€™. It suggests someone with fascist, racist and bigoted views. None of which, in any way, could be associated with you. Iā€™d ask them to stop referring to you as right wing.

    1. Micky Taking
      September 6, 2021

      better could have been ‘ Part of the small Conservative Wing who are right.’

    2. No Longer Anonymous
      September 6, 2021

      +1

      And there is nothing right wing about John Redwood.

    3. MiC
      September 7, 2021

      That’s taking victimhood-claiming a bit far, old chap.

  51. Andy
    September 6, 2021

    The Brexitists have an urgent problem. A problem of shortages which has led to a surplus. A surplus of pigs.

    A Brexit related shortage of abattoir workers and butchers means not enough pigs are being killed for meat. There are now so many pigs it is uneconomical for farmers to feed them. So the pigs will be killed and then their bodies will probably be burned.

    It turns out that Brexitists donā€™t want to work in abattoirs. Whoā€™s have thought?

    Anyway the images of tens of thousand of dead pigs being burned will destroy any last hope the Brexitists have of saving their failed project. We are nation of animal lovers.

    None of the Brexitists I know much like other people. Tell them a story about orphans fleeing war and risking their lives in a dinghy and the Brexitists still demand deportation and imprisonments. But tell them about a bunch of starving dogs in Kabul or a diseased alpaca and they go mental.

    Enjoy your burning pig carcasses. Iā€™m a vegetarian.

    1. Mike Wilson
      September 6, 2021

      So, according to your bizarre logic, Labour Brexitists donā€™t want to work in an abattoir. (Tory Brexitists donā€™t need to do manual work, they use their intelligence to work with their heads, not their hands.)

      If Labour Brexitists donā€™t want to work in an abattoir, presumably Labour Remainers do want to work in an abattoir. Please report for work at 8.00 am tomorrow.

      I am vegan which trumps your vegetarianism as you support the vile dairy industry. And eggs of course.

      1. MiC
        September 7, 2021

        I take it that you’re not a barrister then, Mike?

    2. Peter2
      September 7, 2021

      Pay an better attractive wage and people will take these jobs.
      Would you do it for minimum wage andy?

      1. MiC
        September 8, 2021

        There seem to be all sorts of dissonances on the Right.

        Like that the UK could leave the European Union and yet continue the benefits which stemmed exclusively from membership.

        Another is becoming apparent.

        That is, that you can’t buck the market. Unless it is the labour market, they seem to imagine.

        These capitalists are not offering anything like what job seekers want, and yet cannot understand why no one is applying.

        When they finally wake up and the costs are passed on to food, to beer, and to many other things, then I will gladly pay the increases.

        I’m not so sure about many Leave voters though.

        1. Peter2
          September 8, 2021

          Wages are rising MiC
          Lorry drivers are now being offered much higher wages and better conditions and free training.
          Thought you would be pleased.
          PS
          One of leave campaigners points was that wages of UK workers were being suppressed and even reduced by importing people who found even our minimum wage very attractive.
          Which is why a lot of those affected voted to leave the EU
          And it seems they were right.

  52. turboterrier
    September 6, 2021

    The trouble is that a heck of a lot of voters are totally disillusioned with the new way of delivering politics. All the smoke and mirrors method of delivery germinated distrust. A classic example in the DM on line is the situation in Glasgow due to host the big environmental conference COP 26 when all the world leaders will be present taking in the history and architecture when underneath the two main motorway flyovers there is a mountain of rat infested rubbish bought about by cutting back on waste bin collections.
    Skillfully and deliberately ignored by the politicians at both national and local level. Glib replies to questions and no one owns the problem. All the while other so called priorities like independence and getting more funding make the headline news. All the talk in the world but no guts to do anything about it, in the hope it just might disappear. How did it ever get to this?
    Lack of real leadership?

  53. Iago
    September 6, 2021

    A tax rise is a very bad idea for the country.
    So is bringing huge numbers of Afghans to this country. Johnson’s figures are in reality limitless.
    So is ‘vaccinating’ young people and without parental consent, the vastly expensive government propaganda and psychological pressuring, the bash-up police, the facilitated invasion on the south coast and on and on. Where do shamdemic Johnson and the other ministers get their policies from? How do we rid ourselves of this monster?

    1. beresford
      September 6, 2021

      They get their policies from the World Economic Forum, which is why administrations around the world are ‘coincidentally’ implementing the same stuff. Taxes must go up to pay for the ferrying, housing, feeding and clothing of the ‘new ‘ population they are importing. Even JR will eventually come round to realising that mass immigration is the policy of his party (and the other parties).

    2. Timaction
      September 6, 2021

      Totally agree.

  54. Newmania
    September 6, 2021

    I struggle to see any economic logic to a tax rises at this stage. I take the political logic to be that its best to raise taxes and break promises now when you can blame Covid , especially a vicious tax on work and ordinary people.

  55. glen cullen
    September 6, 2021

    Never allow Conservative vice-chair Andrew Bowie MP to appear on the BBC Politics Live 12:15 BBC2 againā€¦.he couldnā€™t answer the 5-6 attempts to question his stance on National Insurance increaseā€¦.he was made to look foolish, your party looked foolish

  56. agricola
    September 6, 2021

    I agree with your last sentence. I think it was Nigel Lawson who found that reducing income tax actually increased ths overall tax take. What is the lag in time between reducing tax and the Treasury benefitting. Once established we know when we can introduce a late life care programme.
    There are many taxes, when removed, that would have a direct effect on investment. Other reductions reduce the need to cheat and underline the incentive to expand business, ergo the greater tax take. Try selling this principal to those who have no idea how business and human nature works among the entrepreneurial of our population.

  57. Denis Cooper
    September 6, 2021

    Off topic:

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/john-redwood-uk-eu-northern-ireland-brexit-288838/

    “Redwood suggests UK ā€˜should break international treaty agreed with EUā€™”

    If that is so then Redwood is right., if the EU continues to rule out making any changes to the treaty.

    Better to have a brief period of national disgrace than an indefinite period of national humiliation.

    In any case, two prominent EU-supporting lawyers say that one part of the treaty should be changed:

    https://www.ft.com/content/a1acf003-cc3f-41e7-800d-6d3aebed0732

    “The intervention by George Peretz QC of Monckton Chambers and James Webber of Shearman & Sterling supports arguments made in July by Cabinet Office minister Lord David Frost that article 10 of the Northern Ireland protocol was now ā€œredundantā€ and should be removed.”

    If that part can be changed, why should not other parts also be changed?

    1. No Longer Anonymous
      September 6, 2021

      Anything we do is going to be overshadowed by actions in Taiwan soon.

    2. Andy
      September 6, 2021

      Sigh. The Northern Ireland Protocol is Brexit. Pretty much every Tory MP voted for it. It is not being scrapped.

      You really should get over it. Apparently you won something.

      1. Denis Cooper
        September 7, 2021

        “The Northern Ireland Protocol is Brexit.”

        What a silly ill-informed thing to write.

    3. MiC
      September 6, 2021

      Look up “agreement” in a comprehensive dictionary, Denis.

      1. Denis Cooper
        September 7, 2021

        Another silly thing to write.

        1. Micky Taking
          September 8, 2021

          agreed!

    4. mancunius
      September 6, 2021

      But Article 10 is just the State Aid provision. The problem is with the whole shebang. However true it is that it is largely down to the EU’s deliberate exploitation of every provision, that probability was obviously contained in the drafting.

      1. Denis Cooper
        September 7, 2021

        Yes, but if the EU softened its present intransigence and agreed to reopen the protocol to amend/delete that provision that could be the thin end of the wedge to get other necessary changes.

  58. paul
    September 6, 2021

    There won’t be a rise in NI for the care bill, the rebel in parliament will stop it and care bill will kicked into the long grass as planed.

  59. glen cullen
    September 6, 2021

    What good we spend Ā£205bn on nuclear weapons
    They havenā€™t stopped Russia waging a cyber war
    They didnā€™t help when the Taliban threw us out of Afghanistan
    They didnā€™t help when Iran torpedoed ships in the Strait of Hormuz
    And they didnā€™t help Taiwan when China yesterday flew 19 warplanes into their airspaceā€¦.better spend the money on our elderly and social-care and curtail the planned NI increase

    1. Original Richard
      September 6, 2021

      glen Cullen :

      ā€œWhat good we spend Ā£205bn on nuclear weapons
      They havenā€™t stopped Russia waging a cyber warā€..

      Maybe, but perhaps our possession of nuclear weapons has stopped Russia either threatening us with their nuclear weapons or even using them against us.

      And for the same reason I want us to have nuclear weapons to protect us against China, North Korea and very soon Iran.

      1. glen cullen
        September 6, 2021

        Our strategic defence policy doesnā€™t mentions defence against attack of nuclear weapons from any state, but it does as a top priority list cyber war, world economic stability & trade, and terrorism

    2. MiC
      September 6, 2021

      Excellent post, Glen.

  60. Micky Taking
    September 6, 2021

    OFF TOPIC.
    Although not in your patch Sir John – Wexham Park Hospital – you could invite Mrs May to check, is it in hers?
    I gather the ICU wards have 64 Covid patients, 2 female 62 male. Typical age group 40 to 50. Innoculations – none.

  61. BW
    September 6, 2021

    I think because of the decisions this week will be the last straw for many of us. Boris will lose the next election. How many more manifesto promises can he throw out of the window. I will never vote Tory again.

  62. acorn
    September 6, 2021

    Land and Property wealth, like all capital assets, are difficult to tax. The best way of taxing them is when they get transferred from one owner to another, whence the market value of such assets gets exposed to the tax man. Inheritance Tax and Capital Gains Tax for instance.

    I suggest an interim expansion of Council Tax to pay for the Adult Care Service. Add four more Bands to the current eight in England, that is I,J,K and L. The Band D multiplier would follow the current formula style such that Band “I” would be 22/9 of Band D. Band “J” would be 25/9; “K” would be 30/9 and “L” would be 36/9 of Band D. That would put the brakes on an out of control Residential Housing Market, until that is, we get around to a proper Land Value Tax system. šŸ˜‰

    1. MiC
      September 7, 2021

      We once had a far better system.

      It was called “rates”.

    2. hefner
      September 7, 2021

      a, Well, interesting idea, I see where you might be coming from. A neighbouring property bought in 1993 for Ā£235k was sold in the spring of 2020 for Ā£744k, and over the 26 years it had remained a band G for council tax purposes.
      The only addition to your suggestion would be to enforce a way to make sure that the extra money collected this way would be actually kept and used for social care by the local authorities.

  63. jon livesey
    September 6, 2021

    It is interesting to see how many readers here live in a small closed economy with no foreign investors. In such an economy you can debate what level taxes should be till the cows come home.

    However, we live in a large open economy with many foreign investors who watch very carefully how the Chancellor balances the books. The Chancellor’s job number one is to satisfy onlookers that he has control of the economy, that debt levels will come down and that inflation will stay within bounds.

    And by the way, these onlookers are not followers of exotic economic philosophers, they don’t do MMT, and they invested in the UK because they perceive it as being a stable, rather dull kind of economy, a sort of anti-Argentina.

    And that is why the Chancellor is going to give us some modest tax rises that won’t really inconvenience anyone, but which will give the right impression, no matter what he thinks personally.

    1. hefner
      September 7, 2021

      jl, +1

  64. a-tracy
    September 6, 2021

    When things have been tight at work I look at ways to save money first before I put rates up and potentially lose business causing more problems. The UK needs to look at all its current unutilised people resources. People on furlough and universal credit could be passed some work to do in local care homes and other short labour markets we are being told about, single parents with school-age children could work school hours in local care homes and get trained and certificates of work they could use in the future. Asylum seekers could be accommodated near meatpacking factories and farms that need low skilled labour. No one should get housing benefits and universal credit with nothing at all expected in return for more than a couple to three months maximum. If they don’t like the work allocated, perhaps they will find themselves better paid or easier jobs elsewhere.

    You’re having a laugh expecting graduates and other young workers with big bills already to pay even more national insurance! You are already taking Tax 20% NI + 12% + 13.8% Nest 5% + 3%, student loan 9%, council tax, fuel tax, insurance tax, VAT – get the lazy people to contribute. People have shown they can work from home; there is work that these people on benefits can do on their telephones, manning call lines, samaritans, anything, take the excuses away and force them into work before you come after the same people paying up all the time, the easy targets.

    1. Micky Taking
      September 8, 2021

      But a-tracy, the Conservatives are the party of low taxation, aren’t they?

  65. Original Richard
    September 6, 2021

    Raising N.I. must have all those people who donā€™t work laughing their heads off.

    Including all the undocumented illegal immigrants, the majority of whom are fighting age men, who are invited to come for free 4 star hotel accommodation, free health and social care, free translation services, Ā£40/week pocket money and the freedom to roam our streets until they can abscond into the N.I. free black/criminal market

    1. a-tracy
      September 7, 2021

      I agree original Richard. I think the thing that most annoys me is all of lifeā€™s freeloaders, women I know that have never worked or contributed living on benefits all their lives are laughing their heads off with their extra universal payments for the last few years (theyā€™ll be whinging about that ending soon), these people donā€™t leave money because they spend it, their housing is covered by the state, when their kids get too old to pay their wages they start getting ill developing pip living allowances and now the state is guaranteeing them free social care whilst others who have been contributing are paying in more now and will have to pay in more then. You wonā€™t tackle it. It wonā€™t be headed off. Everyone knows itā€™s going on. Iā€™m sick to the back teeth of people who just got lucky with a southern property gain whinging about paying for their care wanting to leave their million pound property that they didnā€™t achieve through great skill, enterprise or endeavour just buying in the right place at the right time. If their kids want to inherit the full amount then its simple they just need to look after them. There are two ends of the same problem and the ones caught in the middle are just having to stump up. Easy targets – weā€™ve had enough John!

  66. glen cullen
    September 6, 2021

    I measure this governments action by asking what their effect is upon a small UK town and an overseas country ā€“ I choose Pembroke and Peru
    Then I ask myself what is the effect of increasing NI on both
    And I ask what is the effect of Afghanistan on both
    It puts things into perspective and highlights the divide between the people & MPs

    1. hefner
      September 7, 2021

      gc, why did you choose Pembroke and Peru? And your final conclusions are?

      1. glen cullen
        September 7, 2021

        I wanted to choose a country that appears to have little international interaction and limited global interventions, so I went to South America and choose Peru probably due to Paddington Bear
        I decided I wanted to link them both by their first letter so I choose a town, which had a small population, but history and a distance away from London and the list threw out Pembroke
        Neither town nor country knew where Afghanistan was, why we are there or why we got involvedā€¦no benefit to either Peru or Pembroke

  67. Iain Gill
    September 6, 2021

    who exactly is supporting these nonsense policies and implementations the government, or should i say Carrie, keep coming out with? the cabinet not even been briefed on it? the back benches? the cloak room attendant?

    its nonsense can someone tell the emperor that he has no clothes on?

  68. rose
    September 6, 2021

    “War should only be a last resort and should only be used where there does need to be a decisive change which cannot be achieved by talking. There is plenty of collateral damage from warfare ā€“ that is elite talk for more people losing their lives and more property and livelihoods being demolished, as others disagree violently. We need to get better at talking and persuading, if needs be with realistic threats that we would rather not carry out. People need to know we can and will use force as a last resort as we seek to show them that there are better ways for them as well as us.”

    In your article in Conservative Home, I should have liked a really cogent definition of casus belli. In my book, that included the Falklands and Kuwait but none of the others since, bar the first part of the Afghan war which was a response by NATO to an attack on one of its members. Nation building and regime change are not justified. That is not what the British armed forces are for.

    Sierra Leone alone can be justified – by its result, but it might not have come off as it was fiendishly complicated and difficult, and it was only the brilliant execution by the British army which carried it to a successful conclusion.

  69. mancunius
    September 6, 2021

    Pretending that an NIC tax rise is going go towards elderly care costs is particularly badly spun. To ask the generation that is most burdened by tax to pay extra for those who have either not bothered to save any money (in some cases not worked sufficiently to earn pension, so are already dependent on the taxpayer) is infammatory. To ask them to subsidise the well-to-do elderly who have property assets that are treated as sacred, when those younger taxpayers are themselves struggling to get and pay down a mortgage – or have given it up as impossible – this is monstrously unfair.
    Let us each and every one pay for our own elderly care, through a separate insurance, and not some fraudulent NIC-type pretence. No pay, no get.

    1. a-tracy
      September 7, 2021

      I’m really surprised some enterprising young men and women haven’t set up their own private care service for wealthier people who want to protect their home assets to pass on to the next generation and can afford the private care fees to be seen at their home a couple of times each day. The government should facilitate police checks and evidence of care/first aid training that business partners could use to promote their own small businesses.

    2. hefner
      September 7, 2021

      m, I could agree with you if you were to add an actual way of monitoring how this separate insurance would actually be handled by its providers. Some participation/representation by policyholders on the Boards of Directors?

  70. mancunius
    September 6, 2021

    Two insertions: *inflammatory* and “who are struggling to even find an affordable property, as well as to get and pay down a mortgage…”

    1. a-tracy
      September 7, 2021

      I agree, this is going to go down like a lead balloon.

  71. Iain Gill
    September 6, 2021

    oh dear MP’s now need Covid passports to speak to the PM…

    the politicians have gone stark raving bonkers

  72. beresford
    September 6, 2021

    Just seen a clip of Johnson telling the Commons that the occupation of Afghanistan was not a failure because of the success of the evacuation. As a well-known columnist would say ‘You couldn’t make it up’.

  73. Iain Gill
    September 7, 2021

    2 coal fired power stations taken out of standby because the windfarms electricity production is down and our consumption is up…

    you have to laugh at how badly our dogma driven energy mix lets us down

    we are lucky we still had old coal power stations in mothballs

    luck not good planning

  74. Oldwulf
    September 7, 2021

    We have too many taxes ….. too much bureaucracy costs money.

    Also, tax rates are too high on the things the economy needs most …

    Jobs …. National Insurance and
    Spending …. Value Added Tax

    The government and the public sector urgently need to stop wasting money and to defer spending money on things which are not a priority …. oh … and to make more effort to replace imports with home produced stuff.

  75. Mactheknife
    September 7, 2021

    My local Conservative MP was told in no uncertain terms last week that if there are tax increases and the triple lock goes, then he is ‘toast’ as they say. Another seat back to the Red Wall.

    We don’t want Starmer but the Conservative policies are from the Labour playbook, so why not reinstall the Red Wall as there seems little difference at present ?

    PS I note a delicious little irony that they have had to fire up coal fired power stations to ensure electricity supply in the UK as the wind has stopped blowing and APAC markets have driven up the cost of gas. Time for Fracking and clean coal to come back on the agenda.

  76. Nick@Barkham
    September 7, 2021

    All I can say is it’s wonderful to be living under this marvellous Labour Government….

  77. Geoffrey Berg
    September 7, 2021

    Boris Johnson and others simply don’t understand Conservative voters, especially nowadays when most voters are less tribal. Probably nearly half of Conservative voters vote Conservative not because they like the Conservative Party (it is very unfashionable to do so in polite society) but because in the secrecy of the ballot box they believe they will pay less tax than with other Parties. Most of them are not going to believe that any longer with Boris Johnson breaking his promises on their personal tax . That will probably change a very probable victory (even with Johnson not realising another portion of Conservative voters, especially some of its Brexit voters and ex-Labour voters are privately extremely anti-immigration) into a very probable defeat at the next general election.B

  78. Iain Moore
    September 7, 2021

    Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will receive 15% more in Social Care funding than they pay, some Ā£300 million, yet again the British state bleeds England for cash.

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