- Controlling inflation
We have a fast inflation now thanks to a reckless monetary policy 2020-21. The Chancellor was wrong to authorise the last £150bn of money printing in 2021 on top of the £300 bn he had authorised during the covid lockdowns. The Bank used this extra money to keep interest rates down, and some of the money found its way through the banking system into driving up general prices as well as the obvious inflation in the price of bonds and other financial assets which they were directly buying. The Chancellor was wrong to sign a complete indemnity for the Bank against all their likely losses on the bonds they bought, which are now falling in value as rates rise.
The good news is the Chancellor did end his money printing at the end of 2021. Inflation will fall away rapidly next year as the impact of the higher interest rates and the slower rate of money growth now filter through. Running a bit larger deficit will not boost inflation as long as it is financed by longer term borrowing at market rates without artificial creations of new money. What the state spends will then be saved by the private sector lending the money to the government.
2.Getting the deficit down
Last year the deficit, the gap between tax revenue and state spending, came in £90bn lower than the stupid Treasury/OBR forecasts. They completely misjudged again the impact of faster growth on borrowing, As the economy grew faster so much more revenue came in from all the extra transactions and incomes earned by growth, whilst state spending on unemployment related costs fell. Stamp duties surged on more transactions spurred by the rate reductions. This year there is the reverse danger that they will end up borrowing more as they are slowing the economy too much. If they bring on a recession then revenues will fall short and the costs of unemployment will go up. It is best to get the deficit down by going for growth. Getting value for money from spending also matters and cutting back the excessive public sector overhead would help.
3. Taxing to death
The biggest Treasury mistake of the last two years has been the decision to go for a high tax economy. There is the social care tax, the National Insurance hike, the on line tax, the excess profits levy, the failure to increase income tax thresholds in line with inflation, the drift of many more people into higher tax bands, the extra VAT on sky high fuel bills and the threatened 31% increase in Corporation tax bills.
The economy is being slowed quite enough to flush out inflation by the big tightening of money policy and mortgage rate rises and by the big hit to people’s real incomes from the surge in energy and food prices. It does not need a third hit from taxes which no other advanced country is trying. The problem will soon be a shortage of demand and a dip to recession, not a continuing fast inflation. It is a pity our peak inflation is delayed by the energy price controls meaning it will likely come in October with the next big hike in bills.
4.Going for growth
The government needs a growth strategy. That requires a bit more demand and lower taxes. Take the VAT off domestic fuel all the time gas prices remain high. Halve the rate of VAT on petrol and diesel. Remove the extra national Insurance. Back investment in UK energy and food capacity at a time of shortages. More oil and gas from the UK will replace expensive and high CO2 imports and will generate a lot of extra tax revenue
July 10, 2022
Good morning.
The UK is in a state of limbo, although given the governments inertia over the last two years one would hardly notice. Only the lockdowns and the legislation which, if we care to remember, suddenly appeared from nowhere. Still can’t work that last bit out 😉
What concerns me now is who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party and our PM. None of them are desirable and none of them have a ideology with which to gauge them by. This is relevant to the above as this will dictate the future direction of the country. With really less than two years to go I fear another splurge of cash to buy votes.
The Tory Party is a party at war with itself. It is a Janus party, one thing to the electorate and in opposition, and another when in office.
First rule of British politics – Never trust the Tories.
July 10, 2022
Indeed all sensible points.
Sunak the current favourite would be a very bad choice indeed. He is not remotely popular with the electorate. He has been an appalling tax to death, borrow, print and waste the proceeds chancellor, he did not cancel net zero nor even HS2 yet he flies loads and has four houses (so clearly does not actually believe in the CO2 religion), his wife initially claimed special Non Dom tax status (not available to most people this saving many £million in tax), he has manifesto ratted on tax, NI and the pension triple lock, he even announced (why on earth in advance) huge increases corporation taxes (to deter investment and jobs one assumes).
The other choices are not much better we need someone who can win an election, who supported leave from the outset, who wants large tax cuts, far less government and recognises that net zero rip off energy is a total con trick. Hunt, Shapps (surely almost as dim as John Major), Sunak, Truss, Javid, Tugendhat…are all totally unsuitable. Yet the hugely unpopular Sunak is still the favourite by a huge margin. His record as an incompetent, socialist, tax to death, green crap chancellor has been abysmal. He is as far from a man of the people as one can imagine.
July 10, 2022
LL
I fear whoever we choose will loose the next GE. We only have the party top brass to blame because of the way they have conducted themselves recently. They have provided the left leaning media with umpteen sticks to beat us with.
Any would be leadership candidate with any sense realises it and thus hasn’t stood.
Boris had so much support and goodwill from the public and could have made such a difference to where our country is but, he blew it. He has made such a difference but in a negative way and now we face a left wing lab lib green snp coalition for the next half decade. I had such great hopes for Boris but I now feel very disappointed and let down.
July 11, 2022
One surely has to be very poor indeed to lose to the dire prospect of Labour/SNP/LibDims!
July 11, 2022
JR,
Either Sunak is completely incompetent and has no idea what he is doing- presumably being led by the nose by the pro EU Treasury – or he is another liar. I think liar based on his claims to be a low tax conservative, the claim cannot be true based on his record and against the manifesto upon which he was elected. He broke the “trust” with electorate when he broke manifesto pledges. Only an utter idiot would vote for him as an MP or PM.
Thank you for providing further evidence why he cannot be trusted.
Does he realise former ministers called his budgets good socialist budgets? One before lockdown so no extraneous excuses for his socialist budget.
You have provided evidence of his failings, yet he claims he wants to restore trust when he does not know what he is doing or he does and is trying to deceive us!
You forgot his school boy errors to allow the taxpayer to lose £11.8 billion in covid fraud, which he did not want investigated then through pressure reluctantly agreed!
We the UK taxpayer cannot afford Sunak, Hunt, Javid or any of the other ministers in Johnson’s cabinet.
Who does Sunak think is paying back his £400 billion printing money scheme if not children?
July 10, 2022
The pension triple lock was a rash over-promise. Why should people who had modest taxes whilst they were working deserve a much greater burden from the current workforce, to pay their pensions (Pensioners of today much more numerous than they were in the past)? The recent pension act is a better remedy to old age finances; let people invest in their occupational schemes rather than be a burden on the state.
July 10, 2022
As I’ve said already the only low tax element about Sunak is his wife.
July 11, 2022
Did he pay back all the £millions of tax saving for earlier years or just stop his wife being non Dom from the current year and then probably not take the dividends – so as not have the tax to pay this year either? Perhaps he or his wife can clarify? All entirely legal of course – I would do the same but I am not a politician hoping to be PM. This especially as I know how much of it was wasted by Sunak. Doubtless she and he did too.
July 11, 2022
SS,
+1
Perhaps this is what he means by a low tax conservative, ie they do all they can to avoid tax themselves but do everything they can to squeeze tax out of us, same for Javid.
July 10, 2022
Sunak’s CT increases advance notice was as daft the foolish Gordon (boom & bust) Brown announcing (also in advance) that he was going to sell the UK’s gold at the bottom of the market. Both are idiots.
July 10, 2022
Lifelogic, exactly and Sunak should be asked why he announced the 31% rise in corporation tax in advance during news interviews, this policy has stopped investment and growth plans. Perhaps it was to get people to draw their money out and pay the taxes on it early this year. Or was this all to help him get rid of Boris round about now he seems to be a sneaky planner, all that about his own family not having to pay the taxes he puts on the rest of the UK did for him though.
July 11, 2022
AT,+1
July 10, 2022
So, you weren’t swayed by the piano accompaniment then?
July 10, 2022
No not the rather vacuous & pathetic content!
July 10, 2022
JR, have all your party forgot its manifesto pledges?
Has Hunt lost his memory? His record on NHS is appalling. Who prepared NHS for pandemics and Op Cygnet? Who was going to stop health tourism and quietly dropped it? Who failed to employ and attract doctors and nurses? Has he forgot his determined Brexit views? What of his large property portfolio?
Has Javid lost his memory? Javid failed in every ministerial role but managed to increase our taxes despite promises not to ie council tax. Who allowed mass immigration and the ability for them to disappear by getting rid of detention centres? Non Dom status for him tax rises for us!
Has Sunak lost his memory or leave of his senses? Sunak worse economic record in history and in the shortest time. His first budget before lockdown was a true tax and waste budget. 11 days later country lockdown! Can he add up? Can he remember US green card? Can he remember wife’s non Dom status while having highest taxation on us ordinary souls in 70 years! Worse debt, deficit, disposable income- for ordinary UK taxpayers- worse inflation. He still wanted to spaff our taxes around the world by the billion!
Good grief your party is in trouble with these deluded fools.
July 10, 2022
+1
July 10, 2022
It looks like Tory party members (if they get any say at all) will get a duff choice of tax to death, green crap, do as I say not as I do, tax avoiding Sunak (who is very unpopular and has been a disastrous Chancellor or a dire green crap pushing remoaner. What an appalling choice that would be.
Suella Braverman perhaps the best of a bad lot despite being a lawyer. Kemi Badenock and Nadhim Zahawi, Penny Maudaunt are reasonable bright and not too unsound politically.
Never trust most politicians in general is surely a better rule of politics both here and elsewhere.
July 10, 2022
Penny Mourdant would have been high on my list until see used “people” to describe women. Anyone who kowtows to the sex / gender ideologists would not make a good leader whether they follow the ideology or not.
July 11, 2022
+1
July 11, 2022
+1
July 10, 2022
Long interview with J Hunt (the failed health Sec. and remoaner) just now on BBC 1 (he still seems to thing the Covid Vaccine are effective and safe alas not) with Javid (the man who forced these ineffective and often dangerous vaccines into the arms of many workers before he belatedly changes his mind. This even to young people never at any real risk and even people who have already had Covid. Insanity from Javid!
No questions on energy or the net zero (expensive energy) unscientific lunacy to Hunt – surely a vital topic in this leadership election? But not one the BBC seem to ever want to be questioned as it is such insanity.
July 10, 2022
I always watch politicians I like and Hollobone has come out early to bat for Braverman, only 25% of the Conservative MPs were remain it is no wonder we are where we are. The people standing in 2019 for the Conservatives constantly working against Boris and the manifesto they got elected on are responsible for their own coming demise they need to stop just blaming Boris.
July 10, 2022
Javid and Hunt were very briefly asked is they would stick to net zero both obviously rather scientifically ignorant men foolishly said they would.
Nine candidate in total and all nine will doubtless want to stick to this insane intermittent, unreliable, economic insanity. Totally pointless (even in just CO2 terms let alone climate) vastly damaging and totally unscientific lunacy.
July 10, 2022
To illustrate how daft the governments green agenda can be perhaps look at cycling and walking that the government seem so keen to push.
An electric car uses about four time the energy as an electric bike does (with no pedalling that is) especially at bike speeds. But a human cyclist engine only gets at best 25% of the extra food energy they eat to to the pedals the rest goes as wasted heat. But then the production of human food uses far more energy to produce than it contains & gives to the human. This varies by diet from perhaps 2x to 30x on a typical mixed UK diet say ~ 5 times on average. This extra energy on fertiliser, tractors, drying, feeding to animals, butchers, health and safely, fishing boat fuels, transport, packaging, freezing and chilling, cooking and food waste…
So an electric car (seating up to 5) uses per mile perhaps ~ 0.2KWH of energy (so say double that energy 0.4KWH of gas at the power station). A pedal bike uses 0.2KWH of food as fuel but ~ 5 times this sum in making this extra food is needed. So a car with five in can be 25 times more energy efficient than a pedal bike per person mile (a cyclist on the typical diet that is). But politician are rarely numerate, rational or scientific on energy use.
An electric bike is generally much more efficient than a food fuelled pedalled bike. Walking is even worse about 3-4 times worse than cycling. Cycling exercise in the gym worse still as you do not even get anywhere! So why are they pushing cycling and walking over cars?
July 10, 2022
Thanks John
July 10, 2022
Most people are worried about inflation, and that will turn increasingly to being scared and/or furious when the energy price hike hits.
I don’t think the deficit is on their radar: it’s a barely understood problem for “the government”, not for Joe Public.
So come the election they’ll want to see inflation coming down and their paypackets going further. Whoever can convince them about that will do well.
July 10, 2022
My electricity and gas is fixed until the end of August. I went to get a quote for the period August on the standard variable tariff yesterday. I can fix for two years at THREE times the current rate or take my chances on the standard variable rate at a mere £100 extra per month (£113 to £212). This is the cost of net zero so while the new PM will not be able to change my loss of £100 (changeable) per month immediately, he or she can reassure me by ditching net zero which is surely one of the big economic decisions to be taken.
July 10, 2022
MailOnline paints a picture of the Conservatives being at war over tax. But I take comfort from tax becoming a leadership race battleground. Many of the candidates seem to have recognised that we are now an over-taxed nation. (Johnson and Sunak hang your heads in shame.) I would suggest that they focus their attention on the taxes paid by businesses and by the aspirational working and middle-classes. The ‘poor’ now pay too little tax for them to care about how it is spent.
P.S. BTW, I can’t make an argument for the likes of me – a rich pensioner – to be the recipient of any tax cuts, so I won’t.
July 10, 2022
Hugely over taxed and most of this tax is spent appallingly inefficiently, wasted or even spent to do positive harm too. Surely few disagree with this and absurdly complex taxation too another tax on top and then the net zero expensive energy religion yet another form of tax on top.
A shame the party is not at war over the net zero lunacy and their blatant hypocrisy and gross scientific ignorance.
The solutions they push wind, solar, bikes, walking, public transport, EVs, hydrogen, heat pumps… do not even work or work to any significant degree – not even just in CO2 terms let alone in climate terms.
EVs almost always increase CO2 as they use so much energy to mine and manufacture the car and battery – far better to keep you old ICU car in CO2 terms! Plus we have no carbon free electricity to charge them with anyway.
July 10, 2022
Further to this, I’ve just been catching up with a lady who is working FIVE jobs. Tax-cuts for the likes of her rather than increased welfare payments!
July 10, 2022
We are already seeing some candidates Sunak, Javed come out for tax cuts, Tory values etc despite playing decisive roles in their shredding over the last years. Grant Shapps thinks he has it in him, is he mad? Jeremy ‘sly boots’ Hunt who would crumble to the EU and was weak at Health.
Egotistic, lack of self awareness, full of hubris, and so it goes on. I don’t want to be bribed with tax cuts which is what many are doing. I want competent, prudent joined up thinking that will stop us lurching from crisis to failure and back again.
Let’s get the blob truly in its box, honest and pragmatic on Net Zero, take on the anti democrats and make Brexit work, stop rewarding/over looking failure with sideways jobs, knighthoods, ennobled etc, stop crumbling to the unions. In fact listen to white van men and women who frankly detest/have no trust in politicians and much of the public sector.
And, I know I am being ridiculous but i want promises kept.
July 10, 2022
Sir John, does your ‘back investment in food capacity’ extend to keeping farmland used for producing food? Or can we in Wokingham borough look forward to another 15% population increase over the next ten years, as we had over the last, and another tsunami of concrete over our fields so as to house them?
July 10, 2022
Went for a walk yesterday afternoon on one of my familiar countryside routes and was struck at the number of previously arable fields now overgrown, so rewilding is very much here. I can’t see any of the Tory leadership candidates (other than maybe Steve Baker) tackling the absurdity of this policy and refuting statements from ‘Rewilding Britain’, a charity it seems, stating that rewilding ‘aims to tackle the climate emergency and extinction crisis, reconnect people with the natural world and help communities thrive’. What a load of hyperbolic tosh which, at one time many years ago, any Conservative leadership candidate would have rightly mocked. I can’t see any evidence of a sensible rowing back on such inane policy positions from the once Conservative party.
July 11, 2022
Here in Cumbria the farmers are planting trees on what is good arable land due to the huge subsidies for doing so from the government. This is madness , words fail me
July 11, 2022
Other countryside walks will become getting lost in rabbit-warren part constructed housing estates, or coming across community notices refusing proposed development.
July 10, 2022
Talking of food production… something that’s not being shown much in the MSM, Italy, Germany and The Netherlands’ farmer are out on the streets protesting. Why? According to a politician from the Netherlands, farmers have been told to cut their farming by half, and expect to farm differently in the future. She said it is to go to global food supply method of how food is produced…and to encourage less national farming, to reduce nitrate emissions. Farmers are rightly furious. Neil Oliver, GB News last night.
July 10, 2022
Damaging our economy is an action an enemy would take. Our nation should prevent the dangers of enmity and destruction.
Only a sinister or daft political party would elect such people to lead them in Govt.
Surely the population of party members are not so gullible to follow them into the abyss; or are they?
July 10, 2022
I think as long as energy prices remain high inflation will not fall away quickly. Inflation will be with us for a lot longer.
July 10, 2022
Sunak should be the last person to be trusted as PM.
He spends recklessly and being married to a billionaire has no idea how the rest live.
His promotional video was crass and I hope he is quickly removed back to GS.
Only Suella Braverman would I trust with Brexit.
July 10, 2022
As I type windmills are producing 1.1gw. Will the next PM stop this appalling waste of taxpayers money.
July 10, 2022
Sir JR. The economic mess you describe has been overseen by Rishi Sunak, who currently is favourite to take over as PM. Madness……………..
July 10, 2022
It would be a mistake Sunak will not be remotely popular with the average voter. He has been a dreadful tax, borrow, inflate and piss down the drain chancellor, a many £1million tax avoider (legal though it doubtless was), a lock down enthusiast, a manifesto ratterm a green crap pusher… He will not be seen as a man of the people!
July 10, 2022
And we now see the filthy tactics, Zahawi’s tax affairs just happened to be leaked although he is not under suspicion and has complied with the ministerial code.
What a heap of dung these people are.
July 10, 2022
Indeed HMRC just do random tax inquiry fishing expeditions all the time. The tax code is so absurdly complex and unclear not easy to get it right even if you try your best. Most people working at HMRC do not understand it either. This complexity is yet another tax on top of the huge levels of taxes in time & large compliance costs.
We cannot all work for the government, in compliance or law or spend out time doing tax return and inquiries – some people have to do useful things like build houses, unblock drains, frack for gas, grow food, deliver things… just occasionally.
July 10, 2022
There is no obvious leader among those who have ”thrown their hat into the ring” so far. However there are three that should be written off straight away, namely Sunak and Javid who have both succumbed and fallen under the spell of the EU aligned Treasury and the OBR and the third is Jeremy Hunt who will make sure we get no benefit from Brexit. He could even try to get us back as a member of the EU which would bring this country to its knees.
July 10, 2022
I agree. The electorate will not return to voting Conservative if Sunak, Javid, or Hunt become PM. MPs need to choose wisely. No matter what the media reports I’ve not spoken with anyone who is in favour of reversing Brexit. If anything people want a tougher leader who puts the interests of the British people first. It’s why you got such a huge majority but unfortunately, Johnson has failed miserably to capitalise on it.
July 10, 2022
Not one of the candidates is worthy of the job.
What would an HR department do in that situation? Readvertise later? Maybe change the job specs, to read ‘Scope for independent decision-making – not bound to the wishes of the WEF and corporate media’?
July 11, 2022
HR ‘previous applicants should not re-apply’.
July 10, 2022
Sunak is the strong favourite – this would be a big mistake!
July 10, 2022
What a legacy, and the culprits of all of this incompetence want us to think they will be better next time.
If those now seeking the top job were so sure the policies were wrong, why did they not resign at the time ?
Did Boris simply ignore his his cabinet ?
July 10, 2022
+1
If you mean the plague manifesto …I reckon that was our first taste ( or noticeable one) of globalism. Lockstep with all the treaties govts have embroiled us in…without our knowledge or say so.
As to the future…it looks very grim. The politicians have really landed us in it.
Apparently the green agenda/agenda 21/30 and all the rest of the cr*p REALLY has not one care about the survival of the human race. The planet comes first …and I expect the elite and their families!
Goodness knows what the useful idiots will think when they realise they are expendable!
July 10, 2022
Vanishing country
Vanishing food
Vanishing money
Vanishing democracy
And vanishing comments
July 10, 2022
Kemi Badenoch would be an interesting candidate.
July 11, 2022
in what regard?
July 10, 2022
Yes to all of that, but until you are chancellor I see no prospect of it happening.
July 10, 2022
Given that most of the candidates were in the cabinet that oversaw the economic and tax mess we find ourselves in Sir John and none of them resigned over the direction taken, I think you will not be able to back any of them.
ALL the leadership candidates must aim for the support of those who would vote for them, focus groups on the general population is no way to govern as people are dishonest when asked touchy feely questions. There is a large swathe of the electorate who would remove their eyes with a hot spoon before voting Conservative, do not try to appease them. concentrate on those who would or might vote for them.
I am at present a spoiled paper, much needs to change to convince me otherwise.
July 10, 2022
I’m usually suspicious of politicians opting for growth to address economic problems. It’s a plan to avoid cost reduction and efficiency in the public sector.
However, given where the UK is now, there is great scope to replace imports in food and manufactured goods with product from the UK.
The problem is the government’s hostility to UK manufacturing, with higher taxes, whilst imports enjoy no such constriction.
July 10, 2022
All I ask is for a patriotic Brexiter PM, with the intelligence and common sense to recognise the difference between good and bad advice, and work out the long term consequences of EVERY action.
Honesty and integrity and putting the UK first would be a very welcome change from the current incumbent. Good luck in finding one who doesn’t follow the WEF/WHO unelected wannabe dictators.
July 10, 2022
This leadership election will either make or break the Tory party.
Perhaps now is the time for the real Conservatives to break away from the socialist majority in their party, to attract candidates that see no difference currently between labour and Tory.
It is interesting that Sunak is considered to be a leading candidate to replace Boris, when he has done so badly as Chancellor – suggesting, or even perhaps proving, how deep federalism has penetrated this once most innovative party.
This government has failed because it was influenced by global forces and because it did not adhere to lessons learned in the past. It seems that every useful experience gained in the last 100 years of managing an economy or the health system or scientific endeavours was not just ignored – concepts were over-written, with policies made up afresh that had no basis in science or life.
Where this government has taken us is into a new chaotic and unrewarding existence for the majority of us. We deserve so much better!
July 10, 2022
I see the London Mayor now wants yet another huge expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone which surrounds London, this time encompassing the whole of the GLA which runs into Berkshire, Kent, Essex and Surrey.
Consultation ends on 29th July 2022 for Implementation planned for August 2023.
The new area will drag in Millions of more people who live and or work on the outskirts of London.
Another £12.50 a day added to the cost of living for those affected, just wait until the emission limits are eventually revised !
July 10, 2022
A good policy for government, if only the media and voters would accept people in our age group in government, you might have a chance to implement it !
You raise an interesting point : Had the UK continued to produce as much gas and oil as the North sea could provide and thus reduced imported energy, how much extra tax would have been raised and over what period ?
This might well dwarf the amount of extra tax Sunak and his predecessors have raised from voters and is the huge price we have had to pay for the green policies that have been pursued by recent governments and have been criticised by opposition parties as not being extreme enough.
July 10, 2022
This auction of tax cuts isn’t credible. We also need a serious attempt to rein in spending. The social care levy to prop up middle class inheritance needs to go immediately, likewise HS2. We need to go back to the pre-pandemic rules on benefits – look for work if you’re of working age etc. let’s take 100,000 heads out of the civil service – a performance based cut would be much better than a hiring freeze. Public sector pensions, their level and their immunity from inflation are an insult to the 80% of people who work in the private sector and fund them. There must surely be innumerable quangos either doing nothing useful or in many cases actual harm. At least suspend the green subsidies, although unfortunately a lot of these are contractual now. Perhaps crowd source ideas for cutting public sector costs as Jacob Rees Mogg is doing for ideas for repeal of EU laws and regs.
I’m all in favour of tax cuts but Sunak is correct that the maintenance of confidence is key. Boris Johnson’s socialist tax and spend has been very damaging.
July 10, 2022
We need high taxes because our government spending is out of control (with cabinet ministers support) billions for HS2, billions for foreign nuclear weapons, billions to the EU & UN, billions to accommodate illegal immigration, billions in subsidy to foreign wind-turbines, billions in foreign aid, and trillions for net-zero…the list goes on
July 11, 2022
Peru doesn’t spend a single dollar on anything mentioned above….so why does the UK
July 10, 2022
History will be kind to Boris Johnson. He has changed European history, and few Prime Ministers can claim to have done that. For my part, by decisively taking us out of the EU, he has changed history for the better. He made the right calls on the pandemic and vaccines, in particular, and, of course, the ongoing situation in Ukraine. Is there any doubt that he has shamed the EU and Germany in particular to do more to help Ukraine than they would otherwise have done ? Ditto Biden.
However, Boris has a flawed personality, but there are few leaders who aren’t, in one way or another.
In Johnson’s case, his lack of organisation and attention to detail has been his downfall.
By allowing others like Cummins too much rope and not looking closely enough at appointments, (Pincher), have led to his problems. He has then compounded the problems by ducking and diving when a more honest response would have done a lot less damage.
In other countries around the world, these failings would not raise a second glance, but in the UK and the US, the media demands far too much of our politicians. It’s no wonder that excellent potential candidates like Ben Wallace choose not to put their hat in the ring and that’s our loss.
July 11, 2022
Johnson is a warhawk. He has been a major player in the NATO escalation that led to war in Ukraine, and has incited Zelensky to continue with the pointless slaughter of so many brave Ukrainians, rather than accept a negotiated outcome. All for no benefit either to Ukraine or to us in Britain. For these things alone the history books should condemn him as a reckless warmongering failure.
July 11, 2022
Clearly you would have been telling the Poles, the Czechs and the French the same thing in 1939.
That would inevitably have led to the Nazification of the the whole of Europe, the Germans crossing the channel and as a result, the EU, which you presumably support, would never have existed. There would still have been a United States of Europe but of a rather more sinister type run from Berlin rather than Brussels.
Appeasement never works, it only encourages the beligerent regime to go further and faster. Putin has to be stopped.
July 11, 2022
History will consign and liken Johnson to ‘a comedy of errors’. Except it doesn’t all end well.
July 10, 2022
Get a grip on running the country and give incentives for everyone to work -basic stuff SJ.
We have celebrated the Queen 75th Jubilee and her birthday and been the first to come to defend Ukraine, Covid vaccine etc and nearly Brexit yet we wallow in unnecessary political paralysis.
We need immediate halt to tax increases, ditch green and woke nonsense and get real before the recession hits us from the EU and USA and a bitter economic winter.
Few MPs have an economic brain or economic background unlike Sir John whose advice is crucial now to progress. None of cabinet ministers are ideal and will play safe. Only Suella seems to be prepared to step up to the plate like Margaret Thatcher Mk 2 and Sir John could advise her ?
July 10, 2022
As an outsider- I am NOT a Conservative or conservative- my observations on the candidates are:
Sunak – seems like a Wally to me, we need a leader
Javid – did hopelessly last time. Okay in the cabinet. Not PM material.
Hunt – seems to have integrity. Where’s the vision and backbone?
Braverman – who?
Zahawi – maybe. Would it be odd to have someone born abroad as PM? Mind you, we’ve just had a Yank.
Shapps – delusions of competence
Truss – no profile
Badenoch – who?
Tughendhat – who?
Mordaunt- maybe
Of course democracy is in short supply. Tory MPs will make sure anyone favoured by the members does not make it to the last two. The initial stages of the selection process are rancid and corrupt. Support is gained by promising jobs – it has nothing to do with who an MP thinks is the best candidate for PM.
July 10, 2022
£90 billions lower
July 10, 2022
My question to all applicants to the top job is:
The UK doesn‘t need another spendthrift, it needs someone who can help the UK to generate a lot more money and keeping it within the UK and not sloshing it out to Europe. By not over-taxing the risk taking entrepreneurs and top ranking private sector sales people, investors, creators and manufacturers supplying the private sector, in this country and around the World to spend on overly generous hidden packages behind the public sector gross income grade 1 basic salaries when they‘re discussed. Is there anyone in the current proposed people than can sell and promote and not just want to spend and control other peoples spending?
July 10, 2022
Your words today are proof you could give us an election-winning budget.
Why instead will we have to suffer less pleasant policies and measures than you offer as we watch the Sunak Slump take hold? That is a question Boris would have done well to have asked himself before it was all far too late.
July 10, 2022
None of the cabinet contenders appears to have resigned or even stood up to these high tax policies.
July 10, 2022
…and therein lies the problem…none can be trusted, if Boris was still in post they’d have gladly accepted the policy of higher taxation
July 10, 2022
There are 5 “natural” systems that must be nurtured and kept in balance for civilisation to flourish. (1) Life (2) Markets (3) Government (4) Justice. All 4 must allies natural laws at a small scale to calibrate those systems. However central to them all is (5) Consciousness.
Only Consciousness has the ability to decide on the price, decide on the vote, decide on guilt, decide on life choices.
Each of these 5 systems need to be kept in balance. This means transparency, zero censorship, light touch control.
Any situation that overly focuses on one system or tries to manage the systems top down ALWAYS fails.
July 11, 2022
Javelin :
If a country has a legislature where all parties and a majority of members all.agree of the big issues then you know democracy has died and the country will become moribund, then unstable and eventually collapse.
July 10, 2022
How much inflation is directly attributable to our refusing to purchase from Russia in order to bring Russia to its knees? Perhaps we should look at our own semi-recumbent position, turbo-charged by the Climate Change Act and start acting in our own national interest? There is an opportunity here for the Tories having got rid of the economically illiterate warmonger Johnson to manage our finances responsibly by optimising home food production and not giving away our military capability for a proxy war with Russia initiated by the US Sate Dept, currently supervised by a President who reads stage instructions aloud off his prompt cards, but who have they got? Following the idiosyncratic appointments of Johnson, its hard for an outsider to know.
July 10, 2022
Hello all
May I add to your list of taxes those of dividends. The rate seems to be going up and up. Double taxation as corporation tax has already been paid sometimes at very high rates.
A real disincentive for uk citizens to invest in productive industries rather than housing.
July 10, 2022
I am amazed that amnesia seems to have set in and the huge elephant in the room is being ignored. For over two years we were plunged into a police state with draconian restrictions on our liberty. Children and young people suffered the worst. Mental health deteriorated, the NHS was destroyed, the economy was destroyed, livelihoods were destroyed. Vaccine mandates were introduced along with a no jab no job policy. The list goes on and on …..
Boris has lost his job but no one mentions the elephant. The candidates coming forward in the leadership campaign don’t mention the elephant, yet they were all complicit in voting for these measures. I want to know what plans they have for us in the future 🤷🏼♀️
July 10, 2022
I find the early days of your leadership election odd.
Those who voted and cheered the last few budgets now tell us it was all wrong and there is a huge pile of gold in the Treasury available for distribution to their chums. No wonder Mr Lynch of the RMT is asking for a pay rise for his members.
July 10, 2022
Our cabinet ministers are indeed a fickle bunch
July 10, 2022
We have no borders and no country.
July 10, 2022
Watching the Wimbledon final.Novak is doing well and concentating Kyrigios is having tantrums and doing slightly less well,but making a spectacle of himself.Yesterday we saw a lovely Russian born girl win the ladies Venus Rose trophy.What a lovely girl ,calm and only using her ability rather than her mouth to win.Good social manners make the difference.They tell us about self control respect for others views and other people.
July 10, 2022
I will not be voting for any person or party that believes in re-joining the EU, open borders and Net Zero. Unfortunately this means all Parliamentary parties and most MPs.
Net Zero is an attack on the West as evidenced by the fact that its militant activists are unconcerned by China and India burning 5.6 billion tons of coal each year. The activists having caused a shortage of fossil fuel and consequently caused prices to rocket up now falsely claim that the way forward is to use useless wind turbines and expensive electrification with almost no nuclear capacity.
Guess what, our power will be intermittent and expensive and since our wind turbines, solar panels, the raw materials for batteries and motors/generators will be controlled by China we will have zero energy security. This is the real meaning of net zero.
Crazy.
July 11, 2022
net zero = zero control of anything.
levelling up = lowering economic success to match the poorest areas.
controlling immigration = providing more boats to ensure safe passage across the Channel.
following the science = presenting wild SAGE ever changing forecasts as facts.
July 10, 2022
There is a way to reconcile the Green Luddites who want to move to a lower CO2 regime, those who want to garner more tax from UK business and those who want to lower the cost of living.
Cancel HS2. Cancel EPRs like Sizewell C. Cancel subsidies for renewable energy. Order the first tranche of SMRs from Rolls Royce.
Then frack, you fools. An economy powered by natural gas is a halfway to the hydrogen economy.
JF
July 10, 2022
+1
July 10, 2022
“Labour would be worse” no longer cuts it.
An 80 seat majority. How did it come to this ?
July 10, 2022
I wonder how many MPs know that printing money leads to inflation. I don’t see this thought in the media very often
July 10, 2022
It is easy enough for these leadership candidates to make promises about lowering taxes, as indeed Sunak claimed to want to do before meeting the Treasury mandarins.
So before accepting any of these people at face value before they meet the Treasury mandarins with their scare stories, the relevant question to ask is when, if ever have you on major issues overruled the overwhelming advice of your professional advisers and gone ahead with your policies anyhow directly contrary to their advice?
July 10, 2022
I remember reading the 2019 manifesto pledge that Boris
‘’ We will not raise the rate of income tax, VAT or National Insurance.’’
Why should we believe any tax statement from the candidates
July 10, 2022
Under “Getting the deficit down” there is hardly any mention of public expenditure cuts. Fiscal prudence dictates that reducing total taxation by £20 billion and reducing total public expenditure by £100 is about the right mix. There are other ways of reducing annual borrowing by £80 billion and Rishi Sunak appears to favour some increase in tax and a much smaller reduction in public expenditure. That is not too different from what Labour would do if it came to power. Why should someone like me who wants a small State vote for that?
You can forget about economic growth until the monetary measures to reduce inflation have had their effect – towards the end of next year.
There is one big reason for a drastic cut in public expenditure. The only way economic growth will come about is if the private sector has capital available for innovation investment. That can’t happen if the State is hogging all the resources. Throwing money at a health service that is free at the point of consumption and has no demand management and at loss making railways (particularly HS2 and Network Rail) is just plain dumb; the expenditure will not generate revenue. Railways are an industry with its own separate infrastructure and they should be making money to finance health and welfare expenditure and should not be a basket case.
Why tax the poor in order to supply them with increased benefits, buggering up entire markets in the process?
That requires more Civil Service employment than is necessary. Why is Jacob Rees Mogg urging Civil Servants to “return to work” when there aren’t enough desks for everyone? When I worked, I would gladly have accepted a 10% reduction in salary in order to avoid commuting to London, with expensive season tickets and an hour and three quarters travel time each way each day.
So which of the candidates for the Tory leadership most fits my wishes? Richard Tice, that’s who.
July 10, 2022
I do hope that your inability to moderate postings today is indicative of either (a) you are having a fine weekend, enjoying the sun or (b) you are being sounded out for a meaningful part in someone’s leadership campaign.
July 10, 2022
Day 1 – Boris is PM and all the Cabinet support increase in taxes
Day 2 – Boris is caretaker PM and all the Cabinet want to decrease taxes
Our Cabinet Ministers are pathetic, weak with no integrity….none of them should be trusted in high office again
July 11, 2022
All shown to be self-interested chameleons.
July 10, 2022
I would just like to ask that all those who deride the scientific evidence for climate change as something that should not be supported, including Sir John, please include evidence based arguments as to why we should do nothing to change what is currently occurring in the Earths climate. Given there is a large amount of evidence (with proof) saying that things will get worse globally and within the UK if we do nothing you should justify your arguments. Please provide validated proof and proper arguments (beyond the fact that you feel it is incorrect) that you, and not the majority of scientific evidence, is wrong. Or stop claiming we should not do a thing about climate change because it will cost money. I would also say that certain well held beliefs about fiscal policy (e.g. small government and low taxes is the best answer to everything) have been shown statistically to lead to overall higher deficits which in the end, penalize us all, especially the poor. If you think about it, making sure everyone can have a decent life means a certain level of money which has to come from somewhere, either by employment or support but the poor remain poor. Why? The same trope has been used since Victorian times when a large proportion of the urban population lived in slums while the rich got richer and are we any different? Increase use of food banks, everyone tightening belts but the government supplies a small amount of help when in other countries more help is provided. What makes us ‘special’ so market forces will provide a solution (maybe in 10 to 20 years and maybe never), So what has really changed. Studies in the modern US and UK indicate that such low tax, small government policies tend to help the rich rather than the poor and and surely good government should be focused on making everyone better off. Think of all the recent disclosures of the politicians lining their own pockets rather than helping the people they are supposed to help. So please be clear (with evidence) of what you think and please do not just parrot certain tropes and incorrect interpretation of science (for which there is plenty of validated evidence).
July 11, 2022
The evidence is that the mainculprits are China, India, Russia etc who show no signs of change, You wish to see UK economy trashed and the people forced into accepting the crashing standard of living when UK is between 0.5% and 1% of the problem.
July 11, 2022
The relative position of the sun drives more climate than activity on the planet. Net zero is a get rich scheme for those that espouse it.
Less pollution – yes, net zero – wasteful fantasy
July 11, 2022
J
Have a look at extinction clock.org.
July 11, 2022
J :
There is no CAGW as evidenced by the fact that there is no anthropological explanation for the warming which 10,000 years ago ended the last ice and for the times since when the temperature has been 2 or even ,3 degrees higher than currently. Long-term scientific data shows no correlation between CO2 levels and temperature.
July 11, 2022
Johnson wanted to go into the next two elections with a pledge to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2030. There were no plans, as far as I know, to create a national charging infrastructure for electic cars, or to provide the means to generate the necessary electricity. The policy represents electoral suicide and will be particularly unpopular in the Red Wall seats. I’d like to know which of the leadership candidates will ditch it together with the rest of the Net Zero measures, which seem designed to damage Britain while making a negligible contribution to reducing CO2. Any candidate who wants to continue with the banning of petrol and diesel cars shouldn’t even be considered. I hope that the winning candidate will also stop trying to force smart meters and heat pumps onto us.
July 11, 2022
Correct, net zero is flawed and outsourcing net zero is fundamentally flawed.
Our contribution to the world’s carbon production is minimal (and falling) – we are not the ones who need to change. The Chinese and Indians (plus other BRICS) have access to the same data that we do. Their pressure groups are not hamstringing them.
July 11, 2022
Whoever the Conservatives elect as their next leader will face the challenge of the competing tensions of the electoral coalition from 2019, which is that Red Wall voters typically want more public spending (Red Wall areas are net recipients of tax revenue) whereas Blue Wall voters often object to being asked to pay more tax to fund that spending, Blue Wall areas being net contributors of tax revenue. Keeping both parts of that coalition happy can only be done with more borrowing.
Whoever it ends up being, it sounds like they will have different policies to the ones which were in the 2019 manifesto, and so should put those to the country so at least those voters who live somewhere where their vote means something will be able to pass judgement (even if the rest of us can’t thanks to FPTP). After all, that was what the Conservative party argued for after Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair.
July 13, 2022
Some economists seem to miss the real drag on growth that is the UK trade deficit and balance of payments deficit. It has never been addressed but the new chancellor must do so.