The independence of the Bank of England is widely asserted and almost universally applauded. Let me begin before I am condemned for views I doĀ not hold, by sayingĀ I do support the Bank of England continuing to have the important independent power to fix and change short term interest rates by setting an official influential Base rate. The wider problem is money policy (anti inflation policy) is aboutĀ much more than just fixing the short term official rate. In most of the other areas that matter the Bank is not independent.
The obvious point which no-one else ever seems to make in the debate concerns the main thrust of money policy since 2008. The decisions to create a lot of money to buy up government bonds have always been joint between Chancellor and Bank. This was set up by the Labour government and continued under the Coalition and Conservative governments. The Treasury not only agrees and signs off the policy but also offers a full guarantee to the Bank against losses on the bonds bought. Presumably Chancellors as well as Governors have therefore taken this task seriously, as the Treasury runs the risks. When interest rates are around zero money policy is driven by decisions on how much to print and how many bonds to buy. Why did the Bank do so much for so long last year?Ā Why didn’t they have target interest rate levels for longer term borrowings to guide their interventions? Why didn’t they monitor and comment on the explosion of money growth their bond buying generated?
These decisions have had a big impact in setting longer term interest rates at artificially low levels, which in turn leads to lower borrowing costs for property, business and other users. This has fuelled asset price inflation for more than a decade until this year when the underlying bond buying stopped.Ā The Bank did not worry about asset inflation.
It is also the case that Gordon Brown when he wrongly said he was making the Bank of England independent took away crucial powers it used to have to regulate the commercial banks. TheĀ main UK clearing banks determine many of the details of how much credit is advanced, to whom. They decide how many loans to make. Regulation of these activities including warning them about running too much individual balance sheet risk rests with a different Regulator. Pre Gordon Brown the Bank directly and daily influenced clearing bank balance sheets and lending positions.
In practice the independent Central Bank, 100% owned by the state, answers directly to Parliament. The Treasury Committee makes the Governor attend and defend his actions on a regular basis. ParliamentĀ changed the legislative controls and requirements on the Bank when Labour took over and when the Coalition took over. Labour changed the inflation target when in office. I think it is right that the Bank should be held accountable for its actions through Parliamentary scrutiny and through media questioning of policy and results. There needs to be more consideration of why inflation is so far above target, and more analyses of past recessions when Bank tightness was part of the problem.
It remains a mystery how the Monetary Policy Committee thinks it can control inflation without monitoring and commenting on the amount of money inĀ circulation or the speed at which it is used from bank accounts. Real money supply is now contracting. Money policy has lurched from far too loose to tight. I agree with the Bank who now forecast inflation will tumble next year. There is no need for them to be selling bonds at big losses to make things worse.
September 27, 2022
Good Afternoon,
And yet your government cotinues to repeat the nonsence lie that the indepeendence of the BoE is sacrosanct, Why continue this nonsense; makes you look stupid.
Well, the BoE has again sat on it’s hands and done nothing, no surprise there. BUT, the markets have told you what to do, Gilts are now yielding over 4%, so, de facto, the borrowing rate has been increased. The BoE looks like a spectator sitting in the cheap seats without a view of the game.
If the treasury gave the BoE prior notice of the chancellors ‘budget’ (most of which I agree, but he missed out VAT) and BoE didn’t have a plan to react immediately, then there needs to be a change at the Bank.
The Tory government right now looks like a bunch of teenagers playing the slots at Vegas. Your biggest risk is the loss of confidence — GET A GRIP!
September 27, 2022
And yet 10 year US Treasuries are over 3.6% and 2 year US Treasuries over 4.26% – and both have been higher recently. That’s the main global reserve currency, so all these pundits who are banging on about Gilts need to get this into context. The people who make stuff (or get it out of the ground) are getting tired of Western FIAT currencies (and the Governments that keep printing them). The US has been printing dollars for far too long and in the process exporting its inflation.
Sterling is still the 3rd global currency, behind the Euro and US Dollar. They’ve come for the Pound and before too long they will come for the Euro too. I suspect the ECB is going to have a bigger problem than us when that happens – as it will be abundantly clear that the EU is not a set of fiscally united states when the brown stuff finally hits the fan.
September 27, 2022
Good morning Sir John
Yes independant is the way it should be. The However, there is a trend that ones own personal political views seems to surface before the job in hand. So independant in tandem with fit for purpose. is needed to be highlighted. The BoE is working for the whole of the UK all its citizens not some foreign inspired trend.
The irrisponsible āLarry Summersā is in the Telegraph today joining in with a rant about the non-conformative of the UK administration.
It is fuel to the fire that there is an idea of World Govenment eminating from the WEF and is alive and well. Its not the UK doing what is right for the UK that is the problem, it is that in doing so it doesnāt permit the talking heads to dictate from afar on things that done affect them.
A World of large cooperates dictating world order is just them wishing to be competition free. If the UK frees its people, that rocks the boat for the new left of big business.
September 27, 2022
Thank you Sir John, very informative.
Why was responsibility for monitoring the clearing banks lending activities handed over to what was effectively a Quango? Was it to allow Government to have influence over the regulators decisions?
As the financial collapse around 2008 and the subsequent use of taxpayers money to bail out the failures shows that the system put in place was ineffective, what measures are now used and how confident are you that such a scenario is unlikely to be repeated?
September 27, 2022
Dear None, The split Is non quite as bad as Sir John implied. Prudential regulation was brought back into the Bank in 2013, for the reasons you give. Banks’ treatment of customers is still with the separate Financial Conduct Authority but Sam Wood, the relevant Deputy Governor, also sits on the FCA board, which in turn answers to the Treasury, so we can have joined-up action if the will is there.
Reply Yes, some improvements were made after the crash which revealed the dangers of the split in regulatory responsibilities. It is still not as direct as the daily contacts between Bank and clearing banks in the old regime with the B of E having a close understanding of bank book positions and cash needs.
September 27, 2022
It was done so that these people would have overall oversight and control over financial services.
If our kind host allows
https://ec.europa.eu/info/departments/financial-stability-financial-services-and-capital-markets-union_en
September 27, 2022
Thank you for this. The scrutiny is very long overdue.
September 27, 2022
You are exactly right on this in my opinion. Not helped by the fact that they keep employing dopes like Carney and Bailey. The former also full of climate alarmist drivel and the latter (while heading up the FCA) gave us 40% interest rate overdrafts for all regardless of credit risk. What sort of sensible banker would do that? Effectively abolish overdrafts for low risk borrowers. Totally moronic.
The current betting odds very depressing imply just a 23% chance of an overall Tory Majority at the next election. 10/3 is quite good odds in my view for a bet. I still think Truss will win. This as surely no one sensible wants Labour/SNP/LibDim/Plaid/Green coalition do they? A coalition/no overs all majority being the favourite outcome but that would almost certainly be a Starmer/Sturgeon one.
To win they just need to ditch net zero (or at least put it on a permanent hold) deal the huge illegal & low skilled immigration, have a bonfire or red tape, cut out the vast government waste, stop the NHS killing so many people with delays and incompetence and cut (and simplify taxes).
September 27, 2022
So Keir Starmer will pledge to deliver a new era of economic growth and permanently lower energy bills by turning the UK into an independent green āsuperpowerā before 2030, through a massive expansion of wind and solar energy.
Governments do so love to waste taxpayer’s money. For one think energy prices in the UK are far too high to effectively compete in this industry further it is largely a crony industry not of farming wind or sunshine but of farming grants subsidies. Plus, we have no cost effective and efficient solutions to their intermittency. Does he realise how much fossil fuel energy goes into making a wind farm or an electric car? How we the UK compete in these industries with energy at three times the price or many other countries? This due to the deluded subsidised renewables religion.
September 27, 2022
Dear Lifelogic, the “new” Labour policy is actually just a rehash of the disastrous 2003 Energy White Paper, one of the causes of our current mess. Labour would inherit one new nuclear station, due to come on stream in 2027 but that is largely a replacement rather than a net additon to nuclear capacity. I’m guessing that the vast extra expansion of hated on-shore wind would not be in Primrose Hill, Hampstead Heath or Richmond Park but out where the peasants live.
September 27, 2022
Bottom line – the Chancellor is betting that by cutting taxes, by 45 billion and then borrow to make up, he wagers it will boost economic growth but as there is too much uncertainty about and history shows that where there is uncertainty in the economy and also in the markets, both global and domestic, people and business will sit tight. What the Chancellir is at is a huge gamble that the banks or anyone else cannot put right if the whole thing crumbles and that is the bottom line.
Where this crazy thinking came from I can only imagine but in an economy already seriously damaged by brexit and then the covid crisis to embark on such a course of action is reckless in the extreme – and here we have the cheerleaders egging it on. I just wonder what the King will have to say to Truss on her next visit to the Palace- I would love to be a fly on the wall.
September 27, 2022
The King will probably say “Liz please do not ditch that net zero con trick (for the plebs anyway). The Crown Estate make millions from this wind/grant farming scam. Clearly it will not bother us directly with our private jets, Astons, Range Rovers, heated palaces, pools and helicopters. If a few pensioners die early from being unable to afford to heat their homes, it surely saves on pensions and help the housing shortage. Too many damn people all over the place anyway! Do you know everyone seemed to fall for that “Only 96 months to save the world guff” (even though the months passed years ago). They even fall for my Aston running of waste cheese and wine waste to save the world. Apparently you know, it wastes loads more energy this way but is good PR ha, ha, ha – but the plebs still fall for it as any real science education in the UK is so badly lacking. Oh and do keep up with quack & alternative medicine and homeopathy etc. on the NHS at tax-payers expense. Clearly, they do not really work but are often cheaper than the operations and treatments they actually need…”
September 27, 2022
The economy has been in decline for the last 30 years under various socialist governments. We have been waiting for a long time for some proper conservative policies. Hopefully Truss is it. Nothing to do with Brexit by the way.
September 27, 2022
The crazy thinking is to announce more spending (to guarantee the energy companies’ profits) on top of an income tax cut.
I applaud cutting taxes, but the government need to have a plan on how they will reduce spending to compensate, and so far they only want to spend more, confirming the view the government has lost control of the country’s finances.
September 27, 2022
The bank is working against the government as it is staffed with big tax and spend members.
It should have been increasing interest rates last year so will now be forced to overcompencate.
Bailey should be sacked for the mayhem he’s causing.
September 27, 2022
The Chancellor in his ābudgetā said āfor the tax system to favour growth Mr Speaker, it needs to be much simpler. I am hugely grateful to the OTS for everything they have achieved since 2010 but instead of a single armās length body which is separate from the Treasury and HMRC we need to embed tax simplification into the heart of Government. That is why Mr Speaker I have decided to wind down the OTSā¦ā
So what did they achieve exactly. In their 12 years the tax complexity as virtually doubled with vast increases in both tax levels and compliance costs. I assume they still got performance bonuses and will now get nice pay offs.
September 27, 2022
Good afternoon.
Back in the day the Chancellor of the Exchequer had a full range of powers to manage the economy. Today they are divided and, as I mentioned yesterday to someone, we now have a push-me-pull-you set up. On the one hand we have a BoE trying to control inflation by creating a recession and, a government looking at electoral oblivion in just over a years time and, trying to do the opposite.
Like so many of New Labour’s so called reforms it has proven to be a disaster. But what have the Conservatives been doing for these last the last decade and a bit ? Nothing !
Again I say, you need to start making ‘strategic’ cuts like the ones I mentioned before. You keep doing the same things over and over. And over and over they fail.
September 27, 2022
I see its taken Nigel Farage tweet today to say exactly what every single backbench MP should be saying.
Why is the bloomin obvious so hard to figure out?
September 27, 2022
Yet again the motorways have reduced speed limits with the gantries proudly proclaiming the reason for the lower limits was āto reduce air pollutionā, somehow I donāt think the promises you got from the whips have held John. Is this a conscious decision of the new cabinet? Or are the public sector pushing the limits while the politicians are busy on other stuff?
September 27, 2022
Why did they….why didn’t they…..why didn’t they? Why do smokers keep smoking despite knowing the dangers? Why do overweight people keep overeating? It’s called addiction and they think it’s OK until it isn’t.
September 27, 2022
I see no reason why the central bank should be independent, they have proved themselves incapable of meeting the single target they have been given with no consequences at all – might as well let the politicians set interest rates as always used to be done.
September 27, 2022
Virtuous though independence (as defined) may be (for its own sake or some certain purpose?), it has not actually been shown to have delivered a better outcome so why is it so cherished?
As for “There needs to be more consideration of why inflation is so far above target…”, are you not wholly persuaded by the “Ukraine innit” rejoinder then? No-one is, surely, and it shows those using that excuse in a very bad light. Still, so long as they are independent….!
September 27, 2022
“Make Smoke And Retire”
September 27, 2022
No doubt true but seems to be ādancing on a pin headā
I would have thought the bigger picture was far more important where you have totally lost control of the narrative.
September 27, 2022
Hello Sir John,
As always you write with common sense & obvious knowledge. What a scandal that the previous PM made no use of your skills. Unlike the media & opinion formers who talk down the UK consistently I am encouraged by the mini-budget & the possibility that we may finally have a conservative government. But you are in a position to influence the government which I am not. So would you please tell the PM & Chancellor that their no 1 problem is the cost of government? For years the government has spent without any regard for its income. To succeed they need to be more aggressive with their tax cuts & supply-side reforms & to do that they must dramatically reduce the cost of government. There needs to be a serious cut in the numbers of Civil Servants, whose salaries & pensions are a substantial cost, by at least 50% & possibly even more. All Quangos need at least a 50% cut in their budgets from the start of the new tax year but tell them now so they can follow the legal requirements to make staff redundant. All “woke” activity & jobs should be scrapped, such as Diversity, Inclusion & Equality Managers / employees. It is no accident that it spells DIE which we will if action is not taken. Incredibly the NHS is advertising for DIE Managers right now when our PM is allegedly against all the woke nonsense! Then if the PM & Chancellor get a real grip on the cost of government we can afford to index link tax allowances, reduce the basic rate of Income Tax by 5p, not just 1p & still control & start to repay our borrowings. The famous bonfire of Quangos has never happened & it needs to happen now! The government needs to set up a small committee of MPs, chaired by you, to examine every penny of government / NHS / Quangos spending with the power to stop it immediately. A serious review of & reduction of all spending will restore confidence in the pound, reduce inflation, make tax cuts sustainable & put Labour on the back foot for the next GE.
People might claim they like to pay more tax but they don’t & a significant reduction in the tax rates & increases in tax allowances will make people a lot more likely to vote Conservative & reject Labour.
September 27, 2022
+10
September 28, 2022
Correct re unnecessary NHS management . All staff are trained well in equality and diversity so why do we need management as well. Any case of individual discrimination which is not performance related can be tackled directly. Performance I need to add does not merely mean a collection of certificates but the ability to do the job within a limited time.
September 27, 2022
The problem was printing money in the first place. After all this time since 2009, money printing has only got us in this position we are in today. Maybe those who think that money printing works will now accept that it doesn’t and will consign it to history never to be used again.
September 27, 2022
The Treasury and its Central Bank are one and the same in a fiat currency economy. A separate monetary policy entity is a relic of Gold standard days. It needs to be re-integrated inside the Treasury at Minister of State level. There is a simple diagram at https://www.quora.com/Why-are-there-terms-Horizontal-and-Vertical-money that shows the basics of a fiat currency operation.
The vertical stream is the government sector spending brand new every day “money” into the nongovernment sector and draining it out into the bin. Taxes are not recycled, they do not fund government spending. They do hang around in various tax and loan account at commercial banks but only to maintain liquidity in those banks.
The horizontal stream is the non-government sector “credit” stream. Everything nets to zero in this stream; for every asset (loan) there is a deposit (liability). Notice the non-government tin shed. Where the governments vertical money gets saved in several different forms and not spent, causing the velocity of circulation of the governments money to slow down and the economy with it. The Japanese have a very large tin shed. Government so called “borrowing” is stored in the tin shed and also plays no part in government spending in the vertical money stream.
September 27, 2022
I will be radical again here. Decades ago all banks in Britain adhered to a Minimum Lending Rate when the Bank of England (then it was the government in effect) set national interest rates. Now the banks and Building Societies in Britain don’t all suddenly move in exact unison when the Bank of England changes interest rates.
To a large extent bank interest rates are an artificial and artificially controlled construct. As many people on this site, myself included, believe in market forces and free markets, why should the government or the Bank of England set any interest rate at all? Why not leave it all to freemarket players (banks and building societies etc.,) to compete over? Unlike decades ago we now have a freemarket ‘floating’ currency, so why not freemarket ‘floating, interest rates as well?
September 27, 2022
You need to study the difference in interest rates on bank “reserves” and the BoE “Base Rate”.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/bank-of-england-market-operations-guide/our-objectives#chapter-4-7
Government spending is called “reserves”. They become both an asset and an equal liability, for a high street bank that has a balance sheet. The state pension deposited in your current account is matched by an equal deposit in your bank’s “reserve” account at the BoE. Banks don’t lend “reserves”. If you move your pension deposit to another high street bank, its mirror “reserve” moves also to keep both banks balance sheets, balancing. Likewise, if your bank grants you a loan, the deposit created has to be backed by a “reserve” if you move it to another Bank. A Bank short of reserves to do the transfer, will have to borrow them at some expense from other Banks.
September 27, 2022
https://www.bmf.org.uk/BMF/News/News/BMF-response-to-new-Governments-Growth-Plan.aspx
Off topic but these are the sort of supply side, quango led, obstructionist policies, harming Uk growth.
I do hope you can raise it.
September 27, 2022
From MsM this afternoon
The Bank of England is preparing a “significant” monetary policy response after Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting Budget, a top official has signalled.
Huw Pill, the Bankās chief economist, told a conference: āWe have all seen recent significant fiscal news in the past few days. That has had significant market consequences as well as significant implications for the macro outlookā¦
āItās hard not to draw the conclusion that all this will require a significant monetary policy response.ā
Polatics, polatics, polatics. Chief econamist at the BoE or politcail posturing for long term failures? We should have only elected figures hitting the media with political statements.
September 27, 2022
The BBC is leading the opposition to tax cuts:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63049044
The BBC is a formidable political opponent. Let’s hope plans to get rid of the licence fee are accelerated.
September 27, 2022
Its useful to the real narrative, otherwise it would not be tax preferred. Its one of the easiest tax cuts and simplifications ever.
Still not banned elite private jet flights. Net Zero such an obvious scam, as if they are actually pragmatic about achieving it without killing the economy and as a result failing Net Zero.
Reset is the plan. Set by globalists, nothing to do with voting by the public. It is what it is.
September 27, 2022
It take 5 to 6 year to turnover gov debt to higher rates, as you say the CB control short rates and market control long rates, putting short rates up make no diffence, but only shows that the CB follow the markets when they no need to, the CB move up the short term rates to make out that they are in control and when a recession has already started with unemploment going up then they cut because the market is cutting, that short rates should be with gov and long term rates with the market. As it is now with net zero lending will be restrained to malinvestment for the most part, things that are not productive and for that you need rates below 1 per cent.
September 27, 2022
āThe independence of the Bank of England is widely asserted and almost universally applauded.ā
Iāve never understood why this āindependenceā, if it really exists, is considered a good idea.
Was it not simply devised so an elected Government could have someone to blame if the economy dives or if the Government wants to make decisions it knows will be unpopular?
Quangos continue to thrive and multiply because they enable Governments to implement policies and decisions they know are unpopular with the voters but wish to implement even if they donāt admit it in public.
Such as massive legal and illegal immigration and Net Zero.
The Government even funds organisations to take them to court.
September 27, 2022
Now being reported that the Government have said that the rapid return scheme for Albanians will not apply to any who claim ‘asylum’. Obviously having spent a lot of money to get here the migrants are not going to utter the magic words that are the key to hotel accommodation and benefits. So our leaders are not even willing to return invaders to home countries that are begging for their return.
September 27, 2022
The letter to the Chair of the Transport Select Committee from the outgoing CEO of Eurostar which the Chair of the Transport Select Committee has published makes interesting reading, however is not a surprise.
September 27, 2022
Dear Sir John
The announced closure of the Sheffield-Doncaster Airport presents an interesting challenge to your Government. I have no idea how important it is (or should be) for the region. The Prime Minister said in the Commons that she would protect the airport and its infrastructure while the owner insists that he would not accept support because it is totally unviable. So is this a case for investing in levelling up or just baling out a lame duck through state ownership?
It does not help that the industry most boosted in the non-budget was wholesale financial services (the City), which is disproportionately important for Government revenue but not much of a net economic benefit north of Kettering.
September 27, 2022
Well your party had a man on the tiller who was barely out of nappies when interest rates were last this high, so had limited experience apart from zero rates and QE to draw on. Same time the BOE governor was probably a/towing the line and b/ not knowledgeable enough to be assertive over the juveniles. Recipe for disaster which has duly happened.
September 27, 2022
The government has made an announcement about the method of compiling excess mortality statistics –
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements/excess-mortality-in-england-and-english-regions-november-2022-update
It does not appear to make sense.
Further, if the government can provide “estimates of excess mortality during the course of the pandemic in England and English regions by age, sex, region, ethnic group, level of deprivation, cause and place of death”, why does it ignore and not analyse the deaths and adverse reactions following vaccination reported to the yellow card system?
September 27, 2022
The B of E is having a bit of a tussle with the PM.
I think she feels the bank did not act quickly and strongly enough to avert inflation.
But then our independent B of E is scarcely politically neutral is it?
Which I suppose could be construed as a disadvantage of independence?
I mean is it better to obey the government than to obey international bodies?
True independence would mean making its very own policies.
September 27, 2022
The International Monetary Fund has urged Liz Truss to reverse the decision to abolish the top rate of income tax, in a highly unusual attack on the economic policy of a G7 country.
Clearly the ‘remain World’ is rattled that freedoms from oppression may give the UK a serious advantage. I do so hope the new team keep there nerve and keep pushing
September 27, 2022
“Why did the Bank do so much for so long last year? Why didnāt they have target interest rate levels for longer term borrowings to guide their interventions? Why didnāt they monitor and comment on the explosion of money growth their bond buying generated?
The Bank did not worry about asset inflation.”
Then I would look at and review actions taken by insiders or gov policy actions which may suggest that the inflation was fully anticipated. If i remember certain investments (GILTS) were withdrawn and certain pension investments were also changed.
Maybe an algo rule could replace the BOE short term interest setting and allow some expert resource to be redeployed elsewhere.
September 28, 2022
Some of us believe that cutting public expenditure drastically is the only way of making the tax cuts work. There may be low hanging fruit but let’s go for the big ones.
Old codgers like me are treated very kindly, yet ‘investing’ in the retired elderly is investing in yesterday. It doesn’t help the economy advance. When I think how difficult things were when I was the sole breadwinner for six people and how easy things are now – mainly because of the State’s attitude – it blows my mind. Things Government could do are:
– Get rid of the triple lock on State pensions
– Make the elderly pay for their prescriptions like everybody else
– End the normal Winter heating allowance and the Christmas bonus
– Introduce modest charges for GP appointments, non-emergency use of A&E and any use of the hospital system in a particular year
– Scrap the Social Care subsidy that mainly benefits home owners
If the Government did all of the above, it wouldn’t get elected but it is a menu to select from.
End public subsidy of the railways. Privatise the railways as vertically integrated area or corridor monopolies owning the freehold to all railway property and let them get on with it unregulated. If they need competition, the bus industry, the air companies and road haulage can provide it. Then NO SUBSIDY to railways. If you want to subsidise transport for the poor, the humble bus is a better and more flexible way to go.
Stop big pharma ripping off the NHS. End drug patents after 5 years – enough time to make a few bob – and substitute generic drugs. Stop the courts over-ruling NICE when it says a drug is bad value for money. Change the law on medical negligence so that doctors may be sued for over subscribing powerful drugs such as opiates. Force doctors to delegate some of their tasks to nurses and pharmacies and stop bellyaching for more, better paid doctors. Slightly sub-standard care is better than no care at all.
Review thoroughly the money wasted through furloughing and fraud during the pandemic and to what extent the public sector and the employed were favoured over the private sector and the employed. One screaming injustice – why were judges who refused to sit without a jury NOT furloughed? Limiting a judge’s salary to Ā£25000 would have got a reaction.
I’m tired of making all the running; someone else have a go.