Why make the downturn worse?

I accept the apparent Bank of England view that longer dated interest rates around 4% are quite high enough. I urge them to stop selling bonds at big losses, as this implies they want these longer rates higher and bond prices even lower, which is wrong.

I think Base rate should be higher. The Bank says it will go higher over the next meetings but leaves us guessing by how much. They should have hiked to 3.75% or 4% if they think that necessary and said they would then let the new higher rates bring inflation down, as they will do. Why wait? Why did they make the mistake of keeping rates far too low for too long?

Which brings us to the Treasury. Given such a major tightening of money and credit it would be wrong to raise taxes and cut spending on top. The Kwarteng tax and spend package did go too far, especially the energy support which was costed at more than twice the tax cuts. This new government is right to review the energy package after April to make it cheaper. I think they should limit  the subsidised energy by volume so a typical family gets it all at lower prices but those with heated swimming pools, fancy garden lighting and very large houses pay full price on the extra energy they use. They also need to reduce poor value and inessential spending. I have set out billions of savings in previous blogs.

They should not impose new taxes, but promote faster growth and more enterprise. They could postpone social care reform which was designed to boost inheritances. They need to recruit and deploy more nurses, doctors, and care workers.

The budget should launch an affordable growth plan, striving to abate or offset the recession the Bank is now forecasting. Austerity 2 is the last thing we need as the Bank brakes the economy sharply to try to correct its big inflationary mistake.

237 Comments

  1. Cuibono
    November 6, 2022

    It seems to me that for whatever reason the U.K. has little control over its policies ( of any kind?).
    Writ large on the internet are the lockstep economic requirements of ….who?
    IMF or Wall Street or EU?
    “Spend, spend,spend” and “ Lower for Longer”
    There are prob more such strategies?
    We appear to have no choice but to obey.

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      November 6, 2022

      May I ask Sir John if you (and your fellow backbenchers) have had an opportunity to officially input into this budget. Or is the backbenchers’ input into our future restricted to the coronation of your leader?

      Reply Yes, put in submissions

      1. Mickey Taking
        November 6, 2022

        you surprise me – it would appear backbenchers are expected to nod and vote for whatever is proposed!

    2. Peter
      November 6, 2022

      Cuibono,
      Indeed. There also seems little point in suggesting alternative policies as the government will ignore them and plough on regardless.
      Just have to put up with things until this government can be removed – sooner rather than later would be my preference.

      1. Bloke
        November 6, 2022

        Peter:
        The BoE is double guessing itself and even the Chancellor doesn’t know what will end up in the 17 Nov budget. Those two wander on separate paths like a starving wolf with a nose at both ends wondering what will catch them and whom to bite next. More importantly, neither of them knows how the public will react to what they cost to keep and the dangers they cause. Voters want a loyal retriever not a brace of rabid mutts.

      2. Timaction
        November 6, 2022

        We all think the same. Hunt/Sunak have no democratic mandate. The Tory’s mist go.

    3. glen cullen
      November 6, 2022

      Sunak – ‘’buy/build back greener’’ ….using foreign products, materials & minerals using borrowed money

      1. Hope
        November 6, 2022

        Sunak’s green stupidity for all to see. He has lost leave of all his senses and willing to bankrupt the nation, lose jobs, industry, skills and destroy our culture and way of life through mass immigration as a price worth paying! Totally happy to import fracked gas and hundreds of billions of goods from China who use coal fired power stations! He is an idiot.

        UN chief is full steam ahead to transfer wealth from rich to poor countries and become one! Trudeau wants to increase his mass immigration to 500,000 a year. That is under half the visas the UK gave out last year! Global solidarity they call it. I call it Madness.

        1. Excalibur
          November 6, 2022

          If Trudeau wants to increase mass immigration to Canada, send our illegals there.

  2. mickc
    November 6, 2022

    Truss and Kwarteng were right. We need growth: when the tide comes in all the boats rise.
    Regrettably the Conservatives no longer support the concept of a growing economy.
    If we are to have tax and spend, Labour have more experience…and will walk the next General Election, even with Starmer as leader.

    1. Cuibono
      November 6, 2022

      +many
      They were right (assuming it was not a “show” to prove the folly of such economics)
      Their proposals were sane and RIGHT.
      But there are more powerful forces at work!

    2. Ian Wragg
      November 6, 2022

      The treasury is following the misguided EU path. They haven’t left and are determined to keep us in lockstep with Brussels.
      Germany is going it alone with its £ 1.9 billion bailout when we are going to strangle the economy.
      The BoE is destroying the tory government and this may not be a bad thing.

      1. Ian Wragg
        November 6, 2022

        £190 billion.

        1. Hope
          November 6, 2022

          +1
          What are brexiteer MPs doing? They appear asleep and not bothered. Get rid of Sunak and Hunt.

          1. Original Richard
            November 6, 2022

            Hope :

            More like, what are the Opposition doing?

            Isn’t it Labour’s job, as the main opposition, to oppose the Government’s policies of unnecessary lockdowns, uncontrolled immigration, Net Zero, high tax and borrow with wasteful spending?

    3. Narrow Shoulders
      November 6, 2022

      Both Labour and Conservatives ARE committed to growing the economy. But much like the conglomerates of the 80s they intend to do this by acquisition and asset stripping rather than organic increases.

      We will have more people, spending more money but also having more spent on them. This happily supports greater house prices which our economy has become reliant on.

      1. Timaction
        November 6, 2022

        They’re growing the economy via mass legal and immigration. Anti English Westminster.

        1. Shirley M
          November 6, 2022

          Agreed, See my post below re the ‘benefits’ of low wage immigration. Hopefully, it will get past moderation.

    4. jerry
      November 6, 2022

      @mickc;“when the tide comes in all the boats rise.”

      Or sink, if they have been tied up inappropriately, as UK Plc has been for the last 50 years, or it turns out to be an incoming tsunami!

      To use another boating term, Truss attempted to open the lock gates, not the sluice gates…

      1. formula57
        November 6, 2022

        @ jerry – for both Truss and Sunak the term “all at sea” seems apposite.

        In neither case could a good outcome be expected: it is a great pity neither heeded Sir John’s view. He shows what we are about to endure does not have to be.

        1. jerry
          November 6, 2022

          @formula57; Sorry but in my opinion things would be far worse had the govt followed our host advice.
          The problems we face have not been caused recently, they are the collective errors of the last 50 years as I said, whilst our over reliance since the 1980s on the ‘magic money tree’ (the City) and the EU Single Market made things even worse. Brexit likely being the straw that broke the camels back so to speak, for there is now no disguising our historically awful BoPs averages over the last 40+ years…

          No doubt someone will be along to tell me I’m reading the ONS figures all wrong! 😐

      2. Mickey Taking
        November 6, 2022

        and the City ‘blew the bloody doors off’ as Michael Caine once said.

    5. glen cullen
      November 6, 2022

      Truss and Kwarteng were the most conservative government in a decade …and the MPs got rid of them !

      1. No Longer Anonymous
        November 6, 2022

        +1 But they were naive and set up for a fall by the civil service and the Treasury (which I think leaked to Hedge Fund managers but have allowed T&K to take the fall.)

    6. Bloke
      November 6, 2022

      mickc:
      Rachel Reeves appears poised as Keir Starmer’s replacement. She sounds a little like Janet Street Porter yet she has qualities others in Labour lack. However too much else within Labour is beyond tolerable and unworthy of support.

      1. Donna
        November 6, 2022

        Yup. They know they’ve got to have a female leader next; they can’t keep spouting on about diversity and continue to keep having leaders who are white males from Islington.

        1. jerry
          November 6, 2022

          @Donna; Surely the best person for the job, at the time, should become the leader of a political party, regardless of gender, race or creed, and that choice should surely be by those best able to judge, their close working colleagues, not grass roots activists and members, after all the latter is how Labour was lumped with with Corbyn and the Conservative party lumped with Truss – neither were the choice of their parliamentary colleagues.

          Female politicians have not need stilted contests since 1945, those that are good enough can win through, Thatcher won on merit, and had Barbra Castle not stood down at the 1979 general election, and heading off to Brussels in June ’79 she could well have become the next Labour leader instead of Foot (and one Jack Straw might never have become an MP…), 1983 might have been a very different general election.

        2. Bloke
          November 6, 2022

          Donna:
          Parties should fill their cabinets with the brightest bunch they can muster. All-women would be fine if they are the best. At present the variety in Conservative and Labour is a mixture of bright, mediocre, dim, daft, fast, slow and inert.

    7. Shirley M
      November 6, 2022

      Higher GDP via low wage immigration is not worth having. They cost more than they contribute and won’t even contribute enough for their own pension, never mind the investment put into them by the country. Low wages are only beneficial if it takes someone off the dole and I fail to see the benefit to the country of companies making profits off the backs of taxpayer funded and subsidised immigrant employees.

      1. John Hatfield
        November 6, 2022

        Yup.

      2. Timaction
        November 6, 2022

        +1

    8. Mickey Taking
      November 6, 2022

      but if the anchor is too tight they flood and sink!

  3. Lifelogic
    November 6, 2022

    Exactly. The last think we need for growth is even higher taxes on top on the net zero lunacy and higher mortgage rates too.

    Two good pieces on GBNews yesterday on Nana Akua we had the excellent Brian Catt and Peter Lilley (about 90mins in) on the net zero scam and then on Neil Oliver (-30 mins in) on the Astra Zenica freedom of information request (Hart Group) to find out what evidence they had that showed this quietly discontinued vaccine was ever deemed safe and effective.

    Total excess deaths still up about 16% in the UK more than caused by Covid in 2020 so what are the causes NHS/GP/Ambulance failures and delays, vaccine damage, long Covid or what? The MSM and Government do not seem to want to discuss or find out. Is this because they already suspect it is the vaccines? Yet they are still pushing these vaccines!

    1. Enigma
      November 6, 2022

      Lifelogic blaming the vaccines is the latest conspiracy theory don’t you know 🤔

      1. Lifelogic
        November 6, 2022

        Well, I just give the likely options but the statistics and dates of the increase in deaths by age does rather suggest they play a part in this increase. The government needs to investigate properly. When is this increase in all cause deaths likely to fall back I wonder?

        1. Enigma
          November 6, 2022

          Indeed

      2. Mike Wilson
        November 6, 2022

        Lifelogic blaming the vaccines is the latest conspiracy theory don’t you know

        Okay – you explain the current excess deaths.

        1. Mickey Taking
          November 6, 2022

          shootings, stabbings, suicides, road crashes, Covid, various terminals not picked up by NHS.
          Given UK democracy it can’t be boredom!

    2. Cuibono
      November 6, 2022

      100% agree!
      Plus that imprisonment was VERY terrifying and stressful.
      That one’s govt would do that to its people!!
      Some may have succumbed to the strain of it all.
      And all the disgusting mask rot has probably destroyed many immune systems.
      Dabble ye not in things you don’t bloody well understand!
      And do not sit on your hands when you know that evil is afoot!!

    3. Lifelogic
      November 6, 2022

      I see that the BBC is into full climate alarmist mode yet again for the COP beanfest, showing endless bad weather porn from around the world with that deluded dope Justin Rowlatt their climate editor. Another PPE graduate with almost zero understanding of energy engineering, transport, entropy, climate, logic or physics.

      Does he and the BBC really think that bad weather will suddenly stop if we erect a few more wind turbines and fill our farm land with solar panels? We have had bad weather for billions of years mate adaptation if needed is the sensible way to go.

      1. rose
        November 6, 2022

        The last thing they are going to do is defend us against climate change. Flood defences, coastal defences, border defences, food security, energy security, water security – all alien concepts to them.

    4. a-tracy
      November 6, 2022

      AZ isn’t discontinued, it’s still being used in current vaccine clinics? My parents both had it for their booster recently.

      We will have excess deaths in the UK because we had excess births after the war, we also had extra longevity thanks to modern medicines and treatments and now those people that lived an extra ten years or so are dying. So the lull is that.

      1. Donna
        November 6, 2022

        A lot of the excess deaths are in young people and those of working age, so your claim that it’s due to medicalised- longevity doesn’t stack up.

        1. a-tracy
          November 6, 2022

          Are there lots of excess deaths in the under 60’s Donna? I hadn’t read that I’ve just had a quick google search but the actuarial and UK death graphs I saw didn’t show age, do you have a link to excess deaths in the younger age category. I’ve just had my booster but I will stop my children if there is evidence is it leading to deaths in their age group.

          1. Donna
            November 6, 2022

            Government Statistics:

            https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2022-to-2023/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-week-44-report-up-to-week-40-data

            “In week 40 of 2022 in England, statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above the 2 z-score threshold was seen overall in certain age groups and regions, after correcting General Register Office (GRO) disaggregate data for reporting delay with the standardised EuroMOMO algorithm (Figure 1). Statistically significant excess mortality was seen in the 15 to 64 years and 65 years plus age groups…….”

            Table 1: Excess mortality by age group, England*
            Age group (years) Excess detected in week 40 2022? Weeks with excess since week 20 2022
            <5 No 24, 29
            5 to 14 No NA
            15 to 64 Yes 21, 25, 27 to 29, 31 to 33, 35, 38 to 40
            65+ Yes 23 to 30, 32 to 33, 38 to 40

          2. No Longer Anonymous
            November 6, 2022

            a-tracy – A lot of deaths in the over 70’s age group are about to take place because of lack of heating owing to Net Zero and also to a proxy war with Russia so that Ukraine might have the freedom to join the EU while we may not leave it. This without considering the risk of nuclear war so that Ukraine might join the EU while we can’t leave it for fear of gangsters armed with mere Semtex.

            Do you not see the irony ? Especially since those of us who opposed lockdown were accused of wanting to ‘kill granny’ ??? Net Zero freaks and pro Ukraine-join-EU nut jobs are perfectly prepared to kill granny and Whitty ain’t watching.

            The excess deaths are across all age groups and my own personal tally of friends to have died since Hancock’s I’m A Celeb’s and I’m-having-an-affair-during-lockdown-so-want-it-to-continue totals 19 and none from Covid, most in the under 60 age group.

            The Tories are an existential threat to our civilisation.

        2. Mickey Taking
          November 6, 2022

          evidence?

          1. Donna
            November 6, 2022

            Yes. Check out the Government’s statistics.

            https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2022-to-2023/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-week-44-report-up-to-week-40-data

            Statistically significant excess deaths in the 15-64 and 65+ age groups

        3. Mickey Taking
          November 7, 2022

          Thank you Donna for evidence?
          Based on some instances – but where is the 16% excess quoted on here?

    5. Donna
      November 6, 2022

      Dr Malone recently released a podcast in which he explained that the mRNA jabs are intended to be a platform technology. That means the basic model will be reused with “bolt on” adaption for future viruses. It’s why they’re talking about jabs for new viruses being available in 100 days. The platform which has been subjected to a mass human medical trial won’t change.
      So they can’t admit/accept that the basic technology is flawed, let alone dangerous.

      1. Mickey Taking
        November 6, 2022

        Got a PhD in Messenger RNA (abbreviated mRNA) is a type of single-stranded RNA involved in protein synthesis.
        Just asking?

        1. margaret
          November 6, 2022

          No just 3 courses….. and A level human biology

          1. Mickey Taking
            November 7, 2022

            ….which explored mRNA?

    6. Fedupsoutherner
      November 6, 2022

      LL. Neil Oliver was brilliant last night. I understood exactly the message he was getting across and the future looks very bleak indeed.

      1. Lifelogic
        November 6, 2022

        +1

    7. Narrow Shoulders
      November 6, 2022

      The Astra Zeneca vaccine was discontinued because there was no money in it. It kept me uninfected right up until I had the Moderna one (which made me feel awful for a month and then I got Covid about 2 months later).

      I will not be having another Covid vaccine unless they reinstate the Astra one

      1. Hat man
        November 6, 2022

        Just stick with the first part of your last sentence, NS, and you’ll probably be just fine.

        There’s no money in the AZ injection because more and more governments have been disallowing it. Glad to hear you have come through unscathed, though.

      2. rose
        November 6, 2022

        Snap. The Oxford/Astra Zeneca gave me no side effects and worked till I had the Pfizer booster. I then went down two months later with a much worse attack of the Wuhan virus than the early one I had had without any vaccinations.

        1. Mickey Taking
          November 6, 2022

          it is basically luck of the draw as to how any person reacts to vaccines, or not. Depends on your genetic makeup etc.
          Some catch Covid from a tiny exposure eg a mild cough 20 feet away, others can embrace a positive person and not catch it. Some hardly know they caught it (some only found out from a test) other so badly affected they died.

      3. rose
        November 6, 2022

        PS I’ve refused the latest Moderna booster but had the flu one.

        1. Mickey Taking
          November 6, 2022

          very interesting – you are happy to have active material injected, but not dead material?

          1. Hat man
            November 7, 2022

            Apparently, Rose prefers not to take into her body mRNA instructions to make the Covid spike protein, which is how Moderna’s Spikevax works. Wise choice.

    8. Lifelogic
      November 6, 2022

      “If Sunak and Hunt don’t change course, we are heading for severe recession
      Liz Truss’s pro-growth agenda is what the UK economy needed. We will all suffer from its demise”

      Patrick Minford is surely quite right in the Telegraph today.

      The other comment sections are sound too, especially Matt Ridley, Dan Hannan, Iain Duncan-Smith and the leader. In short this “Conservative”, new Labour (but even worse) government is getting almost everything wrong.

      1. jerry
        November 6, 2022

        @LL; That would be why the opinion polls still put Labour in the lead then, because the majority think they have got it all wrong.

        Tell us, if you were to read the Morning Star would you be so unquestioning of their editorial line as you are with your beloved Faily… sorry, Daily Telegraph, or would you see though their partisanship? For someone with, supposedly, four Degrees your naivety can be outstanding at times!

        1. Lifelogic
          November 6, 2022

          Well clearly that would depend on the articles!

      2. No Longer Anonymous
        November 6, 2022

        They want us begging to go back in the EU and begging for Green.

    9. jerry
      November 6, 2022

      @LL; “to find out what evidence they had that showed this quietly discontinued vaccine was ever deemed safe and effective. “

      If there is a FOI request for evidence, surely that suggest there is as yet no proven facts to question if a vaccine was unsafe, just (conspiracy?) theories. The reason for medication being (fully or partially) withdrawn can indeed be due to safety concerns, Thalidomide being a prime example, but it can also be simply due to more effective (updated) products becoming available.

      so what are the causes NHS/GP/Ambulance failures and delays, vaccine damage, long Covid or what?”

      Under funding of the NHS, because some people keep wanting ever more tax cuts perhaps? 😛

      Strange how other countries, who tend to pay far more for their health care, either via taxes [1] or insurance, have far better levels of service than here in the UK. Also, especially in the USA, many more treatments appear to be available over the counter (indeed some even by mail order), but here in the UK they are only available via a prescription, signed by over worked health care professionals…

      [1] direct or indirect

      1. Lifelogic
        November 6, 2022

        A lot of countries spend rather less than the UK on healthcare yet have far better health outcomes. But many countries have increased levels of all cause deaths currently, even those with rather batter health systems.

        1. jerry
          November 6, 2022

          @LL; But to have a recorded “better health outcome” one first needs to have both diagnosis and then treatment, those who fall through the gaps never appear on the ‘treatment’ states you suggest (but fail to cite), although such people do appear on early deaths from all causes states or poverty state due to not being able to work…

      2. Lifelogic
        November 6, 2022

        Jerry you say “If there is a FOI request for evidence, surely that suggest there is as yet no proven facts to question if a vaccine was unsafe, just (conspiracy?) theories.”

        Well we have the evidence of vaccine injuries during the roll out by date and time. The Hart group FOI request is to get access to the data that led them to believe it was safe and effective before the roll out and why the regulators approved it. This even for children who were at no real Covid risk – eventually.

        1. jerry
          November 6, 2022

          @LL; “Well we have the SUPPOSITION of vaccine injuries during the roll out by date and time”

          There, corrected that for you…

      3. Mickey Taking
        November 6, 2022

        ‘signed by over worked health care professionals…’
        A funny term for average GP.

        1. jerry
          November 6, 2022

          @MT; Many other health care professionals sign prescriptions, not just GPs, nurses and dentists for example, even non GP doctors!

          1. Mickey Taking
            November 7, 2022

            Even at my local GP surgery neither of the 2 prescription review qualified professionals can sign off a prescription. A condition of employment by the Partnership perhaps?

      4. No Longer Anonymous
        November 6, 2022

        The NHS is stuffed with Woke. It costs a lot.

  4. Cuibono
    November 6, 2022

    Hiking fuel costs, giving subsidies and then limiting the subsidies is just a way of controlling consumption.
    Not to mention a kind of anti-heated swimming pool social credit type situation!! How about when that descends into finger pointing over too many hot baths?? And it WILL!
    We have plenty of undug coal and unfracked oil/gas.This is a manufactured fuel crisis.
    And we all know its objective.
    Net Zero.
    And we have not been given any alternatives with which to keep warm!!

    1. Cuibono
      November 6, 2022

      For the love of God…this is SUCH a dangerous route to take.
      “Citizen Jones has exceeded his water ration for the week. Public shaming for him in the stocks for 10 days!”

      1. Narrow Shoulders
        November 6, 2022

        And we know which demographic would have reports acted upon and which wouldn’t

        1. Cuibono
          November 6, 2022

          Yes!
          100%

    2. Lifelogic
      November 6, 2022

      Clearly we will all have to share the bathwater for all the family bathing no more than once a month (needed or not) and then use it to flush to loo once a day.

      Plus live in one room that is slightly warm (if you are lucky). Clearly it is vital all the fossil fuel energy we have is saved to heat the royal mansions and fuel all the private jets & helicopters that are vital to get politicians and crony capitalists to Cop 27.

      1. Cuibono
        November 6, 2022

        +many
        And we all know what happens when we are crammed together in unsanitary conditions.
        Never mind Covid.
        Look at Manston…diphtheria (really nasty) and TB ditto.
        Wait for typhoid!

        1. Mickey Taking
          November 6, 2022

          brought in – not accidental.

      2. Mickey Taking
        November 6, 2022

        A family living in one room might make it warmer, is that what you suggest, or by providing a heat source other than bodies breathing?

        1. Lifelogic
          November 6, 2022

          About 200-400 Watts of heat given off per person on average.

    3. a-tracy
      November 6, 2022

      I agree with you Cuibono, people only have to look at the rate set for the 55% extra tax on private pensions set by Osborne

      Feb 2016 — In 2010, the lifetime allowance (LTA) for pension tax relief stood at £1.8m, but since then it has been cut every two years – source ft

      Nov 2014 — A pension pot worth the full lifetime allowance of £1,250,000 will be liable to almost £408,000 in tax,

      Chancellor George Osborne confirmed the lifetime allowance would be reduced from £1.25m to £1m from the 2016-17 tax year, netting the Treasury an extra £600m a year. But he said he would index the lifetime allowance from the 2018-19 tax year

      It’s now £1,073,100.

      They persuaded everyone to lock up their income to try to achieve a fraction of what is gained in the public sector ‘invisible pension pots’ then once you are trapped they change the rules and clean take your money off you that you could have just blown yourself earlier in your life. Is it, in the words of the left wing journalists in the Guardian, time for a ‘revolt’ about this. Much easier to arrange revolts if someone is funding you or your union is egging you on or winding you up as a student, much harder when as they know we are individuals without spokespeople because the fpb, the fsb, the iod all a waste of blimin space.

      1. Cuibono
        November 6, 2022

        +many
        The powers that be have spent literally centuries gathering EVERYTHING into their own grubby mitts.
        This latest scamming feels like the final push.

      2. Mickey Taking
        November 6, 2022

        spend the money on something tradeable in future years, other than a pension. Housing, classic cars, artworks, rare metals, have a careful punt on a few shares…

      3. No Longer Anonymous
        November 6, 2022

        How can we have ruined pensions in the private sector and gold plated ones in the public sector ?

        And young doctors paying for welfare cheats, politician pensions and men in boats living in warm hotels while they shiver in cold single rooms ???

    4. glen cullen
      November 6, 2022

      I’ve just watched Sky FYI 10:30am presented by and for children & teenagers, its pure propaganda for the climate crusaders …shame on Sky, shame on the culture committee and shame on our government for involving children in this scam

      1. Cuibono
        November 6, 2022

        +many
        That’s another thing they have worked sooo hard at over at least the last 200 years.
        Taking children away from their family ( ideologically and physically).
        Thus breaking up the family.

    5. anon
      November 6, 2022

      Strange that private jet travel is still allowed. Strange in a world controlled by globalists we can only tax the plebs on income.
      Strange that the alternatives are not explored or implemented in logical way. No infrastructure to manage the variability of production. No exponential increase is hydro capacity or other to utilise the energy.

      If you restrict supply of energy and sanction your citizens from importing energy. This will only create economic pain.

      Wont be long for the call for solidarity, NET THEM to zero taxes, on real wealth starting with our over protected elites.
      Trillionaires to billionaires and then our very millionaire HOL HOC, er not likely but i do see the end of the middle class and a rising serf class perhaps easier to control than bloody minded anglo-saxons.

  5. Shirley M
    November 6, 2022

    You make the wrong assumption of thinking they want to help the UK succeed. They don’t.

    This is quite obvious. Hunt now wants to increase council tax by £200. They are determined to tax us out of existence, move jobs and industry abroad, make us less self sufficient therefore depriving us of more jobs and taxes while increasing our deficit, have us pay BILLIONS to help others (especially foreign criminals who deserve NOTHING) while our own go cold and hungry. This is not a government. It is a sinister dictatorship and demolition of the UK.

    Our country has been ruined, the ruination continues and much of it it look pretty irreversible to me. WHY does democracy not allow us to kick them out? Do we have to get violent, like the dinghy people, in order to get noticed and be given the care that is already given to the invaders at OUR expense, while legal citizens go without?

    I want a GE, and I want it now. I know I won’t get one. Politicians look after one another, not the country, and Parliament has now become the most dishonest, traitorous, deliberately wasteful and harmful organisation in the land. I would now advise any young hard working entrepreneur to get the hell out of the UK if they can find an honest and decent country that will take them, because the UK is neither and is still going downhill at a rapid rate. Thank you, Tories, for ruining OUR country, permanently!

    1. BOF
      November 6, 2022

      +1 Shirley M

    2. Narrow Shoulders
      November 6, 2022

      Hunt should add an additional band onto Council tax if he wants to raise additional monies.

      He should also remove Council tax being paid as a benefit. Use services – pay for them

      1. Dave Andrews
        November 6, 2022

        If we just paid for the services we use, our council tax would be a small fraction of what it is.

      2. rose
        November 6, 2022

        Revaluation would be suicide for the Conservatives as it was in Scotland in the early eighties. They have never recovered from revaluation there. It was revalution and not the poll tax, despite what you have been told.

    3. Fedupsoutherner
      November 6, 2022

      Shirley. +1000. You are so right in everything you say. What a depressing future and all brought about by the rich and selfish who aren’t content with the millions they are already sitting on. Neil Oliver was saying last night that the WEF UN and unlected organisations such as the WHO and these other absurd groups funded by the wealthy will have ultimate control over populations through food and energy. It’s happening now in Holland where farmers are having to sell farms. We will eventually see rationing for meat abd dairy products not to mention water and energy. People think this is conspiracy thinking but you only have to look at what will be discussed at COP26 and net zero so see it unfolding slowly. The masses will be controlled by the super rich who won’t change their lifestyles at all. Are riots the only tool we have left?

      1. The Prangwizard
        November 6, 2022

        It seems to me that supermarkets, either out of the belief of their board of directors, or to feel they should stay in line with ‘customer demand’, the quantity of meat available for sale is reduced. They dare not be seen to be out if step by promoting it, and if they offer less, less will be bought, and they will then say they were correct.

        Yes, I favour riot. It is the only way authoritarians over us will notice us and listen. Maybe weak politicians on our side will notice too and wake up to the true danger ahead. Authoritarians don’t negotiate.

      2. Donna
        November 6, 2022

        No, you have a vote. But if you vote for one branch of the Westminster Uni-Party (including the SNP and Plaid in the usual 3) then you’ll get the outcome you described above.

        If you want change, you first have to change your own behaviour.

        1. Shirley M
          November 7, 2022

          +1 Donna

    4. Hope
      November 6, 2022

      Shirley, it is scare tactics by economics, again, to get us to rejoin or closely align.
      To EU. Who in their right mind would have more EU inter-connectors to be more reliant on EU for energy! We need energy independent that is obvious to everyone except Sunak and Hunt! Buying fracked gas from Qatar and US but produce our own! Fanatical idiots determined to get us back to total EU control.

      France has majority of our territorial fishing waters, level playing field ensures no escape on environment etc, still paying billions yearly, N.Ireland annexed to keep UK in EU regulatory orbit, ECHR still supreme over UK courts to ensure EU control our borders, ECJ still supreme. EU laws still on the books. Economy being used to keep UK in straight jacket not to be more prosperous for leaving EU, BOE still following EU, Hunt will make sure big state high tax continues! Where are the benefits of leaving EU! None.

      Raab looking at British bill of rights 6 years after leaving! I think we can safely assume a lie and deception for election purposes!

      1. Shirley M
        November 6, 2022

        I agree 100% Hope. Oh, for a government that works in the interests of the UK? Why don’t they? We pay them to do that, don’t we? Is someone giving them better pay to turn traitor?

        1. Hope
          November 6, 2022

          We saw withe the rogue parliament Tory and Labour are on when EU is concerned. Whichever is in power EU still in charge and they will follow! The scam has continued for 48 years while lying to say opposite.

    5. graham1946
      November 6, 2022

      Bitter words, but much truth in them. Even if the ‘powers that be’ read them, they won’t give a damn. They are all right jack and are busy hauling up the WEF ladder. Perhaps if we are truly ‘all in this together’ the politicians could take a substantial pay cut so we actually are. Will they hell, just as we are being taxed out of existence you can bet another big wage increase for them awarded of course by a panel ‘outside their control’ will come along.

    6. Jim Whitehead
      November 6, 2022

      Shirley M, +++++++++++

    7. jerry
      November 6, 2022

      @Shirley M; Our country has been ruined, the ruination continues and much of it it look pretty irreversible to me.”

      Indeed perhaps you are correct, but the Tory party has been in government 30 of the last 43 years and which (basic) set of policy doctrines have held sway for the last 43 years, if not longer, policies originally theorized by Friedman but now variously called Monetarism, Thatcherism & Reaganomics. Stop bleating, like so many, you no doubt voted unquestioning for this ruination right up to the bitter end (2019), and had Truss opted to renew the mandate rather than announce that budget, you would have voted for this madness yet again…

      1. Shirley M
        November 6, 2022

        You are wrong about my voting habits. So sorry! Maybe assumptions are not your forte? I am a genuine floating voter with no allegiance to any particular party, but I am determined not to vote for LibLabCon. I’d vote for Screaming Lord Sutch (or even Mickey Mouse) in preference to any of the main treasonous and undemocratic parties.

  6. Lifelogic
    November 6, 2022

    If this excess (all cause death rate increase) at +16% (well over 200 a day) persists at the same high rate, then this might decrease overall UK life expectancy perhaps even by as much as 9 years or so in the UK (depending on the age group distributions).

    I imagine it will fall away but who know unless the research is done no sign of his yet alas. Is the government going to come clean and actually investigate the causes of these many increased deaths (these across most age groups and even in maternity deaths and with lower fertility rates)? Or are they going to try to cover it up for 40 years or so like the Blood Contamination scandal, Hillsborough or the very many NHS scandals over the years?

    1. BOF
      November 6, 2022

      LL
      What cannot be denied is that this shocking excess death rate follows campaigns for jabs and boosters. The fact that no attempt has or is being made to investigate is in itself highly suspicious and suggests cover up. Dropping dead has become a major cause of death.

      1. BOF
        November 6, 2022

        Perhaps I should have said dying unexpectedly, rather than ‘dropping dead’.

        1. Mickey Taking
          November 6, 2022

          well yes,dying is sort of inevitable ….usually already prone rather than dropping….
          In years gone by a lot happened marching across fields – ordered to face machine gun fire.

      2. Lifelogic
        November 6, 2022

        +1

  7. Mark B
    November 6, 2022

    Good morning.

    I cannot help but get the feeling that this recession is being deliberately made worse in order for certain interested parties to pick up stock on the cheap. It is the only thing that to me makes sense.

    As always, follow the money.

    1. Hope
      November 6, 2022

      Mark,
      I think poor economy is to scare people into closer EU alignment. UK not allowed to be close neighbour doing well outside EU. What would countries inside think!

      1. glen cullen
        November 6, 2022

        Could be right

    2. graham1946
      November 6, 2022

      I agree, pretty much what I said a few days ago. The rich are waiting fire sale prices to hoover up yet more from those panicked or who have to sell, to crystalise the losses. It happens every time there is a downturn and so the gap between rich and poor grows ever larger. I can’t help but feel it is all engineered. If not we are governed by some exceedingly stupid people, like Carney at the BoE now trying to shift blame from his own part in it onto Brexit, when it is clear the EU is no better off than we are.

      1. anon
        November 6, 2022

        Someone has to pay, guess who?

        “and.. its gone”.. “poof” reference south park

        “You can help to stop scammers by warning your friends and family, and by making Action Fraud aware of any scams that you have encountered.” reference HMCG

    3. Ian Wragg
      November 6, 2022

      It’s being made worse so they can declare the only salvation is rejoining the single market and customs union.
      That’s been the plan all along, together with free movement and commitment to join the Euro.

  8. Cuibono
    November 6, 2022

    People are warned of the dangers of Loan Sharks (who exact harsh conditions) and the crimes of theft and counterfeiting.
    Maybe governments should study the same lessons?
    After all…whatever they have or haven’t done over the years…it isn’t really working. Is it?

    1. Lifelogic
      November 6, 2022

      Not they who will repay debt so what interest do the BoE staff have in obtaining a good deal even without crony capitalism, the odd free lunch or even blatant corruption?

      We see with the migrant’s hotel bills ~ £150 a night average, that governments just love to overpay about five times the going rate in this case.

  9. Lifelogic
    November 6, 2022

    It is far worse than just “tax and spend” it is tax, borrow & waste, currency debase, crony capitalisms/corruption by vested interests, vast over regulation and the bonkers expensive/net zero insanity on top of this too. Increasing tax rates even further for this hugely over-taxed position just strangles the golden geese that lay the golden eggs. You get far fewer golden eggs this way in the end. The state is double the size it should be and hugely misdirected and wasteful too.

    Sunak keeps talking of inflation being enemy no. 1, but who caused this inflation? Clearly one Andrew Bailey and Rishi Sunak working together to debase Stirling and waste money hand over fist. The waste and negligence still continues.

    1. Ian B
      November 6, 2022

      @Lifelogic +1, Shows how niave those that are now in Government aided by the MsM are. Those that caused the structural prblems got to take a ‘very’ short break and the Conservative Party forced them back on us.

      The UK Government and the BoE, are borrowing to subsidies the problems someone called Andrew Bailey failed to address in his previous life – now he gets to dump it on the taxpayer.

  10. Gary Megson
    November 6, 2022

    “They need to recruit and deploy more nurses, doctors, and care workers” – o they do , do they? Where from, do tell. Now that your crazed Brexit has shut off supply off such workers from our nearest neighbours. Maybe you intend to force the retired back into work? Or do you plan a huge influx from India, don’t remember seeing that on the side of a bus.

    1. beresford
      November 6, 2022

      A number of nurses and care workers were driven out by the ‘vaccine’ mandates. Perhaps we could make these jobs more attractive by paying better salaries, and spend the money to train our own people, rather than the Ponzi scheme of endless importation from lower-wage countries,

      1. Mickey Taking
        November 6, 2022

        and drop the stupid degree starter for those who will change beds, provide pans, empty them, note blood pressure amd temperature, if lucky patients might get helped to eat iffy food left at end of bed.

        1. The Prangwizard
          November 6, 2022

          When my late father was seriously ill with cancer, his gums were badly swollen, very painful and he could not sit up in bed. He was served cornflakes at breakfast which were left at the foot of the bed.

          This is the type of service you get from the callous, unfeeling workers in NHS hospitals. I am sickened by political praisers of them. They clearly live in another protected world.

    2. Old Albion
      November 6, 2022

      Why is it O/K to take health workers from other countries rather than train our own? Are there no sick people in the EU or Africa or India ?

    3. IanT
      November 6, 2022

      If you believe that the short term solution to the skills crisis is to just import more ‘trained’ labour Gary, then you are correct. But perhaps if we took a longer term view, we could stop selling our young ‘soft’ degrees that don’t lead to productive employment (just a lot of debt) and have some form of encouragement for people to learn those skills we actually need. Of course we need professional people but we also need qualified plumbers, electricians, machinists, industrial technicians of all sorts (CNC, CAD, CAM, Teleco etc) too.

      Currently, it is far easier & cheaper to bring in pre-trained people (thereby depriving their countries of their skills) than train our own. Is it really cheaper (for the UK) to import an NHS Consultant (with her husband, two children and elderly parents) than invest in our own people? Local recruits, with their dependants/relatives already resident here, do not need additional housing, education, health care or pension support. The answer is that when viewed in the ’round’ , it costs more – but that is the short sighted view that we currently take.

      Without endless ‘cheap’ labour (and the correct fiscal incentives), maybe we could encourage industry to automate and train skilled labour that would not only improve our productivity but also improve pay rates too. That might encourage some of our economically inactive to return to work, as well as the unemployed to learn new skills. Not a quick solution but surely much better than just continually importing people to help fill in the cracks.

      Nothing to do with Brexit – a lot more to do with a complete lack of long term vision (e.g. planning) by our ‘Leaders’ and Civil Service.

      1. Shirley M
        November 7, 2022

        I agree fully, IanT.

    4. Peter2
      November 6, 2022

      70 million here in the UK gazza
      Why pinch more trained staff from other perhaps poorer nations where they are really needed?

  11. Wanderer
    November 6, 2022

    It really makes one wonder why the sensible suggestions of our host are not carried out by those in power. I used to think “clockup rather than conspiracy”. I’m no longer so sure. But it will be “clock up” come the next election: they must know it and they don’t seemingly care.

  12. Richard1
    November 6, 2022

    Apparently the hapless Andrew Bailey can’t be removed as governor of the BoE and is there for 8 years. Perhaps we should organise a public subscription – if enough people chuck in a couple of quid there might be enough millions to persuade him to resign. This may be the only way to get rid of public officials whose ‘independent’ status gives them immunity from dismissal when they screw up and impose huge and unnecessary cost on the rest of us.

  13. R.Grange
    November 6, 2022

    How do you finance growth, other than by making it worthwhile for entrepreneurs to start new businesses or expand existing ones? The government cannot wave a magic wand to suddenly change the business climate, but could help to create more favourable conditions by taking certain steps that would influence the situation. First, come clean on Covid and admit it was a huge mistake (at best): the economy should never again be disrupted by order of dodgy public health organisations. Second, stop supporting the war in Ukraine and insist Kiev negotiates a cease-fire, i.e. the opposite of what Johnson did. At the same time stop participating in the stupid self-defeating Russia sanctions. Third, stop the net zero insanity and promote achievable energy self-reliance with the resources we have under the ground. If Britain were to give the lead in these three areas, the policy consensus among the global elites would start to crumble. Of course, with the government we currently have, none of that is going to happen. And that’s why growth isn’t going to happen either.

  14. Old Albion
    November 6, 2022

    Quote I think they should limit the subsidised energy by volume so a typical family gets it all at lower prices but those with heated swimming pools, fancy garden lighting and very large houses pay full price on the extra energy they use. Endquote.

    Rishi Sunak you mean ?

  15. BOF
    November 6, 2022

    Apart from the absurd energy support scheme, I agreed with the conservative policies of Truss and Kwateng.

    I disagree with ALL the socialist policies of the previously failed trio of Sunak, Hunt and Bailey.

    1. glen cullen
      November 6, 2022

      +1 many

  16. Beecee
    November 6, 2022

    Mr Sunak says he will turn the UK into a ‘Clean Energy Superpower’.

    Oh dear!

    1. glen cullen
      November 6, 2022

      So that’s the plan folks were going back to the 18th century

      1. Lifelogic
        November 7, 2022

        +1

    2. Ian Wragg
      November 6, 2022

      More useless windmills and no nuclear to provide back up.
      More interconnectors to Europe which is itself short of power.
      The children are incharge.

  17. acorn
    November 6, 2022

    BTW. Have you seen the number of LNG tankers gathering in the Channel, waiting for the prices to go up next spring? “Nov 4, 2022 at 8:00 am ET Natural-Gas Tankers Line Up Off Europe, Waiting for Prices to Rise” ; very informative from the WSJ.

    1. Mickey Taking
      November 6, 2022

      they have always queued off W.Devon and E.Cornwall.

    2. Peter2
      November 6, 2022

      You know prices are going to go up acorn.
      Thanks for the investment tip.

  18. Donna
    November 6, 2022

    The B of E isn’t just forecasting a recession, in cahoots with The Treasury/Government it is creating the policies which will make it worse.

    We know the WHAT, WHEN, HOW, WHERE and WHO which are being deployed to deliver it.

    The only real question we still need answered is WHY.

    And I think the answer to that is found in Sharm el Sheikh this weekend and at Davos. Because they want us to be colder, poorer, less affluent, indebted and fearful …. and therefore easier to control.

    The B of E and the Government are deliberately making the recession worse that it needs to be and they can do it safe in the knowledge that when the CON Party is given a massive electoral kicking it thoroughly deserves, the other 2 legs of the Uni-Party stool will step in and continue with exactly the same policies.

    1. BOF
      November 6, 2022

      I agree with you Donna. Like the last 2 years, it is all about control.

    2. Wanderer
      November 6, 2022

      +1 Donna. It’s certainly looking that way. Without a credible opposition Party to LabCon, we seem to be heading rapidly towards a technocratic globalist totalitarianism. The traditional culture of multiple nations destroyed, the era of liberal democracy over. Somehow we have to push back. I think the US Midterms are a last chance to turn the tide.

  19. Bryan Harris
    November 6, 2022

    I have no faith that the BoE, the Treasury, nor our government is actually working for the best interests of the country – Otherwise they would be taking a different course.

    As national debt piles up, as we face ever more economic upheavals due to irrational dogma, and as we face the prospect of a collapsing food chain and economy, the globalists and their puppets continue to pile on the problems for us, so that they can achieve their NWO.

    Without destruction there can be no re-build, they tell us.

    That destruction will be far from pain-free, for us, if we allow what is left of our civilisation to crumble before us without even realising what is happening.

    There will be no change of direction from the globalist establishment, now so embedded in our society, without a major shift in understanding that we are on a precipice, and we have very little time left to make things right.

    1. Donna
      November 6, 2022

      Well said.

  20. Shirley M
    November 6, 2022

    I don’t understand why the government cannot push the dinghies back into French waters. These are not ‘sea rescues’. These people DELIBERATELY put themselves in danger, and as non-Brits they should be charged with the cost of rescue and the cost of returning them to France, but just pushing them back, and alerting the French authorities that there is a dinghy in need of help should be sufficient, surely, as the French escort them to the midline anyway and ‘alert’ us, so should already be on hand to ‘rescue’ them. I am sure that this would also help France, in the longer term, as it would discourage the illegals from gathering at Calais and making problems for the locals.

    The only logical explanation at the lack of government action is too depressing to consider. They would rather waste money on expensive and nonsensical ‘solutions’ such as Rwanda that they KNOW will fail dismally and cost a fortune in the process. There are far simpler and less expensive solutions, the first would be to prevent any boat people from setting foot on UK soil.

    1. Shirley M
      November 6, 2022

      As far as I know, if people arrived at an airport, rail or seaport without the correct documentation they would NOT be allowed in, and would be returned to their starting point. The transport owners may also be heavily fined. We know where these dinghy people come from (France) so why are the same rules not being applied to them?

      C’mon, there must be some excuse or somebody else to blame. It couldn’t be the government and the lack of legal security for the UK, could it? Who else can solve this problem? The government throw vast amounts of OUR money at the problem and waste it ‘pretending’ to be doing ‘something’. It’s all one big CON, which has become typical of the CONS.

      1. Dave Andrews
        November 6, 2022

        The French don’t want them either, but if they took action to return them to their own countries (rather than wander round France), they might then claim asylum in France, and that’s the last thing they want.
        Where France is let off easily is they tolerate children out in the elements, and don’t ensure they’re taken into care. Imagine if the UK did that, you wouldn’t hear the end of it.

    2. Wanderer
      November 6, 2022

      +1 Shirley M. Let’s see what the new Italian regime manages to do about their unwanted arrivals.

      Incidentally have you seen the adverts for properties to rent outside of South East England? Landlords can get a great looking 5 year rental deal, with full insurance and no management charge, if they let to the companies with contracts to house the illegals. Clearly MPs don’t want them in the South East…it won’t take long for the “red wall” to see red about this.

      1. Shirley M
        November 6, 2022

        Yes, I have seen, and I have also seen the message it sends regarding their LONG TERM care. FIVE YEARS the taxpayers will be paying for them, or more? It is pretty clear they will make no attempt to remove any. So, how many illegals will there be in 5 years time, all being kept in idle comfort by the hard pressed taxpayer?

  21. Christine
    November 6, 2022

    “employ more doctors, nurses and care workers”.

    Wasn’t it your party that enforced mandatory vaccinations for this group of workers resulting in the sacking of many, leading to the current shortage? We were told the vaccine had a high success rate for stopping us from contracting COVID and transmitting it to others. We now know this is completely untrue yet the pharmaceutical companies continue to make vast profits. Where is the talk of a windfall tax on these profits like we hear for the oil companies? In the US the price of the vaccine is set to increase four fold.

    Something is badly wrong that governments cover up what happened during the pandemic and continue to silence critics. Like Lifelogic says where is the investigation into the high excess deaths across the western world? I’ve had enough of these so called experts that have ruined our economy they need to be investigated not given undeserved honours.

  22. […] Why make the downturn worse? – John Redwood […]

    1. Lifelogic
      November 7, 2022

      +1

  23. Brian Tomkinson
    November 6, 2022

    Time for you and the few other actual remaining Conservatives to leave this sham party. You have no influence and are being ignored, possibly being laughed at behind your back by those put in place to carry out the wishes of the gloabilsts.

    1. Jim Whitehead
      November 6, 2022

      BT, ++++++++

  24. […] Why make the downturn worse? – John Redwood […]

  25. […] Why make the downturn worse? – John Redwood […]

  26. Humblepie
    November 6, 2022

    ‘Doctors differ and patients die’

    It seems to me that things were not too bad before the dual act of Kwasi and Truss who decided on the mini budget? Of course and without oversight they were urged on in this by misguided people who from their bunker thought that we could somehow spend our way out of this mess – wish I could run my household along the same lines and make debt just disappear. And now we have resorted to the blame game – blame the bank – blame andrew bailey – in fact blame anyone so long as the muck is not directed back at ourselves.

  27. acorn
    November 6, 2022

    How to fix the government’s borrowing costs (lifted from Neil Wilson at New Wayland because I couldn’t put it better myself; all links removed)

    “The government borrows at a price of its choosing. Here’s how.
    Government borrowing has no initial cost. Because of the way accounting functions, the payment system provides the funding. There would be no cost to the government’s borrowing if it chose to stop there. For every borrower, there is a corresponding saver. People choosing to save rather than spend causes borrowing. But if it is government policy to reward these savers, then it has a few options available.

    It could offer a savings product at National Savings with a variable interest rate.
    It could offer a £100 savings bond at National Savings with a fixed interest rate and a fixed term.
    It could offer a £100 treasury gilt at the Debt Management Office with a fixed interest rate and a fixed term.

    Note how the last two items are the same, showing that there is no need for the Debt Management Office.

    National Savings could do it all. If pension funds had used National Savings rather than gilts, they wouldn’t have had a problem. Now we know how to fix government borrowing costs. If National Savings issues a bond at 2%, then 2% is all anybody will get. Nobody can make the government pay more than it wants to. “

  28. Graham
    November 6, 2022

    So we have real inflation running at around 20%, as usual completely divorced from government claims, and the Bank of England think 4% is good enough. Well that ties in with their long record of total incompetence.
    This economic disaster was caused, deliberately, by lock downs and money printing. Of course provoking a war with Russia and sending special forces to actually sabotage Russian bridges, pipelines and ships doesn’t help. Import ten million military age immigrants to make sure life becomes intolerable for ordinary people. Add to that the ludicrous green agenda and one does not have to be a conspiracy theorist to conclude that this is all part of a plan. Wreck economies to allow increased power of the state and acquisition of real assets at knock down prices by those in control.

    1. Hope
      November 6, 2022

      +1

  29. Narrow Shoulders
    November 6, 2022

    Like a broken record I repeat, suspend the Workplace Pension Scheme.

    This gives workers an immediate 4% increase in take home pay (more than the cancelled 1% tax cut) and businesses 3% decrease in cashflow and costs. Further it saves the government (taxpayer) 1% tax rebates into the pension fund which is the same as scrapping the proposed 1% cut in tax from next April.

    Average wage rises are around 5%, plus the 4% saved from the Workplace pension scheme suspension and the gas and electricity support and many workers will not be worse off due to inflation. This buys time for the interest rate increases to work their way through.

    1. jerry
      November 6, 2022

      @NS; So you want our children and grandchildren to bailout underfunded pension scheme in the years to come?!

      If we are going top mortgage our children and grandchildren (to an unknown amount) then surely far better to fund known cost infrastructure assets that they will also benefit from, in much the same way as the USA i8s still benefiting from Roosevelt’s “New Deal” to this day.

      1. Narrow Shoulders
        November 6, 2022

        Why would that be the case Jerry it is a defined contribution scheme not a defined benefit one.

    2. IanT
      November 6, 2022

      it’s never a good idea to put off saving for the future NS – and it would be a big mistake for anyone to assume that they will be able to live off the State Pension. So start early and keep on saving. It’s far too late to realise that you’re not going to have enough retirement income when you are sixty!

      1. Narrow Shoulders
        November 6, 2022

        The Workplace pension scheme will deliver the same tiny pension as the the state pension scheme Ian. A two year sabbatical will make little difference

        1. jerry
          November 7, 2022

          @NS; “The Workplace pension scheme will deliver the same tiny pension”

          Your idea, like the Workplace scheme, is pointless then and for many having all the same problems as with the existing NICs funded scheme, resulting in the same means-tested State top-up benefits needing paid to future pensioners. The smaller ones end pension will be surely all the more reason to maximize the amount paid in?

    3. Lifelogic
      November 7, 2022

      +1

  30. Sir Joe Soap
    November 6, 2022

    Yes a final figure of 5-6% rates hiking to 4-4.5% now and again another 1% if no progress is made on inflation in 2 months. Combine that with a £20k tax free and NI free earnings rate at the lower end, suspend HS2 indefinitely and cut NHS bureaucracy 50% now ready to sell the whole show off to Google etc. Purge local councils and govt departments of any role with diversity in title.

    Your energy support ideas about right.

    Change the 55% pension tax/lifetime allowance rules by allowing contributions above the lifetime allowance which must be taken by age 75 or lost, to encourage work now, pay income tax or lose later.

    Aim to level up so that non-dom rules paying max £30K income tax applies to everyone with substantial investment in UK assets.

  31. Jazz
    November 6, 2022

    It has got to the point where it is now obvious that the Govt. believes that they own all our salaries and earnings and will decide how much we can keep.

    It’s horrendous.

  32. Narrow Shoulders
    November 6, 2022

    Completely off topic for which I apologise but are the reservoirs full?

    If they are how much additional rainfall is going uncollected for next Summer?

    Reply Im on the case and trying to get some sensible response on filling them

    1. Old Albion
      November 6, 2022

      I recently contacted my water supplier (SE Water) and pointed out this whole region is now totally sodden. Then went on to ask has the drought order been lifted yet. The answer, NO …………

      1. Shirley M
        November 6, 2022

        Too many leaks that go unrepaired. It is much easier to ration what water does get through, they still get paid the full amount even when water is rationed, and no repair bills.

    2. jerry
      November 6, 2022

      @NS (and JR reply); The issue is not so much filling the reservoirs we have but not being able to fill what we either no longer have or those that never got built, because of the under funding since privatization of the water industry. Many the very same problems are now re-affecting our utilities, not just water, that caused most to be nationalized in the first place, but then accountant always know better than those in the industry who get their hands dirty…

  33. Narrow Shoulders
    November 6, 2022

    Lib Dems now asking for £300 a month for the Home owner mortgage CRISIS!

    Whatever happened to sensible choices and personal responsibility?

    1. glen cullen
      November 6, 2022

      What CRISIS – if we can afford £150bn on HS2, £22bn on rebuilding Parliament, £30bn to decarbonise public buildings, £5bn subsidy for off shore wind farms 2020, £2bn for cycle lanes that no one users and £10m a day for illegal economic migrants …there isn’t a money crisis

      1. Shirley M
        November 6, 2022

        + many – the government prefers to waste OUR money on non essentials and not just non-essentials, but DAMAGING non-essentials in most cases.

        1. Timaction
          November 6, 2022

          …..and £7 million a day on criminal illegal aliens and rising.

      2. Mickey Taking
        November 6, 2022

        but there is a brains crisis in successive Cabinets.

  34. jerry
    November 6, 2022

    “The Kwarteng tax and spend package did go too far, especially the energy support which was costed at more than twice the tax cuts.”

    The problem wasn’t the energy support package but the tax cuts, the markets understand the need for the energy support package, they understand it because they know without such a broad scheme many more energy supply companies (both infrastructure and billing) will likely fail when customers debts go unpaid. The package might be dressed up as support for the end-user customer but at its heart is disguised direct support for the private energy companies (and investors), the only other alternative being (full or part) renationalization of the sector.

    “They should not impose new taxes, but promote faster growth and more enterprise.”

    Didn’t Liz Truss try that approach?…

    As for your last paragraph, yet another attempted diversionary dig at the BoE, it wont work Sir John, everyone and their dogs, bar your dotting posse who hang on your every word, know economic policy is set in Downing Street, not Threadneedle Street. The economic brakes came on hard with that “Kami-Kwasi” budget and the necessary screeching U-turns that followed as the markets gave their judgement. The errant policies might have gone but the effects, that the BoE now need to deal with, have not.

    Time to end the farce of the supposed BoE independence, a Govt should not be able to wreak havoc on the people and then pass blame on to the Central bank.

  35. Ian B
    November 6, 2022

    There isn’t an area were Taxpayer Money is being spent that shouldn’t be with out scrutiny and accountability. It is not hard to suggest the Chancellor can make all the money he needs from a ‘proper’ look at those that he gives ‘our’ money to.

    From today’s Telegraph. “Mandarins have been criticised for spending almost £500,000 on civil service subscriptions to “mindfulness” apps which offer users bedtime stories read by celebrities.” – The BIG point it wasn’t their money to spend it was ours!

    From Guido. “Every few months the NHS runs into a serious logistical problem. Not that there’s now an unprecedented waiting list. Not that its budget is the same size as the entire GDP of Greece. No, the problem is it doesn’t have enough ‘Equality, Diversity and Inclusion’ managers, collecting £60,000+ salaries at the taxpayer’s expense,“ but no matching number of Clinical Staff – The extra Taxpayer Money ‘Our Money’ is wasted on Managerial Empire building while all the time ignoring why they get Taxpayer Money.

    You could go on and on. The PM & Chancellor are so Socialist they think our money is theirs and that by delving deeper into our wallets is their first duty. Being responsible adults with the power invested in them by ‘us’ and extracting the greatest value for money like the rest of us do daily is not the function of their WEF dreams.

    Where is the Conservative Party, the party of good responsible Governance, the party of freedoms and of choice?

    1. jerry
      November 6, 2022

      @Ian B; “The BIG point it wasn’t their money to spend it was ours!”

      Nonsense, it is no longer “our” [the taxpayers] money!

      If I were to enter a lawful translation with you, meaning I had to pay you a sum of money, who gets to choose what that money is then spent on, you or I – why do you think tax receipts to HMT are different? Yours is the same argument that CND contested through the courts in the 1980s, when they argued for the ability to instruct govt how to spend ‘their’ taxes (not on nuclear weapons in other words…), the courts -thankfully- threw their case out.

      “From Guido. Every few months the NHS runs into a serious logistical problem ..//..”

      Indeed, I agree with Guido, but not their conclusions; the modern NHS has been an utter failure since the creation of those wretched internal markets and Area Trusts, nothing but gold plated pyramid building, with each internal dept or Trust needing its own buildings and layers of management (often paid for at the going commercial rate), and then of course there are all the over priced contracts with the private sector, that were run and staffed directly from within the then DHSS budget, from cleaning and maintenance to PFI funded buildings, the NHS has even become (overly) reliant on expensive agency nursing…

  36. Ex-Tory
    November 6, 2022

    Here’s a suggestion as to how the so-called Conservatives might win the next election.

    The government could be honest about its policies and say what most of us on this site know anyway, namely that its policies are to discourage business and enterprise with its huge corporation tax rise and more regulation such as the pointless “Making Tax Digital”, and to abandon its commitment to a share owning democracy with its recent and continual dividend tax hikes and non-indexation of CGT.

    This show of honesty could attract many Labour voters without the need for any policy change, while retaining its Conservative supporters who, reluctantly, have nowhere else to go.

  37. No Longer Anonymous
    November 6, 2022

    Nail on head, Hope.

  38. graham1946
    November 6, 2022

    Swimming pools and big houses. How exactly do you determine that or their value? Another expensive survey?

    Surely income is the thing, the Inland Revenue know about the last penny that most people in the country get and that will leave a much smaller number of shysters who evade or avoid the tax man to chase up. It will still be expensive of course and if it moves at the snail’s pace of asylum claim enquiries, we’ll all be dead and in pauper’s graves before that comes out. Put the energy help under tax and move the basic allowance up to say 20 grand to avoid the poor being hit. Of course we will get the opposite – the poor will pay for the errors of the rich in charge with frozen allowances and pensions again and our ‘caring’ Tories will cheer to the echo.

    Reply NO. People pay market price for all energy over a subsidised power allowance.

    1. graham1946
      November 6, 2022

      Reply to reply.
      As I thought, you are ok with frozen allowances and pensions.

  39. glen cullen
    November 6, 2022

    Don’t worry about the economic climate …Sunak is going to buy & build more foreign wind-turbines and he wants to do it faster than Boris

  40. Nigl
    November 6, 2022

    Typically disingenuous spinning a massive attack on the filthy rich.

    Garden lights are low voltage and cost pennies and how many heated pools are there. Not as many as the vast numbers put into energy poverty by your failed policies and now the tens if millions of prudent savers/pension funds getting reduced Dividends because of increases in Corporation tax and then individually.

    The losses through Covid fraud were so high and totally ignored that Lord Askew resigned, any civil servants fired, of course not, let’s make the pensioners pay, Home Office not fit, umpteen billions on Illegals, 5 billion on useless tanks and umpteen other overspent defence projects, JRM promised reductions in numbers of Civil Servants, any gone? Of course not. HS2 an economic white elephant.

    And all you can come up with us garden lights and swimming pools. I guess the energy Stasi will be out in force identifying those households trying to alleviate the dark clouds of Tory failure with Christmas lights so they too can be made to pay.

    Reply Try reading what I wrote. The idea is to let everyone have a basic amount of subsidised energy and to charge market price for the extra whatever it is used for. No stasi.

    1. Lifelogic
      November 6, 2022

      Indeed a basic amount a cheap rate for all with little or no standing charge is the way to go market rates for everything after that. This so as to keep an incentive to save energy and too match supply and demand.

      Then again market rates without all the mad market rigging and net zero taxes could be quite low anyway.

    2. graham1946
      November 6, 2022

      Reply to reply

      How do you work out what is a reasonable basic amount of subsidised energy? Every house is different, every bit of insulation is different – some have none at all, especially rent payers who have rapacious landlords. What about housebound people who use more than fit people who are at work all day? What about people who have medical devices on 24/7? Tax is surely much easier than trying to work out all the exceptions.

      1. Dave Andrews
        November 6, 2022

        John’s suggestion seems very sensible to me. The answer to poor insulation is better insulation, not wasting more energy. I take your point about the housebound, so perhaps there could be an extra allowance for that.

        1. graham1946
          November 7, 2022

          And if landlords don’t do it? I can take you to streets in East London where there are houses without insulation or heating of any kind and the residents rely on electric heaters and mobile gas heaters which are very expensive to run. Many are damp. All are cold. A well insulated and heated house in a leafy suburb is not the same animal at all. Why let the uber rich have the same allowance as the poor? That seems typical Tory to me.

        2. Mickey Taking
          November 7, 2022

          A hell of a lot of older people struggling to survive, living in older homes have no money to do significant insulating even if realistic to try.

  41. Ian B
    November 6, 2022

    “Why make the downturn worse?”
    Everything these Children do shows we need an adult in the room. The conspiracy theory that gets turned into reality each day the World Economic Forums orders to our Government that are obeyed, show these people lack sensibility and maturity, to think.
    The Net Zero religion, why and how? Were is the funding – should always funding first!
    Being under the control of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) All laws that are not under the Democratic Control of the people, make, amend and repeal, are control by external Dictators. ECHR is not compatible with a Free Sovereign Democracy. The World outside of the Westminster bubble would not stand for it.
    The list goes on.
    Governments can have aspirations, can have beliefs and choose directions chosen by the will of their electorate. That’s the Point Democratic responsibly by grown ups. To fulfill a wish list you have to ensure your own house is in order, then first and foremost have a path that creates the wealth to fund these aspirations. Just a Tax scenario is the Socialist path to perpetual and permanent decline.

  42. Roy Grainger
    November 6, 2022

    Growth and tax cuts as goals are now forever branded as Trussonomics and Sunak/Hunt will avoid both. Maybe you can do a post analysing Labour’s ideas for investment – they strike me as more growth-oriented than anything Sunak has proposed.

  43. Bert Young
    November 6, 2022

    Truss and Kwarteng jumped too soon and corrections were inevitable . Sunak acted and our economic position has become more internationally acceptable . I don’t like how the result stands but tampering around the edges now will not help very much . Stable leadership is now essential .

    1. Ian B
      November 6, 2022

      @Bert Young – that’s a theory of sorts as it plays to the script of orthodoxy. The downfall is Sunak and Hunt have not created an environment to create the wealth to pay for the debts Rishi and Boris have created. Those that are happy with the situation are those same entities that the last thing they want is a competitive UK. i.e. screwing the UK good having to compete bad.

    2. BOF
      November 6, 2022

      ‘Stable leadership’ has an entirely different meaning in the socialist world of Sunak and Hunt to the conservative world of most contributors on this site.

  44. Ian B
    November 6, 2022

    Sir John
    Reading all the comments on your ‘Diary’ over the last week or so it would appear that the main theme coming from the contributors is the loss of the Conservative Party, and the meaning of the Conservative movement.
    The Conservative Party has been hijacked by those that are controlled outside of their Constituents. Those that don’t believe in freedoms of the People, Democracy, the rule of law, in fact they put the principles of State Authoritarianism and Socialism is first and foremost. They ignore the principles and reasoning of wealth creation and enterprise.
    In the implied words of comrade Corbyn ‘you have to first destroy society, so you can build it in your own image’ Coincidentally that is the same doctrine promoted elsewhere as the ‘Great Reset’ by the WEF and published on their website, “reimagine, and reset our world” – Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum.
    That is the Doctrine now taken up by those that have hijacked the Conservative Party.

    1. BOF
      November 6, 2022

      Yes, Ian B, and behind those slogans are the evil words of Karl Marx, ‘the end justifies the means’.

      1. hefner
        November 6, 2022

        Niccolo Machiavelli
        (The Prince, ch. 18, 1532), not Marx.

        1. Peter2
          November 7, 2022

          Yet it’s been taken by Marxists in the concept of Consequentialism heffy.
          So a definite connection.

      2. Mickey Taking
        November 7, 2022

        possibly the best one – -‘Democracy is the road to socialism’.

  45. Javelin
    November 6, 2022

    The local WhatsApp group in Elmbridge is reporting a massive surge is people trying to steal luxury cars. Any idea why?

    1. Mickey Taking
      November 6, 2022

      envy, quick profit on parts acquired, demand from Arab countries etc.?

  46. Stephen Reay
    November 6, 2022

    You say the BoE should raise the base rate even higher if it brings inflation down, it wasn’t so long ago that you were against rate risers saying that we would all suffer. What has changed you point of view?

  47. Fedupsoutherner
    November 6, 2022

    Richard Tice is interviewing Charles Mcallister who works in the onshore oil and gas industry. He says the rules on sisemic tremors are far stricter than that of any other industry involved in mining or drilling. The construction industry doesn’t have half the rules or the mining industry for lithium which have mines all over the country. I have accidentally found Richard Tice on Talk TV this morning. Why can’t our politicians have half the common sense that this man has? Tice is head of the Reform party. He gets my vote.

  48. Stephen Reay
    November 6, 2022

    Sunaks offer to help people with mortgages is naive, to single out people with mortgages is wrong. Where do you draw the line. Why not help renters and so on, or even second home owners, god forbid.

  49. forthurst
    November 6, 2022

    Setting interests rates too low then trying to manipulate them upwards by selling bonds at a loss seems an odd way of proceeding especially as it forces losses on pension funds as well as the Treasury. Is this called quantitative tightening or just throwing money away?

  50. Ian B
    November 6, 2022

    The big problem the Conservative Party has as the lack of safety security concerns within its ranks.

    Gavin Williamson sends a private and secure message to the former chief whip Wendy Morton, and it gets leaked to the press.

    Suella Braverman forgets to send a secure message to her own contacts and it still gets leaked to the press.

    Government employees clearly sort out to brief the media in their fight with Kwasi & Liz for taking a different track to their Socialist thinking.

    The answer surely is to come down very, very hard on the ‘leakers’(its not hard to track & trace) or make all communications made by those in the employ of the ‘taxpayer’ fully open to the scrutiny of the taxpayer.

  51. Original Richard
    November 6, 2022

    Why make the downturn worse?

    I think the answer can be found by listening to Greta Thunberg’s speech 30/10/2022 at the London South Bank Centre :

    https://youtu.be/ropBOwPvmLM?t=1513

    “We are never going back to normal again [after the pandemic] because normal was already a crisis. What we refer to as “normal” is an extreme system built on exploitation of people and planet. It is a system defined by colonialism, imperialism, oppression and genocide by the so-called global North to accumulate wealth that still shapes our current world order”

    CAGW/Net Zero is a communist plot to destroy the West’s economy by scaring the populations into falsely transitioning from abundant, affordable, reliable energy (fossil fuel or nuclear) to meagre, expensive and intermittent renewables.

    There is no climate crisis. Check the history of global weather. Don’t rely on the BBC. Climate has always been changing. Since we exited the most recent ice age just 11,000 years ago (with no anthropogenic CO2 emissions to warm the planet) the average global temperature has been 2 degrees higher than today and 1 degree lower.

    CO2 is not a pollutant. It is necessary for all life on earth and needs in fact to be higher to optimise plant growth and prevent famines. But that is why they have declared war on CO2.

    BTW 90% of the world’s population live in the Northern Hemisphere.

    1. Timaction
      November 6, 2022

      CO2 is 0.04% of the atmosphere. It has been calculated that 3% of that total is man made. They think that this tiny number is causing a climate crisis. They also believe in the tooth fairy, unicorns and that money grows on trees. Let us pray.

      1. Original Richard
        November 6, 2022

        Timaction :

        Yes, how can an increase from 3 molecules of CO2 per 10,000 in the atmosphere (280 ppm) to 4 molecules per 10,000 (400 ppm) cause climate breakdown?

        There is ridiculous talk, including from our own politicians, that the UK, should be paying reparations to poorer countries for our historical emissions of CO2 (historical because our politicians have de-industrialised our country so that we now emit just 1% of the total global CO2 emissions).

        In fact the world should be very grateful we started the Industrial Revolution as :
        1) It brought wealth to millions and reduced poverty for billions around the world.
        2) The CO2 emissions raised the level of CO2 in the atmosphere which has promoted plant growth and decreased famines.

        If the whole planet was to implement net zero CO2 emissions, then unless the volcanoes emitted sufficient CO2 into the atmosphere the CO2 sequestered by shelled marine animals would cause the atmospheric CO2 to drop below the 150 ppm below which plants cannot survive and all life on earth would be extinguished.

        1. Mickey Taking
          November 7, 2022

          I’d like to hear how much China, India, Brazil, USA, Indonesia, Germany …..will agree to pay before UK offers anything.

  52. Mickey Taking
    November 6, 2022

    Cabinet Office minister and South Staffordshire MP Sir Gavin Williamson is facing an investigation over a series of abusive and threatening messages reportedly sent to the then Tory chief whip complaining he had been excluded from the Queen’s funeral. Sir Gavin, who was a backbencher at the time, accused Wendy Morton of using the death of the monarch to “punish” senior MPs who were out of favour with Liz Truss’s government.
    The exchange of messages, obtained by The Sunday Times, concluded with him saying: “Well let’s see how many more times you **** us all over. There is a price for everything.”
    The paper said the then party chairman, Sir Jake Berry, informed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak the day before he entered No 10 that Ms Morton had submitted a formal complaint to the party about Sir Gavin’s conduct.
    [just the sort of behaviour expected from a Knight of the Realm to a Chief Whip].
    Come on Sunak …..sack him – show some balls.

    1. IanB
      November 6, 2022

      @mickey taking, and what about the vindictive individual that leeked these secure messages. The conservative party at its worst

      1. Bloke
        November 7, 2022

        IanB:
        Shedding light on truth appears vindictive only because the texts received were aggressive.

      2. Mickey Taking
        November 7, 2022

        You would rather messages of this distasteful tone be kept quiet? Even Mr Johnson’s f*** the City needed to be public – we need to know about the gutter type behaviour.

    2. Bloke
      November 6, 2022

      Knighthood confers recognition of highest quality standards. Transcripts of Gavin Williamson’s texts indicate that his title devalues the currency and should be withdrawn. Minister without Portfolio is another position in which such conduct should result in dismissal. The worst he could say to Russia in reaction to their Salisbury poisoning was to shut up and go away, yet his texts reveal much harsher words to his female colleague.

  53. Lukas
    November 6, 2022

    Using interest rates as a dampener for national and domestic borrowing is OK and correct as far as it goes but higher interest rates should be applied to loans only going forward ie. loans that people intend to take out, and not to people and businesses who have already transacted deals and made agreements. Why do the banks have the right to not discriminate between what has already been agreed and signed up to from what might be agreed into the future. It doesn’t make sense all of this suffering for people struggling with paying mortgages etc when dampening down borrowing by using higher interest rates going forward will achieve the same thing – 7Govt and the ‘bank’ want to stop people borrowing more or else if they want to borrow then they have to pay higher interest rates at the rate pertaining and that is the point – what has the future got to do with the past? or am I missing something?

  54. Iain Gill
    November 6, 2022

    wtf have direct trains from Newcastle to Liverpool been stopped? not even on the timetable?
    took this train lots in the past.
    have we become such a backward nation that we cannot even link our major cities?
    dont worry keep wasting money on HS2

  55. Keith Collyer
    November 6, 2022

    Raising the BoE interest rate to attack inflation is the right thing to do if the causes of inflation are due to people having too much money. This is clearly not the case in the UK, so raising rates won’t work.
    I agree with your assessment on energy prices – those who have multiple large houses and heated pools should not be subsidised by the rest of us. Of course, increased support for insulation would reduce energy demands relatively quickly. And we would reduce the cost of energy supply by investing in renewables. Allowing suppliers to charge what they want rather than being tied to wholesale gas prices would also help.
    How do you propose we recruit more doctors and nurses without increasing spending? Not just on pay, but also on medical infrastructure.
    It’s pretty clear that Keynes was right and Hayek, Freeman, et al were wrong. We need to increase government spending. We knew Truss couldn’t be trusted when she said you can’t spend your way out of a recession when historically that is the only thing that has worked.

  56. IanB
    November 6, 2022

    That Andrew Bailey guy loves the headlines. From the MsM, “Bank of England risks a repeat of mini-Budget bond markets chaos, warn City traders”
    Guiding us over the cliff – ‘not me’ just everyone else

  57. mancunius
    November 6, 2022

    “I think they should limit the subsidised energy by volume”. That would personally singletons who use amounts well within the alloted monthly cost subsidy, but what about families with children, e.g. living in 19c or early 20c who cannot effectively insulate, and cannot help using more than a bare minium?
    Nor would such a volume cap on cost subsidy help our limited energy resources, as there are many with deep pockets who can afford to have the heating and air-con full on 24/7 and illuminate their spacious back gardens as well. The only way of avoiding power cuts was to have ensured UK-homeland energy security – e.g. nuclear-powered energy. That ship has sailed, thanks to woke politicians and those too weak to oppose them.

  58. Shirley M
    November 6, 2022

    “Failed migrants are entitled to £3000 if they meet certain conditions if they agree to leave Britain.”

    Is this true? What are the ‘certain conditions’? The government do love to throw our money at anyone but Brits, don’t they? £1 MILLION given to 300 failed applicants because they AGREED to go home. Why do we need their permission, and why do we need to pay them to leave? I assume we provide free transport!

    I keep thinking this government cannot get worse, but they regularly prove me wrong! I suppose I am expected to applaud getting rid of 300 at the knock down cost of £1 million. How many more thousands to go? Then again, most of them gain refugee status even when they are NOT refugees. Any excuse for mass immigration.

    1. Mickey Taking
      November 7, 2022

      just enough to pay the gangs for another trip over the Channel!

  59. Derek Henry
    November 6, 2022

    Hi John,

    Keep fighting the good fight. Fight for Brexit.

    It is now very clear with Remainers back in charge ( against the wishes of many Tory voters ) they have defaulted back to EU fiscal rules.

    1. By raising taxes and implementing spending cuts they are going after the budget deficit which is the non government sector surplus . Therefore, our savings. They are going to try and reduce how much we save. Our spending power because of the inflation.

    The typical arguments are at play: debt is not financially sustainable, crowding out effect, deficit spending is inflationary, more debt now means more taxes or less spending later because the debt needs to be repaid.

    ALL THE THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THESE are for Eurozone countries and who use the Euro. Countries that DO have to raise taxes or borrow to spend, as they gave up their sovereignty and no longer issue their own currency.

    There are many problems with acting as if we use the Euro instead of the Pound.

    The fiscal position of the government is mostly a REACTIVE variable because of automatic stabilisers. That is, the government has very limited control over its finances. What actually drives the fiscal position of the government is the desire of other sectors of the economy to be in surplus and that is bet save.

    The UK domestic private sector and the rest of the world want to be in surplus ( net save ) so the government must be in deficit. The government is almost always in deficit and if it is not another sector must be in deficit. Not everyone can record a surplus.

    Government issues the currency, it has no solvency or liquidity concerns like any other part of the economy. It does not have to balance its books and doing so actually hurts other sectors because their income falls(higher taxes and lower government spending= lower households and businesses income)

    Osborne already found this truth out during Austerity (1) as he tried to run budget surpluses ( which does not give more money for the Govt to spend, as they issue the Damn thing). Osborne failed as he tried to push and hurt other sectors to run a deficit. Why Clinton’s budget surpluses caused a recession in the US.

    2. The BOE is making inflation worse and not fighting it at all and hurting the value of the £.

    High debt/gdp where rate hikes of 4% add to demand and inflation via the interest income channel = upward spiral without end.

    Deficit spending on rate hikes is supporting the growth that’s triggering the rate hikes. It is feeding itself.

    Deficit spending bottomed at an historically sufficient level to support growth, and is now proactively rising, helped in part by increased net interest expense from rate hikes (that dominate propensities to consume interest income with 100%+ debt/gdp).

    Increased cost of credit faced by businesses just pass the cost into consumers via higher prices.

    Until the BOE finally breaks something witch is normally the housing market.

    So why are we once again acting as if we use the Euro and why hasn’t Bailey been sacked ? Why have Remainers been allowed to take back control ?

  60. Peter2
    November 6, 2022

    Today’s site award goes to Jerry for his numerous contrary posts today.
    Whatever opinion you have Jerry will come on and argue the opposite.
    Quiet day Jezza?

    1. jerry
      November 7, 2022

      @P2; “Whatever opinion you have Jerry will come on and argue the opposite.”

      Whatever! Our moderator appears happy to host both debate and argument, even when he is being criticized, thus whatever YOUR problem is P2 it is yours alone, no one else has a problem.

      1. Peter2
        November 7, 2022

        Well it’s at least got you to your record 30 posts for one day
        So may I offer you a well done Jerry.

  61. XY
    November 7, 2022

    “They should have hiked to 3.75% or 4% if they think that necessary”

    Errr… probably the most irresponsible thing I’ve heard you say. People on tracker mortgages, for example?

    We were told interest rates, when they rose, would do so gradually – and only to a new norm of 3%. That gives people time to adjust their financial affairs – this nonsense we’re seeing now does the exact opposite, it throws a bunch of people to the wolves.

    These people running the country are either totally incompetent or trying to trash the economy to keep us in lockstep with the failing EU. Or both.

  62. alastair harris
    November 7, 2022

    It is interesting to hear views and thoughts on the Truss administration, particularly given how many daggers it drew against her. Personally I didn’t think her proposed intervention on domestic energy prices was a good idea, but it was no worse than many of the interventions we have seen since the inception of zero-carbon, and its resulting impacts on the cost of carbon based fuels.
    You certainly do offer a more considered view on the various activities of government, but I do think we need our political classes to understand that the current raft of policies, going back to Major, are not sustainable. We don’t need the NHS, but we do want a health system that offers us reasonable care and effective remedies. We don’t need state education, but we do want our children to have choice in an education system that offers them the prospects of a reasonable education. We voted to leave the EU so why are we still following many of its policy choices, and acting as if we are still members?
    And the real issue with zero carbon is that what it has meant is that we exported many jobs and made the rash decision that we could rely on electricity generated from solar and wind, and possibly tide. I know we accuse politicians of living on a different planet, but how many of your collleagues are even familiar with the characteristics of the British weather?

Comments are closed.