Written Answer from the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero

 

To ask the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, whether he has made an estimate of the additional grid capacity the UK will need in 10 years’ time to meet the increased demand for electricity and increased renewable supply. (160099)

Tabled on: 07 March 2023
Answer:

Graham Stuart:
Analysis set out in the Electricity Networks Strategic Framework[1], jointly published by BEIS and Ofgem, suggests grid capacity would need to increase to accommodate a peak electricity demand of between 85-90GW by 2033, up from around 60 GW in 2023.

[1]BEIS, 2022, Electricity networks strategic framework, Appendix 1: Electricity Networks Modelling, section 2.1, p. 12, figure 2, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electricity-networks-strategic-framework

The answer was submitted on 15 Mar 2023 at 14:42.

 

Comment

This is an insufficient answer. It implies limited roll out of electric vehicles and all electric heating systems. The Minister does not go into the issue of how much extra grid capacity is needed to take into account the heavy predominance of wind power from Scotland needing transport to the heavily populated parts of England, nor how much extra capacity is needed to handle switching from renewables to stand by fossil fuel power when the wind does not blow. There is little sign of sufficient investment in grid capacity or local network capacity to match the ambitions to switch large amounts of energy use away from gas, diesel, petrol to electricity. The bulk of our energy use today is fossil fuel dependent.

116 Comments

  1. Wanderer
    March 22, 2023

    Useful probing question. What it suggests to me is that (a) our Ministers are not good Managers and (b) our Civil Service is not up to the task either.

    After the next election we’ll have Labour/SDP Ministers and the same Civil Service.

    I’m tempted to sing the old “Things can only get better” election jangle, and try to laugh it off! Unfortunately though, the situation is dire. Our country has been failed by a largely mediocre and self-serving political class.

    1. Cuibono
      March 22, 2023

      ++100
      Spot on!
      I always think these answers = mind your own business!
      When a department is wholly focussed on delivering ā€œ legally bindingā€ Net Zero its scarcely going to bother about keeping us warm or mobile is it?
      Probably more concerned about its pronouns.

    2. jerry
      March 22, 2023

      @Wanderer; “Our country has been failed by a largely mediocre and self-serving political class.”

      Indeed, but who keeps voting for them and their core ideology, 43 years and counting almost…

      As for grid capacity, why blame the govt or civil service, grid capacity is in the hands of our hosts beloved private energy companies. The govt has published their roadmap towards ‘Net Zero’, it is for the energy companies to asses likely grid capacity come 2033 against that roadmap and invest accordingly.

      As for any future Labour govt, whilst they are likely to be even more zealous in their ‘Net Zero’ aims they are also far more likely to do what no Tory govt has done since a certain Minster stood up and announced he would intervene “before Breakfast, before Lunch and before Dinner” if needs-be.

      1. Mark
        March 22, 2023

        Grid capacity is in the hands of OFGEM, who set a permitted budget and rate of return for National Grid that they evaluate on a project by project basis. If it’s not authorised by OFGEM it doesn’t happen.

        1. jerry
          March 22, 2023

          @Mark; Nonsense, go read the Ofgem own (About Us) webpage for pity sake! Ofgem’s prime responsibility is as a consumer (service/price) protection regulator.

          Investment to ensure there is enough generating capacity is in the hand of the private companies, and such polices as laid down by government/parliament.

          “The government is responsible for setting the policy for the energy sector and proposing any changes to this statutory framework. We have a clear role to play to support policy issues such as decarbonisation and we need to operate within this framework. We do not direct overall policy in the sector. However, where we think there are important policy gaps that affect consumers, we can call this out.”

          1. Mark
            March 22, 2023

            Nonsense. Read the 2010 Energy Act, where consumer interest are subsumed and redefined as green interests. Then check out the revenue controls under RIIO

            https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/policy-and-regulatory-programmes/network-price-controls-2021-2028-riio-2

            You can find project by project approvals for the transmission grid here by selecting the relevant tab.

          2. jerry
            March 23, 2023

            @Mark; For pity sake, that page proves nothing! Ofgem is (at best) an end-user price regulator and a collector of industry performance data, they neither invest or set (government) policies. A toothless tiger in other words.

            Have you read the following webpage, note who are the actual regulators of the listed industry codes of practice, and the fact that appeals are (in effect) decided by Secretary of State (via legislation or SI);

            https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/industry-codes-and-standards

          3. graham1946
            March 23, 2023

            You may believe what they say, but all these regulators seem to be on the side of the industry they are ‘regulating’ against the interests of the public. They are mostly toothless and useless. Jobs for the boys seems to be the guiding factor and ‘don’t rock the boat.’

          4. Mark
            March 24, 2023

            The link you supplied is completely irrelevant to the issue of grid investment. It’s evident you are unfamiliar with how it operates. You seem to be unaware of the criticisms levelled by both Lords and Commons Select Committees of OFGEM’s performance, and of criticism within the electricity industry including from National Grid over its failure to approve adequate grid expansion.

            If OFGEM were really acting in consumer interests they would be advising that Net Zero plans imply massive and costly expansion of the grid a ongst other high cost items that call into question its viability as a policy. However it is run by a co-author of the Climate Change Act, who persistently sees consumer interest at the bottom of his priorities, way below protecting the interests of renewables generators. He us happy for them to be paid compensation for not being able to connect to the grid or to be curtailed, all at consumer expense

          5. jerry
            March 24, 2023

            @Mark; The industry has failed to invest to build enough capacity, whatever that generating capacity is, no one else; whilst govt policies on “green house gases” (including CO2) have been around since at least 1987 [1], three years before full privatization comenced, whilst “Renewable energy projects” became specific govt policy in the 1992 manifesto. Stop trying to suggest the industry has only recently been affected by ‘Green’ politics and polices, they’ve existed since before the industry was privatized.

            Ofgem, nor OFFER and Ofgas before them, should not need to exit, HMG should not have to set central investment polices, create SI’s etc; they do so because an unregulated industry fails in their own housekeeping.

            [1] The world’s resources of fossil fuels will come under increasing strain during
            the 21st century; so may the global environment if the build-up of carbon
            dioxide the so-called “greenhouse effect” significantly raises temperatures
            and changes climates.”
            ; Conservative manifesto, 1987.

          6. Mark
            March 24, 2023

            Jerry

            The government has chosen to believe in the Saudi Arabia of Wind nonsense. It has been forced to subsidise renewables extensively because they would not have been invested in under a normal market. At the same time it has belatedly started to realise that that its policies of taxing coal generation out of existence and aimed at following up on gas production, use and generation are leaving us with a precarious shortage of capacity that operates whatever the weather. So it tries to micromanage the market with capacity auctions where it decides in a manner that Soviet planners would have known how much capacity it will procure, only to get the answer wrong. It is not market failure, but government failure that is responsible, and that has been going on ever since the first push for renewables 20 years ago. A genuinely free market would have delivered capacity, but if you threaten capacity with closure people are not going to invest, and if you force investment in uneconomic alternatives people are going to get nervous about how long the subsidies can be afforded.

            You are not correct about the timing of renewables. After 1992, gas use increased sharply when it was allowed to compete fully for electric supply, replacing oil and coal in response to government policy to free the market: there was no push for renewables which were free to compete if they were viable. The first year in which wind generation exceeded 1 TWh (well under half a percent of supply) was 2002, and solar not until 2012. Nuclear output peaked in 1998, with the last new station Sizewell up to full capacity.

          7. jerry
            March 26, 2023

            @Mark; I might have accepted what you say had the very sames failings that exist today not also existed 25-30 years ago. Privatization was supposed to solve the problems, not entrench, amplify them.

            As for a date on renewable policy, I was citing the 1992 Tory manifesto, I can’t give a page No. but it’s the 5th paragraph on, in the “Energy” section;

            “We have invested in clean coal technology to safeguard the environment.
            Renewable energy projects have received unprecedented support. North Sea
            oil and gas are enjoying a record expansion thanks to our policies of
            deregulation and low taxation. [..//..] We will maintain a guaranteed market for renewable energy projects and fluid research in this area.”

    3. Anselm
      March 22, 2023

      Be very careful. Sir Keir Starmer is carrying a lot of supporters, some of who are XR, the Greens, possible even the SNP, University striking lecturers, Trades Unions of all stripes, so called anti racists, sexists and homophobes… And all are utterly woke and, of course, anti Fascist. they do not resonate with many people north of Watford/aka the working class/gammon.
      Rishi Sunak is a wise man. He waited to suss out the major problems, carefully listed them, and is now working slowly towards fixing them. Suella Braverman looks to be a very effective Home Secretary. James Cleverley is fixing a treaty with Kazakhstan. Relations with Europe are now cordial again as the government works slowly towards a Northern Ireland settlement. As a man who has had a first class international education at Goldman Sachs, he has stabilized the pound at ā‚¬1.13.
      People notice these things.

      1. hefner
        March 22, 2023

        So you say all these dreaded people are anti-fascist. Do you mean many people north of Watford are if not pro-fascist at least neutral about it? You might want to think a bit more before you write.

      2. Lynn Atkinson
        March 22, 2023

        Oh people are noticing and we will see how much they appreciate what they notice in May. Iā€™m thinking Sunak has an even chance of beating Mrs Mays low of 10%.

        1. Ashley
          March 22, 2023

          He certainly deserves to. The Windsor Frame Work is an appalling disaster as is his 10%+ inflation (caused by his money printing & net zero energy policy), lockdown and vast waste as Chancellor. Then we have his huge & moronic tax increases, the net zero lunacy, the choice of the dire Hunt as Chancellor, failing to cancel HS2ā€¦ Sunak even boasted to the house today (in answer to a question from Sir Jeremy Wright) ā€œthe fantastic roll out of the Covid Vaccines across the UKā€

          Vaccines that clearly caused vast net harm (on average) especially for the young. This is now certain but even then it was surely gross negligence to vaccinate people & certainly those under about 60 who were never at any sig. risk that justified a risky vaccine. Circa 1 in 800 seriously injured (some dead) per jab Sunak! Have you not even looked at the figures?

          1. Lynn Atkinson
            March 22, 2023

            Yes you are right, sadly. And you have not even mentioned taking on Russia and China for the hell of it and as we have nothing but pop guns and nukes ā€¦
            Iā€™m afraid itā€™s existential. Letā€™s hope for the Conservative Party rather than the U.K. itself.
            Iā€™m praying that the political giants like JR do NOT leave us floundering at the mercy of people like Farage. We need the party to split, for the dead wood to go their way and for us to have a capitalist, democratic, honest party that we can all join, fund and for which we can fight.

          2. Lynn Atkinson
            March 22, 2023

            Of course the BOE are still selling bonds at a huge loss to stoke inflation – looks like its working.

          3. jerry
            March 23, 2023

            @Ashley; Funny how other countries, who also engaged in QE, lockddown, have far more costly Net Zero targets and have been affected by the oil/gas price shock due to Putin’s war against Ukraine, almost all are doing better than the UK, with lower inflation, higher productivity. What they do not have is a dogmatic core of right wing voters who are seemingly still locked into the problem of 40 years ago that stymie change, (nor have these countries undergone a disruptive Brexit…).

            “Vaccines that clearly caused vast net harm (on average) especially for the young.Ā£”

            So were are all these victims, and if they do exist how the cause was the vaccine, pr9ove they had not caught Covid?

          4. Mark
            March 24, 2023

            Jerry, you seem to be unaware of the recent Dutch election or the riots across France, or the unpopularity of the German Greens, or the new Swedish government, or the Italian government of Meloni, or what is happening in the Visegrad countries.

          5. jerry
            March 26, 2023

            @Mark; Your point being what, that the UK doesn’t also have similar social issues, or unpopular politicos – if so, try pulling the other one!

      3. Hat man
        March 22, 2023

        Anselm, I didn’t know a treaty with far-away Kazakhstan was one of Sunak’s five pledges.

        Nor do I recall he pledged his government to supply Ukraine with a type of ammunition responsible for cancers and children with birth defects. Shameful.

      4. Paul Cuthbertson
        March 23, 2023

        Anslem – Kazakhstan is as corrupt as the EU and Sunak is the globalist puppet pushing WEF Agenda.

  2. Mark B
    March 22, 2023

    Good morning.

    But, Sir John we will all be living in 15 minute cities and confined to our homes. We won’t need, let alone be able to afford, BEV’s.

    Problem solved !

    šŸ˜‰

    1. Sharon
      March 22, 2023

      Mark B
      My sarcastic thoughts too!!

    2. Ian wragg
      March 22, 2023

      Up from 60gw in 2023
      Absolute rubbish
      We can barely sustain 45gw and that’s reliant on imports
      Several times over the cold spells we have been near the wire and running the filthy STOR generators which cancel out any carbon savings
      Perhaps you could table a question as to how many times they’ve been used and what they cost to the consumer
      Very profitable for the owners, a bir like windmills

      1. Mark
        March 22, 2023

        I note that National Grid publishes its data excluding any contribution from fossil fuelled embedded generation – smaller gas generators and diesels not connected to the high voltage network.

        1. jerry
          March 22, 2023

          @Mark; If you mean private stand-by generation, how can National Grid include them, after all when such capacity is available it’s usual -for safety reasons- to disconnect it and the private grid it supplies from the national grid so as not to back-feed into possibly a damaged/dangerous grid.

          1. Mark
            March 22, 2023

            National Grid manages to include estimates for everything else. Sample:

            On Monday #gas generated 41.8% of GB electricity followed by wind 26.8%, nuclear 12.4%, imports 11.1%, biomass 4.3%, hydro 2.1%, solar 1.5%, coal 0.0%, coal 0.0% *excl. non-renewable distributed generation

            which means they overstate the share of renewables.

          2. jerry
            March 23, 2023

            @Mark; How can National Grid even estimate what they do not know about! Unlike with renewables or any other feed-in providers. The only way of measuring would be via the total demand in a distribution area, even if they do know (via real time smart metering) which customers have reduced or stopped drawing power from the national grid, how will they know WHY that has occurred and if a fossil fueled generator is in use?

          3. Mark
            March 24, 2023

            National Grid estimate demand all the time based on the weather, day of week, time of day, whether interconnectors will flow one way or another, whether demand will be reduced by triad avoidance, etc. They make estimates about embedded renewable generation that they publish, despite no access to live metered data in the control room. They are keen to hide from public view their estimates of non renewable embedded generation, and what it effectively costs the rest of us which is probably a bigger scandal than fiddling the data on the share of renewables.

          4. jerry
            March 24, 2023

            @Mark; You do not seem to understand the difference between a feed-in generator and a stand-by generator, whilst most embedded renewable generation is designed to ‘feed-in’ excess capacity, hence the “feed-in tariff”, were both incoming and out-going ARE metered, often in real time. And how would National Grid even know of non feed-in embedded renewable generation capacity, just as they have no way of knowing about non feed-in diesel generators either!

          5. Mark
            March 24, 2023

            Jerry

            You do not understand that the Grid relies on estimates of what happens at the distribution level. That applies to both demand and generation. Demand estimation is remarkably accurate, and variations from forecast will be due mainly to variations in embedded supply of whatever origin. The economics for large customers on half hour metering and pricing are also easily predicted, and the largest self generators have to keep in touch with the grid control room in case they need grid supply.

            It is a matter of policy choice that National Grid choose to exclude reporting on their estimated generation. Imagine the headline if they had to admit the lights were only kept on due to a large chunk of the 6GW of embedded diesel generators springing into action. The numbers do get reported eventually in Energy Trends at quarterly resolution, which rather disguises the tricky situations around peak demand, since many of these generators will only be used to meet demand peaks or when grid supply is uncompetitive with diesel generation, so their average utilisation will not be high. The use of back-up generation is probably greater than it should be, but most power cuts are local in scope with supply restored to a majority of consumers by re-routing after a relatively short time. As yet, it is not a significant component of supply in terms of total energy.

          6. jerry
            March 26, 2023

            @Mark; For pity sake, how can National Grid estimate the use of a diesel generator that they do not even know exists, what its power rating is, single phase or three etc etc. At best all they know is that a customer is drawing less from the National grid but have no way of knowing why, have they closed down, are they shut whilst having new intake panel installed, off on annual holidays, or “off-grid” with their own generator?

            Go back and read your original comment in reply to Ian Wragg. You are asking for the impossible, and if they did as you asked you or others would brickbat them for making (crass) assumptions. Perhaps you simply asked the wrong question, rather than ‘All’ you meant only those fossil fueled generators that have contracts to supply National Grid, assuming there are any!

    3. Cuibono
      March 22, 2023

      +many
      Exactly!
      And horrifically within those prisons without walls we will, for the most part, be totally dependent on the council/govt. providing Drs, dentists shopsā€¦.within those areas. ( Having spent the last 40 years CLOSING THEM ALL DOWN).
      Oh no whoops, sorryā€¦it will all be onlineā€¦and that donā€™t take much leccy do it?
      Meanwhile big online merchants, supermarkets, fast food, Post Office and couriers are all nudging us towards NO DELIVERY. As in click and collect etc.

      1. a-tracy
        March 22, 2023

        Crickey I hope weā€™re not dependent on councils, or contained in our local 15 minute location, my local councillors concede money and power to the biggest city in our council, and the primary town nearby. The council houses were all sold off for under Ā£7500 each a brilliant deal for the HA yet all the council house roads are full of pot holes, the shops bought for buttons in the deal run down. I donā€™t mean an odd pot-hole I mean entire streets. A phenomenal amount of house building has taken place creating tonnes of extra rates over 34,000 people yet NO entertainment, even the pubs are closing now, no cinema, no theatre, (we used to have one). The houses are filling up because they are the only reasonably priced in the area, yet people soon learn how dependent they are on their cars. Big organisations donā€™t want to move out of London and relocate in places like this because there is nothing to do.

    4. Fedupsouthener
      March 22, 2023

      My thoughts exactly Mark. What better way of controlling us than insufficient energy to support the population. We are all equal but some will be more equal than others. You will own nothing (the chosen few will) and be happy. Joy of Joy’s.

      1. a-tracy
        March 22, 2023

        Well yes they can do anything they please because they can afford to ā€˜offsetā€™ with their money, have you ever heard anything so ridiculous.

  3. turboterrier
    March 22, 2023

    What these people do not seem to grasp is, becoming an electrically driven and totally reliant nation is that peak demands will last longer and there will be very little periods of reduced loading
    Not a good recipe when there is a very high dependency on intermittent power generation.
    The demand for back up grows proportionally and can only be available at a very high cost due to the plant required running on tickover to ensure no break in the supply. It all becomes a finely balanced equation.
    Nuclear production is not ideal for rapid response. In this brave New world they are heading for, the cost of constraint payments will be crippling.
    All this should have been sorted before the first renewables had been commissioned years ago.

    1. Donna
      March 22, 2023

      They will “manage demand” by switching people off. That’s the purpose of so-called SMART Meters. When you see the word smart in the context of a service, instead think “control.”

      A “smart motorway” is a controlled motorway – or at least that’s what they are supposed to be.
      A “smart meter” is controlled energy supply. The Energy Supplier, and ultimately the Government, is in control. Not you.

  4. Javelin
    March 22, 2023

    NetZero is just like pandemic. There is no warming, there is no climate emergency. Universities and battery technology based corporates drive the narrative and Universities are paid for by Chinese students. Feckless politicians are fooled or pressured into virtue signalling to gain political brownie points.

    The conspiracy theorists were spot on about the forces behind the covid pandemic and the Waitrose Marxists are now in denial it was predictable because that would mean they are none too bright. Just like NetZero.

    Now the conspiracy theorists have been saying for the past ten years that China and the BRICS intend to overthrow the West and again the sheeple are in denial. Websites have documented in great detail how the BRICS have set up alternative versions of Swift, or have subjugated countries with large loans, or outsourced their industries, or just simple short term corporate greed encouraging millions of migrants meaning conscription or war is impossible.

    The same sociopathic Western politicians, corporate shareholders and beneficiaries behind the covid pandemic have been hollowing out the West on a much bigger scale. Itā€™s all been documented in detail on the internet and the same empty talking heads in the media avoid the reality.

    1. R.Grange
      March 22, 2023

      And Ukraine serves as a useful distraction, allowing the public to be coerced once again into another ‘all-in-it-together’ mindset. As long as we’re obsessed with Putin and think the government is ‘doing the right thing’ there, it brings the nation together and keeps our minds off the bleak future that’s being prepared for us.

    2. BOF
      March 22, 2023

      Good points Javelin. One only has to look at the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ and ‘New Silk Road’. Your last paragraph reads like a tragic summary.

    3. Cuibono
      March 22, 2023

      +++Agree 100%
      And what always really amazes me is the vehemence with which they refute the ā€œconspiracyā€ theories.
      There is no discussion just ad hominem and much screeching.
      Yet in reality no one can ever know anything for absolute certain.
      Same conditioning/ madness that was seen historically in certain regimes.
      Never good.

    4. rose
      March 22, 2023

      Latest from the UN is that we are going to have our water rationed.

      1. Cuibono
        March 22, 2023

        ++many
        Right!
        Harvest rainwater
        More water butts everyone..and dewponds.
        I have my eye on one of those many galloned containersā€¦ā€¦
        Nil desperandum!

      2. glen cullen
        March 22, 2023

        Update ā€“ the rationing now includes the steps you take, the distance you travel, air you breathe, the words you say, the things you think and books you read

        1. Cuibono
          March 22, 2023

          +1
          I saw somewhere that calorie intake is to be controlled/rationed to so where around 2,000 per day.

        2. hefner
          March 22, 2023

          Will the rationing also be of the stupidities you write everyday.

          1. glen cullen
            March 23, 2023

            Maybe ….freedom of speech is always the first to go

      3. Steve
        March 22, 2023

        Why do we need the UN to tell us about water rationing – I thought we had taken back control – can,’t even manage that by by ourselves.

    5. glen cullen
      March 22, 2023

      ….and yet this mad government is pushing net-zero

  5. Michelle
    March 22, 2023

    Wind power from Scotland to ‘heavily populated parts of England’.
    The population boom is one issue that could have and should have been tackled long ago.
    It is another sign of poor management, self serving, lack of forethought and lack of due care and attention to the host population.
    All our resources and infrastructure are groaning under the weight.
    What will the political class’s answer be? To follow the new edict from UN I expect with their latest climate doom pronouncement.

  6. DOM
    March 22, 2023

    The Left will take control of the MET using all the ‘isms’ that they can muster. Dangerous times in Britain as the Tories once again pander to minority rights Marxists.

    If the MET falls then no institution is safe

  7. Richard1
    March 22, 2023

    At the moment electricity accounts for c. 20% of primary energy consumption in the U.K., as in other similar countries. We may allow for future increased efficiency of machines, devices and processes, and for the fact that when burning fossil fuels much energy is wasted as heat transferred to the environment as opposed eg to driving engines. Even so if we are aiming to electrify 100% of energy consumption by the time of net zero being achieved, an increase in generating capacity of just 40-50%, as opposed to say 3x, would seem wholly inadequate.

    Presumably somebody at the dept of net zero understands this, in which case wouldnā€™t this answer be ā€˜misleadingā€™?

  8. Donna
    March 22, 2023

    The Eco Lunatics in the Establishment apply the Red Queen’s strategy to energy supply:

    “Why, sometimes I believe in 6 impossible things before breakfast.”

    There is no significant climate change; there is no evidence that CO2 is the cause of the brief period of warming in the 80s/90s.

    The Net Zero lunacy is about control of the masses; rationing the use of resources; taxing the West and transferring wealth to the 2nd and 3rd world.

  9. BOF
    March 22, 2023

    ‘The Minister does not go into the issue of how much extra grid capacity is needed to take into account the heavy predominance of wind power from Scotland needing transport to the heavily populated parts of England’.

    Neither is it ever mentioned that the further electricity is conducted through the grid (Scotland to England), the more simply disappears before arrival at point of use. This makes wind and solar even more of a bad joke.

  10. Sakara Gold
    March 22, 2023

    “The bulk of our energy use today is fossil fuel dependent.”

    I beg to differ, the facts speak for themselves. Renewable electricity this winter has displaced more than a third of the UKā€™s entire annual gas demand for power generation. Without it, the UK would have had to increase net gas imports by more than 22 per cent (including gas imported via pipeline)

    Generating the same amount of electricity using CCGT would have required around 95TWh of gas ā€“ equal to 110 tankers of LNG – or the amount more than 10 million UK homes would burn over the winter.

    In 2022, UK renewables provided 38 per cent of the countryā€™s electricity generation, nearly as much as gas (at 40 per cent) and we became a NET ELECTRICITY EXPORTER for the first time since 2010

    Reply Electricity is a minority of our energy. Most people mainly use fossil fuels with gas boilers and petrol cars.

    1. Fedupsouthener
      March 22, 2023

      Sakara. I’ve asked this question before. Does wind produce 38% of energy for 100% of the time? No, thought not. What do you think we should use when wind and solar are not performing?

      1. Sakara Gold
        March 23, 2023

        @fedupsoutherner
        It’s pointless trying to debate the obvious benefits of renewable energy with a pro fossil fuel dinosaur with a closed mind. The facts speak for themseves

        Only half of the possible recoverable energy from CCGT generators is converted to electricity. The rest (“waste heat”) leaves the unit and heats up the planet. With coal-fired power stations it’s worse, the efficiency is at best 35% – hence 65% of the “waste heat” is dispersed using the once familiar cooling towers.

        Wind, solar and hydro harvest free energy – coal and gas have to be imported at huge cost. Why don’t you celebrate Britain being a world leader in something for once? The negativity of much that you post here is depressing

    2. Gabe
      March 22, 2023

      Sakara you say “I beg to differ, the facts speak for themselves” indeed they do. More that 85% of UK human used energy comes from oil, gas, coal, nuclear… considerably less than 8% come from wind and solar. We have claims that:-“Zero-carbon sources continue to outperform traditional fossil fuel generation by providing 48.5% of the electricity used in 2022, compared to 40% from gas and coal power stations.”

      But this absurdly includes burning imported wood at Drax it also ignores the fossil fuels used in constructing the wind farms, hydro, solar farms and the use of fossil fuels for back up and storage, There is of course no such thing as “Zero Carbon Electricity” or “Zero emission cars” it always produces some CO2 to construct and transmit often a very large amount. Electricity is only about 20% of total worldwide energy use.

  11. Anselm
    March 22, 2023

    Last year the grid demand maxed out at 42 GW, not 60 as stated.
    I wish ministers and people would stop talking in rounded figures for electricity production. Wind power varies incredibly. At the moment almost 50% of our electricity is being produced by wind power. Last Wednesday it went right down to 2.5 GW. As you say, Sir John, the slack is reliably taken up by oil, while nuclear power plods along at about 5 GW.
    A little thought. Scratching the surface shows the Met to be in terrible problems with its organisation. I wonder what would happen if you did the same to water or electricity production(especially wind power)?

  12. Lifelogic
    March 22, 2023

    Totally insufficient if we are really going to move to EVs and electric heating and heat pumps, Plus connecting up wind (especially offshore) and solar is far more complex and expensive than connecting up a few large power stations. Also the intermittency of wind means and solar you need lots of power lines that are not even in use or useful for much of the time. So it costs far more for the quantity of electricity actually usefully transported. Solar give nothing at night and very little at all other than middle of the day in summers. So the connections are completely wasted for most of the time.

    Is Graham Stuart and his “experts” actually numerate? It seem he read Philosophy and Law at Cambridge but failed or perhaps dropped out of his degree – not always a bad sign.

  13. Sakara Gold
    March 22, 2023

    Many of the points that you raised in your question are valid, particulary the delay in building the proposed HVDC southern link between Scotland and England.

    However, between 1 October and 28 February 2023, power generated by wind, hydro and solar reached 47TWh. This is an insane amount of electricity and renewables have saved the nation billions in subsidy costs for fossil fuels this winter. It is time that the pro fossil fuel lobby recognise the realities of this tremendous contribution to our economy and start supporting the transition to clean energy. SSE’s new Dogger Bank Array “A” will start producing it’s 3.6GW shortly

    1. Gabe
      March 22, 2023

      You say:- ā€œHowever, between 1 October and 28 February 2023, power generated by wind, hydro and solar reached 47TWh.ā€ Power is measured in TWatts. TWh is a measure of energy not power!

      If you mean energy then 47TWH of energy delivered over 5 months (so many hours) that is 1.29 GW on average enough for about a millions houses mostly ones heated by gas or oil anyway.

      Not sure where you got this from but they clearly do not understand what power and energy are or the units for them. You say ā€œReachedā€ when? Well perhaps for a pico second at one point in this period? Like a lightning strike?

    2. Mark
      March 22, 2023

      A few years ago when we still had some industry, the UK consumed about 400TWh if electricity, just to put your figures into context. Gas consumption is well over 800TWh.

    3. turboterrier
      March 22, 2023

      Sakara Gold
      How much in subsidies and incentives have they received to build it? Don’t even start to comprehend how much they will take in constraint payments over the life of the site.

  14. Old Albion
    March 22, 2023

    Sir John, ask as many questions as you wish. You will never receive a sensible answer. Not while your Gov. indeed any Gov. follows blindly the dogma of the non-existent threat of ‘climate change/global warming/net zero’
    They don’t have a clue how they will supply sufficient energy whilst following this nonsense.

    1. Gabe
      March 22, 2023

      Correct they do not even have numerate degrees in science, engineering, physics, energy economics they do not have a clue as they demonstrate every time almost every time they open their mouths or write anything.

    2. Mickey Taking
      March 22, 2023

      But it will all be evidence as to why Sir John finds himself sitting on the other benches observing chaos being delivered attempting to deal with issues his Government didn’t.

  15. agricola
    March 22, 2023

    We know that Nett Zero has not been thought through, so do not expect meaningfull answers. Questions for scribes are invariable replied to with a set of carefully constructed words that say little of significance. If you want answers go to where it is happening, which is why I suggested you visit Rolls Royce if you want to know anythjng about SMRs.

  16. Dave Andrews
    March 22, 2023

    I don’t know where the Minister gets his 60GW peak demand from. Totting up all the available reliable sources I get less than 50GW. You can’t include wind and solar, as they can’t be relied on at periods of demand.
    Then to get up to 85-90GW by 2033, without coal or gas that means 25GW or more from nuclear power. I can’t see that happening in the next 10 years.

    1. Gabe
      March 22, 2023

      Indeed that chance of all the UKā€™s solar and wind producing 100% of capacity at any one time is less than the chance of winning the lottery by finding a ticket in the street!

  17. Peter Gardner
    March 22, 2023

    This is reminiscient of what happened in South Australia which experienced a state wide blackout due to excessive reliance on wind and solar without the necessary grid adaptation. Engineers had warned the SA Government but since the cost of grid modification would have made the whole Green Energy policy unaffordable, that cost was hidden and the work was not done. After that disaster – which did extremely costly damage to industry, eg, aluminium smelters – The Federal Government had to bail out the state and canny Elon Musk ‘donated’ a battery as a hook for his further business in the state. Now he’s doing something similar with electric cars and the lack of Aus wide infrastructure to support them.
    Green Energy is a buy now and pay later policy and can be sold to the public only by hiding the truth and coercion. Isn’t Uk already in debt up to its eyeballs

  18. George Brooks.
    March 22, 2023

    Both your posts this morning, Sir John, clearly illustrate the total incompetence of the Minister who appears to have little grasp of his job and on reading Wikipedia brings absolutely nothing to it.

    Having had 3 PMs in less than a year it is not difficult to understand that we now have a lot of useless MPs in the government making a hash of running the country and not understanding how Net Zero and lack of energy security is putting this country in a very vulnerable position.

  19. Bloke
    March 22, 2023

    There is no shortage of insufficient answers or spokesmen to deliver them.
    There are excessively high numbers of people in these overcrowded islands.
    There are too many worthless MPs too.
    Many are fossils but no use in power.
    Such waste.

  20. Berkshire Alan
    March 22, 2023

    I despair at the level of intelligence of the answer, yes of course you can just direct someone to a couple of publications, but where is the empathy with the person asking the question, there is absolutely none, indeed it shows a crass level of awareness, with in this case you asking a sensible and important question.

    If these are the sort of answers Ministers get to a questions on a day – day basis, then it really does show that there is absolutely a huge gap in the working relationship of government and it’s so called support services.

    No wonder we as a Country are in real trouble on so many fronts. !

  21. Lynn Atkinson
    March 22, 2023

    Letā€™s hope that Mr Johnson is content with achieving Net Zero support in record time and way before Shultz and Macron repeat the performance.
    Now letā€™s get back to reality and to exercising our Sovereignty that the people demanded was repatriated throughout the Kingdom, to providing reliable energy at a cost that make growing tomatoes in hothouses a viable option.

  22. IanT
    March 22, 2023

    It’s interesting how when the chickens start coming home to roost, the politicians start to change their tune. The German car industry has finally realised that it can’t compete with Chinese EV production (not owning the source of raw materials or having hordes of cheap labour) and have decided that internal combustion engined (ICE) vehicles powered by “carbon-neutral” fuels are essential to their future well being. Germany being Europes paymaster has forced the EU to change their emmission plans at the last minute. Of course the reality is that these fuels emit about the same carbon as E10 petrol. But if you go to vast expense and trouble you can justify anything with “Net-Zero” – carbon accounting fraud on steroids….

    After all, everything imported for consumption in this country has a zero carbon footprint doesn’t it….

    1. Dave Andrews
      March 22, 2023

      Whilst in the EU and since, we have had a policy of blowing up our coal fired power stations, in the name of net zero. Meanwhile the Germans (and Polish and Italians) continue to use theirs, whilst we sitting on a sea of coal struggle to maintain our electricity demand.
      Aren’t we the idiots?

  23. Iago
    March 22, 2023

    Parliament will debate ā€œDo not sign any WHO Pandemic Treaty unless it is approved via public referendumā€. April 17th debate in Parliament. I hope you will consider attending.

  24. Javelin
    March 22, 2023

    The UN estimates in its latest climate change report, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), that the cost of climate change is now $131 trillion. This of course involves a lot of payments to billionaires and developing countries.

    Climate Change the 100 Trillion Dollar Grift.

    1. Paul Cuthbertson
      March 23, 2023

      The UN is a most corrupt globalist organisation along with the EU.

  25. glen cullen
    March 22, 2023

    Confused by the government message with a TV Ad telling us to turn domestic electricity down while the BBC reporting that the Mayor of London is switching on 30,000 lights for the month of Ramadan ā€¦..help ā€“ do I turn my lights down or do I switch on more lights ?

    1. Mickey Taking
      March 22, 2023

      and noisy smokey fireworks at all hours of the night.

      1. Cuibono
        March 22, 2023

        +1 million
        Suffered for years and years.
        Terrible for wildlife and pets.
        An absolute assault.

  26. glen cullen
    March 22, 2023

    ”The bulk of our energy use today is fossil fuel dependent”
    See China & India

  27. rose
    March 22, 2023

    I do hope your colleagues vote against the Windsor Framework and not just abstain. This is no time for niceties.

    1. glen cullen
      March 22, 2023

      THEY’VE ALL ABSTAINED

      1. Mickey Taking
        March 22, 2023

        Well Sir John and 20 other Tories voted Against.
        They stuck to their opinion on what the Windsor nonsense implies – back to EU like it has since 2016.

        1. glen cullen
          March 22, 2023

          Upon reflection I meant the ones that voted with the government, abstaining their responsibility for democracy, sovereignty and the people of NI

    2. Blazes
      March 22, 2023

      Rose I would remind you that there are other people living in NI besides the DUP – they also have rights and are looking forward to parliament bringing in a fair vote to get us all out of this quagmire. Since the beginning of time the DUP have been saying no to everything and they are still saying no – they have not brought forward one single idea by themselves of how to solve this awful problem and so now we can see that their one time Tory allies are turning against them – they are certainly going to vote against them

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        March 22, 2023

        No Tory worth the name will vote differently to the DUP. The DUP say no to surrendering the last part of Protestant dominated Ireland to the Republic.
        If you want them to say ā€˜yesā€™, change the question.

      2. Mickey Taking
        March 23, 2023

        It is not about voting for or against THEM, it is about trading between GB and NI which should not involve any reference to EU laws or standards. Should the NI citizens wish to trade across the historic uncontrolled border then EU regulations come into it.

  28. agricola
    March 22, 2023

    When will the HoC realise that Nett Zero is a false god to which they are showing abeyance. There will be no virgin birth, miracles or second coming. That climate changes is a cyclical fact, it has been happening for millions of years. Please do not confuse it with the fact that wherever you look we live in a very shitty country. Roads, anything government touches, energy supply, immigration, NIPWF, taxation, river and sea fouling. All a combination of personal indifference and a government of no ambition backed by a service of scribes who have undefined negative input beyond getting a “K” at the end of it. If Reform succeed in 2024 they at least have a positive agenda, anything else on offer is just continuity chaos.

    1. IanT
      March 22, 2023

      Western Governments are busy pushing this new green religion but only represent 13% of the worlds population.

      Meanwhile the rest of the world is going it’s merry way. Since 2010, Indonesia alone has opened 22.7 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity, third in the world behind India and China. That means coal now accounts for nearly 60% of the countryā€™s electricity generation, a figure that has risen steadily since 2010. We are busy whistling in the wind….

  29. Original Richard
    March 22, 2023

    Make no mistake, the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero intend to make our energy as expensive and insecure as possible.

    Just two quotes from a recent National Audit Office report called ā€œDecarbonising the Power Sectorā€ :

    ā€œThe lack of a delivery plan means DESNZ cannot be confident its ambition to decarbonise power by 2035 is achievable…. Many of the changes necessary to achieve decarbonisation rely on technologies that are not yet available or not yet ready to scale up to the level needed. A key example is technology to enable the power system to meet demand at times when there is little wind power.ā€

    ā€œThere is a risk that without a delivery plan, decarbonising power while maintaining security of supply will cost consumers more. For example, ensuring network capacity keeps pace with expanding generating capacity could avoid the risk of paying wind farms to shut down.ā€

  30. Original Richard
    March 22, 2023

    Make no mistake, the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero intend to make our energy as expensive and insecure as possible.

    There is no way that expensive, low energy density, intermittent, unreliable wind power can provide any form of energy security. Economic grid-scale electrical energy storage does simply not exist so supplies of electrical energy will be intermittent and hence rationed by both price and by rolling blackouts.

    Furthermore, relying on China, a state described as ā€œhostileā€ by our security services, for the supply of our essential energy infrastructure – wind turbines (90%), solar panels (100%) and 60% or more of the minerals for batteries, motors and generators, if not the items themselves, cannot be considered to give us energy security.

    The correct solution, once the CCA legislation had been enacted back in 2008, would have been to start a new nuclear program as nuclear is the only low carbon technology which is affordable, reliable, secure and capable of providing sufficient power without consuming vast amounts of space and mineral resources. The fact that the only nuclear new build since 2008 is Hinkley Point C, a poor choice technically and expensively financed by the Chinese, is proof that our energy policymakers do not believe that increasing levels of CO2 will result in a climate emergency/crisis.

  31. Will in Hampshire
    March 22, 2023

    Three cheers for Petronella Wyatt in the Telegraph today!

  32. Matt
    March 22, 2023

    Goo idea today best to keep well away from the Boris business and the brake vote

  33. Derek
    March 22, 2023

    Another fob off from the back boys of the Department and voiced by a minister. Why is there no mention of just how this country is going to gain the capacity they suggest is required? Renewables are notoriously UNreliable aren’t they? So what is the alternative back up? Coal? Just like Germany? Hooray.

  34. Mark
    March 22, 2023

    We can get a better idea by looking at what National Grid say about their East Anglia Green project which is just the first phase of what they will need there.

    The existing network in East Anglia currently carries around 3,200 megawatts (MW) of electricity generation. Over the next decade we expect more than 15,000MW of new generation and 4,500MW of new interconnection to connect in the region.

    That is more than six times the existing provision. Of course there would be substantial onward transmission to larger centres of demand outside East Anglia.

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      March 22, 2023

      Often questions to the Minister are not to obtain information, but to draw the Ministerā€™s attention to the facts that he should be concentrating on.

  35. Cuibono
    March 22, 2023

    Just look at the case of Coton Orchard in Cambridgeshire.
    Council voted to destroy it to make room for some crazy bus scheme.
    Beautiful ancient trees bearing 26 different varieties of pear and apple.
    What is this climate zealotry actually about?
    Its proponents certainly donā€™t like nature.
    Head of Plymouth council has resignedā€¦pendant moi le dėluge indeed! And then, off I skip!

  36. glen cullen
    March 22, 2023

    Uganda and Tanzania celebrating a massive oil project, and building a pipeline across both countries to the sea coast, theyā€™re celebrating that it will rise the living standards of everyone and double their GDP ā€¦.either they didnā€™t get the net-zero message or theyā€™re ignoring it – Al Jazeera News

  37. agricola
    March 22, 2023

    Now that we have the HoC vote in which a number of your party have voted against the interests of one quarter of the UK, are you about to propose the removal of the word Unionist from the title of your party.

    1. glen cullen
      March 22, 2023

      +1

  38. Ed
    March 22, 2023

    All this net zero lunacy is built on a lie.
    The current temperature anomaly over the long term mean is……0.08 degrees.
    There is no climate crisis.
    Anyone who thinks that we can live and prosper without access to reliable energy should not be let out of the house without reins.

    1. hefner
      March 22, 2023

      As you might, or more likely do not, know an anomaly is defined for an area and over a period of reference. So what are you talking about?
      metoffice.gov.uk ā€˜UK actual and anomaly mapsā€™.
      It looks like most of the UK was between 1.5 and 2.5 C warmer this January 2023 than it had been in the average UK January temperature 1961-1990.

      1. Original Richard
        March 23, 2023

        hefner :

        Yes, interestingly the temperature increase for the UK according to UAH satellite data since 1979 is 0.3 degrees C/decade, double the global average of 0.15 degrees C/decade. Quite possibly due to the AMO, which BTW fits very nicely with the relatively large increasing and decreasing temperature movements for Iceland.

        There is plenty of data showing NH temperatures above those of today, such as tree rings, speleothem records, crop growth in Greenland, vines grown in the north or England and the rise and fall of tree lines and glaciers in the Alps etc.. In fact there is evidence that when Hannibal crossed the Alps in 218 BC he was greatly assisted by the total lack of snow and ice.

    2. glen cullen
      March 22, 2023

      Agree – you only have to look out your window for the evidence

  39. John Downes
    March 22, 2023

    “It implies limited roll out of electric vehicles and all electric heating systems.”
    That’s the way I would bet too. Nobody wants either.

  40. glen cullen
    March 22, 2023

    Imagine weā€™re back in the 1980s, in a non net-zero world, where children arenā€™t in fear of world collapse, where businesses donā€™t have to complete zero emission assessments, where homes are levy free and have cheap energy, where government arenā€™t taxing everything to death in the name of the UN IPCC report or where local government max council tax, restricting car use and building cycle-lanes rather than provide services ā€¦.where did it all go wrong ā€¦it went wrong with the adoption of the Climate Change Act and the Committee of Climate Change

    1. Mickey Taking
      March 22, 2023

      It went wrong when bizarre leftie policies were listened too, instead of being told ‘what a load of balls’.

  41. Jameson
    March 22, 2023

    Nice touch by Sunak today – he got the framework ‘brake’ business passed while everyone else is busy watching the boris show.

  42. glen cullen
    March 22, 2023

    I applaud you SirJ and the other 21 conservatives for voting against the Stormont Brake today and condemn the 47 conservative abstentions and all the other who voted for it

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