Are the western Central Banks going to make a habit of getting it wrong?

The UK, Euroland and the USA all have ā€œindependentā€ Central Banks, all are charged with keeping inflation around 2% and all presided over inflation surging to around five times target. They all blamed energy prices that were driven up by the Ukraine war, ignoring inflation well above target before the invasion. They do not ask how Chinese inflation stayed around 2% and Japanese around 3% despite importing a lot of energy. Nor do they tell us why inflation has stayed high long after the oil price subsided.

All three printed large sums of money and deliberately paid very high prices for bonds in 2021 during recovery , driving interest rates to very low levels. They stubbornly refuse to even accept the inflation in assets they created let alone the more general inflation these irresponsible policies were bound to cause.

Now they have lurched too far the other way. Cutting the money supply, selling bonds off or accepting maturity repayments at big losses they are trying to bring on downturns. The Bank of Englandā€™s rate rising announcement of large bond sales undermined the pension fund/LDI market so they temporarily had to reverse the bond sale policy and buy up some more. The Fed has helped undermine some large US regional banks with bond price drops and had to tip an extra $400 bn of money into markets to stop a wider collapse.

All 3 Banks should invite in some new people and new thinking. They have done damage through inflation and slowdown policies. They need to monitor and understand the path of money and credit growth to avoid these big errors.

100 Comments

  1. Mark B
    May 8, 2023

    Good morning.

    . . . are trying to bring on downturns.

    This is probably the only way they can reduce demand and bring inflation down. We therefore have to ask, where has all the demand come from ? One possible answer is all the people the government keep inviting in. More people equals more demand, whether that be fuel and energy or food and services. What the BoE and others are doing is cutting consumption, not DEMAND !! People will eat and heat less but, overall we will still consume more as there are more and more consumers.

    Perhaps its is time to take back control of inflation measures. That, or sack the people who are clearly not doing their job.

    1. PeteB
      May 8, 2023

      Mark,

      I suspect it is more subtle than people not doing their jobs properly. I’d suggest we have 1 of 3 scenarios:

      1. Groupthink and incompetence – all of these central bankers are incapable. Your point.
      2. High inflation is a conscious decision aimed at bringing down national debt as %GDP.
      3. Governments trying to blame Central Banks for their own decisions to throw money into the economy in 2020/21.

      Let markets set interest rates )as happened for centuries) and these problems would reduce.

      1. Peter Wood
        May 8, 2023

        All of the Above.
        The point being made is the dark question of WHY are they all making the same ‘mistakes’. You can’t tell me that the big brains in these central know not of what they do. We know the results, so they must also. History tells us that serious economic downturns, that cause human suffering, are oft followed by human conflict. Is that what the callous world rulers have in mind?

      2. Ian B
        May 8, 2023

        @PeteB +1

        Yup, This Conservative Government has forgoten they are they one we have empoered and pay to ‘manage’ the UK. That includes the BoE the collective ‘Blob’. But, the refuse and keep refusing

      3. Ralph Corderoy
        May 8, 2023

        I pick ‘High inflation is a conscious decision aimed at bringing down national debt as %GDP’.

        There are sovereign debt crises in many countries, including the UK, USA, EU three listed by Sir John.ā€‚They need to aim for low double-digit price inflation on and off for years to erode their debt.ā€‚Too many are near a debt spiral to do anything else.

        Productivity improvements are not their aim as they’re inherently deflationary.ā€‚It’s why Sir John’s valid arguments fall on blocked ears.ā€‚And why Prime Ministers bent of improving productivity must be brought down.

        It’s said the generative AI models could replace workers in many ‘fuzzy’ industries where accuracy isn’t valued.ā€‚Journalism, social-media management, internal company reporting…ā€‚This is potentially a hugely deflationary change as it’s a big technological improvement.ā€‚Just what the fiat currencies can’t weather.ā€‚It may be the event which replaces years of 10% price inflation with a much larger deflationary shock.

        I agree, let markets set interest rates.ā€‚But that will only happen by stealth as governments won’t cede the monetary hegemony.ā€‚A new decentralised Internet money with no central control could attract wealth as the Internet attracted the digitisation of everything.ā€‚It will be fought.ā€‚CBDCs are one weapon.

        I think the biggest initial use of generative AI will be to flood social media with credible writing, audio, and video containing all kinds of propaganda and misinformation.ā€‚This will increase consumers distrust of information sources.ā€‚They will instead cherry pick the content that matches their viewpoint.ā€‚Polarisation will increase, fuelled by harm from the lack of sound money.

        1. Lynn Atkinson
          May 9, 2023

          Well argued points. The Western Governments, the inheritors of much, have debased everything state run. All solutions at this point are unpalatable – basically because no sentient person would start from here.
          AI is already corrupted and will progress logically from this corrupted starting point. The further it goes the more obvious the deviation from ā€˜truthā€™ will become – like a long hitter striking a bad golf shot.
          Powell said ā€˜the people will win in the endā€™ and the political class who has abused its position and its electorate does not seem to have the wit to be wary. Our kind host being the exception that proves the rule.

    2. BOF
      May 8, 2023

      Mark B
      Or even try a novel solution. STOP inviting in so many migrants!

      1. glen cullen
        May 8, 2023

        But our government tells us that we need the hundreds of thousands immigrants because the UK 1.4 million unemployed donā€™t want to work or canā€™t be trained ā€¦thatā€™s why theyā€™re secretively not sending any home

    3. James1
      May 8, 2023

      ā€œAll 3 Banks should invite in some new people and new thinking.ā€

      They donā€™t need some new people, they need to replace their entire management teams. But unfortunately they wonā€™t. And thatā€™s another nail in the so-called Conservative Partyā€™s coffin at the next election.

    4. acorn
      May 8, 2023

      BTW. Interesting play on the electric grid lately. See https://www.energydashboard.co.uk/live
      The UK is importing cheap MWs with low CO2; forcing UK expensive gas with high CO2, to stay in storage. Nice little earner for the continental sellers.

  2. Lemming
    May 8, 2023

    “Everyone is wrong, except me”, says John Redwood. Again.

    Reply Why should I have to agree with a clearly wrong view just because a Central Bank holds it? Why do you defend policies which gave us 11% inflation against a 2% target? I did very clearly explain how too much QE is inflationary.

    1. Lifelogic
      May 8, 2023

      Far more than 11% inflation for people who spend most of their incomes on rents, mortgages, food, heat and light, petrol/diesel, tax, NI… Sunak, the Tories (cheered on by Labour) and the BoE are to blame for this deliberate inflation/currency debasement, the idiotic & counterproductive lock downs & other appalling Covid policies, the net harm vaccines even for children, the endless government waste & corruption and the net zero lunacy.

      So not really Putinā€™s evil war nor Covid itself Sunak, just appalling government from you and the Tories cheered on by Moronic SNP, greens, Plaid, Libdims & Labour under the dire Starmer.

    2. IanT
      May 8, 2023

      ā€œEveryone is wrong, except meā€
      No, what Sir John is stating is very obvious. The puzzling thing is why more people are not shouting this from the rooftops? If you have too much debt, stop spending. If you don’t have enough money, look for savings. If you want growth, encourage private enterprise. The Public Sector makes nothing and contributes less & less, whilst growing like some giant leech. Feeding it (by printing money) is a really stupid idea. Unfortunately, I don’t hear anyone suggesting good (e.g. hard) solutions, just more expense.
      This morning (Labour) “We’ll fix GPs by throwing another Ā£250M at them” (I paraphrase) – what they really mean is “Let’s feed the Giant Leech”. How are they going to actually make us ALL wealthier? With all those new “Green” jobs they talk about? Well first, they will have to replace the jobs being lost in the oil, gas and car industries. We seem to have three main political parties now – Dumb, Dumb and (even) Dumber.

    3. Ian B
      May 8, 2023

      @Lemming I am amused, a pot calling the kettle ā€¦. comes to mind, with a handle like, that in its a self explanation of your own direction.

    4. Margaret
      May 8, 2023

      Lemming you need to understand that this is John’s expertise from all standpoints. Just like I have tried to prevent the downfall of The NHS and many have tried to stop inward migration but they keep continuing down the line of they no better.

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        May 8, 2023

        We need the downfall of the disastrous, crippling, bankrupting, selfish NHS. Letā€™s see how many people bang post for striking Cancer-specialist nurses.

      2. Margaret
        May 8, 2023

        Know of course.

      3. Margaret
        May 8, 2023

        Language, spelling and English was my forte and recently,I keep automatically writing with babyish mistakes such as know and no.Any theories why this should happen?
        I have.

        1. John Hatfield
          May 8, 2023

          It’s an age thing Margaret.

        2. Lynn Atkinson
          May 9, 2023

          The interference of the ā€˜confusedā€™ knowing better than you and ā€˜improvingā€™ your post just before printing is a factor too. My big problem is typing, 2 fingers, have to look at the keyboard all the time so not reading and always in a rush, so donā€™t proofread and should!

  3. Cuibono
    May 8, 2023

    Have they all done it on purpose so as to have an excuse to impose digital currency?
    After all, China and Japan already have digital in place.

    1. Ian+wragg
      May 8, 2023

      Yesterday a government minister said halving inflation was the best tax cut ever and fishy saying tax reductions cause inflation.
      With clowns like them incharge we really don’t need an opposition.
      Never in my 70 plus years can I remember such a bunch of chances in power.
      You make Bliar and Broon look half competent

      1. Cuibono
        May 8, 2023

        Yup!
        I have to pinch myself on a daily basisā€¦. this is all actually happening!
        And now there is no escape.
        The mayhem and destruction everywhere is incredible.
        Who are these people that are ruining our lives?

      2. Ian B
        May 8, 2023

        @Ian+wragg Rishi is also on record as saying high taxation is needed to reduce inflation. The PM’s maths is that if people and industry are squeezed out of existence, they will not need more money to cover the basics to survive ā€“ so therefore no inflation

      3. Lifelogic
        May 8, 2023

        Indeed and halving inflation still means prices rising at circa 6% not negative price rises!

      4. Lynn Atkinson
        May 8, 2023

        So the increase of inflation to 10% was the biggest tax rise ever, overseen by the Tory Government and its poodle the BOE.

        1. Lifelogic
          May 8, 2023

          +1 indeed this on top of their biggest actual tax rises too.

    2. Bloke
      May 8, 2023

      All monetary values are expressed in digits. Individual citizens can and do transact even verbally without banks. A currency is like an IoU system; relying on trust. Computers may assist with admin reliably, but bank operators are often untrustworthy.

    3. Donna
      May 8, 2023

      The Bank of England has (quietly) published a Consultation Paper on the proposed Digital Currency.
      You can read the proposals and respond to the Consultation here. It closes on 7 June.

      https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/paper/2023/the-digital-pound-consultation-paper

      1. Sharon
        May 8, 2023

        Donna
        The worry is the crafty wording that ā€˜reassuresā€™ people that cash will run alongside digital. As Iā€™ve said before – a few people Iā€™ve spoken to assume that digital will be as now, but without needing to visit the ATM ever again. The mission creep of businesses not accepting cash will slowly strangle cash use. And of course, digital is programmable! Thatā€™s where this will leadā€¦ it might take a few years or it might accelerate. Thatā€™s when weā€™ll be trapped in a digital prison of carbon footprints, basically, a social credit system!

        1. Donna
          May 8, 2023

          Agreed. But you can at least register your complete opposition to their plans, in your own words, on this consultation ….. unlike other recent governmental ones where you could only choose from a range of options which were carefully worded to ensure you could not oppose them.

          The onus is on us to use cash as much as possible and resist the push for digital currency/digital ID/Social Credit. Make it as difficult for them as possible.

  4. Ashley
    May 8, 2023

    Indeed but are they actually ā€œerrorsā€ from the bankā€™s , Sunakā€™s (who was Chancellor and thus the main culprit) & state sectorā€™s point of view or are they just another planned way to tax and rob tax payers and investors? This by decreasing the value of their saving and wages and making Ā£1 worth circa 70p in about four years. This inflation/currency debasement also increases taxes in another way. The tax thresholds are effectively cut for Income tax, CGT tax, National Insurance, IHT, higher rates of income taxā€¦The IHT threshold has been just Ā£325k for many years (Osborne and the Tories ratted on their Ā£1million promise) now this is perhaps worth more like Ā£200k. Sensible countries have now IHT or threshold more like Ā£8 million. 40% over just Ā£325k (now worth more like Ā£200k is an outrage. As is 40% income tax over just Ā£50k (now worth more like Ā£35k). You even lose you personal allowances now at Ā£100k (now worth more like Ā£65k due to inflation).

    Sunakā€™s currency debasement is a huge tax grab or theft depending on you point of view?

    1. Christine
      May 8, 2023

      IHT is a disgusting tax as the wealthy avoid it or are exempt. It is now being paid by the middle classes where even their houses are valued at more than the threshold. Over time we have become more like a communist state with little incentive to save or buy our own homes. Maybe this is the plan for us to own nothing.

      1. Lifelogic
        May 8, 2023

        +1

    2. Ralph Corderoy
      May 8, 2023

      Regarding stationary thresholds and allowances trampled by marching inflation, the Aussies call this ‘bucket creep’.ā€‚Singular and memorable, getting this into the British lexicon may aid publicising the implicit tax rises.ā€‚It comes from the pigeon holes or buckets that the tiers of thresholds create.

  5. oldwulf
    May 8, 2023

    “All 3 Banks should invite in some new people and new thinking.”

    This is nowhere near enough.

    In the private sector, if a finance person makes a mess of things, they generally lose their job and maybe the company goes out of business or there is a change of ownership.

    As yet, there seems to be no equivalent accountability/responsibility in the public sector.

  6. Javelin
    May 8, 2023

    You need ask the question – whose purposes do they serve? Somebody has benefitted from this and itā€™s not the public.

    1. turboterrier
      May 8, 2023

      Javelin
      Could it be that the three major banks operating in what appears in unison makes it easier for the advance of the globalist agenda and ultimately it will be they who benefit the most?

  7. turboterrier
    May 8, 2023

    What is the one common denominator across the three areas?
    Illegal or uncontrolled immigration, which surely must be impacting massively on national budgets? The demand placed on services is an never ending cost as the numbers increase.
    Is the problem that the right hand is not talking to the left hand in that you cannot slow down and steady the economy when there are ever increasing uncontrolled demands?
    In our case the massive waste by government, civil and public services cannot be helping the overall situation.

    1. Iain Moore
      May 8, 2023

      Agreed, there is talk that the net immigration for last year was not 500k but 700k, it is the enormous elephant in the room that none of them will talk about. This morning we had Simon Clarke MP on radio 4 explaining away the disastrous local elections result by them not covering enough of the countryside in concrete , there is never ever any mention of the vast demand they are shoving into the country with mass immigration. Every service and necessity we rely on is creaking and collapsing under the demand they have created , housing , schools, water, sewage, roads, public services, you name it and you will find it can’t cope, but our political classes won’t under any circumstances mention anything about it.

      What I find bewildering is why the Conservative party remains silent on it, as it is they actively go along with the censorship of this topic, perhaps as they are complicit in destroying our country they want to make no mention of it, but if we had a real party to represent conservative values, they would be pointing out the grotesque contradiction we are supposed to accept that while we are supposed to have unlimited resources to house the world, and the same time they are telling us we have to live like paupers to save the world, which make one , if not both, a lie.

  8. Gabe
    May 8, 2023

    Indeed but are they actually ā€œerrorsā€ from the bankā€™s , the State Sector & Sunakā€™s (who was Chancellor and thus the main culprit) point of view or are they just another planned way to tax and rob tax payers and investors? This by decreasing the value of their saving and wages and making Ā£1 worth circa 70p in about four years. This inflation/currency debasement also increases taxes in another way. The tax thresholds are effectively cut for Income tax, CGT tax, National Insurance, IHT, higher rates of income taxā€¦The IHT threshold has been just Ā£325k for many years (Osborne and the Tories ratted on their Ā£1million promise) now this is perhaps worth more like Ā£200k. Sensible countries have now IHT or threshold more like Ā£8 million. 40% over just Ā£325k (now worth more like Ā£200k is an outrage. As is 40% income tax over just Ā£50k (now worth more like Ā£35k). You even lose your personal allowances now at Ā£100k (now worth more like Ā£70k due to inflation) and child benefit at Ā£50k now more like 35k in real terms.

    Sunakā€™s currency debasement is a huge tax grab or theft depending on your point of view?

    1. formula57
      May 8, 2023

      @ Gabe – you state what seems to be a fairly widely held view.

  9. Bloke
    May 8, 2023

    Performance-related pay should prevent the incompetents from being wrongly rewarded for failure. Blunderers cause expensive losses for millions of others yet those idiots receive high incomes for doing such wrong. Banks should be managed by financial experts, not bet on the odds of casino managers. Those whose mismanagement creates immense financial damage to their nation should pay with their loss of liberty.

  10. turboterrier
    May 8, 2023

    The only thing driving up energy costs is the obsession by government’s to NZ.
    The lack of the infrastructure to implement the required distribution networks.
    But then it has to be expected as there is a greater force controlling the policies to slowly implement the new world order

    1. a-tracy
      May 8, 2023

      What does the ā€˜new world orderā€™ want, people all driving electric cars or not having personal vehicles and only using unionised public transport that can stop us travelling with the click of a two fingers. We should never have a small group of people able to stop trains to main events, pushing us on to public transport will only work when it is automated and not in the hands of a few.

  11. Donna
    May 8, 2023

    Sir John persists with the narrative that the Central Banks are getting things wrong.

    He never seems to consider the possibility that they are pursuing a different Agenda to the stated one. Once again, like the uniformity of Covid controls across so-called independent nations, they are acting in lockstep.

    It looks to me like controlled demolition: a deliberate process to destabilise the currencies and economies of western nations. And that is precisely what the WEF has advocated in order to “push the button” on The Great Reset and introduce their desired, Chinese-style, Control and Surveillance Global Government.

    In order to Build Back Better you first need a period of destruction.

    1. Iago
      May 8, 2023

      Very well said, Donna.

  12. jerry
    May 8, 2023

    Probably, all the time western governments and politicians keep making a habit of getting it wrong, just look at the high stakes game of poker coming from the USA currently; unless our host is disputing the fact that govts set economic policies, central banks merely follow, alleged independence or not!

    The BoE is wholly owned by the State, nationalised back in 1946, one of the few nationalizations our host doesn’t seem to want to sell off or contract out, why, given his belief the bank is independent of govt, why does a central bank need to be an extension of the State, a useful fall-guy (or indeed crutch…) when the govt of the day messes up perhaps?

  13. Sakara Gold
    May 8, 2023

    In all probability the BoE is going to raise the UK bank rate to 4.5% on Thursday. For whatever reason, inflation has become entrenched with many businesses discovering that they have pricing power for the first time in decades.

    Inflation is insidious. With the bank rate at 4.5% and inflation at 10.5% it is stealing the savings of prudent folk who have put a bit away for a rainy day – after having been taxed on it – and it is causing organised labour to go on strike.

    Gold has been used as an inflation hedge and a store of value for millenia. A kilo of gold in a vault in London or Zurich this month is fluctuating around Ā£52,000. Ten years ago it was around Ā£35,000. Go figure.

    1. IanT
      May 8, 2023

      “with many businesses discovering that they have pricing power for the first time in decades”

      How long do you think that can last SG? My neighbours don’t normally seem short of a bob or two but at our street party yesterday, I was interested that talk was about the cost (& viability) of insulating older houses and of children returning home because they can no longer afford rents. I suspect folk are starting to quietly cut back on the little ‘luxuries’ like that new car or expensive cruise. They are certainly not thinking about installing a heat pump. Fiscal Drag is starting to bite.

      I hold physical gold (via ETCs) but it’s certainly not a ‘fix-all’ panecea and if you look at value (in real terms) over the past 30 years or so, then whilst Gold gained, you would have been much better off in the FTSE 100 (and many times better off in US Tech stocks). Of course past performance (and all that) but best to remember that Gold is a Hedge, not an Investment. It doesn’t earn anything and you can’t eat it…

  14. Richard1
    May 8, 2023

    Groupthink is indeed the problem. Just like lockdown. And before that other bad policies such as the bank bailouts, devolution, the ERM etc. and now net zero.

  15. DOM
    May 8, 2023

    It’s a pity John only condemns what he knows he can. Other issues of a far more grave nature are conveniently ignored. His party exhibits the same type of moral blindness.

    Central banks are now politically controlled and act politically. Their power will become even greater when they finally gain direct control of our cash through digital currency. Maybe John should condemn this development for if it does happen Marxism in its truest form will arrive and the State will finally be able to control all areas of our daily lives

  16. agricola
    May 8, 2023

    If a Central Bank is an essencial tool then perhaps you should reconsider how it is managed. There is no shortage of competent economists in the market place from whom to choose. Offer places of three year duration on the decision making board, devised to avoid stagnation. Make sure that the message on targets from government are clear, and then hope for a better, more stable outcome. Finally mark the OBR and Treasury on prediction and achievement and only allow their input when they have proved themselves competent. If that proves impossible change the number crunchers.

  17. Cuibono
    May 8, 2023

    One can only imagine that this dire scenario is exactly what the govt. wants.
    Surely otherwise it would grab at JRā€™s tweet beginning ā€œ Last Thursday Conservative voters went on strikeā€¦ā€ like drowning men clutching at straws.
    Three simple points madeā€¦taxes, enterprise, borders.
    So straightforwardā€¦so certain ( could any outcome be worse that what govt. has created?).
    Yet it remains obdurate.

    WHY?

  18. agricola
    May 8, 2023

    Frankly after a very uplifting coronation , be it continuity ceremonial or a dazzling celebratory concert, we must face the fact that in terms of government policy and direction everything is the very antithesis of a very inspiring weekend. The electorate have spoken. They do not want consocialist policy and they are very unsure that the opposition have any real answers. So SJR what is the answer, more of the same or a radical re-think. That is a question to government as I have a good idea of the direction you would choose. If the monarchy can move with the times and inspire the people, why cannot government.

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      May 8, 2023

      Well Iā€™m pleased you enjoyed the ecumenical service. As an Anglican household, we had to switch off.

  19. Christine
    May 8, 2023

    As the small banks go under their assets are bought up by the big banks and their losses are covered by the taxpayer. All are part of wealth transfer. Soon only large banks will exist making it easier for governments to bring in their digital currency which will lead to a social credit system. The WEF plan is coming to fruition before our eyes and the gullible public are applauding it under the guise of saving the planet. Sad to see the lectures given at the coronation party last night by a bunch of hypocrites who travel the world in their private jets and helicopters.

    1. Iago
      May 8, 2023

      Well said, Christine.

    2. Paul Cuthbertson
      May 9, 2023

      Christine – Yes and they were all out on the streets the other day waving flags and cheering for the WEF NWO fanatic who does not give one iota for any of them. Wake up people, we have been fooled for decades and longer.

  20. hefner
    May 8, 2023

    Will she, wonā€™t she? Will Kemi B. keep Revolut HQ in the UK? Will its IPO be in London or elsewhere? That is the question.

    1. a-tracy
      May 9, 2023

      There seems more to this Revolut story than meets the eye, re FT and Telegraph.

  21. formula57
    May 8, 2023

    Yes, since they cannot risk inflation taking control (which with supply chain shocks, de-globalization, demographic pressures etc. it still could) nor can they jeopardize their own credibility by allowing market panics to be seen to force them to reverse their stated plans. Doubtless they see an unnecessarily (should that prove so) severe downturn as a price well worth paying (not that the bill will be met by them of course unless you are listened to).

    A return to historically more normal rates of interest would also bring the very welcome return of easier and more certain pricing of risk, thereby to help avoid the poor allocation choices we have witnessed in this post-Bernanke era of ultra-cheap money. Granted it would also mean the music stops for a lot of dancers skating on thin ice.

  22. majorfrustration
    May 8, 2023

    and still the idiots are allowed to run the BoE. Surely its time that the Government/MPs sorted this out – or dont they have the brains to get involved. Forty years of EU control has left us with a bunch of MPs who are unable to show any form of business understanding/leadership let alone brains.

    1. turboterrier
      May 8, 2023

      majorfrustration
      + 1000s.
      We the people are sorely let down by over 560 odd so called politicians.
      Totally not fit for purpose.
      No wonder the WEF train accelerates and keeps increasing its commuters.

  23. Fedupsouthener
    May 8, 2023

    Diesel was only 2p more than petrol yesterday. Seems a sudden drop. Who or what is behind this when diesel has been at a low price on the markets for ages now?

  24. Narrow Shoulders
    May 8, 2023

    Inflation is primarily caused by too much money chasing too few resources.

    From 2008 the too much money was given to banks which caused asset prices to inflate massively but apart from house prices the plebs were not overly affected by that so the insidious effects of printing just allowed the rich to get richer without making the poor poorer.

    Then came furlough and Covid loans where we see the effects of helicopter money on inflation. Giving the excess money to the plebs causes inflation in the daily costs of living. We will print more to hand out inflationary increases in benefits and pensions plus cost of living payments to the “vulnerable” which will impact the middle and reduce the differential that makes it worth taking on responsibility.

    Stop giving away money! This is government policy not Central Bank policy, the central banks just fund the policy.

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      May 8, 2023

      The clamour for Universal Basic income does not account for the massive inflation it would cause, leaving recipients no better off.

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        May 9, 2023

        Who will work for their income if you get it anyway and canā€™t increase it because of taxes?

  25. Bryan Harris
    May 8, 2023

    The UK, Euroland and the USA all have ā€œindependentā€ Central Banks

    – so called, but still politically motivated – They are all being guided in the same way because their ultimate aims are the same.

    – Make money usage expensive;
    – Reduce prosperity;
    – Create more poverty;
    – derail economies;
    – Reduce number of operating banks – removing choice;
    – force switch to digital currency, providing more control of people and their money / resources.

  26. Bert+Young
    May 8, 2023

    Some outside events have had an effect on our economy but , the BoE has made many blunders and , as Sir John has said , needs to change its management with proper and effective individuals .

  27. glen cullen
    May 8, 2023

    Are politicians going to make a habit of following Banks, UN WEF, UN IMF & World Credit Rating and the OBR

  28. Ian B
    May 8, 2023

    Good morning Sir John

    They have fallen in to the same trap as with what some call the Political Class. They have lost what their real purpose is, they work in unison with those that get to assume some form of leadership in their personal cuddly group. Sort of crowd think, indoctrination of a new religion. So their actions are about personal ego, self gratification and self esteem. That then leads to self preservation at all cost of these cabals.

    When all the time their purpose was to ensure the smooth flow of enterprise and fulfilment of those that they serve. They are there to serve in a way that allows everyone(that is everyone) to flourish.

    What we have finished up with is a clique of entities that havenā€™t a clue so try to force a one size fits all doctrine, for no other reason than self and to be seen to do something.

    They have lost the fact that all people in being equal is not the same as all people being unique and special individuals, which they are. So they impose their will (because they can) to make society in their own image. A bit like this Conservative Government, they believe the Metro Left of London are the same as all the Peoples of the UK, so if they impose the wishes of this one sector that makes the UK all work better – so we finished up with a Socialist Government.

  29. Philip Hatton
    May 8, 2023

    Whilst this is true, the UK is hostage to US rates. As most commodities are priced in dollars we have to follow the Fedā€™s lead or the pound will slip and prices will go up further. It is simply an illusion that we are independent . This also applies to European standards, if we donā€™t follow them we wonā€™t sell to them ( and other parts of the world that adhere to them).

    1. IanT
      May 8, 2023

      Why do i have this feeling that adhereing to EU ‘standards’ favours European imports rather than UK exports. The only standards we need are those technical standards sensibly required for product safety and compatability. The BSI works with ISO and other International bodies (including European ones) and that should be more than sufficient. Anything above and beyond this with regard to EU regulations is simply a form of pretectionism and should frankly be ignored. Let’s start thinking World Trade and not get ourselved too tied up (or tied down) in EU red-tape again.

    2. Lynn Atkinson
      May 9, 2023

      The USD has effectively lost its Reserve Currency status. So that excuse will no longer wash. Only companies that sell into the EU ā€˜adhere to EU standardsā€™ – letā€™s get back to our much higher standards, you know like drinking water flowing from the cold tap, and make anyone selling into our market ā€˜adhere to our standardsā€™.

  30. Ian B
    May 8, 2023

    The real niegh on unspoken ā€˜bug bearā€™ for us all, is it everyone else that has to pay directly for the personal mistakes of these people. The Conservative Government then to kick the taxpayer in the teeth for its own refusal to ā€˜manageā€™ rewards this failure with our money.

  31. paul
    May 8, 2023

    There are no errors with them when comes to Debt to GDP numbers, thats all you need to know and only high inflation would keep that in check. UK energy inflation is the worsted because they dunn it themselves with more to come in two months time when prices rise again.

  32. glen cullen
    May 8, 2023

    Home Office ā€“ 07 May 2023
    Illegal Immigrants ā€“ 134
    Boats ā€“ 3
    ā€¦enough is enough

    1. Timaction
      May 8, 2023

      None deported. Bit of a pattern here. What happens after useless legislation stage? Is it time for proper protests? This Government is totally useless. I see that labelling under the Windsor Treachery will apply to the whole of UK. No no no Tory traitors, just get out. We voted out. What don’t you idiots understand?

  33. Iago
    May 8, 2023

    Are the western Central Banks going to make a habit of getting it wrong? Yes, of course; it is all part of the liberal elite’s digging of the West’s grave. What on earth are we going to do about it?

  34. The Prangwizard
    May 8, 2023

    We urgently need new people, but does Sir John’s suggestion mean the old stay where they are, and only that a few new people are brought in to join – it is not clear.

    In my view those who are failures must be replaced and removed. Could you clarify and say who should go or is that too risky for you?

    1. IanT
      May 8, 2023

      I tend to think of UK as a spaceship (like the ‘Island Earth’ concept that is so popular). We have so much resource (energy, food, housing, health care and wealth (the means to trade with other ships for essentials). We also have an aging population and shrinking birth rates. However, that aging population will pass. Perhaps if they could afford housing, younger people might have more children. This is probably much easier to plan than climate change, so why isn’t it being done (or published)? We have limited resources here, so let’s start getting real about our population limits for a change.

  35. miami.mode
    May 8, 2023

    Ridiculous for a government to give “independence” to the BoE when government will be blamed when things go wrong. Especially so when government has to take remedial financial action to compensate for BoE errors.

    It only really makes sense in a case such as the EU where there is no directly elected government.

    1. Ian B
      May 8, 2023

      @miami.mode – One question that poses, how can anyone in a Democracy be allowed to be fully independent when their very existence requires the Tax payer to bail them out for their own and repeated mistakes. If we had a capable Government able to ā€˜manageā€™ they would cut the flow of taxpayer money to them, as it is the Government that is held to account and is responsible for were they dole out Tax Payer Funds. Better still, donā€™t fudge, play around, get rid and return to how it always worked before.

  36. Rodney Atkinson
    May 8, 2023

    Annual UK inflation up to January 2022 was about 5%. It is now over 10%. The MAIN difference is the POLITICAL decision to go to economic war against Russia thus raising oil, gas, diesel, grain, fertiliser and other critical prices. That is not monetary based inflation but administered price rises for which higher interest rates are not the answer

  37. Stephen Reay
    May 8, 2023

    We’ll have a clearer picture when the next inflation figures come out. With the cost of gas and electric coming down this will have a moderate effect on lowering inflation. The price of oil is not coming down, the OPEC countries are cutting oil production, whilst they wouldn’t admit to it, their decision is probably in support of Russia.
    With food prices remaining high inflation will be lower but consistent for some time yet. With Fishy Rishi saying he wants to cut inflation by half at the end of the year the BoE have little choice to keep rates going if Fishy is to meet his target.
    The government needs to focus on those companies which are price gouging and fleecing the the people, price increases are way above company increased costs.

    Reply The oil price has fallen despite OPEC production cuts. OPEC often work in the OPEC plus group which includes Russia.

    1. glen cullen
      May 8, 2023

      The last time the petrol pump price was below a Ā£1 was in May 2009 ā€¦.enough said

  38. Derek
    May 8, 2023

    It’s not just the CBs that have been getting it wrong. It is also the leaders of their respective Nations.
    In the UK we have a BoE who have got it wrong time and time again, along with the duff predictions of the OBR and the controlling Civil Service mandarins who seem now to run this country but not those elected to do so.
    It all points to this ‘New World Order’ that was laid down by President G.H. Bush back in the 90s in Rio during the Earth Summit Conference. This gave rise to UN Agenda 21 to open the project of ‘Globalisation’.
    Only now have many of them just realised it was a huge, huge mistake. Meanwhile, we plebs have to take the flack, again.

  39. Original Richard
    May 8, 2023

    ā€œā€¦.they are trying to bring on downturnsā€¦..They have done damage through inflation and slowdown policies.ā€

    Make no mistake, this is deliberate policy.

    At COP 26 our PM, then Chancellor said :
    ā€œSo our third action is to rewire the entire global financial system for Net Zero.ā€

    Net Zero is designed to impoverish us with expensive and intermittent energy to cause severe restrictions on food, travel, healthcare and any creature comforts.

    A prosperous, and hence socially stable country, cannot exist without access to cheap and abundant energy.

    CO2 is plant food and increasing it in our atmosphere will not cause runaway catastrophic global warming. The proof is the fact the fact that if it did then from 2008 onwards when the CCA was passed, nuclear energy, rather than wind, would have been selected as our primary source of energy as it is the only low CO2 emitting source which is affordable, abundant and reliable.

    Nuclear also consumes far less of the earthā€™s resources compared to wind ā€“ 1/1000th that of wind for steel and concrete for each unit of power and 1/1000th of the area required.

    1. Original Richard
      May 8, 2023

      PS :

      Last month, Germany, where the Greens are in a 3-party coalition government, closed down their final 3 (still working) nuclear power plants and instead are bringing back mothballed coal-fired plants and intending to build 30GW of gas powered generators by 2030.

      This is proof that anthropogenic CO2 emissions pose no risk at all to our climate.

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        May 9, 2023

        Indeed the coal-to-oil plants in Germany when last deployed during the war (and possibly in East Germany thereafter too) used the most found brown coal which produces plenty of rubbish emissions. I assume they are using the same coal as itā€™s all they have.

        1. Lynn Atkinson
          May 9, 2023

          ā€˜Foulā€™ not found – definitely a computer ā€˜correctionā€™.

  40. Ian B
    May 8, 2023

    Picking up on a comment(from a Lucian Bate) on similar elsewhere that is just as valid here

    ā€œblame blame blame – STOP BLAMING OTHERS – Both New Labour and the Tory governments of 80s could point to a load of achievements – on their own terms – that they were proud of. You can’t say that about the Tory governments since 2010. Responsibility used to be a conservative value.ā€

    What we have now is people that call themselves MPā€™s that are frightened of their own shadows. The Conservative Party in Parliament is said to have just 60 MPā€™s out 354 people that stood on that ticket.

    Conservative Voterā€™s quite rightly should hold the ā€˜Conservative Partyā€™ to account, it is supposedly their Party, supposedly their Government in power. Yet the refusal to ‘manage’ (those in this Government probably donā€™t even know what the word means) is at the heart of everything.

  41. glen cullen
    May 8, 2023

    This government loves banning things
    Couldnā€™t this government ban the requirement to call before 8am to book a GP appointment ā€¦.also change the GP working hours to 12am ā€“ 8pm to allowing working people to attend without leaving work and thereby improving productivity

    1. Iain Moore
      May 8, 2023

      Don’t worry they have the solution, rename GP receptionists as… ‘Care Navigators’… no doubt some management consultant charged us hundreds of thousands for coming up with that.

      1. glen cullen
        May 8, 2023

        I’ve just googled ā€˜ā€™care navigators nhs” and its a real thing ? God strewt, please rid me of this government

  42. Mike Wilson
    May 8, 2023

    Sometimes thing happen and nobody ever really explains why. Atrer years of low inflation, during which weā€™ve had base rate from 5% or more down to 0.25%, why do we have inflation of 10%? I mean, weā€™ve had gas prices go up and down, petrol prices up and down, interest rates have been up for 6 months – why are prices still going up.

    1. glen cullen
      May 8, 2023

      The cost push of net-zero

  43. glen cullen
    May 8, 2023

    ā€˜India’s domestic coal production surged by around 23% over the past five years, reaching 893.08 million tonnes in the 2022-23 fiscal year.ā€™
    https://www.livemint.com/industry/energy/indias-coal-production-soars-23-in-5-years-11683111162749.html
    The fear of climate change isnā€™t holding back Indiaā€™s growth plans and they donā€™t listen to the UN or bank forecasts

    1. glen cullen
      May 9, 2023

      UK zero (0) tonnes ….but thats not enough

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