The main messages from the two by elections are that many Conservative voters do not like what the government is doing or not doing, Ā nor do they want to vote Labour.
The secondary message is if frustrated Ā Conservatives vote Reform they can tip the balance between a Conservative and a Labour MP but they are miles off winning a seat even Ā in by election conditions.
It confirms my view that the government needs to cut taxes urgently, control spending better, make a substantial reduction in legal migration and follow through on its pro drivers pro personal freedoms policies.
The government needs an urgent Ā budget to expand business and supply, cut the rising prices of energy with temporary tax cuts all the Ā time oil is over $75 a barrel and help more people into work. Reverse the IR 35 changes and up the small business VAT threshold for starters. This is all affordable given the way this year tax revenue is well ahead of OBR forecasts.
October 21, 2023
If I remember rightly roughly 24,000 of the 36,000 who voted Conservative in MidBeds stayed at home leading to Labour winning 14,000 to 12,000. Reform got a couple of thousand votes.
In otherwords two thirds of Conservative votes refused to vote for Conservatives. Labour did not win this the Conservatives lost this.
The crazy reality that ALL the Conservativeās major policies were not in the manifesto and neither was the leader. They literally are a top to bottom Fake Party driven by some crazy liberal world view.
– Mass migration
– Net Zero
– Not doing Brexit
– Lockdowns leading to inflation
– Woke thought police
– Highest taxes in history
In most circumstances one of those policies would lose you an election. The only way the Conservatives could win is to completely purge the party and remove all these policies in the next 6 months.
In the words of the SDP. Go back to your constituencies and prepare for unemployment.
October 21, 2023
On your third item:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/10/21/cantillon-northern-ireland-protocol-delivers-for-some/
“It refers to the āspecial status that Northern Ireland has been grantedā under the Northern Ireland protocol, which it explains allows companies such as Almac āthe opportunity to effectively act as if they are still within the EUā.”
Unfortunately that is not the true picture: all companies in Northern Ireland are affected, not just those which have cross-border operations, and they are all compelled to “effectively act as if they are still within the the EU”, it is not an “opportunity” which they can decline.
And this is because Theresa May chose to apply EU checks and controls to the wrong flow of goods.
October 21, 2023
Ben Habib is right, destroy the Tories.
Tories betrayed the nation. Sunak has not even tried to implement the 2019 manifesto as he stated he would. He was not elected by members or nation. No one voted for his 5 failed pledges and everyone including MPs did not vote for tax hiking big state authoritarian Hunt.
October 21, 2023
Spot On
October 21, 2023
My dear, we have been trying to do that since 1992. Only because we needed a true Conservative Party to have space.. itās now 2023. A bit late in the day. Where have you been?
October 21, 2023
Well he might just about manage to halve inflation by the end of the year and his one of his promises. Bit inflation will still be far too high even if he does. But then he (as Chancellor) and Andrew Bailey at the BoE caused all this high inflation with their QE currency debasement, the mad lockdowns and Sunaks tax to death, borrow, print, over regulate and piss down the drain agenda in the first place did they not?
October 21, 2023
True enough Javelin. However with 1 year until the next GE I fear it’s too late to reverse current policies and convince voters to trust the Tories.
Better to prepare for 5 years of Kier but think now of ways to prevent a Labour landslide. Sir John and others need to explain to the Party the realities of the situation.
October 21, 2023
It’s no good telling us voting Reform will ensure a liebour victory. We’ve been fooled by that before.
If we’re to have socialism we might as well have the real thing.
Blair and Brown were better than the two we have now.
October 21, 2023
Once Starmer is PM he will be deposed and the regime which then prevails will make a real conservative government impossible in the future. Look how much constitutional change Blair and Brown wrought – which was never repealed.
October 21, 2023
PeteB
But he’ll be talking to deaf people…
October 21, 2023
Pete, Iām sure John is explaining until he is blue in the face, the question should be why arenāt so called āConservative MPsā listening and wanting to do something about it, why arenāt they ALL demanding a meeting with Hunt.
October 21, 2023
A good question indeed. Perhaps most assume they will survive the next GE??
October 21, 2023
Iām sure they are! Thank goodness for elections. Maybe the Chartists were right and we should have elections every year.
October 21, 2023
Oh God no Lynn. I agree with Brenda from Bristol āYouāre joking! Not another one!ā We already get one nearly every two years thanks to Council and Country being offset. Although I do think the Lords should perhaps we an elected chamber on the EU MEP style of choice, PR, vote for the party and they have a list in priority order, those not elected can be just Lord, Baroness in waiting unpaid.
October 21, 2023
Why?
Do you know the meaning of the word “comprador”.
It originally referred to complicity in the foreign exploitation of China in the late 19th century.
October 21, 2023
@PETEB
Yep … Conservative voters believe that the only way to get rid of Mr Sunak is to put Mr Starmer in power. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
Maybe Conservative MPs will wake up in time ?
October 21, 2023
Javelin
Well put!
As Neil Oliver said in his article in TCW – we live in a state of permanent crisis, but solutions only seem to be global ones.
The government are not putting the country first – do that and what Javelin says, the Conservatives might be in with a chance!
We are still (just) mainly a conservative country!
October 21, 2023
Javelin
Go back to constituents candidate selection.
No candidate eligible if they have attended Davos meetings or if they have any connection to WEF.
October 21, 2023
Thatās not constituents candidate selection, thatās the Central Office shortlist. Tell Central Office where to go and select people you can fight for as Tory Candidates!
October 21, 2023
Indeed but the main cause of inflation was BoE and Sunak as Chancellorās currency debasement with QE made worse by the net zero energy lunacy, lockdowns, covid loans and furlough and the general tax, borrow and piss down the drain agenda.
October 21, 2023
Well done Andrew Bridgen in his excellent and clearly correct speech in parliament yesterday at 2.30.
Unbelievable what the BBC did to this with their absurd, largely nonsense or irrelevant sub-scripts at the bottom of the screen. What a sick joke the moronic BBC has now become. There is no doubt that the (unsafe and largely ineffective) Covid vaccines have done very significant net harms and much of it to young health people who had no need of any Vaccine. Another blood contamination scandal but perhaps circa 1000 times larger. Where is the criminal negligence, corporate manslaughter enquiries.
I see that a transgender council worker has won more than Ā£25,000 after bosses at Kingston Council failed to change her name on their computer system. But if killed or maimed for life by duff Covid āvaxcinesā you might get Ā£120k tops.
October 21, 2023
It seems the inquiry is, as we feared, turning out to be a whitewash. Or rather a cheap “Get Boris” exercise and avoid the real questions. Carl Heneghan was furious on GB News at how he had been stitched up and framed by the lawyers, and not allowed to give his opinion properly.
October 22, 2023
+1 and Carl was quite right.
October 21, 2023
Reform UK will stand in every seat ā and make sure the Tories lose
Britain cannot reward 13 years of failure with more incumbency
says RICHARD TICE in the Telegraph.
Alas this will reward an even worse Labour/SNP, Libdim government, but Sunakās Con-socialists most certainly deserve it.
October 21, 2023
The Tories could change policies and win tomorrow …they choice not too …so be it
October 21, 2023
Stupid strategy. See the BDI for the answer! British Declaration of Independence. Brilliant strategy that can return sensible MPs within the main parties!
Enoch Powell said it was a good strategy and encouraged me!
October 21, 2023
Yes, the Conservative remainiacs most certainly deserve it, but we don’t.
October 21, 2023
Why do you let the First Lord of the Treasury off? All this was under the Orders of Johnson.
October 21, 2023
J,
Correct.
Maybe prepare for the complete disappearance of the Conservative Party too. The scale of the general election defeat is the only unknown.
I also believe many conservatives have already given up.
October 21, 2023
Amazing how deluded they are. They are spinning that the elections were lost because people did not turn out to vote, rather than because of the dire policies and talentless politicians we have. Presumably they have convinced themselves that people think it is only a by-election, so not worth going, but will all turn up in force at the GE. What they are not doing is to consider why the voters stayed away (except JR). They still believe in the Tories God given right to govern whatever mess they make and by Jove what a mess they have made over the last 14 years. Governments seldom live much longer than this one has in any event and the people seem to want a change. Problem is, Labour is hardly any change at all and we will still get all the woke and net zero nonsense if either of the parties win. Basically, we are stuffed and a few give aways (return of a small amount of our own money) will not turn things around. Panic among those not in safe seats will now result in internecine warfare which will not be attractive to voters.
October 21, 2023
On your first item, tidying up I’ve just come across my letter published in the Wokingham Times on April 7 2004:
“Time for a mutiny?”
“Sir – It seems that we are now ruled by a madman.
The population of the UK is about 60 million. The total world population is about one hundred times greater, at over six billion – that is, six thousand million.
Of those, perhaps two thirds would be happy to improve their lot by coming to this country.
So for Tony Blair to announce that he will not set any “arbitrary limit” to immigration strongly suggests that the pressures of office have unhinged him, and he is now insane.
If a naval captain goes round the bend, there is a set procedure for his subordinates to relieve him of his command. Can this also be done with a deranged Prime Minister?”
But now we know that it makes no difference whether it is Blair or Sunak, and also whether we are in or out of the EU, unlimited and uncontrolled mass immigration is what our political elite want and will have.
October 21, 2023
And now my tidying has taken me to the March 2005 letter on housing needs that I recently mentioned here:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2023/10/10/labours-conference/#comment-1413538
“Many red herrings have been brought into the debate about housing needs, but the core issue is the present government policy of allowing and encouraging mass immigration.ā
October 21, 2023
Dennis
Indeed we do not have a Housing Problem, we have a Population Problem.
Was the same then as it is now, and it will continue until a Government comes to its senses and realises we only have a fixed amount of land.
The other problem the Government have is that it designs policies which require more people to fund it.
No Joined up thinking, no understanding of Human nature.
October 21, 2023
@Javelin +1
Yes they have rejected their electorate and pursed Socialism
October 21, 2023
Spot-on Javelin.
October 21, 2023
Good morning.
“It is but a scratch “! Said the Black Knight !
Farage stood his troops down to give Johnson and the Tories a clear run in order to, “Get BREXIT done !”. Even if Reform cannot win a seat they should still stand and let Labour have a clear run. How much worse could they be ?
Frankly, I’d think we would not notice the difference.
October 21, 2023
Turn that around, the ONLY chance the Tories have of winning is to deal with Reform. This could take a number of different forms, but now Reform have a real chance to make a difference, from inside. Sunak has to resign. Javelin above has set out the critical issues to be addressed. ACTION BY MONDAY,
October 21, 2023
Incompetence, corrupt, climate alarmists socialists as now or even worse, politics of envy socialists with VAT on private school fees and investment and economic growth further deterred by more attacks in Non Doms and ever higher taxes and even more low skill immigration – Of the wealthy and hard working many will just leave.
But once Labour get in they will surely be in for many terms. They will extend the votes to children, and perhaps have compulsory voting to rig the system. The totally discredited Tories will be left with even fewer sensible MPs to fight back. What a tragedy the Tories have delivered after being given by Farage and then wasting their 80 seat majority.
October 21, 2023
I suspect they will adopt Caroline Lucas’s policy of electronic voting, for MPs and electorate alike.
October 21, 2023
āThe aftermath of Hamasās attack on Israel has exposed the Westās moral collapse
The protests we are seeing have nothing to do with Israel and everything to do with problems here at homeā
DOUGLAS MURRAY is surely right in the Telegraph today?
Problems created by various governments certainly from John Major onwards to Sunak perhaps even before – and still continuing. So how is Sunak getting on with his stopping the small boats promise – zero action so far it seems?
October 21, 2023
Mark they should not run in the Tory seats that have consistently voted for pro Brexit terms. That would be a serious mistake.
October 21, 2023
You mean the pro Brexit terms which have kept us shackled to the EU as, effectively, an associate member?
We voted to LEAVE, not become a satrapy with NI handed over to EU governance.
October 21, 2023
John Redwood didnāt vote for that Donna.
October 21, 2023
@a-tracy
But who are the Conservative MP’s, Sir John yes, but the others are keeping very quiet and looking for an exit. This Sunak/Hunt Government is out to destroy Conservativism and the UK. Most of us would guess they are leaving the UK to after the next election with what they see is their job done.
October 21, 2023
+1
October 21, 2023
We should invite all the candidates of the current Parliamentary Parties to sign a pledge which includes removing fake asylum seekers, closing the borders, citing the state, reducing taxes, ditching net zero, reincorporating NI into the U.K., cutting all remaining ties and payments to the EU etc etc. Rather like the BDI – then Tice etc should NOT stand against those candidates. – rather like the BDI which would have delivered a FULL Brexit in 1999 without the massive risk of the referendum.
October 21, 2023
+1
October 21, 2023
Like the Hunt, Skidmore, May, Mitchell, Bryne, Noakes, etc. types? Ardent left wing pro EU supporters. Happy to give away billions around the world and invite everyone here for the rest of us to suffer the consequences and pay for the experience. No thanks there are only a tiny few like JR. A minority fringe. Once that has no, absolutely no influence on his pro EU socialist woke party.
Come on who in their right mind would allow May to stay in the party after what she did? She only narrowly beat Corbyn with the help of DUP then betrayed them! Johnson should have cleaned out the party of left wing remainers who colluded and conspired to remain in the EU. No one could trust them. Now the Uni party are working to act in lock step to the EU against 4 elections and huge mandate to the leave the EU! The 2019 manifesto gave them a 85 seat majority!! They betrayed everyone including those they claimed leant them their votes!
October 21, 2023
They self-select. You would be amazed at the people who refused to sign up to Britainās Sovereignty, and those who did.
October 21, 2023
Yes I agree Lynn, but like that Monmouth guy that betrayed your trust can there be a clause, go against these agreed terms and you have to resign and stand in a by-election otherwise they just flip to say theyāre now Labour or Lib Dem or Green.
October 21, 2023
In the BDI the signature committed the MP who failed to vote for all the agreed points, to at the same time, take the Chiltern Hundreds. His āOath of Allegianceā was to his Constituents in writing. Mps misunderstand the term āking In Parliamentā which means the Sovereign peopleā they swear allegiance because the King canāt sack them. So this helped the MP and their constituents understand where the power lies.
MPs were under serious pressure from the Whips, so this also gave our representatives strength against the Party Machine. In any by-election caused by this forced incorrect vote, it would be made plain why the MP had resigned, and that would land squarely on the antics of the Party Machine.
I donāt think the Party Machine bothers JR much. But he must know how others buckle.
The BDI was about asserting our Constitutional Sovereignty. Impliedly, and therefore removing the U.K. from the EU without even mentioning the EU, but there is no reason the same strategy canāt be used on the primary points āthat Conservatives believeā as JR puts it.
My MP in Monmouth, Roger Evans, was lent on hard. He told me he had supported the Maastricht Treaty because it āsaved the PMās face – it could NEVER be implemented because that would entail overturning the whole Constitutionā. He was a Constitutional lawyer. He only had one term, that was before we devised the BDI and analysis of that Monmouthshire problem helped crystallise what we wanted to achieve. Roger Evans was and Iām sure is a solid Tory. But we lost him in the machine.
Itās pointless feeding good men into this mincing machine. We need to control the machine.
October 21, 2023
I think there are only about 20 at most sound Tory MPs who deserve not to have a Reform Party challenger. How many did not vote for any of the following – the Climate Change Act, the recent energy bill, the Windsor Accord or nod through Mayās insane Net Zero economic suicide bill? Prob. even fewer than 20?
October 21, 2023
Let them self-select. You canāt do it – you are biased and donāt have the full facts.
October 21, 2023
Mark/ Sir John.
The saying āRome was not built in a dayā applies I believe. We members of Reform UK are not disappointed as we know it takes a long time to establish a political reputation so we will persist. We also know our aims are good for Britain so we will push forward until we achieve our aims.
We will not desist as we know our reputation will increase. A lot of people have not yet heard of Reform or understand our policies but we persist until they realise we are BEST for Britain – OUR country must defeat so-called world governance.
October 21, 2023
Why are you not disappointed? Your strategy has been self-defeating for 35 years. See UKIP. Can you learn nothing?
October 21, 2023
In the bi election where I live people voted Lib dumbs just to get rid of the Tory. Reform for a first showing did very well. The message got around just get rid of the Tories. No one I spoke to liked the Lib Dem idiot chosen. It was a Gordon Brown moment anyone but him. This is mentality the Tories are now in. Anyone but them.
It would take radical immediate action to turn things around, not empty hollow promises.
The cleaning of prominent leavers in Tory party continues with Bone I note. How many now? Patel, Johnson, Raab, Dorries, Bridgen, Bone.. who next? Braverman doing rather well to remain in office. I suspect the Tory quota system helps her.
October 21, 2023
Johnson šš¤£
October 21, 2023
Selby & Ainsty, Somerton and Frome, Tamworth, Uxbridge, Mid-Bedfordshire: spot the odd one out. How did the winning Tory candidate campaign there? Does your party get it now, Sir John, or is it determined on electoral hara-kiri?
Lee Anderson said back in February you should fight the next election on ‘woke issues’. I didn’t hear much from him or his colleagues on that score yesterday after the by election defeats.
October 21, 2023
Ditch everything Woke, ditch net zero in full, cut taxes hugely, cut government, cut waste, cut red tape, stop the wars on motorists, the self employed, small businesses, landlords, stop blocking roads, go for easy hire and fireā¦
October 21, 2023
ā While the right are likely to become more vocal in the wake of the by-elections, others are urging caution. āIf you swing to the right you will lose even more from the centre,ā one minister said. āWe end up with the Suella Strategy appealing to a smaller and smaller group of people in ever more strident terms.ā
The Times
If this is accurate, it means the Conservative Party will plough on regardless with centrist policies that make them indistinguishable from Lib Dems and Labour.
There is no telling some people.
So we will get Labour in due course.
Soon after the Labour infighting will start.
Eventually, there will large scale political violence that the ineffective police or the armed forces will be unable to quell. The poll tax riots will seem as nothing.
It wonāt be older, established voters who are involved but younger people who feel overlooked and have no stake in society.
October 21, 2023
@R.Grange I would guess Lee Anderson has gone over to the ‘dark side’ he was moved to keep him quiet and has since refound his Socialist roots
October 21, 2023
The Conservative Party is also the Party of bureaucracy and waste. Civil Service numbers are up. HMRC are employing thousands more to clean out small businesses or PRS which fall foul of CGT.
The Highways Agency has taken over the Thames Crossing tolls, which was working perfectly and has been a shambles since. I cannot view the dates of the tolls or the car that I was paying for. The toll was Ā£2 for regular users but is now Ā£2.50 according to the website. My balance is Ā£19.17 but should be a multiple of 2.50 or Ā£2. Only 3 axle vehicles pay a toll with 17 pence on the end and last time I looked my cars had 2 axles. When I tried to offer feedback, that didn’t work either.
The civil servants have claimed to offer an improved “service’ but have turned the tolling tax into an impenetrable shambles and probably overcharging.
October 21, 2023
Thanks for the tip Stred, Im going to check all my crossing bills now.
October 21, 2023
You can only find pre set payment dates. You used to be able to check vehicle crossing and toll amount.
October 21, 2023
“if frustrated Conservatives vote Reform they can tip the balance between a Conservative and a Labour MP but they are miles off winning a seat even in by election conditions.”
All vey well but that is just the maths of FPTP. What these voters want is conservative policies and they are not getting them from the Conservative party and neither is there any prospect of getting them from the Conservative Party. Voting Conservative is not only rewarding failure but perpetuating bad government that is doing harm to the country. The Party needs to develop and agree a conservative philosophy of government and apply it whole heartedly to the national interest. If defeat is the only way to make the Party do this the only question is devastating must be that defeat before it accepts the need to adopt conservative policies? Labour may be bad but hardly worse than the current Tory Party. An electoral thrashing won’t change Labour but it might change the Tories and it is perfectly clear that rewarding them with an electoral win would probably make them even worse than they are at present.
Thrashing the Tory Party is the patriotic thing to do. There is the added bonus for the Tories that a popular Reform party shows clearly to the Conservative Party what truly conservative policies look like. Watch and learn. The Tories can win only by emulating Reform.
October 21, 2023
@Peter Gardner; “What these voters want is conservative policies”
Your values are unlikely to be my values, appeal to much to one and the Party have lost the others vote; and that was the skill of Margret Thatcher, she was able to appeal to both her own supporters and those still doting on Ted Heath (or in my case, Macmillan!), that no longer seems to be acceptable or perhaps even achievable in the post Brexit Tory party…
As things stand, I will be one of those sitting on my hands at the next GE.
October 21, 2023
PG,
Complete annihilation rather than thrashing may be necessary.
If a party is just reinventing itself to keep power, you eventually lose all the conviction politicians and end up with self-interested, careerist chancers.
Better such a party goes the way of The Whigs.
October 21, 2023
+1 but before elections they pretend to be a bit more Conservative. Once elected they revert to incompetent tax, borrow and piss down the drain, con-socialists.
October 21, 2023
Correct. Reform voters have understood the WEF strategy so beloved of the Blue-Green and Red-Green branches of the Uni-Party: if you want a Great Reset and to build back better, first the existing settlement has to be destroyed.
We will never get Conservative policies from the Blue-Green Socialists who have taken over the Conservative Party.
October 21, 2023
Soubry has has openly given Labour her support. She was one of many who wants to overturn the historic mandate to leave the EU.
October 21, 2023
Exactly – if the true Tories jumped ship to Reform they would keep their seats.
After my Tory MP did not attend Andrew Bridgen’s debate yesterday, I emailed her and wished her an “enjoyable retirement next year” because I will never vote Conservative again.
October 21, 2023
So much for free speech and freedom of thought.. in the Uni Party.
October 21, 2023
They would not. They would lose their seats.
October 21, 2023
Peter, Reform couldnāt even win against Theresa May! If they thought they could theyād put their strongest characters up against Tory turncoats. But theyāve only got a handful.
October 21, 2023
Well said Peter.š¤š»
October 21, 2023
No. This is the equivalent of PR, where the tail wags the dog. Poland finds that the new coalition, which nobody wanted, Tusk, is going to take them into the Euro – which nobody wanted. Just saying.
October 21, 2023
Quite right, Lynn. Tusk was considered such a loser by his backers, the British broadcasters, that they never mentioned the Polish election all the way through the campaign until the exit poll – when they suddenly woke up and realized he could form a coalition of all the losers.
October 21, 2023
I am a frustrated Conservative and it did not take two by-elections to realise that the Conservative Party is a shambles. Labour seems set to win the next GE irrespective of any bleeding of Conservative votes to Reform, so we might just as well throw in our lot and vote for a Party which at least sticks to the principles of Conservatism. It must be Reform.
October 21, 2023
Your view is echoed up and down the country. We know the Tory policies and attitude exercised by the Westminster representatives is bad. We know the ‘official’ NET Zero is wrong and economically a suicide note. We know so called Tories, who are as woke/Green as the socialist economic destroyers currently travelling under the umbrella of the LIbLabGreen coalition. We know Labour will be better at destroying the economy than the Tories, have been. Hard to believe I know, but history provides the evidence and Starmer has not got a clue about anything or have an opinion he has not been instructed to hold by the party paymasters/WEF/EU.
Serious questoin, where is the downside of voting Reform?
October 21, 2023
Reform are spreading themselves too thinly to effectively concentrate on a top 60 seats where they could actively take out people they wouldnāt want in power at all. But no, theyāre playing games and will give people Labour MPs so instead of a centre right party, they will get a left pro EU party who want to join us back at the hip.
October 21, 2023
I think there are always conflicting issues at play in the voters mind. For instance, whilst I haven’t seen too many (any?) measures from this Government that make me want to applaude them, I have a high degree of loyalty to my local MP (who happens to be Sir John). Frankly I never had too much time for Cameron, Mrs May was a complete disaster and Boris his own worst enemy (coupled with uncosted, poorly thought through ‘green’ policies to boot). Should Sir John stand again, I’ll support him again. Should he stand down, I’d be very tempted to vote Reform.
It’s simple really, I will not vote Labour (or Lib Dem) and don’t really want to show support for an admistration that seems unable to to get back to what I’d view as conservative policies. I do beleive in the need to vote and will do so. As a thought, just imagine if all those ‘Conservative’ voters who stayed at home, had actually turned our but voted Reform, that would have upset the apple cart (for both Sunak & Starmer) wouldn’t it?
October 21, 2023
I appreciate your position IanT and were I in JR’s constituency, he would get my vote. However a notable exception!
October 21, 2023
Just vote Labour because thatās what Reform delivers. Have the guts to do that if thatās what you want. Else deselect your Tory candidate and select one you want! One for whom you can vote.
October 21, 2023
To me it is clear Labour will win whatever the circumstances. The value of a vote for Reform is that it of course strengthens their overall showing, and also vitally weakens the present Conservative Party, giving an impetus for the Tories to realign and indeed reform.
October 21, 2023
Yes Kinnock thought so too a few elections ago. Then the electorate intervened.
It was clear to Farage that Remain had won the Referendumā¦ now he āwill be very surprised if he is not the leader of the Tories by 2026ā šš¤£ heās been angling and negotiating for a Tory seat for DECADES!
October 21, 2023
Let Reform because JR is a lone ignored voice in his own party. We share many of his views but his party and govt definitely do not. It is not a question of guts, it is a question of voting for who you want in power. JR will not be in power or hold any influence. Reform would uphold conservative policies.
October 21, 2023
JR and the few Tories beat May and got Brexit. Itās not complete but it canāt be reversed and it will be completed. Why would you not expect it to be a long and hard fight? It was existential – still is.
October 21, 2023
And yet and yet, both S&P and Moodyās credit rating agencies now have dropped their negative outlook on the UK taking a positive view on the actions of the post 14 Octoberā22 Chancellor. Will be interesting to see what Fitch says on 01/12.
Or all those CRAs part of the WEF conspiracy?
October 21, 2023
There is no conspiracy. Sunak-Hunt are doing what those running the global financial order have publicly stated they want done: reset economies along ESG lines. No surprise if Wall Street’s credit rating agencies approve.
October 21, 2023
Yes, the bond markets are in greater “crisis” now than under Miss Truss, but far from giving it saturation coverage and demanding the PM and Chancellor go, there has been a mysterious upgrading of the UK’s credit rating! Now who could possibly have arranged that?
October 21, 2023
hefner
Whilst I understand your point, these are the same credit rating agencies which gave securities backed by useless mortgages excellent ratings.
Their ratings bear no relation to reality whatsoever. Unfortunately they are a belwether for major investment bodies (which itself speaks volumes about the competence of those investors…)
October 21, 2023
Hef,
Ratings agencies did not see the crash coming! If they did how did they help? I would not stake my life on anything they say or model they produce.
I think rather than rely on rating agencies you would be better i formed by putting your fingers in the air or cross them and hope,
October 21, 2023
hefner : āOr all those CRAs part of the WEF conspiracy?ā
Yes, and why not?
One of advantage of Labour winning the next GE is that we will all be feeling much better because the MSM, led by the BBC, Parliament, the civil service, the Treasury and all the institutions, NGOs, and quangos will be reporting just how much better life is and cancelling/stifling/censoring any and all bad news and any dissenting views.
The Online Harms Bill and Ofcom will be employed to full extent.
October 21, 2023
How much faith do you have in Credit Reference Agencies? If they employ the same sort of economists that the OBR do then I have no faith at all.
What positive actions do you believe they liked the most Hefner?
The raise in corporation tax (more than 25% increase) above our closest competitive neighbour by a 10% margin (15% compared to 25%).
A freeze in all thresholds promised for years ahead?
What particular things did our masters in the CRA and above appreciate.
October 21, 2023
They all had a positive rating when Truss was cutting taxes. It became negative when Hunt took over.
October 21, 2023
The message from the Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire by-elections is clear. Vote Reform and let the Labour candidate in. Or the Liberal Democrat.
Of those usually Tory voters who did go out to vote, overwhelmingly they did so tactically, for opposition parties. By-election results in the UK are not normaly replicated at a general election, but if these swings were, the Conservatives would be reduced to a rump of about 40 MP’s. The Liberal Democrats would become the official opposition.
Giving tax cuts to the rich is not going to secure the votes of millions of renters, nor the votes of the 3 million folk who are living off food banks. For them, Labour offers change, and hope
October 21, 2023
I’m afraid all that Labour offers those people dependent on food banks SG, is more of the same. I’ve heard nothing from Starmer or Reeves that gives me any confidence that they can sort our economy out, in fact quite the opposite. For instance, so called ‘green jobs’? Well, we will need a lot of those just to offset the ones that will be lost in the name of Net Zero, after all why make anything here, when you can simply import it with a zero carbon foot print? Big State costs money and Labour has always meddled in everyday life – but more state costs more and requires heavier taxation. Unfortunately, Mr Hunt seems to be chained to the same fiscal orthodoxy, which may be why folk don’t see any point in voting for his government – to get more of the same.
October 21, 2023
Few who live āoff food banksā vote Tory anyway. The Tories need to get their own vote out, it is the majority.
October 21, 2023
Sir John,
I think every Conservative thinking person knows what is wrong with and what needs to be done by the so called Conservative Party but, the PCP with few exceptions support real Conservative Policies.
I don’t think Labour will have as big a victory as everyone seems to expect but, the thought of a huge block of envious lefties in power led by Starmer, scares me but we get the government we deserve.
October 21, 2023
Sorry to be blunt Sir John but whatever the problem, your solution is always Tax Cuts! š
The issue is not so basic, many people are now not only Woke but also woke, and by that I mean many people have ‘Woken-up’ to fiscal deceit and lies that often fuels social inequality, even if they have bought into ideas about climate change etc. Not sure if you are simply deleting such usage now but it is noticeable that even on this site were derogatory speech used to be rife it is now rarely seen, hard-times are a great leveler.
As I’ve said before, all to often tax cuts are meaningless for those who do not exceed their personal allowance(s), or for those who can’t afford a deposit say, any Stamp Duty cut is just salt in the wound; and for those who can afford to buy today, such a cut might cause property values to rise, meaning they can no longer afford their dream. If there is fiscal room for tax cuts, cut fuel duty, cut VAT or other universally paid indirect taxes, whatever a persons income level.
But no amount of tax cuts will help if the problem is a perception that the parliamentary Conservative Party is simply not fit to be in government, 1964 & 1997 style.
October 21, 2023
All good ideas John but what exactly have the Tories been doing over the past 13 years other than the exact opposite of what you suggest they do over the coming months? We are sick of gesture politics. What we want is genuine political progress towards a better more comfortable more peaceful more lawful future.
It looks increasingly unlikely the Woke LibLabCon party currently marking time in Westminster have any plans to do what the public want and need them to do.
October 21, 2023
Your conclusions are correct, but I would add, drop consocialism and start acting like Conservatives. Somehow the label has fallen off the tin and nobody knows what it contains.
Do not write off Reform before they have even started, after all they are real CONSERVATIVES, a phylosophy your party have abandoned along with its grass root support. I detect a wiff of fear. That it opens the door to useless Labour is your fault in spades for not fulfilling your promises, and doing it quite deliberately. The one positive that comes from a Labour victory is that they have every opportunity to hang themselves as they always do. As for Reform being miles off a victory, remember the Brexit Party at our last euros. It is a simple matter of getting the message across to an electorate that has experience in spades of the incompetence of socialism, witness Birmingham, Wales and Scotland plus of course the sheer perfidiousness of ersatz conservatives. We are living with it daily.
October 21, 2023
JR, you are pretty much spot on with this post.
However, I’ll also add – as others have – the Net Zero lunacy, increasing lawlessness and crime, plus the NHS.
I’m not against ‘going green’, however I don’t believe the financial cost of doing so should be lumbered on already financially struggling individuals. It is also a complete waste of time whilst higher polluting countries fail to do their share – why don’t ‘Just Stop Oil’ protest in China and the Middle East, if they were that serious about their cause!
Lawlessness and crime. It really does seem that some people can think they can go around doing what they want (outside of the law) and not be challenged, nor arrested for it. Is it acceptable that retailers have to incur increasing losses due to shoplifting, with the Police refusing to act. More losses for the retailers, means higher prices for us in the longer term – as they will simply pass on the losses to customers.
The NHS. It is given more than enough public money. It should not be wasting money on non-jobs, cosmetic surgery or treating people who aren’t entitled to use it (which does happen). Also the ridiculous of waiting weeks to see a GP, plus unacceptable waiting times for life saving treatment needs to be addressed.
Many Conservatives look to the likes of Reform as they offer a more Conservative policy than the Conservatives do nowadays. It doesn’t take much to understand, nor work out why the Conservative party is faltering. However, it just seems the leadership are ignorant to this and what people want.
October 21, 2023
The first message is that people should not vote Conservative just because they are slightly better than something even worse: Labour.
The second message is that people should vote Reform if they want reform. Claiming that Reform cannot win seats is a prediction without substantiation. The Unexpected happens because it is Unexpected.
The third message is that Cu5 taxes are literally as careless as Y elections. Beyond those SJR is usually right on virtually all matters.
October 21, 2023
The message to the Tories from Reform at the next election should be similar to the messsage from the Brexit party at the last one. Adopt a Conservative policy platform and we’ll stand down in the seats you can win. Don’t adopt a Conservative policy platform, we won’t stand down, and you will lose massively. It’s up to your party, SJR, to get on that winnning platform. Last time it was getting Brexit done, next time it will be scrap net zero policy deadlines. You don’t have much time left, if you want to have any chance of keeping enough seats for the next government.
October 21, 2023
What does it matter which ‘platform’ they adopt when if elected they can just revert to WEF vassaldom?
October 21, 2023
Sir John you keep on about reducing LEGAL immigration which is not the real issue. ILLEGAL immigration is THE problem, and nothing is done except to keep handing France more Ā£millions.
Until immediate action to push back the dinghies, reject the obvious claimants, load up the exit aircraft….your Party will not recover from a wipeout not seen for many a year, decade?
9.02
October 21, 2023
Illegal immigration is annoying because it is provocative, but it is a fraction of legal immigration.
October 21, 2023
Since both the Blue-Green Socialists and the Red-Green Socialists are simply puppets of the WEF, you could interpret the failure of tens of thousands of voters to endorse either branch of the Uni-Party as a rejection of the WEF and all its policies.
The electorate has noticed that there is virtually no difference between the Establishment Parties and it doesn’t matter which way they vote, the policies won’t change. So why bother voting?
Sunak thinks allowing “the peasants” another five years to save up for an exploding EV or useless heat pump is offering choice. But the Net Zero Lunacy, which will cost Ā£trillions and do NOTHING to affect the climate, is written on tablets of stone and can’t be changed.
Well REFORM thinks it can, along with a great deal else … but not by endorsing the current manifestation of Blue-Green Socialists who call themselves Conservatives but are anything but.
October 21, 2023
I’m a true Thatcherite, just like our host, but I don’t think those posting here calling for full-on Thatcherite policies appreciate just how much the electorate have changed. We have been lumbered with centre-left policies for so long that the electorate has gone soft. Anyone who stood on a programme of self reliance with low taxes and benefits would probably not be elected today. Even friends in their early 50s who have been successful in their careers, natural Thatcherites, you would think, support benefits and want to see a more caring society.
Yes, we would like to see a sea change, but we need to be realistic about what is achieveable :
Lower Corporation Tax, Yes
Statutory automatic indexing of income tax bands. Definitely.
Much reduced net migration, targeting 100,000 maximum by the end of the next parliament. Essential.
A greater role for private medicine to reduce the load on the failing NHS, Yes
Maintain gas boilers indefinitely and drop the idea of Heat Pumps for the majority of homes. Common sense.
Motorist-friendly policies all round in appreciation that from 2040 driving an EV will be green transport.
That means building more roads rather than expensive railways which are inevitably held to ransom by the two Micks, Whelan and Lynch, and their their communist fellow travellers.
October 21, 2023
All the care in the world ābutters no parsnipsā. You can only help if you have the means. Only Capitalism provides the means.
October 21, 2023
Of course we realise that voting Reform might let a Labour government in. But whatās the alternative? A continuation for years and years to come of the socialist government we have now?
October 21, 2023
@Ex-Tory; That’s akin to cutting off your own nose to spite some else’s face! We don’t like Socialism-lite so let’s sabotage the Conservative party so we get Full Fat Socialism, doing so much damage in the process the opposition will likely be in power for a generation. You lot are reading from the Militant Tendency play-book of the early 1980s, didn’t work out to well for the ‘Tendency did it, what makes you think you’ll fare any better?
October 21, 2023
The honest alternative is voting Labour. Be honest at least with yourself.
October 23, 2023
The Electorate should make their judgement and vote, stop guessing at who might be worse.
For 13 years this fear has taken us down that road. Time to test it!
October 21, 2023
When you shoot the messenger it only confirms you exist in central office laa laa land.
October 21, 2023
Mr Sunak was not elected by the public or even the party members, he is not popular and his escapades (in Egypt for the spectacular loss off two by-election) are labelled as cowardice.
His policies are mixture of timidity, lack of vision and do not solve any issue (illegal immigration, economic growth ).
His 1 year grace is over, start writing the letters.
October 21, 2023
@Elli; I guess some are still smarting from not only loosing Johnson but also loosing Truss a year ago, both of who crashed the economy, one by excessively unguarded spending during Covid (yes I know Sunak as Chancellor signed off on it but top-dog always taken the can from the shareholders), the other due to un-costed tax cuts that made the Markets imitate a quivering Jelly.
No one within the Parliamentary or wider Party got to vote because Sunak was unopposed, those on the Johnson/Truss wing of the Party have no one else to blame than themselves. even a stalking horse would have been better that nothing!
October 21, 2023
Off topic, but for those who missed it, here is the Hansard record of Andrew Bridgen’s speech about excess deaths in Parliament yesterday. About a dozen MPs bothered to turn up. Represent us? Only in your dreams.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2023-10-20/debates/69C5A514-9A04-4ED7-B56B-61A3D40E3226/TrendsInExcessDeaths
October 21, 2023
@Donna; Indeed, and all said with Parliamentary privilege. So until such time when the said MP chooses to make the same comments outside on College Green…
October 21, 2023
The main message from the two by elections is that the Conservative government has not been listening to the electorate for 13 years and is about to reap the consequences.
As they deserve to do, because mismanagement and failure on this scale cannot be rewarded by being retained in office when there has never been any prospect of change.
October 21, 2023
I have read in the Telegraph this morning, a report that an asylum seeker wh arrived here in 2020 has committed an unspecified terrorist attack “for Palestine” No details of the attack, the consequences or even the date have been released. The same sparse details are repeated on the LBC and Daily Mail websites,
The public have a right to know what is happening in our own country and this places us on a slippery slope towards full-blown state control of the news. That is unacceptable in any circumstances.
October 21, 2023
@ChrisS; Not unusual for the same story to be reported by multiple news outlets, that in its self does not give any higher credence to the story, it just proves many news outlets subscribe to the same newswires and that such copy sells…
“this places us on a slippery slope towards full-blown state control of the news. That is unacceptable in any circumstances.”
Nonsense, the Police and security forces have every right to withhold operational information, at such times we have no right to know anything. DSMA-Notices exist for very good reasons, if indeed they have been used here, and as I understand the subject they are advisory, editors make their own judgements, unlike say court orders that prevent the disclosure of information.
October 21, 2023
Javid, a Moslem, has called for the expulsion of all Hamas supporters during the debate a couple of days ago. Heās scared. We should listen because we were in uncharted waters.
Germany and Sweden are ārepatriating Hamas supporters on a huge scale. Why?
October 23, 2023
why? we’ve just got a taste of UK supporters and their activities. Never mind the slaughter of the innocents, and 200+ kidnapped as hostages (to what end?) – now we see what we allow to walk through Customs day after day.
Any conflict in the WORLD and UK has plenty of immigrants to stir up trouble and disrupt others going about their lawful business.
Legal action required to curb the STOP this ,stop that.
October 21, 2023
It says to me that the Tory party should start putting up people in constituencies that conservatives like and know to get more on your team, eg Ben Habib, Richard Tice, instead you give us libdems, as you know John you can only truly reform in a large group otherwise you are just sidelined and the right wing more so than any just look at Poland. Why canāt you rally 25% of your conservative MPs to your economic cause, it is worrying that you canāt. Which Tory MPs donāt support your last paragraph, (seriously).
October 21, 2023
@a-tracy; Except those two names would very likely send many a true Conservative running for the hills!
“just look at Poland”
Yes, let’s look at Poland, were the right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS) have just lost the general election after 8 years in govt, 8 years of supposed massively popular ‘populist reforms’. I guess you can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time…
October 21, 2023
Jerry, even Farage seems popular in Lincoln š¤·āāļø. I like Ben Habib, I think Reform are a waste of time for anyone, there are lots of Tories that send me running for the hills, there are more labour MPs that send me running for the hills.
PiS were still the most popular party, the other smaller parties have stitched them up, personally I donāt think that should be allowed, I believe the parliament should be with the correct number of MPs from each elected party.
October 22, 2023
@a-tracy; The smaller parties have not stitched the PiS up, the electors have! The Polish parliament will have the correct number of MPs from the correct Parties when it re-assembles, but PiS do not have enough of their own MPs to form an outright majority.
Yes PiS could claim to have a mandate to remain in office as the largest Party, but they would not be in power, they would not be able to get their polices through parliament on their own, nor are there enough similar minded MPs from other Parties to form a voting-pact, at least not democratically. Hence PiS have conceded – that’s democracy, not conspiracy (theory). Sorry but at times I do start to wonder if some people actually understand the meaning of the word “democracy”. š
October 22, 2023
Thatās why I donāt like PR. To clarify I believe the leading party (with the most MPs) should lead the new government, they should have seats at the top decision making table, not just sit in opposition stitched up with back room deals. Why should their voters be ignored. In this Country even with a whopping 80 seat majority Boris couldnāt get loads through, they were blocked by the Lords, by an unelected Supreme Court, you are right I donāt think we are getting democracy of that 80 seat majority on the terms of our election!
Are any manifesto promises kept with voting-pacts, even if one or two of those in the voting pact said they wouldnāt do what then goes through, how is that democratic and legitimate?
My biggest problem with this conservative government is we didnāt elect a party to put up corporation tax by over 30%, to freeze thresholds, to not take the whole of the UK out of the EU and they are still messing about around the edges.
October 22, 2023
@a-tracy; You say you do not like PR but then propose the very worst form of PR, just to keep your chosen politicos in power. Would you be spouting such nonsense were it the Polish Marxist Party, rather than PiS loosing power; did you spout such nonsense when Blair could not get policy through the HoL without amendment; did you object to the way the smaller Parties “stitched-up” Callaghan on the night of 28 March 1979, or did you cheer.
Are you honestly suggesting that, if a Party holds an 80 seat majority, they should be free to do as they please, who, what, would stop them passing a law that changes when a general election must be called, or perhaps just ban elections outright, perhaps simply close down parliament, it has happened in Europe before remember. You hate the Lords and the Supreme Court today, I wonder if you will still hate them in 12 months time, when there might well be a Labour or Lab/SNP Govt.
As for the 2019 Conservative Manifesto, or at least what you claim was pledged, it wasn’t Westminster who blocked that pledge but the very Govt you wanted & got. Being a manifesto pledge the government could have used the Parliament Act 1949 to force a no-deal Brexit (although delaying Brexit by one year in doing so), but the reality was to risky for a Unionist and free market Party – as Remain told us back in 2016, stop blaming others for your own impossible pipe dreams! The irony is, we just might have got a no-deal Brexit had Corbyn won… Whatever.
October 23, 2023
Callaghan? Not old enough for that, Jerry, I was still at school.
Blair had a majority throughout his entire term of office. He wasn’t in a coalition at all? What was he stopped doing?
I saw what a coalition did with the Lib Dems when they all tripled English-only tuition fees. I saw that coalition used as an excuse not to keep to manifesto pledges.
I have already said that the government we had in 2016 didn’t keep its promises, my MP didn’t tell us that she would block legislation, that she wanted to overturn leave, and she’s now a Lib Dem a fake.
I don’t ‘hate’ the Lords. Why are you putting words in my mouth? I said they should be elected a representation of voter’s wishes, not ex-politicians appointees. The only thing they should be is on a party list.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the Supreme Court. I don’t ‘hate’ anything, Jerry are you projecting a behaviour of yours onto me?
I believe it was pledged the UK would ‘leave the European Union’ and the whole of the UK together. I agree about Corbyn. I think he would have gone for a ‘no-deal Brexit’ I think Corbyn is a man of conviction he defied his own party whip around 400 times, I’m personally not that keen on his idealogy.
October 21, 2023
You know how to win the next election but your government colleagues do not. We cannot sustain them in office even when the alternative is Sir Starmer and his similarly inadequate pals.
October 21, 2023
You have forgotten to add to you’re list of todo’s, ASAP!
Support of the Self Employed, Contractors, Owner Drivers, and Family SME’s!
Reforming IR35, Supply-side, Transport Reg for one truck Owner Drivers (Ease up entry), de-regulate some quango’s (Force water company’s to clean up, and invest), and a strong competitions regulator, especially regulate India (Steel Making) and China dumping!
Increase activity rate: Balanced cuts;
Cuts; Spending on Net Zero, Green Subsidies, International Aid, Civil Services, Council services and debt, Horizon, Pension capital allowances,
Cuts; Corp, VAT, VAT thresholds, Fuel duty, NI, Council Rates,
Longer term costs; House building regulation costs, Vehicle Insurance, Accountancy costs (Move Limited Liability to Sole Trader structure), so on…!
So much todo, removing the rigid Single Market and Customs Union structure!
It would be important, for Brexitees, to un-align from EU before GE, if you want their Vote?
Come out of ECHR, ASAP!
Show willingness!
BR,
RDM
October 21, 2023
I started to feel sorry for ambitious Sunak he is so bad. Much worse than I thought heād be. Europe seems to like him, Biden seems to like him, he hasnāt time to start to get everything to improve for 2025 by impoverishing people in 2023/24 so what is he up to with all his new pals. He and his wife will just float away.
October 21, 2023
I think he will obtain his green card and relocate to California. No real loyalty here for the one who calls himself the son-in-law to India. Perhaps JR and other MPs turned a blind eye, but that gave a stark message not to vote for Sunak. He sold out our nation to EU with his Windsor sell out, of course smoke screened to claim something different to what it was. Totally untrustworthy.
October 21, 2023
A-T – do not fell sorry for ANY of them, they are ALL Globalists and YOU are irrelevant. in their eyes.
October 21, 2023
āThe secondary message is if frustrated Conservatives vote Reform they can tip the balance between a Conservative and a Labour MP but they are miles off winning a seat even in by election conditions.ā
All current Parliamentary parties support Net Zero and mass immigration [I see, Sir John, that you did not include cancelling Net Zero as one of your suggested policies] so for me there is absolutely no point in voting for any of these parties.
The only way I can possibly get a party to speak on my behalf in Parliament is to vote for Reform, hopefully together with many others, even if Reform fail to gain even one seat at the next GE
This is because there is a chance that votes for Reform will cause a much reduced Conservative Party in the next Parliament to act like an opposition and at least scrutinise the Net Zero and mass immigration policies of an incoming Labour administration. At the moment there is no opposition to Net Zero and mass immigration as all parties have the same policies.
And if the Conservative Party MPs in the next Parliament are still full of Net Zero and mass immigration supporting MPs, then I would expect Reform to be able to gain Parliamentary seats in by-elections or the following GE, from an much reduced and ineffective opposition party.
October 21, 2023
To describe the Tories as “toast” is to disparage toast.
The Conservative Party hasn’t been conservative since it chose David Cameron as leader.
Canada provides the model for the future of conservatism in the UK and it’s a model in which scarcely any of the current lot will find a home.
October 21, 2023
ā¦John Major ā¦.
October 21, 2023
It is simple really the Conservative Party got what it deserved, for not listening to the majority of the people.
One of the lowest State Pensions in Europe and the developed World, and now due to frozen tax allowances, many now pay tax on it. !
One of the highest Corporation Tax rates, but they expect investment.
A nuclear Power that cannot even stop an invasion of unarmed rubber boats.
4 star hotel accommodation for illegals, whilst ex servicemen live on the streets.
Highest taxes in history, yet they expect disposable income to go up and be spent to keep the economy afloat..
Printed money like it was going out of fashion, then wonder why its value has reduced.
Councils getting more and more income from Council tax but most services are declining.
Most roads now disgrace as pot holes take over, but white and yellow lines increase, as do speed humps (with ragged edges)
ULEZ schemes enforced on the population along with 20MPH zones (which increase pollution)
Everything but almost everything the Government is involved with appears to be a shambles.
Then we have Candidates dropped in from Central office,
The above just the tip-off the iceberg of failures.
Clueless, absolutely clueless.
October 21, 2023
Very comprehensive list, but you forgot “Opposing” Cultural Marxism/Woke by appeasing it at every opportunity.
And refusing to deal with blatant BBC bias.
October 21, 2023
+1
October 21, 2023
Nothing will improve for the Conservatives until the party returns to being traditional Conservatives. Trouble is the leaders and most of the MPs have no idea what Conservatism is. Certainly the PM lives in a world and beliefs of his own, if he has any. He looks at lists and choses from notes which he has read which say are Conservative values, but he has no feeling for them and they just have ratings as to how many votes each might have.
Why be loyal to him, he is just leading the party and country to disaster as Labour will win with him as PM and his hangers around and grovelling supporters. It’s no good writing ‘reasonable’ pieces – it is time to be more aggressive in seeking change. Let’s face it, you’ve got nothing to lose by doing this.
October 21, 2023
Sir John
As a Conservative you can keep banging out the Conservative message, but the problem is we have a hard core Socialist Government, that doesnāt listen to their electorate.
We have 14 years of Conservative Government pushing further and further to the left, listening to ill informed foreign influencers, bowing to the demands of foreign States, sending UK money abroad to support corrupt regimes. Little by little they have salami sliced away the UK, and the meaning of Conservatism. Now they have disenfranchised over half the electorate ā which Socialist WEF ruled party do you want to vote for? The one that is Socialist or the one pretending to be? That is the only choice offered today. Suicide or death is a similar choice
Politics for the most part is a religion, as such your religion is Socialism or Freedom. The bulk of the People just donāt swap around, it is just about 6% that move and that is enough to throw an election.
It is not a case of those in the excitative changing direction, they have been to left wing for too long they wouldnāt know how to change. A sound-bite here another there will do nothing, the Conservative Party need to get a grip do some serious house cleaning and make sure they have Conservatives in the Government that represent the people that vote for them. 100% of this Government should go, they own 100% of the collective failure that they have foisted on the Country.
October 21, 2023
What is not getting through to voters is that there is an alternative to the failed big 3 parties, which have all failed us. There are right of centre parties out there to replace what we have now.
There is no point in voting in labour or libdem, as their policies are worse than the current governments. Why can’t more people see that.
The only possible future this country has is to get rid of the Westminster swamp, notwithstanding that there are still decent MPs in Parliament but they will be judged by what their leaders have done, do or say.
October 21, 2023
The By-Elections results are an important signal of the disappointment and mistrust that exists in our present leadership . Getting rid of Boris was right but since then the initiative that the country badly needed in the wake of Covid and the aftermath of the war in Ukraine was not established by Sunak and his Cabinet . The economy needs stimulation and control but this balance is missing . Industry and commerce are the backbone of employment and they have no stimulation for some time . The Sunak/Hunt relationship has stuck to a regime influenced by bodies that have failed in their predictions and the dissent in the Conservative ranks has not been observed ; the result has hit the public badly and only an extreme turn-around can solve the crisis .
October 21, 2023
There has been an attack, but the wretched government refuses to reveal anything more. They show their utter unfittedness as well as their regard for the population.
October 21, 2023
But they did vote labour and not only for the reasons you give Sir John
The Ukraine and Palestinian issue is in a lot of peoples minds and how the Government stands on these issues. More make war not peace.
Likewise the Government hands out billions to everyone else except its own citizens who pay tax and it’s their Ā£billions not the Politician’s
Better a conservative voter puts an X for the REFORM party rather than not vote at all.
Your Loyalty to the Conservative party is no longer justified and you are a better fit with the Reform Party and the Lot from TalkTV and GB News š
October 21, 2023
There is only one change the Conservative Party can make which will make any real difference to Conservative prospects which is changing their Leader preferably now. The truth is the even if Sunak changes policy by making another U-turn that would have negligible credibility because he now has a dismal record and people will rightly conclude that once the election is over he could well U-turn back again. Sunak just has no core personal support from the electorate and practically no credibilty with them and in this respect is even worse than Theresa May. He is living in a world of maya (the Indian word for delusion) that he can somehow win the next general election and it is time that despite all the polling evidence Conservative M.P.s stopped living in Sunak’s world of maya. They must choose carefully in selecting the next Leader who can set a new direction, in particular forsaking their particular flavour of the month for somebody who can cut it with the British public.
October 21, 2023
With 24,000 *former* Conservative voters staying at home in mid Beds, it seems glib to simply assume that they will either vote Conservative or abstain at the next GE.
If Reform get their message across, there are 24,000 disillusioned voters there to be persuaded that if you’re not going to vote for parties you dislike, you may as well vote for a party that offers the policies you do like when the alternative is to say/do nothing.
It seems to me to be a gargantuan error for the Conservatives to rely on historical electoral arithmetic re-asserting itself in perpetuity, while they behave as socialists in blue rosettes. The difference here is that we have never had such a pink Conservative government before on so many fronts (net zero, taxes, wokery, immigration, non-Brexit etc). Th level of harm is new territory, the Conservatives are simply not seeing it as such.
** Note that when I say “former” Conservative voters, I am taking excepton to the author’s description of them as “Conservative voters” even when they didn’t vote Conservative in the latest election. That smacks of complacency – the Conservtive Party increasingly reminds me of the Liberal Party in 1928, who went from being one of the parties of government to electoral oblivion simply due to entering coalition with Labour. That was almost a century ago and, as we can see, the electorate has never forgiven them.
The key issue is that there is no-one left to vote for in teh Conservative Party. All the worthwhile people who might make decent leaders (who would appeal to voters of a conservative mindset) have been ejected or sidelined (Boris, Truss, Bridgen, Raab, even yourself – along with others such as Dorries who have been driven out). Others are under constant attack from bullying allegations etc, supported by the weakling in No 10.
And now, the Kangaroo Court has permanently elected the Marsupial-in-Chief who defenstrated Boris. How many more will she get before the next GE?
What is going on in politics these days beggars belief. People will vote to change all this sooner or later – my reading of the elections is that right now, they’re at the stage of just sitting at home mulling it over. Look at those numbers – 24,000 out of 36,000. That’s enormous. Don’t assume they’re all coming back.
October 21, 2023
If Labour and the Lib Dems were smart enough to not field candidates in constituencies they have no hope of winning, Mr. Redwood, and many Tory MPs, will be out of a job after the next election.
Even without Labour and the Lib Dems engaging their brains, itās going to be a Labour landslide. Weirdly, very weirdly, hardly any Tories are bothered by this. It will be a very low turnout from Tory voters and a high turnout from the rest. Iām trying to imagine a busting with Sunak pleading with Tory voters to turn out – and those voters saying āWhatās the point – youāre not a Conservativeā.
As someone who, to be honest, has pretty much despised the Tory Party all my life, Iām eagerly awaiting the wipeout. That said, Labour will finish the woke, high tax, net zero lunacy and my eldest son will no doubt join my youngest in Australia. Iām just hoping I can wangle my way in.
October 21, 2023
Mike Wilson : “Weirdly, very weirdly, hardly any Tories are bothered by this” [a Labour Landslide]
This is because most Tory Mps are fully supportive of most of Labour’s policies such as Net Zero and mass immigration.
October 22, 2023
Mike, do you honestly believe Labour will finish the woke lunacy,
Labour will finish net zero lunacy,
Labour will finish high tax?
Are you not listening to them?
October 21, 2023
SirJ I fully agree with your assessment
October 21, 2023
I like the fact that you told us your honest assessment
October 21, 2023
I simply do not trust the Labour party and have been unable to vote for them since the seventies.
Unfortunately the Conservative party is now just as bad as Labour.
The Greens and Lib-Dems are climate obsessed numpties.
That leaves me with a simple choice. Reform or don’t vote at all.
What a mess this country has become.
October 21, 2023
I’ve been wondering if a good tactic for Reform would be to argue that (rather than not voting at all) a vote for Reform would be a good ‘none of the others’ signal. The two party system tends to hold because people think that “they won’t win, so no point in voting for them” but Reform don’t need to win to get change. If they could take even one or two seats, I think that would be good start for them and might lead to some serious soul searching in CPHQ.
There is also much talk of the CP being divided but how many of their current MPs were selected by their constituents and how many would really be much more at home in the Lib Dems or Greens? Maybe some time away from power will enable the CP to find MPs who better reflect conservative (small c) values, because many of the current batch don’t seem to have them. Fortunately, some (Anna Soubry comes to mind) have already changed flags – need a few more to do so I think…
October 21, 2023
Nigel Farage is quoted as saying that āhe will be very surprised if he is not the Leader of the Conservatives by 2026ā!
Phew – I had no idea things were that desperate! šš¤£
October 22, 2023
If it were a choice between Farage, Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Denyer/Ramsay, Johnson, uncle tom cobley etc
I’d have to go with Farage the only one who seems to have any identity with the electorate and their lot.
October 22, 2023
MT, other than watching NF in front of posters or in an accident I hadnāt actually listened to him very much. GB News has given me an opportunity to listen to him for the first time.
He is a contrary individual, he likes to provoke without being able to provide any fixes. This thing with the boat people and the immigrants he has been banging on about it when they were crossing in the back of lorries but has no solutions he couldnāt force France to take them back, he would be up against the same lawyers and organisations, and the court of human rights, the UN, the world media. He wouldnāt get leaving the ECHR through the Lords, past the Supreme Court, he would be tied up in the same knots.
Heāll pose a glaringly obvious problem without having to follow through with anything. Thatās why he doesnāt stand in a seat where he could actually win, and why he quit UKIP, he said Ā«Ā weāve wonĀ Ā». That wasnāt true and he knew that, he can blame it on who he wants but would have a world turn on him like it did on Truss, trussing him up.
October 21, 2023
They are at it again
6 October 2022 ā¢ 6:24pm
āPound slumps below $1.12 as tax cut worries grip marketsā – Not true
Bank of Englandās Ā£65bn intervention in bond markets have helped to calm last weekās turmoil. It pinned the blame for the turmoil on Kwasi Kwartengās mini-Budget. While linking Liz Truss to the situation. – Not true
Everyone but the BoE knows it was their failure to control inflation, or even try until it was to late that is a the root of our ills. Also add in their boss covering up his failures while at the FCA, with our money
This Conservative Government says nothing as it hides their own failure to āmanageā
The Establishment that brought us the Socialist Government are frightened they might turn Conservative. That could lead to all the Countries free-loaders having to justify what they are and what they do.
October 21, 2023
Hi sir john
What do we do ?
Don’t want a labour government just look at my Birmingham city council,
But the conservatives have let the country down, can’t even agree with each other,
Failed on our freedom with leaving the EU
Where criminals have priority over people born in this country on housing, NHS treatment, and crime,
The BOE have made made mistakes that we all have to pay for, we have a unelected Prime minister
Thank you.
October 21, 2023
I can’t believe how stupidly arrogant the so called Conservatives have imploded since Boris Johnson’s landslide victory gave them and Britain its voice back. After ordinary people were fed up to the back teeth with broken promises not carried through by “jump ship” Cameron and false hope May reversing and dithering the knives were out for naive Boris.
Liz Truss had the right ideas but had lightweight backing and could not past the deadweight Establishment walks of the BOE, the Treasury, OBR, Civil service, BBC and other media groupthink.
Sunak’s incompetence during the pandemic has manifested itself in the underlying cost of living crisis and then made worse by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
He wasn’t the choice of ordinary Conservatives and yet he ended up not losing but winning to be PM. He may have won but ordinary people see through it especially when cannot deliver anything substantial for both them not what traditional Tories expect.
I think Sir John it is too late to expect he will be as enlightened as your good self sadly.
October 21, 2023
As the majority Conservative MPs have shown that not only can they not pick a competent leader (Mrs May was the previous one appointed unopposed) but they also wonāt support Conservative policies, what we are going to do is this. Either by abstaining or voting Labour we are going to crush the parliamentary Conservative party and throw as many of their MPs as possible out of a job. Then we are going to vote in a new leader from the Conservative wing of the party who will rebuild from the ground up for the one or two parliaments it will take for Starmer to make himself very unpopular.
October 21, 2023
The Establishment, the Collective āBlobā have hit the MsM today(21/10/23) in fear that the Conservatives in the Conservative Party might push for the Party and its Leadership to become Conservative.
We have an installed not a legitimate excitative, running the Country on the WEF Socialist ideals as dictated to them by their overlords. Policies portrayed in election leaflets, repeated on the doorstep to the electorate, have no place. Boris Johnson was removed, but not his Cabinet or his followers ā so we still have BJās failures refusing everything(that is everything) they campaigned to get elected on. Namely it was to be a Conservative Government, in a sovereign self governing democracy, making its own rules, regulations, laws that pertained to things that went on inside the UK and amending and repealing them as would happen in a legitimate democracy. The Establishment blocked all attempts of democracy and for them to be held to account and instead they have dictated Socialist WEF policies, and their installed puppets are compliant.
Those pulling the strings are fearful the UK might wake up and see what a fraud the UKās political system has become. The UK people might wake up to see they are the slaves of people they cant vote for or hold to account. The UK people are asked to vote to create a well managed democratic society, but instead it is refused, they are repeatedly lied to ā democracy is not permitted.
All those that believe what they said at election time are corralled to the back of the room, no matter what they will be ignored. They have not become the new āStepfordā wives, as such they are invisible, to the puppets (or is it muppets).
Those that think that above is all conspiracy, look around, reflect on the last 14years. Read the majority of the other comments on Sir Johnās Diary and elsewhere, then on your own reach the conclusion of what could possibly be the truth.
October 21, 2023
āThe main messages from the two by elections are that many Conservative voters do not like what the government is doing or not doing, nor do they want to vote Labour.ā
Correct.
This is because a majority of voters realise that our current Parliamentary parties, civil service, judiciary, educational establishment, NGOs, quangos and institutions are determined to destroy our social cohesion and culture with mass immigration of people with different values to our own and to destroy our economy with a transition from cheap, abundant and reliable hydrocarbon fuels to expensive, unreliable and chaotically intermittent renewables whilst delivering us into the vice grip of the Chinese through electrification where the Chinese have a majority control over the metals and minerals we need.
There have been no referendum mandates for these either of these massive changes to our prosperity, security and cohesion.
October 21, 2023
This is the worst government and House of Commons in my lifetime and I have experienced many bad ones. Most MPs seem to be happier representing the interests of their globalist masters rather than those they were elected to serve. Just yesterday all but a handful of MPs showed their contempt for their constituents by failing to attend a debate on the appalling number of excess deaths in the UK and across the world following the introduction of the covid-19 vaccinations. The public gallery was reportedly full, shaming all those MPs who couldn’t be bothered to attend and therby demonstrated their lack of care for their constituents health and welfare. This country’s democracy has been usurped by globalists and none of the main parties is worthy of support.
October 21, 2023
“This is all affordable given the way this year tax revenue is well ahead of OBR forecasts”
It might be affordable, but the problem is you advocate this government does this thirteen months before the next election.
Being such a radical departure from what the government has done since the last election, in motoring terms it might be described as an ‘handbrake turn’! Problem with such a maneuver, if you make one such hand-break turn in order to garner votes just before an election, what’s to stop the administration you support from conducting another right after getting an election mandate ?
October 21, 2023
Creative destruction is needed. Most Tory voters think that now. I think it really is over. Your party is in an existential battle – not just about to lose an election but to be abolished.
October 21, 2023
I am someone who has supported, voted and worked for the Conservative Party through thick and thin for decades.
But I will not be voting Conservative at the next election.
The Parliamentary party seem unable to understand what is needed to encourage voters to vote for them.
Popular policies.
According to polls these are:-
Lower income taxes
Lower (and better control over) levels of immigration
Lower levels of inflation.
Lower fuel costs
Increased levels of crime detection
Improvements in NHS service levels.
Improvements in education.
However I do not see any real determination or sense of urgency to achieve these objectives.
It seems this Government is just waiting quietly for the next election so they can politely hand over the keys to number 10 to the Labour Party
October 21, 2023
Conservative voters stayed at home or voted Reform and thus got a Labour MP. They must have been punishing the Conservative Party for its treachery in the only way they have. They were not voting Labour or Liberal.
The question is, what will they do at a general election? The socialists don’t seem at all confident they will vote for them. But will they vote at all? If a year ago the ship had been turned round, there might have been a chance of recovery. But in a year? It would still be worth turnng the ship and leaving some good reforms behind, but the left wing remainiac wreckers in the party wouldn’t pass them.
October 21, 2023
It is already too late for voting, the damage is done. If you look around the world you see that all Western countries are in the same boat as you, with nobody to vote for because the people who run the West have their fingers in every party you want to vote for and control the parties of that country but also the institutions of that country, it cost them billions of dollars, pounds and euro over the years to do it and not forgetting they also own media to which you are always quoting.
How do they do it, it is called democracy, in other words, divide and conquer.
October 21, 2023
paul – Nothing can stop what is coming, NOTHING.
October 21, 2023
what? humiliation at the Cricket – I know.
October 21, 2023
So the āstamp duty holidayā brought in a windfall tax take. Hiking it up dropped the taxes received dramatically, so the Chancellor is thinking of dropping Stamp Duty to increase the tax take.
Now I wonder if the penny will drop or if they think this phenomenon is solely associated with stamp duty? š
October 21, 2023
How to win the next election:
End woke
Stop the boats
Drop the green crap
October 21, 2023
YES
October 21, 2023
I actually don’t think it should be in the prime minister’s gift to give another 2 billion quid to India whenever he feels like it. Proper cabinet government and parliament should have stopped it. The people running the country are a national disgrace. If we could vote to replace everyone in parliament and the senior civil service we would.
October 21, 2023
Just pray that Donald J Trump is rightfully re-instated as the true PRESIDENT of the USA other wise all is irrelevant and we shall all be slaves.
October 21, 2023
Gruniad reports: Jeremy Hunt is expected to stand down as an MP before the next election, according to senior Conservatives, who say the chancellor is aware he could suffer a āMichael Portilloā moment on polling day.
Hunt has already put himself forward and been selected for the new Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, after his South West Surrey seat was dissolved and split into two under boundary changes.
His spokesman said on Friday that his position remained that he would stand. But with his party in increasingly dire straits as byelection defeats mount up, and Labourās poll lead solidifying, several senior sources nationally and locally have told the Observer that they expect him to announce he is stepping down much nearer to the election.
Rumours have been swirling among Surrey Conservatives and at Westminster to this effect, amid cataclysmic predictions of wipeout for several serving cabinet ministers after more than 13 years in power.
—
So its not all bad then.
October 21, 2023
Conservatives in complete meltdown
Jeremy Hunt should resign now and get out of the way
October 21, 2023
It’s far too late to tell us not to vote for Reform.
The Conservatives need to start to prepare for the fall of the next Labour government.
The only way to do that ius to expel the socialists like the Rishi Sunak and many soclialist cabinet colleagues and work out a way of sacking civil service managers who have effectively staged a coup
October 22, 2023
You have a problem. I am Conservative but will be voting Reform at the next election if there is a candidate. If not I will not vote. If you were Leader, I would vote Conservative but not for the one we have. That is one of the problems. He was not a good chancellor (my opinion) and has caused a lot of the monetary and work problems we now have. Finishing off the Leader people voted for and that was Boris, whatever you say about voting for a party, was a big mistake as the manifesto given is not being adhered to which is two faced. Animal Reforms have been jettisoned under this new one – another reason I shall not be voting for the Tories. I am also down Ā£18+ on my small private pension this year so what can I say. Prices are going up, my money is going down and now I hear the culprit (Hunt) is jumping ship as probably been doing CV for other jobs. What more do you want to hear John? You are okay but the rest are not. And poor Braverman – I cry for her trying her best and being ignored.
October 22, 2023
Had I been a voter in either of the two constituencies, I wouldn’t have hesitated to either stay at home, or go down to the polling-station to spoil my ballot-paper and then give a blast to anyone wearing a blue rosette.
The seats could have been held, just, had the Conservatives tried harder; that they didn’t is reason enough to cost the party chairman his post.
‘… or not doing.’ And there was Sir Christopher Chope, in the Commons on Friday, piling-in on a minister for having promised something EIGHT YEARS ago and having done NOTHING. Too many ministers aren’t action-focused – and neither is the PM.
Your list? A good one.
October 22, 2023
The reason that I intend to vote Reform is that I don’t believe that a Labour Government would tax and spend any more than the present Conservative Government. We have had 4 years of Rishi Sunak saying that he is ‘at heart’ a tax cutting Conservative without actually cutting services or shrinking the State so that he can.
There is a pistol at the Prime Minister’s head until we get ACTION on reducing taxation, shrinking the State, proclaiming a population policy and controlling immigration. Never again are Tory Wets going to govern this country.
October 25, 2023
[…] been in the Commons since 1987, he firmly believes in proper Conservative policies, as evidenced by his diary entry from October 21 (purple emphases […]