Some think Mr Burnham is clearing the decks for an early election. They see him stuck with a long list of spending wishes and too little money to pay for them. So far his risky adventures have won him a seat in the Commons and got him the position of Prime Minister without having to spell out an agenda. He has changed very little that the previous Cabinet was doing. So why not throw the dice again, they ask. Others think he should soldier on as he has a good inherited majority, so why take the risk of throwing it all away? Backbenchers in marginals can see the current polls do not look good for them. I have no idea how they will decide this.
I have been offering him advice on how to manage the government better as I would like our government to be better run. I cannot give him advice on when to go to the country or what platform to stand on. I think the new Conservatives under Kemi offer a much better prospect of running things better. So instead I will sketch a campaign the Opposition can run were Mr Burnham to decide to bet on an early poll. It would give us a good opportunity to change government before more damage is done.
The first claim to make is it would be a cut and run election. It implies that if he waited so we could see his agenda for the next two years and his Plan for the next ten his popularity would decline. What is he hiding? Why doesn’t he set out his plan for government first? Why doesn’t he want to achieve some of his plan for government to show people it can work? Going early looks as if it is based on fear, not on bravery.
If he goes soon, cancelling the budget, the Opposition can say he did it to avoid the tax bombshell budget he has been planning. The Chancellor has refused to rule out yet more tax increases in the budget. We read of more people having to pay a so called Mansion tax, often on modest properties in London and dearer property areas. We see a big hike in capital gains tax given a good outing, a tax on enterprise and successful business. We await the new Tourist tax to be imposed by Mayors, another levy of maybe 5% on top of 20% VAT to cut jobs and close premises in the hospitality business. We read of bank taxes, more fossil fuel taxes and much else.
The Opposition can also say the early election is probably to tear up the old Manifesto pledges not to increase Income Tax, VAT and National Insurance. The Treasury will be telling the Chancellor there is a large black hole to fill and Mr Burnham will be demanding more spending. The Chancellor needs to fill in his own black hole created by his spending needs for defence. That will add to the fuel on the fire of the tax bombshell story.
Mr Burnham has indicated he wants a yet closer relationship with the EU and would like in due course to rejoin. This will alienate the majority who voted to leave, and the bigger majorities in polls who oppose the idea of more laws and taxes being imposed by the EU. The Opposition can expose the bad sell out deal Labour are planning in the so called Re set, which is all give and no take for the UK. We end up paying big bills, imposing bad laws and lose our ability to govern ourselves in important areas.
Above all the election allows the Opposition to expose the failure of the government to smash the gangs and to end illegal migration. The Home Secretary proposes an enquiry to study the problem. There is no need for study. We can all see the problem. The government will pay a heavy price for its lack of action. People are angry about the large payments to France when they escort the illegals into our waters. They are angry that the boat drivers are often not arrested, that the illegal migrants are not questioned about who they paid and how they heard about the boats. They are angry they are put up in hotels or former military accommodation with full access to public services often better than that allowed to the settle population. The issue is not where to house them but how to stop them coming and in such a dangerous way. Voters want changes to the law and better enforcement of our borders. All the time the numbers keep coming the governing party will struggle with an election.
So far inflation up, unemployment up, borrowing up, taxes up, government borrowing rates up, energy prices up, taxes up. Not the changes people wanted.
So bring the election on.
September 24, 2026
I do not expect a general election as he would be giving away his huge majority gifted to him by the dire climate alarmist, globalist, tax to death socialists Sunak and Hunt – six months early for some reason. Why Sunak?
So far inflation up, unemployment up, borrowing up, taxes up, government borrowing rates up, energy prices up, taxes up and red tape up, NI up and taxes on working people up (both breaching the manifesto promises), school fees up, the rich and hard working leaving figure up, the small boats not smashed (this not even attempted), tax take will this decline and the doom loop continues.
An election now will bring some dire socialist coalition. We have had quite enough net zero, pro EU socialism from John Major through to Burnham.
Yes Kemi is saying some of the right things. ( Inaccurate description of Conservative party deleted ed)
September 24, 2026
They all say the right things when in opposition, as they know that they are not obliged to implement them. Neat trick if you have the wit to see through the rouse 😉
Burnham and Labour know they are going to get tanked so, they will change the voting system. Not to so much keep them in power, that will come through the Mayoralties, but to keep them relevant.
September 24, 2026
Paying people in vouchers so they cannot buy alcohol etc. is an impractical idea – they will very easily get round that with a bit of bartering Kemi. Plus the current fashion is to shoplift rather than pay at all anyway. This encouraged by the police policy of of deterrents or doing nothing for thefts below circs £100 a time, not even turning up, not even worth the shop keepers ringing them so they do not. Thus “cutting” the crime figures!
September 24, 2026
Tony Blair is poking his nose in. He says UK should move to rejoin EU – regardless of public opinion !
September 24, 2026
I do not think he will not go to the Country, because he will have to tell even more lies on the present give away redistribution policy than Starmer in order to get elected.
Even if he did go and won, would the Bond Markets change their view, would our borrowing go down, would our taxes reduce , would our defence budget increase !
I think he will try and stick it out for as long as possible.
The tragedy of all of this is that he, and the Labour Party, were able to manipulate the system for him to become an MP and then Prime Minister (without a challenge) with less than 25,000 votes, and without a general election, hardly democratic
As far as the Conservatives go, they are still tainted by 14 years of failure, and whilst Kemmi is saying many of the right things do the rest of the members in the Party have the same thoughts.
The Country needs a drastic change of direction, are the Conservatives really going to offer such, as yet I simply do not see it !
Reply Yes Conservatives are offering a big change of direction starting with big reductions in welfare and effective bans on illegal migrants.The party is united on this.
September 24, 2026
Welcome, ction.
I agree with much of what you say. Burnham will be unwise to go to the country. He knows Labour’s current position is due to many Conservative voters turning their backs on this country.
“Beware the ides of (Theresa) May” 😉
September 24, 2026
YES
September 24, 2026
“Voters want changes to the law and better enforcement of our borders.”
We need real deterrents if you come illegally you will not be allowed to stay deterrents and yet the government deliver the complete reverse with endless inducements. For border controls and for crime in general.
Total central government grant spending for the broader refugee and migration charitable sector is approximately £256 million annually. Are these charities and the Border Force and RNLI taxi services not part of the gangs they promised to smash? They are certainly assisting the gangs and the government is paying them to do so. The French police too are clearly assisting. It is hardly smashing the gangs.
September 24, 2026
We have all the laws we need. What we lack is the will to use them.
September 24, 2026
@Mark B – exactly
September 24, 2026
Allister Heath today.
“People don’t realise how poor, backward and irrelevant Britain has become
A visit to booming Florida was simultaneously inspiring and a depressing reminder of how different the UK would be if it hadn’t moved Left”
(Inaccurate history of Thatcher’s reforms deleted ed)
September 24, 2026
TIM Shipman in the Spectator “The one great triumph of Johnson’s handling of the pandemic was setting up a separate vaccines taskforce outside the usual machinery of government.”
Boris and Sunak spent circa £600 billion on Covid vaccines and lockdowns that did vast net harms as is very clear indeed. Clear despite the government refusing to release the statistics. Vaccines even coerced into people with zero need for them health children and the young, people who had had Covid already… no need of them even had the vaccines been safe and effective.
Yet the usually sensible Tim Shipman thinks this was his one great trumph!
September 24, 2026
Mainly I think due to hapless Brexit negotiations and Covid splurging/bad handling. Now our kind host wishes to send these folk back into power! Please, no!!
September 24, 2026
Not convinced that anything I said was actually inaccurate.
I have voted Tory all my life with the sole exception of John Major second time when I voted UKIP. Only in my first vote in 1979 did I actually get a Tory MP – Sir Robert Rhodes James in Cambridge. Not much demand for Tory MPs in Bloomsbury, Highgate, Hampstead, Camden… At the 2024 GE in Cambridge Tories came 4th with just 12% of the vote. Rhodes James won 47% of the vote in 1979.
When will Kemi and Coutinho actually ditch rather than merely delay (like Sunak) May’s moronic net zero religion? She claims to be an engineer and Coutinho (a half math grad) must surely know the agenda is insane however much or little it is delayed?
Reply They will repeal our obligations/targets and go for cheap energy.
September 24, 2026
Despite our numerous problems – economic and political – the UK still is – easily – the best place to live on planet Earth (in terms of people, humour, countryside, culture, education, leisure, and all the other public-service perks we shouldn’t take for granted).
The UK is still a GREAT country. I really mean that. And great across the board, despite, again, economic and political problems (and that all countries in the West have from one degree to another).
Let’s never forget to enjoy what we have now!
Best.
September 24, 2026
Lastly, I’ve lived and travelled abroad to some amazing places. Had amazing times.
But I always love returning to the UK. And just an ordinary day here. Drizzling with rain. Listening to people having a good moan about something. Fish and chips. You don’t have to do something wild and fancy to have a great day here.
And people in England are reserved but so friendly once you break through. And extremely generous. And great sense of humour. Even in London, it’s easy to have a great conversation / chat with strangers. Just have to crack through the reserve, and you’re away.
September 24, 2026
The policies should change in response to the situation.Many voted to leave the EU thinking that the British would get immigration under control thereby managing our monies in a far better way.It didn’t happen.We are now left with overcrowding and a population of older people who only know the British way.
Thank God for our back gardens for like the Chinese it seems the future will be giant apartment buildings every where and tiny back to back detached boxes everywhere.Build more houses the construction industry says to line their pockets and impose a guilt complex on the powers that be to house the criminals arriving at our shore.They just take the Mick and laugh at us whilst we suffer.
So back to Burnham,,, he can’t change things but he is a more personable character in the media, I can’t see any reason now why we shouldn’t go back to the EU. Most of the other EU countries with coastlines are bombarded with people who by nature want more and more children, misogyny and a life not guided by commonsense and balance.We need people to think clearly about how they themselves could take responsibility and not look at religion to guide them .
Politics don’t happen without humans.Sociology and philosophy are two subjects to help all look deeper at problems.Remember restrictions on numbers of children in China.At least they had common sense.
September 24, 2026
“I can’t see any reason now why we shouldn’t go back to the EU.”
Then I suggest you read the report from economist Catherine McBride OBE on the EU reset. It will remove the rose-tinted glasses you seem to be wearing.
https://gbbc.uk/eu-reset-cost-britain/
September 24, 2026
‘Thank God for our back gardens for like the Chinese…….’
What on earth are you talking about? Or are you ignoring most Councils in England passing planning applications to knock down houses to build several, using gardens as the main asset in the plan? We certainly do not see gardens as sacrosanct.
September 24, 2026
As the USA celebrate the beatification of Fulton Sheen and enjoys the sanity and leadership of Pope Leo, the USA has to endure the premiership of President Trump. Go figure.
God bless and protect Trump – and the great country of the USA.
September 24, 2026
I don’t think Father Charles Coughlin is in line for beatification at the moment – but times change.
September 24, 2026
Priests come in all shapes and sizes, metaphorically-speaking (from truly awful ones – to the saints – and to the great scholars and thinkers – secular, not just theological)!
Vivaldi (Father Antonio Vivaldi) was a Catholic priest. Fra Angelico was a Catholic priest. Rabelais was a Catholic priest.
In literature, you have the priest (bishop) in Les Miserables is heroic (he shows compassion to Jean Valjean 0- the famous silver candle sticks incident).
And 13/14th century Father William of Oxford University behind Okham’s Razor (played significant role in modern scientific and philosophical reasoning). It is believed Copernicus was a Catholic priest.
Then the priest Father Jean Meslier who is the first celebrity atheist in history (although posthumously atheist – the Richard Dawkins of 18th century!)
Then you have the holy and devout Ss Peter and Paul – both priests.
And Father Gregor Mendel (the founder of modern genetics) and Father Georges Lemaître (the main founder of the Big Bang theory).
And ‘Father’ is just a term of respect (like in old days, people used to call their dad, ‘father’) – a priest is just a spiritual father. Nothing more. Btw, The Church considers all baptist people priests (but not to the same degree as an ordained priest).
And Christ is The Priest (and Prophet and King).
September 24, 2026
Most definitely not. Mr Burnham knew what he was inheriting when he stood to be elected MP and oust Starmer as Prime Minister, a neat little arrangement stitched up by Labour MP’s and their party with precious little democracy! The last thing our country needs now is an election. We have serious economic problems, a major illegal immigration problem, law and order issues and local authorities failing to keep essential services functioning. Add to this the ongoing conflict in Ukraine that urgently needs to end and a major crisis in Iran causing us serious economic problems. Netanyahu and Trump bear responsibility for starting the Iran war and Trump’s predecessors along with the EU certainly bear responsibility for provoking Russia with the 2014 coup in Kiev. Remember, the Ukraine conflict is actually about Ukraine joining NATO because Russia view this as an existential threat. Burnham needs to address these major issues rather than seeking advantage for himself and his party by putting the country and it’s people first and show leadership.
September 24, 2026
Really? With reform and the Conservatives fighting in every seat, hundreds of newly elected MPs will be Labour or libdem leftists when they could have been right of centre reform or Conservative. Then there’s Restore with about 3% of the vote but enough to stop reform getting elected in many marginals. Burnham could win with 23% of the vote on a low turnout, ie get re-elected with a working majority with the support of say 13 or 14% of the adult population. He can surely rely on that given the number of people now in the public sector and on benefits.
If the right continues to form a circular firing squad an election surely means another Labour govt. Which is why burnham might well go for it.
September 24, 2026
Good morning.
If we have learnt any thing from elections, it is they change nothing, no matter who you vote for.
Elections are called by the party in power only when they are likely to get a majority return. Otherwise, they hang on to dear life until the last minute, just as John Major did.
As Sir John Ratcliffe has stated – We need a strong government to make the changes needed to save the country. None of the main parties have leaders who have got what it takes.
September 24, 2026
The insults being chucked at sir Jim Ratcliffe by the left are unbelievable. He surely ranks as one of the greatest UK industrial entrepreneurs in history. Imagine if we had more Jim Ratcliffes and fewer woke leftist blobites! We could of course have that. A low tax, light regulation, free trade, cheap energy economy – and Jim Ratcliffes would appear as if by magic.
September 24, 2026
Yes, Jim not John. My mistake 🤭
September 24, 2026
Burnham needs to be given enough rope to hang himself, so an early election will allow him to take advantage of a split on the right and possibly get a new mandate but at the loss of 150 or more seats
September 24, 2026
Our Andeh, like Teresa May will only go to the polls if he thinks he can win. Andeh needs to win big too as otherwise he is giving away a huge majority.
Having a smaller majority might make it easier to govern and keep back benchers in line but would provide a loser narrative so can’t be allowed.
There will be no General Election, he will be beaten by his back benchers when he tries to actually govern rather than produce crowd pleasing small measures and we will continue to stagnate.
This is the life of a modern party leader – trying to please the electorate by buying them with reducing amounts of available funds.
Too much money is spaffed on public sector pensions and public sector wages. And that is before we start to look at costs of funding poor immigrants of both legal and illegal origin and our perpetually sick workforce.
We need a major politician not a mayor politician.
September 24, 2026
He can carry on until 2029, with the economic state of the country progressively declining, and be voted out then.
He can call an election on the platform of raising taxes and be roundly booted out by the electorate.
He will soldier on.
What he really wants is to replace the loony left activist backbenchers with slightly left of centre MPs, but he can’t have that.
September 24, 2026
I can’t see Burnham placing enough confidence in the polls to call an early election.
By hook and by crook he made it to become PM and while the bounce is fading quickly his popularity can only be seen as a vague concept and cannot be counted on.
Yes, he seems to be Starmer version-2, without any original ideas – a new manifesto will not change that as he doesn’t have the capacity for anything better. A fresh set of promises to be broken at the earliest time will just allow more taxation. So, yes, he will hang on to the last moment praying for a vote of sympathy.
As more and more voters get fed up with his inept announcements and actions, Kemi will have a great time at PMQ’s. In the meantime his Foreign Secretary, wrecking international relationships, will deepen the depths of antisemitism in this country and show the labour party up for what they are.
September 24, 2026
The ‘Extremist Left’ anti UK party’s seem more organised and cohesive,with political religious support even though being short on pure numbers. Where as the ‘centre’ the pro-UK faction is all over the place and fragmented as they are not a pure religion the numbers are short and probably like last time the motivation isn’t there.
September 24, 2026
If Burnham loses the election he would probably be written off as leader by the Labour party too, to return to being the mayor of some town.
September 24, 2026
It seems the 2026 agreement with France waters down the 2023 agreement, in 2023 Sunak and Macron explicitly agreed to “increase the interception rate and drastically reduce the number of crossings year on year.” The declaration also described the long-term shared goal as stopping the route altogether. Now the agreement is input not as outcome based.
It will “reduce the number of illegal Channel crossings”, increase personnel by 53%, deploy specialist units and technology, and evaluate the effectiveness of new measures. The £161m flexible element can be redirected if measures do not produce sufficient results. But the published announcement does not repeat the 2023 undertaking to “drastically reduce” crossings year on year.
This weakens the performance commitment. Why did the UK government agree to this rather than enforcing the agreement we had already in place? If France did not deliver what they have committed to, we have many other levers, a -7.5bn trade balance is just one of them, shades of yes minister and the euro sausage?
September 24, 2026
781 illegals arrived by small boat yesterday ….no one saw them coming
September 24, 2026
This isn’t going to stop. It wouldn’t even stop if, as the Left suggest, we open more safe and legal routes. This is because these migrants are getting better treatment/a better deal than either the indigenous population or any new, legal migrants. The government have even told us that the rights of illegal migrants take precedence over everyone else. They get everything for free plus the freedom to roam our streets and take black market/non-taxable jobs undercutting the legal population. If the government are unable to control our borders the very least they can do would be to give these illegals tents and keep them locked up in enclosed encampments to protect the local population and provide at least some form of disincentive to make the Channel crossing. But they won’t. They want unidentified illegal migrants in every postcode.
September 24, 2026
I believe that is a daily record?
September 24, 2026
At the end of the day, Burnham will bottle out of calling an election. He has already shown how weak and ineffective he is. A serious PM would have spent the last 2 months locked in a room with his Chancellor, working out what spending to cut, what taxes to cut to stimulate the economy, and how to change the perception they are another socialist tax-and-spend government.
There will be an election before 2029, but it will be caused by a financial disaster.
September 24, 2026
Yet again Elon’s tweet today cuts through the nonsense to ask the key question on everyone’s mind.
In his latest one why the British government is doing nothing about the massive influx of people by boat along the south coast.
September 24, 2026
It seems to me we have many of the same issues as were listed in the Great Remonstrance of 1641. Namely – not enough money to fund an effective navy to prevent pirates from Tunisia raiding the south coast, a two tier judiciary and dodgy underhand dealings with Europe not supported by the population.
Of course that was the starting point for the long and bloody civil war. Let us hope that some of the History Graduates amongst our MPs spot this before it us too late.