The Chancellor was probably told not to give anything away about the budget. His task was to keep repeating the tired mantra that he will stick by the Reeves fiscal rules. These are said to be tight. Instead Reeves relaxed the rules she inherited.
As the rules relate to a forecast of the finances in three years they have little real bite. The control year never comes, as the targets are rolled forward a year every year. The Chancellor can pretend decisions for Year 3 offering tighter spending which will not happen. For 16 years we have had variants of these “ tough” fiscal rules. Our state debt has climbed to new and worrying heights.
It is also nonsense to say the Chancellor must not pre empt the budget.The Chancellor and PM can and do make financial commitments in the run up. Mr Burnham spends his time announcing new spending proposals. The government ruled out any increases in the three main taxes in its election Manifesto. This Chancellor should have ruled out more taxes on business for this budget. Instead like Reeves before he has opted for endless hints of tax rises to come. That is a great way to defer and cancel investments, put off job hiring , driving people out of the country as tax exiles. This is not the way to speed growth and get people back into work.
As to re industrialisation he is not even taking the necessary steps to arrest the collapse of much manufacturing. The bans on oil,gas and petrol car manufacture are doing huge damage. Sky high energy prices made higher by sky high energy taxes are closing down so much high energy using industry. Announcing a few more defence contracts does not save our chemical, engineering and manufacturing factories from being destroyed by dear energy and high taxes.
September 29, 2026
The global bond market is in disarray as bond prices keep falling after breaching two-decade lows. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield recently exceeded 5.5% and the Treasury Long-Bond ETF set another record low at 78.8. That’s a decline of 14% since late October 2025. New bond yield highs and new lows for bond prices were seen in Germany, Japan, and the UK
For the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond, the story is just plain horrible. Imagine having $1m in “safe” U.S. Treasury bonds earning 1.4% six years ago. After collecting meagre interest of $14,000 per year, your $1m is now worth just $430,000!
It would appear that foreign holders of US sovereign government debt are selling, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent forced to do the buying.
This is not going to end well. Folk who invest their capital in debt for the yield are having to take huge cuts in capital value, as interest rates continue higher, while the smart money is taking advantage of volatility in the gold price – and buying more. An alternative to debt is gold, regardless that it provides no yield – China is on track to import 1,700 tonnes of gold in 2026
There has to be a breaking point. If US interest rates approach 7%, watch out below
Reply Yes, I have often set out the big losses you get in long bonds when interest rates go up. Why no mention of UK bonds, still with the highest rates of interest and the lowest prices of the advanced nations? Markets distrust this government’s lack of spending and borrowing control.
September 29, 2026
Of which I believe the UK Government has a large holding.
September 29, 2026
Healers speech was a non event as with much else spoken at the conference. One thing of interest was Mahmood laying out plans for fast track immigration particularly Afghan and Palestinian women. The country is overrun and she wants to add to that. No doubt each will have at least 18 family members with a right to family life.
The decline of this country continues apace as does the 2 tier justice system.
September 29, 2026
Question : why buy up the bonds. Is that not just paying twice for your debt? Why not just let the bonds sit in the markets and let them expire?
September 29, 2026
The markets rightly distrust everything about this appalling government it’s whole deluded anti growth agenda. 180 degree out on every single issue. Tax, red tape, net zero, energy, employment, housing, schools, universities, borders, defence…
The Chancellors pathetic speech was delivered in a John Healy tie signed by the disaster Gordon Brown after he had borrowed it for one of his speeches (no return to boom and bust and post-neoclassical endogenous growth theory perhaps). Brown sold the gold, destroyed private pensions, wrecked the economy, gave us the vast banking crash, bottled his election… see the excellent book Gordon in a moron.
Healey in between his pathetic platitudes did say he wanted fiscal responsibility, to increase the size of the cake and wanting to grow the economy but every Labour policy is anti-growth, is for fiscal incontinence and for doom loop kill the tax base lunacy.
September 29, 2026
The prime minister will it seems today us that a new publicly owned company, branded Great British Grid, will speed up connections to the grid by driving up competition for connection projects.
Burnham is expected to put the proposals at the heart of a new goal to bring UK energy costs in line with other nations in Europe within ten years.
Can we have them in line with the US or China please with fracking, drilling, mining, more nuclear and un-rigged energy markets.
Our current agenda of moving to renewables, heat pumps, a massive grid expansion, battery storage, EVs, Carbon Capture is an idiotic agenda as any good, honest & sensible physicist or engineer can explain. Kathryn Porter for example.
MOVING from a hub and spoke grid to a mesh grid net connecting to millions of remote solar and wind sources to consumers will mean an investment costing about 200 times what the current grid does. It will also need vast extra wind day capacity for heating and huge winter back when insufficient wind (most days in reality). The policy is engineering, defensives, anti-growth and economic lunacy.
September 29, 2026
Labour has a “moral duty” to act against the country’s rising benefits bill, John Healey has said as he promised to get more young people off benefits.
Indeed it is John but everything Reeves, Burnham and Starmer did (tax and no increases, min wages, employees rights bill, net zero, abolition of non doms, the attacks or farmers and trading companies with IHT … has caused the complete reverse of this Healey. Your speech praised them all.
So will he undo all of this vandalism?
September 29, 2026
@Reply – surely UK bonds as with high energy leavies/subsidies and taxes dont count….
September 29, 2026
Good morning.
Let us hope that today’s missive gets posted 😉
A smart move. He then can blame her when it all goes pop ! He also does not actually have to do much which, given our current state, might be the wisest thing. I mean, he can only make things far worse.
There are literally tens, if not hundreds of billions that can be saved. We just need the right people. People who know that, they may not be voted back into office, but the nationhave taken a
September 29, 2026
For some reason the above got posted
. . . but the nation has taken a step back from the precipice.
September 29, 2026
Nobody is going to deny that UK interest rates and borrowing costs are very high.
Independent energy regulators OFGEM and climate analysis body Carbon Brief point out that the UK’s primary manufacturing vulnerability (particularly ceramics and chemicals) is exposure to the global gas market.
The UK electricity market operates on a system where the most expensive form of power needed to meet demand – usually “natural” gas – sets the price for all electricity. Therefore, high electricity costs are directly tied to expensive fossil fuel imports (particularly gas) rather than renewable generation
The major reason why UK firms pay more than European counterparts for their energy is how Sunak’s administration distributed policy and network exemptions to British industry.
Germany and France exempt heavy industries from grid transmission and network charges, absorbing state costs to artificially keep factories globally competitive. In other words, they subsidise energy costs. So do Belgium, Poland, Italy and Spain
Data from Make UK (and Ecotricity) highlight a pro-renewables consensus, Nearly 75% of British manufacturers see renewable power as the ultimate path to achieving cheap, stable, and locally insulated energy.
Reply Not true. Gas even with a carbon tax is cheaper. Renewable require payments for stand by power and often have guaranteed high prices.
September 29, 2026
More bovine excrement from SG. Where do they get this nonesense from.
September 29, 2026
Indeed Ian.
You only have to look at your home gas and electricity bills, to see that gas is several times cheaper per KwH than electricity.
September 29, 2026
Is it true that Britain produces so much surplus electricity we pay France, Ireland and Holland (£770 million pa for France) to take it off our hands, via sea cables, so that our power system functions well? I think it was the Telegraph I read that
September 29, 2026
Actually we buy at inflated rates through the undersea cables and rarely reverse supply – mainly to Ireland, as part of the EU. As a general rule we require 20% of our demand that we cannot satisfy so we buy.
September 29, 2026
Not sure about that but most of what we export is at a loss to the grid. Excess wind exported for £25 per mwh when renewable operators are being paid circa £150.
September 29, 2026
Sakara where do you get this cut and paste drivel from? You really do need to try to understand the physics, economics, the engineering realities of energy generation, grid stability and grid costs issues, seasonal variations and storage and not just cut and paste this largely deluded drivel without much understanding.
September 29, 2026
SG: “The UK electricity market operates on a system where the most expensive form of power needed to meet demand – usually “natural” gas – sets the price for all electricity. Therefore, high electricity costs are directly tied to expensive fossil fuel imports (particularly gas) rather than renewable generation.”
Nonsense:
This is the chart which shows that for electricity generation the weighted average CfD price is £152.22/MWhr whilst for gas (the market reference price) it is £85.10:
https://www.cfd-hub.com/
The LCCC (Low Carbon Contracts Company) website shows the amount of subsidy we are paying for the electricity from our Chinese supplied renewables as a result of the wholesale electricity price (the market reference price = that for gas generated electricity) being below that of renewables:
https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/scheme-dashboards/cfd-historical-data-dashboard/
Only for 3 quarterly periods in 2021/22 when Russia invaded Ukraine have renewables been cheaper than gas.
Both show our electricity would be cheaper without renewables and this is without taking into account all the additional system costs of grid stability, grid upgrades and backup caused by chaotic intermittency plus that there is a carbon tax on the gas.
You need to widen your reading away from Carbon Brief.
September 29, 2026
SG:
Carbon Brief use the DESNZ LCOE (Levelised Cost of Electricity) calculations to compare the costs of various types of electricity generation. But this metric does not include all the wider system costs of chaotically intermittent generation and I quote paragraph 1.23 from the NAO’s report on Sizewell C:
“DESNZ’s modelling shows that the greater cost of generation [of Sizewell C] is outweighed by other benefits, and it expects SZC to reduce the overall cost to consumers compared with renewables. It believes standard metrics such as the equivalent strike price and levelised cost of electricity do not allow for a reasonable comparison between the cost to consumers of electricity from SZC as they do not capture wider system costs associated with intermittent generation, such as transmission costs, reserve generation capacity and other balancing services.”
Even DESNZ realise the huge additional costs caused by intermittency, unless of course the plan is for us to live with rolling blackouts when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun is not shining (every night in the UK BTW).
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/sizewell-c.pdf
September 29, 2026
High-ranking Kremlin officials have effectively rejected the recent US-Ukrainian proposed limited energy ceasefire and continue to reiterate Russia’s unwillingness to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations. Source; ISW
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated “absolutely” in response to a question on whether Western energy ceasefire proposals are a rhetorical exercise, effectively rejecting US President Donald Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire by both sides of long-range strikes on energy infrastructure
The war criminal Putin, eager for another bilateral meeting with Trump to carve up Ukraine in the absence of Zelenskyy, immediately started his usual tactic of employing “preconditions” before any such meeting can take place. The first of which is that Putin will only meet with Zelenskyy in Moscow!
Putin’s statements demonstrate his continued unwillingness to accept any diplomatic ceasefire, or peace proposals on any terms that fall short of fulfilling Russia’s maximalist demands of Ukraine’s complete capitulation and surrender to Russia’s demands. Despite the failure of his “summer offensive” which has resulted in the Ukrainian liberation of 150 square km of occupied territory in the Donbas, Lyman and Zaphorizia sectors
The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Russian milbloggers are simultaneously doubling down on baseless claims that Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian forces in various sectors of the frontline. Likely as part of the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare campaign, to portray Ukrainian defences as collapsing in preparation for the mass mobilisation of Russian 18yo conscripts this autumn
ISW have refuted these claims; the Russians are being forced back with heavy losses, particularly in the Lyman sector. These intensified claims of encirclement come as Ukrainian forces have made significant advances in priority sectors of the frontline and likely aim to distract from the Ukrainian successes for domestic consumption
September 29, 2026
Two reasons…Putin is very concerned that he would be assassinated outside Russia, and that Zelensky would suffer some mishap like a ‘Ukrainian’ missile blowing up his aircraft going to or from Russia.
September 29, 2026
Back to reality. The Russians will not agree a ceasefire because they know that the Europeans and American hawks will use the opportunity to rearm Ukraine. They have blocked Black Sea ports and routes via Romania and Ukraine exports of grain have stopped. Railways are unable to carry exports as locomotives have been targeted. Petrol stations and electricity grid are destroyed. Following the huge drone attack on Moscow during the election a huge drone and missile attack on all industries around Kiev has destroyed the capacity to manufacture weapons. Putin is not the most military Russian politician. Others are calling for direct retaliation on European factories which supply Ukraine. The UK could lose electricity and gas supplies in days if the Russians cut cables pipelines and targeted LNG terminals and ships. Winter in Ukraine will be hell. Half their population has left. They are recruiting women, boys and old men to fight. All this because some western politicians wanted to weaken and change Russia. Putin has just been re-ele.cted.
September 29, 2026
“Ukraine can still prevail in its conflict against Russia and it must prevail,” says Kimberley Kagan, President of the ISW, which is your source, SG. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=633252218882947
Perhaps you should find an impartial source next time.
September 29, 2026
Anyone who bought a 30 year bond at 1.4% would have bought it with the intention of holding it to term as part of a balanced portfolio (possible one mandated by Basel III framework) as there was no way any return would ever have been delivered.
When governments can’t afford prevailing interest rates they have two choice – print and debase the currency further leading to more inflation or stop spending and possibly cause a recession.
Neither option is good but the reckoning is coming and governments have spent too much in pursuit of votes
September 29, 2026
John Healy has become the poster child of fickle politicians with his principled resignation followed by careerist promotion.
Access to welfare must be curtailed, let it rise by average earnings less 1% for five years and restrict to whom it is paid, perhaps also reduce the pension credit where people have not paid in enough to earn a state pension. I do favour tieing pensions to average earnings (pensions not being welfare but a contributory return) not for fiscal rules but for equality with the workforce.
I do hope that John Healy takes on the subjects that have been ignored for too long like defined benefit public sector pensions schemes. Hiding behind the “fully funded” screen. They are fully funded because they have 29% employer (tax payer) contributions. Huge annual savings available here and in benefits for immigrants.
Come back Mr Healy when you have reduced costs of immigrants, pension credit, pubic sector pensions and net zero costs. Then I might point you to health sector and government.
September 29, 2026
Healy is telling people in his party to place people into work; the only work that will be created is in the public sector (or State-dependent private offshoots like Serco, Capita, etc.), which means National Service (Sunak’s plan). Perhaps the new care plan is to push people into care jobs. Would that be all kids aged 18, or just NEETs? I wonder.
September 29, 2026
He was playing to the balcony and trying to make ‘us’ believe that there was some hope for the future thanks to labour’s policies – in this he failed miserably.
He didn’t give anyone a warm feeling that his budget would improve anything. His “rebirth” funding for union learning advisers is a disgrace. No doubt he wants to give something back to the Unions for financially supporting labour, but it will do nothing to help the economy. He wants to see union rep’s everywhere, including on the BoE board! That in itself will destroy innovation.
Speaking for those who see the unions as the enemy of good work relationships, allowing unions more power and more ability to influence decisions is a step too close to communism.
The unions may have been a useful force in previous centuries, but now that are an obstacle to growth and security – So, NO, Mr Healey, we don’t want more unions in our lives, running things and making policy like they did when Wilson was in charge! Just look at how that turned out.
September 29, 2026
Where are his SMART targets. A business proposing growth has to say we will increase our direct sales by 15% by Q4 this year with this extra money. Then employees and shareholders know exactly what success looks like to boost motivation. Hope soundbites won’t cut it.
September 29, 2026
I have come to a simple ratio of Labour job creation versus job destruction and it is 10 to 1.
The ratio is valid whether you look at manufacturing jobs in detail of the Net Zero policy in the round.
While that energy policy is progressed then there are ten jobs lost for every one created.
It does not look like anything other than continued National destruction to me.
The other bizarre policy Labour are progressing is population increase via immigration?
Does anyone know why they want to do that? What is the upside of an overpopulated resource denied country?
What am I missing?
September 29, 2026
Immigrant and benefits voting….is it that difficult to understand?
September 29, 2026
Their voting base is anarchists who wish the destruction of British culture.
September 29, 2026
Judging by the collection of misfits at the Labour Conference Dave, I would say it is mission accomplished.
September 29, 2026
You are right that all government economic predictions just roll forward. For example the BoE’s prediction of inflation in 2-3 years time is *always* 2% but in fact CPI has only been 2% for a handful of months in the past 10 years. It’s not a proper prediction, it’s just the BoE’s target.
September 29, 2026
It is a real puzzle that the Chancellor, the PM, and other Labour Ministers, who are supposed to be intelligent, seem so blind to reality and so lacking in common sense.
It is not difficult to get the UK economy growing: cut government spending and reduce taxes! Yet they all seem to want to do the exact opposite and increase both.
Have we ever had such a low-calibre government?
All the Labour conference does is confirm what a bunch of 3rd-raters they all are. Ed Miliband is the perfect example of someone who should never have any government position. His speech yesterday was all about how great he is, in his own opinion. How much more damage will he do as Foreign Secretary, after all the damage he has done with his blind belief in Net Zero?
September 29, 2026
But his People did share with us yesterday “Orders for three floating dry docks, worth £6bn, to maintain the Royal Navy’s nuclear-powered submarine” that he authorised as spending of hard-earned taxpayer money with the ‘Spanish Goverment’ for them to organise.
Again this money being ejected from the UK economy, never to return, never to circulate and grow it – the false economics of socialisum
September 29, 2026
The theme appears to be, lets spend more on Nationalisation as it gives us more money to throw away. Go figure. Lets spend more money on creating a new energy grid it will allow the UK Government to align its prices with the EU(the only criteria) – no suggestion that it is only the UK’s Parliaments energy levies and subsidies that have created energy at 400% dearer than the Countries competitors
September 29, 2026
A £100 million will be taken from the Taxpayer to fund Appentaship scheme’s. To replace the jobs Labour stole with thier tax raids. Once qualified, the funding stops, and employers because of the tax burden cant employ them.
Fudge after fudge to hide the ability think beyond the tyronny that tax is good
September 29, 2026
All that Burnham can talk about is stopping the state pension triple lock. He and the cowardly mainstream media never say anything about civil service pensions, which are completely unaffordable, and must be cut now.
Why is the destruction of private worker pensions by Gordon Brown, never mentioned by the BBC and other cowardly mainstream media.
September 29, 2026
Triple lock first to go.
Then mean testing.
Possible NI charges on pensions. Certainly the new Social care tax on pensions. All that squirriling away to save tax will be taken.
September 29, 2026
@MWB – exactly because of that. The again it is the Socialist and proteced Labour voter that has to be inslated from logic
September 29, 2026
I know a number of rock stars who have many houses around the UK, it is relatively common for them to have a place in London, a place in the countryside, somewhere in Scotland, somewhere near where they grew up. I know a few who still have their parents old house maintained, despite their parents being dead many years ago. As well. of course, as houses abroad.
That is what people who get success, and a lot of money, do.
The Labour approach of seeking to confiscate such properties is laughable, what is the end goal? cause such people to move (with their tax contributions) abroad? Have big legal battles with people who can afford big legal teams?
Or is it just the “little people” who only have a small flat in the town where they work, and a family home where their kids go to school (and needs to be more stable and not move every time a job changes), that the Labour party are going to confiscate from? Or the people struggling to sell their dead relatives property? Or the people running a barely breaking even holiday rental property?
I am fascinated where stealing houses from people comes from in the mindset of leftists.
September 29, 2026
it is almost as if Burnham is embarking on the slow march to a pseudo communist state.Without question this
is the worst LABOUR administration ever.I nearly found myself wishing Starmer was still in charge.
September 29, 2026
It doesn’t feel slow to me having lived through several horrors of ‘socialist’ administration. This one is moving into a sprint.